Showing posts with label chance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label chance. Show all posts
December 24, 2013
February 2, 2013
Paul Nicholls: Of my Saturday runners, Keppols Hill has a great chance
Paul Nicholls on Keppols Hill:
"I would like to think he will go close to winning as everything appears in his favour, even though it is clearly a competitive little race."
Betfair Ambassador Paul Nicholls speaks frankly about the five horses he's sending out today...
13:30 Ffos Las - Sydney Melbourne
Showed fairly decent staying form on the Flat in 2010, and plenty of promise on his only hurdle start two seasons ago. Was off the course for the best part of two years with a leg injury before making his debut for us at Taunton in December, where I thought he would need the run and probably find the going too testing, all his form previously having been on good ground. So he delighted me with his second there, even if the form of the race is nothing to shout home about. Will hopefully show the benefit of that outing here today. But there are plenty of unexposed and exciting bumper and point winners in here against him.
13:50 Sandown - Toubab
I am sure that this horse has races in him off his current mark, but things haven't fallen his way in recent starts - though there was certainly nothing wrong with his second to Sprinter Sacre at Aintree in April. The problem we have for him at the moment is that he is essentially a good ground horse but we can't keep on holding him back for better going because it doesn't look like materialising for the foreseeable future, does it? So in the circumstances I thought he shaped promisingly on his reappearance in heavy ground over 2m1f in the heavy at Ascot, tiring from 2 out after travelling well. It could be a similar story today but, like I said, I think he is on a fair mark.
15:00 Sandown - Gwanako
Is another who probably wants better ground, but he goes well fresh and goes well here, so let's see how he gets on. He has recorded two wins over 2m5f in hunter chases here and James Cowley, on board for the first of those successes, takes the ride.
15:35 Sandown - Keppols Hill
Should really have been unbeaten this season but finally came good at Chepstow last time where he beat Arthurian Legend by 2 ¾ lengths. The form of that race may not amount to a great deal - the runner-up ran poorly at Wincanton on Thursday - but he jumped really well there and Ruby thought he won with a bit in hand. This is one horse of mine who will not be unsuited by the testing conditions and I think a mark of 136 gives us something to work with; in fact, I would like to think he will go close to winning as everything appears in his favour, even though it is clearly a competitive little race.
16:20 Ffos Las - Toby Lerone
Winning pointer who has basically been disappointing in his three hurdle to starts to date, though he did look the likely winner when falling 3 out at Chepstow in December and the step back to 2m3f was not ideal at Exeter last time. The return to 3m will be more in his favour.
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August 8, 2012
The Big Wednesday Multiple: The Magnificent 7.11 chance
"We kick off the multiple in the Uefa Champions League as take on in the third qualifying round. The first leg between the pair ended in a 0-3 win for the Swedish side and I can see no reason why they won’t record another victory at home this afternoon."
It's that time of the week for the big Wednesday multiple as Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. After a couple of near misses recently, can he get all four up today? Here are his selections.
Bet 1: Helsingborgs (HOME) @ 1.75/7
We kick off the multiple in the Uefa Champions League as Helsingborgs take on Slask Wroclaw in the third qualifying round. The first leg between the pair ended in a 0-3 win for the Swedish side and I can see no reason why they won't record another victory at home this afternoon.
Åge Hareide is in charge till the end of 2012 after previous manager Conny Karlsson resigned and he has made a cracking start in his attempt to get The Reds through to the group stages for the first time since the year 2000. They completely dominated the first leg in Poland and while they don't need to win today to progress, I can't see them playing negatively and it would be a huge surprise if Slask Wroclaw got anything from the game.
1.75/7 seems like a very good price to me and I expect Helsingborgs to complete their sixth home victory out of seven in all competitions.
Bet 2: NK Maribor (AWAY) @ 1.664/6
We stay in the Champions League for our away victory today as Slovenia's NK Maribor take a 4-1 lead over to Luxembourg for their second leg with the wonderfully named, F91 Dudelange.
The match in Slovenia was a complete procession for Maribor and they were 3-0 up by the 50 minute mark. Like the opening selection in our multiple, Maribor don't need to win to progress, but what fills me with confidence about this bet that is that they faced the exact same scenario in the previous round; winning 4-1 at home before going on to complete a 2-1 away victory.
Their form on the road is top notch; undefeated in 12 in all competitions, winning nine of them, and while they are quite short at 1.664/6 here, I think it's still value.
Bet 3: IA Akranes v Fylkir (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.558/15
This week's likely goal fest comes from Iceland as IA Akranes take on Fylkir in the Urvalsdeild. These pair sit ninth and fifth in the table respectively. However, in the average goals per game table they sit fifth and fourth.
IA's matches are averaging 3.38 goals per 90 minutes and six of their seven home fixtures so far this season have gone over 2.5. They haven't just been scraping over either, five have gone over 3.5, three over 4.5 and the match against FH at the end of June actually went over 8.5 goals.
Fylkir aren't too far behind in the goal stakes as their games are averaging 3.15 goals each time. Four of their six away fixtures have had three goals or more this campaign, and I'm not sure what it is about FH, but similarly to today's opponents, their match with them in June went over 7.5.
Bet 4: Real Garcilaso v Uni Cesar Vallejo (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.625/8
Completely in contrast to the third leg of our multiple, Real Garcilaso against Uni Cesar Vallejo looks like a tight, low-scoring affair on paper. These two sit third and second in the Peruvian Primera Division respectively and the atmosphere should be tense and nervy as they are both in contention for the league title with just two games to go.
Garcilaso have seen six of their last seven go under 2.5 goals as the season reaches its climax, and seven of their last eight at home have followed suit, with Freddy García Loayza's men keeping six clean sheets in the process, which is a fabulous effort for a club who are newly promoted to the division.
Uni Cesar Vallejo are just a single point ahead of Garcilaso and level on points with Sporting Cristal at the top. The key to their success has been their defence and they've conceded an average of less than one goal per game. On the road, their last eight fixtures have all had two goals or less, firing three blanks but keeping four clean sheets.
Recommended Multiple
Back Helsingborgs @ 1.75/7; Back NK Maribor @ 1.66; Back Over 2.5 Goals in IA Akranes v Fylkir @ 1.558/15; Back Under 2.5 Goals in Real Garcilaso v Uni Cesar Vallejo @ 1.625/8; The Multiple pays approximately 7.11n/a
Multiple prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.
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March 28, 2012
Push 'em Provides Chance to Sharpen Short-Stacked Strategy
Poker Strategy 
/ Short-Stacked Shamus / 28 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
In a Push 'em game, ace-eight will likely be among the range of hands with which you'll be making those all-in shoves.
While clearly more of a gambling game than regular no-limit hold’em, Push ‘em will provide opportunities to employ some strategy and thus give an edge to players who can smartly play their short stacks.
There's a new game debuting on Betfair Poker this week called Push 'em, a variant designed to provide action in a hurry. A no-limit hold'em cash game, Push 'em requires players to buy in for exactly five big blinds -- no more, no less -- making the chances of facing an all-in confrontation soon after sitting down quite high. While certainly not as complicated strategy-wise as typical no-limit hold'em, there are a few ideas to keep in mind that can improve one's chances of leaving a Push 'em session a winner.
Push 'em will be offered at a variety of limits at Betfair, from $0.05/$0.10 up to $5/$10, with all Push 'em games being six-handed. For example, when sitting down at a $0.25/$0.50 Push 'em table, you'll be buying in for exactly $2.50, with no option to buy in for more or less. In other words, you can go ahead and give all players my nickname -- "Short-Stacked" -- when they start their Push 'em sessions.
One necessary modification from typical NLHE strategy will be to open up one's starting hand requirements considerably. Since folding even one orbit's worth of hands will cost almost a third of your stack (1.5 BBs), it's likely you'll need to choose a hand quickly with which to push your chips in the middle.
That's not to say you can't follow a few broad principles of hand selection and even employ some other strategic thinking in Push 'em.
Pocket pairs
Pocket pairs only come around once every 17 hands or so, which usually means if you are dealt one, you will have the best hand preflop. In Push 'em you should be ready to commit your stack of 5 BBs whenever dealt a pocket pair, either by open-raising all in or calling others' shoves.
Even if you are dealt the lowly 2-2 and someone has shoved ahead of you, it's going to be worth calling with your 5 BBs. Against a random hand, pocket deuces generally rates a tad over 50% to win, and even against the wide range of raising hands in Push 'em -- say any pocket pair, A-x, K-x, and Q-x -- PokerStove tells us 2-2 is still going to be close to even money to win by the river.
Any ace, king, queen
You're going to be glad to pick up big cards in Push 'em, including any ace, king, or queen.
Most players will probably be comfortable shoving with any ace or king, although some might hesitate before committing with Q-x. However, if no one has opened the pot and you are dealt Q-x, it is probably worth a push given the probability you'll have the preflop edge. Obviously a call in this spot will likely mean you'll be behind with five cards to come, but more often than not callers will hold A-x, K-x, or pairs from J-J to 2-2 and your queen will still be live (if not your kicker, too).
I would consider pushing with a queen, though I would hesitate before calling with all but the better Q-x hands (e.g., Qs-Js). With an ace or king, though, I'm going to call with my stack of five BBs.
Suitedness
Not long ago we were discussing the significance of suitedness in no-limit hold'em. One of the ways suited cards have value is as drawing hands, with a flopped flush draw potentially giving a player extra leverage after flop. However, since essentially all of the decision-making in Push 'em is going to occur preflop, there will be fewer opportunities to take advantage of having flopped a draw.
Thus while suitedness does add a few percentage points to your hand's value, pushing with 7s-5s shouldn't seem that much more of an option to you than going all in with 7d-5c. Like small connectors, suitedness really is more of a concern in games where there are post-flop decisions to be made -- likely not the case in Push 'em.
Position
The significance of position will be relatively minimized in Push 'em thanks to the fact that players are essentially reduced to the single all-in raise move before the flop. Without post-flop play, position will only matter once -- not four times like in hold'em hands that aren't decided before the river.
I wouldn't place that great an importance on the difference between an all-in push from the player sitting under the gun and one from the guy on the button, although pay attention to your opponents as some will allow their position to dictate just how wide they'll go with their opening ranges.
Hands that get folded around to the cutoff or button will present opportunities for blind steals for players in those seats. The player in the small blind may want to open his raising range a little further, too, should the entire table fold before it is his turn to act. And with the stacks as short as they are, blind steals will be more of an issue in Push 'em than in deep-stacked NLHE games.
Player Profiling
While there will be fewer decisions per hand in Push 'em -- with almost all being of the all-in-or-fold variety -- you will still come to notice some players approaching the game differently than others, and thus as in all poker games you should be ready to adapt your game to what others are doing. There will undoubtedly be no shortage of maniacs, ready to gamble with any two cards. There will actually be nits (relatively speaking) at the Push 'em tables, too, who fold more than they should. Take note, and adjust your own decision-making accordingly.
You may even see some trying to limp or make minimum-raises occasionally before the flop. (The limp-reraise with a big hand will prove a popular play for certain players.) And of course for those who are able to accumulate chips and build stacks greater than the starting 5 BB, you may see some even-looser-than-usual calls or raises, or other out-of-the-ordinary plays.
While clearly more of a gambling game than regular no-limit hold'em, Push 'em will provide opportunities to employ some strategy and thus give an edge to players who can smartly play their short stacks and push around not just some chips but opponents, too.
When a poker player enters a tournament they envisage themselves being armed with so many chips that they can play any way they want and even if they make a mistake it will have no lasting effect whatsoever on their...
Those of us who have been playing no-limit hold'em for a while sometimes forget what it was like when we first started out. While the rules of the game are relatively easy to pick up, there are numerous aspects of...
It happens more often than you might think in no-limit hold'em -- a flop containing three cards of the same suit. About once every 19 hands or so (a little over 5% of the time), a flop will come single-suited....
March 25, 2012
Manchester United v Fulham: Reds will take their chance
Manchester United / Soccer Widow / 25 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Antonio Valencia - firing on all cylinders
"Fulham's recent record at Old Trafford is abysmal with just one win from the last 12 games there in all competitions. United won the other 11, seven of them by a two-goal-or-more margin."
Soccerwidow studies the stats and finds stand-out value bets as Manchester United bid to steal a march on their title rivals.
It would have been too good to be true for fans of Manchester United if Chelsea had held on at Manchester City in mid-week. But with Stoke putting up an heroic performance on Saturday, the Red Devils can create a three point cushion on Monday night against Fulham.
Fulham's recent record at Old Trafford is abysmal with just one win from the last 12 games played there in all competitions, whilst United have won the other 11, seven of those by a two-goal-or-more margin. Fulham's recent away record in the Premier League is not much more promising, winning just five of their last 25 (20%), and losing on 11 occasions (44%).
Sir Alex Ferguson will hope that his squad comfortably defeats Fulham and makes in-roads into the four goal difference between City and United. Fulham are the league's lowest scorers away from home but will feature Pavel Pogrebnyak up front, who has scored in a victory over United, for former club Zenit St Petersburg in the 2008 European Super Cup match.
The United team will probably be without Nani but this is not an issue with Antonio Valencia fully fit and firing on all cylinders again. United look more balanced whenever he plays and his composure and unselfish approach in front of goal contrasts with Nani, who more often than not looks to shoot on sight, with only moderate results.
Detailed Stats Analysis
Head-to-Head record last 12 games; Manchester United at home, Fulham away (all competitions since 1998-99):
• Full-time: United 11 wins (91.67%); no draws; Fulham one win (8.33%); Last six (most recent first): H-H-H-H-H-H
• Full-time: United winning by two-goals-or-more: seven times (58.3%); Fulham winning by two-goals-or-more: once (8.33%)
• Half-time: United eight wins (66.67%); four draws (33.33%); Fulham no wins (0%)
• Full-time over 2.5 goals eight times (66.67%); full-time over 3.5 goals four times (33.33%)
• Total goals last six meetings (most recent first): 2-3-3-2-6-6
Manchester United's last 25 Premier League home games:
• Full-time: 22 wins (88%); one draw (4%); two defeats (8%); Last six (most recent first): W-W-W-W-L-W
• Full-time: winning by two goals or more: 14 times (63.6% of their 22 wins)
• Half-time: United 16 wins (64%); seven draws (28%); two defeats (8%)
• Full-time over 2.5 goals 15 times (60%); full-time over 3.5 goals nine times (36%)
• Total goals last six home games (most recent first): 2-3-2-3-5-5
Fulham's last 25 Premier League away games:
• Full-time: five wins (20%); nine draws (36%); 11 defeats (44%); Last six (most recent first): L-W-L-L-D-D
• Full-time: winning by two goals or more: four times (80% of their five wins)
• Half-time: Fulham six wins (24%); 10 draws (40%); nine defeats (36%)
• Full-time over 2.5 goals six times (24%); full-time over 3.5 goals twice (8%)
• Total goals last six away games (most recent first): 1-1-3-4-2-2
Summary
Interesting to see how few goals feature in Fulham's away fixtures with 13 out of 25 games (52%) finishing with just two, four matches with only one (16%), plus two 0-0 draws (8%). All told, 76% of their last 25 league games away from home have finished under 2.5 goals.
United have not had a single 0-0, have had only four home matches involving just a single goal (16%), plus six games with a total of two goals (24%). These statistics equate to 40% of their last 25 league home games ending with fewer than 2.5 goals.
Of Fulham's last 25 away fixtures, 92% have ended under 3.5 goals as opposed to 64% of United's last 25 home games.
This is another game where the market has determined the 'draw' odds by taking the league average into consideration rather than head-to-head comparisons. The current lay odds are [6.8], whereas in reality, the 'true' draw odds are [10.0]. Laying the draw is therefore a possibility with only a 10% chance of it occurring. Whether the prudent bettor wishes to 'gamble' with odds this high is another matter.
Value Bet Recommendations:
Back full-time under 3.5 goals (odds [1.60] 'true' odds 1.38; value 56.9%; probability 72.33%)
Because of the very clear prognosis this week, there are hardly any value bets to be found for this match. No matter which formulae are used to compile the probabilities and odds this is one of those exceptional games where all computations lead to the same results and the whole market seems to be in agreement.
So, only two 'value bet' recommendations but herewith a few other ideas which, although highly likely to occur, do not necessarily carry any 'value'.
It is 46% likely that Manchester United will win both halves, with current odds at [2.3]; 93% likely that Fulham will not keep a clean sheet at odds of [1.08]; 57% likely that United will keep a clean sheet at odds of [1.88]
Five-star United [1.49] for the title after destroying new relegation favourites Wolves...
After exiting the Europa League in midweek Manchester United's season has come down to just the league with Wolves the opposition on Sunday. Recent Betting.Betfair signing, the Soccer Widow, analyses the game from her unique perspective, picking up the best...
Wolves are a side in a slump and Manchester United very much a team on the up. Sometimes the obvious outcome leads to obvious bets and that's probably the case here, says Lee Dixon....
March 20, 2012
Follow The Money: Diplomatic's solid treble chance
Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 20 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
/ Follow The Money / 20 March 2012 / Leave a Comment Two FTM bets run at Kempton on Tuesday
"Diplomatic has really blossomed this year and a nice middle draw along with significant support, [6.6] in to [4.7], points to the treble being a realistic proposition."
Today's movers come from the meetings at Exeter and Kempton...
In Exeter's 16:00 there has been a move for Fergal O'Brien's Bubbly Bruce. On the face of it there is not a great deal to recommend the eight-year-old but [11.0] in to [7.2] for quite decent money should trigger further investigation. You only have to look back a couple of years to discover that this selection was tackling the likes of Cue Card and other high class opposition. If he can put a disappointing Hurdles career behind him and take to fences on his first attempt he could be worth a punt.
Over to Kempton for our next two movers. Hannibal Hayes in the 16:10 seems an appealing selection on first glance but the market is speaking loudly against his chances. Drifting from [2.84] to [5.0] this once-raced son of Elusive Quality would not appear to be tuned to the minute for today's race. There are plenty of promising types in opposition and hopefully one of them will fulfil that promise today and prove that the market slide on our lay was justified.
Lastly, in Kempton's 17:40, Diplomatic attempts a course and distance three-timer in the space of two months. The Cape Cross seven-year-old has really blossomed this year and a nice middle draw along with significant support, [6.6] in to [4.7] points to the treble being a realistic proposition. Late support for another runner would dent our confidence, but as things stand the selection has very solid credentials.
Recommended Bets
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=105195298&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013
Lay Hurricane Hayes [5.0] Kempton 16:10
Back Diplomatic [4.7] Kempton 17:40
Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Southwell and Kempton....
Today's Follow The Money Movers come from the meetings at Newton Abbot and Carlisle....
Today's Follow The Money comes from the meetings at Kempton, Uttoxeter and Ffos Las....
March 4, 2012
The Punter's In-Play Blog: Can Rory take his chance?
The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 04 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
World number one in waiting - Rory McIlroy
"Rory has finished in the top-five in nine of his last ten events – a phenomenal run of form. But it’s worth considering that he’s only actually won once during that period of excellence."
With storms threatening, play has been brought forward in Florida, with the leaders teeing off at 3.30pm. Can odds on Rory take the title and the world number one spot? The Punter gives his verdict here...
12.15 - March 4, 2012
Sometimes the best course of action is to do nothing and with a round to go, I've only just got involved in-running. I looked long and hard at the state of play before round three and although I was tempted by Keegan Bradley and Justin Rose, I eventually decided that discretion was the better part of valour and it's paid off. Bradley is still around [13.0] this morning and Justin Rose is considerably bigger than the [5.6] he was yesterday, after a disappointing third round. Trailing Rory McIlroy by four, he's now [16.5].
Current leaderboard and odds to back as at 12.00
Rory McIlroy -11 [1.64]
Harris English -9 [11.0]
Tom Gillis -9 [16.0]
Keegan Bradley -7 [13.5]
Justin Rose -7 [16.5]
Brian Harman -7 [55.0]
Charl Schwartzel -6 [22.0]
Dicky Pride -6 [140.0]
Greg Chalmers -5 [110.0]
-4 bar
It was impossible not to be really impressed with Rory yesterday. There was something about his demeanour that suggested he's experienced a step up in belief and on the face of it a win today and his inevitable rise to world number one as a result, looks almost inevitable. But yesterday was Saturday, today's Sunday, and the pressure is infinitely more intense on payday and I'm still not utterly convinced, despite his confident appearance.
He's without any doubt the best golfer in the world now, he's also the most in-form and the most consistent but the fact remains, he's not converting chances with relentless regularity and those considering piling in at just [1.64] need to exercise caution. Incredibly, Rory has finished in the top-five in nine of his last ten events - a phenomenal run of form. But it's worth considering that he's only actually won once during that period of excellence.
Although I wouldn't advocate backing Rory at [1.64], with so few alternatives on offer, I'm in no mood to lay him either. Instead I've tried to be clever and picked out a couple of small backs.
Tom Gillis was clinging on yesterday and he made some remarkable par saves but I can't see how he can keep it going again today. He looks highly likely to struggle and I can't fancy him at all.
I'm still tempted by Bradley and I may yet back him in-running but in tricky conditions any margin is magnified and he may just have too much to do. I'd suspected one or two players might have shot better to emerge from the pack yesterday but it just didn't happen. Harris English and Rory shot the equal best rounds - four under par 66's and it's very difficult to envisage anyone shooting low today. Conditions wouldn't have gotten any easier overnight!
Justin Rose's game was ragged yesterday and he needs to improve a lot today, so maybe I was right to dismiss him on the account of his current form after all. Albeit only just! If he plays like he did yesterday, he has no chance.
Charl Schwartzel could be a viable alternative, if he can put in another fast start but sustain it this time. He was four under par through just six holes yesterday but played out the remaining two thirds of the course in one over.
It's hard to find alternatives but after much deliberation, I've had a couple of small wagers on the two Q-school graduates in the mix.
Should Rory struggle, 22 year old American Harris English could just be the man to prosper. He too looked coolness personified yesterday; however the same warning applies to him as it does to Rory. Today's a whole different ball game and English could turn into a gibbering wreck but I thought he was the best alternative at the odds available and just about worth a small wager and I'm also taking a chance on Brian Harman...
Harman was the U.S. Junior Amateur in 2003 and at 25 he has fully three years over English and Rors - a veritable veteran! I don't know much about him but anyone that can shoot 61 around PGA National - smashing the course record by three, and then return the following day and break par must have some game and it's likely the market has vastly underestimated him at [60.0].
Don't forget this starts very soon. The leaders tee off at 3.30pm and it's live on Sky from 3.30pm too. Enjoy!
15.25 - March 3, 2012
Given he came very close to being a selection, watching Justin Rose hit the front last night was particularly irritating, and I'm pretty sure had I not backed him last week, when he lost in round one of the Match Play to Paul Lawrie, I would have played him here. He ticked every box bar current form and I felt he was just a fraction short at around [40.0].
Rose was matched at just [3.20] last night as he went two shots clear but two late bogeys, just as he looked like he was going to kick clear, meant he ended the second round tied with Tom Gillis.
I'd written yesterday that I'd have a really good look today and I have, but I've decided to leave things alone for now, even though I'm desperate to oppose the current favourite, Rory McIlroy.
History suggests you need to be up with the pace at this stage and that maybe we shouldn't be looking any further than the front four (McIlroy and Dicky Pride on -7 trail Gillis and Rose by one) but with the forecast suggesting that the wind will pick up considerably today I'm going to hang fire.
McIlroy isn't a great wind player and I'd love to go against him. I'm tempted by both Rose at [5.5] and Keegan Bradley (three off the lead and a brilliant wind player) at [12.5] but I'm going to sit on my hands for now and see what happens early on.
Of my pre-event picks, Ben Crane fought back brilliantly after an early double-bogey but then spoilt all the good work by bogeying two of his last three holes. He's now on -4 and four of the lead. One further back is Ryan Palmer and believe it or not, I still have hope there. If the wind does really get up Palmer will relish the challenge and if there is going to be a big shake up today he could be one of those to make progress.
14:10 - March 2, 2012
I'm pretty sure I've never had so many picks all receive the usually beneficial early first round tee time. Incredibly, all eight selections were assigned an early start on Thursday but only two took full advantage. The morning starters averaged 70.40, compared to the afternoon starters who averaged 71.32, but with the wind forecast to be marginally worse this afternoon, I suspect it'll even itself out.
Best of my eight was Ryan Palmer, who shot a four under par 66, two more than first round leader, Ryder Cup captain, Davis Love III. Ben Crane shot 67, Matt Bettencourt 69 and a both Y.E Yang and Fredrik Jacobson shot level par - and they're not out of it yet.
Interestingly, a couple of past winners have started slowly so if your pick or picks haven't started brilliantly, don't panic. Last year's winner, Rory Sabbatini, shot a one over par 71 in round one and was sitting in a tie for 20th and Mark Wilson, who won in 2007, was in a tie for 53rd after starting the week with a two over 72. Both did get cracking on day two though and they were sitting second and fifth respectfully after round two and indeed, no winner has come from any further back than sixth at halfway.
I'm going to take a really good look at the close of play today and recent history suggests I shouldn't scan too far down the leaderboard to find the winner. With the drying wind making the course tougher as the week wares on, making up ground gets harder and harder and the last three winners were either one back (Sabatini) or leading at the halfway stage.
Play is already under way and Paul Krishnamurty has once again gotten himself a Find Me A 100 Winner in the mix. Carl Pettersson is current in a tie for third!
Of the fancied runners - Rory McIlroy has started well again, shooting -4, and it's surely only a matter of time before he's ranked the world's number one player. But Lee Westwood and Tiger Woods are struggling slightly. Westwood is currently on level par, five holes into round two, and Tiger Woods, in the same group, is one over. His putting woes are continuing unabated. He needed 34 strokes with the flatstick yesterday and nobody wins anything with that sort of average.
Honda Classic Pre-Event Selections:
Ben Crane @ [42.0]
Y. E. Yang @ [55.0]
Fredrik Jacobson @ [65.0]
Ryan Palmer @ [190.0]
Stephen Ames @ [250.0]
Matt Bettencourt @ [350.0]
Graham DeLaet @ [400.0]
In-Play bets
Harris English @ [11.5]
Brian Harman @ [60.0]
There's just one event to concentrate on this week but it's a cracker. Read Steve's thoughts on the Honda Classic here......
It's been a poor week for Steve, with his gamble on Mark Wilson just falling short, but what lessons has he learnt for next year?...
After a dull day in the desert yesterday, Steve's hoping for a lot more excitement today. Could Mark Wilson go all the way and who will win the big grudge match?...
February 21, 2012
Champion Hurdle Betting: Not hard to see Binocular's leading chance
Ante-post / Adam Brookes / 21 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
J P McManus' Binocular
"...Timeform ratings show he's now the leading home-trained hope for the race."
With a number of horses throwing their names into the ring at the weekend, Timeform's Adam Brookes assesses the Champion Hurdle picture and provides a recommended bet for the two-mile showpiece on March 13...
With most recent events freshest in the mind, Binocular is a good place to start and the eight-year-old has returned to his best in winning his last two outings, matching his 2010 Champion Hurdle victory when easily beating fellow Champion Hurdle entries Celestial Halo and the returning Starluck in the Kingwell at Wincanton on Saturday. That strong-travelling performance was much more taking than his two previous 'prep' runs for the Champion (forced to miss last year's race on the BHA's advice having been treated for an allergy leading up to the race) and Timeform ratings show he's now the leading home-trained hope for the race.
Nicky Henderson also has Grandouet amongst the rating principals, the five-year-old having impressively landed a minor event at Haydock and the Grade 2 International hurdle at Cheltenham since crashing out at the second last when upsides winner Celestial Halo in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton in November. Grandouet was due to be the yard's representative in the Kingwell before banging a hind leg and, although he is expected to be fine given a few days' rest, it remains to be seen whether being forced to miss the race will affect his preparation.
Five lengths ahead of Grandouet in last year's Triumph Hurdle was Zarkandar, who was another to stake a firm claim at the weekend when maintaining his unbeaten status with a determined win in a very competitive Betfair Handicap Hurdle at Newbury. The half-brother to unbeaten Arc de Triomphe heroine Zarkava clearly has stacks of ability and most probably did well to score, having not had the smoothest of passages and reportedly been one of the yard's runners to come back with a dirty nose. Zarkandar obviously has the potential to progress further but he is going to need to do so and he reportedly looked plenty fit enough to do himself justice before Friday's race. At the current prices, he doesn't make great appeal.
While Nicholls also has Betfair Hurdle seventh Brampour and Celestial Halo entered, ratings suggest his best chance of winning the race for the first time is actually last year's Neptune runner-up Rock On Ruby. Rock On Ruby, who had made a much-improved winning return when carrying top weight in a listed 16.5f handicap at Newbury in November, might well have made a successful step up in class but for a sloppy jump at the last when finding only Binocular a neck too good in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. He is sure to be staying on stoutly up the gruelling Prestbury Park hill and is not to be overlooked.
The one they will all have to beat though is, of course, Hurricane Fly, who looks highly likely to retain his crown and record Ireland's sixth success in the last nine renewals. Hurricane Fly ran to a rating 1 lb higher than for last year's Champion win when cruising home in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown (his first start on heavy ground) at the end of last month, which suggests the eight-year-old may even be improved this time round. What's more, he is sure to be benefited by the return to better ground (unbeaten in three starts on good), meaning he'll thoroughly deserve his place as very short-priced favourite.
Irish champion trainer Willie Mullins also has Zaidpour (first in Red Mills Trial Hurdle at Gowran on Saturday), Mikael d'Haguent (second in Boyne Hurdle at Navan on Sunday), So Young (third in Neptune on good going last year but five wins have come on soft or heavy) and Thousand Stars (fourth in 2011 Champion) to choose from, but all currently trade at shorter odds for the World Hurdle on the Thursday.
Ireland's other leading contender looks likely to be the horse Hurricane Fly beat by six and a half lengths last time, Oscars Well, another who performed well at the Festival last March (still going strongly in front when stumbling on landing after the last in the Neptune). While not in the same class as the defending champ, he's in there pitching with the following pack and has minor place claims with the return to better ground and likely generous gallop sure to suit.
The final contender to mention is the admirable Overturn who, with Peddlers Cross nigh on certain to go for the Arkle, looks set to be Donald McCain's only runner. He's another whose overall level of form entitles him to a small place chance, but his style of running means he's always there to be shot at and he was a well-beaten third behind Binocular and Rock On Ruby in the Christmas Hurdle last time.
With Hurricane Fly looking a class apart, the "To Be Placed" and "W/O HFly" markets look more inviting from a betting perspective at this stage. Zarkandar is the only entry who remains open to further improvement but the scramble for the placings looks likely to be a closely-fought one and, at the prices, it could be wise to look elsewhere. Fellow Nicholls contender Rock On Ruby is sure to be overlooked in the betting considering that he's very likely to be deserted by Ruby Walsh (Hurricane Fly) and Daryl Jacob (Zarkandar) but it may be prudent to stick with one who's got the t-shirt, namely his Kempton conqueror Binocular.
Recommendation
Back Binocular @ [4.5] in the Champion Hurdle "W/O Hurricane Fly" market
Sizing Europe will go to Cheltenham with a good chance, but there could be one to topple him in his bid to win at the Festival for the third year in a row. Simon Rowlands reports......
With a quality weekend in prospect, Timeform's Adam Brookes runs the rule over Saturday's Betfair Ascot Chase ......
Timeform's Matt Gardner takes an ante-post look at Saturday's Grand National Trial, run over three and a half miles at Haydock Park......
February 8, 2012
Champion Chase: Big Zeb worth chance to bounce back at odds
Ante-post / Adam Brookes / 07 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
2010 Champion Chase hero Big Zeb
"...owing to the current disparity in prices, it’s Colm Murphy’s runner who makes most appeal as an ante-post back proposition."
With current prices in mind, Timeform's Adam Brookes believes he's found the value bet in the second-day feature of this year's Cheltenham Festival, the Grade 1 Queen Mother Champion Chase.
Sizing Europe's 15-length victory over Big Zeb in the recent Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown has seen the reigning champion chaser establish a 7 lb edge over his rival on Timeform ratings, the 172 figure he achieved matching his winning effort in last year's main event. It's not surprising that trainer Henry de Bromhead has been quoted as saying how the horse is like a child to him, Sizing Europe's record since being sent chasing aged seven quite staggering (yet to finish out of the places, winning four Grade 1s, three Grade 2s and a Grade 3) and, judged on his latest authoritative victory, the trainer can look forward to a few more big days yet. A seemingly bombproof sound jumper/strong traveller, Sizing Europe is undoubtedly the one they will all have to beat at Cheltenham in five weeks' time.
Another modern day Irish legend, Moscow Flyer, was the last 11-year-old to win the race when regaining his crown in 2005 and Big Zeb aims to achieve an identical feat this time round having found Sizing Europe five lengths too good last year. Big Zeb finished runner-up (to Golden Silver) in the Tied Cottage a year ago too, the first of two verdicts he has over Sizing Europe (the current head-to-head score is 2-2) and, although he ran to a figure some 12 lb below his Timeform master rating in the race this time round, he was travelling as well as the winner for most of the race and might just have got bogged down in the ground (the second time he hasn't been at his best on heavy going).
With a Master Minded-shaped hole in this year's Champion Chase, and a field size that will probably fail to match the 10 runners averaged since 2000, stiffest opposition to the 'Big Two' is highly likely to come from Finian's Rainbow. Last year's Arkle runner-up produced a tremendous turn of foot when getting back up to beat Wishfull Thinking and Oiseau de Nuit having made a bad mistake four out on his seasonal return at Kempton, and he showed himself a high-class chaser when finding only Somersby too good in the VC Chase at Ascot just under a month later. However, while admitting that similar comments could have been applied to Sizing Europe before his Champion Chase win, he remains with a bit to prove at the highest level, and there's also the possibility that he'll struggle to get his own way in front with Sizing Europe in opposition.
Somersby is currently second in on Timeform ratings but he also holds the same status for the Ryanair and, with him being having been beaten at the shorter option at all of the last three Cheltenham Festivals, that race should be his preferred target. The Ryanair could also be the preferred destination for Gauvain, I'msiningtheblues, the Irish pair Realt Dubh and Blazing Tempo, and Paul Nicholls' Kauto Stone.
With that in mind, and the strong likelihood that both Peddlers Cross and Al Ferof will go for the Arkle, the champion trainer could well have a live contender for the Champion Chase frame in the shape of Hold Fast. Graham Wylie's eight-year-old impressed with his jumping when readily taking a Sandown handicap on just his second start for Nicholls and, though he has a fair bit to find with the form principals, he's already rated higher than the David Pipe duo I'm So Lucky and Dan Breen, and he has the potential to leapfrog the likes of stablemate Ghizao (lost his way), Forpadydeplaster (hasn't won since 2009 Arkle), Wishfull Thinking (seemingly has breathing issues), and Oiseau de Nuit (has been let down by jumping) as the most interesting outsider.
While Sizing Europe clearly deserves his place as strong favourite in his bid to emulate the likes of Badsworth Boy, Pearlyman, Barnbrook Again and, more recently, Master Minded by winning the Champion Chase for two years in succession, it is worth remembering that he was somewhat advantaged by a positive ride last year and there's the overriding feeling that the market's reaction to the Tied Cottage was excessive. It would be no surprise were Big Zeb to finish much closer to him next month and, owing to the current disparity in prices, it's Colm Murphy's runner who makes most appeal as an ante-post back proposition, with him likely to be trading at a shorter price come March 14. With dangers thin on the ground, it may even pay to also back Big Zeb for a place nearer the time, when anything over [1.7] would be considered value.
Recommendation
Back Big Zeb @ [7.6] in the Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival
The highlight of the weekend is the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown on Sunday which features a clash between champion chaser Sizing Europe and the horse whose crown he took at Cheltenham last March, Big Zeb.........
With the Cheltenham Festival only six weeks away, Timeform's Adam Brookes previews the Ryanair Chase on Thursday March 15 and highlights a runner he believes to be value at the current prices......
Timeform's Adam Brookes takes a look at one of the betting features of the weekend, Saturday's three-mile Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster......
July 31, 2011
Follow The Money: Sporting chance at Glorious Goodwood?
Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 30 July 2011 / Leave a Comment 
/ Follow The Money / 30 July 2011 / Leave a Comment Blue sky, sunshine and great racing...
"At Goodwood for the negative of the day in the 16:20, the horse is Sports Section has drifted from [2.9] out to [3.5]."
This afternoon's Follow The Money movers come from Goodwood and Newmarket...
We start in the first at Goodwood at 14:05 and the horse in question is Dubai Media who has been backed from [30.0] in to [19.5]. Ed Dunlop's four-year-old won twice last year, the first of them being around this time of year. Since then she has not quite had her best conditions and a fast run race, over 6 furlongs and on drying ground could be ideal for her today. She is one of the most lightly raced in the field so still might still have some improvement to come.
Over to Newmarket we go for the 15:55 which has seen a positive move for Luca Cumani's Bourne, having been backed from [3.95] into [3.45] The five-year-old and been largely consistent since his three maiden runs. Last time the gelding was a good second to the old boy Halicarnassus, that day though it looked like he didn't stay that well and today will be far more happier over the 1 mile 2 furlong trip. It's also worth noting that all three of his wins have been over this trip. The Luca Cumani stable have had two winners in the last three days including yesterday's Goodwood winner Drunken Sailor, everything point to a big run today.
Lastly we are back at Goodwood for the negative of the day in the 16:20, the horse is Sports Section who has drifted from [2.9] out to [3.5]. On his only start he was second at Newmarket over today's seven furlongs. It was a good run that day, the worry though would be the form could look suspect in that race. The favourite that day was well beaten and the first eight or nine home that day finished quite bunched up. Today's drying ground today could be a worry along with the fact today he takes on some very promising types.
Recommended Bets
Back Dubai Media @ [19.5], Goodwood 14:05
Back Bourne @ [3.45], Newmarket 15:55
Lay Sports Section @ [3.5], Goodwood 16:20
In Follow The Money's usual offering, two backs and one lay are as ever, the order of the day....
Today's Follow The Money comes from Stratford and Goodwood....
The Follow the Money team serve up a Sussex Stakes special and provide a couple of other promising bets......
July 24, 2011
Michael Vaughan: A great chance for England to go 1-0 up
Test previews / Michael Vaughan / 23 July 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Graeme Swannwill be looking forward to bolwing on day five at Lord's
"England need to be aggressive with their declaration, get the tactics right and take their chances when they come their way because this is a great chance to go 1-0 up. My money is on them doing just that."
Michael Vaughan thinks England have a great chance of winning the First Test if they get their tactics right and take their chances...
As I predicted in my pre-match preview, India have looked a little rusty over these first three days.
The injury to Zaheer Khan was obviously a huge blow on day one and just downright unlucky. In fairness to Praveen Kumar, he did his very best to try and make up for the loss of India's star man with the ball and bowled exceptionally well. No-one likes to see the best players missing through injury but it's obviously done England's chances of winning this Test and the Series as a whole, no harm at all.
I'm guessing Andrew Strauss would probably have enforced the follow-on if given the chance but England will have to re-think their strategy now in terms of how to go about trying to win the match.
They need to go out and bat normally when they start the second innings. Strauss will see the second innings as a good chance to get some runs on the board himself. He actually played really well and looked pretty comfortable until falling to an ill-judged shot in the first innings and with his nemesis Zaheer Khan very unlikely to bowl on Sunday, he'll fancy his chances of getting a big score on a wicket that is expected to stay true. And we fancy that as well so at a rather appealing [5.0], he's our chosen selection for second innings top batsman. A price that appeals even more because England are likely to declare at some stage which favours an opener's chances of top scoring.
Can England still win this Test? Very much so because with the possible exception of James Anderson, who looks a bit out-of-sorts, their other bowlers have been bowling really well on a pitch that hasn't offered too much assistance. The decision to play Stuart Broad rather than Tim Bresnan appears to have been vindicated and he'll be a threat in the second innings again, I'm sure.
The Lord's wicket very rarely deteriorates a lot but it's not played quite as well as it has in other Tests I've seen over the years. There may be something there for the fast bowlers and on day five there may even be some assistance for Graeme Swann. England need to be aggressive with their declaration, get the tactics right and take their chances when they come their way because this is a great chance to go 1-0 up. My money is on them doing just that.
Recommended Bets:
1pt Back Andrew Strauss to be England second innings top batsman @ [4.5]
2pts Back England to win @ [2.7]
Never underestimate the importance of playing at home in tough conditions, which gives England the edge before a ball has been bowled in anger. Read on to also find out who are the men to be on for top bat...
India haven't had enough of a chance to get used to English conditions and go into this First Test a little under-cooked. This should allow Jonathan Trott in particular to prosper and give England a great chance to go 1-0...
Ed Hawkins casts his eye over the players' market as the start of the four-Test series approaches...
June 22, 2011
Copa America Betting: Man City star seizes Argentina chance
Copa America / Michael Lintorn / 21 June 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Carlos Tevez indicated against Albania that he can function alongside Lionel Messi in a 4-3-3
"The Manchester City captain wasn’t even expected to make the 26-man preliminary selection, only to benefit from a late U-turn by Albiceleste coach Sergio Batista."
A few weeks ago, Carlos Tevez didn't even look likely to make Argentina's Copa America squad, but the latest signs are that he could yet play a significant role.
Carlos Tevez went a long way to ending the debate over whether he will be one of the three Argentina players to miss out on a place in their final 23-man Copa America squad this weekend by taking his opportunity to impress as a substitute in Monday's 4-0 friendly stroll against Albania.
The Manchester City captain wasn't even expected to make the 26-man preliminary selection only to benefit from a late U-turn by Albiceleste coach Sergio Batista, who remains unconvinced that the Argentine hero is suited to a role in the 4-3-3 formation that he is honing ahead of the tournament.
Batista has made drastic changes to the side he inherited from Diego Maradona after last summer's World Cup and is attempting to borrow a ploy from Barcelona boss Pep Guardiola by using Lionel Messi as the centre forward, the result of which is that there is no obvious slot in the team for Tevez.
The new system has proven effective in getting the best out of Messi, who has previously been accused back home of failing to replicate his Barcelona form when wearing the national team shirt, and he was the star performer as Albania were dismantled, however Tevez showed his worth too.
The former Boca Juniors striker came on at half time and impressed as part of a front three that still included Messi, scoring his first Argentina goal in nine months at the death after good work from fellow substitute Sergio Aguero.
Wide man Ezequiel Lavezzi grabbed his first goal for his country too to illustrate that in attack, the Copa America hosts look capable of justifying their [2.02] favourite status. Their options are so vast that the Argentine press predict that Diego Milito will be the one to make way when the squad is cut to 23, alongside defender Luciano Monzon and midfielder Diego Valeri.
It is at the back that question marks persist though as Batista bids to arrest his nation's 18-year wait for silverware, with the centre-back pairing of Nicolas Burdisso and Gabriel Milito untested against Albania but yet to prove that they are dependable.
Betting.Betfair has signed up the BBC's South American football correspondent Tim Vickery to lead our Copa America coverage....
May 26, 2011
Super League Betting: Wolves chance to win at Headingley
Super League / Stuart Jones / 26 May 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Richie Myler is back for the Wolves
"Leeds lost at the Halliwell Jones earlier this season and their good run, and record at Headingley against the Wolves, look in jeopardy on Friday night."
Once again it's Bank Holiday or bust for some of Super League's prime movers and punters. Stuart Jones selects the best bets.
The Bank Holiday weekend means Betfair punters have the chance to trade three live games in-running, the first of which is Friday evenings clash between Leeds and Warrington at the Carnegie Stadium.
The Rhinos' rotten luck with injuries this season shows no sign of abating. Centre Keith Senior is the latest to be ruled out, reportedly for the remainder of the season, and despite both men being named in the squad, question marks still hang over the fitness of full back Brent Webb and stand off Danny Maguire. The pair have been out since the Fourth Round Carnegie Challenge Cup win over Crusaders and, if either were to miss out on Friday, it would really restrict the attacking options available to the home side.
Leeds were comprehensively defeated at the Halliwell Jones earlier this season and their good run, and record at Headingley against the Wolves, look in jeopardy on Friday night. The fact that Tony Smith has been able to loan Chris Riley out to Harlequins this week speaks volumes about the strength in depth at his disposal, not only in the backs, but across the park as a whole, and they're boosted by the return of Richie Myler.
Warrington have won just once at Headingley since 2002, that success coming in the 2006 Playoff Eliminator courtesy of a last-gasp Lee Briers drop goal, but it's difficult to remember when they last visited Leeds in such good form, having notched up 232 points in their last three games, and a start of six doesn't look enough for any team against them in their current mood.
Huddersfield were given a boost mid-week when coach Nathan Brown signed a new deal, but I see very little between them and Hull at present, and I am happy to back the Airlie Birds with home advantage and a couple of points head start when the sides meet on Sunday.
The loss of Luke O'Donnell in the forwards is a huge blow to the Giants, especially given that he would have been key to negating the threat of opposite number Craig Fitzgibbon. They will have their work cut out to slow down a Hull pack that's gaining in confidence. Martin Gleeson and Sam Obst have been fine acquisitions by Richard Agar, both playing big roles in their team's return to form. The capture of a classy centre like Gleeson was something they'd been crying out for.
Elsewhere on Sunday, Wakefield entertain the Catalan Dragons at Belle Vue and I'm very surprised to see the French team asked to concede just the six points on the handicap. The Wildcats looked out on their feet at the end of extra-time against Castleford last week and I expect them to come unstuck against a superior Catalans side. As long as Scott Dureau makes the starting 13, the visitors should have no bother winning by double figures.
Recommended Bets
Back Warrington -6.5 pts @ 1.91
Back Hull + 2.5 pts @ 1.91
Stuart Jones thinks Castleford are in for a painful trip to Warrington on Friday evening while Huddersfield should have too much for St Helens...
The Rhinos are bidding to pick up their third win in a row but Cas will offer stiff opposition. Meanwhile, there's plenty at stake at the Stoop as Stuart Jones selects the best Bank Holiday weekend bets......
It might be a tough time to pick a winner but there's some exciting Super League action to sink your wagers into this weekend and Stuart Jones is just the man to kick-off the Bank Holiday cheer......
April 13, 2011
Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Take a chance on Toby Jug
Timeform Radio Tip / Rory Delargy / 13 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Rory's off to Cheltenham to follow today's selections
"A price of [6.8] is more than tempting for Toby Jug."
Rory Delargy is on course for Cheltenham's April Meeting, and gives his best bets for Wednesday's action at the Cotswold venue.
I'm taking a bit of a chance on today's best bet, as Sarah Humphrey's Toby Jug - 14:45, Cheltenham - was well held in the Midlands National on his return from a 16 month absence, but the handicapper has been very quick to release his grip, and he gets his favoured quick surface for the first time since landing a hat-trick over staying trips in 2009, the last of which came at this marathon trip off an 8 lb higher mark.
He looked a most progressive handicapper at the time, as evidenced by the fact he was sent off at 8/1 for a strong Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle off a mark of 146 on his final outing that season. His trainer was on the mark at Plumpton on Monday, and I'm prepared to take a chance that most of his old ability remains. A price of [6.8] is more than tempting enough.
In the following contest at 15:20, King's Legacy can bounce back from a non-staying effort over 3m here on New Year's Day. His earlier third to Grands Crus and For Non Stop has been advertised in no uncertain terms since, and he remains on an identical mark. He can rediscover that form with Ruby Walsh (unbeaten on him) taking over, and in conditions which should pose no problem.
Recommended Bets
Back Toby Jug in the 14:45 Cheltenham @ [6.8] (NAP)
Back King's Legacy in the 15:20 Cheltenham @ [6.6] (NB)
Terry Norman selects a pair of promising Tuesday afternoon bets......
Rory Delargy and Alex Steedman are on air at Timeform Radio to take listeners through three afternoon cards at Plumpton, Hexham and Wolverhampton. Rory outlines his best bets below....
The Grand National is the one everyone's talking about but it's not the only race at Aintree today. Rory Delargy talks us through his best of the rest....
April 2, 2011
NBA Betting Preview: Phoenix visit is chance for Spurs to step up
Basketball / Nick Shiambouros / 01 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
The pressure is on the for the Spurs
"I am expecting a huge effort from the Spurs in this crucial fixture."
With LA hot on their heels, San Antonio need to raise their game this weekend. Nick Shiambouros selects the best bets at the start of an exciting weekend in the NBA...
The Boston Celtics beat the San Antonio Spurs 107-97 at the AT&T Center on Thursday evening. Both teams traded punches all night long but it was the Celtics who proved the stronger in the final quarter.
Point guard Rajon Rondo had a huge night for Boston, scoring 22 points with 14 assists, in a very important victory which leaves the Celtics just two games behind Chicago in the Eastern Conference.
This was the fifth straight loss for San Antonio who are in real danger of losing the number one seeding in the Western Conference. The Spurs are now just 2.5 games ahead of Los Angeles with seven games left in the regular season.
On Thursday, the in form Los Angeles Lakers beat the Dallas Mavericks 110-82 in one of the most ill-tempered games I've seen all year. The game got out of hand in the fourth quarter when the teams were involved in an altercation on the floor. Four players were ejected as a result of this ugly incident.
This was the eighth win in a row for Los Angeles who are firing on all cylinders. The defending champions look unstoppable at the moment and have shortened to [3.85] to win the NBA championship.
This weekend , the Los Angeles Lakers and the San Antonio Spurs continue their battle for Western Conference supremacy and home court advantage.
On Sunday, the San Antonio Spurs play host to the Phoenix Suns in a nationally televised game. This is a must win game for San Antonio who have the best home record in basketball at 33-5. Despite their shocking recent form they will be heavily fancied.
The Suns have played very poorly since the All-Star break and appear to be looking forward to a long summer holiday. They still have a mathematical chance of making the post-season but it would take a miracle.
I am expecting a huge effort from the Spurs in this crucial fixture. Tim Duncan and company fully understand the importance of this game and should have way too many weapons for the disappointing Suns. I'm sure this veteran team will run up the score and should be backed at around [1.9] with the advertised handicap.
Later on Sunday, the Lakers host the Denver Nuggets. LA have been presented with a real chance of catching San Antonio in the West and will fight for every point in this game.
The great Kobe Bryant has been on fire for Los Angeles in the past few weeks and is playing like a man who is desperate to win his third consecutive championship.
At the defensive end of the floor, Ron Artest who has finally recaptured his early season form. He's not the easiest player to coach but he is one of the best defensive players in the game.
The Denver Nuggets are currently in fifth place in the Western Conference and are playing some decent basketball despite losing superstar guard Carmelo Anthony to New York earlier this year.
Head coach George Karl has done a wonderful job with the rotation and they could make a little noise in the post-season. I think the Lakers will be very difficult to beat and should be backed at around [1.9] with the advertised handicap.
Recommended Bets
Sunday back San Antonio with advertised handicap at [1.9]
Sunday back Los Angeles with advertised handicap at [1.9]
Nick Shiambouros previews the semi-finals of college basketball's big competition...
This weekend brings plenty of games with playoff implications and Nick Shiambouros has suggested bets for two of them...
Nick Shiambouros looks at some of the big weekend fixtures in the NBA...
March 9, 2011
Imperial Cup Betting: Prince has chance to be crowned King
Tipping / Adam Brookes / 09 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Neil King's Cheshire Prince has each-way prospects in the Imperial Cup
"Cheshire Prince, who confirmed that his sixth at Aintree on his penultimate start was a promising run when winning at Sandown last time, has ran some of his best races in big fields and has realistic place claims."
The sponsors of the Imperial Cup offer the carrot of a £75,000 bonus should the winner go onto win a race at the Festival, but Saturday's handicap hurdle at Sandown is highly prestigious in its own right. Timeform's Adam Brookes looks over the field...
The betting reflects how competitive the race currently appears, but with Nicky Henderson suggesting that at least some of his four fancied runners might take up other engagements, prices of the market leaders are subject to change.
The favourite as things stand is the progressive Aegean Dawn, who is unbeaten over hurdles and produced his best performance last time when beating Mille Chief by four and a half lengths at Ascot. Aegean Dawn received 17 lb from Mille Chief that day and has gone up 26 lb as a result, so whilst he's likely to improve further, he'll have to in order to defy such a hefty rise.
The trainer has also has Swinton Hurdle winner Eradicate entered. However, Eradicate might just be handicapped up to his best at present, as for all that he has run well in two similar races this season, he's rather more exposed than a few in the field.
Owen Glendower has had only three starts over hurdles and remains open to progress, whilst dual novice chaser winner Giorgio Quercus is even more of an unknown quantity having not raced over hurdles since March 2009.
Martin Pipe won the Imperial Cup six times, collecting the bonus twice, and son David, who has won the race twice and landed the bonus with Gaspara in 2007, is doubly represented this year. Despite having gone up 12 lb for unseating in his last race, Arrayan had looked one of the most progressive handicap hurdlers around prior to that and has to be respected. The yard's other representative is Ronaldo des Mottes, who travelled well on his return behind Mille Chief in the Kingwell Hurdle, but will have to improve to concede weight to a number of improving horses.
Philip Hobbs won the race last year with Qaspal and the same horse is entered once more, despite not having had a race since. He has a 13 lb higher mark to contend with this year but remains unexposed and has to be considered. Stable-mate Pateese ran a game race on his first start in handicap company last time and should continue his progress with drying ground seemingly in his favour. However, he seemed to be comprehensively beaten by Via Galilei, who could take him on once more.
Via Galilei was impressive when winning the big handicap hurdle at Newbury on Saturday, producing a performance that marked him out as the one to beat in this race should he take his chance. Provided he's over his exertions, there is no reason why he shouldn't make his presence felt again as he's going to get the fast pace that suits his running style. Gary Moore also has Sire de Grugy entered, and he certainly has the ability to be very competitive in a race of this nature. However, he revelled in soft ground at Kempton last time and is unlikely to get those conditions on Saturday.
Alan King has two horses entered, but there's little doubt that his best chance is Trophy Hurdle fourth The Betchworth Kid. However, despite having the ability, he isn't a fault-free jumper and can often leave himself with a lot of ground to make up and, in such a competitive race, it isn't going to be easy for him.
Champion trainer Paul Nicholls has only a single entry, Tito Bustillo, who has just a fair chance of being involved. With speed his forte, it's difficult to imagine a large field suiting him, and he disappointed when well-fancied for the County Hurdle at last year's Festival.
The Irish last won the Imperial Cup in 2006 with Victram and are set to send two horses over at this stage. However, Prince of Fire, who has largely been seen novice chasing this year with little effect, and Alpine Eagle, who doesn't appear to be well-handicapped, might struggle to add to that victory.
Of the other horses close up in the betting, the maiden Fiulin has the most to prove and has never raced in a handicap. Whilst he could prove well-suited to such a race, his trainer couldn't have found a more competitive one to start him off in.
For those who look for each-way value, Cheshire Prince, who confirmed that his sixth at Aintree on his penultimate start was a promising run when winning at Sandown last time, has ran some of his best races in big fields and has realistic place claims. With the drying ground likely to place more emphasis on his speed, he should not be underestimated.
The free-going Alarazi looks to have a chance on ratings, as does Rebel Dancer, whilst a revitalised Numide was almost back to his best last time, which would give him place prospects should he run. Old Way is reasonably well-fancied according to the market, but is going to find this very different to the novice hurdles he's been running in, whilst Kangaroo Court has to put two falls over fences well behind him.
Recommendation
Back Arrayan to win in the Imperial Cup
Back Cheshire Prince for a win and place in the Imperial Cup
The sponsors of the Imperial Cup offer the carrot of a £75,000 bonus should the winner go onto win a race at the Festival, but Saturday's handicap hurdle at Sandown is highly prestigious in its own right. Timeform's Adam Brookes looks over the field......
Three selections for Wednesday's meeting at Naas......
Three selections for Leinster National day at Naas....
February 27, 2011
Follow The Money: Royale with a majestic chance
Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 26 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
/ Follow The Money / 26 February 2011 / Leave a Comment Coup Royale will be looking to do the business at Kempton
"We finish at Kempton with the 16:45 two and half mile Handicap Chase with good support noted for Coup Royale for the Tizzards. He has been offered at [8.8] but now trades as favourite at [6.4]."
The FTM boys give us their usual two backs and a lay...
Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Lingfield, Kempton and Newcastle.
We start with Lingfield and in the 13:35 1m5f handicap Jezza has been very easy to back. He's been matched for strong money at [1.8] but now trades at [2.50] with the signs last time out suggesting the handicapper has finally caught up with him. Prior to his last run he had racked up a streak of three wins. He did however disappoint at very short odds-on last time, just losing out by a nose. The trainer Victor Dartnell has decided to drop him in trip after that and tries a furlong shorter than the trip he has been winning well in. He hasn't really shaped like a drop that far back will suit and at a course where a lot of horses get going all too late, he could well find it a difficult task.
Up to Newcastle now where in the testing ground Yurok has been supported in the 14:45 Novice Hurdle down to [1.91] from a high of [2.66]. Sue Smith's gelding is a half brother to the brilliant Brave Inca and has shown a fair standard of ability himself on his first two starts over timber. That level of form, given the heavy ground, looks clear of everything else in the field and the weight of support appears to back that up.
We finish at Kempton with the 16:45 two and half mile Handicap Chase with good support noted for Coup Royale for the Tizzards. He has been offered at [8.8] but now trades as favourite at [6.4]. Reportedly a very good looking horse, he has always been seen as a chaser by his trainer. He has had two starts so far and has looked a real natural, travelling powerfully both times. However, his first chase start saw him fold tamely over three miles at today's course and then subsequently he struggled at Newbury, where he again looked a decent horse but simply could not get involved. It's thought he struggled with his breathing so he has been given a break and the tongue tie is now on. He is certainly handicapped to win a good race and today looks the perfect opportunity.
Recommended Bets
Lay Jezza @ [2.50] Lingfield 13:45
Back Yurok @ [1.91] Newcastle 14:45
Back Coup Royale @ [6.4] Kempton 16:45
That's all for today. If you're on the move this information is recorded on 0870 90 80 181.
The FTM boys give us their usual two backs and a lay......
Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Lingfield, Sandown and Warwick respectively....
Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Ayr and Southwell....
February 14, 2011
Welsh Open Snooker Betting: Ding and Robertson with every chance
Snooker / David Hendon / 13 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Ding Junhui has finally settled in the UK and looks happy with his life and his game
"Ding seems happy in himself right now. When he first moved to the UK he found it hard to settle, understandably so – how many British players would find it easy to adopt to living in China? Now, the 23 year-old has found a good balance in his life. He still practises hard in Sheffield but has found himself a girlfriend and seems much more relaxed in general."
This is a tournament that should be won by one of the big guns. A good analysis of the draw and an understanding of the format gives us a good idea of which of them are well worth backing, says David Hendon.
Another week, another tournament, another new format. The first two rounds of the Welsh Open are best of seven frames with no intervals. In theory this makes the top seeds more susceptible to defeat but the same was said about the World Open earlier this season - played over a best-of-five sprint - and the semi-finals featured four world champions with the trophy going to reigning Crucible king Neil Robertson.
Whatever the format, top level snooker is ultimately a test of nerve just as much as it is a test of skill. Under pressure, the best players hold it together and therefore there is no reason to suggest the Newport title won't go to one of the usual suspects.
The draw looks unbalanced. John Higgins, Ronnie O'Sullivan and Shaun Murphy are all in the top quarter, along with Ricky Walden, Ryan Day and Matthew Stevens (and Jimmy White for that matter). This is a brutal section and my advice is just to leave them to it.
Ding Junhui is in what looks a far kinder quarter. The Chinese, who won the Wembley Masters last month, starts off against Marcus Campbell, a tough, determined Scot but a player who has rarely done the business on TV. Ding seems happy in himself right now. When he first moved to the UK he found it hard to settle, understandably so - how many British players would find it easy to adopt to living in China? Now, the 23 year-old has found a good balance in his life. He still practises hard in Sheffield but has found himself a girlfriend and seems much more relaxed in general. He played superbly at Wembley and didn't do much wrong at the German Masters in Berlin earlier this month before being undone by a tactically superior Mark Selby in the quarter-finals.
His main threats in his quarter are Ali Carter - who has done little of note since winning the Shanghai Masters last September - and Mark Allen, who followed up semi-final appearances in the UK Championship and Masters with a surprise first round defeat to Joe Swail in Germany. Ding thus avoids the really big hitters until at least the semi-finals.
Robertson's preparation was so bad for Berlin that the Aussie will surely want to make amends at an event he won in 2007. Robertson is more Frank Spencer than John Spencer when it comes to getting to tournaments. Already this season he arrived for a Premier League match only five minutes before it began. At the UK Championship he misread his match time and had to be phoned at his hotel by the tournament director ten minutes before he was due to break off. Before Germany he lost his passport, had to fly a day later than intended, arrived less than an hour before his match and lost.
But there is no problem with Roberton's timing on the table and as long as he actually turns up, he should do for veteran Nigel Bond in the first round, after which he would have as good a chance as anyone.
All the qualifiers are experienced campaigners with one glaring exception. Jack Lisowski, 19, is in his first season and has made an excellent start. He qualified for Berlin and won three matches last week to reach Newport where his reward is a TV debut against the game's top ranked player, Higgins. Logic dictates that young Lisowski should freeze and be well beaten by the three times world champion but a shock is not completely out of the question. OK, he has no experience of the TV set-up but, having interviewed him a number of times, I'm impressed by his intelligence and general attitude. He wants to learn from all the new experiences he is having on the tour and the pressure will be on Higgins. Sadly, the Scot had to pull out of the German Masters after his father, John senior, lost his battle with cancer. Obviously, this personal trauma will have meant that practising has been the last thing on Higgins's mind.
Seeds looking vulnerable include Carter, who could come unstuck against Barry Hawkins, a much better player than his record suggests, and Graeme Dott, who loathes short matches and who faces Jamie Burnett, runner-up in this season's Shanghai Masters.
Recommended Bets:
Back Ding Junhui to win the Welsh Open at [9.4]; Back Neil Robertson to win the Welsh Open at [11.0].
Back Barry Hawkins to beat Ali Carter at [2.5]; Back Jamie Burnett to beat Graeme Dott at [2.6].
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