Europa League Betting: Sporting Lisbon gunning to upset Spanish party

It’s a tall order, no doubt, but Sporting have defied poor league form to upset the odds before.

Sporting Lisbon are the Europa League's outsiders in every sense of the word but can the unfancied Portuguese side prevent an all-Spanish final?

It might have been another disappointing domestic campaign for Sporting but all will be forgiven if they somehow end up in a major European final. To do so, they will have to see off Manchester United's conquerors Athletic Bilbao, the 2.92/1 favourites to win the competition.

It's a tall order, no doubt, but Sporting have defied poor league form to upset the odds before. Ricardo Sa Pinto's men have already seen off Manchester City in this year's competition and if their performance at Eastlands is anything to go by, they aren't likely to be intimidated this time either.

After finishing a dispiriting 36 points behind champions Porto last season, Sporting had hoped for a new dawn with the appointment of Domingos Paciencia - who led Braga to last year's Europa League final.

But there was to be no dramatic turnaround. Paciencia was eventually dismissed after a run of just two wins in ten in all competitions proved too much to stomach. Following a revival, of sorts, Sporting are now fourth in Portugal's top flight, 13 points off the pace at the top.

They are by no means the first to find themselves gate crashing another country's party in the last four of Europe, though it hasn't always gone the way of the outsider. In last year's Europa League, Villarreal found themselves short of friends, with Braga, Porto and Benfica making up the final four. And on that occasion the Portuguese procession continued, with the Spaniards making way for a Braga v Porto final.

But there is precedent to inspire Sa Pinto's men. In 2008/09, Barcelona had three English clubs for company in the semi-finals of the Champions League. It didn't bother them one jot as they promptly beat Chelsea before seeing off Manchester United in the final. And just two years earlier AC Milan managed a similar feat, toppling Man United in the last four, prior to outgunning Liverpool in the final.

Sporting Lisbon are 7.87/1 to win the competition outright and perhaps a slightly more probable 2.82/1 to triumph in the first leg of their semi-final.

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La Liga Weekend Matches: Sporting revenge for Mourinho

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 13 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Sporting Gijon probably won't win at the Bernabeu again this season

"Pep Guardiola’s men are in cruise control at the moment, getting ahead before half-time and staying there until full-time in each of their last ten league games"

Real Madrid play one of the campaign's easier-looking fixtures and Tobias Gourlay expects them to make no mistake at home to Sporting Gijon - not like last season

Real Madrid v Sporting Gijon
Saturday 19:00
Real [1.07] Sporting [55.0] draw [18.0]

Real Madrid are on a run of difficult fixtures at the moment: Valencia, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Sevilla, Athletic Bilbao... This match is the exception.

Sporting finally showed the gumption their coach is renowned for on Wednesday night, coming from behind twice to beat Levante with a late Gaston Sangoy goal. Javier Clemente's team are still neck deep in the mire, however, because Villarreal also won in midweek and Sporting remain seven points short of safety.

And it is not clear that gumption is enough to beat Real Madrid, even when the boys from the Bernabeu are shorn of their key playmaker. Xabi Alonso's loss of form goes some way to explain why Real have failed to beat Malaga, Villarreal and Valencia in recent weeks and this one-match suspension might help him. This is a good game to miss too - Sporting have earned only two points from 27 on their most recent away trips.

Cristiano Ronaldo scored a hat-trick in the city derby with Atletico on Wednesday. He's matched last season's record (40 league goals) and will pass it at some point very soon. But he's also just one card away from a suspension that would rule him out of el clasico next Saturday night. Real might actually be better off without him for that match (he doesn't usually work hard enough off the ball to contain Barcelona) but Jose Mourinho won't see it that way and is likely to protect his top-scorer once - if - this game is won.

Perhaps this will save Sporting from thrashing, but perhaps it won't. The northerners have conceded more goals than anyone in the last 15 minutes of league games this season (18) and that is exactly the time that Real are most lethal, preying on tired opponents.

It is a concern that Mourinho will be keen to preserve other players too for stiffer challenges ahead, but he will also remember that Sporting won this fixture last season and ended his staggeringly long run of home league games without defeat. They must be made to pay for the impertinence.

This column's backed Real to score at least four goals a few times this season. What Real have often done is score exactly four goals (six times in 16 home games). The defence is in decent shape at the moment, conceding only twice in the last five at the Bernabeu, and 4-0 deserves a punt at [7.6].

Recommended Bet: Back 4-0 @ [7.6] in Correct Score 2 Home

Levante v Barcelona
Saturday 21:00
Levante [17.0] Barcelona [1.22] draw [7.8]

The Handicap Win market is one way to work out which teams in a given league have most outperformed pre-season expectations. In the Primera Division, Levante are heavily odds-on to win this market. Before a ball was kicked they were given a 50-point headstart on Barcelona; that they are currently only 30 points behind this weekend's opponents suggests Juan Ignacio Martinez should be a frontrunner in the coach of the year competition.

The Frogs have not beaten Barcelona in a top-flight game for more than half a century, but they did hold the Catalan giants to a 1-1 draw at the Ciutat de Valencia stadium last season.

Can they derail a Barca team whose coach says they have already crashed and burned out of this season's title race? Probably not.

Pep Guardiola's men are in cruise control at the moment, getting ahead before half-time and staying there until full-time in each of their last ten league games. [1.66] is a generous price for them to make it 11 in a row on Saturday night.

We've mentioned Ronaldo up above, and it's traditional to then mention Messi too. So, Barca's star man has scored 39 league goals of his own this season, finding the back of the net in each of his last nine Liga appearances. Not even he knows where this particular run will end, but you can be sure he'll be odds-on to make it ten in a row this weekend.

If, for some reason, you fancy an upset, then Arouna Kone is your man. On loan from Sevilla, the Ivorian forward has netted in each of his last three outings for Levante.

Recommended Bet: Back Barcelona/Barcelona @ [1.66]

*Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

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Follow The Money: Sporting chance at Glorious Goodwood?

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 30 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Blue sky, sunshine and great racing...

"At Goodwood for the negative of the day in the 16:20, the horse is Sports Section has drifted from [2.9] out to [3.5]."

This afternoon's Follow The Money movers come from Goodwood and Newmarket...

We start in the first at Goodwood at 14:05 and the horse in question is Dubai Media who has been backed from [30.0] in to [19.5]. Ed Dunlop's four-year-old won twice last year, the first of them being around this time of year. Since then she has not quite had her best conditions and a fast run race, over 6 furlongs and on drying ground could be ideal for her today. She is one of the most lightly raced in the field so still might still have some improvement to come.

Over to Newmarket we go for the 15:55 which has seen a positive move for Luca Cumani's Bourne, having been backed from [3.95] into [3.45] The five-year-old and been largely consistent since his three maiden runs. Last time the gelding was a good second to the old boy Halicarnassus, that day though it looked like he didn't stay that well and today will be far more happier over the 1 mile 2 furlong trip. It's also worth noting that all three of his wins have been over this trip. The Luca Cumani stable have had two winners in the last three days including yesterday's Goodwood winner Drunken Sailor, everything point to a big run today.

Lastly we are back at Goodwood for the negative of the day in the 16:20, the horse is Sports Section who has drifted from [2.9] out to [3.5]. On his only start he was second at Newmarket over today's seven furlongs. It was a good run that day, the worry though would be the form could look suspect in that race. The favourite that day was well beaten and the first eight or nine home that day finished quite bunched up. Today's drying ground today could be a worry along with the fact today he takes on some very promising types.

Recommended Bets
Back Dubai Media @ [19.5], Goodwood 14:05
Back Bourne @ [3.45], Newmarket 15:55
Lay Sports Section @ [3.5], Goodwood 16:20

In Follow The Money's usual offering, two backs and one lay are as ever, the order of the day....

Today's Follow The Money comes from Stratford and Goodwood....

The Follow the Money team serve up a Sussex Stakes special and provide a couple of other promising bets......

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