Showing posts with label Follow. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Follow. Show all posts

August 30, 2014

Follow The Money: Empire being backed in today's Saturday Sandown special

Recommended Bets

Lay Fintry in the 15:15 Sandown @ 2.962/1

Back Assault On Rome in the 16:25 Sandown @ 6.05/1

Back Zain Empire in the 17:00 Sandown @ 3.412/5

The markets have been reviewed and all three of today's Follow The Money selections come from the meeting at Sandown...


It takes a brave person to ignore the words of the great Andre Fabre and he has warned that his filly Fintry may not be at her best in today's 15:15 Sandown. Her price has eased out from 2.56/4 to her current price of 2.962/1 with large volumes of money traded on her. She has been off the track for 90 days and has a seven pound Group two penalty to shoulder as well. She has been brought here for better ground but this is very much a prep race for the Sun Chariot. She rates a good value lay with several credible rivals in opposition.

Moving on to the 16:25 Sandown, Assault On Rome has been backed to take advantage of a drop in class. The early 8.615/2 is long gone and she's currently trading at 6.05/1. She has been highly tried for the excellent Mark Johnston stable, running respectably in a listed race at Cologne in July and following that with an excellent third place behind Cabs in a Class three Nursery at Newmarket. Off the same mark and in this easier grade, this consistent sort can get her head back in front today. She should be able to get a prominent early position from her good draw and as with most representatives from this stable, keep finding at the business end.

Zain Empire has been the subject of relentless support in the 17:00 Sandown. Small money has been traded on him at as big as 7.613/2 and larger sums at all rates down to his current 3.412/5 accounting for over half of the money traded on the market. He's a lightly raced and progressive colt. After making a successful debut at Carlisle he ran an excellent third behind Provenance at Sandown over seven furlongs, form which has been boosted by the winner since. He posted another good effort on his latest start where he just missed out. After just three starts he is still open to improvement and the strength of support reflects his trainer's view that the colt is steadily improving and can only get better, will like the ground and should go well.


Recommended Bets

Lay Fintry in the 15:15 Sandown @ 2.962/1
Back Assault On Rome in the 16:25 Sandown @ 6.05/1
Back Zain Empire in the 17:00 Sandown @ 3.412/5

Staked: 632pts
Returned: 664.65pts
P/L: + 52.72pts (before commission)

Updated to end of July. Based on prices at time of publication.


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March 6, 2014

Follow The Money: Wind to blow them away at Southwell

"If Powerful Wind can get ahead early he could be hard to claw back. Daryl Byrne claims a valuable 5lb today and that could prove the difference."

Back Powerful Wind @ 7.413/2 in the 16:25 at Southwell

Today's selections come from the meetings at Southwell and Wincanton.

We start things off with today's recommended lay which comes in the 15:25 at Southwell where Moonlight Venture has been matched as low as 1.444/9 but is now out to 1.784/5. Second on his debut for Kevin Ryan, the market drift seems strange at first but the form of that race is yet to be franked and it is hard to gauge just how good this gelding is.

The opposition looks strong, too. Sea Spear is another who has had just the one run (finishing a close-up sixth) but nevertheless looks promising. Playtothewhistle, however, looks a bigger danger to us at a tempting price of around 10.09/1 with some fairly decent form already in the book. Well backed when 6.5 lengths fourth of eight last-time-out over course and distance at Southwell, that form looks solid with winner Mondlicht an easy winner around Lingfield on Tuesday. Considering all this, we have to make Moonlight Venture a lay today.

We stay at Southwell for the 16:25 where Powerful Wind has been well backed for Ron Harris, moving from 8.71n/a in to 7.413/2. Notorious for going off very fast, the wide draw in stall 9 is not ideal but he should be able to get past the field from the stalls to get a lead. And if he can get ahead early he could be hard to claw back. Daryl Byrne claims a valuable 5lb today and that could prove the difference. With the money coming for him he could be worth giving a chance to at a tempting price.

Our final recommendation today comes in the 16:35 at Wincanton where Giant Sequoia is being backed off the boards from a high of 9.08/1 in to 4.1n/a. Disappointing on the flat and over hurdles when trained by Barney Curley but very interesting with that former connection with all the money coming for him today. It is his debut for Sophie Leech today over hurdles and despite not having the best of form and infact no winning form since taking a handicap hurdle at Clonmel in 2011, the sheer amount of money coming for him today is impossible to ignore.


Recommended Bets 
Lay Moonlight Venture @ 1.784/5 in the 15:25 at Southwell
Back Powerful Wind @ 7.413/2 in the 16:25 at Southwell
Back Giant Sequoia @ 4.1n/a in the 16:35 at Wincanton


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March 2, 2014

Follow The Money: Thomas Junior being backed to boss his rivals

Recommended Bets

Back Big Sound @ 4.84/1 14:40 Huntingdon

Lay Thousand Stars @ 1.9520/21 14:50 Leopardstown

Back Thomas Junior @ 2.68/5 15:00 Huntingdon

Just the two meetings this afternoon in England and one in Ireland for the Follow The Money team to get their teeth stuck into. Here's today's three selections...


We start the day at Sedgefield where we will look to back Big Sound in the 14:40. Early money has seen this horse trade from a high of 6.86/1 in to a price of 4.84/1. Trainer Mark Walford stated that the heavy ground was the main factor for the disappointing run last time out at Catterick when finishing a long way behind the field. His last win came on soft ground back in the summer and his most promising recent run, when a close second at Wetherby, was also on soft ground, so today's going should suit. With that said, we think that Big Sound will make a big impression and get back to winning ways.

Moving over to Ireland for our lay, where we take a look at Thousand Stars, who runs in the 14:50 Leopardstown. A negative in the market all morning has seen him drift from 1.594/7 out to 1.9520/21. There's no questioning this horse would win this race very comfortably at his best, but recent form has been very disappointing, showing little to no impression on his last three runs. Although taking a step down in class for this affair, others look better off in the weights to pull off a shock win here.

Last up we move over to the 15:00 at Huntingdon where we will be backing Thomas Junior. A positive move has seen him go from 3.39/4 in to 2.68/5. Making progress in bumpers and hurdling the horse makes his handicap debut here. His last run out when third at Taunton is looking to be good form as the one he was beaten by has went on to win since, and his form on its own isn't bad reading, placing in three of his four starts. Jockey Tom Scudamore takes the ride today, and he has a respectable 25% strike rate when pairing up with trainer David Pipe. The horse looks relatively unexposed today and should get his debut win here.


Recommended Bets

Back Big Sound @ 4.84/1 14:40 Huntingdon
Lay Thousand Stars @ 1.9520/21 14:50 Leopardstown
Back Thomas Junior @ 2.68/5 15:00 Huntingdon


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August 11, 2013

Follow The Money: Lutine Bell the horse to back at Doncaster

"Lutine Bell has been backed from 17.016/1 to 10.5n/a. This six year old is without a win since 2010 but is now subsequently nicely handicapped. The return of blinkers today, not worn since 2011 and worn for all wins, can signal a return to form."

Back Lutine Bell @ 10.5n/a Doncaster 15:45

Today's Follow The Money comes from Doncaster, Hexham and Musselburgh...

We start at Hexham in their 14:15 novice chase in which Bygones Of Brid has been easy to back, now available at 3.1511/5 having earlier been 2.26/5. The selection does have some good hurdles form in the book but was pulled up on his sole chase start back in 2010 and there is no guarantee that form will switch to the larger obstacles. A very puzzling run at Haydock last month leaves him with some questions to answer today and, with a very credible rival in today's line up, punters are looking to get this one turned over this afternoon.

Next we head to Musselburgh's 14:20 juvenile conditions stakes where there has been a positive move for Sleeper King, in to 4.94/1 from 8.27/1. This one appears to be well regarded as he was well backed when posting an encouraging debut last month at York and it is interesting connections have opted to contest this race rather than go for another maiden. Today's drop in trip will suit and he is entitled to have come on since that debut run. A big run looks on the cards today.

Finally, in the 15:45 at Doncaster, Lutine Bell has been backed from 17.016/1 to 10.5n/a. This six year old is without a win since 2010 but is now subsequently nicely handicapped. The return of blinkers today, not worn since 2011 and worn for all wins, can signal a return to form.

Recommended Bets

Lay Bygones Of Brid @ 3.1511/5 Hexham 14:15 
Back Sleeper King @ 4.94/1 Musselburgh 14:20 
Back Lutine Bell @ 10.5n/a Doncaster 15:45 

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Follow The Money: Back the Ballerino to give super Stevens another winner


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May 19, 2013

Follow The Money: Hi There being backed to wave goodbye to rivals

Recommended Bets

Lay Life And Times @ 2.588/5 Market Rasen 14:00
Back Love Island @ 11.010/1 Ripon 15:10
Back Hi There @ 4.67/2 Ripon 15:40

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Market Rasen and Ripon...


First up and we see today's lay in the 14.00 2m1f Maiden Hurdle from Market Rasen. Life And Times was an early 1.824/5 shot but is now trading up at 2.588/5. He ran once three years ago on the flat finishing fifth over seven furlongs for Godolphin and makes his hurdling debut today for the John Ferguson yard for who the gap in racing won't be a cause for concern. However as he drifts Yes Daddy is being backed in this decidedly weak maiden making this almost a match bet but one that the betting suggests Life And Times might just miss out on.

We move over to Ripon for our final two races and first up is the 15.10 6f Handicap. There has been a lot of action in this race with several movers in both directions but its Love Island that's seen the most. Initially trading at around 15.014/1 she drifted alarmingly to 26.025/1 but has since seen a lot of money bring her back into 11.010/1. You can forgive her eighth at Thirsk last time out after racing on the unflavoured side at a shorter distance. Prior to that she had a winning seasonal return. With the ground good to soft, the same conditions she won C&D last summer, the money suggests this Richard Whittaker horse is one to follow today and she's still available at value prices.

Finally in the 15.40 1m Handicap Hi There has been backed in from 6.25/1 to 4.67/2. Things didn't go to plan at Musselburgh three weeks ago but the going is much more in his favour today. He had been improving prior to that performance and if he's able to resume that today he could get his head in front.


Recommended Bets

Lay Life And Times @ 2.588/5 Market Rasen 14:00
Back Love Island @ 11.010/1 Ripon 15:10
Back Hi There @ 4.67/2 Ripon 15:40

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May 9, 2013

Follow The Money: Ruler being backed as if in a World of his own

Recommended Bets

Lay Enobled @ 2.707/4 Goodwood 13:55
Back Ruler Of The World @ 1.9210/11 Chester 14:45
Back Sorella Bella @ 11.010/1 Southwell 17:10

Today's Follow The Money selections comes from the afternoon meetings at Goodwood and Chester...

Our first mover of the day is a negative one, in the shape of Enobled who runs in the 13.55 at Goodwood and is now trading at 2.6213/8 from 1.8910/11. The Sir Michael Stoute inmate ran just the once as a two-year-old, when a running on third over a mile on Kempton's all-weather surface. That run was a promising one and if improving on that should run a big race but its worth bearing in mind that he wasn't really fancied on his debut going off 14/1 and todays track might not be ideal for a horse having his second run after 197 days off the track.

We move north now to Chester for their 14.45, where Aidan OBrien's Derby entrant Ruler Of The World has been backed from 2.526/4 into 1.9110/11. The three-year-old never ran at two but looked a potential top class performer when winning at Navan last month. It's interesting that connections have wasted no time in getting him out again and stepping him up in class. On his run at Navan the extra two furlongs today is sure to suit and when you also take into account that the yard have won three of the last six running's of this race, everything points to a winning run followed by a possible crack at the Derby. I suppose the only negative is that he was put up by pricewise for the Derby yesterday, negative in the sense that any huge ante-post prices are all but gone.

We stay at Chester for their next at 15.15. Mick Channon's Sorella Bella has been a mover now 11.010/1 from 15.014/1. The filly had an international campaign last season running the three times at San Siro, winning the first of them before running second in a group 1 and 3. That was on the back of some useful performances in lesser company, so its clear she has improved with her racing. She ran in the Nell Gwyn on her seasonal debut and although she was well beaten then it's clear to see she was initially priced on the exchange on this disappointing run. That run should have blown the cobwebs away and back in handicap company she should run a big race.


Recommended Bets

Lay Enobled @ 2.707/4 Goodwood 13:55
Back Ruler Of The World @ 1.9210/11 Chester 14:45
Back Sorella Bella @ 11.010/1 Southwell 17:10

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April 30, 2013

Follow The Money: Back big mover Sharaarah to triumph at Wolverhampton

"Handler David O’Meara has earned himself a reputation for improving horses from other stables and today’s money would suggest that Sharaarah will be one to add to that list."

Back Sharaarah @ 5.14/1 Wolverhampton 16:50 

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Towcester and Wolverhampton.

Our first selection runs in the handicap hurdle at 15:00 in which Meridiem has been supported in to 5.69/2 from 10.5n/a. With all three wins to his name over course and distance plus three place efforts from just seven attempts, the gelding will be looking to make amends for his one mishap which came last week when unseating at the second. Punters clearly think that he will do so.    

On an afternoon bereft of obvious drifters Officer In Command has been weak in the 15:50 Wolverhampton, moving from an early 4.57/2 out to 5.79/2. Despite a penchant for claimers (first two all four tries) there has been significant support for his two main rivals, both of which have, unlike our selection demonstrated a liking to this course.    

Our final selection also comes at Wolverhampton where, in the 16:50 Sharaarah has shortened from 8.88/1 in to 5.14/1. Handler David O'Meara has earned himself a reputation for improving horses from other stables and today's money would suggest that this will be one to add to that list. Formerly with Ed Dunlop, the filly landed a maiden on Kempton's all weather course and also ran well in a couple of soft ground efforts before changing hands. At what is still a backable price we can't let this one get away.   

Recommended Bets

Back Meridiem @ 5.69/2 Towcester 15:00
Lay Officer In Command @ 5.79/2 Wolverhampton 15:50
Back Sharaarah @ 5.14/1 Wolverhampton 16:50 

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April 26, 2013

Follow The Money: Cash for Chil suggests Kite can fly home

Recommended Bets

Lay The Cockney Mackem @ 2.506/4 14:20 Perth
Back Chil The Kite @ 7.413/2 14:45 Sandown
Back Rivellino @ 4.57/2 16:45 Doncaster

The Follow The Money team have been scouring the markets and they've come with a selection from each of the meetings at Doncaster, Perth, and Sandown...


The Cockney Mackem has been drifting alarmingly all morning in the 14:20 at Perth. He can now be backed at 2.3611/8 from around the 1.8810/11 mark in early exchanges. This Twiston-Davies trained runner does look the one to be with on paper. However, he is rated a better chaser than hurdler, and gives the impression that he doesn't like to get his head in front too often anyway. The Cockney Mackem hasn't won a race since his bumper debut, and must rate as a lay at the price today.

Moving to Sandown now for the 14:45 Group 2 mile race where Chil The Kite has seen solid support, moving from 11.010/1 early doors to 7.413/2 currently. It's interesting to see such market confidence for a colt that, while a decent performer last year, looked just short of group level. Hughie Morrison has gained the services of Ryan Moore who enjoyed a productive time on this horse, having gained two wins from two rides on him on good ground last Summer. If we ignore his last run in November on bottomless ground in France, the selection fits the profile of an improving horse and he might just take the step up in class in his stride.

Rivellino has been just about the best backed horse of the day in the 6f handicap at Doncaster. This progressive looking inmate of Mrs Karl Burke's has been backed off the boards moving from 8.615/2 in to 4.57/2. A useful looking debut third at Ascot was followed by a flop at Ayr, though the heavy ground that day undoubtedly played its part. Rivellino got his head in front at the third time of asking at Kempton in November, with a decent performance on a fast surface. Today's good to firm going should really suit this Invincible Spirit colt and he is taken to gain a second career win on only his fourth start.


Recommended Bets

Lay The Cockney Mackem @ 2.506/4 14:20 Perth
Back Chil The Kite @ 7.413/2 14:45 Sandown
Back Rivellino @ 4.57/2 16:45 Doncaster

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April 25, 2013

Follow The Money: Kode is a cracker at Perth

"Although there are plenty with chances, the backers have shown their hand and the early money clearly favours Urban Kode."

Back Urban Kode @ 6.411/2 Perth 14:45 

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Beverley, Perth and Wolverhampton

Our first race is the 14:25 at Wolverhampton where Lilo Lil has drifted this morning from 2.942/1 to 3.711/4. After a disappointing debut she improved greatly last time out when finishing runner-up but still might not have enough to take this contest. Despite being the only runner with experience it remains to be seen if she will cope with her rivals today. Market confidence suggests not.

The next selection is in the 14:45 at Perth where Urban Kode has been steadily backed down to 6.411/2 from 9.08/1. A course and distance winner off this mark last year, he also finished a decent third behind Kings Chorister last time out and he is fancied to get the better of that rival at this venue. Although there are plenty with chances, the backers have shown their hand and the early money clearly favours our selection.

In the 15:05 at Beverley, Shebebi has had strong support to move from 3.9n/a to 2.68/5. He won his maiden in similar conditions last season and clearly didn't appreciate the cut in the ground when well beaten on his Nursery debut last time out. With plenty of quality on his dam's side he is expected to kick on this season and show the improvement needed to get home in front this afternoon.

Recommended Bets
Lay Lilo Lil @ 3.7011/4 Wolverhampton 14:25 
Back Urban Kode @ 6.4011/2 Perth 14:45 
Back Shebebi @ 2.608/5 Beverley 15:05
 

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April 10, 2013

Follow The Money: Sardanaplus the horse to back at Catterick

"Sardanaplus did finish last season with a win over this trip at Thirsk and is now 5lbs higher for that, but he has run well on both his previous reappearances."

Back Sardanapalus @ 5.1 Catterick 15:20

Welcome to Follow The Money where our three selections come from the cards at Catterick and Lingfield...

Our first selection today comes at Catterick and in the 7f Handicap at 15:20 there has been solid support for Sardanapalus who has come in to 5.2 from 8.2. This Kevin Ryan 4yo makes his seasonal debut today looking to improve on what was a mixed bag of runs last season in which he started and finished with good efforts but had plenty of ups and down in between. He did finish last season with a win over this trip at Thirsk and is now 5lbs higher for that, but he has run well on both his previous reappearances winning on debut as a 2yo and finishing a good 2nd in a better race than this at Newmarket as a 3yo, and with the drying ground definitely in his favour he looks certain to run his race today.

Next up is the day's negative which comes in Lingfield's 7f Handicap at 15:30. The horse in question is King Bertie who has eased in the betting out to 3.211/5 having been as low as 2.25n/a. He got off the mark at the second attempt when odds on in an average maiden at this course back in February. He is now put straight into handicap company; his mark looks fair but this looks quite a competitive affair with some similarly lightly raced, potential improvers in opposition including one for Richard Hannon and one for Luca Cumani which has been strongly supported. So whilst the selections should be thereabouts he could be worth taking on today.

For our final selection we stay at Lingfield for our second selection which comes in the 1m Handicap at 17:00 and goes by the name of Refreshestheparts, who has shortened in to 2.546/4 from 3.39/4. Only the four runners take their chance in this but the market suggests it should be fought out between the selection and Yojojo both of whom are looking to follow up last time out victories. The selection has been a consistent sort recently winning 3 of her last 5 and she had excuses for the other two. She is giving weight away to all 3 rivals but the booking of Richard Hughes could be significant and the money down suggests she could get her head in front again.

Recommended Bets

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/horse-racing/market?id=1.108920178 
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/horse-racing/market?id=1.108920164 
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/horse-racing/market?id=1.108920170
 

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Follow The Money: This is not the time for Another Claret

"Spanish Duke has been hammered from 8.27/1 in to 5.49/2 in one of the day's big gambles."

Back Spanish Duke @ 5.49/2 16:15 Pontefract 

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Southwell, Pontefract and Carlisle

We start at Southwell for the 14:30 where odds-on backers should be very wary about Another Claret who has been on the drift from 1.68/13 out to 1.9620/21. The opposition looks moderate but there's no guarantee he's any good either having bombed on his final start last season on his handicap debut. He has never been to the course and his best run was on a sound surface so the deep fibresand surface may prove problematic. He's likely to get the trip but how he handles the surface is up for debate and hopefully get us off to a good start.

We go to Carlisle now where there has been money for John Wade's Takaatuf in the 14:50. Initially trading at 11.010/1 but now available to back at a more realistic 8.07/1 with the ground very much in his favour. The trip has been too much for him on the last two outings and though he found very little last time on an easy track it may be that front-running over a stiff 2 miles will be ideal. His run two starts back was especially eye-catching - staying on behind Home Run who went on to perform well in a much better grade. There are plenty of unexposed types against this 16-race maiden but there's not a lot to really get excited about and it looks a nice opportunity for Takaatuf to finally land a win.

Our final bet comes from Pontefract where, in the 16:15, Spanish Duke has been well supported on his first start for Brian Ellison. He has been hammered from 8.27/1 in to 5.49/2 in one of the day's big gambles. There is an awful lot to like about this classy individual who is 13 pounds lower than his peak rating - the ground is fine and Ellison should at least get the horse to hold his level, if not improve him, after leaving John Dunlop. The first time hood will certainly suit as he's a horse who can be keen. His last win was from two pounds higher and though that was two years ago it was first time out so he can be trained to perform off a break.


Recommended Bets
Lay Another Claret @ 1.9620/21 14:30 Southwell 
Back Takaatuf @ 8.07/1 14:50 Carlisle 
Back Spanish Duke @ 5.49/2 16:15 Pontefract 

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April 9, 2013

Follow The Money: Cash for Rosebud suggests it's all Yellow

Recommended Bets

Back Coach House @ 2.226/5 Curragh 14:10
Lay Village Vic @ 3.45n/a Ascot 14:15
Back Yellow Rosebud @ 5.95/1 Curragh 15:20

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Ascot and Curragh...


Our first selection runs in the opener at Curragh today, the Irish Stallion European Breeders Fund Maiden at 14:10. This is a race that the powerful Aidan O'Brien stable do target, having sent out the favourite in the last three renewals and the winner in two of those races. Today's event looks like no exception with the unraced Coach House having been backed this morning from 3.185/40 in to 2.226/5 and with the trainer's son, Joseph, looking to repeat last year's success, when aboard Infanta Branca, all the stats favour the jolly.

To Ascot now and today's lay which comes in the shape of Village Vic in the maiden at 14:15. Having been matched for money at 2.829/5 Philip Hobbs' charge has drifted out to 3.45n/a. The gelding's early season form when second to The New One stands up to close scrutiny but, having disappointed at the festival when beaten 44 lengths, it is not surprising that, at the price, Village Vic is being taken on today.

We're back over the water for our final selection and in the Curragh Group 3 7f race at 15:20 Yellow Rosebud has been quietly supported from 7.413/2 in to 5.95/1. With several wins in this grade last year, the filly was sent off odds on when beaten on her seasonal debut but did not show her best when beaten by Rehn's Nest. Today's money suggests that she will be spot on for this race and that bigger things are expected of her.


Recommended Bets

Back Coach House @ 2.226/5 Curragh 14:10
Lay Village Vic @ 3.45n/a Ascot 14:15
Back Yellow Rosebud @ 5.95/1 Curragh 15:20


Gary Naylor

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