Showing posts with label Could. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Could. Show all posts
January 11, 2014
December 24, 2013
October 5, 2013
May 19, 2013
La Liga Preview: Emery could leave Sociedad biting their nails
"Over 2.5 Goals has been the right bet in 7/8 Sevilla home games and 8/13 Sociedad away matches"
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75/7
The Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan is the setting for the biggest game of La Liga's ante-penultimate weekend. Tobias Gourlay reckons in-form Sevilla's clash with fading Sociedad will be fun...
Zaragoza v Athletic Bilbao
Sunday 18:00
Zaragoza 1.910/11 Athletic 4.3100/30 draw 3.9n/a
Athletic are unbeaten in four and the seven points accrued in that run will likely keep their 'never been relegated' boasts alive.
Just to be sure, Marcelo Bielsa's men need one more point from the final three rounds of the season.
Seven points from nine have fired Zaragoza out of the relegation zone, but they need more wins.
Athletic have scored in 12/14 on the road and conceded in 12/14 on the road.
Zaragoza have been potent in attack recently - scoring six in two at La Romareda - and porous in defence all season, shutting out their visitors in only 3/17.
Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.84/5
Barcelona v Valladolid
Sunday 20:00
Barcelona 1.3130/100 Valladolid 11.010/1 draw 6.611/2
Barcelona are champions and are now playing for the artificial prize of equalling Real Madrid's all-time points record (100, set last year).
To make three figures Tito Vilanova's men must win each of their last three games.
Leo Messi will sit out the rest of the season, but other team news is scant.
We'll focus on the other end of the pitch. Valladolid have scored in nine straight rounds of La Liga and in each of the last 17 in which talismanic wide-forward Patrick Ebert has appeared.
Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.774/5
Granada v Osasuna
Saturday 19:00
Granada 2.186/5 Osasuna 4.216/5 draw 3.259/4
Together on 36 points, these two are four clear of the drop zone.
A draw would be useful to both, and respect the improvements they have recently shown: Osasuna beat Getafe last time out, while Granada are unbeaten in four.
That said, the hosts still have La Liga's worst home record (W4-D6-L7) and haven't scored more than once in any of Lucas Alcaraz's seven matches at Los Carmenes.
We're ready to take them on - and will front up with either the straight draw or a bet that goes even further.
The visitors have scored twice or more in 3/6 on the road. Backing Osasuna 0 & +0.5 on the Asian Handicap pays out on half your stake if the game finishes all-square and you'll get a full payout if the away side take all three points.
Recommended Bet
Back Osasuna 0 & +0.5 @ 2.26/5
Sevilla v Sociedad
Saturday 21:00
Sevilla 2.0811/10 Sociedad 3.613/5 draw 4.03/1
In the race for Spain's final Champions League spot, Real Sociedad have given up a five-point lead over Valencia in the last couple of weeks.
Problems are arising at the back: Philippe Montanier's side have conceded exactly twice in 5/7 home and away.
Unai Emery has won 7/8 at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan. In all seven wins Sevilla have been ahead by half-time. If you fancy them to confirm Sociedad's loss of form, take them at 3.613/5 in the Half Time/Full Time market.
Over 2.5 Goals is a safer play. It's been the right bet in 7/8 Sevilla home games and 8/13 Sociedad away matches.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75/7
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March 18, 2013
Italian Football: Dismayed Conte could leave Juventus
Antonio Conte: "If I have to expect a welcome like this in Bologna, then I say that it really makes me want to leave Italy and go abroad. It must be a simpler life elsewhere."
Despite leading Juventus to the top of Serie A last season and the Champions League quarter-finals this, Antonio Conte could head abroad in the summer, writes Christian Crowther...
Juventus' outspoken manager Antonio Conte was acknowledged by Jose Mourinho himself as Italy's very own Special One at the beginning of this campaign.
The Real Madrid manager was quoted in Tuttosport in September saying: "The fans call Conte the Italian Special One? I like that. I feel honoured. He is a bit like me... I like Conte a lot as a coach. He knows what he wants and is a real winner. He has a lot of charisma."
This was high praise indeed from his Portuguese counterpart. However, while Mourinho is probably still unmatched in the charisma stakes, Conte's immediate success as manager of the club he won every domestic and European honour with as a player has quite rightly pushed the Italian to prominence.
After delivering the scudetto in an unbeaten debut season in the dugout in 2011/12, Conte has now set Juventus on course for successive titles - currently nine points clear of Napoli and rated at 1.071/14 to finish the job.
In Europe meanwhile, his Juve side have already helped account for the demise of holders Chelsea and now face a last-eight tie against Bayern Munich, where the Italians are available at 2.6613/8 to qualify.
Rather ironically, it looks as if Conte could well be among the forerunners to replace Mourinho at the Bernabeu if, as is widely expected, the Portuguese coach leaves at the end of the season.
Certain events in Italy this season, and subsequent comments from Conte himself, have cast real doubt over whether he will remain in Turin as manager next season, putting both Real Madrid and Chelsea's owners on red alert.
Earlier in the season, he responded to media speculation linking him with a move abroad by issuing comments claiming that it had always been his ambition to one day coach abroad.
There have also been a number of outbursts. Never one to shy away from the issue, Conte attacked Bianconeri fans last month for jeering forward Sebastian Giovinco.
Now, speculation has intensified to a new level after Conte's latest comments made after his team's trip to Bologna on Saturday night.
The Italian tactician was disgruntled at criticism of his enthusiastic celebrations towards the end of the 2-0 victory, believing that Bologna fans throwing sticks and rocks at the team bus prior to entering the stadium was a far graver crime.
Conte, who has already made reference to the war-like situation between rival fans, exclaimed: "If I have to expect a welcome like this in Bologna, then I say that it really makes me want to leave Italy and go abroad. It must be a simpler life elsewhere. We are not at war, here. This is sport. In this situation, you may as well just leave."
Interestingly, despite leapfrogging Tottenham in the Premier League and securing a Europa League quarter-final for Chelsea, Rafa Benitez is still rated at 1.041/25 not to be at Stamford Bridge next season. Could it be Conte replacing him?
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March 6, 2013
Man United: Real Madrid exit could end Fergie's reign
"At the ripe old age of 71, you have to question Ferguson's desire to go through the kind of express agony he would have felt at the final whistle last night and will continue to feel for some weeks to come."
Silence speaks louder than words for Sir Alex Ferguson and Christian Crowther believes the great man may now call time on his illustrious career at the end of the season...
You have to feel for Sir Alex Ferguson, for nearly sixty minutes his Real Madrid master plan had been rolled out to near-perfection.
The tie was still very much in the balance but, at 1-0, United seemingly had Real where they wanted them.
Of course we all know what happened next. Now poor old Fergie is understandably distraught and well he might be after seeing possibly his last chance to win a third Champions League trophy slip through his fingers.
On the other side of the coin, following their triumph Jose Mourinho's side are now 3.412/5 favourites to lift the trophy at Wembley in May.
And just to add salt to the wound, Sir Alex's decision to leave Wayne Rooney out of the starting XI may yet be the sting in the tail in the long term.
From a tactical perspective, the decision - up until the sending off - actually looked perfectly vindicated with Danny Welbeck turning in another brilliant display.
However, Rooney's omission may well now stir up previous ill feelings and renew speculation that the England man could move on in the summer, perhaps even to arch rivals Manchester City if you listen to the brasher rumour peddlers.
At the ripe old age of 71, you have to question Ferguson's desire to go through the kind of express agony he would have felt at the final whistle last night and will continue to feel for some weeks to come.
Earlier comparisons to his treble-winning class of 1999 showed exactly the sort of faith Sir Alex had placed in this group of players, so to be knocked out in this cruel fashion will have inflicted a heavy toll.
The fact that the Scot has yet to comment at all on United's exit is a barometer of his anguish, preferring instead to let assistant Mike Phelan speak to the world's media.
Now, a domestic double is the best Fergie can hope for and, although that shouldn't be scoffed at, adding another European Cup has long been the burning desire for the great man.
To lose out again, and in such cruel fashion, could act as the catalyst to Fergie's curtain call at Old Trafford.
The Red Devils have the small matter of a tie against Chelsea to contend with this Sunday, which they are currently rated at 1.855/6 to win.
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January 30, 2013
Suarez could replace Balotelli if Liverpool miss top four
"There is virtually no chance of tempting Suarez away before the deadline, though even Steven Gerrard has recently alluded that the striker deserves Champions League football."
With the news of Mario Balotelli's departure back to Italy, Christian Crowther takes a look at who the champions could get in as a late replacement...
The news of Mario Balotelli's imminent arrival at AC Milan has created a sense of national mourning from English football fans and media alike.
But while others are left contemplating a Balotelli-less future with heavy hearts, Mario's surrogate father, Roberto Mancini, will be scanning the transfer landscape for another son to adopt.
If reports are to be believed, Manchester City's near-bottomless coffers will be boosted to the tune of around £20 million from the sale of the eccentric striker.
However, time is clearly ticking for them to flex their financial muscle and replace Balotelli during this window. If Mancini has been lining someone up all along then the Italian has done an exceptional job to keep it on the down low.
Of course the calibre of replacements would have to be extremely high and the two names which have been linked the heaviest certainly fit into that bracket.
However, to prise either Edinson Cavani or Radamel Falcao away from their clubs at this stage may prove a difficult task in the little time remaining in the window.
Napoli's top scorer Cavani is involved in a title push in Italy, just three points behind Juventus at present and rated at 4.67/2 for the scudetto, so a move now would be highly unlikely.
Likewise, Falcao's team Atletico have the chance of making history by finishing above city rivals Real for the first time since 1995/96 and, at the very least, look like making the Champions League for the first time since 2009/10.
As well as the race against time, Man City do not have the lure of Champions League football to attract these big players this season either, making a summer transfer by far the most likely scenario.
Another player on the radar and much closer to home is Liverpool's Luis Suarez. Again, there is virtually no chance of tempting the Uruguayan away before the deadline, though even Steven Gerrard has recently alluded that the striker deserves Champions League football.
At this point, Liverpool look big outsiders to make the top-four spots - available at around 9.417/2 - before their trip to the Emirates on Wednesday night.
If the Reds fail to make it, a Suarez move could be a real possibility.
January 6, 2013
BDO World Championship Tips: Wilson could Bully no.1 seed out of the tournament
"Wilson has beat Bunting on two of the three occasions that they crossed paths in 2012."
Back Wilson +1.5 sets @ 2.01/1
Jaymes Monte picks out his best bet from Sunday's Lakeside action as the 2013 BDO World Championships roll into a second day...
Having failed to qualify for last year's BDO World Championships Stephen Bunting heads into this staging of the event as the number one seed and second favourite for the title. The Bullet won the 2012 World Masters, 2012 Zuiderduin Masters and multiple smaller events over the past 12 months to catapult himself up the rankings and into contention for Lakeside glory.
But number one seeds don't have a particularly good track record at Frimley Green and Bunting has been handed a tricky opening round draw against an in-form James Wilson.
Wilson, a Bullseye winner more than two decades ago, has only recently picked up his darts again but is already beginning to make waves in the BDO. The 40-year-old reached the quarter-finals of the 2012 World Masters by beating Alan Norris and Scott Mitchell, amongst others, and has won the Jersey Classic and England GP of Darts Grand Final this season. He has also beat Bunting on two of the three occasions that they crossed paths in 2012, including in the Lancashire Open final.
As number one seed you'd expect Bunting to be the strong favourite, but he is too short at odds of 1.364/11 given the class of his opponent, and can be taken on in both the Match Odds and Handicap markets.
Wilson +1.5 sets is a 2.01/1 chance and the 3.613/5 about him going on to win the match is simply too big.
Recommended Bets:
Back Wilson to beat Bunting @ 3.65n/a
Back Wilson +1.5 sets @ 2.01/1
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August 24, 2012
1st ODI Betting: Batsmen could suffer Cardiff blues
"In eight completed first-innings, the average score has been 231"
Lay the side batting first for 250 or more at around 2.809/5
Ed Hawkins, the SJA Betting Writer of the Year, previews the first match between England and South Africa at Cardiff on Friday
England
The home side are without Stuart Broad after taking the decision to rest the Twenty20 captain ahead of next month's World Cup. It is a slightly odd decision as there is plenty of time before the Sri Lanka stint and it deprives them of a fine bowler.
Instead Chris Woakes could be given a run. He has caught the eye for Warwickshire this season and is deserving of an opportunity to prove himself.
Ravi Bopara, returned to the fold after a hiatus for personal reasons, is in no form whatsoever and failed in a guest appearance for Gloucestershire against the South Africans on Wednesday. It would be a surprise if he played.
South Africa
South Africa have long been the masters of the bits and pieces one-day player. And there are plenty in this squad which form a formidable-looking jigsaw. Albie Morkel, who could biff one over the border, is a tantalising, yet often disappointing, all-rounder, while Robin Peterson, Ryan McLaren and Wayne Parnell are all fine operators in this format.
Venue and conditions
Sophia Gardens in Cardiff is something of a friend of gamblers. It is so darn reliable. Usually we can expect some wet weather and a difficult batting pitch. Throw in a toss bias and we're like pigs in mud.
If you subscribe to the view that gamblers should stick to what they know, then turn off the brain. Sophia Gardens is tricky for batsmen and we are looking to play the innings runs market. In eight completed first-innings, the average score has been 231. The highest total was by India against England last year but previous to that only Pakistan (in 2001) have managed 250 or more.
Runs have been short supply in the three CB40 matches there, too - 173, 151 and 227 have been the first-dig totals.
Better still, with rain forecast either a reduced-overs affair or a stop-start mind muddle for batsmen points to a low-scoring contest. Lay the side batting first for 250 or more at around the 2.809/5 mark.
Match odds
Hell, we could be here all day debating the respective merits of these two sides - England bat deeper, South Africa have the smarter crew - but it pales into insignificance when you consider the toss bias. Yup, it's a cracker, too.
In the seven matches which have produced results each have been won by the side chasing. Bonkers I know but it is impossible, not to mention pure folly, to ignore.
England are 2.1211/10 and South Africa are 1.8910/11. The toss is a fifty-fifty call. Or a 2.001/1 shot. So who is the value? Corrrect. It's England. Easy this betting lark really.
Top England runscorer
In batting conditions which are testing, it is not surprising that one would eschew the flashy strokemakers. So sorry, Bell, Bairstow, Bopara and Kieswetter, stodge is what we want. Alastair Cook and Jonathan Trott both dropped anchor for half-tons last time out at this venue against India and you can't go far wrong by favouring them again.
Top South Africa runscorer
We should apply the same rule from the England market. Hashim Amla and Graeme Smith are expected to open the batting and both have techniques tight enough to warrant support. Dean Elgar showed form against Gloucestershire but wasn't quite in tune so will probably miss out. Shame Jacques Kallis is not playing, though, as he would have been well-supported.
Recommended bet
Lay the side batting first for 250 or more at around 2.809/5
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July 16, 2012
Betfair King George: 12 could line up for stellar renewal
The Betfair-sponsored showpiece looks like being a very strong renewal...
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner Danedream will have her first start in England on Saturday when she contests the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot...
The Betfair-sponsored showpiece looks like being a very strong renewal with dual Coronation Cup winner St Nicholas Abbey, last year's winner and Eclipse hero Nathaniel and Melbourne Cup hero Dunaden all among 12 possibles.
Following her victory in the Arc, the Peter Schiergen-trained Danedream finished sixth in the Japan Cup but returned with an easy win at Baden-Baden in May.
She then travelled back to France for the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud but could only manage fourth to Meandre.
Schiergen believes there were excuses that day and expects a bold display this weekend.
"We are coming over to Ascot for Saturday," said Schiergen.
"Nothing went right for her at Saint-Cloud, they went very slow early on and that didn't suit.
"She prefers a strong gallop and that is usually what you get in England.
"Everything has gone well since her last race.
"Soft ground would not bother her at all, she handles it very well indeed so if it was very soft that would not change anything."
John Gosden has left in Nathaniel, who won the Eclipse just two weeks ago, and he will be looking for back-to-back King George wins. Gosden could also run last year's St Leger winner Masked Marvel.
St Nicholas Abbey has been ante-post favourite for some time on the back of his impressive display at Epsom. Stablemates Windsor Palace and Robin Hood could help make the pace.
Dunaden will be reunited with Australian jockey Craig Williams, who partnered him to victory in the Geelong Cup and the Hong Kong Vase.
"Basically, Sheikh Fahad (owner) decided that whoever was to ride the horse in the Arc was to ride him in all his races between now and then, which almost definitely ruled out Christophe (Lemaire)," racing manager David Redvers told At The Races.
"Craig has won his only two starts on the horse, he knows him well and was prepared to make the sacrifice and commitment to come all the way from Australia to ride the horse whenever he ran.
"He rode Ortensia at Royal Ascot and Cay Verde for us. He spent a lot of time with Mick Channon and knows the tracks well.
"Craig is an extraordinary jockey. He's a little bit like a Flat equivalent of AP (McCoy) in that I expect he makes an incredibly boring husband as he comes home and pours over videos after videos."
Reliable Man is another interesting contender from France after his fast-finishing fourth in the Prince of Wales's Stakes while his Alain de Royer-Dupre stablemate Shareta is another still engaged.
Sea Moon, such an impressive winner of the Hardwicke, will aim to follow in the footsteps of his former stablemate Harbinger for Sir Michael Stoute.
Tom Dascombe's Brown Panther is an intended runner for Michael Owen while the Japanese challenger Deep Brillante, winner of the Japanese Derby, is another fascinating contender.
Danedream currently heads the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings for Saturday's contest considered 3 lb superior to Nathaniel with her gender allowance. St Nicholas Abbey currently trades as favourite for the King George, however, available to back at 4.03/1.
Get open access to Timeform data for just £2.50 a day with Timeform Race Passes. It's like a Form Book, Black Book & Race Card all in one! Find Out More!
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April 1, 2012
Euro 2012 Betting: If the cohesion is there Italy could be very dangerous
Euro 2012 
/ Dave Farrar / 01 April 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Some familiar faces in Italy's line-up including Andrea Pirlo and Gianluigi Buffon
"They may not be at Spain and Germany’s level, but don’t expect the mess of Lippi Mark Two. "
After the disaster at the last World Cup, Italy have rebuilt under Cesare Prandelli and are once again looking the composed, disciplined and organised side we expect them to be, says Dave Farrar.
Spain at [3.75] and Germany at [4.4] dominate the betting in the Euro 2012 winner market. Those prices are probably about right for two outstanding teams, but it's our job in the build up to the tournament to find something approaching a value bet, and maybe a way to take on the big two.
I can't have England at [10.5] in a month of Sundays, and my colleague Ben Lyttleton will eloquently make the case for the Netherlands elsewhere, but both Italy and France strike me as interesting propositions at prices of [16.0] and [14.5] respectively
We'll take a detailed look at France in a couple of weeks time, but what of Prandelli's Italy? The Azzurri have a tough group, starting off against the World Champions, before facing Croatia and then a potential second-place decider against Giavanni Trappatoni and the Republic of Ireland.
It plays into Italy's favour that Spain are first up: think back to World Cup 2010 and how long it took the eventual winners to get into their stride. There's every chance that nine of Spain's starting eleven will have been involved in the Champions League final a month before, and while that tells you everything that you need to know about their quality, it also emphasises the pressures of a long La Liga and Champions League campaign. Del Bosque's team may not be at their freshest, even three weeks on, and have showed enough frailty in the last couple of years to suggest that they may be a lay against the Italians at [1.66].
Italy waltzed through an easy qualifying group, winning eight of their ten games and conceding only two goals. The nature of the teams that they overcame, though, as well as a poor performance at the last World Cup, means that Italy aren't being given much of a chance by anyone. Claudio Prandelli's has been a rebuilding job, though, and he has done it quietly and efficiently. They may not be at Spain and Germany's level, but don't expect the mess of Lippi Mark Two.
Juventus remain unbeaten and defensively solid at the time of writing, and they will provide the solid base of the Azzurri in Poland and Ukraine. Now that he's seemingly injury-free, Gigi Buffon can still justifiably be called the best goalkeeper in the world, and while he doesn't have a Franco Baresi style backline in front of him, he does have team mates to rely on. Andrea Barzagli and Giorgio Chiellini of Juventus will almost certainly start at centre half, with a third member of Antonio Conte's side, Leonardo Bonucci waiting in reserve. This will be a well-marshalled side that will make itself very hard to beat. A long way from the disjointed farce that was the match against Slovakia in Johannesburg.
Daniele De Rossi will be Italy's key player. If you consider the troubles at Roma this season, with the implementation of a series of new systems by Luis Enrique, and the addition of young players to the squad, then De Rossi's steady performances have been sensational. There's nothing spectacular about him, but his positional awareness and mental strength make him look like a sixth former joining in a playground kickabout. He'll be Italy's leader and their driving force, and any injury or suspension that affects him should lead to us laying the men in blue. He'll be joined in the centre of midfield by another Juve pair, Andrea Pirlo and Claudio Marchisio, and that's a trio that I like. The accusation thrown at Pirlo is always that he can't run, but Arturo Vidal and Marchisio have done his running for him this season at Juve, allowing Pirlo to pass the opposition to death. Replace Vidal with De Rossi and you have the perfect midfield 3 for the 4-3-3 system that Prandelli likes.
The biggest questions, as always seems to be the case with the Italians, surround their forward options. Mario Balotelli is the highest profile name, and he'll certainly make the squad, but Balotelli's moods seem so impossible to calculate, that I won't be rushing to back him in the Italy top scorer market. Claudio Prandelli has already made it clear that he will wait for as long as possible to hear news of the fitness of both Giuseppe Rossi and Antonio Cassano. Rossi seems likely to make it, Cassano less so.
And that leaves a whole host of players who could be vying for a place in Prandelli's front 3. Simone Pepe of Juve will go, as will Inter's Giampaolo Pazzini, purely because he fulfils the "big guy" role, as does Alessandro Matri. Fabio Borini of Roma will sneak into the squad if he keeps up his current form, and may end up starting, while other names to consider are Roma's Osvaldo, Sebastian Giovinco of Parma, the old stagers Di Natale and Gilardino, and even the brilliant young Mattia Destro of Siena.
The confusion surrounding Italy's strikers leads us to a possible bet, and certainly something on which to keep an eye. Italy fit the profile of a team that will struggle to score goals, and yet give themselves a chance of progressing. And that's where closer inspection of their challenge at previous tournaments makes for interesting reading.
It's rare that the Azzurri produce a player with the profile of tournament top scorer, and it has generally only taken two goals to become Italy's top scorer at any given tournament. In the 2010 World Cup, there were four different goalscorers (including De Rossi) and three different players found the back of the net at Euro 2008. When Italy won the World Cup in 2006 there were NINE different goalscorers, and the two joint top scorers were the predictable Luca Toni and the outsider Marco Materazzi.
Italy only scored three goals in Euro 2004, with Cassano top man with two. In short, two goals may well be enough to be Italy's top scorer at Euro 2012, and even one may result in a share of the win. Balotelli will surely be favourite, Rossi possibly joint with him, and there may well be the chance to back one of the outsiders at a decent price.
Marchisio has been in surprising goalscoring form at Juve, De Rossi, even when he is deep lying, can hurt teams from set plays. And even a player like Antonio Nocerino, who will surely feature at some stage, will be worthy of consideration.
Italy's challenge won't be thrilling to watch, and the team is certainly still a work in progress, but they'll provide us with betting opportunities, and shouldn't be written off as potential winners. They have the class, but as ever with the Azzurri, it's cohesion which will either make them champions or cost them dearly.
Roberto Soldado proved that he is Spain's best alternative if David Villa fails to recover in time for Euro 2012 with a second-half hat-trick against Venezuela......
Many of the same players from the last World Cup are still there but after harsh criticism last time out, there's a new philosophy to the way Netherlands are looking to play the game and they're justifiedly favourites to go...
After making Serie A history at the weekend, a clamour is growing for Francesco Totti to be handed a place in Italy's Euro 2012 squad......
March 29, 2012
Against All Odds: 'Mattress Makers' could send us to sleep
Against All Odds / Paul Robinson / 29 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Will you be betting Against All Odds today?
"I expect Madrid to try and keep things tight and not concede a dreaded away goal, as Hannover are in fine form in their own backyard. "
Atletico Madrid host Hannover tonight in the first leg of their Europa League quarter final. The market is leaning towards this one being a high scoring affair but Paul Robinson believes that the defences will come out on top.
Atletico Madrid qualified for this stage of the competition courtesy of a 6-1 aggregate hammering of Turkish side Besiktas. It's been an impressive European campaign to date as they knocked out Lazio in the previous round and came through a tricky group that featured Udinese, Stade Rennes and Celtic.
Diego Simeone took over the side mid-season and he has instilled a bit more discipline in them, as under the previous regime, Atletico were a tad inconsistent. The wonderfully nicknamed 'Mattress Makers' are in eighth place in La Liga and they will do well to qualify for Europe next season through the league, so their best bet is actually winning this competition. While they do have the highly touted Radamel Falcao in their line up, I expect Simeone to try and keep things tight and not concede a dreaded away goal, as Hannover are in fine form in their own backyard.
Hannover qualified for the quarter finals by defeating Standard Liege 6-2 on aggregate, wrapping up the tie with a 4-0 home win Mirko Slomka's men are only eighth domestically though and like Atletico, they are by no means guaranteed to be back in this, or any other European competition next season.
This is the first time that The Reds have been in the Europa League and looking at their results away from the AWD-Arena, half of them have gone under 2.5 goals, with one even going under 1.5. The Germans have also restricted their opponents to one goal or less in four of their six away matches and the two times they conceded more, it was only two goals.
I very rarely suggest a lay of over 2.5 goals as I don't enjoy watching a game and hoping it's boring, and while the stats don't overly point in my favour in this one, I just have a feeling that Atletico are going to stifle Hannover by keeping it incredibly tight. Unders is currently trading at around [1.83] which seems a tad too short, so I have to make it my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay Over 2.5 goals in Atletico Madrid v Hannover @ [1.83]
Bayern Munich travel to France this evening for the first leg of their Champions League tie with Marseille. The Germans are odds-on to pick up the victory but Paul Robinson thinks that the result isn't that clear cut. Everton dominated...
Sunderland take on Everton in an FA Cup Quarter Final replay this evening with the winner facing Liverpool in the semis. Sunderland are odds-on to qualify but Paul Robinson has a sneaky feeling that Everton are going to set up...
Granada host Sevilla tonight in Spain's La Liga. Under 2.5 goals is trading at [1.87] but Paul Robinson believes that that's far too short given how six of Granada's last seven at home have had three goals or more....
Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Decoy could be the real thing
Timeform Radio Tip / Dan Barber / 29 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Will be David Pipe be smiling after the 16:30 at Ffos Las?
" Decoy failed to make the cut in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham, but there's redemption on the cards for father and son this afternoon."
Finally some proper jumps racing! Dan Barber has a bet at both Newcastle and Ffos Las this afternoon
Just when it appeared - thanks to much warmer weather and vastly reduced runner numbers - that summer jumping was grabbing National Hunt fans by the proverbials, Ffos Las and Newcastle emerge with healthy field sizes and some competitive fare. And there looks to be a bet at both.
Newcastle's 15:45 doesn't fall into the big-field category, but it does feature a potentially cracking back-to-lay opportunity in the shape of Flying Squad, whose strong-travelling ways have been very much in evidence during his very solid start for Rose Dobbin.
In two runs for Dobbin spaced four months apart, Flying Squad has shown much improved form, and none travelled better when he was third to Douglas Julian at Ayr latterly. With a likely strong pace to run at thanks to Carrietau and Something Silver, plus the hope his latest run will put him spot on now, Flying Squad should provide a free-bet or green-book trading opportunity.
It's almost two weeks since the field were lining up for Cheltenham's concluding handicap hurdle of the Festival, in the race named after the great Martin Pipe. And in the run up to the meeting, few horses caught the eye as potential winners of that race to the same extent as Decoy, trained incidentally by Martin's son David.
Decoy has shown all his best form around two-and-a-half miles, including when pushing handicap-blot Featherbed Lane all the way at Ascot in the autumn, and the way he shaped over an apparently unsuitable three miles at Doncaster last month - he was virtually last off the bridle in a race that's proved very strong form - suggests he's bang ready to recapture that sort of form.
If that's the case, then none look better handicapped, and expect to see a switch back to the forcing tactics that suit this enthusiastic type so well. Decoy failed to make the cut in the Martin Pipe, but there's redemption on the cards for father and son this afternoon.
Recommended Bets
Back Flying Squad in the 15:45 at Newcastle @ [4.2], with view to laying in-running at around [2.3]
Back Decoy in the 16:30 at Ffos Las @ [4.0]
Rory Delargy joins presenter Paul Jacobs on Timeform Radio on a fairly busy day with jumps action at Taunton and Ludlow, and AW cards at Lingfield and Kempton. Here are his best bets....
Timeform's Martin Dixon makes the picks today with one on the Flat at Southwell and t'other over obstacles at Hereford......
Timeform Radio pundit David Cleary looks at today's Towcester card for his recommended bets...
March 27, 2012
Sunderland v Everton Bets: This could go the distance
FA Cup / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Tim'll fix it. Cahill loves playing Sunderland.
"Still, I can’t ignore that stat that says Sunderland haven’t found a way to beat Everton over the years so a lay of the hosts at 2.5 is the bet."
These are two of the most evenly-matched teams in the country and splitting them isn't easy, so bet accordingly. But if it goes all the way to penalties, there's only one team to side with, says Jamie Pacheco.
Match Odds
There's not much to choose between these two whichever way you look at it. I'm not sure who I'd take between Martin O'Neill and David Moyes as a manager. They're tied on points in the league table; they have squads of similar strength; they both won at the weekend; and they drew 1-1 on both occasions they've played this season, the latest of which was at Goodison Park ten days ago. The same match that means we've got a replay here. Furthermore, Opta tell us that it's three draws from the last four between these two.
But a further stat from our number crunching-friends sticks out like a sore thumb. Everton have gone on an amazing run of 16 matches without tasting defeat against their north-eastern opponents. Even if we consider that O'Neill is probably a better manager than anyone else Sunderland had in charge during that time and that this probably a stronger XI than they've had throughout most of that period, that record against Tuesday night's opponents must be at the back of hosts' minds somewhere.
Moyes' decision to play a weakened side against Liverpool to spare his players for their big FA Cup tie four days later backfired in more ways than one. Not only did he lose that match convincingly but the same players who had been given the night off looked rusty rather than rested for the FA Cup game.
No repeat of that this time round. The Scot picked his best possible team for Saturday's trip to Swansea and his reward was a 2-0 win over a side who had won their last four league matches, which included the scalp of then league leaders Manchester City. I'd expect a very similar team to start again on Tuesday night, though Marouane Felliani might get the nod over Darren Gibson in the heart of midfield, just to add a little more bite.
Lee Cattermole is still suspended after his sending-off at home to Newcastle for showing a little too much bite and an equal amount of stupidity and lack of self-restraint. Whoever Moyes decides to play at right-back (either Tony Hibbert or Phil Neville) would be well-advised to drink a nice mug of camomile tea before they go to bed or take something else to help them sleep. The prospect of having to contain the impressive James McClean doesn't make for a restful night's sleep.
Still, I can't ignore that stat that says Sunderland haven't found a way to beat Everton over the years so a lay of the hosts at [2.5] is the bet.
Method of Victory
With the draw such a strong runner in terms of the outcome after 90 minutes, it may pay to speculate as to what might happen if this game does go beyond 90 minutes. The team who is distinctly fitter or has superior options on the bench has the better chance of winning it.
But once again, we find it hard to split these two teams when it comes to that either, so I'm not sure we'd find a winner after even 120 minutes. Onto penalties we go and here it's Everton who are clearly the stronger of the two. In 2009 they knocked Manchester United out of the FA on penalties at Wembley and last year they knocked out Chelsea in the same competition at Stamford Bridge, again on penalties. Sunderland's memories of shoot-outs aren't so great. In 2009 they went out of the Carling Cup by this method against Aston Villa and in 2004 they fell at the final hurdle when up against Ian Dowie's Crystal Palace for the right to be promoted to the Premier League. Tim Howard's experience of handling the occasion may be the difference if this match does indeed go the distance. Everton are [14.0] to win on penalties.
First Goalscorer
Gone are the days when Tim Cahill seemed to score every other week with a trademark header after a late run into the box. His return of just one goal from almost 30 starts in the league is proof of that. But he certainly likes playing Sunderland and has scored three times against them in his last five matches, including the equaliser ten days ago in this same fixture. He'll be around [10.0] to open the scoring which is a far better price than we would have got a few years back and it's worth taking the chance he can come up with the goods when it most matters.
Best Bet
Recommended Bet
Back Everton to win on penalties in the Qualifying Method market
This will inevitably be a difficult evening for all concerned but Tottenham's goodwill is not likely to extend long beyond the first whistle......
It's been a traumatic weekend and Ralph Ellis, like everybody else, is thinking about Fabrice Muamba and his family. Here, our man considers results in the FA Cup and Premier League......
It was a good day for the Anfield club who got past Stoke and enjoyed a favourable draw...
March 7, 2012
Six Nations Betting: Young England backs could upset France
General / Ralph Ellis / 06 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Can England's youngsters take the fight to France this Sunday?
Danny Care is in trouble again but, on the pitch, Ralph Ellis believes that English rugby could have something to celebrate this weekend...
Danny Care does not have a drink problem - at least not according to Stuart Lancaster. The Harlequins scrum-half, who should have been playing the same role for England, has just been nicked for his third alcohol-related misdemeanour in a matter of months. But Lancaster says his problems are about "making bad decisions" rather than because of a reliance on drink. You hope that England's interim manager is just being diplomatic in public, because if he really thinks that, then he's kidding himself as well as everybody else.
When I talked to Danny for Betfair's Big Interview at the start of the World Cup back in November, I thought he was a smashing young man. He dealt with his own injury, which had robbed him of the chance to play in New Zealand, with great humour, and he spoke with insight about the prospects for Martin Johnson's team. So I don't want to do him down now.
But the bottom line is that a professional athlete's idea of drinking should be all about water, energy drinks and rehydration - and not necking so much booze that you get caught short in a taxi on the way home. When Care was arrested for being drunk and disorderly back in December it might have been a single aberration. A drink driving offence on New Year's Day should really have told him he had to change. Three times says there's an underlying problem.
What the Quins star clearly needs is some care with a small 'c', and some education and you hope that behind the public words that is exactly what will happen. One of Lancaster's key moves when he took charge was to tackle the issue that elite sport and excessive alcohol don't mix.
One thing he has got right is warning Care that there are now three scrum-halves in front of him and the only man who can change that pecking order is the one who has let himself fall so far down the rankings.
It will be a vital position to get right in Paris this Sunday. The return of Morgan Parra to his natural role for France means England's number nine will be fully tested. But Lee Dickson was excellent in the early part of the Twickenham clash with Wales, and showed there could be great potential in a budding partnership with Saracens' imaginative fly-half Owen Farrell.
Having backed England for the Twickenham game, I laid them in running - which was a chicken thing to do but ultimately proved a good decision. I bet Lancaster wished he'd been able to press a "cash out now" button half-way through that game!
England are [3.75] to win on Sunday and that has to be value, even if it is only a back to lay bet again. France weren't all that impressive against Ireland, whatever the merits of their second-half comeback. And if Lancaster's new half-back pairing can function as effectively again then there's definitely the potential to unleash the backs. Who knows? They might even open some space for Chris Ashton to rediscover his flair. But as for drinking to celebrate - let's leave that to the fans.
Five things you might not know about Morgan Parra
1. Born November 1988 in Metz, France, his electrician dad Antonio is Portuguese but had moved to France to take a part-time job coaching Lorraine's rugby team. Mother Valerie is a teacher in a home for the mentally handicapped.
2. Morgan was four when he first played rugby at Metz. Spotted for his talent, he was brought into the French academy system and spent two years at their national rugby centre at Marcoussis, as well as winning a French Under21 Championship title with CSBJ.
3. French rules forbid anybody playing senior rugby until the age of 18 - Parra was three days past his birthday when he made his debut for Bourgoin in a Top 14 match against Agen. Bourgoin won 31-18.
4. When he made his senior international debut in February 2008 against Scotland made him the 11th youngest ever to appear for the country.
5. He's training part-time to become an architect when he finishes playing - and has designed his own house which he is currently having built.
The draw between France and Ireland was backed at [42.0] on Betfair but what does the result mean for the rest of the tournament? And can England take advantage of France's patchy defence next weekend? Richard O'Hagan reports....
France and Ireland produce a draw in Paris to hand Wales the Six Nations initiative......
Richard O'Hagan looks back at what happened this weekend and what might happen in the remaining matches of the tournament, which Wales are now the strong favourites to win....
February 11, 2012
La Liga Weekend Matches: Real could be held up briefly by Levante
Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 10 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Cristiano Ronaldo scored a hat-trick against Levante in the cup last season
"Lionel Messi has scored in only 3/15 La Liga away games since March last year"
As next week's Champions League games draw the attention of Real Madrid and Barcelona, Tobias Gourlay looks at whether they will have it all their own way against some tricky opponents
Osasuna v Barcelona
Saturday 19:00
Osasuna [10.0] Barcelona [1.38] draw [5.1]
Coming into the new year, Osasuna were on a seven-month unbeaten streak at home (W8-D3-L0). In 2012, however, they have taken one point from nine at the Reyno de Navarro.
Earlier this season, Jose Luis Mendilibar asked his team to keep a preposterously high defensive line and notched a couple of shocking results away to the Big Two, losing by a combined score of 15-1. Presumably he will be more sensible in Pamplona this weekend.
Leo Messi scored a delightful hat-trick in Malaga three weeks ago, just after this column had gone into detail about his poor strike rate on the road. Since then, Villarreal have kept him - and indeed all of his team-mates - off the scoresheet at El Madrigal, which means the Argentine has now scored in 3/15 La Liga away games since March last year.
Pep Guardiola's tinkering has made Barca a more difficult team to bet on than Real Madrid this season. In his quest for continuous improvement, he has played three at the back just when this column wanted him to keep a clean sheet and dropped Xavi when it wanted his team to score at least four.
This weekend, there is something else to think about - Tuesday's Champions League game in Germany. It's not clear yet whether Pep will risk yet more dropped points away from home in the league to focus on Europe, but the simple facts of Barca's poor away record (W4-D5-L1) and Messi's bad scoring form suggest that the team should be laid to win and the star man not backed to score.
Recommended Bet: Lay Barcelona @ [1.38]
Real Betis v Athletic Bilbao
Saturday 21:00
Betis [2.74] Athletic [2.9] draw [3.4]
A reminder about Fernando Llorente's good form, which we mentioned here last week. Athletic's star striker didn't strike first last week, but he did strike once, so the Lion King has now scored in six of his last seven starts.
There's something else about this game too: Betis have been level at half-time in five of their last seven at the Benito Villamarin, while Athletic have been all-square after 45 minutes of all of their most recent seven away games.
It's a difficult pattern to explain - only three of Athletic's seven half-time draws have been goalless - but the numbers say there's value in the half-time draw at [2.1].
Recommended Bet: Back Fernando Llorente To Score @ [2.5]
Real Madrid v Levante
Sunday 20:30
Real [1.1] Levante [41.0] draw [10.5]
Ignore their defeat to Barcelona in December and Real Madrid are on a winning streak of 16 in the league. At the Bernabeu, Jose Mourinho is W25-D0-L2 against teams that aren't Barca.
In the first half of the current campaign, Levante exceeded the world's pre-season expectations by more than any other team in La Liga. After nine games, they were W7-D2-L0 and second in the table. They made it through the early stages of the cup too, but it seems that playing two games every other week or so has taken a toll on Juan Ignacio Martinez's small squad.
The Frogs are still fourth, but they are ready to croak. Their elevated position reflects the inconsistencies of some bigger clubs, who really ought to be pushing Valencia harder for third. Their record in the most recent 12 rounds of La Liga is W2-D3-L7. Away from home, they've lost five in a row. That run includes heavy defeats to Barcelona (0-5) and Athletic Bilbao (0-3).
Backing Any Unquoted in the Correct Score market has been the right thing to do in 7/9 league games at the Bernabeu involving teams that weren't Barcelona. There's a small concern that Mourinho might want to rest players in the second half - Real must travel to Moscow for a Champions League game on Wednesday - but, as the competition for first-team places hots up, at least Higuain, Benzema and Ozil will be playing as hard as ever.
That Champions League game is a good reason to make sure of the points early, but it's interesting that Real have been level at half-time in five of the nine homes they've gone on to win this season and three of the last four. Draw/Real Madrid is [6.2] in the Half Time/Full Time market and worth a punt.
Recommended Bet: Back Any Unquoted Correct Score @ [2.3]
*Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay
There could be a fresh face in the Champions League next season from Spain, but it is far from clear who that will be at this stage, with so many clubs in contention......
Thiago Silva leads Barcelona's summer wish list, in which Gareth Bale also appears, according to rumours in the build-up to their Copa del Rey clash with Valencia......
With Real Madrid set to win the derby with Getafe and keep Barcelona at bay, the Big Two might like to follow Tobias Gourlay's lead and take a closer look at in-form Fernando Llorente...
June 26, 2011
Tim Vickery: Copa America 2011 could be a classic
Copa America / Tim Vickery / 25 June 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Brazil and Argentina will be key contenders in 2011
"History indicates that the 2011 winner will come from one of the big three - and there are sound reasons to maintain that belief."
The Copa America, which gets underway on July 1, is one of the world's greatest football tournaments and, with more teams than ever capable of winning, Betfair's new columnist Tim Vickery believes this one could be a cracker.
Football's oldest continental tournament, the Copa America has had an uneven history, at times held annually, at others falling into neglect.
One of the major points of interest at this year's tournament is that the Copa has found a perfect slot. Now staged every four years, the competition kicks off a new cycle of competitive action. After a year of friendlies, blooding new coaches and boosting the bank balance, the Copa is swiftly followed by the next set of South America's marathon World Cup qualifiers. This means that the teams will look to emerge from Argentina with a line up ready to battle for a place in Brazil in 2014.
All over the continent, coaches have been stressing that the Copa is primarily a warm up tournament. But, injuries aside, the 10 South American teams are at full strength - unlike the two teams invited from CONCACAF, Mexico and Costa Rica, who are bringing young, experimental squads - and once the action kicks off and the adrenalin kicks in then thoughts of using the Copa for mere preparation purposes will be put aside. More sides than ever before will be dreaming of lifting the trophy aloft on July 24.
This is the other aspect that makes the 2011 Copa so fascinating - the current strength in depth of South American international football. History shows that we can certainly think of a traditional big three in the Copa - between them Argentina [2.02], Brazil [3.35] and Uruguay [12.5] have won 36 of the 42 versions of the tournament - and it is worth noting that as far as the Copa is concerned, Uruguay have never been anything but a giant. Winners in 1995, finalists in 1999, the sky blues have reached the semis in each of the last three tournaments. Given their current strength, one conclusion here is that Uruguay [13.0] are worth backing.
Outside the big three, Peru [260.00], Paraguay [38.0], Bolivia [390.00] and Colombia [32.0] share the other six titles - either on home ground or in the period when the Copa had no fixed host (the sole exception is Paraguay's 1953 win in Peru, but officially it was the Paraguayan FA who organised the competition).
A look at the past, then, would seem to indicate that the 2011 winner will come from one of the big three - and there are sound reasons to maintain that belief. All look strong; hosts Argentina are under pressure to end a run of 18 years without a senior title. Brazil want to take advantage of their most serious competitive test before staging the next World Cup. Uruguay were semi-finalists in South Africa last year and have a settled side spearheaded by a phalanx of dangerous strikers.
But it would be unwise to overlook the lessons of the World Cup. Uruguay, for example, only qualified through the play-offs after finishing fifth in qualification. The evidence would seem clear; the introduction in 1996 of the marathon format of World Cup qualifiers has led to a dramatic improvement in the level of the less traditional teams. For the first time they have enjoyed the type of calendar that European teams take for granted - regular competitive games with guaranteed income, allowing them to hire top quality coaches and build a side.
The most dramatic example of this progress is Ecuador, three decades ago a South American version of Luxembourg, but part of the best 16 in the world in 2006. Venezuela's rise is no less spectacular - in the last round of the 2010 qualifiers they even managed a draw away to Brazil - who they beat comfortably in a 2008 friendly.
Chile thrilled the neutrals in the World Cup, and have a group of players who are both battle hardened and still with their best years ahead of them. The ever resilient Paraguay gave world champions Spain their toughest test in South Africa.
And countries who sat out South Africa are anxious to get back on track. Colombian football has such potential, which will come closer to being fulfilled if they can get the best out of a promising group of strikers. Peru have been in the doldrums for a while, but the signs are that in Sergio Markarian they have a top class coach capable of making them much more competitive.
So there could be some surprises along the way. Over the next few weeks the limbs will freeze through the fierce Argentine Winter. But with the strength in depth on display in the Copa, the blood will be aflame.
Despite winning four of the last five Copa America tournaments, Brazil are second favourites to be victorious in Argentina, primarily due to doubts over coach Mano Menezes....
It has been decades since Paraguay last seriously threatened in the Copa America, however last year's World Cup quarter-finals run offers hope of a sustained challenge....
1997 finalists Bolivia have achieved almost nothing in the Copa America since, but the appointment of promising coach Gustavo Quinteros gives them hope of a win at least....
April 22, 2011
Bundesliga Betting: Dortmund's title march could stutter
German Football / Kevin Hatchard / 22 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Is Robert Lewandowski and his Dortmund team-mates set for a slip-up?
"Dortmund are misfiring on the road, and the pressure of reaching the finish line in the title race could take its toll."
Kevin Hatchard looks at the comings and goings in the Bundesliga this week and, of course, the best bets from this weekend's matches
As has become the norm of late, this week's column begins with the Bundesliga's latest to-ing and fro-ing on the coaching front. As expected, St Pauli coach Holger Stanislawski has agreed to join Hoffenheim in the summer. Hoffe will be working with a lower budget than in recent seasons as owner Dietmar Hopp looks to cut costs, which sounds like a challenge that's right up Stanislawski's strasse.
Hamburg have given caretaker boss Michael Oenning a contract until the end of next season, which I find as mystifying as the appeal of The Only Way Is Essex.
HSV have won just one of their four games since Armin Veh was sacked, but Oenning's already talking about pushing for the title next season. Equally surprising was Frank Schafer's decision to reject Cologne's offer of a two-year deal. He'll return to coaching the reserves next term, despite lifting the club six points above the dropzone.
Borussia Monchengladbach [5.6] vs Borussia Dortmund [1.67], the draw [4.1]
Last weekend's action took leaders Dortmund to the brink of securing their first Bundesliga title since 2002. Closest challengers Bayer Leverkusen were taken apart 4-1 at Bayern Munich, and BVB went eight points clear by sweeping aside Freiburg 3-0. If Jurgen Klopp's effervescent Dortmund win Saturday's game at rock-bottom Monchengladbach, they'll be crowned champions should Bayer fail to beat Hoffenheim.
Dortmund have the best away record in the league, but lately they have struggled on their travels. A 3-1 win at Bayern Munich has been their only win in four road trips, a period in which they lost at Hoffenheim and needed a stoppage-time equaliser to snatch a draw at Hamburg.
There's no doubt that Monchengladbach look a better team under the stewardship of coach Lucien Favre, but the Foals are still seven points adrift of safety.
Their best chance of survival is attempting to finish third from bottom, and then trying to win the relegation playoff.
Since Favre took over from Michael Frontzeck, Monchengladbach have transformed their home form. They've won three of their last four home games, having not won in front of their own fans before Favre arrived.
Defensively Monchengladbach have tightened up. Under Frontzeck they shipped an eye-watering 56 goals in 22 games, but under Favre they've let in just eight goals in eight games.
Recommended Bets: Dortmund are misfiring on the road, and the pressure of reaching the finish line in the title race could take its toll. Monchengladbach are desperate for points and are much more resilient these days, so lay Dortmund at [1.67] and back under 2.5 goals at [2.5]
St Pauli [3.5] vs Werder Bremen [2.22], the draw [3.65]
Before Holger Stanislawski leaves for Hoffenheim, he must somehow pull his beloved St Pauli out of a tailspin which threatens to return them to Bundesliga Zwei after just one season. The Pirates have lost seven of their last eight matches, although last week they were desperately close to picking up what would have been a vital win at Wolfsburg. St Pauli were 2-1 up in the 89th minute, but they failed to pick up Jan Polak at a corner, and he headed in an equaliser.
The spectre of relegation has hung over Werder for much of what's been a troubling season, but a seven-match unbeaten run has taken them six points clear of the dropzone. Werder haven't kept a clean sheet since December 4, but they've shipped just eight goals in seven games.
Recommended Bets: Werder have drawn five of their last seven, including the last three. St Pauli are playing better than their recent run suggests, so back the draw at [3.65] and under 2.5 goals at [2.4]
Nurnberg [2.22] vs Mainz [3.55], the draw [3.55]
Sixth-placed Nurnberg are two points behind fifth-placed Mainz in the race for a Europa League spot, so this game is crucial. Both teams have been in patchy form - Nurnberg have won just one of their last four games, while Mainz have won just one in five.
Recommended Bet: At home Nurnberg have won nine, drawn one and lost five, an exact match with Mainz's record on the road making an away win attractively overpriced. Back Mainz to win at [3.55]
With Bayern in disarray following the departure of Louis van Gaal, can Bayer Leverkusen take advantage? Kevin Hatchard selects the weekend's best German top flight bets....
Felix Magath left the building a couple of weeks ago and Ralf Rangnick is back in the hot-seat. The team looks different and the players look happier. Schalke can get back to where they were, says Ben Lyttleton....
Schalke will still be buzzing after their Champions League heroics but their former boss will be determined to bring them back down to earth when Wolfsburg travel to the Veltins Arena. Meanwhile, can Bayern pick up a rare away win?...
April 12, 2011
Could Doyle Brunson Be About To Quit Poker?
Poker News / Matthew Pitt / 12 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
/ Matthew Pitt / 12 April 2011 / Leave a Comment Legend
Winning bracelets and poker tournaments aren't as important to me as they were a few weeks ago
Doyle Brunson is a living legend. The 77-year old Texan is synonymous with the game of no limit Hold'em and has played at the very highest level for more than 50 years, but could he be ready to make a fold for the last time. A recent conversation with Daniel Negreanu seems to suggest that he is going to, at the very least, quit playing tournament poker.
It has been quite a few months for Bruson, the winner of 10 World Series of Poker bracelets, as he has suffered from numerous personal health problems and deaths within his family and circle of friends leading to some to question Brunson's ability to keep playing with the best in the business as he approaches eight decades of life. The biggest problem Brunson has faced recently was his cancer scare at the end of February where his dermatologist found a tumour in his left arm which resulted in surgery to remove it. Thankfully for Brunson the tumour was not malignant and required no further treatment, though he did develop another lump in the same arm but another incision leading Brunson to write on his popular Twitter account, "I've been carved on more than a Thanksgiving turkey in my life. Ouch."
Indeed it was on Twitter where Brunson hinted at his poker retirement after exchanging a number of Tweets with Canadian pro Daniel Negreanu, after he had told his 90,000 fans that he had "Busted #napt AQ vs 10-10. I rarely bust day 1. If you regularly bust day 1 of these events you need to quit poker asap. Had no shot today" Brunson replied by telling Negreanu to "Go back and play the way you used to. I know you don't think so, but you were much better...IMO"
Negreanu disagreed and also went all defensive when Brunson said he could not believe how many tournaments he has played this year, even prompting a bet from Negreanu that both Erik Seidel and Barry Greenstein would have played more than him in 2011 so far. He also put a thinly-veiled brag Tweet up saying he has had 11 consecutive winning years on the tournament front before telling Brunson, "you must be really bored btw, needling a guy right after he busts from a tourney! I'll remember to get you next time you bust :-)" Brunson responded by saying to Negreanu, "In your wildest imagination you can't believe how bored and useless I feel. I may never go bust in another tourny, guess why?" but when the Canadian pressed Brunson for the reasoning behind his last Tweet he swerved the question and started talking about golf and Jennifer Harman instead.
Brunson pulled out of the 2010 World Series of Poker Europe citing the fact the travelling was taking its toll on him, along with the long days of having to sit playing poker. Whilst recovering from his recent surgery he withdrew from the NBC Heads Up Poker Championship and the PokerStars BigGame and he even wrote in his blog, "Winning bracelets and poker tournaments aren't as important to me as they were a few weeks ago." Could it be that Doyle Brunson is going to step aside and hang up his trademark Stetson once and for all? Only time will tell.
Join Betfair Poker Now and you could benefit from a sign-up bonus of between $50 and $2,500, more than enough to start you on your way to becoming a legend in your own right!
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March 1, 2011
Cheltenham Festival Specials: Even the Odd bets could tempt you this year
The Cheltenham Festival / Adam Brookes / 01 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Top jockey contender Robert Thornton looks to have his best chance with Medermit
"If you find Cheltenham Fever has really got to your head, then you might find yourself delving into some of the more obscure markets, possibly looking for a bet that’s at least going to get you past the opening day."
Whilst you may not be able to see past Binocular winning his second Champion Hurdle, or superstar stayer Big Buck's dominating once again in the World Hurdle, you may have also decided that the current odds on offer are too skinny for you to get involved. Well, help is on hand in the shape of the Betfair Cheltenham Specials markets.
If the betting for top jockey at the Festival has it right, then it seems Irish eyes will be smiling as Walsh [2.56], Geraghty [3.7] and McCoy [9.2] comfortably head the market, but with Medermit, Bensalem and Mille Chief all holding solid chances in their respective races, the [15.0] about Robert Thornton may tempt your clicking finger. Richard Johnson [13.0] also has some very nice rides to look forward to and he too seems a big price.
If you do fancy 'Choc' to be top jock in two week's time, it would probably make sense to also back his boss Alan King [12.0] to be top trainer , as it looks as though that is where the ammunition is primarily going to come from. Of the home defence, it's the usual suspects in Nicholls [2.4] and Henderson [2.26] who show the way, with leader of the invasion Willie Mullins [6.0] most likely to upset the front two according to the market.
With Hurricane Fly, Big Zeb, Golden Silver, Unaccompanied and a host of other Irish invaders holding strong chances at the Festival, you may well be tempted by the '6-7 winners' bet on the market open for predicting the number of Irish-trained winners. On the other hand, the number of British-based fancies might sway you in favour of the odds on offer about 'less than 4 winners' being trained in the Emerald Isle.
If Cheltenham Fever has really got to your head, then you might find yourself delving into some of the more obscure markets, possibly looking for a bet that's at least going to get you past the opening day. If this is you, then the one you may find to your liking is the 'Longest SP winner' bet where '33/1-50/1 inclusive' [1.61] appears all the rage. However, if you don't envisage any major shocks in store, the [6.4] for 'Shorter than 33/1' might be more up your street.
If the pre-Festival jolly-up has well and truly loosened your punting defences, you may also find the 'Odd vs. Even' bet extremely appealing, as you must decide, according to racecard number, whether you think odd or even numbers will provide the most Cheltenham winners. Should indecision grab you, however, you can play it down the middle with a tie.
Finally, and returning to the opening paragraph, there is also a market on 'Championship Accumulators' for those of you who did indeed fancy Binocular to win the Champion Hurdle and Big Bucks's to win the World Hurdle, and the like. That particular bet is currently available at [7.6] but I'm sure there are many other permutations that may take your eye in the wonderful, and sometimes weird, world of Special Bets.
With only two weeks to the day before the cream of the hurdling crop navigate their way around Prestbury Park, before rising to the top of that famous hill, the shape of the race is now clearly defined, and it's multidimensional according to Timeform's Adam Brookes....
Timeform's Martin Dixon previews what might be in store for AP McCoy at Cheltenham 2011......
Whilst you may not be able to see past Binocular winning his second Champion Hurdle, or superstar stayer Big Buck's dominating once again in the World Hurdle, you may have also decided that the current odds on offer are too skinny for you to get involved. Well, help is on hand in the shape of the Betfair Cheltenham Specials markets....
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