"In eight completed first-innings, the average score has been 231"
Lay the side batting first for 250 or more at around 2.809/5
Ed Hawkins, the SJA Betting Writer of the Year, previews the first match between England and South Africa at Cardiff on Friday
England
The home side are without Stuart Broad after taking the decision to rest the Twenty20 captain ahead of next month's World Cup. It is a slightly odd decision as there is plenty of time before the Sri Lanka stint and it deprives them of a fine bowler.
Instead Chris Woakes could be given a run. He has caught the eye for Warwickshire this season and is deserving of an opportunity to prove himself.
Ravi Bopara, returned to the fold after a hiatus for personal reasons, is in no form whatsoever and failed in a guest appearance for Gloucestershire against the South Africans on Wednesday. It would be a surprise if he played.
South Africa
South Africa have long been the masters of the bits and pieces one-day player. And there are plenty in this squad which form a formidable-looking jigsaw. Albie Morkel, who could biff one over the border, is a tantalising, yet often disappointing, all-rounder, while Robin Peterson, Ryan McLaren and Wayne Parnell are all fine operators in this format.
Venue and conditions
Sophia Gardens in Cardiff is something of a friend of gamblers. It is so darn reliable. Usually we can expect some wet weather and a difficult batting pitch. Throw in a toss bias and we're like pigs in mud.
If you subscribe to the view that gamblers should stick to what they know, then turn off the brain. Sophia Gardens is tricky for batsmen and we are looking to play the innings runs market. In eight completed first-innings, the average score has been 231. The highest total was by India against England last year but previous to that only Pakistan (in 2001) have managed 250 or more.
Runs have been short supply in the three CB40 matches there, too - 173, 151 and 227 have been the first-dig totals.
Better still, with rain forecast either a reduced-overs affair or a stop-start mind muddle for batsmen points to a low-scoring contest. Lay the side batting first for 250 or more at around the 2.809/5 mark.
Match odds
Hell, we could be here all day debating the respective merits of these two sides - England bat deeper, South Africa have the smarter crew - but it pales into insignificance when you consider the toss bias. Yup, it's a cracker, too.
In the seven matches which have produced results each have been won by the side chasing. Bonkers I know but it is impossible, not to mention pure folly, to ignore.
England are 2.1211/10 and South Africa are 1.8910/11. The toss is a fifty-fifty call. Or a 2.001/1 shot. So who is the value? Corrrect. It's England. Easy this betting lark really.
Top England runscorer
In batting conditions which are testing, it is not surprising that one would eschew the flashy strokemakers. So sorry, Bell, Bairstow, Bopara and Kieswetter, stodge is what we want. Alastair Cook and Jonathan Trott both dropped anchor for half-tons last time out at this venue against India and you can't go far wrong by favouring them again.
Top South Africa runscorer
We should apply the same rule from the England market. Hashim Amla and Graeme Smith are expected to open the batting and both have techniques tight enough to warrant support. Dean Elgar showed form against Gloucestershire but wasn't quite in tune so will probably miss out. Shame Jacques Kallis is not playing, though, as he would have been well-supported.
Recommended bet
Lay the side batting first for 250 or more at around 2.809/5
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