Will Greenwood: Back England to secure historic Grand Slam in Cardiff

"For the first time in a while I am struggling to stop myself chucking my boots in the car, driving to Cardiff and trying to persuade Stuart Lancaster to give me a game."

Back England to win by under 12.5 points at 2.35/4

Betfair Ambassador Will Greenwood is excited for the last weekend of the Six Nations and he fancies England to squeak past a difficult encounter at the Millendium Stadium...

We had a nice 2.47/5 winner last week when Toby Flood stroked a penalty over the posts to open the scoring against Italy at Twickenham. Admittedly, England didn't produce the steamrolling, barnstorming display we predicted as Italy's defence held up quite well, and the entire team appeared buoyed by the return of the great Sergio Parisse.

It seemed to me like some of the England lads had one eye on a trip to Cardiff and their play against Italy was a bit lateral; it lacked the ingenuity and intensity going forward and, while Italy were defensively very solid, it was easier for them than it should have been. I remember playing against Italy in the McAlpine Stadium back in 1998 ahead of a more important game and we ended up scraping the win by just eight points. These things can happen from time to time; if you know you're likely to playing the biggest game of your career in a fortnight's time, it's very tough not to think about it.

All of which brings me on to this Saturday's crunch game. A final match in Cardiff for England to win their first Grand Slam in ten years ahead of a Lions tour? It does not get bigger than this.

It's tempting for everyone to think that all the pressure ahead of this tie is on England, but that's not strictly true. Wales know that if they win by at least seven points they can secure a defence of their Six Nations crown, and what's more, Welsh rugby fans most certainly do not like to see their boys lose to England at any time, let alone at Cardiff in a crunch game. They'll be feeling it just as much as England, mark my words.

Ahead of Lions selection, it's important that the players involved play the game and not the occasion. A lot of the England team won't have played in Cardiff before, but I don't think that'll be as much of a factor as has been reported for two reasons. Firstly, this team has shown it can handle different types of pressure; both the expectation of a routine win (the game against Scotland at Twickenham, for example) and the in-your-face pressure of a physical, unattractive tie in Ireland. Secondly, England's coaching setup has been everywhere and experienced just about everything. They'll be adept at passing on their experience to the players and should be able to keep them focused.

I will be especially interested in how the battle of the centres plays out. Much has been made of the Tuilagi-Barritt/Twelvetrees v Roberts/Davies battle in there but England will do well to remember that a lot of the threat will come from behind, with North and Cuthbert lending support and giving them plenty more to think about. It's vital England stay robust defensively in the face of that hard running and pressure.

This will be the last game a lot of these Welsh players play before Lions selection, so they'll be desperate to make it count. This will be a tight game, a barn-burner of a match. For the first time in a while I am struggling to stop myself chucking my boots in the car, driving to Cardiff and trying to persuade Stuart Lancaster to give me a game. As a pro, these are the games you live for. Everything's at stake, and it's the finest of margins that will settle it: one missed tackle, one scrappy line-out or one line break could decide where that trophy ends up. Do not miss it.

Recommended Bet

Earlier in the week, I tipped England to nick this game by a small margin, so I think I'll have to stick with that. 2.35/4 is currently the price for England to win by under 12.5 points and, in my view, they can weather the Welsh storm and secure an unforgettable Grand Slam. Hold on to your hats though, because this is going to go to the wire.

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Championship: Watford prospering from Cardiff jitters

"Cardiff's previously iron grip on the title is wavering and by the time they take to the field again on Tuesday, Watford could have turned up the heat yet further by bridging the gap to just two points with victory over Blackpool."

Surely Cardiff can't throw it away this time, can they? After another full Tuesday night programme in the Championship, Christian Crowther reacts...

Their outgoing chairman Dato Chan Tien Ghee may have succeeded in changing the club's colours last year but if Cardiff fail to sustain their title tilt and miss out on promotion again, the only colour everyone associated with the club will be turning is green.

With Watford recording their fourth win in five league games against Sheffield Wednesday and Cardiff drawing at home to Derby, the Hornets closed the gap at the top of the table to just five points.

Suddenly, Malky Mackay's men have to look over their shoulder with the gap to Hull in third only six points, though Cardiff do have a game in hand. They are a 1.211/5 lay for promotion.

Now all the lingering doubts of the past three seasons - in which the league leaders have missed out on promotion via the play-offs - plus the campaign prior to that in which they were pushed out to seventh on the final day will begin to enter Bluebird minds.

Cardiff's previously iron grip on the title is wavering and, by the time they take to the field again on Tuesday, Gianfranco Zola's Watford side could have turned up the heat yet further by bridging the gap to just two points with victory over Blackpool.

It's now just two wins in six games for Mackay's men, who are choosing exactly the wrong time to come down with a case of the jitters. 

Next Tuesday's game against fellow promotion hopefuls Leicester now takes on huge significance with the Foxes themselves in real danger of slipping out of contention after recording just one win in their last six Championship games, one of which was last night's 1-1 draw with Leeds.

Leicester's own hopes of promotion - now rated at 3.3512/5 - are laced with increasing fragility as the season enters the final stretch.

In contrast, Watford's relentless ascent, which has taken in eight wins and just one loss from their last 11 Championship fixtures, now sees the Hornets rated 7.413/2 second favourites to clinch the title.

Crystal Palace were the other big winners in the hunt for those hallowed automatic promotion spots as they overcame Hull, who were second, 4-2 at Selhurst Park courtesy of a Kevin Phillips hat-trick.

That win for Ian Holloway's side, the Eagles' fourth in five league outings, kept them within two points of second-placed Watford.

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1st ODI Betting: Batsmen could suffer Cardiff blues

"In eight completed first-innings, the average score has been 231"

Lay the side batting first for 250 or more at around 2.809/5

Ed Hawkins, the SJA Betting Writer of the Year, previews the first match between England and South Africa at Cardiff on Friday

England
The home side are without Stuart Broad after taking the decision to rest the Twenty20 captain ahead of next month's World Cup. It is a slightly odd decision as there is plenty of time before the Sri Lanka stint and it deprives them of a fine bowler.

Instead Chris Woakes could be given a run. He has caught the eye for Warwickshire this season and is deserving of an opportunity to prove himself.

Ravi Bopara, returned to the fold after a hiatus for personal reasons, is in no form whatsoever and failed in a guest appearance for Gloucestershire against the South Africans on Wednesday. It would be a surprise if he played.

South Africa
South Africa have long been the masters of the bits and pieces one-day player. And there are plenty in this squad which form a formidable-looking jigsaw. Albie Morkel, who could biff one over the border, is a tantalising, yet often disappointing, all-rounder, while Robin Peterson, Ryan McLaren and Wayne Parnell are all fine operators in this format.

Venue and conditions
Sophia Gardens in Cardiff is something of a friend of gamblers. It is so darn reliable. Usually we can expect some wet weather and a difficult batting pitch. Throw in a toss bias and we're like pigs in mud.

If you subscribe to the view that gamblers should stick to what they know, then turn off the brain. Sophia Gardens is tricky for batsmen and we are looking to play the innings runs market. In eight completed first-innings, the average score has been 231. The highest total was by India against England last year but previous to that only Pakistan (in 2001) have managed 250 or more.

Runs have been short supply in the three CB40 matches there, too - 173, 151 and 227 have been the first-dig totals.

Better still, with rain forecast either a reduced-overs affair or a stop-start mind muddle for batsmen points to a low-scoring contest. Lay the side batting first for 250 or more at around the 2.809/5 mark.

Match odds
Hell, we could be here all day debating the respective merits of these two sides - England bat deeper, South Africa have the smarter crew - but it pales into insignificance when you consider the toss bias. Yup, it's a cracker, too.

In the seven matches which have produced results each have been won by the side chasing. Bonkers I know but it is impossible, not to mention pure folly, to ignore.

England are 2.1211/10 and South Africa are 1.8910/11. The toss is a fifty-fifty call. Or a 2.001/1 shot. So who is the value? Corrrect. It's England. Easy this betting lark really.

Top England runscorer
In batting conditions which are testing, it is not surprising that one would eschew the flashy strokemakers. So sorry, Bell, Bairstow, Bopara and Kieswetter, stodge is what we want. Alastair Cook and Jonathan Trott both dropped anchor for half-tons last time out at this venue against India and you can't go far wrong by favouring them again.

Top South Africa runscorer
We should apply the same rule from the England market. Hashim Amla and Graeme Smith are expected to open the batting and both have techniques tight enough to warrant support. Dean Elgar showed form against Gloucestershire but wasn't quite in tune so will probably miss out. Shame Jacques Kallis is not playing, though, as he would have been well-supported.

Recommended bet
Lay the side batting first for 250 or more at around 2.809/5

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Carling Cup Final Opta Stats: Cardiff v Liverpool

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 23 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Luis Suarez played a significent part in Liverpool's run to the final

Opta offer practically every insight you could possibly require about Sunday's Carling Cup Final between Cardiff and Liverpool...

The last meeting between these sides was in the Carling Cup fourth round in October 2007, when the Reds won 2-1 at Anfield.

Prior to this, Cardiff had won their last five meetings with Liverpool, scoring 18 goals in total in these games.

The Bluebirds have won nine of their last 12 meetings with Liverpool in all competitions, though 11 of these came before 1960.

Cardiff are the only side who can say that they have won their last five league meetings with Liverpool (no other side has won even their last three).

Liverpool are only the second side to reach the final of the League Cup despite playing just one game at home, after Arsenal in 2006-07.

Liverpool are one of only two sides to have won a League Cup Final on a penalty shootout, beating second-tier Birmingham 5-4 on spot-kicks in 2001.

Kenny Dalglish's side have won the League Cup more times than any other side (seven, Aston Villa five).

A win in this match would see Liverpool equal Manchester United's record for most English domestic cup wins (15: seven League Cup, seven FA Cup so far).

This is the fourth time Liverpool have faced a lower-tier opponent in the League Cup Final: they won one 2-1 (Bolton 1995), one on penalties (Birmingham 2001), and one 2-1 in a replay after the first game was drawn 1-1 (West Ham 1981).

Just one of the last seven sides from outside the top tier to reach the League Cup Final has won (Sheffield Wednesday in 1991).

All three of Cardiff's previous cup final appearances have finished 1-0 (one win, two defeats, all FA Cup).

There have been five previous winners of the League Cup from outside the top tier, out of 15 who have reached the final.

Their 2-0 win over Blackburn in the quarter-finals this season was Cardiff's first win in 11 League Cup meetings with top-flight sides.

Cardiff have lost three of their last four matches in all competitions.

Luis Suárez has bagged three goals in three Carling Cup appearances this season.

José Reina is the only player to have played in all of Liverpool's Carling Cup games this season (6).

Andrew Taylor is the only Cardiff player to have featured in every Carling Cup game this season (7).

Swansea will be hoping to take advantage of a Stoke side whose recent cup exploits have had a negative impact on their Premier League form......

Norwich's recent home form ensures that this should prove a difficult test for Premier League title hopefuls Manchester United......

Tottenham's north London derby record has improved massively of late, and with Arsenal struggling in big games this season, that trend could continue......

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Cardiff v Crystal Palace: Hosts to fire their way to the final

Carling Cup / Michael Lintorn / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Kenny Miller has struck ten times since his summer move to Cardiff

"Saturday’s 3-2 defeat of Portsmouth, as well as avenging another memorable cup reverse, sees Cardiff enter this must-win game on a run of eight home victories in nine."

A 1-0 defeat at Selhurst Park leaves Cardiff with it all to do in the second leg of their Carling Cup semi-final, but Michael Lintorn thinks they will deliver...

Cardiff v Crystal Palace, Tuesday 19:45 BST, BBC2, Match odds: Cardiff [1.77], Crystal Palace [5.5], The Draw [3.8]

There aren't many instances in which fickleness can be viewed as an asset but the ability to switch loyalties as frequently, decisively and effectively as Craig Bellamy moves teams is a positive when it comes to betting on Carling Cup semi-finals.

That's why, a mere fortnight after successfully backing Crystal Palace to triumph 1-0 in the first leg of their jostle with Cardiff for a Wembley place, this writer is changing sides and planning a celebratory Ayatollah in expectation of them overhauling the deficit.

One of the reasons for favouring Palace in the initial tie was the frequency of home victories in Carling Cup semi-finals, and they are even more common in second legs. The last six have all been won by the hosts, with five of those - including each of the last four - progressing to the final.

Further cause for backing the Bluebirds both to win at [1.79] and qualify at [2.1] is provided by the way that both have performed since the clash at Selhurst Park, with Cardiff taking four points from two Championship fixtures while Palace gained only one.

It is arguable no doubt that the difference owes much to the Londoners' position in the middle of the table enabling them to focus on the cup, going through the motions in the meantime, whereas their Welsh opponents are battling to sustain a promotion challenge.

However, those results have helped Malky Mackay's men rebuild the momentum that was dwindling slightly ahead of their first-leg loss. Saturday's 3-2 defeat of Portsmouth, as well as avenging another memorable cup reverse, sees them enter this must-win game on a run of eight home victories in nine.

Over/under 2.5 goals

It isn't just the home win rate that is high in Carling Cup semi-final second legs, as each of the last six have produced three goals or more [[2.26]], with half of those producing over 3.5 goals too, a massive [4.5] prospect on this occasion.

Cardiff have scored eight in their last three outings at their Cardiff City Stadium, conceding six in the process. With Dougie Freedman's visitors sure to fancy their chances of an away goal having fired in five of their last seven on the road, both teams to score shouldn't be discounted either at [2.12].

The Bluebirds' last two matches in front of their fans saw them net three times to prevail despite leaking at the other end and it is [17.0] for that trend to be maintained by virtue of a 3-1 success.

Best Bet: Cardiff to qualify @ [2.1]
Other Recommended Bet: Cardiff to win 3-1 @ [17.0]

Cardiff knocked out Crystal Palace on penalties but are far from being favourites on Betfair's Carling Cup winner market, despite being the only team guaranteed a place in the final....

Michael Lintorn expects Manchester City to exit their third competition in 50 days when fighting to overturn a 0-1 Carling Cup semi-final deficit at Anfield......

There are rumours that Liverpool are about to purchase one of the most hyped stars in the Football League, in the process weakening a side who they might face at Wembley......

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Carling Cup Results: Cardiff through on penalties

Carling Cup / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Peter Whittingham watches closely as Anthony Gardner heads the ball into his own net

"Had the Palace players known in advance how poorly they were at taking spot-kicks they may not have bothered hanging on for dear life as exhaustion kicked in during extra-time."

Cardiff knocked out Crystal Palace on penalties but are far from being favourites on Betfair's Carling Cup winner market, despite being the only team guaranteed a place in the final.

Cardiff City are through to the Carling Cup final after doing things the hard way at home to Crystal Palace. The Eagles had a one goal lead going into the second leg courtesy of centre-back Anthony Gardner and the same player was in the limelight again when he headed into his own net after good work on the wing and a fine cross by Craig Conway. Things got worse for the visitors when Palace captain Paddy McCarthy got sent off for a second booking for a foul on Kenny Miller with 13 minutes left on the clock but there were no more goals after 90 minutes. Cardiff were matched at [1.88] to win the game and [2.9] to win without conceding.

Extra-time saw plenty of tired legs trying to shut up shop for Palace and play for penalties and despite having a few decent chances, Cardiff couldn't get the break-through. Had the Palace players known in advance how poorly they were at taking spot-kicks they may not have bothered hanging on for dear life as exhaustion kicked in during extra-time. Jermaine Easter, Sean Scannell and Jonathan Parr all missed for Palace after Kenny Miller had failed himself with Cardiff's first spot-kick and having scored three of their four, Cardiff were through after being backed at [3.6] on the to qualify market. A win on penalties was matched at [28.0] in the "method of victory" market.

Cardiff are [6.4] to lift the Carling Cup behind favourites Liverpool (1.76), who take a 1-0 lead into the second leg of their tie against Manchester City (3.5). Read a preview of Wednesday night's match here.

Michael Lintorn expects Manchester City to exit their third competition in 50 days when fighting to overturn a 0-1 Carling Cup semi-final deficit at Anfield......

A 1-0 defeat at Selhurst Park leaves Cardiff with it all to do in the second leg of their Carling Cup semi-final, but Michael Lintorn thinks they will deliver......

There are rumours that Liverpool are about to purchase one of the most hyped stars in the Football League, in the process weakening a side who they might face at Wembley......

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England v Sri Lanka Live Blog: Day five in Cardiff

Live Test Match Blogging / Andrew Hughes / 30 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

It's raining in Wales. There's a surprise...

Rain has stopped play getting under way on the final day of the first Test but Andrew Hughes is on hand with the updates should we see some action

WICKET Perera c Bell b Broad 20
Feisty innings from Perera ended by a brilliant catch at short leg from Bell. England are on the brink of something extraordinary.

17:22 Sri Lanka 72-8
Slapstick from the England fielders, Bell and the substitute Walters both going for a catch and colliding with each other. Both are okay, Perera survives with a rather fortunate single to his name. Mendis digging in as best he can.

17:15 Sri Lanka 64-8
Perera is fighting back, three stinging boundaries, although the last was ushered over the ropes by the England substitue fielder, to keep Mendis on strike. 36 runs required to make England bat again.

WICKET Herath lbw b Swann 3
Horrible horrible shot. Swann has another wicket without even trying. Looks like Sri Lanka have somewhere to be this evening.

WICKET H Jayawardene c Prior b Tremlett 3
Wild shot, a hook and the faintest deflection off the glove. England go for the review and get the wicket. 32 overs to go and it could be all over. Sri Lanka are playing like it's a Twenty20 game.

WICKET Maharoof c Prior b Swann 0
Unbelievable! Maharoof plays a nothing shot and gets caught behind. Sri Lanka are throwing it away. The England win is now shorter than the draw at [1.74]

WICKET K Sangakkara c Strauss b Swann
Beautiful delivery from Swann, but not a great shot from Sangakkara, tentative and gets the edge. Sri Lanka are folding under pressure.

16:50 Sri Lanka 37-4
Big shout for a catch, but ball missed bat. Tremlett causing all sorts of problems here. [4.8] about an England win and the draw is creeping up to [1.26]

WICKET T Samaraweera b Swann 0
Another one! Samaraweera has been far too aggressive in his approach and then plays a shocker, slashing off the back foot to a fullish ball. Crisis time for Sri Lanka.

16:37 Sri Lanka 33-3
Sri Lanka are really struggling now and it should be remembered that they have a longish tail. Plenty of overs left, although they are only 62 runs behind. Having started the day at [180.0] an England win is down to [11.5]

WICKET M Jayawardene c Strauss b Tremlett 15
Great delivery from Tremlett, Jayawardene gets the edge and the game is really on. Samaraweera comes out to bat and he's carrying an injury

TEA Sri Lanka 33-2
The two old hands have survived until tea, but their work is not yet done. Another 39 overs in the day, potentially and the game has become interesting. I'm off for a cup of tea and a slice of Battenburg. Back in 20.

15:54 Sri Lanka 21-2
Tense cricket, not before time. Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene are battling hard to survive to tea. Possibly 44 overs left in the day for England to take another 8 wickets. But they need to separate this partnership.

WICKET Dilshan c and b Tremlett 10
Unlucky from Dilshan, the ball balloons off glove, thigh pad and loops back towards the bowler who scoops it up gratefully. Now it's really getting interesting. England win plummets to [16.0]

WICKET Paranavitana c Strauss b Tremlett 0
Now then. Good delivery from Tremlett, pushed at by Paranavitana. England win price collapses to [36.0]

15:20 Sri Lanka 0-0
Right, here we go. Sri Lankan batsmen coming out. 50 minutes to go till tea. If the miracle is going to happen, England need 3-4 wickets before then. Broad will have the new ball. We've waited a long time for some interesting cricket.

15:07 England 492-5
Bell gets his hundred, they all run off and England have declared. Slightly odd. Why not lash a quick 30-40? 96 runs the lead. If you're interested, an England win can be backed at [100.0]

15:00 England 491-5
Cricket at last! First item on the agenda: Bell's century. He needs three.

14:50 England 491-5
Groundstaff are out on the pitch and we could be 10 minutes away from the start of play. If it doesn't rain again, the two teams can't agree a draw before 6 pm. We could be in for some (more) turgid cricket. Let's home England are in a mood to put on a show.

14:30 England 491-5
Few spots of rain around but nothing serious and that 15:00 start is looking good. On the subject of county cricket, there was a revealing comment by former Glamorgan player and now journalist Steve James at the weekend, defending Cardiff's Test match status on the grounds that it is vital to Glamorgan's survival. Clearly county cricket depends on the national team and not the other way round.

14:00 England 491-5
Ah, apparently we might start at 15:00. Optimistic, but still, you never know. Elsewhere, Sussex are piling up the runs against Yorkshire, currently on 430-3. The south coast county are currently going well in the four day game and available at [9.8] for the Championship.

13:55 England 491-5
Technically it isn't raining at the moment. Water is everywhere though, some of the groundstaff mopping up, but the ground is deserted spectator-wise. Still no news on any inspection. We must be getting close to play being called off for the day.

13:30 England 491-5
Still raining a little and no news on when play might start. Tomorrow's forecast is for a clear day with no precipitation.The weather gods clearly have a sense of humour. Perhaps the next Cardiff Test should be played at the Millenium Stadium with its handy roof.

13:05 England 491-5
Much talk about KP in the papers this morning. Apparently he works hard at his game, spends a lot of time in the nets, and yet has not ironed out his weakness against left-armers. I can remember him being dismissed by Shakib Al Hasan last summer, playing all round a straight one. A year on and he still hasn't sorted it out.

12:45 England 491-5
Lots of cricket elsewhere today, not least in Belfast where Ireland have made a solid start in the second one day international against Pakistan are currently 131-2. If you fancy the Irish to pull off another shock and give the ICC a timely reminder of their claims to be part of the next World Cup, you can back them at [3.5]

12:24 England 491-5
Afternoon. Apologies for the slightly delayed start to today's blog but absolutely nothing is happening in Cardiff. Early lunch on its way at 12:30 with a reasonable chance of some play after that. There is some debate over what England should do today: thrash the ball around and go for a declaration or play out time. I know what most spectators would prefer. Get in touch at betfairliveblogger@hotmail.co.uk and let me know what you think England's tactics should be today

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England will have to bat all day and score relatively quickly if they're to have any chance of forcing a win in the First Test. In between the stats, the betting and meticulous description of cakes and refreshments, Andrew Hughes...

Two late wickets saved England's blushes to an extent late on in proceedings yesterday but there's plenty of Sri Lanka batting still to come and England will have to strike early on day two. Follow all the action throughout the...

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