"For the first time in a while I am struggling to stop myself chucking my boots in the car, driving to Cardiff and trying to persuade Stuart Lancaster to give me a game."
Back England to win by under 12.5 points at 2.35/4
Betfair Ambassador Will Greenwood is excited for the last weekend of the Six Nations and he fancies England to squeak past a difficult encounter at the Millendium Stadium...
We had a nice 2.47/5 winner last week when Toby Flood stroked a penalty over the posts to open the scoring against Italy at Twickenham. Admittedly, England didn't produce the steamrolling, barnstorming display we predicted as Italy's defence held up quite well, and the entire team appeared buoyed by the return of the great Sergio Parisse.
It seemed to me like some of the England lads had one eye on a trip to Cardiff and their play against Italy was a bit lateral; it lacked the ingenuity and intensity going forward and, while Italy were defensively very solid, it was easier for them than it should have been. I remember playing against Italy in the McAlpine Stadium back in 1998 ahead of a more important game and we ended up scraping the win by just eight points. These things can happen from time to time; if you know you're likely to playing the biggest game of your career in a fortnight's time, it's very tough not to think about it.
All of which brings me on to this Saturday's crunch game. A final match in Cardiff for England to win their first Grand Slam in ten years ahead of a Lions tour? It does not get bigger than this.
It's tempting for everyone to think that all the pressure ahead of this tie is on England, but that's not strictly true. Wales know that if they win by at least seven points they can secure a defence of their Six Nations crown, and what's more, Welsh rugby fans most certainly do not like to see their boys lose to England at any time, let alone at Cardiff in a crunch game. They'll be feeling it just as much as England, mark my words.
Ahead of Lions selection, it's important that the players involved play the game and not the occasion. A lot of the England team won't have played in Cardiff before, but I don't think that'll be as much of a factor as has been reported for two reasons. Firstly, this team has shown it can handle different types of pressure; both the expectation of a routine win (the game against Scotland at Twickenham, for example) and the in-your-face pressure of a physical, unattractive tie in Ireland. Secondly, England's coaching setup has been everywhere and experienced just about everything. They'll be adept at passing on their experience to the players and should be able to keep them focused.
I will be especially interested in how the battle of the centres plays out. Much has been made of the Tuilagi-Barritt/Twelvetrees v Roberts/Davies battle in there but England will do well to remember that a lot of the threat will come from behind, with North and Cuthbert lending support and giving them plenty more to think about. It's vital England stay robust defensively in the face of that hard running and pressure.
This will be the last game a lot of these Welsh players play before Lions selection, so they'll be desperate to make it count. This will be a tight game, a barn-burner of a match. For the first time in a while I am struggling to stop myself chucking my boots in the car, driving to Cardiff and trying to persuade Stuart Lancaster to give me a game. As a pro, these are the games you live for. Everything's at stake, and it's the finest of margins that will settle it: one missed tackle, one scrappy line-out or one line break could decide where that trophy ends up. Do not miss it.
Recommended Bet
Earlier in the week, I tipped England to nick this game by a small margin, so I think I'll have to stick with that. 2.35/4 is currently the price for England to win by under 12.5 points and, in my view, they can weather the Welsh storm and secure an unforgettable Grand Slam. Hold on to your hats though, because this is going to go to the wire.
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