Showing posts with label hosts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hosts. Show all posts
January 11, 2014
August 21, 2012
Chelsea v Reading: Goals in the offing for hosts
"Reading have only won seven of their 38 road trips in the Premier League to date."
Chelsea's rejigged side made an impressive start at Wigan and will no doubt relish the chance to put on a show for their fans against Reading...
Chelsea v Reading, Wednesday 19:45, Match odds: Chelsea 1.271/4, Reading 15.5n/a, The Draw 6.411/2
Reading will be delighted after salvaging a point from their opening fixture with Stoke, but a midweek trip to Chelsea will be an altogether more daunting experience.
A lot was made in pre-season about how Chelsea's new wealth of attacking talent would migrate into the side, however Eden Hazard in particular proved that he could walk the walk as well as talk the talk.
Hazard was involved in both goals against Wigan and already the Belgian looks like becoming one of those players with the ability to win games on his own.
With such encouraging debuts for new stars Hazard and Oscar, you would expect Chelsea to overwhelm the Royals in defence as they did in the early stages at the DW Stadium.
If Roman Abramovich wanted attacking football then he also must have cracked a smile when witnessing the performance of Chelsea's new marauding right winger, Branislav Ivanovic!
The west Londoners laid down an impressive marker at Wigan and in front of their fans you just feel that the Blues will outclass newly promoted Reading.
The teams have only met four times in the Premier League, with Chelsea winning all but one of them and drawing the other 2-2.
The Berkshire sides' away record against the big teams makes fairly woeful reading too; in their previous stint in the top flight, Reading took only five away points in total against last season's top six clubs. And as Opta tell us, Reading have only won seven of their 38 road trips in the Premier League to date.
One shred of positivity though is that the visitors have managed to find the back of the net in 19 of their last 20 games, albeit against lesser opposition. It is difficult to look beyond the home win here at 1.271/4.
Chelsea to score in both halves
With Chelsea's beginning the season so strongly, there is potential here for a bit of a goal fest.
With the likes of Hazard, Juan Mata, Fernando Torres, Frank Lampard and Oscar all providing a goal threat, it is difficult to see Reading keeping the hosts out in either half and at 1.774/5, this makes an attractive punt.
Stamford Bridge is traditionally a prosperous home for Chelsea, in the last three league games of last season there, they plundered eight goals, only failing to register twice there in the whole of the 2011/12 Premier League campaign.
Sending off
Given the derby-like nature of this fixture, it's not at all surprising that it has thrown up a few disciplinary issues over the years.
As Opta tell us, there have been three red cards in the four Premier League games between Reading and Chelsea (two for Reading, one for Chelsea), so
backing a red card at 5.39/2 has a certain sadistic pull. Calm down boys.
Best Bet: Back Chelsea to score in both halves @ 1.774/5
Other Recommended Bet: Back there to be a sending off @ 5.39/2
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January 27, 2012
Feyenoord v Ajax: Game-raising hosts to win De Klassieker
Betfair Live Video 
/ Michael Lintorn / 27 January 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Ronald Koeman managed Ajax for four years, winning the title twice
"Feyenoord have spent almost the whole season in the top six, and that position owes plenty to victories over PSV and Twente and a draw away to Ajax."
Ajax coach Frank de Boer has been talking up his side's superiority ahead of their trip to Feyenoord, but Michael Lintorn fears that he is setting himself up for a fall...
Feyenoord v Ajax, Sunday 11:30 BST, Betfair Live Video, Match odds: Feyenoord [3.05], Ajax [2.4], The Draw [3.6]
It has been ages since Feyenoord properly challenged for the Eredivisie title let alone won it, however their clashes with Ajax are still reverently regarded De Klassieker, much to the annoyance of PSV, who have actually claimed seven more championships.
Everyone in the Netherlands knows that Feyenoord are no longer a leading force, rendering it all the more unnecessary for Ajax boss Frank de Boer to note in the build-up to this latest showdown that "we are the better team, because we have better individual players".
He's right, and it certainly isn't a secret, but surely all such a comment will do is raise questions as to how such superiority translates into only a three-point gap between the two in the table and prompt Feyenoord to fight even harder to prove him wrong.
And though Ronald Koeman's side lost to lowly VVV last week, they have no trouble finding motivation for these fixtures. The fallen giants have spent almost the whole season in the top six, and that position owes plenty to victories over PSV and Twente and a draw away to Ajax.
Those wins against the capital club's title rivals came in their last two home games, so odds of [3.05] on them completing a spectacular hat-trick are rather tempting.
Recent matches at De Kuip have been rather eventful, yet collisions between these two have been less goal-heavy than your average Eredivisie encounter - the division's goal per game average is 3.27 - over the last few years.
Their last four league meetings have produced a comparatively paltry nine strikes, three of those clocking it at under 2.5 goals, so at chunky odds of [2.46], it appears worth backing that to continue.
Best Bet: Feyenoord to win @ [3.05]
Other Recommended Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ [2.46]
Ajax were beaten at home by AZ Alkmaar in midweek, but with their title bid in the balance, Michael Lintorn fancies them to return the favour......
This Roma side still has plenty of star names but they lack consistency both in terms of results and team selection. We have to back Juventus, says Dave Farrar....
Benfica once again performed their European duties admirably in midweek, but Michael Lintorn suspects that they will slip up in the league on Sunday......
January 25, 2012
Cardiff v Crystal Palace: Hosts to fire their way to the final
Carling Cup / Michael Lintorn / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Kenny Miller has struck ten times since his summer move to Cardiff
"Saturday’s 3-2 defeat of Portsmouth, as well as avenging another memorable cup reverse, sees Cardiff enter this must-win game on a run of eight home victories in nine."
A 1-0 defeat at Selhurst Park leaves Cardiff with it all to do in the second leg of their Carling Cup semi-final, but Michael Lintorn thinks they will deliver...
Cardiff v Crystal Palace, Tuesday 19:45 BST, BBC2, Match odds: Cardiff [1.77], Crystal Palace [5.5], The Draw [3.8]
There aren't many instances in which fickleness can be viewed as an asset but the ability to switch loyalties as frequently, decisively and effectively as Craig Bellamy moves teams is a positive when it comes to betting on Carling Cup semi-finals.
That's why, a mere fortnight after successfully backing Crystal Palace to triumph 1-0 in the first leg of their jostle with Cardiff for a Wembley place, this writer is changing sides and planning a celebratory Ayatollah in expectation of them overhauling the deficit.
One of the reasons for favouring Palace in the initial tie was the frequency of home victories in Carling Cup semi-finals, and they are even more common in second legs. The last six have all been won by the hosts, with five of those - including each of the last four - progressing to the final.
Further cause for backing the Bluebirds both to win at [1.79] and qualify at [2.1] is provided by the way that both have performed since the clash at Selhurst Park, with Cardiff taking four points from two Championship fixtures while Palace gained only one.
It is arguable no doubt that the difference owes much to the Londoners' position in the middle of the table enabling them to focus on the cup, going through the motions in the meantime, whereas their Welsh opponents are battling to sustain a promotion challenge.
However, those results have helped Malky Mackay's men rebuild the momentum that was dwindling slightly ahead of their first-leg loss. Saturday's 3-2 defeat of Portsmouth, as well as avenging another memorable cup reverse, sees them enter this must-win game on a run of eight home victories in nine.
It isn't just the home win rate that is high in Carling Cup semi-final second legs, as each of the last six have produced three goals or more [[2.26]], with half of those producing over 3.5 goals too, a massive [4.5] prospect on this occasion.
Cardiff have scored eight in their last three outings at their Cardiff City Stadium, conceding six in the process. With Dougie Freedman's visitors sure to fancy their chances of an away goal having fired in five of their last seven on the road, both teams to score shouldn't be discounted either at [2.12].
The Bluebirds' last two matches in front of their fans saw them net three times to prevail despite leaking at the other end and it is [17.0] for that trend to be maintained by virtue of a 3-1 success.
Best Bet: Cardiff to qualify @ [2.1]
Other Recommended Bet: Cardiff to win 3-1 @ [17.0]
Cardiff knocked out Crystal Palace on penalties but are far from being favourites on Betfair's Carling Cup winner market, despite being the only team guaranteed a place in the final....
Michael Lintorn expects Manchester City to exit their third competition in 50 days when fighting to overturn a 0-1 Carling Cup semi-final deficit at Anfield......
There are rumours that Liverpool are about to purchase one of the most hyped stars in the Football League, in the process weakening a side who they might face at Wembley......
November 28, 2011
Napoli v Juventus: Hosts to raise their game against leaders
Italian Football / Michael Lintorn / 28 November 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Edinson Cavani scored a hat-trick in his last home game against Juventus
"Napoli have shown throughout the campaign that they are a team for the big occasions and should avoid the disastrous scenario of allowing the unbeaten Bianconeri to pull 12 points clear of them."
Despite their dismal recent domestic form, Michael Lintorn thinks that Napoli are a massive threat to Juventus' unbeaten run...
Napoli v Juventus, Tuesday 19:45 BST, Betfair Live Video, Match odds: Napoli [2.6], Juventus [3.05], The Draw [3.35]
Walter Mazzarri maintains that it is the media rather than him expecting a scudetto challenge from Napoli. However honest that statement is, it will be very difficult for them to mount one if they lose Tuesday's game in hand with leaders Juventus.
The joy of a Champions League win over Manchester City was swiftly replaced by the increasingly familiar feeling of domestic disappointment at Atalanta, where they made four changes to the side and had to salvage a point in injury time.
Yet the Partenopei have shown throughout the campaign that they are a team for the big occasions and should avoid the disastrous scenario of allowing the unbeaten Bianconeri to pull 12 points clear of them, instead perhaps closing the gap to six.
The hosts have won just four of their first 11 Serie A fixtures, but three of those came against the clubs that joined them in the top four last season, with their 2-0 victory over Udinese last month ending their undefeated start.
And as they welcome bottom-of-the-table Lecce to the San Paolo on Saturday, Napoli will surely field their strongest possible XI against Juventus, meaning recalls for tireless right wing back Christian Maggio and unsung hero of the attack Ezequiel Lavezzi.
Juventus share their opponents' appetite for the glamorous encounters and have also seen off both Milan giants, claiming another huge result at the weekend away to Lazio. They weren't at their best in a 1-0 triumph though, and lost 3-0 in Naples in 2010-11.
Over/under 2.5 goals
Alessandro Matri has been a revelation since joining the Old Lady in January, but his team-mates spurned several opportunities in Rome and such wastefulness will prove costly against Napoli, who have kept three clean sheets in four at home.
Four of Antonio Conte's men's first five away matches have featured two goals or fewer, with them netting one or fewer in four instances, so under 2.5 goals has to be fancied at [1.76].
Best Bet: Napoli to win @ [2.6]
Other Recommended Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ [1.76]
Even with Antonio Cassano likely to miss much of the remainder of the season, AC Milan should not be considering a move for Carlos Tevez, argues Michael Lintorn......
With Napoli set to face Manchester City in midweek in a huge Champions League fixture, Dave Farrar believes Lazio, and their excellent away form, can take full advantage....
It's not even December yet but the January transfer rumours are already starting to fly, with Didier Drogba thought to be on his way to Italy...
February 8, 2011
Cricket World Cup Winner Betting: A shootout between the hosts
Cricket World Cup / Editor / 07 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
/ Editor / 07 February 2011 / Leave a Comment Kumar Sangakkara's Sri Lanka have a wonderful chance as joint-hosts
"So that leaves us with the big one to answer: India or Sri Lanka? Easy. We let the odds be our guide. Sri Lanka are a mighty good price at 6.00 considering they have been set up to succeed while India are contracting too quickly at 4.30."
Once the draw has been decided, the strength of the teams considered and the numbers crunched, India and Sri Lanka emerge as by far the two likeliest winners. But who should our money be on, asks Ed Hawkins.
On the face of it, the World Cup looks confusing: three host countries, 14 teams, 13 venues, 49 matches and six weeks to find a winner. But a much-maligned marathon of a tournament is actually the punters' friend.
Thanks to a projected draw and India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh somehow managing to convince the ICC they are deserving of a home draws in the knockout stages, no matter where they finish, it is pretty simple.
Simple in the regard that the tournament is heavily skewed in favour of India and Sri Lanka. On surfaces which the rest of the competing nations, Bangladesh and Pakistan excepted of course, find alien you won't be going far wrong by backing either MS Dhoni's team or Kumar Sangakkara's.
India and Sri Lanka are on the opposite sides of the draw so there is a very real possibility - in line with outright market - that the top two contest the final at the Wankhede stadium in Mumbai on April 2. Both team are just over evens to make the showpiece.
Those who have been paying attention may squeal 'hang on, you said the hosts were guaranteed home ties in the knockout stage so what happens if they have to play each other?'. Good question. Venues will be decided by the seedings for the tournament with India ranked above Sri Lanka, and the Lankans above Bangladesh.
The top four from two groups of eight will progress. Group A consists of Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Zimbabwe, Canada and Kenya. In Group B are India, South Africa, England, West Indies, Bangladesh, Ireland and Holland.
Each winner of the group will play the fourth placed team in the opposite section in the quarter-finals with the second and third-placed teams playing off. You can check the draw here. If we used the odds as our guide to predict the semi-finals, it would look like this: Sri Lanka v South Africa, India v Australia.
Rarely do cricket World Cups respect the odds, however and there are sure to be upsets along the way. For example, [2.03] is available that not all of the Big Eight qualify. Indeed, Bangladesh should make the quarter-finals - they could torment West Indies and England in Mirpur and Chittagong respectively - and at [60.00] they represent an outstanding trading opportunity.
Pakistan are in the same boat at an attractive [11.00]. Despite worries about corruption, they are far too big, especially with the skill and knowledge at their disposal on dusty wickets. They bat deep and in Umar Gul, Wahab Riaz, Sohail Tanvir, Shoaib Akhtar and an army of spinners they have the best bowling attack in the competition.
Tired England, who are [8.80], tepid West Indies at [22.00]and torrid New Zealand are ruled out at a point bigger because of their awful record in Asia in the last five years. They have win-loss ratios of 0.60, 0.57 and 0.41 respectively.
Australia at [6.60] and [6.80] South Africa fare much better in this regard. If there is to be an upset it might just be that Australia claim a fourth consecutive title. With a win-loss ratio of 2.33 they have the best record of any side, including the hosts.
South Africa are organised and efficient but as a wise man once said 'choking is what happens when you stop playing with instinct'. The Proteas always play by numbers.
So that leaves us with the big one to answer: India or Sri Lanka? Easy. We let the odds be our guide. Sri Lanka are a mighty good price at [6.00] considering they have been set up to succeed while India are contracting too quickly at [4.30].
Neither outfit have been exactly firing in recent years - India are ranked fourth on wins with Sri Lanka just behind in fifth - but there is remarkable pressure on Dhoni's team to claim glory as the first main host to do so and, notably in the World Twenty20 in England, they have proven they don't like such a burden.
Recommended bets: Sri Lanka to win World Cup [6.00], Bangladesh trade to win World Cup at [60.00], Pakistan trade to win World Cup at [11.00]
Win-loss ratios last two years: Aus 2.21, SA 1.83, India 1.47, SL 1.43 Eng 1.20, Bang 1.00, Pak 0.58, NZ 0.57, WI 0.39
Win-loss ratios last five years in India: Ind, Aus 2.00, WI 1.00, SL 0.85, SA 0.75, Pak 0.60, Bang 0.50, NZ 0.28, Eng 0.16
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