Newcastle v Arsenal: Gunners to continue proving their doubters wrong

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Watford v Crystal Palace: Two club legends give their verdict on the Playoff Final

"Although Palace defended well against Brighton, I really can’t see Watford not scoring at Wembley. I think the game will get stretched towards the end of normal time and Watford will win it 2-1 (10.09/1)."

- Nick Wright

It's Watford v Crystal Palace in the Championship Playoff Final. Callum Davis spoke to Shaun Derry and Nick Wright, two men who know what it's like to reach the Premier League through the playoffs with Crystal Palace (in 2004) and Watford (in 1999) respectively, about their memories of the showpiece occasion and who they fancy for promotion this time round...

What are your memories of the game?

Shaun Derry (SD): My main memory of the game is that it was incredibly tight. We were coming into the game as underdogs while West Ham had been relegated the previous season and everyone fancied them to go back up. We didn't let any of that talk faze us at all in the build up to the game and our preparation couldn't have been better. The manager, Iain Dowie, kept drilling into us that we were more prepared than them and he turned out to be completely right. They were probably more nervous than us as the pressure was all on them to get promoted and as a result they didn't really threaten us. Despite the significance of the game, we were all very relaxed as a team and I think that helped us to play to our fullest potential on the day.

Nick, what are your memories of your spectacular goal?

Nick Wright (NW): I get asked this a lot and I honestly remember it all perfectly! As the ball came over I was in my usual position on the edge of the six yards box and I remember Andy Todd was defending under the bar. Andy headed the ball out to me with more of a looping header rather than a proper clearance. It all happened very quickly but as the ball came over my shoulder I just focused on getting as good a contact on it as it I could. I had to look through a pair of legs to see where the ball had gone but as soon as I saw the net move I knew I'd scored it. From then I remember I ran as fast as I could up the other end of the pitch towards the Watford fans where I was pole axed by Paul Robinson from behind with a rugby tackle that could have genuinely ended my career!

Was it the highlight of your career?

SD: Oh of course yes. Obviously it gave me my first taste of the Premier League and I was incredibly relieved and thankful to be given the opportunity to play at the top level with Palace. But more than that I was proud of the way we went about it. Iain Dowie had taken over near the beginning of the season when we were second from bottom of the Championship and at that stage we weren't thinking about the playoffs at all, it was more about making sure that we were going to stay up.

To go from that position to ending up in the Playoff Final and then getting promoted was an incredible experience. Iain Dowie managed to create a real close knit group of a team with a great team spirit and I see a lot of that team spirit in this season's Palace side.

NW: Oh definitely, people always say that their dream as a boy was to score in an FA Cup Final, and that was certainly mine too, but let me tell you the feeling of scoring that goal was even better. To score the best goal of my career in the biggest game in the club's history to take them to the Premier League was unreal.

What do you make of the current side?

SD: I always keep an eye out for how Palace do because it's still a club which means an awful lot to me. Just over two years ago they were close to going out of business and to see where they are now is a real pleasure for me to watch. They've taken huge steps since those dark days and I really hope they can go one step further and make the Premier League.

For me the core of their side is the back four and the two holding players in front. Everything they do is based around that stability which they have at the back, and in Miles Jedinak they have a real leader who has stepped up to the plate as captain without Paddy McCarthy in the side. I wasn't surprised at all to see how well they played against Brighton and that performance was all down to the back six making themselves so difficult to break down. It allowed Palace to soak up the pressure from Brighton and gave players like Wilfried Zaha and Yannick Bolasie the room to break on the counter.

NW: I do a lot work for Watford Radio so I've been fortunate enough to watch them a lot this season so I've been able to keep good track of them. I have to say that they're an exceptionally talented side. Their quality of movement, passing ability and creativity has been fantastic to watch.

My only concern is that they have relied on a handful of key players to get the job done this season and when those players don't perform the team tend not to function either.

Can your team win?

SD: I've got a sneaky feeling that Palace can do it. In many ways Watford and Brighton are very similar sides, they both like to keep possession and attack as much as possible and, as they proved at the Amex, Palace are well suited to play against a team like that. If the Palace back six can keep Watford's front three of Vydra, Anya and Deeney quiet then I think they'll will nick a win just like we did in 2004.

NW: Yeah of course they can and I'm fully expecting them to. I was at the game on Friday against Leicester and the atmosphere at the end after that finish to the game was unbelievable. The town and the team are on a massive high and I'd even go as far to say that the momentum is more with Watford than it is with Palace. There are also some good omens on our side as well, it's seven years since Watford were promoted in 2006 and it was seven years before that when we won the Play-Off Final against Bolton. I'm just praying that the seven year rule continues to be true for us!

Your recommended bet?

SD: Like I said I think Palace will try to make it a tight game and will try and soak up all the pressure from Watford. I have a funny feeling that it could be a repeat of the 2004 final so I'll go for Palace to shave it 1-0 (9.08/1) . Saying that I can see it being incredibly close! To a certain extent Watford are an unknown quantity with the amount of foreign players they have in the team so Palace will need to do their homework.

NW: Although Palace defended well against Brighton, I really can't see Watford not scoring at Wembley. I think the game will get stretched towards the end of normal time and Watford will win it 2-1 (10.09/1). 

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La Liga Preview: Emery could leave Sociedad biting their nails

"Over 2.5 Goals has been the right bet in 7/8 Sevilla home games and 8/13 Sociedad away matches"

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75/7

The Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan is the setting for the biggest game of La Liga's ante-penultimate weekend. Tobias Gourlay reckons in-form Sevilla's clash with fading Sociedad will be fun...

Zaragoza v Athletic Bilbao
Sunday 18:00

Zaragoza 1.910/11 Athletic 4.3100/30 draw 3.9n/a

Athletic are unbeaten in four and the seven points accrued in that run will likely keep their 'never been relegated' boasts alive.

Just to be sure, Marcelo Bielsa's men need one more point from the final three rounds of the season.

Seven points from nine have fired Zaragoza out of the relegation zone, but they need more wins.

Athletic have scored in 12/14 on the road and conceded in 12/14 on the road.

Zaragoza have been potent in attack recently - scoring six in two at La Romareda - and porous in defence all season, shutting out their visitors in only 3/17.

Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.84/5

Barcelona v Valladolid
Sunday 20:00

Barcelona 1.3130/100 Valladolid 11.010/1 draw 6.611/2

Barcelona are champions and are now playing for the artificial prize of equalling Real Madrid's all-time points record (100, set last year).

To make three figures Tito Vilanova's men must win each of their last three games.

Leo Messi will sit out the rest of the season, but other team news is scant.

We'll focus on the other end of the pitch. Valladolid have scored in nine straight rounds of La Liga and in each of the last 17 in which talismanic wide-forward Patrick Ebert has appeared.

Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.774/5

Granada v Osasuna
Saturday 19:00
Granada 2.186/5 Osasuna 4.216/5 draw 3.259/4

Together on 36 points, these two are four clear of the drop zone. 

A draw would be useful to both, and respect the improvements they have recently shown: Osasuna beat Getafe last time out, while Granada are unbeaten in four.

That said, the hosts still have La Liga's worst home record (W4-D6-L7) and haven't scored more than once in any of Lucas Alcaraz's seven matches at Los Carmenes.

We're ready to take them on - and will front up with either the straight draw or a bet that goes even further.

The visitors have scored twice or more in 3/6 on the road. Backing Osasuna 0 & +0.5 on the Asian Handicap pays out on half your stake if the game finishes all-square and you'll get a full payout if the away side take all three points.

Recommended Bet
Back Osasuna 0 & +0.5 @ 2.26/5

Sevilla v Sociedad
Saturday 21:00
Sevilla 2.0811/10 Sociedad 3.613/5 draw 4.03/1

In the race for Spain's final Champions League spot, Real Sociedad have given up a five-point lead over Valencia in the last couple of weeks.

Problems are arising at the back: Philippe Montanier's side have conceded exactly twice in 5/7 home and away. 

Unai Emery has won 7/8 at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan. In all seven wins Sevilla have been ahead by half-time. If you fancy them to confirm Sociedad's loss of form, take them at 3.613/5 in the Half Time/Full Time market.

Over 2.5 Goals is a safer play. It's been the right bet in 7/8 Sevilla home games and 8/13 Sociedad away matches.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75/7

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Man United 12/13: Arguably their best title winners ever

"With virtually three generations of United players clubbing together to wrestle the title back off Manchester City, from the evergreen Ryan Giggs to 21-year-old Phil Jones, there has certainly been something special forged at Old Trafford this season."

After Manchester United claimed their 20th English title with time to spare, Christian Crowther assesses where this current crop rank...

In his triumphant post-match interview after securing the 13th Premier League of his tenure, Sir Alex Ferguson himself suggested this particular crop of title winners were arguably the best that he'd ever assembled at Old Trafford.

However, many other commentators on the game have been far more conservative in their assessments of this season's United vintage.

So, who is right? An obvious place to start is the facts. As Fergie alluded to in his interview we shouldn't let nostalgia get in the way of judgement.

This squad may not have been challenged rigorously enough by the competition, but they have reached 84 points with four games left to play, something they've never achieved before.

The Red Devils now have a shot at surpassing Chelsea's record Premier League tally of 95 points if they can claim maximum points from their last four fixtures, starting against Arsenal on Sunday.

United's chances of keeping that ambition alive at the Emirates are currently rated at 3.45n/a.

Of course, that match could well see Robin van Persie make his return to north London, his move to Manchester vindicated by a league winners' medal around his neck.

And if you're looking for more evidence of the quality of this side then the Dutchman has to be right up there with the best title-winning strikers that United have fielded.

The second goal of his hat-trick last night had Fergie purring and his 24-goal contribution to this victorious campaign cannot be underestimated. 

The Scot said: "In terms of impact, he has had as big an impact as anyone I can imagine. He's been unbelievable. His early form in the first six months was fantastic."

In light of Luis Suarez's impending suspension, RVP seems to have the Premier League top scorer market wrapped up, now available at 1.031/33 to scoop the honour. 

With virtually three generations of United players clubbing together to wrestle the title back off Manchester City, from the evergreen Ryan Giggs to 21-year-old Phil Jones, there has certainly been something special forged at Old Trafford this season.

In addition, the largely unsung Michael Carrick has finally been recognised for his efforts with a PFA player of the year nomination, which highlights how far he has come this season.

While Ferguson heaped special praise on the aforementioned players, he was particular delighted with the potential of his young players to go on winning in the future.

Whether you still pine for the class of 1999, it's kind of hard to disagree that this side aren't at least as good.

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Home and Away: Fenerbahce to seal qualification on their own patch

Bet 1: Fenerbahce (HOME) @ 1.95
Bet 2: Benfica (AWAY) @ 2.84

Jonno Turner looks to European action in his quest for more winners...

We're off to Turkey for our first pick of the day - as Fenerbahce host Plzen at the Sukru Sarakoglu Stadium, looking to build on a 1-0 lead from the first leg of this Europa League tie.

Aykut Kocaman's side were impressive in that fixture last week, and will be looking to nick another goal here in order to kill the hopes of their opponents as soon as possible.

Three wins from their last four will certainly have the hosts full of confidence, and 10 goals scored in that time suggests that they are well equipped to notch in front of their own fans here.

Fener have not lost in eight outings at home in this competition - and two clean sheets from their last three indicates that Plzen may struggle to secure the vital away goals they so crave in this clash.

The Czechs head into this clash having won just one of their last three, and two wins from five on the road in this trophy suggests that Pavel Vrba's side have an uphill struggle ahead.

Viktoria must attack their hosts in this game - and that should lead to an open game, with plenty of action at both ends.

But the Fenerbahce defence looked extremely disciplined in the first leg, soaking up everything their hosts threw at them, and I think that the outcome of this clash will be tight, too.

The Turks are likely to be without forward Wébo, who scored the all-important goal in the Czech Republic last week, but have more than enough attacking quality to cover - as a 4-1 thrashing of Bursaspor at the weekend showed.

Bet 1: Fenerbahce (HOME) @ 1.95

Staying in this competition for our second selection, as Benfica travel to Bordeaux with a 1-0 advantage.

The Portuguese side are on an incredible run which has seen them undefeated since October last year - and boss Jorge Jesus will be desperate for his charges to extend that form here.

A 1-0 win in the first leg of this tie was the visitors' fifth clean sheet from their last half a dozen games on their own patch, and their away form is similarly impressive, with four clean sheets from five on the road.

That will give the Eagles much confidence ahead of this clash, and a 5-0 thrashing of fellow Primeira Liga side Gil Vicente at the weekend underlined just how much quality they possess in the final third.

Rumour has it that Jesus could be missing Luisao and Garay from his backline, but the visitors have enough to cover those losses if so, and I think they are still a decent back to hold onto their advantage.

Bordeaux ended a four match losing streak with a 1-0 defeat of Bastia on Sunday - and Francois Gillot's side will be looking to end an inconsistent run which has seen them win just three of their last eight on their own patch, by recording back to back wins for the first time since November.

But Les Girondins have kept just three clean sheets from their last eight in this competition, and I think that could be telling as they welcome a potent Benfica side to France.

And Gillot will be without Diego Rolan, Julien Faubert, Evan Chevalier and Landry Nguemo, who all miss out on this clash.

Bet 2: Benfica (AWAY) @ 2.84

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The Joker's Bet of the Day: Someone will keep their end up

The Joker's Bet of the Day:

Say 'No' to Both Teams to Score? @ 2.01/1 in Fenerbahce v Viktoria Plzen

Looking for a Plzen result in Turkey

Well that was no Thun at all.

A bore draw in Switzerland yesterday (St Gallen 0 Thun 0) so the Joker's heading straight to Turkey. Like the anti-Kubilay Turkyilmaz.

One team has failed to score in each of Fenerbahce's last seven Europa League games and in 10/14 of Viktoria Plzen's most recent outings in the competition.

Recommended Bet: Say 'No' to Both Teams to Score? @ 2.01/1 in Fenerbahce v Viktoria Plzen

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McLaren and Red Bull make their mark at Spa as F1 show gets back on the road

"Hamilton can be expected to bounce back in Monza next weekend, and with Red Bull traditionally struggling in Italy – Vettel’s 2011 win notwithstanding – getting behind McLaren at 4.3100/30 might be wise at this stage."

Tipped for a pole to chequered flag win by BB F1 blogger James Frankland, McLaren's Jenson Button did the business at Spa to give his team a boost in their Constructors' Championship bid

McLaren driver Jenson Button dominated the Belgian Grand Prix to win from pole position, staying out of trouble in a large first-corner melee that eliminated several runners and caused the safety car to be deployed for four laps while hundreds of carbon fibre shards were cleared from the track.

Fernando Alonso was amongst those whose races ended at La Source, caught up in an accident triggered by Romain Grosjean squeezing McLaren's Lewis Hamilton on the run to the first corner. The two cars touched, Hamilton slewed into the back of the Lotus and pushed Grosjean into the first corner, cartwheeling over Alonso's Ferrari with Sergio Perez caught up as well.

Button used the pace of his McLaren to good effect, building an advantage over the rest of the field as soon as the safety car departed. Kimi Raikkonen, expected to shine on this circuit, suffered from a lack of grip and gradually went backwards in the early stint before recovering to finish third. Sebastian Vettel was the big mover, going from tenth at the start to finish second on the road, 13.6 seconds behind the McLaren driver but unable to make inroads into Button's lead.

Alonso's DNF meant there was an opportunity to make inroads into his championship lead and the 18 points scored by Vettel move him into second place in the Driver's Championship behind Alonso, the gap reduced from 40 points to 24. Should Alonso fail to finish again, and Vettel capitalise with a victory, the Red Bull driver will go into the lead of the championship and so backing him at 3.7511/4 might be a shrewd move. Alonso himself admits the Ferrari is the slowest of the four leading cars so perhaps his time at the top is coming to an end.

Hamilton's DNF has widened his odds from 7.613/2 at the start to 8.27/1 now - somewhat surprising given that he still has the same points gap to Alonso, 47, that he had going into this weekend, but he has lost an opportunity to reduce the gap by failing to finish in Belgium. Alonso himself has widened slightly from 2.0811/10 to 2.447/5 and is still the favourite, but with eight races to go he cannot afford to draw any more blanks.

Red Bull have extended their title lead by eight points over nearest challengers McLaren, who have moved away from Lotus thanks to Button's win, with Lotus only managing third with Raikkonen.

Previously I've suggested that McLaren need both cars scoring points in order to have any chance of overhauling Red Bull, and while only Button scored today it is the #3 McLaren which has needed to step up recently. Hamilton can be expected to bounce back in Monza next weekend, and with Red Bull traditionally struggling in Italy - Vettel's 2011 win notwithstanding - getting behind McLaren at 4.3100/30 might be wise at this stage.

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League One Previews: Iron to show their metal against Dons

English Football League / Alan Dudman / 12 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Scunthorpe boss Alan Knill

"Yes Scunthorpe lack a cutting edge up front but they look really solid defensively at the moment, and they are 10 without defeat and haven't lost a game since February."

Enjoying a 10-game unbeaten run, Scunthorpe have enough about them to frustrate MK Dons on Saturday says Alan Dudman, whilst Sheff Wed should win at Colchester.

Colchester v Sheffield Wednesday, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Colchester [4.4], Sheff Wed [2.02], The Draw [3.5]

Like so many teams over the Easter period, coping with two games in three days is both mentally and physically draining. But Sheffield Wednesday survived their double scraps to come away with a healthy six points over the holiday weekend, with victories against Oldham and Huddersfield.

Easter Monday's TV involved an episode of Last Of The Summer Wine, so it was an easy choice to switch over to the live encounter involving the Owls, and I wasn't disappointed. A clinical 3-0 win over Oldham showed their tremendous pace in the side with the flying machine Michail Antonio. I was also impressed with their front two of Niall Ranger and Gary Madine, with the latter bagging his 18th goal of the season.

Wednesday are eight points off the leaders Charlton, and it seems the second automatic place is a straight shoot-out with neighbours Sheffield United. Manager Dave Jones has used a 4-4-2, but they look best when stretching the play out wide. Saturday's 2-0 win over rivals Huddersfield highlighted their movement and class, and they were all over their Yorkshire opponents.

Colchester's season is kaput following a lethargic display against Bury on Monday. They were thumped 4-1and it was a reminder of the sort of poor performance they were always capable of during various points of this campaign. They were weak in defence against the Shakers and chased the game at 2-0 to become too open. Us boss John Ward has once again overlooked a season which has fizzled out.

Wednesday are a side that keep going (much like those repeats of Last Of The Summer Wine), and haven't conceded a goal in their last four matches.

Back Sheff Wed @ [2.02]
Back 0-1 @ [8.0] and 0-2 @ [11.0] Correct Scores

Preston v Huddersfield, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Preston [3.6], Huddersfield [2.24], The Draw [3.4]

Huddersfield's two games over the weekend were nothing short of disastrous. With 2-0 defeats against Bournemouth and Sheffield Wednesday, the Terriers are wobbling at the wrong time. Admittedly four matches in 10 days is a cruel schedule, but the performance on Monday against the Cherries was woeful.

I watched Town when they visited London last week and defeated Orient 3-1. However, I was quite disappointed by their lack of football. They are big and strong, direct and physical, with manager Simon Grayson using three strikers shaped into an ill-fitting 4-5-1 whenever they had to defend. Multi-goal striker Jordan Rhodes scored twice that night but looked isolated for long periods - which has been the case over the two recent games.

Preston are still trying to find the 'Westley Way' - whatever that is. Graham Westley was happy with their performance against Stevenage on Monday, suggesting it was their best yet and GW spoke of energy levels and front foot areas - which is pretty typical of him.

The hosts however are tight at the back, but equally thin on goal returns - scoring just three goals in their last five home games. They were not exactly ambitious going forward in the match on Saturday against the MK Dons and I have a feeling both might just cancel each other out here, as the two managers are fearful of a loss for different reasons.

Huddersfield look an awful price for a team that have performed poorly recently.

Lay Huddersfield @ [2.3]
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [1.94]
Back 0-0 @ [12.0] & 1-1 @ [7.4] Correct Scores

Scunthorpe v MK Dons, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Scunthorpe [3.0], MK Dons [2.5], The Draw [3.4]

Some of my favourite Alans in history have been Devonshire, Igglesden and Wells, but the Scunthorpe contender of Knill will be high on the list of the Lincolnshire faithful. Iron boss Alan Knill (to give him his full name), has turned around his side's fortunes to such an extent that relegation talk looks rather misplaced now. They have 50 points.

Remember this was a side struggling at Christmas, but Scunthorpe have found some togetherness with a strong unit at the back. Yes they lack a cutting edge up front but they look really solid defensively at the moment. They are 10 without defeat, and haven't lost a game since February. For correct score traders and backers, they have kept four clean sheets in their last five games.

The MK Dons should be an automatic promotion team in my opinion, with a side that can always play some high quality football. Monday's 3-0 win over Tranmere saw the club break the 100 goals in a season mark - a record for Dons. However the Saturday 1-1 against Preston explained why they are not in the top two, with a good display that lacked the ruthless skills of a higher team.

I have always liked them as a team and in particular their manager Karl Robinson, but this will be a tough match and the Dons might find themselves frustrated.

Back The Draw @ [3.4]
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [1.98]
Back 0-0 @ [12.0] & 1-1 Correct Scores @ [7.4]

Ian Lamont knows Rotherham's chances of beating Shrewsbury are reflected in the price but it's a gamble worth taking. So Rotherham it is, plus the remainder of the weekends' best bets....

Roberto Martinez's Wigan and Brian Horton's Macclesfield are both strong odds-on for the drop but they're two sides who promise to carry on fighting till the bitter end under good managers. One or both can beat the drop, says Gary...

Ian Lamont gets stuck in to the Good Friday League Two programme with intriguing bets on some of the most enticing fixtures......

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Both Test cricket and the IPL have their merits

Bat and ball / Frank Gregan / 09 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Textbook stuff. Kraigg Brathwaite plays the forward defensive in style against Australia at the weekend.

"The ICC has to come out of denial and accept that there are three formats that need to be fitted sensibly into the international calendar without the aid of a shoehorn."

There's as much to be said about a controlled, patient fifty in Test cricket as there is in an explosive cameo in T20. All forms of cricket have their place in the game and unique skills. The ICC just has to do make room for it all, says Frank Gregan.

Last week there was so much cricket going on around the world that bat versus ball hogged the majority of the allocated chin-wag time with the 'grumpy corner' in our local. The club is a mini-society and like every society, it has its guilty secrets and it was my turn to get caught out as we reviewed the week.

"What about that performance by that West Indian batsman, what's his name?" asked one of the regulars.

"Dwayne Bravo, Chennai Super Kings, you're on about his unbeaten knock of 43 from 18 balls against Deccan;" I replied, somewhat too smugly. Cue the tumbleweed and the embarrassed shuffling of feet. The tone of the conversation had been lowered with talk of the cricketing equivalent of pornography, the Indian Premier League.

It turns out that the innings the grumpy member was referring to was that of teenager Kraigg Brathwaite who showed maturity beyond his years whilst stubbornly amassing a total of 57 from 199 deliveries and frustrating the Australian bowlers. His innings was a polar opposite to that of his fellow West Indian, a slow- motion grind compared to the chaotic and glitzy cameo of Bravo's, that included a six off a leading edge. Bravo is in India courtesy of a No Objection Certificate issued by the WICB. NOCs are a controversial subject in the Caribbean.

The West Indian's participation in the IPL turned the conversation around to an oft-debated subject; is there too much cricket being played on too many fronts and in particular, is the twenty over format nothing more than a dumbed down loss leader invented for those who don't appreciate the 'real game?'

The shortest format of the game was introduced to attract the 'beer after work crowd.' What better way to spend a warm (well 14 degrees!) English summer evening than chilling out and watching the local first class team in action in a game that produces a result in three hours?

It worked, it attracted people into grounds that had never seen live cricket before and because of the volume of exciting finishes, thousands of new supporters were hooked.

From its humble beginnings the twenty over game has kicked on, shrugged off the ridicule and established itself as a format that is here to stay. Those who continue to reject it are showing more stubbornness than Kraigg Brathwaite at the crease. What is there not to like about it? There is a default answer to that question, mumbled as the speaker fiddles with his tie and swirls the ice in his gin and tonic, "it just isn't cricket:"

If one had to choose between the various formats it would be a tough choice. Test cricket is the Daddy, the supreme contest between bat and ball offering five days of intrigue. ODIs have their place although the longer series with dead rubbers quickly lose their appeal. And then we have the shortest format which looks like a fast forwarded ODI with bells and whistles and all the boring bits edited out.

It's a bit of a no-brainer. If one had to choose, Test cricket would be the choice but that's the beauty of it - we don't have to choose because there is room for all the formats. What has to happen is the ICC has to come out of denial and accept that there are three formats that need to be fitted sensibly into the international calendar without the aid of a shoehorn. The days of five Test series and seven match ODIs may have to be consigned to history in order not to saturate the market and water down the quality of the product.

The ICC World Twenty20 takes place in September and the market is beginning to take shape.

There's always value to be had in these major events by starting to build the portfolio early and already Betfairians have managed to match the West Indies at [19.0]. It's safe to say that those that have invested will be hoping that it's Bravo rather than Brathwaite that sets the target run-rate.

More has been writtten and said about Samit Patel's waistline than his bowling action or batting average. This obsession with being an athlete rather than a cricketer is a all a load of nonsense, says Frank Gregan....

England's Test series against Sri Lanka doesn't being until next week and they're already become embroiled in controversy. Frank Gregan discusses an unseemly incident that took place at the weekend......

Andrew Hughes pays tribute to India's record-setting batting genius...

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Manchester United v Fulham: Reds will take their chance

Manchester United / Soccer Widow / 25 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Antonio Valencia - firing on all cylinders

"Fulham's recent record at Old Trafford is abysmal with just one win from the last 12 games there in all competitions. United won the other 11, seven of them by a two-goal-or-more margin."

Soccerwidow studies the stats and finds stand-out value bets as Manchester United bid to steal a march on their title rivals.

It would have been too good to be true for fans of Manchester United if Chelsea had held on at Manchester City in mid-week. But with Stoke putting up an heroic performance on Saturday, the Red Devils can create a three point cushion on Monday night against Fulham.

Fulham's recent record at Old Trafford is abysmal with just one win from the last 12 games played there in all competitions, whilst United have won the other 11, seven of those by a two-goal-or-more margin. Fulham's recent away record in the Premier League is not much more promising, winning just five of their last 25 (20%), and losing on 11 occasions (44%).

Sir Alex Ferguson will hope that his squad comfortably defeats Fulham and makes in-roads into the four goal difference between City and United. Fulham are the league's lowest scorers away from home but will feature Pavel Pogrebnyak up front, who has scored in a victory over United, for former club Zenit St Petersburg in the 2008 European Super Cup match.

The United team will probably be without Nani but this is not an issue with Antonio Valencia fully fit and firing on all cylinders again. United look more balanced whenever he plays and his composure and unselfish approach in front of goal contrasts with Nani, who more often than not looks to shoot on sight, with only moderate results.

Detailed Stats Analysis

Head-to-Head record last 12 games; Manchester United at home, Fulham away (all competitions since 1998-99):

• Full-time: United 11 wins (91.67%); no draws; Fulham one win (8.33%); Last six (most recent first): H-H-H-H-H-H

• Full-time: United winning by two-goals-or-more: seven times (58.3%); Fulham winning by two-goals-or-more: once (8.33%)

• Half-time: United eight wins (66.67%); four draws (33.33%); Fulham no wins (0%)

• Full-time over 2.5 goals eight times (66.67%); full-time over 3.5 goals four times (33.33%)

• Total goals last six meetings (most recent first): 2-3-3-2-6-6

Manchester United's last 25 Premier League home games:
• Full-time: 22 wins (88%); one draw (4%); two defeats (8%); Last six (most recent first): W-W-W-W-L-W

• Full-time: winning by two goals or more: 14 times (63.6% of their 22 wins)

• Half-time: United 16 wins (64%); seven draws (28%); two defeats (8%)

• Full-time over 2.5 goals 15 times (60%); full-time over 3.5 goals nine times (36%)

• Total goals last six home games (most recent first): 2-3-2-3-5-5

Fulham's last 25 Premier League away games:

• Full-time: five wins (20%); nine draws (36%); 11 defeats (44%); Last six (most recent first): L-W-L-L-D-D

• Full-time: winning by two goals or more: four times (80% of their five wins)

• Half-time: Fulham six wins (24%); 10 draws (40%); nine defeats (36%)

• Full-time over 2.5 goals six times (24%); full-time over 3.5 goals twice (8%)

• Total goals last six away games (most recent first): 1-1-3-4-2-2

Summary

Interesting to see how few goals feature in Fulham's away fixtures with 13 out of 25 games (52%) finishing with just two, four matches with only one (16%), plus two 0-0 draws (8%). All told, 76% of their last 25 league games away from home have finished under 2.5 goals.

United have not had a single 0-0, have had only four home matches involving just a single goal (16%), plus six games with a total of two goals (24%). These statistics equate to 40% of their last 25 league home games ending with fewer than 2.5 goals.

Of Fulham's last 25 away fixtures, 92% have ended under 3.5 goals as opposed to 64% of United's last 25 home games.

This is another game where the market has determined the 'draw' odds by taking the league average into consideration rather than head-to-head comparisons. The current lay odds are [6.8], whereas in reality, the 'true' draw odds are [10.0]. Laying the draw is therefore a possibility with only a 10% chance of it occurring. Whether the prudent bettor wishes to 'gamble' with odds this high is another matter.

Value Bet Recommendations:

Back full-time Manchester United to win (odds [1.25] 'true' odds based on head-to-head results since 1998-99 are 1.09; value 277.77%; probability 91.67%)

Back full-time under 3.5 goals (odds [1.60] 'true' odds 1.38; value 56.9%; probability 72.33%)

Because of the very clear prognosis this week, there are hardly any value bets to be found for this match. No matter which formulae are used to compile the probabilities and odds this is one of those exceptional games where all computations lead to the same results and the whole market seems to be in agreement.

So, only two 'value bet' recommendations but herewith a few other ideas which, although highly likely to occur, do not necessarily carry any 'value'.

It is 46% likely that Manchester United will win both halves, with current odds at [2.3]; 93% likely that Fulham will not keep a clean sheet at odds of [1.08]; 57% likely that United will keep a clean sheet at odds of [1.88]

Five-star United [1.49] for the title after destroying new relegation favourites Wolves...

After exiting the Europa League in midweek Manchester United's season has come down to just the league with Wolves the opposition on Sunday. Recent Betting.Betfair signing, the Soccer Widow, analyses the game from her unique perspective, picking up the best...

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Ligue 1: PSG set to continue their match towards the title

French Football / James Eastham / 09 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Nene (centre) has been Ligue 1's outstanding player this season

"Rennes’ home record is a disappointing W4-D5-L1 and Sochaux’s away record is W1-D5-L5. The fact Rennes have won fewer than half their home games and Sochaux have avoided defeat in more than half their away games indicates the hosts’ price should be nearer to evens."

After three successful bets last weekend James Eastham picks out the smartest selections from France's matchday 23.

Nice v PSG (18th v 1st) Sunday, 16:00 GMT

Nice are Ligue 1's poorest attacking side right now. They could have played for hours without scoring against Montpellier (0-1) a fortnight ago, and it was a similar story when they went out of the French Cup on penalties after two goalless hours against Rennes (21 Jan). Last weekend they grabbed a late equaliser at Ajaccio (1-1) but that goal was the result of the sort of defensive error they won't be handed every week.

PSG are so talented they can score freely without even playing well. That's what happened against Evian last weekend (3-1 win) and has occurred many times this season. The individual brilliance of their multi-faceted squad, and in particular Nene, Ligue 1's player of the season so far, is driving the club towards their first title since 1994.

Nice have a solid home record (W4-D4-L3) but the gulf in class between these sides is so great I expected to find PSG (6/10 away wins) odds-on. Take the evens about an away win.

Valenciennes v Nancy (12th v 14th) Saturday, 14:00 GMT

These two sides are among 10 (Ajaccio, Evian, Brest, Caen, Sochaux, Auxerre, Nice and Dijon being the others) facing a relegation dogfight but are two of the best-equipped to stay out of the bottom three. Valenciennes are becoming more clinical in the penalty area, while Nancy's new signings Sebastien Puygrenier (out this weekend) and Yohan Mollo have added vital quality at either end of the pitch. Nancy players have said training has improved in recent weeks, younger team members are making progress and coach Jean Fernandez is one of the wiliest in the business.

Goals are the order of the day. Nancy will be vulnerable without Puygrenier, while Nancy scored three times at Auxerre (3-1) in their last away game and have three outstanding counter-attacking footballers in Mollo, Daniel Niculae and Lossemy Karaboue.

Back Both Teams to Score at [2.06] or Over 2.5 Goals at [2.36].

Rennes v Sochaux (6th v 20th) Saturday, 20:00 GMT

Looking at the league table, you might wonder why bottom-club Sochaux are worth an investment this weekend. But a closer look at the facts reveals Rennes are much too short to win at [1.50].

Rennes' home record is a disappointing W4-D5-L1 and Sochaux's away record is W1-D5-L5. The fact Rennes have won fewer than half their home games and Sochaux have avoided defeat in more than half their away games indicate the hosts' price should be nearer to evens than it is.

Rennes struggle because of their counter-attacking style: against sides that are well-organised and defend in great numbers the Bretons are often frustrated. And Sochaux's recent away performances suggest they are well-equipped to upset the home side: on January 14 they defended excellently before succumbing to a late set-piece at St Etienne (0-1) before gaining a well-deserved point at Lorient (1-1) a fortnight ago.

Consider backing the draw at [4.2], although I prefer the safety net of Sochaux +1.0 on the Asian handicap. This way, you will win if Sochaux win or the game ends in a draw, get your money back if Sochaux lose by a single goal and lose only if Sochaux lose by two goals or more.

Best Bet: PSG to win at Nice @ [2.00].
Other Recommended Bets: Sochaux +1.0 Asian handicap at Rennes @ [2.05]; Valenciennes v Nancy Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.36].

James Eastham has made 43.93pts profit from 302pts staked on Ligue 1 since 2008 (14.5% ROI).

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Bundesliga Betting: Do Bayern Munich offer any value at their current price?

German Football / Matthew Walton / 25 January 2012 / 1 Comments

Robert Lewandowki's goals can keep Dortmund in the title race

"If you want to back Bayern at a short price, fine, but you might have a job convincing this sceptic that the former champions are good value to regain their crown."

Bayern Munich are involved in a four-way tussle for the Bundesliga title but are still the overwhelming favourites at 1.66. What does recent history tell us about that price, asks Matthew Walton.

For backers of Bayern Munich at prices as low as [1.14]... these are worrying times.

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And for Jupp Heynckes's star-studded team, who have previously swept the board with 22 domestic championships, the route to No.23 is proving no stroll up the red carpet.

Bayern's return to the Bundesliga after Germany's mid-season break was welcomed with a 3-1 loss to Borussia Mönchengladbach and that result, along with some worrying pre-Christmas form has made the title race exactly that... a race!

Bayern P18 (W12 D1 L5) are now joint leaders of three on 37 points along with Borussia Dortmund (W11 D4 L3) and Schalke 04 (W12 D1 L5). The resurgent Mönchengladbach (W11 D3 L4) are just a point back with the next team, Werder Bremen, a further six points adrift.

But, many will say, Bayern always come on strong in the second half of the season. They have the money, the players, the experience... more than enough to get the job done.

Well, to a point.

There are five good reasons to question the claims of Die Bayern at their current market price of [1.66].

(i) Germany's most trophied club have only won the Bundesliga title twice in the last five years (2009/10 and 2007/08).

Last season Borussia Dortmund won the league. Jurgen Klopp's side finishing 7 points clear of second-placed Bayer Leverkusen with Bayern, a full 10 points back, just making the tri-cast.

In 2008/09 it was Wolfsburg who beat the Bavarians to the title and back in 2006/07 VFB Stuttgart claimed the title with Bayern, again a full 10 points behind the eventual champions, only coming fourth and ending up in the UEFA Cup/Europa League!

(ii) Bayern's current form isn't the best... W5 D0 L3 of their last eight matches has seen their early season lead disappear, allowing others (like Dortmund W6 D1 L1) to make up ground. Munich need to find their form... and fast!

(iii) 18 games played so far in the Bundesliga. Bayern have played nine at home and nine away, whilst Dortmund have played 10 away but just eight games at home. Slight advantage there to the main challengers. Bayern must also travel to the Westfalenstadion later in the campaign (having already lost at home to Dortmund earlier in the season).

(iv) Champions League activity could also be a distraction as the title race hots up in March/April. Bayern would expect to get past Basle in the R16... which will mean at least four more matches to squeeze into their end of season schedule (even if they go out in the QFs).

(v) and let's not forget, aside of all the above points (added to fatigue, injuries, suspensions etc) that Bayern have still only won the Bundesliga in five of the last 10 years. Odds-on quotes before the season starts (let alone midway) still represent questionable value.

Should we be happy, therefore, to lump on the favourites at a pretty short price?

Dortmund have seven previous national titles to their name, most recently winning the Bundesliga in 2010/11.

They're a very big threat indeed. More so as they possess a very in-form goalscorer...young Polish striker, Robert Lewandowski. With 14 goals in 18 matches he's a highly-rated performer, even by Bayern.

Schalke 04 certainly aren't serial winners (last victorious way back in 1958) but Huub Stevens has a side who have been runners-up three times in the last six seasons. They're not easily discounted as a result.

It's only Borussia Mönchengladbach who lack any recent pedigree (their 1976/77 league win was their last of three consecutive titles in the mid-70's).

But they, along with the other two, make for a chasing pack that has both strength and depth.

If you want to back Bayern at a short price, fine, but you might have a job convincing this sceptic that the former champions are good value to regain their crown. And that's the matter which is in hand... are they value?

The logical play, given the points raised, is to take a 'value' position on their nearest (and biggest) threat, Dortmund, even considering a back-to-lay strategy.

Key Statistic

Bayern only have the sixth best record in the Bundesliga against their nearest rivals (i.e. sides in the top half of the table). Dortmund, Shalke and Mönchengladbach all have better results against the better teams.

Recommended Bets

Back Borussia Dortmund to win the Bundesliga at [3.45]

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Cardiff v Crystal Palace: Hosts to fire their way to the final

Carling Cup / Michael Lintorn / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Kenny Miller has struck ten times since his summer move to Cardiff

"Saturday’s 3-2 defeat of Portsmouth, as well as avenging another memorable cup reverse, sees Cardiff enter this must-win game on a run of eight home victories in nine."

A 1-0 defeat at Selhurst Park leaves Cardiff with it all to do in the second leg of their Carling Cup semi-final, but Michael Lintorn thinks they will deliver...

Cardiff v Crystal Palace, Tuesday 19:45 BST, BBC2, Match odds: Cardiff [1.77], Crystal Palace [5.5], The Draw [3.8]

There aren't many instances in which fickleness can be viewed as an asset but the ability to switch loyalties as frequently, decisively and effectively as Craig Bellamy moves teams is a positive when it comes to betting on Carling Cup semi-finals.

That's why, a mere fortnight after successfully backing Crystal Palace to triumph 1-0 in the first leg of their jostle with Cardiff for a Wembley place, this writer is changing sides and planning a celebratory Ayatollah in expectation of them overhauling the deficit.

One of the reasons for favouring Palace in the initial tie was the frequency of home victories in Carling Cup semi-finals, and they are even more common in second legs. The last six have all been won by the hosts, with five of those - including each of the last four - progressing to the final.

Further cause for backing the Bluebirds both to win at [1.79] and qualify at [2.1] is provided by the way that both have performed since the clash at Selhurst Park, with Cardiff taking four points from two Championship fixtures while Palace gained only one.

It is arguable no doubt that the difference owes much to the Londoners' position in the middle of the table enabling them to focus on the cup, going through the motions in the meantime, whereas their Welsh opponents are battling to sustain a promotion challenge.

However, those results have helped Malky Mackay's men rebuild the momentum that was dwindling slightly ahead of their first-leg loss. Saturday's 3-2 defeat of Portsmouth, as well as avenging another memorable cup reverse, sees them enter this must-win game on a run of eight home victories in nine.

Over/under 2.5 goals

It isn't just the home win rate that is high in Carling Cup semi-final second legs, as each of the last six have produced three goals or more [[2.26]], with half of those producing over 3.5 goals too, a massive [4.5] prospect on this occasion.

Cardiff have scored eight in their last three outings at their Cardiff City Stadium, conceding six in the process. With Dougie Freedman's visitors sure to fancy their chances of an away goal having fired in five of their last seven on the road, both teams to score shouldn't be discounted either at [2.12].

The Bluebirds' last two matches in front of their fans saw them net three times to prevail despite leaking at the other end and it is [17.0] for that trend to be maintained by virtue of a 3-1 success.

Best Bet: Cardiff to qualify @ [2.1]
Other Recommended Bet: Cardiff to win 3-1 @ [17.0]

Cardiff knocked out Crystal Palace on penalties but are far from being favourites on Betfair's Carling Cup winner market, despite being the only team guaranteed a place in the final....

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Lee Dixon: Manchester United to sort their house out at the Villa

Premier League / Lee Dixon / 02 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

Wayne Rooney should feature up front for Manchester United again on Saturday

"Sir Alex will be expecting a reaction from his players and a much-improved performance after what’s happened in the last week or so and I think he’s going to get one. United should win this."

After a tricky week with indifferent results in three different competitions, Manchester United should return to winning ways when they travel to Villa Park, a venue that has proved to be a happy hunting ground in recent years...

It's been a poor week by Manchester United's standards.

I've praised Newcastle's performance at Old Trafford in my preview of their match against Chelsea already. But whichever way you look at it, that was a match United really should have won if they're going to successfully defend their title. The shock Carling Cup defeat to Crystal Palace was a different story of course because only a couple of the players who started that would possibly feature in Sir Alex's strongest XI. It suggests that maybe there isn't as much talent in reserve at Old Trafford as there has been in yesteryear but that's for him to worry about another day. Let's just focus on this Aston Villa match for the time being.

Match Odds

Aston Villa started the season well and were undefeated for a while but even in those early weeks there were very obvious signs of where their problems lay. They can grind out 0-0 and 1-1 draws with the best of them but don't really have another gear to turn to if they go behind. They're solid and resilient but at times perhaps also lack a little ambition. Seven draws from 13 matches backs that theory up.

Villa Park has been a happy hunting ground for Manchester United over the years. Opta tell us that Man Utd have won 11 times at Villa Park in the Premier League and that only at Everton (14 wins) have they come away with three points more often from an opponent's ground.

Sir Alex will be expecting a reaction from his players and a much-improved performance after what's happened in the last week or so and I think he's going to get one. United should win this.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Gabriel Agbonlahor has been in super form this season, scoring goals, creating chances, running at defenders. Darren Bent has just done what Darren Bent does. Five goals from 12 starts without ever putting in a particularly eye-catching performance. But beyond these two there doesn't seem to be much in the way of attacking threats, either from midfield or on the bench. It's in attack that Alex McCleish needs to start looking for new players in the January transfer window.

United have defended better in the league recently whilst not scoring freely themselves so 'unders' looks a good bet at [1.96].

To Score

After adopting a 'horses for courses' approach and playing Wayne Rooney in midfield for a couple of matches last month, Sir Alex restored the former Everton man to his attack on Saturday against Newcastle.

The goals have dried up recently for Rooney but he'll enjoy running at the two Aston Villa centre-backs who have plenty in terms of strength and aerial ability but far less in terms of pace. I fancy Rooney to re-discover his scoring boots on Saturday afternoon.

2 pts Back Manchester United to win @ [1.77]
2pts Back Under 2.5 goals @ [1.96]
1pt Back Wayne Rooney to score @ [2.3]

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Napoli v Juventus: Hosts to raise their game against leaders

Italian Football / Michael Lintorn / 28 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Edinson Cavani scored a hat-trick in his last home game against Juventus

"Napoli have shown throughout the campaign that they are a team for the big occasions and should avoid the disastrous scenario of allowing the unbeaten Bianconeri to pull 12 points clear of them."

Despite their dismal recent domestic form, Michael Lintorn thinks that Napoli are a massive threat to Juventus' unbeaten run...

Napoli v Juventus, Tuesday 19:45 BST, Betfair Live Video, Match odds: Napoli [2.6], Juventus [3.05], The Draw [3.35]

Walter Mazzarri maintains that it is the media rather than him expecting a scudetto challenge from Napoli. However honest that statement is, it will be very difficult for them to mount one if they lose Tuesday's game in hand with leaders Juventus.

The joy of a Champions League win over Manchester City was swiftly replaced by the increasingly familiar feeling of domestic disappointment at Atalanta, where they made four changes to the side and had to salvage a point in injury time.

Yet the Partenopei have shown throughout the campaign that they are a team for the big occasions and should avoid the disastrous scenario of allowing the unbeaten Bianconeri to pull 12 points clear of them, instead perhaps closing the gap to six.

The hosts have won just four of their first 11 Serie A fixtures, but three of those came against the clubs that joined them in the top four last season, with their 2-0 victory over Udinese last month ending their undefeated start.

And as they welcome bottom-of-the-table Lecce to the San Paolo on Saturday, Napoli will surely field their strongest possible XI against Juventus, meaning recalls for tireless right wing back Christian Maggio and unsung hero of the attack Ezequiel Lavezzi.

Juventus share their opponents' appetite for the glamorous encounters and have also seen off both Milan giants, claiming another huge result at the weekend away to Lazio. They weren't at their best in a 1-0 triumph though, and lost 3-0 in Naples in 2010-11.

Over/under 2.5 goals

Alessandro Matri has been a revelation since joining the Old Lady in January, but his team-mates spurned several opportunities in Rome and such wastefulness will prove costly against Napoli, who have kept three clean sheets in four at home.

Four of Antonio Conte's men's first five away matches have featured two goals or fewer, with them netting one or fewer in four instances, so under 2.5 goals has to be fancied at [1.76].

Best Bet: Napoli to win @ [2.6]
Other Recommended Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ [1.76]

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Man Utd Transfers: The verdict on their biggest English buys

Premier League / Michael Lintorn / 27 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Rio Ferdinand has set a high standard for new arrival Phil Jones to match

"There is something incongruous about Carrick’s duel role as a fairly frequent starter for the reigning Premier League champions yet struggle to even make the England squad, where the likes of Scott Parker and Gareth Barry are favoured."

Manchester United's decision to spend in excess of £15 million on both Phil Jones and Ashley Young was a rather significant show of faith, given that the Red Devils have only spent such sums on four English players in the past. How did those guys fare? Michael Lintorn investigates...

Rio Ferdinand
The Red Devils paid around £30 million to sign Ferdinand from Leeds in 2002 after he excelled for England at the 2002 World Cup. While there have been a few rough patches in the nine years since, such as his eight-month ban in 2004 for a missed drug test and his hefty demands when negotiating a new contract a year later, his contribution to their performance in that period, which has included five Premier League titles, cannot be underestimated.
Success of signing: 9/10

Wayne Rooney
Rooney was also purchased after a star showing in an international tournament, netting four times in four games at Euro 2004 to earn a move to Old Trafford for a fee in the region of £27 million. Early on, he played second fiddle to first Ruud van Nistelrooy and then Cristiano Ronaldo, but delivered when anointed the main man in 2009-10. That was the sole campaign in seven though in which he scored 20 in the Premier League and averaged more than a goal every two matches.
Success of signing: 6/10

Michael Carrick
There is something incongruous about Carrick's duel role as a fairly frequent starter for the reigning Premier League champions yet struggle to even make the England squad, as the likes of Scott Parker and Gareth Barry are favoured. However, while his impact if often underappreciated, a record of four titles in five seasons under Sir Alex Ferguson's guidance can't be knocked, and has more than covered the £18.6 million shelled out to take him from Tottenham.
Success of signing: 7/10

Owen Hargreaves
Of the quartet, Hargreaves is the one most will judge the biggest flop, despite being the cheapest at £17 million, having made just 18 top-flight starts in four years prior to his release this summer, but he was integral in his debut campaign. He fired the fantastic free-kick that saw off Arsenal in perhaps the decisive match in arguably the toughest of their 12 Premier League triumphs and shone in their only Champions League win this century, to ensure that he will be remembered fondly by fans.
Success of signing: 5/10

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Brian Meehan and Michael Bell on their Ascot, Haydock, Nottingham and Warwick runners

Trainer Talk / Paul Smith / 07 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Michael Bell's Horseradish land a seventh win? Will you be on if he does?

"I don’t think the ground will be a problem for Ballesteros - he has gone nicely on the grass at home on the few times we have tried him. I think he is one to follow."

The Flat season is in full swing now with a host of good racing across the country. Our two star columnists saddle a number of runners and you can read their exclusive thoughts here.

Brian Meehan
Ascot, Saturday
14:50 1m Handicap
Bea Remembered: She has her first run for us and she is a nice filly who has been working well in the spring. Like most of ours, she should come on for the run and the handicapper doesn't look to have taken any chances with a mark of 95. This should give us a better idea of what we can expect going forward.

15:25, 7f Handicap
Manassas: He's a really solid handicapper who loves these big park courses. He isn't a big horse, but he does seem to enjoy galloping tracks. He has dropped down the weights a bit and usually gives his running in these races - there is a theory that he is best fresh but I am not sure about that. He had a few problems as a young horse but he is over them now and is a lot more durable.

16:00, 5f Maiden
St Barths: He's a nice horse but it is no secret that most of our 2yos improve for a run and I don't think he will be any exception. Whatever he does here, it will be once he is upped to 6f, or even 7f, that he will show us what he can do.

Haydock, Saturday
14:30, 6f Maiden
Ballesteros: This is a very nice colt who has shown up very well on the gallops. He's a sharp type and even allowing for the fact that most of ours need a run, I would think he had to go well here. He's by Tomba but I don't think the ground will be a problem - he has gone nicely on the grass at home on the few times we have tried him. I think he is one to follow.

17:20, 1m2f Handicap
Onyx Of Arabia: He is one who I would want some rain for. They have had a bit of rain and more is forecast, but he definitely doesn't want it too quick. He is a bit of a character and you never quite know what to expect - it depends on his mood.

Nottingham, Saturday
15:30, 6f Listed
Mortitia: I thought she ran a nice race in the Fred Darling on her reappearance and that run should bring her on. We are trying to pick up some Black Type for her and I would think she would give a good account. The drop in trip shouldn't be a problem - this looked like being a weaker event than the 7f Group 3 at Lingfield - and I would be hopeful that she could finish in the frame.

Warwick, Saturday

19:15, 1m2f Maiden
Mia Madonna: I am looking forward to her returning to action and she looks to have a cracking chance here. She was disappointing when she ran at Pontefract last autumn but her earlier form was pretty good and this step up in trip will suit (she is by Motivator). It doesn't look the strongest maiden and she has plenty in her favour.

Michael Bell
Ascot, Saturday
15:25 7f Handicap
Horseradish: He is in very good form ahead of the Victoria Cup and I couldn't be more pleased with his preparation. He has been trained for the race ever since he won at Doncaster at the end of last year and I think a mark of 100 is still within his range.
It probably isn't ideal being drawn on an extreme wing but saying that, I feel that the ground is sometimes better on that part of the track. He is equally effective at 6f or 7f and everything looks in place for a big run.

Warwick, Saturday
19:45, 7f Handicap
Freckenham: She is ideally suited by a turning track and relishes fast ground, so conditions should suit her well. I was a bit frustrated that the handicapper put her up 4lb for winning an ordinary maiden but she has bits of form that give her a chance and the extra furlong shouldn't be a problem around here.

Read the thoughts of Michael Bell on the chances of his horses at Newmarket, Goodwood, Thirsk and Sha Tin....

In his first-ever column on betting.betfair Brian talks us through the merits of his weekend runners at Newmarket and Salisbury....

The St Leger meeting at Doncaster takes centre stage this week and we caught up with Richard Fahey and Michael Jarvis, both of whom have some leading contenders on show....

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Serie A Results: Napoli stopped in their tracks

Italian Football / Ben Lyttleton / 18 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Gokhan Inler opened the scoring for Udinese against Napoli and there are rumours he may be heading south to play for Sunday night's opponents

"The ramifications of the result were huge at the top of the table. Milan,
six points clear with five games left, surely cannot slip up now, while
Napoli will bemoan a record against the four teams around them which reads
six defeats in seven games."

After this weekend's action we're closer to knowing who will be winning the major European leagues and that includes Serie A, after Napoli lost at home to Udinese. It's now AC Milan's to lose, says Ben Lyttleton.

This was the weekend that the chasing pack faltered: in England, Arsenalv dropped points to Liverpool; in Spain, Real Madrid did the same, albeit to champions-elect Barcelona; it was the same story in Germany, where second-placed Bayer Leverkusen were thrashed 5-1 by Bayern Munich, which as good as confirms Borussia Dortmund as champions.

When Inter lost 2-0 to Parma on Saturday night, the Scudetto turned into a two-horse race, the advantage with leaders AC Milan after their 3-0 win over Sampdoria. Napoli remained their biggest threat, and faced out-of-form Udinese needing a win to reduce the gap to three points.

Francesco Guidolin has performed miracles at the Fruili club, but Udinese went into the game having just lost to Lecce and Roma and were without top scorer Antonio di Natale and playmaker Alexis Sanchez, who between them had scored 38 of their 57 league goals for the season. They also lost Mauricio Isla, their outstanding wide-player, though injury in the first half ­ but still they recovered to beat the title-chasers 2-1, goals from Gokhan Inler and centre-forward German Denis (formerly of Napoli) rendering Giuseppe Mascara's late consolation in vain. Before Mascara struck, Edinson Cavani had his late penalty stopped by Samir Handanovic, the Slovenian's fifth stop of the season.

The ramifications of the result were huge at the top of the table. Milan, six points clear with five games left, surely cannot slip up now, while Napoli will bemoan a record against the four teams around them which reads six defeats in seven games.

Udinese are now back in the hunt for a Champions League place, one point behind fourth-placed Lazio. Di Natale has helped Udinese reach the Champions League before (he scored a hat-trick against Werder Bremen which he rates as the highlight of his career) and to do so again would reward his side for a thrilling season.

Udinese have been Italy's grand entertainers, particularly since the turn of the year where their scores have included a 4-2 win over Genoa, a 3-1 win over Inter, a 4-4 draw with Milan and a 7-0 win at Palermo. As betting.betfair.com's Italian specialist Dave Farrar advises, Udinese are always worth backing in the Over-Goals market away from home, where their counter-attacking game is better suited.

The concern that would follow any European qualification would be how many players they can hold on to for next season. Inler looks set for Napoli (reportedly, that's why he didn't celebrate his goal) while Sanchez is a target for Europe's big boys: Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea and Barcelona have all been linked. Isla is another hot property, as are Handanovic and defender Mehdi Benatia. Though Sanchez has claimed otherwise, Udinese's summer recruitment plans will depend on where they finish: they are [1.71] to finish fourth, with Lazio [1.64].

The other market affected by the game was the one for Top Scorer: Di Natale, on 26 goals, is currently [1.73] favourite with Cavani, one goal behind, on [2.28]. The Uruguayan had scored six in his last three before the botched spot-kick, while Di Natale has eight in his last six.

It's not all over in the rest of Europe, though: in France, though Lyon lost to Paris Saint-Germain to end their hopes, leaders Lille could only draw with Bordeaux, so Marseille closed the gap to one point with a 2-1 win over Montpellier. Marseille are [2.2] with Lille, who are beginning to wobble, [1.8].

The closest battle remains is in Holland, where one point separates the top three teams. That's after leaders (and reigning champions) Twente could only draw with De Graafschap, while PSV Eindhoven moved top after beating Heracles 2-0. The biggest surprise is that Ajax are still in the hunt: they came from behind to beat NEC 2-1 and are one point behind the joint-leaders, but having won five of their last six, have the momentum. With three games left to play, PSV are [1.71] to clinch the Eredivisie, with Twente [3.65] and Ajax [3.05].

Inter are all but out of this title race in the eyes of Dave Farrar and it's left to AC Milan and Napoli to fight to the bitter death. They should both win pretty comfortably this weekend......

Two wounded sides face off at the Friuli but will we see the flurry of goals that some expect? Meanwhile, Dave Farrar believes Cesena may be worth a small investment to upset chaotic Palermo......

Dave Farrar looks ahead to the Milan derby where Inter look the bet and Udinese's away trip to Lecce. And you all know what that means....

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Bundesliga Betting: Take on Bayern whilst their mind is elsewhere

German Football / Kevin Hatchard / 11 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Louis van Gaal won't be at Bayern next season after his side suffered three consecutive defeats

"Bayern have lost their last two home games, and will have one eye on the forthcoming Champions League clash with Inter. Back Hamburg to nick a draw at 4.4."

Louis van Gaal won't be at Bayern next year buit he'll stay till the end of the season. With this news and a Champions League tie in midweek, they may struggle to get more than a point at home to Hamburg at the weekend, says Kevin Hatchard.

Kaiserslautern [2.24] vs Freiburg [3.55], the draw [3.55]

Momentum is a crucial thing to have at this stage of the season, and Kaiserslautern simply don't have it. Marco Kurz's strugglers haven't won since the winter break, and suffered an embarrassing defeat at second-division Duisburg in the German Cup quarter-finals.

A microcosm of Kaiserslautern's struggles is the decline of star striker Srdjan Lakic. The Croatian scored 11 goals in the first half of the campaign, but hasn't netted since. He was booed by his own fans at the last home game against Hamburg, and missed an absolute sitter in last week's stalemate at Eintracht Frakfurt. The announcement of his summer switch to Wolfsburg seems to have unsettled him, and he looks like he can't wait to leave.

Kaiserlautern are second-bottom, and haven't won a home game since late November. They've drawn six out of 12 at home, including four of the last five.

Eighth-placed Freiburg have defied their critics and stayed clear of the relegation dogfight, but their recent form has damaged their Europa League qualification bid. The men from the Black Forest have won just twice since Christmas, and have lost three of their last four.

Highly-rated coach Robin Dutt has tightened Freiburg's defence - last term they conceded 1.74 goals per game, this season the average is 1.36. In attack the Breisgau-Brasilianer are still too reliant on top scorer Papiss Demba Cisse. The Senegalese hitman has netted 17 of Freiburg's 32 league goals, and no-one else in the squad has managed more than four goals.

RECOMMENDED BETS: Kaiserslautern are struggling to turn draws into wins, and I expect that to continue on Saturday. Back the draw at [3.55]

Wolfsburg [2.24] vs Nurnberg [3.4], the draw [3.7]

Whether they like it or not, 2009 champions Wolfsburg are in a relegation battle. The Wolves have lost five of their last six league games, and their only win was against rock-bottom Borussia Monchengladbach.

Last week's 3-0 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen was expected, but the manner of it was alarming. The Wolves defended dreadfully, and out-of-form keeper Diego Benaglio went down like Steptoe for the first two goals.

Wolfsburg's record against Saturday's opponents Nurnberg is poor. Nurnberg have won three of their last four meetings, and Wolfsburg have only beaten them three times in 17 top-flight matches.

Nurnberg are sixth after winning five of their last six games. Last week they hammered St Pauli 5-0, with Christian Eigler scoring four goals. On-loan Bayern playmaker Mehmet Ekici has played a starring role, and the team will be further strengthened by the return from injury of midfielder Ilkay Gundogan.

RECOMMENDED BET: Nurnberg are playing superbly, and Wolfsburg are on a bad run. Back Nurnberg to win at [3.4]

Bayern Munich [1.57] vs Hamburg [6.8], the draw [4.4]

Football fashionistas take note - the caretaker manager is out, and the "delayed departure" is in. Bayern Munich reacted to three consecutive defeats by giving coach Louis van Gaal the push, but he'll stay on until the end of the season. Winning the Champions League is still a viable target for the Bavarians, but they'll have to play far better than they did in last week's 3-1 defeat at Hannover. Bayern defended appallingly and rookie keeper Thomas Kraft had a nightmare, allowing a Sergio Pinto drive to slip through his hands.

Bayern are fifth, five points outside the top three, and on Saturday they'll face a Hamburg side that will also change coaches in the summer. Armin Veh has experienced similar problems to those he had at Wolfsburg, failing to harness a talented but headstrong squad. Hamburg are seventh, five points adrift of European qualification, but Veh's departure is as much to do with the club's off-field problems. President Bernd Hoffman has been given a vote of no confidence, amidst rumours of infighting within HSV's board.

Hamburg's away form has been decent in recent weeks - they've won three of their last five road trips, and their only defeat in that period was at a Nurnberg side who are very strong at home.

RECOMMENDED BET: Bayern have lost their last two home games, and will have one eye on the forthcoming Champions League clash with Inter. Back Hamburg to nick a draw at [4.4]

Louis van Gaal won't be at Bayern next year buit he'll stay till the end of the season. With this news and a Champions League tie in midweek, they may struggle to get more than a point at home to...

Bayern are on a miserable run and their coach is under pressure, so can they overcome Hannover? Meanwhile, can Frankfurt score their first goal of 2011? Kevin Hatchard selects the best bets from the Bundesliga....

Jurgen Klopp wants to take the German champions-elect to the very top. But can he hold on to his talented youngsters? Ben Lyttleton reports....

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Weekend Preview: Grand National hopefuls test their credentials

Weekend Preview/Review / Timeform / 04 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Donald McCain: Runs Grand National hopeful Ballabriggs at Kelso

"Ballabriggs, who is prominent in the market for the Grand National, takes his chance in the Premier Chase instead of the aforementioned Grimthorpe at Doncaster."

Timeform look ahead to the weekend's action at Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury...

With just over a week to go until the Cheltenham Festival, quality jumps cards can be few and far between. However, this weekend we are treated to not one, but three competitive handicap chases at Kelso, Doncaster and Newbury, all of which contain horses targeting the Grand National .

The pick of Saturday's action has to be the Grimthorpe Handicap Chase at Doncaster in which Irish raider and Grand National possible Killyglen heads the weights. Killyglen was second in the race last year for Howard Johnson and whilst not having yet replicated that form for current connections, must be respected as he competes off a 2lb lower mark than last year. Killyglen will face stiff competition from the likes of Always Right, Presenting Forever and Ogee, as well as National hopefuls and old favourite's Merigo and Character Building.

Always Right created a good impression when winning easily last time and the trip and ground conditions should pose no problems for the improving gelding. Ogee has long had the talent required to win a contest such as this and his third to Chief Dan George at the Cheltenham Festival reads well in the context of this race, though he is often let down by his jumping. Presenting Forever looks one of the better handicapped for all that he carries 11-11 and a reproduction of his run last time (beaten a neck by Midnight Chase) could see the bold-jumping front runner hard to peg back. Last year's Scottish National winner Merigo is taking in this race enroute to a possible run in the 'big one' in April, whilst Character Building has been given a chance by the handicapper but must prove he retains the ability that saw him win the Kim Muir at Cheltenham in 2009.

Kelso provides us with two races of note in the Premier Chase and the Grade 2 Premier Kelso Hurdle.

Ballabriggs, who is prominent in the market for the Grand National, takes his chance in the Premier Chase instead of the aforementioned Grimthorpe at Doncaster. Having won both his starts novice hurdles this season since victory at last year's Cheltenham Festival, this appears to be Ballabriggs final prep race prior to taking his chance at Aintree. The main dangers to the likely short priced favourite appear to be Chief Dan George, himself a previous winner at the Cheltenham and Skippers Brig who ran better than his finishing position suggested on his return from a 12 month absence at Leopardstown, prior to winning a three mile handicap hurdle on his latest start.

The Grade 2 Kelso Hurdle sees the younger brigade get a chance to show what they're made of and this race includes plenty of promising types. The Alistair Whillans-trained Storm Brig bids to complete a seasonal hat trick in style in this event and should be open to further improvement now stepped up slightly in trip. Desert Cry was an impressive winner on heavy ground at Sedgefield last time and both Bold Sir Brian and Priceless Art are both open to further improvement, too.

At Newbury the Greatwood Gold Cup takes centre stage. The weights are headed by four horses including former Irish Grand National winner and Hennesy fifth, Niche Market. This will be the Paul Nicholls trained gelding's first outing since undergoing a breathing operation and he again is likely to head to the Grand National after this. One expected to run well is the Martin Keighley-trained Ikorodu Road. The stable are in a rich vein of form at the moment and this useful chaser, who is yet to win over fences, is fancied to run a very big race. Big Fella Thanks also takes in this race prior to a Grand National tilt. Last year's winner was a credible fourth to Riverside Theatre in a Grade 1 last time out has to be respected on his repeat bid. Fine Parchment who has relished being dropped back in trip of late catches the eye at the bottom of the handicap, as does Maktu who was sent off favourite for the Welsh National earlier in the season and drops back in trip having faltered over further of late.

Get the Timeform Jury selections for all of Saturday's Channel 4 races with Timeform TV Focus. Click HERE to find out more.

Timeform look ahead to the weekend's action at Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury......

Timeform takes a look back at the best action from the weekend, where ever-softening conditions gave us some astonishing performances....

With four Graded races at Kempton, and a stamina-sapping Eider at Newcastle, Timeform runs the rule over the weekend's likely contenders....

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