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March 31, 2012

Serie A Previews: Parma and Lazio to end all square

/ Dave Farrar / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Edy Reja deserves more recognition for his achievements as Lazio boss

"Lazio haven’t drawn a game since the 21st December, but this even match could produce just that outcome."

Dave Farrar previews this weekend's Serie A action and believes Parma and Lazio will share the spoils, whilst there'll be plenty of goals in Siena to make the 'Overs' bet a decent-price winner.

Parma v Lazio

When these two teams met here on Valentine's Day 2010, Edy Reja was starting his Lazio managerial career after the sacking of the maverick Davide Ballardini. For all of his occasionally difficult relationship with the board at the Olimpico, Reja has done a pretty remarkable job, and his efforts in steering Lazio to third place in the league aren't attracting the credit that they deserve.

Francesco Guidolin will win many awards, but maybe it's Reja who deserves them. Reja's big problem this time at the Tardini is the absence of Miroslav Klose. It's not just the German's 12 goals that have made him key to the team, but the impact that he has on Lazio's all round play. He holds the ball up for energetic runners, and his five match injury absence really couldn't have come at a worse time.

It seems that the line will be led by the veteran Tommaso Rocchi and the low impact new signing Emiliano Alfaro, and even though Parma have been leaky at the back this season, they'll feel that they can keep out a team that needed a late winner to beat Cagliari last week and failed to score against Catania the week before.

Recent history is against Parma, who haven't beaten Lazio here since 2004, but they're priced at [2.68] to get the win here, with Lazio at [3.1] . That seems short enough, as I'm unconvinced by Roberto Donadoni and Parma's struggles in front of goal mean that they're by no means certain to find a way through what might look like a defensive Lazio.

Reja knows that, with games against Napoli and Juventus to come, they could do with three points here to give their end of season push some momentum, but I think that he and Donadoni are likely to be disappointed. Lazio haven't drawn a game since the 21st December, but this even match could produce just that outcome.

Recommendation: Back Draw in Parma v Lazio @ [3.2]

Siena v Udinese

This is one of those odd Serie A fixtures. There's no overwhelming reason why games between Siena and Udinese should produce goals, but since Udinese won 2-0 at the Friuli in 2007 there have been 18 goals in the six matches involving these teams.

If you believe in the theory of reversion to the mean, then you'll be keen to take a look at Under 2.5 Goals which is available at [1.66]. 'Overs' are [2.34], and that seems a little big given the likely nature of the game that we'll see.

Udinese were awful in Palermo last week, but they did well to salvage a point late on, and I think that we'll see the approach that led to that equaliser from the start in Tuscany. Francesco Guidolin's team will play at a high tempo, and Antonio Di Natale will enjoy the space that Siena are likely to give him. He has scored six career goals against them, and could add to that here.

Sice the league resumed in January, five of Udinese's eight away games have featured at least three goals, while four of Siena's seven have done likewise. That makes [2.34] a price that I'm happy to take, and I certainly wouldn't put you off the [2.88] that's available for an Udinese win. They are too good a side, and Guidolin too astute a coach, to simply let their season fizzle out. Over 2.5 Goals though, is the bet.

Recommendation: Back Over 2.5 goals in Siena v Udinese @ [2.34]

Elsewhere this weekend, it will be interesting to see how the top two cope with awkward looking fixtures.

Milan are [1.39] to win the title with Juventus [3.55], and one thing I expect to continue developing is the dominance that both of these teams are showing over the rest of the division.

Juve are at home to Napoli, and I expect them to take advantage of their recent resurgence and put the southerners away at [1.88] while Milan go to Catania, who are performing so well for Vincenzo Montella. Milan are [2.18] to win, and I think that they're a little overpriced.

Too much is being made of Catania's good recent run: they're good, but not in the same league as Milan. Juve and Milan will be worth supporting over coming weeks, but I still feel that the Rossoneri will do just enough to hang onto the title.

Will the promotion of youth-team coach Andrea Stramaccioni prompt a change of outlook at Inter, or will he too be swiftly discarded at the first signs of trouble? Michael Lintorn considers......

Given Inter's struggles this season, the Derby D'Italia may be less competitive than usual. In fact, Juventus may well trample all over their old rivals. Particularly if the enigmatic Mirko Vucinic 'shows up', says Dave Farrar....

Napoli entertain Siena this evening in the semi-finals of the Coppa Italia, hoping to overturn a 2-1 deficit from the first leg......

March 3, 2012

Serie A Betting: No reason why Catania can't go and stun Inter

Recommendation Roma v Lazio draw @ [3.4]

/ Dave Farrar / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Claudio Ranieri's early honeymoon period at Inter has come to an end and Wesley Sneijder may move on as well if Inter's fortunes don't improve

"They were dreadful in Naples, and the big problem from week to week with Claudio Ranieri’s side is that they don’t seem to have any set pattern of play. Players seem unsure, the ball is moved too slowly, and they are vulnerable on the counter attack."

The Rome derby is the biggest match of the weekend in terms of Media interest and there's a decent bet there but the better bet may lie with Catana's trip to Inter Milan. Claudio Ranieri's days are already numbered and the vistors could deliver the killer blow.

Roma v Lazio

It's hard to know what to make of Roma under Luis Enrique. There are times when you watch them and feel that the young Spanish coach really has something, when they play with tempo and energy and look capable of overwhelming even the best sides.

And yet there are other occasions, last week's capitulation against Atalanta for example, when the players look as if they're meeting for the first time. Daniele De Rossi absence through indiscipline was a huge factor in last week's defeat, and his presence in the centre of the midfield is always key for Roma.

He's back for this weekend's derby, and Roma are [2.28] to see off a Lazio side which has struggled both on and off the field in the last few weeks. Edy Reja is still in charge despite offering an angry resignation and has a terrible injury list to deal with.

Lazio's tiredness and evident lack of team spirit has been a reason to oppose them in recent weeks, and that proved profitable until they managed a 1-0 win against Fiorentina last time out.

That was a solid performance, and makes me swerve Roma for the derby. I'm not suggesting that Lazio are a bet at [3.75], but I do feel that they have enough about them to avoid defeat against a team as unpredictable as Roma. That makes the draw a decent, if small stakes, bet for the game of the weekend, with Roma too short and Lazio more than capable of frustrating them.

Lecce v Genoa

Every Serie A fan's favourite lunatic, Serse Cosmi, is in the process of doing an extraordinary job at Lecce.

Two wins in a row have taken them to within two points of safety, and for a team which looked relegated at Christmas, there is suddenly hope. Cosmi may not be Arrigo Sacchi in terms of his tactical astuteness, but what he has always had is the ability to motivate players, and make them absolutely sure of the job that he expects them to do.

This has worked well at the Via Del Mare, and now Lecce face a Genoa team which looks shorn of confidence, and whose awful defensive record gives Lecce a chance of making it three wins in a row.

Genoa have conceded more goals than any other team in Serie A this season, quite an achievement when you consider the presence of teams like Novara in the division, and in their last five away games, they have shipped 19 goals. That makes them vulnerable to the likes of Juan Cuadrado and Luis Muriel, and the way that this game is likely to be set up tactically means that goals seem certain. Lecce are no great shakes defensively either, and these two could serve up an open and entertaining game. Over 3.5 goals in attractively priced at [3.5], and I'm happy to take a view that the Via Del Mare may be the place to be on Sunday afternoon.

Recommendation Back Over 3.5 goals in Lecce v Genoa @ [3.5]

Inter v Catania

Inter's woes continued with a fourth consecutive defeat last weekend at Napoli, and this Sunday night they face an in-form Catania team, hoping to add themselves to the names of Novara and Bologna as recent improbable winners at the San Siro.

Catania are [5.5] to get the three points, with Inter trading at [1.76], and I just can't see any justification to make Inter odds-on.

They were dreadful in Naples, and the big problem from week to week with Claudio Ranieri's side is that they don't seem to have any set pattern of play. Players seem unsure, the ball is moved too slowly, and they are vulnerable on the counter attack.

Catania have won three of their last four, and the vibrant way that they play will put Inter under severe pressure. Inter have failed to score in their last five matches, and even though Ranieri has been assured that his job is safe no matter what the outcome on Sunday, I'm not sure that he'll be able to survive another humiliation. You can argue that Catania had to wait until last weekend to get their first win away from home, but I see that result as a positive, and while a lay of Inter is tempting, there's no reason not to take a big price about Catania coming good.

Recommendation Back Catania to beat Inter @ [5.5]

Michael Lintorn takes an early look at Sunday's Rome derby, which could have a major impact on the battle for Italy's final Champions League place......

Seven defeats in eight have made it clear that Inter are in desperate need of rebuilding both on and off-the-field......

The top two clubs in Serie A go head-to-head on Saturday night and Dave Farrar is surprised to see Juventus so generously priced for the win....

February 27, 2012

Serie A Betting: Disjointed Inter surely set for a hectic summer

/ Michael Lintorn / 27 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Wesley Sneijder is Inter's biggest star, yet they fare better without him

"It will be this summer’s appointment that decides if the rot stops, and only if whoever is hired is allowed a greater input in transfer policy, which has been a shambles post-Mourinho."

Seven defeats in eight have made it clear that Inter are in desperate need of rebuilding both on and off-the-field...

According to popular football parlance, a month is a long time in football, but if that's the case then it has to be considered an absolute eternity at Inter.

In late January, Claudio Ranieri was a hero and a scudetto push was expected. Five weeks on, they are seventh, nine points off the Champions League places, staring at a first silverware-free season since 2003-04 and talk has turned to who will be their fifth coach since Jose Mourinho left in 2010.

It is tough to gauge how much blame should be handed to Ranieri, far from the first to struggle with this squad and the mastermind of their finest winning streak since Mourinho's exit. However, seven losses in eight is difficult to survive at any level, let alone in Italy with Massimo Moratti as your boss.

His failure to find a solution to the problem posed by Wesley Sneijder's return has proven disastrous, and has led to the staggering statistic that Inter have taken only 12 points from 13 games with the playmaker, compared to 24 in the 12 that he missed.

This writer would have been tempted to keep him on the bench, letting Ranieri maintain the 4-4-2 that was working well, then switch to either 4-4-1-1 or 4-3-1-2 mid-match depending on if they were chasing or seeing things out.

Perhaps this idea is unrealistic, as a coach will get far more stick losing while ignoring his star man, but the alternative strategy, constantly altering formations and personnel in search of a winning formula, has gone just as badly. In Sunday's 1-0 defeat to Napoli, they even ended up with the three at the back that saw Gian Piero Gasperini hounded out in September.

Ranieri won't resign and it is unclear whether he will be axed now or given a chance to overturn the 1-0 first-leg deficit in their Champions League round-of-16 tie with Marseille. That's a [3.0] prospect and quite the challenge for a team who have fired seven blanks in their last eight fixtures.

Any change this term will likely be temporary, with a figurehead like Giuseppe Baresi, Luis Figo or Roberto Baggio stepping in. It will be this summer's appointment that decides if the rot stops, and only if whoever is hired is allowed a greater input in transfer policy, which has been a shambles post-Mourinho.

Assuming the endless Pep Guardiola gossip is as fanciful as it appears, Zenit St Petersburg's Luciano Spalletti looks the best candidate. He might not even want it, though it will be the end of the Russian season then too and - if he finishes first again [[1.46]] - it may feel like the right time to head home.

The top two clubs in Serie A go head-to-head on Saturday night and Dave Farrar is surprised to see Juventus so generously priced for the win....

Unsurprisingly, AC Milan's attempt to get Zlatan Ibrahimovic's ban cut so that he could face former club Juventus has failed, enhancing the Old Lady's chances in the fight for first......

Before Real Madrid fans get too excited about the prospect of Jose Mourinho's possible departure, they should look at the current state of the two clubs he managed previously. Inter Milan in particular, are in a whole world of trouble,...

February 1, 2012

Serie A Betting: Tricky travelling tests for Juventus and AC Milan

/ Michael Lintorn / 30 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Antonio Conte aims to become the third visiting coach to leave Parma's Stadio Tardini with three points

"Parma have lost just once in eight and none of their last six Serie A home games."

Italy's top two Juventus and AC Milan will both see potential for their rivals to slip up in midweek, with Lazio and Inter among those hoping to take advantage...

Parma v Juventus, Tuesday 19:45, Betfair Live Video, Match odds: Parma [5.7], Juventus [1.8], The Draw [3.65]

Juventus coach Antonio Conte has labelled AC Milan "super favourites" for the scudetto, yet though both this writer and the Betfair market put the holders on top at [1.98], it looks increasingly likely that this will be the Old Lady's strongest challenge since Calciopoli.

A 2-1 triumph over Udinese on Saturday saw them maintain their one-point lead and superb record against fellow contenders, but this is a fourth match in 11 days, a marathon stint for a side whose success owes plenty to only playing once a week while all their rivals have been in Europe.

Parma have lost just once in eight and none of their last six Serie A home games. They frequently prove a bogey club for the table-toppers too, winning three of their last four meetings, so have a fair chance of frustrating the unbeaten Bianconeri.

Best Bet: Lay Juventus @ [1.81]

Inter v Palermo, Wednesday 19:45, Betfair Live Video, Match odds: Inter [1.5], Palermo [8.6], The Draw [4.3]

One of the main problems during Gian Piero Gasperini's brief spell in charge of Inter was that his system didn't accommodate prize asset Wesley Sneijder, and Claudio Ranieri - for all the good that he has done - faces a similar headache.

Their recent eight-match winning streak was achieved with a 4-4-2, however Sneijder's return to full fitness led Ranieri to reintroduce him in a 4-3-1-2 at Lecce on Sunday. The experiment couldn't have backfired more, the playmaker making way at half-time in a 1-0 defeat that marked their struggling hosts' first home victory of the season.

This isn't an easy encounter in which to resolve that issue, especially as Palermo have finally found form under Bortolo Mutti, aided by seven goals in two games. The reverse fixture ended 4-3 to the Rosanero in Sicily and both sides have scored in each of their last seven clashes with one another.

Best Bet: Both teams to score @ [1.95]

Lazio v AC Milan, Wednesday 19:45, Betfair Live Video, Match odds: Lazio [3.4], AC Milan [2.4], The Draw [3.35]

This will be the second time that these two teams collide in seven days, after AC Milan knocked Lazio out of the Coppa Italia at the San Siro last Thursday.

The champions were ultimately worthy 3-1 winners but Lazio started strongly and fired first, just as they did in the opening fixture of the campaign against them in September, and ten goals in five games shows that they have enough going forward to frighten the Rossoneri.

AC Milan don't lack in that department either though, with Zlatan Ibrahimovic the best player in the world not named Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo right now, and with a far less stellar supporting cast too. The Swede has scored 12 in his last 11 appearances, rendering Adriano Galliani's obsession with signing Carlos Tevez all the more bewildering.

Best Bet: Back Lazio to score first @ [2.42]

Dave Farrar foresees a good weekend for aiming high in the over/under markets in Italy, spotting big prices in Inter and Palermo's games, and tells us all about the latest dance trend gripping European football......

Coppa Italia quarter-final week features three north-versus-south showdowns between top-seven sides, spread over three days. Michael Lintorn ponders each of them......

With sharp attacks and dodgy defences on display, Bolgna and Parma should produce more than three goals, says Dave Farrar. Meanwhile, a new signing can freshen up Juventus as they aim for three points on the road......

December 3, 2011

Serie A Previews: Parma's strong home form set to continue

Italian Football

/ Dave Farrar / 02 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

Parma’s attacking midfielder Sebastian Giovinco

"I fully expect Franco Colomba’s team (Parma) to turn four home wins from six into five from seven."

After a disappointing loss in the Coppa Italia last week, Parma need to get back to winning ways in Serie A as soon as possible, and Dave Farrar believes Sunday night is the perfect time to start.

Parma v Palermo, KO: Sunday 19:45, live on ESPN, Match Odds: Parma [2.18], Palermo [4.2], The Draw [3.2]

Given the strong side that they put out against Serie B Verona last week, Parma were clearly keen to have a go at winning this season's Coppa Italia. A shock defeat meant that the focus for the rest of the season at the Ennio Tardini will be on finishing as high in the league table as they can.

Parma are [2.18] to get back to winning ways on Sunday against Palermo, and I think that rates as a bit of value. Palermo are strong at the Renzo Barbera, but dreadful on the road. They're yet to score a goal away from home, and while Parma's oddly leaky defence will give Devis Mangia's team a chance of netting, the home side should be too strong.

Sebastian Giovinco is the key man for Parma: the OPTA statistics show that he has been involved in nine of the fifteen goals that his team have chalked up, scoring seven and providing two assists. With Palermo likely to set up defensively, he will have to find a way to get into space, but the former Juventus man is adept at doing that and I expect him to hurt Palermo. The Rosanero have, after all, conceded 31 goals in their last 16 away games. I fully expect Franco Colomba's team to turn four home wins from six into five from seven.

Recommendation: Back Parma to beat Palermo at [2.18]

Fiorentina v Roma, KO: Sunday 14:00, Match Odds: Fiorentina [2.44], Roma [3.4], The Draw [3.3]

Delio Rossi is still looking for his first win since he took over at Fiorentina, and as an ex Lazio man, I'm sure that he'd be delighted if it arrived against Roma. Rossi had a good record against the city rivals on the Lazio bench, winning three derbies, but he may struggle to inspire this average La Viola team to hit those sort of heights.

Discipline would appear to be a problem at Fiorentina, with Alessio Cerci and Andrea Lazzari fined for staying out too late after last week's Coppa Italia win, and with the former Roma player Cerci likely to be left out of the side against his old club, Fiorentina could be struggling for any kind of creativity. It's now three games in a row in which Fiorentina have failed to score, and it's shocking that a team with their tradition should be one of the least productive teams in Serie A. Only Lecce and Cesena have scored fewer goals.

Roma are no great shakes either - recent victories over some of the lower lights in the division have papered over the cracks, but the fact remains that this Roma team doesn't pass the ball at pace and lacks incision.

The draw at [3.4] looks tempting, but I'll go a little further than that and take the risk that Roma will fail to get on the scoresheet for just the third time in their last twenty one away games. The [9.2] which is available about the game finishing 0-0 looks too big, as does the [2.8] about the game being goalless at half time. We should take advantage of both prices.

Recommendation Back 0-0 Correct Score @ [9.2]
Back 0-0 Half Time Score @ [2.8]

Finally, a word on what looks like a tempting treble this weekend. Juventus are [1.29] to beat Cesena at home, Lazio are [1.4] to beat Novara, and Napoli [1.4] to prove too good for Lecce.

This might look like a steal (as a couple of people have already told me this week) but I'd be careful: Napoli have an awful record in their matches immediately before a Champions League game, Juventus looked out on their feet after that classic against Napoli, and a strong Lazio team couldn't win at Vaslui in the Europa League on Thursday night. I think that one of the legs of this "certainty" looks like it might fail, and I'll continue my policy of avoiding bets like this.

Despite their dismal recent domestic form, Michael Lintorn thinks that Napoli are a massive threat to Juventus' unbeaten run......

Even with Antonio Cassano likely to miss much of the remainder of the season, AC Milan should not be considering a move for Carlos Tevez, argues Michael Lintorn......

With Napoli set to face Manchester City in midweek in a huge Champions League fixture, Dave Farrar believes Lazio, and their excellent away form, can take full advantage....

April 30, 2011

Serie A Betting: Don't underestimate teams with little to play for

Italian Football

/ Dave Farrar / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Palermo boss Delio Rossi

"Parma may have improved lately, but they’re still not as good a side as Palermo, and I’ll certainly be laying Parma at what is a ridiculously short price."

In years gone by a club that needed to win against a club that had nothing to play for meant just one outcome, but perhaps not anymore says Dave Farrar.

Parma v Palermo

A few weeks ago, Parma's fans were getting used to the fact that they'd be supporting a Serie B side again next season, but in the last two weeks the team has dredged up a couple of remarkable performances to beat both Inter at home and then Udinese away, and now Parma find themselves three points above the drop zone with others fading fast. The job isn't done yet, though, and another resurgent team in the shape of Palermo will provide stern opposition on Sunday.

Parma are [2.02] to win, and it's easy to see why that price is as short as it is; the home team have it all to play for, the away team are safely in the top 10, and so, as the Serie A way goes, Parma will be gifted the win. We'd do well to remember that, at the start of the month, Parma welcomed a Bari team here which had pretty much already been relegated. It was a marriage of convenience if ever there was one but Bari won 2-1 and the cynics had discovered that the ground had moved beneath them. And trust me, if this match is to be a fix in favour of the home team, then Parma would be [1.3] to win, not [2.02].

Parma may have improved lately, but they're still not as good a side as Palermo, and I'll certainly be laying Parma at what is a ridiculously short price. Despite their relatively static position in the table, Palermo's players have good reason to be motivated. The club's maverick President, Maurizio Zamparini, has said that Delio Rossi will be in a job next season, but given the respect that the players have for Rossi, and the trigger happy nature of Zamparini's stewardship so far, they'll want to make sure that they finish as high up the table as possible and give Zamparini no cause whatsoever to sack Rossi for a second time in the calendar year.

I'm tempted by the [4.6] about a Palermo win, and those of you who like to split your stakes and lay one team while backing the other should take advantage of that price. I'm not getting greedy though, and will lay a Parma team for whom a draw wouldn't be a disaster.

Recommendation: Lay Parma against Palermo @ [2.02]

Fiorentina v Udinese

Another team with absolutely everything to gain from a victory, Udinese, travel to Florence, and the men from the Friuli are being priced up far shorter than an away side would normally be for a trip like this. The reason for that, of course, is once again the perception that Fiorentina aren't at all bothered about winning, while Udinese are desperate to. That's why we're able to back Fiorentina at [2.6] and that's well worth doing.

Udinese will very possibly have to do without their three best players on Sunday; Gokhan Inler is definitely out through suspension, Alexis Sanchez has probably played his last game for the club after picking up a muscle injury, and Antonio Di Natale is struggling after reporting that he's feeling unwell.

While the excellent Udinese coach Francesco Guidolin must try and make the best of the players that he has available, it's somehow hard to see the Fiorentina coach Sinisa Mihaijlovic sending out a team and allowing them to play at anything other than their best. There are players with points to prove, most notably Adrian Mutu, and with Riccardo Montolivo and Valon Behrami rejoined by Juan Vargas in a powerful looking midfield, there's every reason to suspect that Fiorentina's front three could have a fun afternoon.

La Viola won this fixture 4-1 last season, and while I can't see that kind of scoreline, the home side should certainly be backed at a price which is based on motivation, rather than reality.

Recommendation: Back Fiorentina to beat Udinese @ [2.6]

Dave Farrar believes both his featured games will provide plenty of goals this weekend, but perhaps the best bet could be for Lazio to grab a famous victory at Inter....

After this weekend's action we're closer to knowing who will be winning the major European leagues and that includes Serie A, after Napoli lost at home to Udinese. It's now AC Milan's to lose, says Ben Lyttleton....

Inter are all but out of this title race in the eyes of Dave Farrar and it's left to AC Milan and Napoli to fight to the bitter death. They should both win pretty comfortably this weekend......

April 18, 2011

Serie A Results: Napoli stopped in their tracks

Italian Football

/ Ben Lyttleton / 18 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Gokhan Inler opened the scoring for Udinese against Napoli and there are rumours he may be heading south to play for Sunday night's opponents

"The ramifications of the result were huge at the top of the table. Milan,
six points clear with five games left, surely cannot slip up now, while
Napoli will bemoan a record against the four teams around them which reads
six defeats in seven games."

This was the weekend that the chasing pack faltered: in England, Arsenalv dropped points to Liverpool; in Spain, Real Madrid did the same, albeit to champions-elect Barcelona; it was the same story in Germany, where second-placed Bayer Leverkusen were thrashed 5-1 by Bayern Munich, which as good as confirms Borussia Dortmund as champions.

When Inter lost 2-0 to Parma on Saturday night, the Scudetto turned into a two-horse race, the advantage with leaders AC Milan after their 3-0 win over Sampdoria. Napoli remained their biggest threat, and faced out-of-form Udinese needing a win to reduce the gap to three points.

Francesco Guidolin has performed miracles at the Fruili club, but Udinese went into the game having just lost to Lecce and Roma and were without top scorer Antonio di Natale and playmaker Alexis Sanchez, who between them had scored 38 of their 57 league goals for the season. They also lost Mauricio Isla, their outstanding wide-player, though injury in the first half but still they recovered to beat the title-chasers 2-1, goals from Gokhan Inler and centre-forward German Denis (formerly of Napoli) rendering Giuseppe Mascara's late consolation in vain. Before Mascara struck, Edinson Cavani had his late penalty stopped by Samir Handanovic, the Slovenian's fifth stop of the season.

The ramifications of the result were huge at the top of the table. Milan, six points clear with five games left, surely cannot slip up now, while Napoli will bemoan a record against the four teams around them which reads six defeats in seven games.

Udinese are now back in the hunt for a Champions League place, one point behind fourth-placed Lazio. Di Natale has helped Udinese reach the Champions League before (he scored a hat-trick against Werder Bremen which he rates as the highlight of his career) and to do so again would reward his side for a thrilling season.

Udinese have been Italy's grand entertainers, particularly since the turn of the year where their scores have included a 4-2 win over Genoa, a 3-1 win over Inter, a 4-4 draw with Milan and a 7-0 win at Palermo. As betting.betfair.com's Italian specialist Dave Farrar advises, Udinese are always worth backing in the Over-Goals market away from home, where their counter-attacking game is better suited.

The concern that would follow any European qualification would be how many players they can hold on to for next season. Inler looks set for Napoli (reportedly, that's why he didn't celebrate his goal) while Sanchez is a target for Europe's big boys: Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea and Barcelona have all been linked. Isla is another hot property, as are Handanovic and defender Mehdi Benatia. Though Sanchez has claimed otherwise, Udinese's summer recruitment plans will depend on where they finish: they are [1.71] to finish fourth, with Lazio [1.64].

The other market affected by the game was the one for Top Scorer: Di Natale, on 26 goals, is currently [1.73] favourite with Cavani, one goal behind, on [2.28]. The Uruguayan had scored six in his last three before the botched spot-kick, while Di Natale has eight in his last six.

It's not all over in the rest of Europe, though: in France, though Lyon lost to Paris Saint-Germain to end their hopes, leaders Lille could only draw with Bordeaux, so Marseille closed the gap to one point with a 2-1 win over Montpellier. Marseille are [2.2] with Lille, who are beginning to wobble, [1.8].

The closest battle remains is in Holland, where one point separates the top three teams. That's after leaders (and reigning champions) Twente could only draw with De Graafschap, while PSV Eindhoven moved top after beating Heracles 2-0. The biggest surprise is that Ajax are still in the hunt: they came from behind to beat NEC 2-1 and are one point behind the joint-leaders, but having won five of their last six, have the momentum. With three games left to play, PSV are [1.71] to clinch the Eredivisie, with Twente [3.65] and Ajax [3.05].

Inter are all but out of this title race in the eyes of Dave Farrar and it's left to AC Milan and Napoli to fight to the bitter death. They should both win pretty comfortably this weekend......

Two wounded sides face off at the Friuli but will we see the flurry of goals that some expect? Meanwhile, Dave Farrar believes Cesena may be worth a small investment to upset chaotic Palermo......

Dave Farrar looks ahead to the Milan derby where Inter look the bet and Udinese's away trip to Lecce. And you all know what that means....

April 1, 2011

Serie A Betting: Inter the value, Udinese the super value

Italian Football

/ Dave Farrar / 01 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Leonardo could be the one smiling come Saturday night

"And the market reflects exactly that, with Inter at [2.72] and Milan at [3.0], but I think Inter are a bit more superior than that price suggests, and so I’m happy to back them."

Dave Farrar looks ahead to the Milan derby where Inter look the bet and Udinese's away trip to Lecce. And you all know what that means.

At around 10pm on Saturday night we'll know: or at least we'll have a much clearer idea of which team will come out on top in one of the most intriguing Serie A races in years. If Inter win at San Siro on Saturday, then they will go to the top of the table for the first time since Leonardo took over, while if Milan emerge with a victory then they will be five points clear with seven games left and surely cruising to the title. At the moment Milan are [2.24] to win the Scudetto, having traded as low as [1.26], while Inter are [2.5}, having gone as high as [9.2]. And Napoli mustn't be forgotten either: they're trading at [8.0], and a draw in the derby could leave the way open for them to make a late run and steal the Scudetto away from San Siro.

Onto the game itself, and it's time to ponder that old footballing saying about the team which handles the pressure the best coming out on top. I know that will irritate many of you, but such has been the build up, and such will be the atmosphere, that it's particularly true here.

Milan have not been dealing well with the pressure of leading Serie A, and the Rossoneri appear to be crumbling just when it matters. Massimiliano Allegri's team have picked up just one point from their last two games, against poor opposition in Bari and Palermo, and now they must pick themselves up for the challenge of Inter without Zlatan Ibrahimovic, still stupidly suspended, still endlessly frustrating. If you add to that the fact that Antonio Cassano and Alexandre Pato are both carrying injuries, and that Kevin Prince Boateng and Clarence Seedorf will be the men trying to provide the creativity behind the strikers, then you veer towards it being Inter's night.

But then you consider the suspension of Lucio and the possible absences of both Andrea Ranocchia and Cristian Chivu, and you can't help but wonder about Inter defensively. On the face of it, it looks an even game, with Inter just having the edge. And the market reflects exactly that, with Inter at [2.72] and Milan at [3.0], but I think Inter are a bit more superior than that price suggests, and so I'm happy to back them. The over/under 2.5 goals market is also interesting.

This is a fixture which rarely finishes 0-0, and can be thrilling, and although Milan won 1-0 earlier in the season, I think that we'll see very different approaches here. Leonardo will send Inter out to win, knowing that this is their best chance of turning the title race decisively in their favour, while Milan might start tentatively, but a goal will open this game up and two talented strike forces could end up producing quite a match. I fancy Inter to win, and possibly dish out a season changing thrashing (remember they won this fixture 4-0 last season). If that happens, then bets on the Nerazzurri and on the "overs" will both come good.

Recommendation:

Back Inter to beat Milan @ [2.72]

Back over 2.5 Goals in Milan v Inter @ [2.22]

Lecce v Udinese

Udinese are the other fly in the title ointment, and if they'd only started their magnificent run earlier, then I'm sure they'd be champions. They're trading at [19.5] now, having touched a high of [1000.00], and I fully expect them to go to the seaside and beat Lecce, and possibly move to within four points of the lead. Regular readers of this column (both of you) will know that there's a simple way to profit with Udinese which has worked pretty well for us since the turn of the season and there's certainly no reason to desert it now.

You should be very wary of backing over 2.5 goals in Udinese home games, as they can struggle to score against teams who sit back and defend against them, but you should be very keen to back over 2.5 goals when Udinese are away from home and able to counter attack and to utilise space. Lecce will let them do that, and the nine consecutive Udinese away games which produced at least three goals will almost certainly turn into ten on Sunday afternoon. Udinese beat Lecce 4-0 at the Friuli earlier in the season, and we could very well see the kind of score that we had when Lecce played Palermo at the Via Del Mare in February. It was 4-2 to the visitors then, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if we saw something similar on Sunday, so I'm happy to go for over 3.5 goals, rather than stick with the [1.8] about over 2.5. And if other results go their way, then the outsiders from Udine will be shortened even more for an unlikely title win.

Recommendation Over 3.5 goals in Lecce v Udinese @ [3.1]

Finally a word to the Serie A schedulers. Given that we have so many weekends without a big fixture in this league, did we really have to cram the Milan derby, Roma v Juve and Napoli v Lazio into the same weekend? It makes for a feast this Saturday and Sunday, but those games would have brightened up a couple of dark January Sundays. For what it's worth, I think that Roma will beat Juve and Napoli and Lazio will draw. And all of that will play into the hands of both Milan clubs....and Udinese!

It's a match that could have even more impact on the Serie A title race than usual and as ever, the tactics and the players named in the starting eleven will make a huge difference to the outcome. Michael Cox...

He's the Marmite of European football - you either love him or hate him. Yes, Zlatan Ibrahimovic is an enigma, but his performances over the next few weeks could decide where the Serie A title ends up....

Udinese are bidding for a Champions League place but can struggling Catania disrupt their form? Meanwhile, Milan head to Palermo in search of a vital three points. Dave Farrar selects the best bets....

March 22, 2011

Serie A Betting: Is Milan's destiny in Ibrahimovic's hands?

Italian Football

/ Ben Lyttleton / 21 March 2011 / 1 Comments

Walking the walk after being dismissed against Bari but can his goals help Milan to the title over the next few weeks?

"Ibrahimovic has a reputation in England for bottling big games and
disappearing against Premier League opposition, but his supporters have
claimed it's more to do with a seasonal dip in form around February-March,
which happens to coincide with the Champions League knock-out rounds."

He's the Marmite of European football in that you either love him or hate him. Zlatan Ibrahimovic is a bit of an enigma and his performances over the next few weeks could decide where the Serie A title ends up.

How do you solve a problem like Zlatan Ibrahimovic? That's the problem for Milan coach Max Allegri, who was without his totemic striker for the defeat at Palermo, a loss which narrowed the gap at the top of Serie A to two points. Milan are now winless in three and will miss Ibrahimovic, who was sent off against Bari last week, for two more matches: against Inter, his former club, in a fortnight, and Fiorentina.

These are tense times at Milan, with the derby against Inter coming on the back of a European exit at the hands of Tottenham Hotspur and, just as galling, Inter's dramatic success over Bayern Munich. Astonishingly, considering the club's disarray under Rafa Benitez, Inter are still on to repeat the treble success of last season. The revitalised Inter are ([2.32]) to win the Coppa Italia, and ([9.4]) for the Champions League.

Allegri has tried to talk down the importance of the Inter game, the first game back after the international break, but Milan have been top for 19 weeks and will slip back to second if Inter win. Inter have now come in to [2.4] to retain the Scudetto while Milan are [2.34].

Of more pressing concern to the Milanisti is what kind of form Ibrahimovic will be in when he returns from his suspension. He was singled out for blame after the 0-0 draw against Spurs, with La Stampa writing: "Ibra's allergy is to the climate in the cups, now there is proof. That match would have had a different outcome if there had been the slightest trace of the Swede who has been so decisive in the league."

Ibrahimovic has a reputation in England for bottling big games and disappearing against Premier League opposition, but his supporters have claimed it's more to do with a seasonal dip in form around February-March, which happens to coincide with the Champions League knock-out rounds. Is this true? It happened in 2007-08, when his season total for Inter was 22 goals, but his February-March tally was two in nine (including two goalless performances against Liverpool.)

In 2008-09, he scored 29 goals, with six in nine in those months (though none against Manchester United); and last season, it was a healthy seven in ten (including two against Arsenal). This year, it's down to one in nine. That's two poor and two decent periods out of four. So to suggest that a climatic dip is a regular occurrence is simply revising history.

Alex Pato is already an injury doubt for the Inter game, which reduces Allegri's options further. But though the mood of tension at Milan is palpable and has been ever since Leonardo took over as coach and the prospect of him overturning his former club became increasingly realistic there are reasons for optimism.

One, Milan has a slightly easier run-in than Inter, who have to play at Roma and Napoli in May; Milan go to Roma and Udinese, but also play mid-table sides Bologna and Calgliari, and struggling Brescia. Then there is Zlatan's historical form in May: the Swede has not won the last four league titles he's competed in for nothing: at Inter in 2009, he scored five goals in the last four games of the season; in 2008, two on the last day (after missing the previous seven weeks); and in 2007, four in his last six games.

In a recent interview with a Dutch magazine, Ibrahimovic was asked how good he thought he was: "A great player? No, that's not me," he said. "I'm a good
goalscorer. A good striker. But I have had games in which I was totally invisible and yet still scored. That's what I do, but great players will never do that. They carry the team, they allow others to play better and make the team better. Someone like Zidane, Bergkamp or Jari Litmanen."

Two of those three players have now retired and Litmanen, now 40, has been training with Helsinki side HJK. With time running out on Milan's title challenge and Inter hard on their heels, they need Ibrahimovic to steer them over the finishing-line. He will have six games left in which to do it. And then maybe he can call himself a great player.

Juventus are running the risk of letting the unthinkable happen and finishing in the bottom half of the table. This weekend they travel to Cesena and there are good reasons to think any sort of a rebuilding exercise won't be...

Juve are out of form but Milan face a tough task if they are to overcome their old rivals, says Dave Farrar. Meanwhile, can the capped crusader overcome Lazio? And make sure you watch Udinese....

March 4, 2011

Serie A Betting: Can Milan stay focused for Juve trip?

Italian Football

/ Dave Farrar / 04 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Dave believes that Milan would be significantly weakened without Alexandre Pato

"I’m going for Milan to win a low scoring game by the odd goal."

Juve are out of form but Milan face a tough task if they are to overcome their old rivals, says Dave Farrar. Meanwhile, can the capped crusader overcome Lazio? And make sure you watch Udinese.

Juventus v Milan

That price of [5.3] that was being laid about a Napoli win on Monday night tempted me in, and let's face it, I was wrong. Milan were much the better side, particularly in the second half. Conspiracy theories have been rife in Italy this week, with Inter fans certain that Milan influenced the referee at San Siro. Even if that is true, Napoli were poor: tired, unambitious, and there for the taking.

The romantics among us would like to think that brilliant Udinese could come from the clouds and snatch the title at a massive price, but it's a two horse race now, and Milan's difficult run in continues with a trip to Turin to play their old rivals Juventus.

Juve have been in desperate form lately, losing to Lecce and Bologna in the last two weeks, but before we pile on Milan at [2.62], we must remember two things: the Rossoneri have a huge Champions League game against Tottenham in midweek, and Juventus play much better against big clubs than they do against the likes of Lecce and Bologna. They've lost six in ten, but they beat Inter three games ago: go figure.

The other thing to bear in mind is that Juve won at Milan back in October, but those were the days when Fabio Quagliarella was fit and Juve looked to have a genuine title chance. There are rumours that Massimiliano Allegri is going to rest Pato with a view to the Spurs game, and that would worry me, as the young Brazilian is in fine form and was the key man against Napoli. Giorgio Chiellini has a good record against Zlatan Ibrahimovic and so with no Pato, Milan may have to rely on goals from elsewhere.

Even though they beat Inter, Juve are hard to fancy on their current run, and the fight may just have gone out of Gigi Delneri's team. Milan have the best away record in Serie A, and the feeling that this game may be a likelier route to silverware than the Champions League could well mean that we see a polished, bloodless, Milan win. So, after careful consideration, and with due respect to Alessandro Matri, a player I like a great deal, I'm going for Milan to win a low scoring game by the odd goal.

Recommendation: Back Milan to win 1-0 @ [9.0]

Lazio v Palermo

The cap wearing maniac Serse Cosmi is back, and Serie A is a far richer league for his return. Delio Rossi was sacked from his job as Palermo coach last week and Cosmi now has until the end of the season to convince President Zamparini to give him the job on a full time basis. Forget football - I would pay good money to be a fly on the wall in a Cosmi-Zamparini meeting. It's not a relationship that anyone can see lasting long, but there will be fireworks as long as it lasts.

The question we have to ask ourselves as punters is whether we should keep opposing Palermo after their 7-0 capitulation against Udinese last week. In short, yes. They have the same injury problems (Mattia Cassani might be back, but that won't solve everything) and they still look awfully fragile at the back.

Lazio have done well to stay in fourth place after setting the pace in Serie A and then falling away, and their home form has been largely excellent. The Olimpico can be a soulless place on a Sunday afternoon, but that seems to suit Edy Reja's team: they're mega professional, tight defensively, and usually find a way to get a goal. They somehow don't seem to need passion flooding onto the pitch from the Curva. The opposite, in fact of a team like Palermo: the men in pink are capable of turning in unforgettable performances at home when the Renzo Barbera is full, but on a quiet night, or away from Sicily, their spark and energy seems to vanish.

They have won four away from home, but they were at Lecce, Cesena and, impressively, at Fiorentina and Juventus. Cosmi will make them play with pride, but those who think of the "bounce" factor of a new coach should also bear in mind that Lazio have their sights set on the Champions League, and don't think for a minute that they will be outfought.

After a normal week, I'd have fancied Lazio to win this, and an unsettled Palermo defence shorn of confidence makes me doubly confident. Lazio haven't scored four goals in a game all season, so the "Any Unquoted" correct score is pushing it at [12.0], but Lazio are rock solid at odds against to win, probably comfortably.

Recommended bet: Back Lazio to beat Palermo @ [2.06]

Finally, a quick warning to those of you who are tempted to pile into Udinese at home against the bottom club Bari. Udinese have been the team of the year, and I make no apology for constantly referring to their brilliant style of play. If you haven't yet watched them, then make sure that you do. However, their title challenge has turned into a Champions League challenge because of their inability to beat poor teams at home. Since the turn of the year, they've played thrilling counter attacking football away from home, and yet drawn at the Friuli against both Bologna and Brescia. If they'd won those games they'd be just seven points behind Milan.

The Bari coach Bortolo Mutti is very clever and experienced, and will play for a 0-0. It won't keep his team up, but may restore some pride. Udinese are the likelier winners, but are no [1.31] pokes. And under 2.5 goals at [2.34] is hugely tempting. Four of Udinese's last five home games have featured two goals or fewer, and while my heart says I want to watch them dish out another Alexis Sanchez inspired thrashing, my head tells me to be very, very careful.

Juve are out of form but Milan face a tough task if they are to overcome their old rivals, says Dave Farrar. Meanwhile, can the capped crusader overcome Lazio? And make sure you watch Udinese....

There's a very good chance that in two weeks time we'll no longer have any Italian representatives left in European competitions. Rigid ractics and a lack of dynamism are partly to blame, says Jonathan Wilson....

There's a long way to go yet in this season's Serie A race and they may well drop points as soon as Monday night when Napoli come calling. Elsewhere Udinese can spring a bit of an upset of their own....

February 26, 2011

Serie A Betting: Don't rule out the Milan home defeat

Italian Football

/ Dave Farrar / 25 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Antonio Cassano (ineligible in Europe) returns to the side but it may not be enough to beat Napoli

"I’m tempted by the [5.3] which is available about Napoli causing a shock, but without Lavezzi they’re likely to be happier with a draw than they might have been."

There's a long way to go yet in this season's Serie A race and they may well drop points as soon as Monday night when Napoli come calling. Elsewhere Udinese can spring a bit of an upset of their own.

Palermo v Udinese

The Palermo president Maurizio Zamparini has been winning friends and influencing people again this week, telling the press in Sicily that the recent poor run of the men in pink and black is "all the coach's fault."

Delio Rossi and the Udinese boss Francesco Guidolin will be able to compare notes on Signor Zamparini, as Guidolin has been fired three times from the Palermo hotseat. Guidolin is in the happier position at the moment, with his Udinese side the team of 2011 so far, and now that Alexis Sanchez is back from suspension, they're likely to give Palermo a real run for their money. Fabrizio Miccoli is out with an injury for the home team, and with Palermo having lost their last two matches in disappointing fashion, Udinese may just be a bit of value at [3.5] to go to the Renzo Barbera and win.

Recommendation: Back Udinese to beat Palermo @ [3.5]

Roma v Parma

While European football fans were concentrating on the Champions League in midweek, there was a significant and slightly surprising result in Serie A, but it's one that will have passed many people by.

In their first game since Claudio Ranieri left the club, Roma went to Bologna and won 1-0 in what was a pretty dull game. The result was significant because Roma don't really do dull, having conceded fourteen goals in their previous four Serie A matches, but in a new formation, and with a new impetus, they despatched a decent Bologna side fairly comfortably.

It seems too simplistic to say that senior players had fallen out with Ranieri, and that the group had stopped trying, but rumours coming out of the club suggest that this was the case, and that Roma might be set for a focused and successful end of the season. Caretaker manager Vincenzo Montella is organised, intelligent, and popular, and that might be enough.

Roma should certainly be too good for Parma, who have hidden from the outside world this week after a desperate 2-2 draw against Cesena, and they're only four points away from relegation after a terrible 2011 so far. It could well be a second clean sheet in a row for Roma, and they're always dangerous going forward, so rate good value at odds against to give the visitors a goal start on the Asian Handicap.

Recommendation ROMA -1 on Asian Handicap @ [2.1]

Milan v Napoli

The Monday evening game in Serie A is unquestionably the match of the weekend, and quite possibly the ninety minutes that will define the rest of the season. Milan go into the weekend three points clear of Napoli, and five points clear of Inter, although by the time that these two play on Monday night, Inter could well have reduced the gap to two.

Milan are no shoo-ins to win the title, and this is the first of seven really difficult games which face them on a difficult run-in. The Rossoneri are definitely too short at [1.74] to finish the season as champions, with a trip to Juventus to come next week, and the Milan derby to follow not long afterwards.

The game is being played on Monday night because of Napoli's Europa League match against Villareal, and once the initial disappointment of being eliminated has abated, the Neapolitans will probably see that their ability to focus on Serie A is a good thing.

Tottenham exposed Milan's occasional lack of inspiration in front of goal, and Napoli are able to do likewise, although they will be seriously hampered by the absense of the suspended Ezequiel Lavezzi. I'm tempted by the [5.3] which is available about Napoli causing a shock, but without Lavezzi they're likely to be happier with a draw than they might have been.

Milan are still missing Andrea Pirlo, but those of you who were unimpressed by them in the Champions League should remember that the Serie A version of Milan features Antonio Cassano, who can provide the creativity which they so sorely lacked against Spurs, but is ineligible to play in Europe. The Napoli win can't go unbacked purely on value terms (after all both Roma and Juve have won at Milan this season), but it should be supported with a bet on under 2.5 goals at [1.83]. Napoli will stifle for a half, and then try and sprit away a win. They may well succeed, but I doubt that it will be pretty to watch.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 Goals in Milan v Napoli @ [1.83]
Napoli to win @ [5.3]

The Tinkerman has gone but whoever replaces him at Roma - and it might yet be the current Chelsea boss - will need to overhaul an ageing squad, says Ben Lyttleton....

Both Fiorentina and Sampdoria look sharp in front of goal so it's worth backing overs when they meet this weekend, says Dave Farrar. Meanwhile, how fortunes have changed since the last time Udinese met Brescia and an entertaining Saturday night...

February 18, 2011

Serie A Betting Preview: New philosophy means goals in Florence

Italian Football

/ Dave Farrar / 18 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will Alberto Gilardino be celebrating on Sunday?

The last three matches between Bologna and Palermo point to a feast at the Dall’Ara, and there’s every reason to play over 3.5 goals at [3.4]

Fiorentina v Sampdoria

It's not a vintage Serie A weekend, and so this game at the Artemio Franchi probably counts as the most attractive tie. Fiorentina have had quite a week: Sinisa Mihaijlovic's previously dour side suddenly turned into the great entertainers, producing an astonishing performance by coming from behind to win 4-2 at Palermo, and then counting themselves a little unlucky to lose at home against Inter.

There's no question that Mihaijlovic has decided, perhaps momentarily, to change his footballing philosophy. He's realised that the players that La Viola have are more suited to going forward, and there's certainly a sense that the Serb has let the team off the leash: great news for the likes of Adrian Mutu, Alberto Gilardino, Riccardo Montolivo and Adem Ljajic. Despite losing, Fiorentina created chances against Inter, and are likely to do so again against a Sampdoria side which has also found some much needed threat in front of goal.

Samp scored three in a single half against Bologna last weekend, and yet reverted to type in the Derby della Lanterna against Genoa in midweek, losing 1-0 and failing to show any kind of creativity. It's always been my opinion, though, that you can pretty much discount form from the Genoa derby, as the pressure on both sets of players is unbelievably high, and I expect beleagured coach Mimmo Di Carlo will once again send his team out to attack.

Over 2.5 goals is understandably trading at odds against, as neither of these sides is renowned for being involved in high scoring games, but the change of philosophy from the home team, coupled with Di Carlo's determination to potentially go down fighting, means that we could be set for a surprisingly open game in Tuscany this weekend.

Recommended bets: Back over 2.5 Goals in Fiorentina v Sampdoria @ [2.34]

Udinese v Brescia

I've raved in this column before about the wonderful job that has been done by the Udinese coach Francesco Guidolin and the Zebrette's revival continued under him as last week's victory against Cesena made it four wins out of five and took Udinese to within two points of fourth place.

Guidolin knows that if his team can keep going then they're in with a major chance of a Champions League place, something that seemed an impossible dream when they played Brescia in October: back then, Udinese were bottom of the table. Brescia's fortunes have waned as Udinese's have waxed, and Beppe Iachini's team is now in the bottom three. I don't think that things will get any better for them at the Friuli, but with the excellent Alexis Sanchez suspended, Udinese may not be their usual fluent attacking force and could take a little bit longer than usual to break Brescia down. Over 2.5 goals is trading at [1.85] at the moment and that's too short, although may be worth a look in Betfair's in-play market.

I prefer to think that Udinese will win relatively comfortably and, even though Brescia have managed to grab some unlikely goals away from home this season, backing the home side at [7.0] to win by two goals to nil, with at least one of them almost certainly scored by Antonio Di Natale, is the most intelligent play.

Recommended bet: Udinese to win 2-0 @ [7.0]

Bologna v Palermo

Palermo have been doing the job for us in recent weeks in terms of the over 2.5 goals market, and there's no reason to desert them as they travel to another side who are a threat in front of goal. Four of Bologna's last six matches in all competitions have featured at least three goals, and with Palermo determined to bounce back to form after their humiliating defeat at home against Fiorentina last week, we could be set for some real entertainment in Emilia-Romagna on Saturday evening.

Palermo have a defensive injury crisis heading into the game, and with the knowledge that they're in danger of conceding, Delio Rossi seems certain to send his team out in an attacking frame of mind. The last three matches between these teams also point to a feast at the Dall'Ara, and there's every reason to play over 3.5 goals at [3.4]

Recommendation Over 3.5 Goals in Bologna v Palermo @ [3.4]

Napoli's trip to Roma offers good punting opportunities but the even better prospects lie in Palermo v Fiorentina where two selections scream out as big value, says Dave Farrar....

Inter beat Roma 5-3 on Sunday night to further close the gap on rivals AC Milan and prove that Leonardo is the right man to take the team forward. Mind you, he's had a little more help than Rafael Benitez...

February 7, 2011

Serie A Betting: Leonardo dai-vinci

Italian Football

/ Ben Lyttleton / 07 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

All smiles. Leonardo shares a joke with new Japanese recuit Yuto Nagamoto

"To add further insult to Benitez, who also complained that Mourinho had been
given €80m to spend the previous summer whereas he had nothing, Moratti has
dipped into his pockets in January, spending over €20m to land Italy internationals Andrea Ranocchia (from Genoa) and Giampaolo Pazzini(Sampdoria), and Japanese full-back Yuto Nagamoto."

There was a 13-point gap between Inter Milan and their city rivals AC Milan at the top of the table when Inter president Massimo Moratti decided to sack Rafa Benitez and replace him with Leonardo just after the club had won the Club World Cup last December. If losing Benitez was not a risk - he had alienated his players with his training methods and refused to acknowledge the success of his nemesis and predecessor, the treble-winning Jose Mourinho - the appointment of Leonardo was.

Not only did Leonardo have just one year's experience of being on the bench, but that was at Milan, where he had spent 13 years as a player, ambassador, director and then coach. But Moratti was confident that Leonardo's personality would fit at his club (which makes you wonder why he appointed Benitez, a coach who is the arch-opposite of Mourinho, at least in terms of man-management).

Inter's players have responded to the Brazilian's motivational skills, and ball-based as opposed to gym-based training methods; Inter won their first five games with the new man there - hence Gazzetta nicknaming him Leonardo dai-vinci, 'Leonardo of the wins' - and, after last night's rip-roaring 5-3 win over ten-man Roma, have now reduced the gap to five points - with a game in hand. Reports emanating from the other side of the city suggest that Milan, who could only draw 1-1 with Genoa, are getting extremely nervous about Inter's recovery.

To add further insult to Benitez, who also complained that Mourinho had been given €80m to spend the previous summer whereas he had nothing, Moratti has dipped into his pockets in January, spending over €20m to land Italy internationals Andrea Ranocchia (from Genoa) and Giampaolo Pazzini (Sampdoria), and Japanese full-back Yuto Nagamoto. All three played against Roma, but the big boost for Inter came from the return of Wesley Sneijder, in place of Diego Milito, for his first start since December: it took him just two minutes to open the scoring.

Fabio Simplicio equalised ten minutes later. Inter were then 4-1 ahead and had a one-man advantage following Nicolas Burdisso's red card before Roma began an unlikely comeback: Mirko Vucinic and Simone Loria pulled goals back to make it a nervy finale before Esteban Cambiasso netted Inter's fifth in the last minute. For all Inter's run of form - seven wins in their last eight league matches - their defence remains leaky, with only one clean sheet in that run. They have let in five goals in their last three matches.

"We have conceded a lot of goals but I don't want to discuss anything
negative when I'm just delighted we keep on winning," said Leonardo after the game. "We have to keep going with this passion."

Inter were ([8.6]) for the title six weeks ago but have now come in to ([2.54]), with Milan a nervy ([2.1]). Both teams' chances may depend on how they fare in Europe, with Milan facing Spurs in ten days and are ([1.84]) favourites to progress, while Inter have an extra week to prepare for their clash against Bayern Munich, a repeat of last year's final, and are ([1.96]) to get through.

Inter's three January buys could make all the difference in the final analysis - and Pazzini has already helped Inter turn a 2-0 deficit into a 3-2 win last week against Palermo. Roma coach Claudio Ranieri bemoaned his lack of options from the bench while suggesting Inter's squad depth was crucial to their victory. Roma are ten points back from Milan but also have a game in hand: they are ([21.0]) for the Scudetto.

For much of the season, though, this Scudetto race has been about which team
could end Inter's run of five straight titles, with Milan, Napoli, and briefly, Lazio, fancying their chances: now, though, it looks like a straight fight between the Milanese clubs - with Leonardo the man who could
make the difference.

February 4, 2011

Serie A Betting: Roma to derail Inter from the title race

Italian Football

/ Dave Farrar / 04 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Mirko Vucinic is just the sort of player who can give Inter's defence real trouble this weekend

"It was Palermo’s movement that troubled Inter, and that makes the contribution of Mirko Vucinic crucial. If he fires, then I fancy Ranieri’s team. They certainly shouldn’t be the price that they currently are against a team who struggled to break down awful Bari on Thursday night. "

There's a big match this weekend involving two of the three sides who can realistically challenge AC Milan for the Serie A title. The winner will be in a strong position to test the Rossoneri and it may turn out to be outsiders Roma.

Inter v Roma

The only two teams who look like realistically challenging Milan for the Scudetto go head to head on Sunday night in a game which will define the rest of their seasons.

Had Napoli managed to win in Chievo on Wednesday, then you could add their name to the list, but I just don't see how they can recover from a blow like that, and it's down to Leonardo and Claudio Ranieri to throw down a challenge to Massimiliano Allegri. Both teams need Milan to slip up, but if they can win their games in hand, Roma could close to six points behind the Rossoneri, and Inter to four.

That equation makes Sunday crucial, and makes a draw of little use to either side. Given Inter's porous defence, and Leonardo's gung ho style, it's tempting to tip over 2.5 goals at [1.83], but there's so much riding on the game that I could see the ninety minutes being a little more stifling than people think.

Given the extent to which Inter have got away with it in recent weeks, though, I do think Roma are a bet at [4.1]. They'll miss Phillippe Mexes, but Inter look light at the back as well, and if Palermo can get to within a penalty miss and some bad defending of beating the Nerazzurri, then Roma can certainly do a job on them.

It was Palermo's movement that troubled Inter, and that makes the contribution of Mirko Vucinic crucial. If he fires, then I fancy Ranieri's team. They certainly shouldn't be the price that they currently are against a team who struggled to break down awful Bari on Thursday night.

Vucinic got the winner when Roma beat Inter back in September, and the visitors will have happy memories of winning here against Milan before the winter break. I just think that the style of the game suits Roma, and don't forget the joy they will derive if they can beat a team containing Giampaolo Pazzini. It was his goal for Sampdoria in Rome last season which effectively cost Roma the title. It could be a Roma win against Pazzini that ignites their challenge this time round. An if you want to take a chance at a bigger price, then now is the time to punt Roma for the title at [13.5]. They're no good things, but with Milan and Inter both overrated, there are worse bets.

Recommended Bet: Back Roma to beat Inter @ [4.1]

Lecce v Palermo

Anyone who gambles and indeed writes a column like this can fall foul of backing teams that have served them particularly well over the years, and a friend at work rather sarcastically asked if I fancied goals in the Inter against Palermo game last week.

He confidently told me that I had a blind spot about Palermo and that he's be selling goals on the spreads. My only regret was that the game only had five goals, rather than the seven or eight that it really should have produced, as I wanted to obliterate the smile from his his face, rather than simply wipe it off. I accept, though, that I have a blind spot for the men in pink (the "the" in that sentence is key), which is largely down to the amazing hospitality that you encounter when you visit the Renzo Barbera.

Smiling faces and impossibly beautiful women serving fresh espresso at half time will always win me over. Palermo are at Lecce on Sunday, and will still have bad memories of the extent to which Lecce pushed them when the sides met in Sicily.

Palermo trailed 2-0, and needed a late late equaliser to salvage a draw. This should be a similarly open game, with Lecce unlikely to sit back, and Palermo able to counter attack and over run Gigi Di Canio's team. Both teams will probably score, but I'll give that option a swerve at [1.7] or thereabout, and instead will go with Palermo to fire again, and be vulnerable enough defensively to make this an entertaining game. I expected over 2.5 goals to be round about the [1.8] mark, which makes the [1.98] which is available, a bit of value.

Recommended Bet: Back over 2.5 goals in Lecce v Palermo @ [1.98]

Two final thoughts for this week. One is that Cesena might be overpriced to cause a massive upset in Naples at [17.0]. Napoli were dreadful in midweek and are looking very leggy at the moment. (You should be looking to back an excellent Villarreal side to beat them in the Europa League).

And the second is that, if Andy Carroll is worth 35 million pounds, then what price Giampaolo Pazzini? Well, the answer is 11.5 million which he instantly started to repay with his remarkable substitute performance for Inter against Palermo. The perception that Italian strikers don't travel well to England is being confirmed by Mario Balotelli, but surely Spurs or Liverpool should have taken a punt on Pazzini.