MK Dons v Man United: First clean sheet to elude again

"Six of MK Dons’ previous seven Capital One Cup clashes rewarded punters who backed both teams to score."
Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 1.865/6

Michael Lintorn thinks both teams to score is the fastest route to Capital One Cup profit at stadiummk...

MK Dons v Man United
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: MK Dons 9.417/2, Man United 1.384/11, The Draw 5.79/2

Louis van Gaal has a solid cup record, winning Dutch, Spanish and German knockout silverware while at Ajax, Barcelona and Bayern Munich, while you may also just about recall him steering Netherlands to an unexpected third-place finish at World Cup 2014.

However, there wasn't enough evidence in his first Man United two games to make a firm case for backing them at 1.384/11 to beat anyone, let alone a team three matches deeper into 2014/15 and far more adjusted to what is required of them tactically in boss Karl Robinson's fourth season in charge.

MK Dons chairman Pete Winkelman has called this "the biggest game in the club's history", but they usually thrive when forced to confront higher-division opposition.

They held FA Cup holders Wigan twice in the competition last term, conquered Blackburn, Sheffield Wednesday and QPR in 2012/13, thrashed Norwich 4-0 at Carrow Road in 2011/12 and overcame Blackpool in 2010/11. The latter trio were in the Premier League at the time of humbling.

Man United are clearly several notches superior to all of those sides and, even if fielding reserves, can introduce Shinji Kagawa, Javier Hernandez and Danny Welbeck, so should triumph, yet this writer isn't confident enough to back them at their current price.

Both teams to score

Anyone sentencing Man United to another year of misery and irrelevance after their underwhelming start risks being made to regret it - as discussed here - but van Gaal admits that it usually takes a few months for his methods to properly take effect.

The learning process is trickier for the Red Devils due to the extensive injury crisis depriving them of Michael Carrick and summer signings Luke Shaw and Ander Herrera among many others, and because they are adapting to a new shape (3-4-1-2) as well as approach.

The defensive transformation has been particularly challenging due to both fitness problems and slow transfer progress. For instance, Jonny Evans should return for his first start at MK Dons, but Chris Smalling is now sidelined and Marcos Rojo still isn't cleared to play.

Both Man United and their opponents netted in their first two Premier League fixtures, while six of their League One hosts' previous seven Capital One Cup clashes rewarded punters who backed both teams to score.

Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 1.865/6

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Manchester United v Swansea: Moyes' men must be opposed again

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Cheltenham Results: Whisky wins again at Cheltenham

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Against All Odds: Time to lay Sao Paulo again

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Premier League: Back QPR to hit rock bottom again

"On paper at least, it's Redknapp's overpaid flops who have the toughest looking schedule, playing Arsenal and Liverpool with a game against relegation-fighting Newcastle sandwiched in between."
Recommended Bet: Back QPR to finish rock bottom @ 2.56/4

As the bottom two prepare for their long awaited Premier League departures, Christian Crowther assesses the 'Rock Bottom' market...

The race for the top flight wooden spoon is on! In the blue and white corner, we have Reading and in the, erm, blue and white corner also, it's Harry Redknapp's QPR.

If you support a team that wear Hoops in the Premier League this season, you'll no doubt be thinking twice before renewing your season tickets.

After a roundly depressing Sunday lunchtime showing on the box, which summed up two miserable campaigns perfectly, the 0-0 draw at the Madejski seemed a fitting way to end months of putting off the inevitable by sending the two teams into the Championship for the start of next season.

If it had been a boxing match, any referee worth his salt would have ended the contest at half-time.

As it stands, both sides are down with just 25 points apiece and only one goal the difference, keeping QPR just a whisker in front with three left to play.

Reading are favourites at 1.68/13 to finish rock bottom with QPR rated at 2.56/4 to return to the position they kept warm for most of the season.

This is the time to assess both clubs' respective form and run-ins then to search for clues. The form book does little to separate things as that Sunday stroll made it two draws and two defeats from their last four Premier League outings for both.

However, on paper at least, it's Redknapp's overpaid flops who have the toughest looking schedule, playing Arsenal and Liverpool with a game against relegation-fighting Newcastle sandwiched in between.

Arsenal are finishing the season strongly as they strive for a Champions League place and wounded Liverpool have clearly been galvanised by the Luis Suarez affair.

It's difficult to see QPR cultivating much success from these fixtures and a point looks about the best they could hope for as the reverse fixtures with all three opponents
produced none at all.

In comparison, Nigel Adkins' Royals have a slightly gentler looking list with trips to Fulham and West Ham split by a chance to host the outgoing champions Manchester City at the Madejski.

Although strong at home, West Ham represent one of the only five teams Reading have beaten in the league this season, while they also took a point off Fulham earlier in the campaign.

Recommended Bet: Back QPR to finish rock bottom @ 2.56/4

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: 'Hanagan the man again at Beverley'

There’s not much to worry about amongst the opposition either, other than Fennell Bay, but while that one might have a few pounds in hand, High Office could have 10 lb up his sleeve...

Timeform's Chief Correspondent, Jamie Lynch, provides you with his two best bets at Beverley on Thursday...

Let's keep this simple: Fahey's got one first time out that is chucked in on its best form and has a brilliant record when fresh. In 2010, High Office won on his reappearance. In 2011, High Office won on his reappearance off 84. In 2012, High Office was second, beaten a short head, in a 15-runner field at York, off 88. Today, in the 15:35 at Beverley, High Office is reappearing off 80. As they say in America, 'You do the math'. There's not much to worry about amongst the opposition either, other than Fennell Bay, but while that one might have a few pounds in hand, High Office could have 10 lb up his sleeve.

Richard Fahey usually starts the season with a bang but this year it's been a full fireworks display, with 47 winners from 41 runners so far (I did the math), and High Office, back under Hanagan for the first time in ages, could easily go off at 2.89/5 rather than the 3.814/5 he's currently trading at. 

Jeez Ailsa. I can't help but think of Home & Away whenever hearing the name Ailsa. Alf and Ailsa. While I believe Alf is still going strong, Ailsa was killed off, though there was an episode where she sprung back to life briefly to haunt poor Alf. Springing back to life is the hope and expectation of Ailsa Craig at 16:05 this afternoon, and the rationale behind having a few quid on her.

A moribund 2012 campaign has seen her mark reverse, from 75 to 57, but the big difference between now and then is the stable. The early signs are that Edwin Tuer has his horses in much better health and form this year, and if Ailsa Craig is indeed back to life, then she'll pick this lot up and carry them. There's loads of pace on here, which will suit her, and, as Derek Thompson loves to say, it's Hanagan the man again, who's 3 from 6 when teaming up with Tuer. Strewth, she's well handicapped.   

Selections:
Back High Office @ 3.814/5 in the 15:35 at Beverley
Back Ailsa Craig @ 5.49/2 in 16:05 at Beverley

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South Africa v Pakistan 3rd ODI Betting: Can Pakistan produce again?

"We don't play on odds as short as South Africa so again the wise money will be a trade on Pakistan"

Recommended bet
Back-to-lay Pakistan at 2.6213/8

Ed Hawkins had an inkling the tourists would improve and after levelling the series at 1-1, he wonders whether they can take the lead in Jo'burg on Sunday...

South Africa v Pakistan
Start time: 08.00GMT
TV: live on Sky Sports

South Africa
The series is level at 1-1 and South Africa will be wondering what happened to their batting at Centurion. They lost five wickets for 36 runs and never really recovered after that, posting a paltry 191, to lose by six wickets. Dale Steyn returned to the side after missing the first ODI but despite one wicket and an economy rate of under four an over, the tourists were relatively comfortable in chasing the total. They could make one change. Kyle Abbot, who held onto his place for game two but was wicketless, could be replaced by Rory Klieinveldt who was unfortunate in the extreme to miss out having taken four wickets in Bloemfontein. It is possible he suffered a niggle, though.

Pakistan
A much improved Pakistan performance and the last two matches have captured perfectly why they can be so frustrating for gamblers. You never know which side will turn up. It was the bowlers to the fore in Centurion. The giant Mohammad Irfan took four wickets and Junaid Khan two. Saeed Ajmal, the spinner, was also on song with two wickets. There will be concern about Umar Gul's form - he went for more than seven an over - so Wahab Riaz must be in with a shout of plaing this time.

Innings runs
The average first-innings score in the last ten first-innings is 219. Jo'burg has a reputation for big runs, largely because of the South Africa v Australia epic which produced 872 of them in 2008. Recently it has been more of a bowler's wicket. Four times in the last ten games the side batting first have failed to post 154 or more. Pakistan were responsible for one of those, notching 153 in 2007. 15 of the 26 matches have been won by the side fielding first.

Match odds
South Africa could argue that their rhythm was upset by rain in Centurion but they were already on the rocks by the time the heavens opened. There could be more rain around for this clash and, as ever, we would advise that it normally helps the side chasing. Last time out there was some huge money trying to get against South Africa but this time the market is a little calmer. The hosts are 1.594/7 with Pakistan 2.6213/8. We don't play on odds as short as South Africa so again the wise money will be a trade on Pakistan. Before their first wicket on Friday they had drifted to the cusp of 4.003/1 so the value is clear if they can get a foothold.

Top South Africa runscorer
Cricket can be a cruel game. Colin Ingram, star of the show in the second ODI with a century, got a first ball duck in Centurion. Perhaps he will now post another score? He is 5.004/1. Hashim Amla is jolly here at a scandalous 3.7011/4. Graeme Smith is 5.004/1 and AB De Villiers 4.507/2. Farhaan Berhadien, who top scored last time, is 8.4015/2.

Top Pakistan batsman
Kamran Akmal, as discussed in our previous preview, was shunted up to No 3 but the value on him has now gone. In truth we are looking at the powerful middle-order of Younis Khan, Misbah-ul-Haq and Shoaib Malik for runs.

Recommended Bet

Back-to-lay Pakistan at 2.6213/8

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ATP Indian Wells Betting: Matosevic value against Querrey and Murray may have to work again

"Matosevic is striking the ball well and Querrey doesn’t have a good record at Indian Wells, with just one fourth round appearance lifetime at this venue.."

Back Matosevic +3.5 games to beat Querrey at 1.834/5

Sean Calvert was back to winning ways at Indian Wells yesterday and he's identified another tempting wager at the BNP Paribas Open this evening...

Kevin Anderson more than justified my faith in him yesterday with a thoroughly convincing straight sets win over Jarkko Nieminen to make my straight sets wager a winner at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden.

The big South African was in rare form again and after his win over David Ferrer the previous round and the Finn had no answers in a 6-3, 6-1 stroll in which Anderson lost just one point on his first serve.

Elsewhere, Jerzy Janowicz produced the kind of performance against Richard Gasquet that I was expecting when he faced David Nalbandian in the previous round. The Pole managed just 41% of first serves in play, which was never likely to get the job done against the Gasman.

It was easy for Roger Federer and even easier for Rafa Nadal, whose opponent withdrew and probably the highlight of the day was a typically barmy performance from Ernests Gulbis, who showed his full repertoire in a tight three set win over Andreas Seppi. 

Andy Murray is in action tonight against the man who memorably stunned him at the 2008 Olympics Yen Hsun Lu, but that match won't be on until 2am. For those staying up late marking their cards for Cheltenham I would be inclined to side with Lu with a 5.5 game start at around 1.9520/21. 

Murray recovered from a slow start against Evgeny Donskoy, but he's not the same player in Masters compared to Slams and I doubt that he'll take Lu apart tonight. 

Also in action today are Novak Djokovic who should have few problems getting past Grigor Dimitrov and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who should take care of a very rusty Mardy Fish. Juan Martin Del Potro also looks to have a pretty routine task against diminutive German Bjorn Phau.

But Marin Cilic versus Milos Raonic should be competitive and probably quite long, with the overs looking good there and I like Nico Almagro to edge it against Tommy Haas, but perhaps better value comes in the match between Marinko Matosevic and Sam Querrey.

Big Sam has had a pretty average year so far and is perhaps best known for a shocking choke against Gulbis in Delray Beach so far in 2013 and he has been beaten by Matosevic already this season. 

The Aussie has eased into the third round stage by beating Tommy Robredo and Juan Monaco in straight sets, which shows that he's striking the ball well and Querrey doesn't have a good record at Indian Wells, with just one fourth round appearance lifetime at this venue. 

The 3.259/4 about a Matosevic win is worthy of consideration, but the 3.5 game handicap start at 1.834/5 looks a good bet in this one, as surely at least one and probably all sets of this one will be close. 

Recommended Bet
Back Matosevic +3.5 games to beat Querrey at 1.834/5

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Serie A Season Preview: Old Lady ready to dominate once again

"Juventus were the best team in Italy by a long way last season, and this time around they look stronger, while their major rivals look weaker. What's not to like about a price of 2.186/5?"

Back Juventus to win Serie A @ 2.186/5

Italy's finest kick-off the Serie A season this weekend and, with their rivals weakened, Dave Farrar is finding it very hard to see past reigning champions Juventus...

I heard Zonal Marking's Michael Cox say recently that Serie A is the most open League in Europe. Now, Michael is someone for whom I have a great deal of time and respect, and is also of this parish, but I think that he's wrong. I can see where he's coming from: in Italy, there's no Real/Barca style domination, there's no Manchester hegemony, and certainly no Paris St Germain. But I think that Italy's top flight has a more obvious winner this season than another major European League, with the possible exception of France.

Juventus were the best team in Italy by a long way last season, and this time around they look stronger, while their major rivals look weaker. What's not to like about a price of 2.186/5?

Naysayers and contrarians will suggest that Antonio Conte's absence from the Juve bench will have a negative effect on the team: that's true, but remember that Conte will still be in charge of the day-to-day running of the club, and it's only on the touchline and the dressing room where he'll be missed. Juve look like one of those teams that can just about coach themselves, and Massimo Carrera should be more than capable of coping with the ten month task ahead. If they, as is widely reported, are able to sign Fernando Llorente, then they'll be yet more powerful.

So that's Juve, and in the limited number of words that I have, I'll dismiss the potential challengers as follows: Milan have lost the best three players in the division and signed a lump of a striker in Giampaolo Pazzini. Enjoy the cheque, Pazzo. Napoli have no Ezequiel Lavezzi and their squad still looks too small and short of quality. Inter are a side that COULD emerge as a challenger, but I'm prepared to gamble that the combination of an inexperienced coach in a high-pressure job, and a far from sparkling squad, will leave them short. Lazio are a shambles, Udinese have lost two high-class players, and Roma will be great to watch under Zdenek Zeman, but I can't see them putting together a realistic title challenge, although I'd love to see them do it. So far, so dismissive.

If you don't like the idea of taking 2.186/5, and are of the opinion that Juve are worth taking on, then you could do a lot worse than throw a speculative sum at Fiorentina. La Viola have recruited one of the best young coaches in Vincenzo Montella, and he in turn has recruited well, replacing Riccardo Montolivo with the likes of Borja Valero, Alberto Aquilani, David Pizarro and Matias Fernandez: I don't think that they'll win Serie A, but they can give us a trading angle from a starting point of around 170.0169/1 and are worth backing for a top-three finish at a double figure price.

The Top Goalscorer market looks interesting with a couple of potentially weak favourites to take on. I can't possibly criticise Antonio Di Natale whose goal scoring record in recent seasons has been astonishing. A weakened Udinese will be even more of a struggle this season for him though, and while Edinson Cavani is a wonderful player, he has lost a supplier in Ezequiel Lavezzi, and may have to share the goals around with Lorenzo Insigne and Goran Pandev.

Given Zeman's attacking philosophy, we have to have a Roma player on our side, and the man that I'm keen to support is new arrival Mattia Destro, who is an excellent finisher and a solid citizen, less likely to miss chunks of the season than his strike partner Pablo Osvaldo. If you can get him matched at around 11.010/1 then that would be a price worth taking. The other player that interests me is Stefan Jovetic of Fiorentina. He is as big as 28-1 with some fixed odds operators, and that's gigantic for a player with such talent and likely to be playing in such a good team. Try to get Jovetic matched at around 30.029/1

Recommended Bets
Back Juventus to win Serie A @ 2.186/5
Back Fiorentina Top 3 finish @ 10.09/1
Back Mattia Destro Top Goalscorer @ 11.010/1
Back Stefan Jovetic Top Goalscorer @ 30.029/1

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International Stakes Result: Imperious Frankel wins again

"I suspected they'd go a good gallop, but we had our plan in place. It panned out nicely - he won ever so well. It's a fantastic training performance."

Frankel, the top-rated horse in Timeform's history, took the step up to ten furlongs in his stride, running out an emphatic winner of the Group 1 International Stakes...

Frankel has been awarded a provisional Timeform rating of 143 for his devastating success in the Juddmonte International, the fourth time that he has recorded a figure higher than 140. His master rating remains unchanged at 147, with the style of victory on the Knavesmire leaving the impression that, one day, his rating may yet go higher.

The result was never in doubt as Frankel loomed up effortlessly on the bridle two furlongs out in the hands of Tom Queally, powering clear of his rivals to register another extremely comfortable success. Farhh just held off St Nicholas Abbey to grab second, seven lengths behind Henry Cecil's star colt.

Queally said: "I suspected they'd go a good gallop, but we had our plan in place. It panned out nicely - he won ever so well. It's a fantastic training performance."

Queally added: "I gave them enough of a lead for the pace we were going and he won ever so well. He's certainly as good (over a mile and a quarter as a mile). Every man and his dog seemed to want to put their penny's worth in to say where he should run, but to run him in the owner's race and for him to make it 13 out of 13 speaks for itself. I'm delighted to be a part of it.

Sir Henry Cecil added: "That was great, wasn't it? It's fantastic. It's great for Yorkshire, they are very supportive of racing and they deserve to see him."

Asked how it made him feel, the trainer said: "Twenty years better."

When asked about Frankel's future targets, Teddy Grimthorpe, racing manager for Prince Abdullah, said: "He's not in there (the Arc). Henry didn't want him in the race and he'd have to be supplemented. There will be a discussion and we'll have to see. The plan was always Ascot (Champion Stakes or QEII) but we'll have to see how he comes out of race."

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Mersey Novices' Hurdle: Simonsig to star again

Latest News / Timeform / 13 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Simonsig should have little trouble on Saturday

Simonsig will start a short-priced favourite in the Mersey Novices' Hurdle at Aintree on Saturday....

Barry Geraghty partnered the Nicky Henderson-trained Simonsig to a smooth victory in the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham to make it three wins and a second from four efforts and will again be in the saddle on Saturday.

"I'm mad about him. He's fairly exciting. He could have run over two miles at Cheltenham but I always felt that two-five would help his jumping a little," Geraghty told At The Races.

"He'll have no problem coming back to two miles over fences, he'll have more respect for them.

"He'll be a better chaser than a hurdler I'd imagine which would make him very exciting.

"I'm looking forward to this race with him but I'm definitely looking forward to next year."

Timeform Top 5 Weight-Adjusted Ratings
179p SIMONSIG
155 COLOUR SQUADRON (IRE)
153p SUPER DUTY (IRE)
152p BABY SHINE (IRE)
151p ALAND ISLANDS (IRE)

Timeform run the rule over the runners for the most famous race in the world, the Grand National at Aintree......

Sprinter Sacre will face just three in the Maghull Novices' Chase at Aintree on Saturday......

Racecourse: Aintree First Race Time: 14:00 Going: Mildmay and Hurdles courses: Good, good to soft in places (watered) National course: Good to soft, good in places (watered) Other Information: Dry overnight. 3-5mm of irrigation applied to Mildmay course overnight with selective watering on National course....

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Liverpool Hurdle Result: Big Buck's wins again

News / Timeform / 12 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Connections of Big Buck's were rewarded yet again at Aintree

"The Paul Nicholls-trained nine-year-old maintained his unbeaten record over hurdles in England..."

Big Buck's created history in the BGC Partners Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree by winning his 17th successive race, breaking the modern-day jumps total of Sir Ken...

The Paul Nicholls-trained nine-year-old maintained his unbeaten record over hurdles in England, winning this Grade One event for the fourth time.

Having also won the last four renewals of the World Hurdle at Cheltenham, the Andy Stewart-owned gelding rewarded punters who took the ([1.24]) available on Betfair about the favourite.

Ruby Walsh settled the superstar in third position and he travelled well through the early stages.

When Restless Harry fell early on the second circuit and brought down Won In The Dark, followed by the fall of Smad Place, his task was made easier, should he have needed it.

Crack Away Jack travelled well to challenge but failed like so many before him and eventually trailed in well beaten in second.

said: "He seemed to be idling a little in front. Alan King's horse (Smad Place) was right behind us until unfortunately he came to grief. I was glad to see them all get up.

"We take every race as it comes and we are totally flattered by the reception he has been given by everyone here. He hasn't had an off-day since unseating in the Hennessy a few years ago.

"Undoubtedly (this win means the most), this is absolutely marvellous.

"Each win is very precious, but obviously to do 17 and go into the record books is very precious to us.

"It's been very flattering. People have been coming up for my autograph - he's more newsworthy than I am, but it's a privilege.

"Next year he'll go for the same programme and the Cleeve Hurdle as well."

Big Buck's remains around the ([2.64]) mark on Betfair for next year's World Hurdle where he will bid to land his fifth Cheltenham victory.

Get open access to Timeform data, including detailed cards for this week's Grand National meeting at Aintree, for just £2.50 a day with Timeform Race Passes.

It is hard to imagine champion trainer Gai Waterhouse has never won the Group 1 Australian Derby (Saturday, BST 06:35) on her home turf at Randwick, but that could all change this afternoon......

Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Synchronised heads a maximum field of 40 for the Grand National at Aintree on Saturday......

We caught up with Donald McCain last week to discuss his runners and riders at this week's Aintree festival...

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Shell Houston Open: Lefty to double-up again

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 28 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Phil Mickelson with the Shell Houston Open trophy after last year's win

“Sometimes a nice solid wager is staring you right in the face and you try your damndest to look elsewhere before returning to the downright obvious, and that’s what I did here for a while.”

Steve takes a look at this week's PGA Tour action from Texas, where he fancies Phil Mickelson could very well defend his title

Tournament
This will be the 65th staging of the Shell Houston Open.

Venue
Redstone GC Tournament Course, Humble, Texas

Course Details
Par 72, 7457 yards, stroke average in 2011 - 71.74

A Rees Jones design, Redstone was built to host this event and will be doing so for the seventh year in-a-row this time around. It's a long track, with water in play on ten holes. Greens are slightly larger than average and in an attempt to simulate conditions at Augusta National, home of next week's US Masters, they'll be playing very fast. Don't expect the event to be won with a final hole birdie. With water very much in play, the par 4 18th is the toughest on the course at 488 yards.

Useful Sites
Event site
Course details

TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, 8.00pm on Thursday and Friday and 6.00pm on Saturday and Sunday.

Last Five Winners
2011 - Phil Mickelson -20
2010 - Anthony Kim -12 (playoff)
2009 - Paul Casey -11
2008 - Johnson Wagner -16
2007 - Adam Scott -17

Typical Winner
Length isn't the be all and end all despite how long the track is. Although the last three winners were all ranked in the top-ten for Driving Distance for the week, two of the six champs here, Stuart Appleby and Johnson Wagner aren't renowned for their length off the tee. Driving Accuracy is absolutely irrelevant but hitting greens is imperative, as scrambling is tough here and a missed green often results in a bogey or worse.

Trading tip for the week
There will be some dramatic moves in the US Masters market this week as players perform well or flop here, and if you're nice and quick you can get yourself some nice positions ahead of the year's first major next week.

Market Leaders
Lee Westwood heads the market at [13.0] but form figures of 30-8-11-56 here don't inspire me much. Westwood's biggest strength is his accurate driving so given it really doesn't matter where you hit your tee-shots, as long as they're long and dry, he's readily dismissed.

Second favourite, Phil Mickelson, is a selection so I've dealt with him below and there are a total of five players trading below [30.0], but none of them look anywhere close to good value to me.

Selections
Sometimes a nice solid wager is staring you right in the face and you try your damndest to look elsewhere before returning to the downright obvious, and that's what I did here for a while. I didn't back Phil Mickelson from the start last year, thinking he'd be in warm-up mode for the US Masters. I think he perhaps was to start with but he soon went from warm to scintillatingly red-hot and he could very easily defend his crown. I have a sneaky feeling he might now build a record here, like he's done at Riviera.

He bumbled along at the Northern Trust Open for eight years without showing much at all. He missed the cut four times and his best finish was a tie for 15th, then all of a sudden the penny dropped in 2007 and his form figures since read 2-1-1-45-35-2. In his first three visits to Redstone, tied 23rd on his first look was the best he could muster and then last year he opened up with two rounds of 70, then bang! Weekend rounds of 63 and 65 blew the opposition aside twelve months ago and what's to say he won't pick up where he left off?

He's won the International, the Bob Hope Classic, the Tour Championship, the Greater Hartford Open, the Crowne Plaza Invitational, the Mercedes Championships, the Phoenix Open and the Northern Trust Open twice. The Tucson Open, BellSouth Classic, Buick Invitational and US Masters, have been all been won three times, and he's conquered all at the AT & T Pebble Beach on four occasions. And he's defended a title successfully five times! Can he double-up here? You bet he can.

I've also backed Stuart Appleby, who has a great event record and I've detailed my reasoning behind my other selection, Graham DeLaet, in this week's Find Me a 100 Winner column.

Shell Houston Selections:
Phil Mickelson @ [14.5]
Graham DeLaet @ [230.0]
Stuart Appleby @ [250.0]

I'll be back on Friday with my In-Play Blog.

Our man takes a detailed looked at this week's Race to Dubai event, where there's a brand new venue to ponder. Who's going to be suited to the Kyle Philips designed Verdura Golf & Spa?...

Tiger Woods wins his first official PGA Tour event for 30 months, as he makes it a magnificent seven at Bay Hill. And it's been a good week for Steve too as his pre-event [85.0] pick, Michael Hoey, wins the...

Steve looks forward to a stress-free evening, after his pre-event pick, Michael Hoey, wins the Trophee Hassan II...

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FA Cup Betting: Old guard to produce again for Chelsea

FA Cup / Frank Gregan / 17 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

They did it in midweek - can they do it again on Sunday?

"The combined age of Chelsea's four scorers on Wednesday night was about a millennium-and-a-half and it may prove fruitful to stick with the elder statesmen again."

Roberto Di Matteo has wasted no time getting Chelsea back to winning ways and that good run can continue at home to Leicester in the FA Cup, says Frank Gregan

Chelsea V Leicester City, Sunday KO 1405 Live on ESPN.Match Odds: Chelsea [1.3], Leicester [13.0], The Draw [6.2]
While the Chelsea faithful will be delighted with the start that Roberto Di Matteo has made, the away fans making the trip down from the East Midlands will be wishing that Andre Villas-Boas had been given just a few more weeks in the job. What looked like a banana skin when the draw was made now looks like a home banker thanks to Di Matteo putting his faith in the old guard and the Chelsea legends stepping up to the plate these last couple of weeks.

There's always been rumours about player power at Stamford Bridge but the caretaker manager appears to be comfortable with the input of his senior players.

John Terry is a doubt for Chelsea as is his central defensive partner David Luiz, which only strengthens the argument that Di Matteo will rest some of those that played a major part of the 120 minutes in midweek. Raul Meireles is available for selection after suspension and the midweek bench was testament to how much strength in depth the Italian has at his disposal.

Leicester have Paul Konchesky available after a three match ban but Liam Moore, Conrad Logan and Danny Drinkwater are all cup-tied.

Match Odds
This is one of those markets that can have you reaching for the defiblarator. [1.3] is short, there's no denying it but where else can you make 30% on your investment in a couple of hours? It's difficult to see any other outcome other than a home win, it's accepted that Birmingham City did the Championship proud in the last round by drawing at the Bridge but that was against a team in disarray.

Di Matteo can't have reunited the dressing room in such a short space of time. Those who were AVB's favourites and now find themselves warming the bench won't be thrilled about the change in circumstances but the important thing is the players that the Italian has placed his faith in are producing. History is not on Leicester's side, Opta points out that the Foxes have never beaten Chelsea in the FA Cup, losing all four ties and despite knocking out Premier League new boys Norwich in the last round Stamford is likely to prove to be a bridge too far for Nigel Pearson's men.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Chelsea managed 'overs' on their own on Wednesday night against the side lying fourth in Serie A and who have conceded less than a goal a game on the road in the Italian league this season. It's therefore no surprise to see 'overs' priced at a miserly [1.64]. Leicester also have goals in their camp, Opta points out that Jermaine Beckford is the joint top scorer in the FA Cup this season with five goals and has scored 14 in his last 15 FA Cup games. 'Overs' it is then, but if you don't like betting odds-on take a look at over 3.5 goals at [2.64]

To Score
The combined age of Chelsea's four scorers on Wednesday night was about a millennium-and-a-half and it may prove fruitful to stick with the elder statesmen again. Frank Lampard's goal came from the penalty spot but the timing of his late runs into the box looked spot-on once again. The selection in this market was a toss up between Didier Drogba and Lamps but the latter gets the nod because he's the main man when a spot kick is awarded. He's also likely to be a much better price at [2.3] compared to Drogba who will be in the region of [1.9]. If you were impressed by the Opta fact relating to Jermaine Beckford's FA Cup goalscoring record you should consider the [5.5] that should be attainable for him to score at any time during the match.

Chelsea win Both Halves
Those of you that have a fancy for Chelsea but are trying to keep off the blood pressure pills might find this a more relaxing market. The [2.5] that should be available looks a very tempting proposistion.

Recommended Bets
Back Frank Lampard to score at [2.3]
Back over 2.5 goals at [1.64]

After an impressive performance in midweek and some high-scoring cup games at Anfield, Mike Norman firmly believes Liverpool will beat Stoke on Sunday, and probably without conceding a goal....

Gareth Purnell trains his punting sights on Everton's Saturday lunchtime test at home to Sunderland, and he believes goals will be at a premium......

A thoroughly professional performance is expected from Tottenham when they host Bolton in the early-evening kick-off. The Trotters will battle hard, but home advantage means Spurs will get the job done....

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Home And Away: Clean sheet specialists Brescia to win again

Daily Tipping / Jonno Turner / 05 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Swiss left back Fabio Daprela forms part of Brescia's formidable backline

Jonno Turner is backing Brescia and 1860 Munich to prevail in second-tier action on the continent this evening...

It's that time of the week again where we look to turn this miserable Monday into a money-making one, and we are focussing on the 2. Bundesliga for our first tip, as 1860 Munich welcome St Pauli to the Allianz Arena.

The hosts have been going well this season, and are a particularly formidable outfit on their own patch, where they have won their last four consecutive league outings - and in some style, too.

Nine goals scored - and just two conceded - in that time has lifted Reiner Maurer's side to sixth in the table, and they will be keen to ramp up the pressure on the top five with a win against fifth-placed St Pauli in this one.

The visitors have enjoyed some excellent results so far this campaign, and an autumn mini run of four straight wins away from home saw them secure their status at the right end of the table, but Andre Schubert's side have suffered with a bit of travel sickness of late, and go into this tie having won just one of their last four on the road.

Der Freibeuter are still in a great position as we reach the business end of the season, but just three wins in their last seven league games indicate that the wheels could be coming off down at the Millerntor Stadion, and the pressure is on Schubert's men to avoid a defeat in this tie.

1860 Munich have won their last eight home games against St Pauli, and I think that - all things considered - this one has home win written all over it.

Bet 1: 1860 Munich (HOME) to win @ [2.5]

Over to Italy now, where struggling Gubbio will be aiming to earn just their second win in seven as they host in-form Brescia at the Stadio Pietro Barbetti.

Il Lupi have struggled in their first season back in Serie B for 64 years, and coach Luigi Simoni has seen his side lose four of their last six league games.

The hosts have been saved by their home form this campaign, but even that is beginning to waiver now, and just three wins from seven in front of their fans has seen the Umbrians fall to 18th in the table, a relegation play-out place.

Brescia, meanwhile, travel to Umbria on an unbeaten trot of nine games, in which they have won seven and drawn two.

And Alessandro Calori's side have one of the best away records in the league, without a loss in six away from the Stadio Mario Rigamonti, they have won their last four on their travels.

Much of the visitors' strength lies in their excellent defensive quality, and they have not conceded a single goal in a whopping nine games. That's over 810 minutes without a breach, an impressive stat at any level.

A win for Calori's side will put them back in touch with the play-offs, and I think that they'll do the business in Umbria this evening.

Bet 2: Brescia (AWAY) to win @ [2.68]

Levante welcome Real Betis to town in tonight's La Liga offering over in Spain. The odds suggest it will be a low scoring affair but the home side's last three matches have seen 17 goals fly in. Paul Robinson talks...

The Inside Man brings another blast of over/under 2.5 goal bets - three from England and one from Germany - and he's predicting an entertaining affair at Craven Cottage...

Two of the Championship's promotion hopefuls collide to begin a huge weekend in the division, and Jonno Turner is backing Hull to outshine Blackpool......

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Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich Bets: Heynckes's boys underpriced again

German Football / Soccer Widow / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Underperformers. Neither Franck Ribery nor Arjen Robben have been at their best this season.

"Of its last 25 Bundesliga away games, Bayern has won only 40% and this season alone is not much better at only a 45% win ratio. Whoever identified this trend early and decided to lay Bayern away from home on a regular basis, has definitely cashed in."

Soccer Widow explains why the stats suggest Bayern Munich carry on being a false price on their travels and why their layers have been having one field day after another. This is a big match right here and it's thrown up another false price on a Bayern clean sheet.

Although Bayern goes into this match looking for its 900th victory in Bundesliga 1, the German press continues to produce copious amounts of copy analysing the Bavarian team's so called 'away curse', which has seen the team's performances on the road deteriorate significantly.

Of its last 25 Bundesliga away games, Bayern has won only 40% and this season alone is not much better at only a 45% win ratio. Whoever identified this trend early and decided to lay Bayern away from home on a regular basis, has definitely cashed in, especially as Bayern's reputation usually sees its odds in away matches vastly under-priced and, therefore, a very attractive lay proposition.

Bayern's season has been blighted with behind-the-scenes turmoil, a change of manager, and injuries to key players, with midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger again missing for Saturday's match. When he plays, Bayern looks composed, but when he is absent, there is definite fragility in the team.

For all of their apparent shortcomings, Bayern do sit in 2nd place in the league table and will play a newly resurgent Leverkusen team up to the lofty heights of 5th, following back-to-back victories. The talking point of this match is of course the fact that Bayern's new manager, Jupp Heynckes, was tempted away from Leverkusen but this should have no real effect on the usual ice-cold mentality of German teams in general and their mature and professional attitude towards big occasions.

Statistics related to the final value bet recommendations:

Head-to-Head (Leverkusen home, Bayern Munich away, 14 matches since 1998, in all competitions):

•Full time: four Leverkusen wins (28.6%); three draws (21.4%); seven Bayern wins (50%)
•Full time: last six results (most recent first): D-D-H-A-A-A
•Bayern Munich Clean Sheet: twice (21.4%)
•Over 1.5 Goals: 12 times (85.7%)
•Goal numbers in the last six of these fixtures (most recent first): 2-2-6-2-1-5

Bayer Leverkusen's last 25 Bundesliga 1 home games:

•Full time: 13 wins (52%); seven draws (28%); five defeats (20%)
•Full time: last six results (most recent first): H-D-H-A-H-D
•Away team clean sheet: four times (16%)
•Over 1.5 Goals: 21 times (84%)
•Goal numbers in the last six home matches (most recent first): 5-4-5-3-2-4
Bayern Munich's last 25 Bundesliga 1 away games:
•Full time: 10 wins (40%); nine draws (36%); six defeats (24%)
•Full time: last six results (most recent first): D-D-H-A-H-A
•Bayern Munich clean sheet: six times (24%)
•Over 1.5 Goals: 21 times (84%)
•Goal numbers in the last six matches (most recent first): 0-2-4-3-5-3

Summary:

Although Bayern have not lost to Leverkusen in their last 14 Bundesliga encounters (comprising 11 wins and three draws), Leverkusen's last victory against Germany's most celebrated team was not so long ago. In March 2009, Bayern lost 2:4 to Leverkusen in the DFB-Pokal quarter final in Düsseldorf. Taking the head-to-head performance as well as the last 25 matches into consideration, statistically speaking, Leverkusen's chances of winning this match are not so bad and, the price of the home win holds a mathematical advantage or 'edge'.

How the market arrived at odds of [3.05] for laying 'Bayern Clean Sheet' is a mystery to me as the statistics show Leverkusen is not short of goals at home and Bayern is always vulnerable to concede away from home. The market odds are therefore around 58% below their mathematical value, which represents a great lay bet.

Other Betting recommendations with good value:

•Back Leverkusen to win (odds: [5.0], 'true odds': 3.0, value 40%, probability: 33.3%)

•Back 'Over 1.5 Goals' (odds: [1.28], true odds: 1.18, value 50%, probability: 85%)

Borussia Monchengladbach's improbable bid for the Bundesliga title stuttered against Hamburg, but Kevin Hatchard's backing them to return to winning ways this weekend....

Crisis club Hertha Berlin have turned to a German coaching legend in their bid to avoid relegation, and Kevin Hatchard expects him to make an instant impact....

Bayern Munich are facing another season without a league title says Ben Lyttleton, and discontent within the camp might just hinder their Champions League aspirations also....

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Course specialist Pasco to go well again at Newbury on Saturday?

News / Timeform / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Newbury Racecourse

"Warner reported how they have had to wait for better going for Pasco..."

Owner Terry Warner is hoping Pasco's affinity for the Berkshire track will stand him in good stead in Saturday's two-and-a-half-mile handicap chase due off at 15:10...

Swiss-bred Pasco, rated 140 over fences by Timeform but also having a 'squiggle' (indicates suspect temperament), has won three times at Newbury and also finished runner-up to Big Fella Thanks and Mount Oscar in course-and-distance handicaps since March 2010.

The roan nine-year-old, trained by Betfair columnist Paul Nicholls, has not won since taking a Huntingdon novice chase in February 2009 but has been in the frame on all of his last seven completed starts.

However, Pasco was off the track for 10 months prior to returning this winter (had breathing op in interim) and when it's considered that the better of his two efforts was when last of four to Time For Rupert in three-mile a minor event at Newbury, it's clear that he's going to have to bounce back to his best to be competitive.

Warner reported how they have had to wait for better going for Pasco and that he is a lightly-raced horse, presumably owing to physical problems that have meant he has been hard to train.

Mad Max is another horse that goes well at Newbury, though his trio of wins were in a pair of bumpers and over hurdles when he was trained by Nicky Henderson.

Now in the care of Neil Mulholland, the 10-year-old, who's career has been plagued by wind problems, was well below form when third to Giorgio Quercus at Haydock on his first outing since the stable switch.

While his new trainer believes the the track and the good ground will suit him, he looks up against it.

Timeform top-rated is Fine Parchment, winner of the race 12 months ago, and his trainer Charlie Mann is confident the 138-rated chaser can follow up though admitting that the horse had felt pretty sorry for himself for a while after getting stuck in the mud on Aintree in December.

Of the others, Gary Moore feels Fix The Rib would prefer to go right-handed, Henry Daly is saddling Pickamus as he's not guaranteed to get in at Cheltenham, and Jo Davis believes Passato has got plenty on his plate.

Alan King has expressed how Araldur is the biggest horse is his yard and, therefore, will enjoy the course at Newbury better than he did the undulations at Cheltenham.

Full betting for the is now available for the Barbury International Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase by clicking HERE.

....................
Timeform ratings were in great form last Saturday! Among 5 top-rated winners at Kempton was Nacarat (BSP [5.58]). Click HERE for today's cards & ratings.

Likeable 14-year-old Hello Bud bids to roll back the year's in the staying veterans' chase at Newbury on Saturday and put himself under consideration for the Grand National at Aintree on April 14......

Grand National hope Backstage is injured and out for the rest of the season......

Timeform look ahead to a weekend featuring a number of Grand National hopefuls running at Newbury and Kelso on Saturday, as well as quality Irish and International action on Sunday......

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Weekend Review: Nacarat lands the Kempton spoils again

News / Timeform / 27 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Nacarat regained the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton.

"The grey, who was also successful in 2009 and has finished in the placings on two other occasions, looked as good as ever on Saturday, running to a Timeform rating only 1 lb inferior to his career-best."

Timeform review a weekend featuring a win for Nacarat in the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton alongside a whole host of Cheltenham pointers...

The Tom George-trained Nacarat added to his fantastic record in the three-mile handicap when beating Hector's Choice by 11 lengths. The grey, who was also successful in 2009 and has finished in the placings on two other occasions, looked as good as ever on Saturday, running to a Timeform rating only 1 lb inferior to his career-best. His trainer has stated that a defence of his Aintree Bowl crown is his target, and with him having a good record there and likely to be granted good ground, who's to say he can't follow up.

The Triumph Hurdle market took on a more defined shape on Saturday and, with the defeat of Minsk and his subsequent removal from the picture owing to a throat infection, it was left to Baby Mix and Grumeti to highlight their claims.

The former made a deeply promising British debut, comfortably beating Hinterland at Cheltenham, but disappointed back at that venue last month when failing to settle and looking awkward under pressure. However, he got back on track in winning the Adonis with just about as good a performance as has been seen in a juvenile hurdle this winter, jumping well and quickening decisively. The quirks shown on his penultimate start were again shown to some extent though and they'd be the main concern with regard to his Festival prospects.

Grumeti landed the Grade 2 Dovecote Hurdle later on the card, a race more slowly run than the earlier contest and resulting in a victory more about style than substance. His jumping was very slick and his acceleration impressive, his experience clearly an advantage against a pair of hurdling newcomers.

Grumeti is right up with the pick of the four-year-old hurdlers and merits serious consideration for the Triumph, presently heading the market at [6.2], whilst Baby Mix can be backed at [8.0].

Another name to bear in mind for the future is the Paul Nicholls-trained Dodging Bullets, runner-up to Grumeti on what was his hurdling debut. He was useful on the Flat, beating subsequent Grade 1 winning hurdler Hisaabaat on his last start, and made a highly promising start to life over timber. Given his inexperience he may now head to Aintree rather than Cheltenham, and he looks sure to win good races.

Cristal Bonus, also trained by Paul Nicholls, landed the Grade 2 Pendil Novices' Chase in impressive style, beating Duke of Lucca by 13 lengths. It is disappointing that his two main market rivals, Zaynar and Minella Class, failed to complete, somewhat weakening the form, but Cristal Bonus has certainly made a bright start over fences with his jumping looking fluent both on Saturday and when winning at Chepstow last month.

He has a host of Cheltenham entries, including the Arkle and the RSA, but the betting would suggest that the Jewson is his most likely target with him currently second-best in the market at [6.6].

The remarkably progressive Hunt Ball continued his upward curve when successful for the sixth time in his last seven races, winning of a BHA mark of 127 having begun his winning sequence on a mark of just 69. His progress shows no signs of abating and he will warrant respect in valuable handicaps from now on, currently heading the Byrne Group Plate market at [11.5].

Newcastle's feature event was the Eider Chase, with the 2012 renewal going the way of Portrait King, trained in Ireland by Maurice Phelan. The seven-year-old was successful at Punchestown on his previous outing, looking one to follow in marathon handicaps, and he duly confirmed that impression when beating Posh Bird by three lengths.

A final mention on Saturday goes to Aldermoor, who won a competitive Sprint Series Final at Lingfield. The participants had all been putting up good displays in the various rounds of the series, meaning there is every reason for the form tp prove solid, but it was Aldermoor that sealed the win in a first-time visor for trainer Stuart Williams.

Moving on to Sunday, which saw Fontwell host the Grade 2 National Spirit hurdle over two and a half miles. Trainer Colin Tizzard has been in excellent form of late, going at a 24% strike rate this month, and Third Intention bolstered that statistic when landing the feature. The five-year-old was not seen to best effect in the Betfair Hurdle, held-up in a slowly run race, but the step up in trip and the first-time tongue-tie may have been the catalyst for improvement.

Barbers Shop, prominent in the betting for the Gold Cup in 2009 and Ryanair in 2010, continued his resurgence in hunter chases at Fontwell, having previously won on his debut in the sphere at Fakenham. Seeing him travel and jump with enthusiasm again is a definite positive and, although he was pushed to within half a length by runner-up Merry Vic, he is still prominent in the Foxhunter Chase betting at [15.5].

Union Rags, and arguably unlucky runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November, got his three-year-old campaign off to a winning start when comfortably landing the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park in North America. Clearly impressive in victory, he now heads the market for the Kentucky Derby at [4.2].

There was excellent racing in Ireland over the weekend, at Fairyhouse on Saturday and Naas on Sunday. Prince de Beauchene cemented his position at the head of the Grand National betting, with Seabass also highlighting his claims for that race, whilst Rathlin and Felix Yonger were also impressive in victory.

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Timeform ratings are in fine form! Among 5 top-rated winners at Kempton on Saturday was Nacarat (BSP [5.58]). Click HERE for today's cards & ratings.

With opposition to reigning champion Quevega thin on the ground, Emma Lavelle is keen to run Kentford Grey Lady in the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle at Cheltenham......

Union Rags has shortened markedly in the ante-post betting for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 5, following his authoritative success in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Sunday....

Kauto Star is reported to be in tremendous shape ahead of his bid for a third Cheltenham Gold Cup success on Friday February 16....

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US Politics Betting: Will money-buyers get burnt again in Michigan?

US Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 26 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mitt Romney seems to be the Republican front runner purely because of a lack of decent opposition

"Indeed, Romney's problem remains an almost total lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy, owing his front-runner status to the weaknesses of others."

All the latest on the US presidential election race, including why Mitt Romney has got himself into a bit of a pickle over the past few weeks and is worth taking on at very short odds-on for the Michigan primary.

With the Republican race approaching what could be a decisive phase, punters will be keeping a close eye on two pivotal primaries this Tuesday, in Michigan and Arizona. Mitt Romney remains just [1.32] to win his party's nomination, and no better than [1.2] for either primary, but the market has already proved an unreliable guide. After Romney was turned over at [1.01] in Colorado, money-buying seems either very brave or very stupid.

It feels like we've been here before. Prior to the Florida contest, Romney's principal opponent gathered a head of steam and went favourite for the primary. Then, Newt Gingrich met his opponent's wall of well-financed attack-ads and after a lacklustre performance in the TV debates, Romney won comfortably. With Gingrich wounded, Rick Santorum became the new anti-Romney, delivering a devastating trio of defeats in the latest round of contests. However, Santorum's star has somewhat waned in the past week after his extreme social-conservative agenda came under the microscope. The former Pennsylvania Senator struggled in last week's CNN debate in Arizona, prompting polls to shift back towards Romney.

That may not, however, be the final story. Santorum may have more staying power than Gingrich, and critically, a more enthusiastic bedrock of support. Whereas Gingrich was always going to encounter troubles defending his chequered history, the case against Santorum is less clear-cut in electoral terms. The Republican hierachy fear Santorum's extreme views on contraception, abortion and the existence of Satan will make him a dream opponent for President Obama, but that doesn't necessarily apply to the Republican base. Santorum has out-performed polling expectations so far because the party's Christian base turned out for him. Although Romney's lead in Michigan has increased to 6%, differential turnout could reduce it. The fact this bitter race is increasingly turning off voters, hardly helps the favourite's cause.

Indeed, Romney's problem remains an almost total lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy, owing his front-runner status to the weaknesses of others. The significant anti-Romney faction has tried out one alternative after another, only to see Herman Cain, Rick Perry and then Gingrich falter under scrutiny. Even his core brand - as the candidate most likely to beat Obama - is disintegrating. Recent polls show the President comfortably ahead of all the Republican candidates, with Romney's numbers almost identical to those of Santorum. Presented with a choice between two candidates that are equally likely to lose in November, Republicans may prefer the one they agree most with, irrespective of mainstream opinion. Although he's slipped since last week's debate, a previous national head-to-head poll measuring Santorum 21% ahead of Romney, must have alarmed favourite backers.

It also alarmed Republican opinion-formers, who have started openly touting the prospect of a 'white knight' candidate. So long as the race remains divisive and likely headed for a 'brokered convention', the likes of Jeb Bush and Mitch Daniels cannot be entirely ruled out. Indeed after ABC reported a prominent Senator advocating a third President Bush, the Florida Governor was backed into just [10.5] for the nomination. Bush himself did nothing to quell the speculation by criticising the candidates for "appealing to people's fears and emotions."

Romney urgently needs a couple of resounding victories to keep the Santorum challenge at bay and dismiss this speculation. Arizona has long been regarded a 'banker' for him, but Michigan is less straightforward. Despite this being his home state, where his father was Governor, Romney's eltiist image seems a liability here. When he jokes about his wife's multiple Cadillac-ownership, it goes down about as well in austerity-hit Michigan as his $10,000 bet challenge to Rick Perry, or his lack of empathy with the poor. Even worse was his criticism of Obama's popular bailout of Detroit-based General Motors.

Santorum is hardly in touch with the average Michigan voter either, but he will at least be able to count on support from a sizeable evangelical community in the state. If the empty seats for Romney's hometown rally last week were anything to go by, he's going to have trouble getting his vote out. After what happened in Colorado, it must be worth risking a few pennies laying the favourite at very short odds-on again.

Recommended bet

Lay Mitt Romney for Michigan Primary @ [1.3]

More drama from the US as social conservative candidate pulls off shock hat-trick and Romney backers get burnt. Paul Krishnamurty explains what it all means for the race and the markets......

Republican Nomination is Romney's to lose as the market favourite bounces back from South Carolina with massive Florida victory...

Even if Mitt Romney does manage to win the Republican Party nomination, his battle with Newt Gingrich and other rivals may have irreparably damaged his chances of becoming President, says Paul Krishnamurty....

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Timeform Radio Tip: Oasis Dancer to be dominant again

Timeform Radio Tip / Terry Norman / 25 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Lingfield is the venue for today's first bet

Two bets courtesy of Terry Norman on a busy day of racing....

Such was the domination of Oasis Dancer on her last success at Lingfield it's hard to look beyond him for the Listed event at the track at 14.50.

Ralph Beckett's colt has looked much improved since Beckett took the decision to drop her back to 6f.

The daughter of Oasis Dream routed his field on her last outing. Because that was a handicap and this is a listed race, he actually meets Fratellino, Capone and Googlette on better terms, even though she beat them easily.

Therefore, the main challenge is likely to come from rejuvenated Palace Moon. A wind operation has transformed the seven-year-old and he barely came off the bridle when winning a shade cosily last time from Novellen Lad over course and distance.

Either would be a short price if the other was absent but I believe that Oasis Dream still has untapped potential whereas Palace Moon's last performance - his best for a while - still leaves him with a bit to find with a colt that could easily make the step up to Group 3 class next.

Sometimes you look at a race and a horse jumps off the page at you. You then try and find a reason to oppose it because you really fancy it (sic) and then decide it should be one of the best bets of the day!

Spiekeroog (14.55 Newcastle) looks to have been let in this handicap off a very lenient mark (BHA 118) and the form book backs up this argument. The selection looked to have won a shade cosily when, after travelling well throughout, he held off Bourne by a head. The second has since won the valuable Betfair handicap at Ascot.

Previously, David O'Meara's son of Lomitas had finished second to Vulcanite (a fancy for the Supreme Novices'), and the three that finished in front of him at Doncaster - Open Hearted, Ile de Re and Cross Of Honour - have since won five races between them.

There is likely to be a strong pace with Palawi in the field (helpful for the hard-pulling Spiekeroog) and any drying of the ground would also be helpful for a horse that could laugh at his handicap mark at the first time of asking.

Back Oasis Dancer (14.50 Lingfield) @ [2.74]
Back Spiekeroog (14.55 Newcastle) @ [3.25]

Rory Delargy joins Tim Peters on Timeform Radio for racing at Lingfield, Warwick and Sandown, and he outlines his idea of the day's best bets below......

Timeform's Jumps Editor Dan Barber sticks to what he knows best - whilst also strongly recommending everyone pays close attention to Dubai expert Stephen Molyneux's Smartplays for bets on today's Meydan card - on a busy Thursday afternoon....

David Cleary makes the case for a pair of promising runners on Wednesday afternoon......

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