Showing posts with label Lefty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lefty. Show all posts
August 31, 2013
April 8, 2012
The Punter's In-Play Blog: Hanson and Lefty in charge
US Masters 
/ Steven Rawlings / 08 April 2012 / 3 Comments 
Peter Hanson – Can he handle the heat?
“Peter Hanson tends to get very nervous in-contention and I think the enormity of the task will take its toll.”
With just one round to go at Augusta National, nine players appear to hold a chance to win the year's first major. Steve Rawlings profiles each of the Masters hopefuls
10:45 - April 8, 2012
On a day when just seven players broke 70, Peter Hanson and Phil Mickelson have seemingly put themselves in command after moving day. Rounds of 65 and 66 respectfully have thrust them to the top of the leaderboard and given 18 of the last 20 winners have been in the final pairing on Sunday it may be futile to look beyond them with a round to go.
If the top two do fail we can perhaps go down as far as the four players tied for sixth but it's hard to envisage anyone else having a chance. Here's a look at those that can still win the 2012 US Masters with prices to back as at 10.40am.
Peter Hanson -9 [5.4]
With four wins from five when he's held a third round lead, the stats would suggest the Swede has every chance of converting but stats can be deceiving. He actually tends to get very nervous in-contention and I think the enormity of the task will take its toll. Paul Krishnamurty advocates laying players in the Top 5 Finish market in his in-running trading guide here and I wouldn't put anyone off laying Hanson now at around the [1.5] mark.
Phil Mickelson -8 [2.76]
With three green jackets in the last eight years already, Lefty is most definitely the man to beat. I will look to lay back some of my pre-event wager at some point, should I get the chance, but he's too big to do so now.
Louis Oosthuizen -7 [7.0]
Already a major winner, having won the Open Championship in 2010, Louis will be looking to become the third South African to win the event in five years. He has the class and is in incredible form but he led by two last week at the Shell Houston Open with a round to go before melting like an Easter egg on a radiator. I can't see his nerves holding out here.
Bubba Watson -6 [10.5]
Bubba didn't make my portfolio because he came into the event putting deplorably and given that after three rounds the front three on the leaderboard rank first second and third for putting on the week, I was right to dismiss poor putters, but Bubba's found something from somewhere. He's ranked 20th for putting at present and if the flat-stick behaves itself, Watson could be the one to put it up to the leaders.
Matt Kuchar -5 [20.0]
A birdie at the final hole salvaged something from a poor back-nine performance yesterday, after he'd put himself right in the mix with a three-under par front-nine. He's not a player I like to back as, again, he too gets very nervous and I can't help but think his chance has gone.
Lee Westwood -4 [22.0]
The Worksop Wonder has slowly drifted away after leading on day one and without doubt the putter is to blame. He missed one from inside a foot yesterday and you don't win this event putting like that. I'm surprised he's shorter than Hunter Mahan and he wouldn't be for me.
Hunter Mahan -4 [27.0]
Hunter was impressive last Sunday when he finished off the Shell Houston in style. A major title is the next step for the world's highest ranked American and he won't feel as though he has anything to lose starting the day five back.
Padraig Harrington -4 [38.0]
Putting advice from Bernard Langer appears to have paid off for the triple major winner and he could be dangerous. Not afraid of performing on the biggest of stages, Padraig is a reasonable price and he shouldn't be nearly twice the price of Westwood.
Henrik Stenson-4 [44.0]
Stenson's likely to rue making eight on the last on Thursday for many a day to come. It's great to see the likable Swede back in form but it's hard to envisage him winning. There'll be a mistake or two along the way today I'm sure and given the size of the gap that needs bridging, he can't afford any.
The remainder are -3 or worse and [190.0] and bigger and I'd be very surprised if the winner doesn't come from those listed above.
Don't forget to have a few pounds on Yes in the Hole-in-One market before plays starts if you want a fun wager at a sporting price. Enjoy what's bound to be a fantastic evening's entertainment, good luck, and I'll be back tomorrow with my US Masters De-brief.
10:05 - April 7, 2012
Twelve months ago we witnessed one of the tightest, most spectacular finales in US Masters history, with eight players hitting the front at one stage or another during the final round. We could be heading for something very similar this time around, in fact, it could be an even more dramatic finish if the leading pack stays intact. With fully thirty players within five of the lead at halfway, surely another exciting Sunday is on the cards? I'm not so sure...
I'm delighted that I haven't got too involved in-running so far and I'm not in a desperate rush to change that stance. This looks very hard to call, and besides, after his superb four-under par second round 68, my main pick, Phil Mickelson, has played himself right back into it. He's now on -2 and just three off the lead.
In stark contrast to Lefty, Tiger Woods appears to have played his way out of the event. The star attraction of last night's live coverage was quite frankly awful. It wasn't easy for the latter starters with play painfully slow (Tiger's group took nearly six hours to get round)and everyone seemed to be struggling as the shadows lengthened and the temperature dropped but pre-event favourite Tiger was really poor.
His game looked in total disarray and although it's always dangerous to dismiss a class-act like Woods, eight off the lead and with 39 players in front of him, I don't like his chances one iota.
Jason Dufner and 52 year-old Freddie 'Boom Boom' Couples, one of Paul Krishnamurty's Find Me a 100 Winner picks, are tied for the lead on -5, with a pack of five top-class contenders, including Rory McIlroy, who now heads the market at [4.4], one back.
Although jam-packed at present, I fancy the leaderboard will thin out considerably tonight and I can see it looking very differently tomorrow. Nine players broke 70 on day one and only five managed it yesterday, and I can't imagine that trend will reverse as the course dries out. If you're lucky enough to have a pick in the leading pack right now, don't get frustrated if they don't start with a rash of birdies later. Tonight could well be a grind and anyone capable of breaking par on moving day will prosper greatly.
Of the first three in the betting at present, Rory could cut out the mistakes and outclass them all, Lee Westwood could start dropping a few more putts, or Lefty (who currently tops the putting stats) could start finding more fairways and greens but it's impossible to call and I'm happy to carry on waiting. I really wish I could say I fancied player x or player y strongly at halfway but the fact of the matter is I don't and I'm continuing with the cautious stance.
Bar for a couple of small top-up wagers on Ben Crane and Y.E Yang, at [120.0] and [150.0] respectfully, I'm keeping my powder dry for now, with a view to trading as the third round progresses. I will be keeping an eye on those players three and four off the lead as they come to the birdie holes on the back nine. Anyone on level or better for the day on the 13th tee could be about to make a huge move.
I'll be back in the morning with another look, when things will hopefully look a bit easier.
01:25 - April 6, 2012
Can we start again please?
Waiting for the Masters feels like waiting for Christmas when you're a kid - the anticipation is simply magical. And to carry the analogy forward, there was a point in time yesterday whereby my selections were doing so poorly, that it felt as though Santa had not only failed to deliver any new toys, he'd broken in and stolen the old ones! It's not been a great start for yours truly but at least the tournament's still on track...
The forecast suggested we might get delays but the thunderstorms failed to materialise and at the end of day one, and mercifully round one, Lee Westwood holds sway on -5 after a superb opening round of 67, which had he putted slightly better (the usual story with Lee) could have been a few shots better.
The big two, Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy, had contrasting ends to their lacklustre opening rounds. Tiger Woods bogeyed the last two holes to finish on level par and Rory birdied them to finish on -1.
My two shortest priced picks were very disappointing to say the least. Phil Mickelson bogeyed the 9th to go over par and then lost his ball off the tee on the 10th before going on to record a three-over par seven! In a flash he was four-over and his chance looked gone. To his credit, he rallied and his birdie on the last leaves him on +2. You pay your money and you take your chance with Lefty - he's boom or bust and I've no regrets about backing him but I'm cross with myself for backing Luke Donald, who finished the day on +3.
I knew his first round record was poor here and what I really should have done was wait. Oh well, it's no use crying over spilt milk.
Of the rest of my pre-event picks, Miguel Angel Jimenez has done me proud (shooting -3) and Angel Cabrera did ok, finishing on -1, but the rest were dire.
I've had just one in-running punt so far, throwing a few pounds at my old mate Ben Crane at [80.0], who sits on -3. Other than that, I'm going to hang fire for now. It looks fascinatingly poised and it will be interesting to see how the likes of Woods, McIlroy and even Lefty respond to being so far behind but whatever they do, it could all be futile if you believe in the power of the bib!
Apparently, on the last three occasions that the Masters has ended on Easter Sunday, the winner's caddy has worn bib number 53. And that's the number Westwood's caddy Billy Foster has drawn this week. Could it be an omen?
I'll be back later today if I get further involved before play kicks off but I think I'm going to wait until the second round is well underway. There are so many imponderables still and I want to wait until the stagger unwinds and the field thins out somewhat. After such a bad start I could easily force things and get myself into a right mess.
There's a whole host of drama to come at Augusta and Paul Krishnamurty has picked out a variety of ways to keep you that little bit more interested in the Augusta action with these four bets......
Phil Mickelson is a [2.72] shot to win the Masters for a fourth time, ahead of third round leader Peter Hanson and 2010 Open champion Louis Oosthuizen....
An intriguing Masters leaderboard awaits us this morning with any one of 30 players in with a chance of winning the tournament. Saturday is traditionally classed as moving day so who does Paul Krishnamurty expect to be rising up the...
March 30, 2012
The Punter's In-Play Blog: Lefty still in the mix
The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Phil Mickelson - Bang there in Houston
“I’ve been closely monitoring my pre-event pick, Phil Mickelson, since he started playing today at 1.30pm and I’ve just about had enough for one day. It’s been worth the effort though.”
It's been a long day for the players in Houston and it's been a long day for Steve too, but has it been a good one?
22:05 - March 30, 2012
It's been a long, boring and tiring day spent almost entirely tied to the laptop but it's been worth the effort.
I started out this morning with three pre-event picks in fair positions after day one of the Sicily Open. Day two ended with precisely no pre-event picks in-contention. Not that I'm moaning. It just goes to show how fickle this game is. In stark contrast, after day one in Morocco last week I thought I was out of the game completely, yet Michael Hoey recovered from a seemingly impossible position to win the event - swings and roundabouts and all that.
We've reached halfway in Sicily now and I've just about conceded defeat, for now anyway. With six players tied for the lead on -8, seven a shot back in a tie for 7th and a full dozen sitting on -6, it's nigh on impossible and discretion looks likely to be the better part of valour - though I have had a couple of very small in-running wagers. I've had small win bets on both Garth Mulroy and Richard Green. Both players are amongst the group on -7.
At the Shell Houston Open I've been closely monitoring my pre-event pick, Phil Mickelson, since he started playing today at 1.30pm. He came back to finish off round one, which he did very well, and now he's finishing up round two and I've just about had enough for one day. It's been worth the effort though.
Lefty tied for the lead after round one and although, like me, he appears to be running out of steam for the day now, he's still right up there and I've managed to lay back my stake on him at an average of [3.80], which was pretty decent considering the lowest he's been matched at is [3.25], and for money of any sort of note, [3.45].
I've also added Louis Oosthuizen now, who's just hit the front on -11. At [10.5], I haven't got a great price considering I've been watching him move menacingly into the mix for the last couple of hours. I've sort of been hoping he'd go away but I eventually came to the conclusion he wasn't going to. Of course, he probably will now!
Play should go on until the small hours (UK time) but I'm going to call it a day now, I'm shattered. I'll have another look in the morning and see where I stand. Keep going Phil, even if I can't!
14.55 - March 30, 2012
Phil Mickelson is making a nice early move at the Shell Houston Open. He's now four-under par through eight holes and his price for next week's US Masters might just be about to go.
If you were intending to back Lefty for a fourth win at Augusta, now might be the time to do so.
12:05 - March 30, 2012
You really do have to laugh. Guess who bogeyed two holes straight after I'd written "Another of my picks, Scott Jamieson has just started out in round two on -4 and I'd like to think he can get involved (that's him jinxed then!) but we'll see."
11:55 - March 30, 2012
I'll start with events across the pond first, where play was suspended thanks to some pretty nasty weather. Thunder stopped play at around 1.30pm (7.30pm UK time) and flooded fairways following heavy rain prevented any further action.
Only one of my three picks managed to get finished and that was Stuart Appleby, who shot +2. Graham DeLaet has been most unlucky; he has to set his alarm to return to the track early, at 7.30am (1.30pm UK time) to negotiate a three foot par putt on the 9th, his final hole of round one. At least he's on a decent score though, should he tap that in, he'll be just two out of the lead - set jointly by Carl Pettersson and Angel Cabrera, who both shot -7.
My only other pick, Phil Mickelson, has only played three holes so far but at least he's under par having birdied the 1st. It's going to be a long day for those that started yesterday afternoon, or were due to. Nine groups haven't even started round one yet and a couple of groups have only just teed off.
There's a distinct possibility that those that have finished round one already, won't play at all today and they may have had a bit of a result. The organisers are going to be hard-pressed to get this finished on time now. With the US Masters starting on Thursday, the plan remains to get the event done and dusted by 5.00pm on Sunday so the players can get to Augusta in good time. They won't want anymore interruptions.
It's been a curious start to the Sicily Open where, with the wind switching and the weather warming, the afternoon starters shot an average of 1.3 strokes less than the morning guys on day one. Then, for much of this morning, playing in what appear benign conditions, nobody seems to be kicking on.
Day one ended with Peter Lawrie in front on -8, one ahead of Jamie Donaldson, Soren Kjeldsen and Tano Goya and as I write, the first of the morning starters are ending their rounds and the lead is still only -8.
The best of my picks so far is James Morrison, who was on -7 when the coverage ended last night before he bogeyed the last and then this morning, he's only level par for round two so far. That's more than a little disappointing but at least he traded short enough to reach the first lay-back target set in the Find Me a 100 Winner column. Albeit only just.
Another of my picks, Scott Jamieson has just started out in round two on -4 and I'd like to think he can get involved (that's him jinxed then!) but we'll see. It's going to be a busy day, so I'll probably post again at some point.
In-Play bets
Richard Green @ [16.0]
Garth Mulroy @ [38.0]
Shell Houston Pre-Event Selections:
Phil Mickelson @ [14.5]
Graham DeLaet @ [230.0]
Stuart Appleby @ [250.0]
In-Play bets
Layed Phil Mickelson @ [3.80]
Louis Oosthuizen @ [10.5]
Steve takes a look at this week's PGA Tour action from Texas, where he fancies Phil Mickelson could very well defend his title...
Our man takes a detailed looked at this week's Race to Dubai event, where there's a brand new venue to ponder. Who's going to be suited to the Kyle Philips designed Verdura Golf & Spa?...
Tiger Woods wins his first official PGA Tour event for 30 months, as he makes it a magnificent seven at Bay Hill. And it's been a good week for Steve too as his pre-event [85.0] pick, Michael Hoey, wins the...
March 28, 2012
Shell Houston Open: Lefty to double-up again
The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 28 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Phil Mickelson with the Shell Houston Open trophy after last year's win
“Sometimes a nice solid wager is staring you right in the face and you try your damndest to look elsewhere before returning to the downright obvious, and that’s what I did here for a while.”
Steve takes a look at this week's PGA Tour action from Texas, where he fancies Phil Mickelson could very well defend his title
Tournament
This will be the 65th staging of the Shell Houston Open.
Venue
Redstone GC Tournament Course, Humble, Texas
Course Details
Par 72, 7457 yards, stroke average in 2011 - 71.74
A Rees Jones design, Redstone was built to host this event and will be doing so for the seventh year in-a-row this time around. It's a long track, with water in play on ten holes. Greens are slightly larger than average and in an attempt to simulate conditions at Augusta National, home of next week's US Masters, they'll be playing very fast. Don't expect the event to be won with a final hole birdie. With water very much in play, the par 4 18th is the toughest on the course at 488 yards.
Useful Sites
Event site
Course details
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, 8.00pm on Thursday and Friday and 6.00pm on Saturday and Sunday.
Last Five Winners
2011 - Phil Mickelson -20
2010 - Anthony Kim -12 (playoff)
2009 - Paul Casey -11
2008 - Johnson Wagner -16
2007 - Adam Scott -17
Typical Winner
Length isn't the be all and end all despite how long the track is. Although the last three winners were all ranked in the top-ten for Driving Distance for the week, two of the six champs here, Stuart Appleby and Johnson Wagner aren't renowned for their length off the tee. Driving Accuracy is absolutely irrelevant but hitting greens is imperative, as scrambling is tough here and a missed green often results in a bogey or worse.
Trading tip for the week
There will be some dramatic moves in the US Masters market this week as players perform well or flop here, and if you're nice and quick you can get yourself some nice positions ahead of the year's first major next week.
Market Leaders
Lee Westwood heads the market at [13.0] but form figures of 30-8-11-56 here don't inspire me much. Westwood's biggest strength is his accurate driving so given it really doesn't matter where you hit your tee-shots, as long as they're long and dry, he's readily dismissed.
Second favourite, Phil Mickelson, is a selection so I've dealt with him below and there are a total of five players trading below [30.0], but none of them look anywhere close to good value to me.
Selections
Sometimes a nice solid wager is staring you right in the face and you try your damndest to look elsewhere before returning to the downright obvious, and that's what I did here for a while. I didn't back Phil Mickelson from the start last year, thinking he'd be in warm-up mode for the US Masters. I think he perhaps was to start with but he soon went from warm to scintillatingly red-hot and he could very easily defend his crown. I have a sneaky feeling he might now build a record here, like he's done at Riviera.
He bumbled along at the Northern Trust Open for eight years without showing much at all. He missed the cut four times and his best finish was a tie for 15th, then all of a sudden the penny dropped in 2007 and his form figures since read 2-1-1-45-35-2. In his first three visits to Redstone, tied 23rd on his first look was the best he could muster and then last year he opened up with two rounds of 70, then bang! Weekend rounds of 63 and 65 blew the opposition aside twelve months ago and what's to say he won't pick up where he left off?
He's won the International, the Bob Hope Classic, the Tour Championship, the Greater Hartford Open, the Crowne Plaza Invitational, the Mercedes Championships, the Phoenix Open and the Northern Trust Open twice. The Tucson Open, BellSouth Classic, Buick Invitational and US Masters, have been all been won three times, and he's conquered all at the AT & T Pebble Beach on four occasions. And he's defended a title successfully five times! Can he double-up here? You bet he can.
I've also backed Stuart Appleby, who has a great event record and I've detailed my reasoning behind my other selection, Graham DeLaet, in this week's Find Me a 100 Winner column.
Shell Houston Selections:
Phil Mickelson @ [14.5]
Graham DeLaet @ [230.0]
Stuart Appleby @ [250.0]
I'll be back on Friday with my In-Play Blog.
Our man takes a detailed looked at this week's Race to Dubai event, where there's a brand new venue to ponder. Who's going to be suited to the Kyle Philips designed Verdura Golf & Spa?...
Tiger Woods wins his first official PGA Tour event for 30 months, as he makes it a magnificent seven at Bay Hill. And it's been a good week for Steve too as his pre-event [85.0] pick, Michael Hoey, wins the...
Steve looks forward to a stress-free evening, after his pre-event pick, Michael Hoey, wins the Trophee Hassan II...
February 13, 2012
The Punter's De-Brief: Woods fades as Lefty shines
The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 13 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Phil Mickelson after his fourth Pebble Beach success
“As Mickelson was propelling himself up the leaderboard at a rate of knots, Woods was missing putts from a few feet and dropping shots like confetti at a wedding. He seems to have lost that steely nerve and the once invincible now looks vulnerable. “
Phil Mickelson wins the AT & T Pebble Beach National as Tiger Woods falters in the mix once more. Read Steve's thoughts on this week's events here...
It all came down to putting at the Dubai Desert Classic - Raphael Cabrera-Bello rolled in the vital ones, particularly for birdie on the 17th, whilst Lee Westwood missed chance after chance and the Spaniard prevailed by one to win his second title, following his win at the Austria Open in 2009.
In the States, Phil Mickelson played some inspired stuff to claim his third AT & T Pebble Beach title in eight years and his fourth in total. For the third week in-a-row on the PGA Tour someone had entered the final round with a substantial lead, only to let it slip. This week it was the turn of Charlie Wi. The Korean four-putted the first green to make double-bogey and was always up against it after that. To his credit, he rallied to claim second place, birdying the last three holes.
My Bets
I entered the weekend with very high hopes in Dubai with both Thomas Bjorn and Martin Kaymer right in the thick of it but by the time they'd played three holes on Sunday I knew I had no chance. In stark contrast, I entered the final round at the AT & T with very little hope of turning the week's fortunes around and then up popped Lefty - backed before the off at [26.0].
Few things in life give me greater pleasure than watching Mickelson in full flow when I've backed him and his eight under par 64 was a joy to watch. There were par saves from 20 feet plus, a tee-shot to within a few feet, an eagle and birdies aplenty. This was vintage Lefty and not for the first time it came from almost nowhere.
I layed plenty of my wager back, at all rates down from [1.88] to [1.01], but it was a tremendous result and one I'll remember for a long time.
Players to swerve
I'd highlighted Lee Westwood's record when he's right in the mix yesterday and it makes for even worse reading today. Incredibly, he's now zero from twelve when he's either tied for the lead, leading by one, or trailing by one, going into the final round. If he's built up a decent lead, like he did recently at both the Thailand Golf Championship and Nedbank Challenge, he's able to coast home but without clear water between himself and the field, he seems to struggle. As already stated, his putting yesterday was dreadful and I fancy nerves have something to do with that and he remains one to treat with caution when bang in-contention on a Sunday.
Only two weeks ago I wrote "There is a slight chance that the ruthless and clinical closer that Woods once was is a thing of the past and he may just be worth taking on at short odds the next time he finds himself in with a good chance. I fancy he's bound to be shorter than he should be." So who did I fancy as the danger at the AT & T with a round to go? Tiger Woods.
Apart from a short spell on Friday, Mickelson hadn't impressed and I fancied the leaders, Wi and Ken Duke might struggle and that Woods looked a fair price at around [3.85]. Mercifully, I didn't back him because he was quite frankly abysmal. Where's the old Tiger gone? As Mickelson was propelling himself up the leaderboard at a rate of knots, Woods was missing putts from a few feet and dropping shots like confetti at a wedding. He seems to have lost that steely nerve and the once invincible now looks vulnerable.
I'm sure those that followed Paul Krishnamurty's advice and layed Tiger in both the top-five and top-ten markets had resigned themselves to paying out but the once mighty Woods was so bad yesterday that his three over par 75 saw him slip from third place to 15th to put his layers in clover.
What have we learnt for next year?
Don't back Rory McIlroy over the weekend in Dubai, a pattern has definitely emerged. In each of the last four years he's started off like a rocket but when he gets to the weekend the rocket starts malfunctioning. Even when he won the event in 2009 there were stumbles over the last two days and he's worth taking on if he starts well again next year. As to why it happens? He often starts to tread water when he hits the front early in tournaments but I think there's more to it than that here. The course changes considerably as the week goes on. The smallest change in wind speeds changes the yardages significantly and the greens vary in speed from one day to the next and I'm not sure he's able to adapt as well as he should. We've all seen what he's capable off in benign conditions but I still have my doubts about him when it's not so easy.
The Race to Dubai moves from the Middle East to India this week with the Avantha Masters, where Cabrera-Bello will be attempting to go back-to-back. Whilst in the States, a first-rate field, including world number one Luke Donald, lines up at Riviera for the Northern Trust Open. I'll be back tomorrow with previews of both events.
Steve's out of the game as they close out the event in Dubai so he's taken a good look at the state of play in California where Tiger looks the man to beat......
Steve runs the rule over this week's US PGA Tour event, what's it going to take to win at Pebble?...
Our man takes a good look at the last leg of the Middle East Swing, where Rory McIlroy's a warm order, but is he value?...
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