The Punter
/ Steven Rawlings / 03 April 2011 / Leave a Comment
Phil Mickelson on his way to a record equalling 63 yesterday
“The lefty boat hovered tantalisingly close to shore all evening but every time I went to jump, I stopped myself, convinced I’d get a bit bigger if I waited. The boat is now on the horizon and I just have to accept it.”
First it was Anthony Kim, now it's Phil Mickelson. The Punter's Augusta picks are flying but how's he doing this week?
10:25- April 3, 2011
Anyone that reads my column with any sort of regularity will know I'm a huge Phil Mickelson fan and after he shot a course record equalling 63 yesterday to assume command in Humble Texas yesterday, any such reader would probably assume I'm now aboard the great man for this week's title. They'd be wrong.
As Lefty started his charge last night, I spent my time sorting out my position on him for next week and I was happy enough that, after numerous trades in and out, I'd got him covered for Augusta at an average of just over [14.5]. But I can't pretend I didn't then spend an hour or so feeling sick that I hadn't backed him in-running to win here. To say he played well last night is a sizable understatement and although I did want to back him, I quite simply missed the boat.
You nearly always get a chance with Phil, they'll be a drive in the water somewhere or a silly missed par putt from three feet that will cause a huge price spike, and usually an overeating price spike to boot, but no such hiccup occurred last night. The Lefty boat hovered tantalisingly close to shore all evening but every time I went to jump, I stopped myself, convinced I'd get a bit bigger if I waited. The fact that he birdied the notoriously hard final hole summed it up really. He was relentless and his price just got shorter and shorter. The boat is now on the horizon and I just have to accept it.
Mickelson is tied for the lead with Scott Verplank, with Aaron Baddeley and one of my in-running picks, Chris Kirk, just a shot back. And with Anthony Kim and Steve Stricker lurking, within two and three strokes respectfully, Phil will have to keep the pedal down later if he's going to enter next week's first major with a win under his belt and although I wouldn't put anyone off backing him at around [3.0], I'm not going to. It's never easy to back-up a really low round and having resigned myself to missing the big prices, I can certainly live with missing the short one, should he win. I have had one more play though; on a player I very rarely back...
Hunter Mahan off the pace is a very different beast to Hunter Mahan on the pace, as I pointed out in the AT & T De-Brief. He confirmed the flaky leader theory at Doral recently when finding it impossible to lead all the way and now this looks like an ideal opportunity to test the other side of the theory. Four off the lead with a round to go, on a course where low scores are perfectly possible, looks just the scenario to suit Hunter and he's been backed at [32.0].
I'd written yesterday that Rhys Davies looked the most likely winner in Morocco and after a decent third round he's now tied for the lead with a round to go, so did I manage to back him yesterday? No, I didn't. But I did back the other co-leader David Horsey at an average of [15.0] so it's not all bad news.
Half watching the golf and half watching the cricket, Davies appeared to be struggling early on and after Horsey had birdied the third hole I thought he looked a bit big. Once he'd holed out from the fairway on the 6th the price was massive. Davies rallied after that though, birdying five holes in seven from the 8th.
It's not exclusively a two-horse race (pardon the obvious pun) but I'd be slightly surprised if one of the two leaders didn't win now. If they are going to get beat I hope it's by George Coetzee, one of Paul Krishnamurty's Find Me A 100 Winner picks this week. Coetzee's already traded at the first lay-back price and very nearly hit the second one yesterday when he streaked to a four shot lead. He's now two off the lead. And Paul picked David Horsey last week too, fine form indeed.
09:10- April 2, 2011
I'm still far from gripped by the action in Morocco where I'm still being cautious, and with 11 players separated by just a single stroke it's perhaps not a bad thing. Last year's winner, Rhys Davies has found some form from somewhere and looks the most likely winner and had he been a fraction bigger I may well have backed him. He's tied for the lead with promising Dutch youngster Joost Luiten on -6 with a group of eight a shot back on -5.
I have added one more, taking a ludicrously big [75.0] about Argentine Julio Zapata, one of those tied for 3rd on -5. He's won numerous titles in his homeland and may have enough experience to hang about all weekend. I thought he should have been about [40.0].
My in-running master plan at the Shell didn't go brilliantly. Chris Kirk did well enough; shooting three under to take up the running but the other two were poor. Josh Teater failed to break par and the nerves got to first round leader Jimmy Walker, as he shot two over par, but both players aren't out of it and are only two back of Kirk.
The massive move of the day came from one of Dan Geraghty's picks, defending champ Anthony Kim, and that wasn't bad news for me either. I backed Kim for next week's Masters at the start of the year but he's been quite badly out of form since his tied 6th at Torrey Pines in January. I had the wherewithal to top-up for next week as he made birdies early on yesterday but rather stupidly I didn't back him for this event. Now just one back he has every chance.
This could be starting to be something of a 'horses for courses' type track as the 2009 champ Johnson Wagner is bang there too. He sits alongside Kim after an impressive second round.
Of my original wagers only Ben Crane has a chance. Despite dropping a shot at his final hole he's moved up to -6 and is within three of the lead, so I'm not without chances going into the weekend, fingers and toes crossed!
11:25- April 1, 2011
As if the Trophee Hassan II wasn't hard enough, the European Tour website's leaderboard was constantly inaccurate yesterday and no doubt it will be again today, so if you're betting in-running be very careful. It's hard to believe what a pig's ear of a job they make of updating the scores week after week and a frozen leaderboard is a common occurrence, and somewhat suspiciously it's nearly always on-stop about half an hour before the TV coverage starts!
My sole pick, Freddie Andersson-Hed, was soon out of the reckoning with an atrocious start. He actually ended his day by birdying three of his last four holes but it was all too little too late.
I haven't had another bet and I won't for a while yet. I can't trust the leaderboard at all so I'm going to wait until the TV coverage starts at 1.00pm before I do anything but I'll probably wait until round two is done and dusted anyway. It's fair to say this one hasn't quite captured my imagination.
What a shame Ben Crane didn't have Andersson-Hed's finish. Just as the Swede was finishing up in Morocco in style, Ben was spoiling a great first round in Houston by dropping three shots in the last three holes - double-bogeying the last after finding water with his tee-shot. A common theme for my picks unfortunately!
Stuart Appleby, who started on the 10th, wasn't having the greatest of days but on -2, with a third of his round to go, he wasn't out of it either, but he is now. Not content with driving into the water on the par-5 4th to make bogey, he did it twice on the next hole! That led to a nine and the end of his chances. Ouch.
Given all the water about it seems a bit strange that driving accuracy just doesn't seem to matter here but it really doesn't. First round leader Jimmy Walker avoided the aqua and shot a very impressive, course record equalling nine under par 63 and yet ranked 138th for Driving Accuracy!
I'd highlighted in my preview that being up with the pace early here appears an essential pre-requisite and I've made plays on the strength of it. I recognise that with just five years worth of course form it's a risky strategy; especially considering the inexperience atop of the leaderboard but it's a strong enough trend to take the chance.
Of the five Redstone winners to date, two have led all the way, two were just one back after round one and the only other winner, Adam Scott, had ended the first round three back of Stuart Appleby but made up the deficit on the 72nd hole when Apples found the water off the tee.
If the run of every winner having to be within three of the lead after day one continues, then only four players can still win! I may well have taken over-simplifying to a new level but I've backed three of them, leaving out the most experienced.
Walker's two clear of Nick O'Hern and Josh Teater and three clear of Chris Kirk, with a group of four players four back. I've left out O'Hern because he's just hopeless in-contention and I've taken [9.6] about Walker and [40.0] about the other two.
All three of them are looking for their first PGA title but all three have won on the Nationwide Tour. Coincidently, all three have a morning tee-time today.
Of those in the group four back of Walker, Steve Stricker looks the biggest danger but hopefully he'll be miles back by the time he tees off in the afternoon!
Pre-Event Pick
Trophee Hassan II
Freddie Andersson-Hed @ an average of [135.0]
In Running Bet
Julio Zapata @ [75.0] - after round two
David Horsey @ an average of [15.0] - during round three
Pre-Event Picks
Shell Houston Open
Stuart Appleby @ [55.0]
Ben Crane @ [60.0]
Gary Woodland @ [75.0]
Chad Campbell @ [120.0]
In Running Bets
Jimmy Walker @ [9.6] - after round one
Josh Teater @ [40.0] - after round one
Chris Kirk @ [40.0] - after round one
Hunter Mahan @ [32.0] - after round three
Freddie gets the nod in nigh on impossible Morocco and there's a team of four in Texas, where the picture's somewhat clearer......
It's not been a great week for our man, as both round three leaders hang on to win but Steve's looking forward to Augusta now, where Rose may just be a value bet......
Steve's in-running plays haven't exactly shone and Karlberg's flopped but Lara and Bubba could yet save the week.......
Betfair website
