The Punter 
/ Steven Rawlings / 29 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Stuart Appleby – The Punter’s most obvious pick in Houston
“Not only has Stuart Appleby won here and should have won here twice but he also won the title in 1999 and was runner-up in 2003. In short, Apples loves Houston and [55.0] was plenty big enough.”
Freddie gets the nod in nigh on impossible Morocco and there's a team of four in Texas, where the picture's somewhat clearer...
This week's Race to Dubai event, the Trophee Hassan II in Morocco, looks a nigh on impossible puzzle to solve. It's a pro-am with a distinctly second division field staged over two courses and two different courses to those used last year to boot! I simply did not know where to start, or whether it was even worth starting and I wasn't a million miles from not even having a bet before the off, but where's the fun in that? And anyway, one player looked way too big - Sweden's Freddie Andersson-Hed.
It's less than two months since Freddie was finishing 7th in the Dubai Desert Classic, a far better event than this one and that came just a week after a missed cut in Qatar, so a couple of weekends off recently needn't be a huge negative, especially considering he shot 67 last Friday, ten shots better than he'd shot on Thursday.
Freddie was a winner last year at the Italian Open, finished tied 2nd at the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, was an excellent 6th at the HSBC Champions event in China and is far too good to have been as big as [140.0] to win such a weak event. And I see I'm not alone, Paul Krishnamurty has him as one of his Find Me A 100 Winner picks this week too.
Selection:
Freddie Andersson-Hed @ an average of [135.0]
There's much more to go on in the States at the 64th Shell Houston Open, staged for the sixth year running at the Redstone GC Tournament Course, so here are a few pointers...
Paul Casey, the 2009 champ, is the only European to have ever won the event.
Although water comes into play on 10 holes, driving accuracy at Redstone appears almost irrelevant. Last year's winner, Anthony Kim, actually finished last of those that made the cut for fairways hit.
It's not essential to be long off the tee either. Although the last two winners, Kim and Casey, and Adam Scott, successful in 2007, were all in the top-10 for driving distance, the other two Redstone winners, Johnson Wagner and Stuart Appleby only ranked 53rd and 27th respectively.
It's not easy to establish whether putting or accurate iron play is more important - some of the five winners here have hit plenty of greens and some have had a great week with the putter.
We also have to add in the quandary of which players are really up for it and which are readying themselves for next week. Phil Mickelson for one will almost certainly be thinking about Augusta. When interviewed after the event last year he said this wasn't an ideal course to prepare for Augusta, stating that he has to use his driver all week to prepare for the Masters but that with all the water in play he knows he's going to put himself in trouble a lot, and last year he did.
Confused? So was I. Maybe I should have written confusing stats instead of pointers! But fortunately there is one very good pattern emerging that could well lead to profits in-running. Just like Augusta next week, it seems you really have to be up with the pace at Redstone.
In 2007 Stuart Appleby led from start to finish. Then a year later he messed up the final hole to let in Adam Scott and to scupper a repeat of the feat. Twelve months later Wagner led all the way and Paul Casey led from round two onwards in '09, having been tied for 4th after day one. And then last year Kim's end of round positions were 3-4-1-1. I know it's only five years form but it does look a strong trend.
Given all the above, I've taken it easy here with just four modest plays from the get-go and I'll be looking to build a profitable portfolio in play.
The shortest priced and most obvious selection is Stuart Appleby. Not only has he won here and should have won here twice but he also won the title in 1999 and was runner-up in 2003. In short, Apples loves Houston and [55.0] was plenty big enough.
My other three are all Texas residents. Ben Crane has been off with a rib injury so there's a slight risk there but he's quite sensible and tends to withdraw before the off if he's not right. If he is right, [60.0] was generous. He's been in decent form this year and has two top-25 finishes from three starts here, despite very poor opening rounds.
Gary Woodland looks a good fit for Redstone where his big-hitting should be a plus, although he did miss the cut here on his only previous outing two years ago. The big downside is that he may already have done his winning. It's possibly a lot to ask to hope he'll win again, just two weeks after his impressive victory at Copperhead but he's a big enough price to take the risk.
And last up is Chad Campbell, who really should have won here in '08. I must be mad but he gets one more last try!
Selections:
Stuart Appleby @ [55.0]
Ben Crane @ [60.0]
Gary Woodland @ [75.0]
Chad Campbell @ [120.0]
I'll be back on Friday with the Live Golf Blog.
It's not been a great week for our man, as both round three leaders hang on to win but Steve's looking forward to Augusta now, where Rose may just be a value bet......
Steve's in-running plays haven't exactly shone and Karlberg's flopped but Lara and Bubba could yet save the week.......
Mickelson may have scuppered his bet last year but Steve's playing the percentages again this time around......
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