US Masters 
/ Steven Rawlings / 08 April 2012 / 3 Comments 
Peter Hanson – Can he handle the heat?
“Peter Hanson tends to get very nervous in-contention and I think the enormity of the task will take its toll.”
With just one round to go at Augusta National, nine players appear to hold a chance to win the year's first major. Steve Rawlings profiles each of the Masters hopefuls
10:45 - April 8, 2012
On a day when just seven players broke 70, Peter Hanson and Phil Mickelson have seemingly put themselves in command after moving day. Rounds of 65 and 66 respectfully have thrust them to the top of the leaderboard and given 18 of the last 20 winners have been in the final pairing on Sunday it may be futile to look beyond them with a round to go.
If the top two do fail we can perhaps go down as far as the four players tied for sixth but it's hard to envisage anyone else having a chance. Here's a look at those that can still win the 2012 US Masters with prices to back as at 10.40am.
Peter Hanson -9 [5.4]
With four wins from five when he's held a third round lead, the stats would suggest the Swede has every chance of converting but stats can be deceiving. He actually tends to get very nervous in-contention and I think the enormity of the task will take its toll. Paul Krishnamurty advocates laying players in the Top 5 Finish market in his in-running trading guide here and I wouldn't put anyone off laying Hanson now at around the [1.5] mark.
Phil Mickelson -8 [2.76]
With three green jackets in the last eight years already, Lefty is most definitely the man to beat. I will look to lay back some of my pre-event wager at some point, should I get the chance, but he's too big to do so now.
Louis Oosthuizen -7 [7.0]
Already a major winner, having won the Open Championship in 2010, Louis will be looking to become the third South African to win the event in five years. He has the class and is in incredible form but he led by two last week at the Shell Houston Open with a round to go before melting like an Easter egg on a radiator. I can't see his nerves holding out here.
Bubba Watson -6 [10.5]
Bubba didn't make my portfolio because he came into the event putting deplorably and given that after three rounds the front three on the leaderboard rank first second and third for putting on the week, I was right to dismiss poor putters, but Bubba's found something from somewhere. He's ranked 20th for putting at present and if the flat-stick behaves itself, Watson could be the one to put it up to the leaders.
Matt Kuchar -5 [20.0]
A birdie at the final hole salvaged something from a poor back-nine performance yesterday, after he'd put himself right in the mix with a three-under par front-nine. He's not a player I like to back as, again, he too gets very nervous and I can't help but think his chance has gone.
Lee Westwood -4 [22.0]
The Worksop Wonder has slowly drifted away after leading on day one and without doubt the putter is to blame. He missed one from inside a foot yesterday and you don't win this event putting like that. I'm surprised he's shorter than Hunter Mahan and he wouldn't be for me.
Hunter Mahan -4 [27.0]
Hunter was impressive last Sunday when he finished off the Shell Houston in style. A major title is the next step for the world's highest ranked American and he won't feel as though he has anything to lose starting the day five back.
Padraig Harrington -4 [38.0]
Putting advice from Bernard Langer appears to have paid off for the triple major winner and he could be dangerous. Not afraid of performing on the biggest of stages, Padraig is a reasonable price and he shouldn't be nearly twice the price of Westwood.
Henrik Stenson-4 [44.0]
Stenson's likely to rue making eight on the last on Thursday for many a day to come. It's great to see the likable Swede back in form but it's hard to envisage him winning. There'll be a mistake or two along the way today I'm sure and given the size of the gap that needs bridging, he can't afford any.
The remainder are -3 or worse and [190.0] and bigger and I'd be very surprised if the winner doesn't come from those listed above.
Don't forget to have a few pounds on Yes in the Hole-in-One market before plays starts if you want a fun wager at a sporting price. Enjoy what's bound to be a fantastic evening's entertainment, good luck, and I'll be back tomorrow with my US Masters De-brief.
10:05 - April 7, 2012
Twelve months ago we witnessed one of the tightest, most spectacular finales in US Masters history, with eight players hitting the front at one stage or another during the final round. We could be heading for something very similar this time around, in fact, it could be an even more dramatic finish if the leading pack stays intact. With fully thirty players within five of the lead at halfway, surely another exciting Sunday is on the cards? I'm not so sure...
I'm delighted that I haven't got too involved in-running so far and I'm not in a desperate rush to change that stance. This looks very hard to call, and besides, after his superb four-under par second round 68, my main pick, Phil Mickelson, has played himself right back into it. He's now on -2 and just three off the lead.
In stark contrast to Lefty, Tiger Woods appears to have played his way out of the event. The star attraction of last night's live coverage was quite frankly awful. It wasn't easy for the latter starters with play painfully slow (Tiger's group took nearly six hours to get round)and everyone seemed to be struggling as the shadows lengthened and the temperature dropped but pre-event favourite Tiger was really poor.
His game looked in total disarray and although it's always dangerous to dismiss a class-act like Woods, eight off the lead and with 39 players in front of him, I don't like his chances one iota.
Jason Dufner and 52 year-old Freddie 'Boom Boom' Couples, one of Paul Krishnamurty's Find Me a 100 Winner picks, are tied for the lead on -5, with a pack of five top-class contenders, including Rory McIlroy, who now heads the market at [4.4], one back.
Although jam-packed at present, I fancy the leaderboard will thin out considerably tonight and I can see it looking very differently tomorrow. Nine players broke 70 on day one and only five managed it yesterday, and I can't imagine that trend will reverse as the course dries out. If you're lucky enough to have a pick in the leading pack right now, don't get frustrated if they don't start with a rash of birdies later. Tonight could well be a grind and anyone capable of breaking par on moving day will prosper greatly.
Of the first three in the betting at present, Rory could cut out the mistakes and outclass them all, Lee Westwood could start dropping a few more putts, or Lefty (who currently tops the putting stats) could start finding more fairways and greens but it's impossible to call and I'm happy to carry on waiting. I really wish I could say I fancied player x or player y strongly at halfway but the fact of the matter is I don't and I'm continuing with the cautious stance.
Bar for a couple of small top-up wagers on Ben Crane and Y.E Yang, at [120.0] and [150.0] respectfully, I'm keeping my powder dry for now, with a view to trading as the third round progresses. I will be keeping an eye on those players three and four off the lead as they come to the birdie holes on the back nine. Anyone on level or better for the day on the 13th tee could be about to make a huge move.
I'll be back in the morning with another look, when things will hopefully look a bit easier.
01:25 - April 6, 2012
Can we start again please?
Waiting for the Masters feels like waiting for Christmas when you're a kid - the anticipation is simply magical. And to carry the analogy forward, there was a point in time yesterday whereby my selections were doing so poorly, that it felt as though Santa had not only failed to deliver any new toys, he'd broken in and stolen the old ones! It's not been a great start for yours truly but at least the tournament's still on track...
The forecast suggested we might get delays but the thunderstorms failed to materialise and at the end of day one, and mercifully round one, Lee Westwood holds sway on -5 after a superb opening round of 67, which had he putted slightly better (the usual story with Lee) could have been a few shots better.
The big two, Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy, had contrasting ends to their lacklustre opening rounds. Tiger Woods bogeyed the last two holes to finish on level par and Rory birdied them to finish on -1.
My two shortest priced picks were very disappointing to say the least. Phil Mickelson bogeyed the 9th to go over par and then lost his ball off the tee on the 10th before going on to record a three-over par seven! In a flash he was four-over and his chance looked gone. To his credit, he rallied and his birdie on the last leaves him on +2. You pay your money and you take your chance with Lefty - he's boom or bust and I've no regrets about backing him but I'm cross with myself for backing Luke Donald, who finished the day on +3.
I knew his first round record was poor here and what I really should have done was wait. Oh well, it's no use crying over spilt milk.
Of the rest of my pre-event picks, Miguel Angel Jimenez has done me proud (shooting -3) and Angel Cabrera did ok, finishing on -1, but the rest were dire.
I've had just one in-running punt so far, throwing a few pounds at my old mate Ben Crane at [80.0], who sits on -3. Other than that, I'm going to hang fire for now. It looks fascinatingly poised and it will be interesting to see how the likes of Woods, McIlroy and even Lefty respond to being so far behind but whatever they do, it could all be futile if you believe in the power of the bib!
Apparently, on the last three occasions that the Masters has ended on Easter Sunday, the winner's caddy has worn bib number 53. And that's the number Westwood's caddy Billy Foster has drawn this week. Could it be an omen?
I'll be back later today if I get further involved before play kicks off but I think I'm going to wait until the second round is well underway. There are so many imponderables still and I want to wait until the stagger unwinds and the field thins out somewhat. After such a bad start I could easily force things and get myself into a right mess.
There's a whole host of drama to come at Augusta and Paul Krishnamurty has picked out a variety of ways to keep you that little bit more interested in the Augusta action with these four bets......
Phil Mickelson is a [2.72] shot to win the Masters for a fourth time, ahead of third round leader Peter Hanson and 2010 Open champion Louis Oosthuizen....
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