Showing posts with label Timeform. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Timeform. Show all posts

November 1, 2014

Timeform UK SmartPlays: Saturday November 1

"Ardkilly Witness should benefit from a recent spin over hurdles at Cheltenham and is taken to strike for his in-form yard."

Ascot and Wetherby provide high-class jumps action on Saturday. Timeform pick out the best bets from across the cards.


Sign of A Victory - 15:00 Ascot

Sign of A Victory looked an unlucky loser when persistently hampered by a loose horse on the run-in at Ayr in April and remains with some potential. He can make a winning reappearance. Mountain King will make a chaser in time, but he's got more to offer in this sphere before then and may pose the biggest threat to the selection, with Ted Spread also coming into the reckoning.

Taquin de Seuil - 15:15 Wetherby

Silviniaco Conti was successful in two of four starts in Grade 1 company last term, notably the King George, and has the best form in the book, but connections may have one eye on races such as the Betfair Chase in three weeks time, and he may be worth opposing on this occasion with Cheltenham Festival scorer Taquin du Seuil, who has had the benefit of a recent pipe-opener. Medermit looks next best.

Ardkilly Witness - 15:35 Ascot

Ardkilly Witness should benefit from a recent spin over hurdles at Cheltenham and is taken to strike for his in-form yard. Le Bec starts life in handicaps from a fair-looking mark and can compete if putting in a fault-free round of jumping, while Merry King was placed in this event 12 months ago and won't be far away again if ready to go after an absence.

Timeform UK SmartPlays

Back Sign of A Victory in the 15:00 Ascot
Back Taquin de Seuil in the 15:15 Wetherby
Back Ardkilly Witness in the 15:35 Ascot


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August 30, 2014

Timeform US SmartPlays: Saturday August 30

"This looks a good opportunity for the forecast second favourite First Frost to overturn Morning Line selection Wingate Hall..."

Timeform's US team pick out their three best bets for Saturday night's stateside action...

Today's Man looks a solid selection in the third race (19:11 BST) at Delaware. This low-level claimer has attracted eight runners among whom only Sky Of Grey has remotely comparable form and even then has he has a fair bit to find on recent form. Today's Man managed only sixth place last time but that was in a better-class race than the one he is in today and the last time he was down at this sort of level he romped home at Pimlico making all the running. A similar sort of scenario is on the cards today.

There is a very good card at Saratoga but value looks to be thin on the ground so we'll stay at Delaware for our second bet which is Dramedy in the seventh race (21:02 BST). He had a very stiff task on last time taking on the useful Reporting Star at level weights at Woodbine, so did extremely well to only go down by a very slim margin, in the process pulling clear of some fairly useful types and a subsequent winner. The ex-Irish Captain's Affair would set a good standard if at his best on his first run for getting on for a year but his trainer Richard Mettee isn't exactly firing right now whereas Dramedy's new trainer Michael Pino is in a hot vein of form and has an excellent strike rate with horses back from this sort of three-month break.

The third race at Mountaineer (00:44 BST) is an allowance race that looks a good opportunity for the forecast second favourite First Frost to overturn Morning Line selection Wingate Hall. The latter has won his last two races on dirt at this track, so has to be respected, but those victories came against weaker competition than this and more significantly, he has still to look anywhere near as accomplished on grass. First Frost comes here on the back of a career-best effort on the synthetic at Presque Isle, so ought to handle his first try at turf and he brings the better recent form to the table.

Timeform US SmartPlays

Delaware race 3 (19:11 BST) win back #6 TODAY'S MAN @ 3.211/5 or longer
Delaware race 7 (21:02 BST) win back #1 DRAMEDY @ 5.04/1 or longer
Mountaineer race 3 (00:44 BST) win back #7 FIRST FROST @ 3.211/5 or longer


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Timeform Radio Tips: Saturday August 30

"Hold Court has had just four tries over fences and has yet to get off the mark, though he might well have done but for falling at the last here in June..."

David Cleary returns with his best bets for a busy Saturday full of competitive action...

Sandown hosts the main afternoon card, with some competitive fare, but the quality is well spread around, with decent racing at Beverley, Chester and Newton Abbot as well. On a busy day, it's a couple of horses at the last two named venues make most appeal.

Chester's sprint handicap at 14.20 looks a solid opportunity for Ballesteros finally to come good for the Richard Fahey yard. Ballesteros has hinted that all his ability remains intact for his new yard this year and ran his best race for it at the Shergar Cup meeting at Ascot earlier this month. Ballesteros shaped well then on ground that would have been plenty fast enough for him, which promises more to come back on easier going this afternoon. Ballesteros is a course-and-distance winner, has a reasonable draw to track what is likely to be a strong pace and the servies of promising 5-lb claimer Jack Garritty for the first time. B Fifty Two is the main danger after his excellent run at York last week, but Ballesteros looks to have a lot going for him and can land the prize.

The Mildmay Memorial Chase at Newton Abbot (15.20) has an open look to it. Houston Dynimo has been the morning mover and is obviously interesting on just his second start for David Pipe. However, he has more on than when winning over hurdles at Southwell last time and looks short enough now. One of definite interest against him is his stable companion Shotavodka. He has a progressive profile, doesn't look to have been treated too harshly for his win at Haydock in the spring and may well be suited by the way this race is likely to be run. If he is fit after a break, then Shotavodka will be there or thereabouts.

At a much bigger price, it's also worth keeping Hold Court on side. He has had just four tries over fences and has yet to get off the mark, though he might well have done but for falling at the last here in June. Hold Court has taken on some promising sorts in novices but has acquitted himself with credit and could well have more to offer, now that he switches to handicaps. He is one of three runners for his trainer Evan Williams, Adam Wedge in the saddle, with stable jockey Paul Moloney riding Buck Mulligan. That shouldn't count against Hold Court particularly, but it appears to in his price, which is far bigger than it should be on form.

Recommended bets

Back Ballesteros @ 6.411/2 in the 14:20 at Chester
Back Shotavodka @ 7.06/1 and Hold Court @ 26.025/1 in the 15:20 at Newton Abbot


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August 27, 2014

Timeform US SmartPlays: Tuesday August 26

"We’re very hopeful that Rapid Dan can overturn the Morning Line favourite Put It Forward..."

Timeform's US team pick out their three best bets for Tuesday night's stateside action...

Gurkha looks to have a very good chance in the opener (22:25 BST) at Presque Isle Downs and represents a bit of value at the forecast 3 on the Morning Line. Since returning to Presque Isle she has won two of her four starts and finished second in one of the others and by our reckoning has shown form 10lb superior to the rivals she meets today. This run-of-the-mill starter allowance contest represents a drop in class relative to the race she contested last time and she promises to get the ideal stalking trip behind likely race leader I'am Toorific. She stays this trip very strongly. 

In the third (23:15 BST) at Presque Isle, an allowance contest over six and a half furlongs we're very hopeful that Rapid Dan can overturn the Morning Line favourite Put It Forward. The pair look to have this race between them on our ratings and though there isn't much to choose between them on their best form, Rapid Dan, who has won his last three races here, looks to have a clear edge on recent form.  He seems likely to sit second turning for home and from thereon can make the most of the 7lb he receives from Put It Forward, with the extra half furlong today promising to prompt a bit more improvement. 

With nothing appealing much at Mountaineer or Fort Erie our third bet also comes from Presque Isle. Tazered is a horse that has operated at a higher level at the NYRA tracks in the past and judged on his recent efforts he clearly retains much of his trailblazing speed. The seventh race (00:55 BST) at the Pennsylvania venue is a competitive affair, though nothing compared to what he has overcome before, and the drop back to five and a half furlongs is a further reason to expect him to go very close.   

Timeform US SmartPlays

Race 1 Presque Isle Downs (22:25 BST) win back #1 GURKHA @ 3.02/1 or longer
Race 3 Presque Isle Downs (23:15 BST) win back #2 RAPID DAN @ 3.211/5 or longer
Race 7 Presque Isle Downs (00:55 BST) win back #4 TAZERED @ 4.67/2 or longer 


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August 26, 2014

Timeform Radio Tips: Tuesday August 26

"Hopes N Dreams is now off a mark just 2 lb higher than when successful a year ago..."

David Cleary takes up his regular seat in the pundit's chair and advises two bets for Tuesday afternoon's action...

There are two half-decent afternoon cards for a Tuesday today and there are lots of absentees at Epsom, where the ground is too soft, and Ripon, where it's too firm, there look to be bets to be had at both venues.

At Ripon, in the feature handicap at 16:15, it may be worth taking a chance on Ty Gwr. He's not been seen out since last October and is off a much higher mark than he was then, due to a win on his penultimate outing in 2013. However, Ty Gwr is still well weighted on that form and the fitting of his usual hood and the booking of Mikey Ennis both suggest he won't want for fitness this afternoon. Four non runners (at the time of writing) mean his outside draw isn't the concern it might have been and there remains enough potential pace to think the race will be run to suit him.

There are even more non runners at Epsom, the field for the sprint handicap at 15:25 now halved. This is all to the advantage of last year's winner Hopes N Dreams, who just hasn't been able to dominate in big-field sprint handicaps since she won at Hamilton earlier in the summer. Hopes N Dreams has slipped in the weights as a result, now off a mark just 2 lb higher than when successful a year ago. With the three drawn inside her now absent, stall 4 gives her the inside position, which makes it even more likely that she can boss this small field. 

Recommended bets 

Back Ty Gwr @ 13.012/1 in the 16:15 at Ripon 
Back Hopes N Dreams @ 8.07/1 in the 15:25 at Epsom


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August 23, 2014

Timeform US SmartPlays: Saturday August 23

Timeform's North American team bring you bets from Saratoga and Woodbine on Saturday...

The third race (17:37 BST) on a marathon card at Saratoga, an allowance race on the turf, could well be a good opportunity for Blue Pigeon to get back to winning ways. The son of Mizzen Mast only made his reappearance here last month having been off the track since November and though he finished behind two that oppose him again, he shaped very well, better than the two ahead of him arguably, doing too much chasing a strong pace before those exertions and lack of a recent run found him out. He should strip fitter today and makes plenty of appeal at the forecast price given his 2013 form is the best in the field by some way.
In the seventh race (21:19 BST) at Woodbine, a claimer over six furlongs on the synthetic surface, Marcian looks to have a good chance of extending her winning sequence to four. She hasn't run since May, but that's not a worry as her victory that day followed a seven-month break, and she has an excellent record over this course and distance. She's not beholden to any particular tactics which is useful given her outside draw but it wouldn't surprise to see her ridden prominently given the lack of competition for the early lead. She has the best form by some way by our estimation. 

Sky Painter hasn't been seen since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf - she finished ninth to Chriselliam - but a nine-month absence is seldom a negative so far as her trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is concerned and the fact she runs with Lasix first time in the thirteenth race (23: 20 BST) at Saratoga is what has really made up sit up and take notice. McLaughlin is awarded maximum marks by our TimeformUS partners for his record with horses running on medication first time and anything like a repeat of her best 2013 form would see her win this race readily, in which case she is no 4 shot as the Morning Line suggests.     

Timeform US SmartPlays:
Race 3 Saratoga (17:37 BST) win back #10 BLUE PIGEON at 3.613/5 or longer
Race 7 Woodbine (21:19 BST) win back #9 MARCIAN at 2.89/5 or longer
Race 13 Saratoga (23:20 BST) win back #5 SKY PAINTER at 3.613/5 or longer 


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Timeform Irish SmartPlays: Saturday August 23

"There are plenty who line up with live chances but one for our money is Hasanour for the in-form Mick Halford yard..."

Timeform's Irish team bring you their three best bets from the Curragh on Saturday...

We kick off proceedings with the Group 3 Renaissance Stakes over six furlongs (15:10) and it looks a smart field for the grade. The one to keep on side is Maarek, who should be sharper for his recent comeback effort at this track and can return to his best to add to his Duke of York success back in May. In truth he might not need to be at the peak of his powers to win, and providing he's progressed from last time he should have enough in the locker to account for today's rivals. 

It's a handicap over a mile under consideration next (15:45) and there are plenty who line up with live chances. The one for our money is Hasanour for the in-form Mick Halford yard, who finally delivered on his considerable promise at Galway at the end of last month. The visually-impressive manner of his victory gave no reason to suggest a 7 lb rise would temper his chances, and he's taken to go in again, although Focussed is feared. 

The final bet on the card comes in the listed Curragh Stakes for two-year-olds (16:20) and given that Ainippe looked a potentially smart prospect when making a winning start to her career at Naas last month, she's taken to take the step up to pattern company in her stride. The Great War merits respect now he's been given a drop in grade but the selection looked one to watch on debut and can take this on her way to bigger and better things. 

Timeform Irish SmartPlays
All at The Curragh

Back Maarek in the 15:10
Back Hasanour in the 15:45
Back Ainippe in the 16:20


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Timeform Radio Tips: Saturday August 23

Mighty Yar, Clever Cookie and Sir Walter Scott are all relatively unexposed and make clear appeal, but, at longer odds, Mighty Yar's stable companion Retirement Plan and Irish challenger Mutual Regard look worth an interest...

David Cleary puts up two long-priced Ebor punts, as well as a couple of other selections on Saturday...

The climax of the York Ebor meeting, the Ebor itself, takes centre stage this afternoon, with a field of twenty set to line up at 15.50. Pallasator has been a warm order for the race ever since his victory at Ascot a month ago, the pick of the weights under a 4 lb penalty for that success. That form has been boosted subsequently and he holds an obvious chance, particularly with the step back up in trip sure to benefit him. However, he's an obvious horse's price and there is every reason in such a strong handicap to look for value elsewhere.

Mighty Yar, Clever Cookie and Sir Walter Scott are all relatively unexposed and make clear appeal, but, at longer odds, Mighty Yar's stable companion Retirement Plan and Irish challenger Mutual Regard look worth an interest. Retirement Plan ran against Pallasator at Ascot, well backed on the day but below expectations, likely to have needed the run on his first start since the spring. He got back on track with a win over two miles at the Shergar Cup and although that isn't the strongest piece of form, Retirement Plan remains unexposed and he has the potential to progress again now he's back on track. 

Mutual Regard comes here after just two runs this year since joining Johnny Murtagh. Progressive at three, he won well at the Curragh on his return, that better form on which to judge him than his run in listed company behind Pale Mimosa at Leopardstown last time. Mutual Regard may well have more to offer. Also to the advantage of both Mutual Regard and Retirement Plan is that they are likely to be ridden handily in a race with a striking lack of potential pace.

That isn't a concern in the Gimcrack at 15.15, in which Jungle Cat can take advantage of not having to face Ivawood and land the spoils. Jungle Cat has been placed in pattern company on his last three starts, each time showing good speed but the last twice paying for pressing on with a superior rival in the shape of the best two-year-old colt around. With a flat track likely to play to his strengths, Jungle Cat can prove too good in what looks a slightly substandard renewal.

Away from York, there's a fascinating contest in prospect for the listed Hopeful Stakes at Newmarket (15.55). Tropics, who won this last year, and Intrinsic head the market, one a proven good-class sprinter, the other very much on the up after his win in the Stewards' Cup last time. While Intrinsic looks a pattern performer in the making and his form last time is strong, Tropics already is one, with a career-best run in the July Cup last time out. Intrinsic needs to improve a fair bit if Tropics runs up to that form and the latter has to be the bet, given there's little between them in the market. Tropics' proven ability to handle Newmarket's July course is another factor in his favour.  
Recommended bets: 
Back Retirement Plan @ 30.029/1 and Mutual Regard @ 26.025/1 in the 15.50 at York 
Back Jungle Cat @ 9.08/1 in the 15.15 at York
Back Tropics @ 4.57/2 in the 15.55 at Newmarket



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March 2, 2014

Timeform Irish SmartPlays: Moscow's the Man at Leopardstown

There is good action at Leopardstown on Sunday, and Timeform pick out the best three bets...

Art of Payroll shaped well on his handicap debut when fourth over C&D last time and he is capable of building on that effort in the two-mile handicap hurdle (15:20). The Dessie Hughes-trained five-year-old made an encouraging start to life over hurdles, winning at Cork, but he simply found graded affairs too competitive on his next two outings. He improved for the switch to handicaps, however, when shaping better than the bare result here last time having been hampered at a crucial stage, and remains open to improvement.

Moscow Mannon (15:50) was one of the top bumper performers in the 2011/12 season, and his emphatic chasing success at Naas last time suggests that he will be capable of competing at graded level over fences. Moscow Mannon perhaps didn't quite hit the heights expected over hurdles, but he had the misfortune of bumping into some exceptional prospects, notably Annie Power and Un de Sceaux, and looks set to make a better chaser based on the impressive jumping technique he showed at Naas. He ran out an effortless 15-length winner from a well-regarded horse trained by Willie Mullins at Naas, and is capable of taking this en route to better things.

Daring Article was narrowly denied over C&D by He'llberemembered in a valuable event in January and he can get his revenge this afternoon (16:20). A winning maiden hurdler - where he beat JLT-bound Felix Yonger, no less - Daring Article didn't quite go on as expected in that sphere but he has come good in some style over fences of late, winning two competitive handicap chases and bouncing back from a fall when well-fancied here at Christmas to finish runner-up last time. He is going the right way at present and makes as much appeal as any in a tricky event. 

Timeform Irish SmartPlays:
All at Leopardstown

Back Art of Payroll in the 15:20
Back Moscow Mannon in the 15:50
Back Daring Article in the 16:20


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Timeform Daily: Monday, Kempton 17:15

Mac's Power would be thrown in off this mark at his peak and has shown enough in 2 starts at Lingfield this year to suggest he can end his long losing run.

Timeform provide a runner-by-runner guide and verdict on a six-furlong handicap at Kempton...

Peace Seeker ended a long losing run when notching a turf double at Yarmouth (5f) last summer. Reliable on polytrack since, but the handicapper looks in charge for now. First-time tongue tie fitted here.

My Son Max scored over 5f at Wolverhampton in April and suggested he was on the way back when third here in December, but he failed to build on that at the former venue last time.

Naabegha took advantage of the drop to claiming company at Lingfield in December, but he's finished nearer last than first on all 4 starts in handicaps since and is now tried in a hood.

Light From Mars got back on the scoreboard in a 7f claimer at Wolverhampton for this yard in July before a spell with Tom Dascombe. Has found the frame in 3 of 4 starts this year, but more needed to resume winning ways.

Clear Praise grabbed the favoured rail when making all at Lingfield (turf) in August and not disgraced in 2 starts here last month after an absence. Still work to do from this mark, but a first-time hood may help.

Bainne landed a trio of turf handicaps for Charlie Swan in Ireland last year, but she was well held on her debut for new connections over C&D in January and needs to step up on that to figure.

Valmina bounced back to form when scoring at Lingfield in January and followed-up there 10 days later. Not disgraced when seventh in a similar event last weekend.

Toymaker showed that he still retains all his ability when landing an 8.6f Wolverhampton handicap early last month. Struggled off this revised mark there 12 days later, however.

Tyfos is a weak finisher who was placed 4 times on polytrack early in 2013, but hasn't troubled the judge in 6 starts on turf/fibresand since

Mac's Power was a very useful handicapper in his prime for James Fanshawe and ran his best race for this yard when runner-up in a Lingfield handicap last month. Potentially well treated if continuing his revival.

Glastonberry returned to winning ways at Wolverhampton in September and was just denied by Valmina on her penultimate start at Lingfield. Best excused her effort there last time (short of room final furlong).

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Mac's Power
2. Glastonberry
3. Clear Praise

Timeform View: Mac's Power would be thrown in off this mark at his peak and has shown enough in 2 starts at Lingfield this year to suggest he can end his long losing run. Glastonberry almost certainly remains in form and may provide the strongest challenge to the selection.


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February 12, 2014

Timeform Dubai SmartPlays: Meydan, Thursday February 6

"In the final contest at 18:15 it could be worth taking a flyer on Chil The Kite who shaped much better than the bare result on his reappearance and now has the services of Richard Hughes..."

Timeform's Dubai expert, Stephen Molyneux, provides you with three selections from Meydan...

My Freedom didn't get the run of things here on his reappearance and is well worth another chance in the opening thoroughbred contest at 15:15. His defeat of Solar Deity at Wolverhampton in October remains the race to be judging him on, that form franked several times subsequently, and My Freedom was never really given the opportunity to show what he could do behind Fulbright on his return, held up and not knocked about. He finished a neck ahead of Jamesie, who came out and won next time, and there is every chance of My Freedom doing the same granted a bit of luck in running. 

The ageless Star Empire still seems to be getting better and he is the one to be on in the staying handicap at 17:05. He got the better of Ahzeemah in this corresponding event 12 months ago before finishing third behind the same horse next time, and then wasn't beaten too far by Cavalryman in the Dubai Gold Cup itself. He is 7 lb higher this time around, but his reappearance when staying on into third behind Sheikhzayedroad suggested he could be better than ever this season, a point he can prove back over this more suitable trip.  

In the final contest at 18:15 it could be worth taking a flyer on Chil The Kite who shaped much better than the bare result on his reappearance and now has the services of Richard Hughes. He pulled his way round much of that contest won by Alexandra Palace, but was repeatedly denied a run up the rail and barely had a race, certainly doing more than enough to suggest he has returned in very good form. He was racing out of his grade for much of last season, not beaten far by the likes of Declaration Of War and Farhh in Group 1 contests, and this looks a good opportunity for him to gain a well-deserved win. 

Timeform Dubai SmartPlays
Back My Freedom in the 15:15
Back Star Empire in the 17:05
Back Chil The Kite in the 18:15



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Timeform Morebattle Hurdle: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

Doyly Carte had no chance with Annie Power last time and will find this easier, but narrow preference is for last year's winner Duke of Navan, who's been running at the top level this term and will appreciate the drop in class...

It's the Timeform-sponsored Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso on Thursday! Find out which horses we think will fight out the finish...

Duke of Navan won 3 of his 4 starts last term, including when showing much improved form to land this event. Out of depth in Grade 1s this season and expected to bounce back returned to a much more suitable level.

Bygones of Brid failed to match useful hurdles form over fences despite winning 2 Hexham novices in June. Second back over hurdles at Aintree in October but below par since. Firmly up against it.

Runswick Royal is a bumper winner who landed novices at Sedgefield and Newcastle early last year. Patchy form so far this season but stiffer test here will suit, and can't rule out on these terms.

Special Catch was an unlucky fifth at Aintree on final run last season and has continued on the up this term, winning convincingly at Haydock 8 weeks ago. Will find this tougher but likely to improve again.

Upsilon Bleu was a useful hurdler in France who won a Carlisle novice chase for this yard 11 months ago. Has posted solid efforts to find the frame on all 5 starts since and of interest back over hurdles now.

Doyly Carte won 3 of 5 starts over timber last season and even better form in defeat this term, no chance with Annie Power in Grade 2 event for mares at Doncaster last time. Facing nothing of that calibre here.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Duke of Navan
2. Doyly Carte
3. Special Catch

Timeform View: A race that usually attracts some useful performers and this year's renewal looks a competitive one. Doyly Carte had no chance with Annie Power last time and will find this easier, but narrow preference is for last year's winner Duke of Navan, who's been running at the top level this term and will appreciate the drop in class.


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