Showing posts with label August. Show all posts
Showing posts with label August. Show all posts

August 30, 2014

Timeform US SmartPlays: Saturday August 30

"This looks a good opportunity for the forecast second favourite First Frost to overturn Morning Line selection Wingate Hall..."

Timeform's US team pick out their three best bets for Saturday night's stateside action...

Today's Man looks a solid selection in the third race (19:11 BST) at Delaware. This low-level claimer has attracted eight runners among whom only Sky Of Grey has remotely comparable form and even then has he has a fair bit to find on recent form. Today's Man managed only sixth place last time but that was in a better-class race than the one he is in today and the last time he was down at this sort of level he romped home at Pimlico making all the running. A similar sort of scenario is on the cards today.

There is a very good card at Saratoga but value looks to be thin on the ground so we'll stay at Delaware for our second bet which is Dramedy in the seventh race (21:02 BST). He had a very stiff task on last time taking on the useful Reporting Star at level weights at Woodbine, so did extremely well to only go down by a very slim margin, in the process pulling clear of some fairly useful types and a subsequent winner. The ex-Irish Captain's Affair would set a good standard if at his best on his first run for getting on for a year but his trainer Richard Mettee isn't exactly firing right now whereas Dramedy's new trainer Michael Pino is in a hot vein of form and has an excellent strike rate with horses back from this sort of three-month break.

The third race at Mountaineer (00:44 BST) is an allowance race that looks a good opportunity for the forecast second favourite First Frost to overturn Morning Line selection Wingate Hall. The latter has won his last two races on dirt at this track, so has to be respected, but those victories came against weaker competition than this and more significantly, he has still to look anywhere near as accomplished on grass. First Frost comes here on the back of a career-best effort on the synthetic at Presque Isle, so ought to handle his first try at turf and he brings the better recent form to the table.

Timeform US SmartPlays

Delaware race 3 (19:11 BST) win back #6 TODAY'S MAN @ 3.211/5 or longer
Delaware race 7 (21:02 BST) win back #1 DRAMEDY @ 5.04/1 or longer
Mountaineer race 3 (00:44 BST) win back #7 FIRST FROST @ 3.211/5 or longer


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Market Movers: Saturday, August 30

This afternoon's market movers come from the meetings at Sandown, Beverley, Chester, Newton Abbot, and Wexford...


Sandown

14:40
Future Empire 2.96 in to 2.68
Aktabantay 2.57 out to 2.84

15:15
Fintry 2.5 out to 3.05
Diamond Dove 9.4 in to 8.4
Audacia 30.0 in to 22.0

15:50
Mount Shamsan 11.0 in to 9.6

16:25
Sister of Mercy 6.0 in to 5.1
Assault On Rome 8.6 in to 6.0

17:00
Zain Empire 7.8 in to 3.6

17:30
Telefono 2.97 out to 3.6
Norway Cross 6.11 in to 4.3


Beverley

13:55
Adele 2.12 out to 2.42
Hollie Point 2.8 in to 2.46

14:25
Pearl Secret 2.9 out to 3.45
Line Of Reason 13.29 in to 9.0

15:05
Ingenti 7.36 in to 6.2
Thatcherite 8.59 in to 7.4
Rich Again 9.0 in to 7.2
Bronze Beau 12.0 in to 8.8

15:40
Tom Sawyer 9.64 in to 7.6
Where The Boys Are 12.05 in to 8.4

16:15
Yenhaab 5.0 in to 3.7
Scallop 3.0 out to 4.2

16:50
Storm King 10.54 in to 8.4

17:50
Nam Ma Prow 7.4 in to 5.7


Chester

14:20
Ballesteros 8.31 in to 6.2
Dungannon 9.91 in to 7.6

14:55
Russian Realm 9.0 in to 7.8

16:05
Enlace 2.3 out to 3.5
Evening Rain 4.14 in to 3.55

17:10
Pushkin Museum 6.77 in to 5.3

17:40
Rosslyn Castle 5.94 in to 5.2
Nashville 10.54 in to 8.4
Albert Bridge 13.41 in to 9.2
Kleitomachos 16.77 in to 12.0


Newton Abbot

14:10
Goodbye Dancer 1.47 in to 1.29

14:45
Henryville 8.2 in to 6.4
Aalim 8.8 in to 6.4
Cool George 30.0 in to 12.0

15:20
Dursey Sound 5.4 in to 4.6
Houston Dynimo 8.4 in to 4.8

15:55
Y A Bon 7.8 in to 6.8
Unefille De Guye 18.5 in to 12.5

16:30
Calusa Star 7.0 in to 5.8

17:05
Bajan Blu 7.0 in to 5.5
Fair Dreamer 7.0 in to 5.0

17:35
Hollow Penny 2.5 in to 2.2
Sublime Talent 8.8 in to 7.0


Wexford

15:10
Mr Rock 2.64 in to 1.91


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Sandown Placepot: Saturday August 30

"Spa’s Dancer was unsuited by the way the race developed on his last outing and is better judged on good seconds at Newbury and Redcar earlier this season..."

Timeform attempt to crack the placepot at Sandown...

14:05 - Tagula Night has a particular liking for Sandown's sprint track and can land a fourth C&D win here. He was unsuited by the running of the race when a creditable third last time at Windsor and a low draw and Ryan Moore in the saddle should see him to better effect. David O'Meara's Eccleston put in the best performance of his short career when winning over C&D in April and should appreciate today's soft going.

14:40 - Aktabantay had been the focus of punters' interest in the lead-up to today's Solario Stakes, but the money has now come for Godlophin's impressive Newmarket maiden winner Future Empire and he looks set to give a bold show. He beat three subsequent winners when opening his account on debut and can confirm that promise here.

15:15 - André Fabre has a formidable record with three-year-olds in the UK and Fintry can enhance an already impressive 60% strike rate in the Atalanta Stakes. This progressive filly took her form to another level when comfortably winning the Group Two Prix Sandringham at Chantilly when last seen. She beat some Group One performers that day and is still entitled to plenty of improvement so should have enough to score.

15:50 - Clon Brulee carries top-weight in this competitive handicap, but he was impressive when landing the spoils at Newmarket last time and can continue his good form here on ground he appreciates. The likeable Spa's Dancer is also worthy of an interest. He was unsuited by the way the race developed on his last outing and is better judged on good seconds at Newbury and Redcar earlier this season.

16:25 This is a tight little nursery in which Among Angels and Sister Of Mercy will hopefully keep us in the hunt. Among Angels ran with credit in the Windsor Castle and was seemingly not right when disappointing last time out. With a break and the booking of Ryan Moore in his favour, he can bounce back at the main expense of Roger Charlton's Sister Of Mercy.

17:00 - David Simcock's Zain Empire rates a solid option here. He has shown signs of inexperience since opening his account on debut at Carlisle, but has been going the right way and can improve past more experienced rivals today.

Selections:

14:05 - 3, 16
14:40 - 4
15:15 - 1
15:50 - 1, 4
16:25 - 1, 2
17:00 - 2

=8 lines


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Timeform Radio Tips: Saturday August 30

"Hold Court has had just four tries over fences and has yet to get off the mark, though he might well have done but for falling at the last here in June..."

David Cleary returns with his best bets for a busy Saturday full of competitive action...

Sandown hosts the main afternoon card, with some competitive fare, but the quality is well spread around, with decent racing at Beverley, Chester and Newton Abbot as well. On a busy day, it's a couple of horses at the last two named venues make most appeal.

Chester's sprint handicap at 14.20 looks a solid opportunity for Ballesteros finally to come good for the Richard Fahey yard. Ballesteros has hinted that all his ability remains intact for his new yard this year and ran his best race for it at the Shergar Cup meeting at Ascot earlier this month. Ballesteros shaped well then on ground that would have been plenty fast enough for him, which promises more to come back on easier going this afternoon. Ballesteros is a course-and-distance winner, has a reasonable draw to track what is likely to be a strong pace and the servies of promising 5-lb claimer Jack Garritty for the first time. B Fifty Two is the main danger after his excellent run at York last week, but Ballesteros looks to have a lot going for him and can land the prize.

The Mildmay Memorial Chase at Newton Abbot (15.20) has an open look to it. Houston Dynimo has been the morning mover and is obviously interesting on just his second start for David Pipe. However, he has more on than when winning over hurdles at Southwell last time and looks short enough now. One of definite interest against him is his stable companion Shotavodka. He has a progressive profile, doesn't look to have been treated too harshly for his win at Haydock in the spring and may well be suited by the way this race is likely to be run. If he is fit after a break, then Shotavodka will be there or thereabouts.

At a much bigger price, it's also worth keeping Hold Court on side. He has had just four tries over fences and has yet to get off the mark, though he might well have done but for falling at the last here in June. Hold Court has taken on some promising sorts in novices but has acquitted himself with credit and could well have more to offer, now that he switches to handicaps. He is one of three runners for his trainer Evan Williams, Adam Wedge in the saddle, with stable jockey Paul Moloney riding Buck Mulligan. That shouldn't count against Hold Court particularly, but it appears to in his price, which is far bigger than it should be on form.

Recommended bets

Back Ballesteros @ 6.411/2 in the 14:20 at Chester
Back Shotavodka @ 7.06/1 and Hold Court @ 26.025/1 in the 15:20 at Newton Abbot


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August 27, 2014

Timeform US SmartPlays: Tuesday August 26

"We’re very hopeful that Rapid Dan can overturn the Morning Line favourite Put It Forward..."

Timeform's US team pick out their three best bets for Tuesday night's stateside action...

Gurkha looks to have a very good chance in the opener (22:25 BST) at Presque Isle Downs and represents a bit of value at the forecast 3 on the Morning Line. Since returning to Presque Isle she has won two of her four starts and finished second in one of the others and by our reckoning has shown form 10lb superior to the rivals she meets today. This run-of-the-mill starter allowance contest represents a drop in class relative to the race she contested last time and she promises to get the ideal stalking trip behind likely race leader I'am Toorific. She stays this trip very strongly. 

In the third (23:15 BST) at Presque Isle, an allowance contest over six and a half furlongs we're very hopeful that Rapid Dan can overturn the Morning Line favourite Put It Forward. The pair look to have this race between them on our ratings and though there isn't much to choose between them on their best form, Rapid Dan, who has won his last three races here, looks to have a clear edge on recent form.  He seems likely to sit second turning for home and from thereon can make the most of the 7lb he receives from Put It Forward, with the extra half furlong today promising to prompt a bit more improvement. 

With nothing appealing much at Mountaineer or Fort Erie our third bet also comes from Presque Isle. Tazered is a horse that has operated at a higher level at the NYRA tracks in the past and judged on his recent efforts he clearly retains much of his trailblazing speed. The seventh race (00:55 BST) at the Pennsylvania venue is a competitive affair, though nothing compared to what he has overcome before, and the drop back to five and a half furlongs is a further reason to expect him to go very close.   

Timeform US SmartPlays

Race 1 Presque Isle Downs (22:25 BST) win back #1 GURKHA @ 3.02/1 or longer
Race 3 Presque Isle Downs (23:15 BST) win back #2 RAPID DAN @ 3.211/5 or longer
Race 7 Presque Isle Downs (00:55 BST) win back #4 TAZERED @ 4.67/2 or longer 


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August 26, 2014

Timeform Radio Tips: Tuesday August 26

"Hopes N Dreams is now off a mark just 2 lb higher than when successful a year ago..."

David Cleary takes up his regular seat in the pundit's chair and advises two bets for Tuesday afternoon's action...

There are two half-decent afternoon cards for a Tuesday today and there are lots of absentees at Epsom, where the ground is too soft, and Ripon, where it's too firm, there look to be bets to be had at both venues.

At Ripon, in the feature handicap at 16:15, it may be worth taking a chance on Ty Gwr. He's not been seen out since last October and is off a much higher mark than he was then, due to a win on his penultimate outing in 2013. However, Ty Gwr is still well weighted on that form and the fitting of his usual hood and the booking of Mikey Ennis both suggest he won't want for fitness this afternoon. Four non runners (at the time of writing) mean his outside draw isn't the concern it might have been and there remains enough potential pace to think the race will be run to suit him.

There are even more non runners at Epsom, the field for the sprint handicap at 15:25 now halved. This is all to the advantage of last year's winner Hopes N Dreams, who just hasn't been able to dominate in big-field sprint handicaps since she won at Hamilton earlier in the summer. Hopes N Dreams has slipped in the weights as a result, now off a mark just 2 lb higher than when successful a year ago. With the three drawn inside her now absent, stall 4 gives her the inside position, which makes it even more likely that she can boss this small field. 

Recommended bets 

Back Ty Gwr @ 13.012/1 in the 16:15 at Ripon 
Back Hopes N Dreams @ 8.07/1 in the 15:25 at Epsom


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August 23, 2014

Timeform US SmartPlays: Saturday August 23

Timeform's North American team bring you bets from Saratoga and Woodbine on Saturday...

The third race (17:37 BST) on a marathon card at Saratoga, an allowance race on the turf, could well be a good opportunity for Blue Pigeon to get back to winning ways. The son of Mizzen Mast only made his reappearance here last month having been off the track since November and though he finished behind two that oppose him again, he shaped very well, better than the two ahead of him arguably, doing too much chasing a strong pace before those exertions and lack of a recent run found him out. He should strip fitter today and makes plenty of appeal at the forecast price given his 2013 form is the best in the field by some way.
In the seventh race (21:19 BST) at Woodbine, a claimer over six furlongs on the synthetic surface, Marcian looks to have a good chance of extending her winning sequence to four. She hasn't run since May, but that's not a worry as her victory that day followed a seven-month break, and she has an excellent record over this course and distance. She's not beholden to any particular tactics which is useful given her outside draw but it wouldn't surprise to see her ridden prominently given the lack of competition for the early lead. She has the best form by some way by our estimation. 

Sky Painter hasn't been seen since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf - she finished ninth to Chriselliam - but a nine-month absence is seldom a negative so far as her trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is concerned and the fact she runs with Lasix first time in the thirteenth race (23: 20 BST) at Saratoga is what has really made up sit up and take notice. McLaughlin is awarded maximum marks by our TimeformUS partners for his record with horses running on medication first time and anything like a repeat of her best 2013 form would see her win this race readily, in which case she is no 4 shot as the Morning Line suggests.     

Timeform US SmartPlays:
Race 3 Saratoga (17:37 BST) win back #10 BLUE PIGEON at 3.613/5 or longer
Race 7 Woodbine (21:19 BST) win back #9 MARCIAN at 2.89/5 or longer
Race 13 Saratoga (23:20 BST) win back #5 SKY PAINTER at 3.613/5 or longer 


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Timeform Irish SmartPlays: Saturday August 23

"There are plenty who line up with live chances but one for our money is Hasanour for the in-form Mick Halford yard..."

Timeform's Irish team bring you their three best bets from the Curragh on Saturday...

We kick off proceedings with the Group 3 Renaissance Stakes over six furlongs (15:10) and it looks a smart field for the grade. The one to keep on side is Maarek, who should be sharper for his recent comeback effort at this track and can return to his best to add to his Duke of York success back in May. In truth he might not need to be at the peak of his powers to win, and providing he's progressed from last time he should have enough in the locker to account for today's rivals. 

It's a handicap over a mile under consideration next (15:45) and there are plenty who line up with live chances. The one for our money is Hasanour for the in-form Mick Halford yard, who finally delivered on his considerable promise at Galway at the end of last month. The visually-impressive manner of his victory gave no reason to suggest a 7 lb rise would temper his chances, and he's taken to go in again, although Focussed is feared. 

The final bet on the card comes in the listed Curragh Stakes for two-year-olds (16:20) and given that Ainippe looked a potentially smart prospect when making a winning start to her career at Naas last month, she's taken to take the step up to pattern company in her stride. The Great War merits respect now he's been given a drop in grade but the selection looked one to watch on debut and can take this on her way to bigger and better things. 

Timeform Irish SmartPlays
All at The Curragh

Back Maarek in the 15:10
Back Hasanour in the 15:45
Back Ainippe in the 16:20


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Timeform Radio Tips: Saturday August 23

Mighty Yar, Clever Cookie and Sir Walter Scott are all relatively unexposed and make clear appeal, but, at longer odds, Mighty Yar's stable companion Retirement Plan and Irish challenger Mutual Regard look worth an interest...

David Cleary puts up two long-priced Ebor punts, as well as a couple of other selections on Saturday...

The climax of the York Ebor meeting, the Ebor itself, takes centre stage this afternoon, with a field of twenty set to line up at 15.50. Pallasator has been a warm order for the race ever since his victory at Ascot a month ago, the pick of the weights under a 4 lb penalty for that success. That form has been boosted subsequently and he holds an obvious chance, particularly with the step back up in trip sure to benefit him. However, he's an obvious horse's price and there is every reason in such a strong handicap to look for value elsewhere.

Mighty Yar, Clever Cookie and Sir Walter Scott are all relatively unexposed and make clear appeal, but, at longer odds, Mighty Yar's stable companion Retirement Plan and Irish challenger Mutual Regard look worth an interest. Retirement Plan ran against Pallasator at Ascot, well backed on the day but below expectations, likely to have needed the run on his first start since the spring. He got back on track with a win over two miles at the Shergar Cup and although that isn't the strongest piece of form, Retirement Plan remains unexposed and he has the potential to progress again now he's back on track. 

Mutual Regard comes here after just two runs this year since joining Johnny Murtagh. Progressive at three, he won well at the Curragh on his return, that better form on which to judge him than his run in listed company behind Pale Mimosa at Leopardstown last time. Mutual Regard may well have more to offer. Also to the advantage of both Mutual Regard and Retirement Plan is that they are likely to be ridden handily in a race with a striking lack of potential pace.

That isn't a concern in the Gimcrack at 15.15, in which Jungle Cat can take advantage of not having to face Ivawood and land the spoils. Jungle Cat has been placed in pattern company on his last three starts, each time showing good speed but the last twice paying for pressing on with a superior rival in the shape of the best two-year-old colt around. With a flat track likely to play to his strengths, Jungle Cat can prove too good in what looks a slightly substandard renewal.

Away from York, there's a fascinating contest in prospect for the listed Hopeful Stakes at Newmarket (15.55). Tropics, who won this last year, and Intrinsic head the market, one a proven good-class sprinter, the other very much on the up after his win in the Stewards' Cup last time. While Intrinsic looks a pattern performer in the making and his form last time is strong, Tropics already is one, with a career-best run in the July Cup last time out. Intrinsic needs to improve a fair bit if Tropics runs up to that form and the latter has to be the bet, given there's little between them in the market. Tropics' proven ability to handle Newmarket's July course is another factor in his favour.  
Recommended bets: 
Back Retirement Plan @ 30.029/1 and Mutual Regard @ 26.025/1 in the 15.50 at York 
Back Jungle Cat @ 9.08/1 in the 15.15 at York
Back Tropics @ 4.57/2 in the 15.55 at Newmarket



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