The BMW PGA Championship: Course form is critical, says The Punter

Our man takes a good look at England's only European Tour event of the year, where the entire Ryder Cup team will be putting in an appearance. What will it take to win around Surrey's finest? Read Steve's in-depth preview here...

Tournament History
The first BMW PGA Championship was played at Wentworth back in 1972. Three years later it moved to Royal St.Georges, which hosted the event for the next three years, and then for the six years from 1978 to 1983 it was played at a number of different venues before it returned to Wentworth in 1984, where it's been staged ever since. This will by the 42nd edition of the European Tour's flagship tournament and again, sadly, it's the only European Tour event of the season to be held in England.

Venue
Wentworth (West Course), Surrey, England.

Course Details
Par 72 -7,302 yards
Stroke Index in 2012 - 73.25
Opened in 1926 and designed by Harry Colt, the West Course, also referred to as Burma Road, has undergone a series of alterations in recent years, under the supervision of Ernie Els.

All the greens were remodelled in 2009/10 but the biggest change of all came on the par five 18th hole. At the mercy to modern equipment, the old 18th was an almost given birdie and a great eagle chance but now, with a dirty great stream snaking its way in front of the green, it's a stunning risk/reward finishing hole.

Poor Ernie had to put up with a lot of criticism in 2010 when players first met with the new design and in truth, it didn't quite work. Most players attempting to find the green in two found the water and the vast majority decided to play it as a three-shot hole so prior to last year's renewal the landing area was extended and flattened out and the green was rebuilt.

After two years as a ridiculously tough par 4, the 12th hole was changed back to a par five before last year's renewal too and it finished the week as the second easiest hole. Only the par 5 4th played easier.

Wentworth is a tight, tree-lined, fairly flat course with tricky-to-read greens that run at just 10 on the stimpmeter.

Check out the link below for more on the course.

Useful Sites
Event Site
Course Tour
Twitter Link
Tee Times
Weather Forecast

TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports - 10am on Thursday and Friday and 12.30pm on Saturday and Sunday. Highlights only over the weekend on BBC.

Last Five Winners
2012 - Luke Donald -15
2011 - Luke Donald -6 (Playoff) (Par 71)
2010 - Simon Khan -6 (Par 71)
2009 - Paul Casey -17
2008 - Miguel Angel Jimenez -11 (Playoff)

What will it take to win the BMW PGA Championship?
Being able to play in windy conditions and having the experience of the Wentworth wind is crucial. As well as a yardage book, the players are issued with a wind map but just how much it helps I've no idea. It can be quite baffling at times, you can be in one spot on the course and barely feel the wind but then you can walk along a short while and it'll be blowing a gale! The course plays very much harder in breezy conditions and it can be very confusing for those with little course experience.

A straight game is definitely preferable to a long one and patience is a prerequisite too. To win here you need to bide your time, avoid trouble and make your score on the long holes.

Is there an angle in?
Course form stands up really well and it often pays to follow those that have shown a liking to the place already. The likes of Rory McIlroy, Ian Poulter, Graeme McDowell and Padraig Harrington always seem to struggle and are simply not worth persevering with. In contrast, plenty of players, and some of them far from fashionable, play well here year after year. You need to oppose the Wentworth wobblers and get with the Wentworth winners.

Is there an identikit winner?
British players, and English players in particular have a great record in the event and an Englishman has won the last four renewals.

There have been some big-priced winners in the past and the unheralded Simon Khan took the title in 2010, the first year the event was played following the major course changes, but over the last two years the very best have been slugging it out come Sunday.

Lee Westwood pushed Luke Donald all the way two years ago and last year it was Justin Rose. It's a sterner test than ever now, especially in the wind, and I'll be surprised if we get a shock winner this year.

In-Play Tactics
At the time of writing, the forecast suggests strong winds will be an ever-present over the first two days, before conditions improve over the weekend. It's going to be fairly cold too, so don't expect low-scoring. It may be that the market doesn't quite recognise a good score on Thursday morning and there might be a bit of value about early on.

Ordinarily I'd expect around - 6 to be leading after day one but I fancy it could be considerably higher this year.

With two par 5s to finish, anything can happen and big swings can occur late on. There were only eight eagles made all week on 17 and 18 last year (four on each) but a birdie-birdie finish isn't uncommon. And nor is a bogey-bogey finish either. Luke Donald blew a great chance here in 2010 when he double-bogeyed the 17th and now that there's water in front of the 18th, anything can happen there too.

Market Leaders
Nick Faldo won this event four times, and Bernard Langer and Colin Montgomerie both did so on three occasions, so multiple wins are fairly common. Monty won his three-in-a-row between 1998 and 2000 and Luke Donald has an excellent chance of emulating him this time around.

Second and third favourites, Rory McIlroy and Lee Westwood, both have largely disappointing form around Wentworth and both are readily dismissed at the prices, and so too is Justin Rose.

With two second placed finishes around Wentworth, Rose has the course form in the book but he's been off the boil for a while now and his missed cut at the Players Championship hardly bodes well.

The entire winning Ryder Cup team from Medinah is present this week and I have to wonder if that's the only reason Sergio Garcia is playing. He's been quite well-supported in the market but given he hasn't played in this event since 2000 I'm more than happy to pass him up. Romilly Evans looks at the Spaniard in depth in this piece here.

Selections
Although I've only had a very small wager on Luke Donald, I felt I couldn't leave him out of my calculations entirely. He isn't quite at the top of his game at present but nobody in the field plays Wentworth as well as him and I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised to see him win it for a third straight year.

I've outlined the case for South African, Branden Grace, here and for small stakes only I've given his fellow countryman, Ernie Els, one more try at a big price.

The Big Easy used to live at Wentworth and he owned the Volvo Match Play here, winning it a record seven times, but for some bizarre reason, he's never won this one. He had to deflect an awful lot of flak two years ago over the course changes and then last year he lost the plot over the watering of the greens. Hopefully he can have a more peaceful week this year and just concentrate on contending.

He's been putting well of late, he'll be in the minority when it comes to being able to figure out the wind over the first two days and he was far too big at 70.069/1.

Playing on a medical exemption twelve months ago, and following five straight missed cuts, Richard Sterne really caught the eye with his 6th placed finish. He was also third here in 2007 and over the last six months on the European Tour, he's the number one performer on the par fives. He's already a winner this season, having claimed the Joburg Open in February, and I can see him going really well this week.

Paul Lawrie has a great record at Wentworth and the tough conditions on Thursday and Friday may play to his strengths. He's not the fastest starter and often has too much to do over the weekend but it might be a bit of grind over the first two days this year and that should suit him.

Putting has been his weakness this year but he tweeted yesterday that the "putter had been good this week".

My final selection is Brett Rumford, who I was very surprised to get 120.0119/1 about. Rumford has won his last two stroke play events and was 4th here in 2006, so he has both current and course form. He grew up in Perth, playing the tree-lined Lake Karrinyup Country Club and contending with the notorious Fremantle Doctor. He has one of the finest short games in the world at present, it won't matter a jot how hard the wind blows and there's no way he should be trading at a tripe-figure price.

Pre-Event Selections
Luke Donald @ 9.617/2
Branden Grace @ 55.054/1
Ernie Els @ 70.069/1
Richard Sterne @ 70.069/1 (Fixed Odds)
Paul Lawrie @ 75.074/1
Brett Rumford @ 120.0119/1

I'll be back later on with a preview of the week's other event, The Crowne Plaza Invitational.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

There are no comments on this article.

Product reviews and advice for best reference

Grand National Course Guide: No sitting on the fence at Aintree

Features / Adam Brookes / 01 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Carnage at Becher's Brook in 2004

"Becher's Brook has provided the opponents of the National with some of their most effective ammunition over the years..."

Timeform's Adam Brookes discusses the obstacles that stand in the way of the 40 runners and riders who'll line up for the 2012 Aintree Grand National on April 14...

The Grand National is run over four miles and four furlongs and horses are asked to jump a total of 30 fences. Recent safety changes saw the height of the toe-boards on all fences increased to 14 inches, while the obstacles, which have always been twice as wide for the National as those on most other tracks, can all now be bypassed, as was proved in trying circumstances last year.

Upon the tapes going up, the runners cross the Melling Road for the first time and charge to the first, the adrenaline rush often the reason for the fence's high proportion of fallers; Gay Trip (in 1971), Aldaniti (1982) and Hallo Dandy (1985) all got caught out there when defending their titles.

The runners then take in Fence No 2, known as The Fan after a mare who repeatedly refused there in the 19th century, and jump three more before they reach the first renowned stumbling block, the notorious Becher's Brook.

Becher's Brook (No 6 & 22 - 4ft 10in fence) has provided the opponents of the National with some of their most effective ammunition over the years, the death of housewife's choice Dark Ivy at the fence in 1987 one of the most notable. Corrections were made to Becher's ahead of the 1990 running, namely the brook being partly filled in and the bank on the landing side being regraded, and further modifications were undertaken prior to the 2005 race, the ditch on the landing side fitted with a wooden cover and non-slip rubber to make it impossible for horses to fall back into the ditch. There have been only two Grand National fatalities at this fence since the 1990 modifications, Dooney's Gate unfortunately one of them 12 months ago.

Foinavon (No 7 & 23 - 4ft 6in fence), which of course got its name thanks to the carnage sparked by the riderless Popham Down in 1967, is the joint-smallest of the standard National fences. Having scaled the heights of Becher's it's not uncommon for horses and jockeys to get caught out being casual at Foinavon, anticipating another drop on the landing side.

Jockey's cutting the 90° angle of Canal Turn (No 8 & 24 - 5ft fence) is one of the most iconic Grand National sights but the fence often provides plenty of problems. Dual Gold Cup winner Easter Hero famously stood too far off the jump in 1928, his hanging on the fence causing a spectacular pile-up amongst the 41 horses behind, while third-fence unseat Paddy's Return took out 10 at the same spot in 2001. The 'catching pen' on the outside of Canal Turn has proved notably successful in preventing loose horses continuing back onto the main racecourse since its introduction ahead of the 2010 race.

Valentine's Brook (No 9 & 25 - ditch behind 5ft fence), formerly known as the Second Brook, comes up directly after Canal Turn and requires a good leap. Valentine's has been relatively drama free in recent times, though Ballycassidy came a right cropper there in 2006 (see picture) and Plaisir d'Estruval and Prudent Honour both met their demise after jumping Valentine's in the Topham Chase of 2010. Ballabriggs made his only mistake when winning last year at Valentine's second time round.

Three plain fences, a ditch, an open ditch, and the Melling Road follow on the first circuit before runners come face-to-face with The Chair.

The Chair (No 15 - 5ft 2in fence, 11ft spread), along with the upcoming Water Jump, are the only two impediment's scaled once, both being take on the first circuit. Although it takes some jumping, The Chair generally isn't as dangerous as its 'tallest fence on the course' status suggests, it's lengthy approach possibly a reason for only 14 horses succumbing to it in the 18 years since the void National of '93. That said, the fence has caught out numerous previous winners over the years, including Russian Hero, Ayala and Rubstic, while Silver Birch fell in the race a year prior to winning the 2007 edition.

The Water Jump (No 16 - 3ft 6in fence, 12ft 6in spread) is situated directly in front of the stands and, as the only fence less than 4ft 6in in height, is the smallest obstacle on course. The Water Jump is not usually responsible for many casualties, though it was the scene of Foinavon being brought down when defending his title in 1968.

And so, having successfully flew/clambered over 30 fences of the finest Lake District spruce, those still left in contention are left to run straight and true down the famous Aintree 'elbow'.

However, as we all know, the winner can never be crowned until crossing the line, with the 1956 collapse of the Queen Mother's Devon Loch perhaps the most famous reversal. A weary Crisp snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in '73, while Gold Cup hero Garrison Savannah treaded an ocean in the closing stages of the '91 renewal, with What's Up Boys (2002) and Clan Royal (2004) both suffering similar fates in recent times.

.......
Read all the latest Grand National news, tips and features on betting.betfair.

The McCain family have long held a certain affiliation with Aintree and the victory of Ballabriggs in the 2011 renewal of the Grand National marked their fifth win in the contest......

Timeform's Adam Brookes delves into the history books and reports his findings on the world's most famous steeplechase, the Grand National at Aintree......

Fresh from compiling a similar piece for the Cheltenham Festival, Timeform's Adam Brookes provides his A to Z for one of his favourite races in the whole calendar, the Aintree Grand National......

Amazon Sports Center

Donald McCain: Ballabriggs bang on course for Aintree

Donald McCain / Donald McCain / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ballabriggs is on course to defend his Grand National crown.

"as well as Overturn, I would think that the likes of Absinthe, Sud Pacifique, Constant Contact and Bourne will all end up running on the Flat at some stage....."

Another steady week for the McCain team as attentions turn to Aintree......and, whisper it, the Flat season.

There's a bit of a lull between Cheltenham and Aintree and we have a quiet weekend lined up, albeit there are a couple who look to have decent chances.

Things have carried on nicely this week with a few more winners and the horses seem to be holding their form very well, despite some of them having been kept very busy.

We're up to 137 winners for the year now which is certainly beyond any expectations I had at the start of the season.

We look to have a strong team building up for Aintree, even with Cinders And Ashes now missing the meeting, and it's a track at which I am obviously very keen to do well at.

Ballabriggs was the star of the show last year and things are ticking over nicely with him at home. I had been keen to give him another racecourse gallop between Kelso and the National but, with the weather as it has been, there haven't really been any suitable opportunities.

He's doing plenty of work at home though and I couldn't be happier with him in the build up - we'll just keep chipping away and hopefully we will get him there in the same form as last year.

I was asked the other day if I was likely to be keeping many going on the Flat through the summer. It's not something I have tended to do in the past - I know Overturn has been a star - but we have quite a few 85+ rated Flat horses and, reluctantly, I might have to have more of a look this time round!

There will be a few of them kept on the go - as well as Overturn, I would think that the likes of Absinthe, Sud Pacifique, Constant Contact and Bourne will all end up running on the Flat at some stage.

They won't be running for the sake of running, but if the right race pops up at the big meetings, they will be there to take their chance.

Cheltenham Festival winner Cinders And Ashes will bypass Aintree....

Donald has one of his leading juvenile hurdlers in action at Hexham on Sunday....

Donald has a strong team in action at his local track on Saturday....

Amazon Sports Center

Golden Slipper: Waterhouse sextet still on course for Rosehill

News / Gary Crispe / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Gai Waterhouse will be busy on April 7

"Ridden from off the pace, No Looking Back found the line strongly under no pressure in her 1050m heat to be beaten only a head in 64.5 seconds..."

Gai Waterhouse remains hopeful of starting up to six two-year-olds in the $3.5 million Golden Slipper Stakes at Rosehill on Saturday week writes Timeform's man 'Down Under' Gary Crispe.

With just two qualifying races remaining for the world's richest two-year-old race Waterhouse has four of her imposing juvenile team safely in the top 18 and another three who will make last ditch bids to gain a start at Rosehill on Saturday.

Her Golden Slipper team is led by the unbeaten colt Pierro ([6.6] second favourite), who is ballot exempt after he added last Saturday's Todman Stakes to his previous wins in the Breeders Plate and Silver Slipper Stakes.

She also has No Looking Back, Driefontein and Raceway assured of starts.

No Looking Back, relegated to second on protest by stablemate Driefontein in the Magic Millions Classic in January and second to Melbourne star Samaready in the Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes at Caulfield, is sixth on the current order of entry with $220,000 eligible prizemoney.

Driefointein is eighth with $198,000 and Raceway 10th on $127,000.

No Looking Back continued her Slipper preparation in a Randwick barrier trial on Monday morning when she was ridden by her Slipper jockey Craig Williams. Ridden from off the pace, No Looking Back found the line strongly under no pressure in her 1050m heat to be beaten only a head in 64.5 seconds, leaving Williams happy with her condition.

Waterhouse resisted the temptation to trial Driefontein and Raceway and they will go straight to the Slipper on Saturday week without another race.

However, Waterhouse will try to qualify another two more runners for the Golden Slipper in Saturday's final lead-up races, the Pago Pago Stakes and Magic Night Stakes, races that offer the winners ballot exemption.

She will start Pure Hustle against unbeaten boom colt All Too Hard (half-brother to Black caviar) in the Pago Pago while the fillies Valerio and Later Gator will contest the Magic Night Stakes.

Pure Hustle, an impressive winner on debut before disappointing when resuming at Randwick, is currently 34th on the order of entry while Black Opal Stakes third Later Gator is 36th.

Valerio, a bold second in the Sweet Embrace Stakes at Randwick on March 17, is outside the top 40.

Trainer Anthony Cummings has said that his three-year-old Strike The Stars will swerve the Doncaster Mile and instead head for the Rosehill Guineas on his way to the Australian Derby......

Last year's winner Sweet Lightning has been taken out of the Lincoln, in which 2010 victor Penitent will now carry top weight at Doncaster on Saturday......

Godolphin's Gamilati has undergone surgery to remove a chip from her near-fore ankle and may now be forced to miss the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 6.......

Though the culmination of the all-weather season, it's difficult to see Winter Derby day at Lingfield as anything other than the beginning on the new Flat season given the quality of horses and the promising performances on show. David Johnson takes a look at them from the Timeform ratings perspective......

Amazon Sports Center

Course specialist Pasco to go well again at Newbury on Saturday?

News / Timeform / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Newbury Racecourse

"Warner reported how they have had to wait for better going for Pasco..."

Owner Terry Warner is hoping Pasco's affinity for the Berkshire track will stand him in good stead in Saturday's two-and-a-half-mile handicap chase due off at 15:10...

Swiss-bred Pasco, rated 140 over fences by Timeform but also having a 'squiggle' (indicates suspect temperament), has won three times at Newbury and also finished runner-up to Big Fella Thanks and Mount Oscar in course-and-distance handicaps since March 2010.

The roan nine-year-old, trained by Betfair columnist Paul Nicholls, has not won since taking a Huntingdon novice chase in February 2009 but has been in the frame on all of his last seven completed starts.

However, Pasco was off the track for 10 months prior to returning this winter (had breathing op in interim) and when it's considered that the better of his two efforts was when last of four to Time For Rupert in three-mile a minor event at Newbury, it's clear that he's going to have to bounce back to his best to be competitive.

Warner reported how they have had to wait for better going for Pasco and that he is a lightly-raced horse, presumably owing to physical problems that have meant he has been hard to train.

Mad Max is another horse that goes well at Newbury, though his trio of wins were in a pair of bumpers and over hurdles when he was trained by Nicky Henderson.

Now in the care of Neil Mulholland, the 10-year-old, who's career has been plagued by wind problems, was well below form when third to Giorgio Quercus at Haydock on his first outing since the stable switch.

While his new trainer believes the the track and the good ground will suit him, he looks up against it.

Timeform top-rated is Fine Parchment, winner of the race 12 months ago, and his trainer Charlie Mann is confident the 138-rated chaser can follow up though admitting that the horse had felt pretty sorry for himself for a while after getting stuck in the mud on Aintree in December.

Of the others, Gary Moore feels Fix The Rib would prefer to go right-handed, Henry Daly is saddling Pickamus as he's not guaranteed to get in at Cheltenham, and Jo Davis believes Passato has got plenty on his plate.

Alan King has expressed how Araldur is the biggest horse is his yard and, therefore, will enjoy the course at Newbury better than he did the undulations at Cheltenham.

Full betting for the is now available for the Barbury International Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase by clicking HERE.

....................
Timeform ratings were in great form last Saturday! Among 5 top-rated winners at Kempton was Nacarat (BSP [5.58]). Click HERE for today's cards & ratings.

Likeable 14-year-old Hello Bud bids to roll back the year's in the staying veterans' chase at Newbury on Saturday and put himself under consideration for the Grand National at Aintree on April 14......

Grand National hope Backstage is injured and out for the rest of the season......

Timeform look ahead to a weekend featuring a number of Grand National hopefuls running at Newbury and Kelso on Saturday, as well as quality Irish and International action on Sunday......

Amazon Sports Center

Irish Weekend Review: Prince on course for Aintree

Weekend Preview/Review / Timeform / 28 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Graham Wylie: Owner of Prince de Beauchene.

"Prince de Beauchene looks the outstanding candidate for the National at this point..."

Naas and Fairyhouse provided the Irish action this weekend, and we cast our eyes over some interesting horses for the weeks ahead, including the new favourite for the Grand National...

The opener at Fairyhouse was a Grade 2 juvenile hurdle which saw the debut of the much-heralded Minsk, who was so progressive on the Flat for John Oxx last autumn. In the event it was a rather underwhelming start as he went down by a neck to Burrenbridge Lodge, with Bat Masterson close up in third, but he was reportedly found to be suffering from a throat infection post race and will now head back to John Oxx's yard to race on the Flat before returning for a novice hurdle campaign next term. He may well have prevailed here anyway with slicker jumps at the last two flights, but on the downside the pair he split look exposed and no better than useful.

The feature event on the card was the Bobbyjo Chase over an extended three miles. This has been used as a stepping stone towards the Grand National in recent years and Prince de Beauchene was justifiably shortened (now trading at [9.8]) for the Aintree showpiece after an impressive 6 length victory over Black Apalachi.

He jumped well on the whole (only mistake at the fifth), took over two out and eased clear from there, value plenty more than the winning margin. He's still lightly raced, especially for this yard, and looks the outstanding candidate for the National at this point. Black Apalachi was returning from nearly two years on the sidelines so this has to go down as a pleasing display, but while he has an excellent record over the National fences a mark of 154 looks very harsh given that he is now well into the veteran stage of his career.

Sunday's card at Naas also threw up a Grand National contender as Seabass made it six wins on the bounce in the two-mile Grade 2 chase in spite of the trip. In truth it wasn't a strong race for the grade, with Tranquil Sea seemingly a shadow of his former self and Saludos hard to place with his Grade 2 penalty, but Seabass did show a cracking attitude to get back up and win by a length from Zaarito, who is on the comeback trail after an injury-lagued couple of years. Seabass will warrant respect at Aintree, certain to be 'well in' to an extent after this, though on a cautionary note his jumping isn't always foot perfect and he's yet to try beyond three miles.

The other graded action on the card saw wins for Rathlin and Felix Yonger. Rathlin produced another fine display of jumping to defeat Shot From The Hip by eight and a half lengths in the Woodlands Park 100 Club Nas Na Riogh Novice Chase over two and a half miles. He's set to bypass Cheltenham this term, but the Powers Gold Cup is reportedly on the agenda and he'll look well worth his place at that higher level, such is the impression created since he underwent a breathing operation and was fitted with a tongue strap.

Felix Yonger overcame the drop back to two miles in the novice hurdle half an hour later and continued the fine run being enjoyed by Graham Wylie-owned horses who have moved from Howard Johnson to Willie Mullins, the overall record of the quartet who have made it to the track now seven out of ten. Felix Yonger has the scope for further progression, too, but one of the Grade 1 novices at Cheltenham will require a marked step up for him to get competitive, while his target remains up in the air, so he makes little appeal for ante-post betting purposes.

....................
Timeform ratings are in fine form! Among 5 top-rated winners at Kempton on Saturday was Nacarat (BSP [5.58]). Click HERE for today's cards & ratings.

Timeform review a weekend featuring a win for Nacarat in the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton alongside a whole host of Cheltenham pointers......

Timeform preview an weekend that includes some last-minute Cheltenham Festival trials at Kempton and Grand National trials at both Newcastle and Fairyhouse......

Timeform look back at a weekend featuring a winning return for Riverside Theatre in the Betfair Ascot Chase, a double for Donald McCain on the Ascot card and a battling victory for Giles Cross in Haydock's Grand National Trial......

Amazon Sports Center

Cheltenham 2011: Unaccompanied on course for Triumph triumph

Latest News / Adam Brookes / 25 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Current favourite Grandouet, pictured, has Unaccompanied to fear in the Triumph.

"Unaccompanied comes in with the same Timeform Rating as Grandouet, and the verdict is she’s got a very strong chance of proving good enough to win at Cheltenham."

Dermot Weld horses are less frequently seen on National Hunt courses these days, but Timeform's Adam Brookes reckons the multiple Irish Flat Champion trainer could be in the Cheltenham winners' enclosure in March.

Anyone who took the hint when Weld's three-year-old filly Unaccompanied made her hurdling debut on New Year's Eve, wouldn't have been disappointed. Just two months on, she has since added a Grade 1 success at Leopardstown to her Punchestown win, and her owner's yesterday confirmed she's on course for the Triumph, but how does she currently fair for Cheltenham domination?

As things stand, the current ratings-topper is ex-French gelding Sam Winner, who shot to the head of the market after his first two hurdle victories for Paul Nicholls, when romping up the Cheltenham hill before Christmas. Admittedly, the wheels almost came off last time at Chepstow, when he didn't pick up as expected before fading into fourth behind Marsh Warbler, but in front of him that day were subsequent winners Smad Place and Houblon des Obeaux, so the form does looks strong. Connections, and backers, will be hoping that the two-month break he's now enjoying will have revitalised him come Cheltenham, and he returns to the form that allowed him to achieve such a high rating earlier in the season.

Close behind is Grandouet, current favourite for the race and another former French juvenile. From a ratings point of view, the performance that established him as a serious Triumph contender was at Newbury in late December, when giving weight and a comfortable beating to his stable-companion, and subsequent winner, A Media Luz, as brushing aside the fair Two Kisses last time merely confirmed he was in good heart. It remains to be seen whether his current form is good enough to win such a competitive race, but we have garnished his rating with a '+', indicating that he could be better than we've been able to rate him, and, consequently, it comes as little surprise that he's favourite.

The aforementioned Unaccompanied comes in with the same Timeform Rating as Grandouet, and the verdict is she's got a very strong chance of proving good enough to win at Cheltenham. When you consider she's an unbeaten Grade 1 winner, whose form puts her almost at the top of the tree, add in the fact she has the possibility of significant improvement, and it's clear that to see that she's going to be a force to be reckoned with come March. She looks the most likely horse to land the prize for Ireland since Scolardy's win in 2002.

Following the top three is another filly in A Media Luz, who seemed to have curtailed her tendency to pull hard throughout her races when taking full advantage of a straightforward task at Huntingdon last time, impressively coming home 18 lengths clear of her nearest pursuer. She too is capable of better, and is by no means a stable second-string.

Chepstow Grade 1 winner, and conqueror of four of his potential rivals here, Marsh Warbler is in pouncing distance but has to step up a bit on what he's achieved so far. However, despite the fact he has yet to race on ground better than good to soft over hurdles, he acts on good to firm on the Flat, so the ground at Cheltenham isn't likely to be the biggest factor.

A touch behind these come a clutch of horses who seemingly have to improve to get involved. The most likely to do so are the trio of Smad Place, Third Intention and Houblon des Obeaux.

Smad Place and Houblon des Obeaux have both won since finishing behind Marsh Warbler, outlining the fact that he's going to have a struggle to confirm the form over two improving rivals, whilst Third Intention has spoiled his chances of remaining unbeaten so far by being too keen, but remains a capable outsider. The fact that they usually go very quickly in this race could play right into his hands.

Of the others, Local Hero now has a lot to prove whilst Sailors Warn, and more so Fearless Falcon, are exposed and would appear to be not good enough for such a competitive race.

Dermot Weld horses are less frequently seen on National Hunt courses these days, but Timeform's Adam Brookes reckons the multiple Irish Flat Champion trainer could be in the Cheltenham winners' enclosure in March....

The Timeform Radio team took a camera to Barbury Castle this week to get Alan King's views on all his potential runners at the 2011 Cheltenham Festival......

Arkle hopeful Starluck makes his eagerly anticipated chase debut at Huntingdon on Thursday, but will he be able to transfer his hurdling ability to the bigger obstacles, and who does he have to fear most at Cheltenham?...

Betfair website

Handicappers' Corner: Three on course for Cheltenham after weekend wins

Handicappers' Corner / Timeform / 13 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Tony McCoy: The Champion Jockey was fairly downbeat after Binocular’s success

"Whether you would be rushing out to back him [Binocular] at [4.9] for such a wide-open renewal of the Champion after this display is another matter"

Timeform handicapper Gregg Taylor analyses the performances of three winners from Saturday who are all set to be seen next on the opening day of the Festival...

Binocular (h168) took his tally to two from three for the season but he was far less convincing than he had been in the Christmas Hurdle as he defeated three rivals in the two-mile listed contest at Sandown. The race turned into a virtual exercise gallop for the Champion Hurdler, left with only his stablemate Ruthenoise (h122) to beat from two out, and he needed only to record a bare figure some two stones below his best (139++).

He's certainly best judged on the form of his Kempton success last month and will no doubt be fully tuned up to be back to that level at Cheltenham, though whether you would be rushing out to back him at [4.9] for such a wide-open renewal of the Champion after this display is another matter.

In contrast, his stable-companion Oscar Whisky (h163p) was impressive in landing the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las on the same afternoon by eight lengths from Black Jack Blues (h147). He faced a simple task on the day against a quartet of inferior rivals, but not many of the contenders he'll face in the Champion Hurdle have created as visually a striking impression as he has for both his victories this season.

The runner-up had the run of the race thanks to the less forceful tactics employed on Barizan and he ran close to the form that had seen him win a course-and-distance handicap earlier in the campaign. It's also worth pointing out that a time comparison with the earlier two-mile novice won by Sprinter Sacre works out well, especially considering that the pace in this race wasn't as strong as it might have been, with Black Jack Blues getting to the fourth only a second faster than the leader in the novice.

Medermit (c148) now sits towards the head of the Timeform novice chase ratings following his victory in a good renewal of the two-and-a-half mile Grade 1 novice at Sandown. Alan King's seven-year-old showed his best form yet despite idling on the run-in, needing to be ridden out in the end after jumping/travelling well. He holds entries in the Golden Miller and the Ryanair, but is reportedly on course to tackle the Arkle, with the drop back to two miles unlikely to pose him any problems.

Captain Chris (c145) finished runner-up for the third successive start over fences but, with his jumping generally more assured than previously, he demonstrated here that he's nevertheless going to be a serious contender for whichever race he goes for at the Festival. The longer trip of the Golden Miller is likely to benefit him, though the Arkle is apparently the preferred engagement for him at this stage, too.

Mr Gardner (c138p) was quickly stepped up to this level after a facile chasing debut success at Huntingdon and he acquitted himself well in running close to the pick of his hurdles form. He faded after pecking badly two out, whilst a number of those who finished behind him were undone to a greater extent by their jumping.

Timeform handicapper Gregg Taylor analyses the performances of three winners from Saturday who are all set to be seen next on the opening day of the Festival......

Timeform look ahead to what next week has to offer, which includes the Betfair Chase at Ascot on Saturday as well as Haydock's Grand National Trial......

The Cheltenham showpiece; jumps racing's Blue Riband; the Gold Cup: whatever you call it, the feature on the last day of the Cheltenham Festival remains the most prestigious race at the most prestigious jumps meeting in the world. With six weeks to go until the big day, Keith Melrose takes a look at the main contenders....

Betfair website

Handicappers' Corner: Three on course for Cheltenham after weekend wins

Handicappers' Corner / Timeform / 08 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Tony McCoy: The Champion Jockey was fairly downbeat after Binocular’s success

"Whether you would be rushing out to back him [Binocular] at [4.9] for such a wide-open renewal of the Champion after this display is another matter"

Timeform handicapper Gregg Taylor analyses the performances of three winners from Saturday who are all set to be seen next on the opening day of the Festival...

Binocular (h168) took his tally to two from three for the season but he was far less convincing than he had been in the Christmas Hurdle as he defeated three rivals in the two-mile listed contest at Sandown. The race turned into a virtual exercise gallop for the Champion Hurdler, left with only his stablemate Ruthenoise (h122) to beat from two out, and he needed only to record a bare figure some two stones below his best (139++).

He's certainly best judged on the form of his Kempton success last month and will no doubt be fully tuned up to be back to that level at Cheltenham, though whether you would be rushing out to back him at [4.9] for such a wide-open renewal of the Champion after this display is another matter.

In contrast, his stable-companion Oscar Whisky (h163p) was impressive in landing the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las on the same afternoon by eight lengths from Black Jack Blues (h147). He faced a simple task on the day against a quartet of inferior rivals, but not many of the contenders he'll face in the Champion Hurdle have created as visually a striking impression as he has for both his victories this season.

The runner-up had the run of the race thanks to the less forceful tactics employed on Barizan and he ran close to the form that had seen him win a course-and-distance handicap earlier in the campaign. It's also worth pointing out that a time comparison with the earlier two-mile novice won by Sprinter Sacre works out well, especially considering that the pace in this race wasn't as strong as it might have been, with Black Jack Blues getting to the fourth only a second faster than the leader in the novice.

Medermit (c148) now sits towards the head of the Timeform novice chase ratings following his victory in a good renewal of the two-and-a-half mile Grade 1 novice at Sandown. Alan King's seven-year-old showed his best form yet despite idling on the run-in, needing to be ridden out in the end after jumping/travelling well. He holds entries in the Golden Miller and the Ryanair, but is reportedly on course to tackle the Arkle, with the drop back to two miles unlikely to pose him any problems.

Captain Chris (c145) finished runner-up for the third successive start over fences but, with his jumping generally more assured than previously, he demonstrated here that he's nevertheless going to be a serious contender for whichever race he goes for at the Festival. The longer trip of the Golden Miller is likely to benefit him, though the Arkle is apparently the preferred engagement for him at this stage, too.

Mr Gardner (c138p) was quickly stepped up to this level after a facile chasing debut success at Huntingdon and he acquitted himself well in running close to the pick of his hurdles form. He faded after pecking badly two out, whilst a number of those who finished behind him were undone to a greater extent by their jumping.

Just two favourites (the well-backed Essex in 2005 and Landing Light in 2001) have obliged in the last ten renewals of the totesport Trophy, perhaps not unsurprisingly given the typically high quality field and competitive nature of what is the richest handicap hurdle of the season, but Timeform's Stuart Jones reckons it's not worth looking far beyond the market leaders this year......

Timeform handicapper Gregg Taylor analyses the performances of three winners from Saturday who are all set to be seen next on the opening day of the Festival......

Today's Follow The Money movers come from Sedgefield and Southwell......

Betfair website