Grand National News: Plans on hold for Godsmejudge

Alan King has reported that Grand National hope Godsmejudge suffered a setback when pulled up in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster on Saturday

Alan King has reported that Grand National hope Godsmejudge suffered a setback when pulled up in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster on Saturday...

Plans are now on hold for last year's Scottish Grand National hero while the problem is investigated.

"He's not right. There's a stress problem somewhere, but we don't know what it is just yet," said the Barbury Castle trainer.

"Everything's on hold with him at the moment."

Monbeg Dude remains very much on course for the Grand National, however, after he stayed on well from the rear to take fifth place in the Grimthorpe.

"He's come back all happy and well. We're happy enough with the way he ran, all things considered, and he's all set up nicely for Aintree," said trainer Michael Scudamore.

"He's really fresh and happy. He was bucking and kicking out in the field on Sunday morning."

Sue Smith took the National last season with Auroras Encore, and Mr Moonshine, her representative this year, put up a good effort when second to Maggio in his prep run in the Premier Chase at Kelso on Saturday.

"He's grand and in good form. It's 100 per cent on to Aintree now," said the Bingley trainer's husband and assistant, Harvey.

Monbeg Dude can be backed at 23.022/1 while Mr Moonshine can be backed at double that price, trading at 46.045/1.

News has also emerged that last year's Grand National third and current favourite Teaforthree could run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, where he would be ridden by Champion Jockey A P McCoy. Teaforthree has 22 lb to find on Timeform's ratings with Bobs Worth, though, and can be backed at 55.054/1 for the Festival feature. Another fancied National runner that is set to take in the Gold Cup is the Nicky Henderson-trained Topham Chase winner Triolo D'Alene who hasn't been since an impressive win in the Hennessy Gold Cup.

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Grand National 2013: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

Timeform take you through all 40 horses scheduled to line up in the 2013 Grand National.

Imperial Commander (trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies/jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies) is bidding to become the third Gold Cup winner (after Golden Miller and L'Escargot) to also land the Grand National, and is potentially very well treated on his 2010 Gold Cup form despite top weight here. He's had training setbacks since his comeback second at Cheltenham in January, will be without regular jockey Paddy Brennan (suspended) and has stamina to prove, though.

What A Friend (Paul Nicholls/Sam Thomas) was among the favourites off just a 1 lb lower mark when pulled up in the 2011 Grand National but has been operating below his best since, his attitude looking suspect, and he's likely to be among the outsiders this time around.

Weird Al (Donald McCain/Timmy Murphy) is a high-class chaser on his day, but is fragile and has been far more out than in over past 15 months, while he didn't really take to the course prior to falling four out (when beaten) in this race last year.

Quel Esprit (Willie Mullins/Paul Townend) has clearly been campaigned with this race in mind and shaped well until the lack of a recent run told behind Sir des Champs in the Irish Hennessy on his belated return. Has been given a chance by the handicapper, but three big-race falls earlier in his career does rather temper enthusiasm.

Big Fella Thanks (Tom George/Denis O'Regan) has completed on all four tries over these fences, including when fourth in the 2010 Grand National, and has been revitalised by a change of yards this winter, proving as good as ever when winning at Wincanton in January. However, that was over a much shorter trip and he has always been found wanting for stamina in this race.

Seabass (Ted Walsh/Katie Walsh) was sent off joint-favourite when finishing five lengths third to Neptune Collonges in this race a year ago, jumping impressively and tiring only after the last. He's ultra-consistent (finished a perfectly respectable third to Roi du Mee at Fairyhouse on recent chase return) and should give another good account, but 5 lb higher mark this time round might just stop him winning.

Roberto Goldback (Nicky Henderson/Barry Geraghty) is trained by Nicky Henderson, who has yet to saddle a Grand National winner, and this giant 11-year-old is his sole hope this year. Ran out a wide-margin winner at Ascot on his debut for the yard in the autumn and has slipped back down the weights since, so could perform better than recent form figures suggest he might.

Sunnyhillboy (Jonjo O'Neill/Richie McLernon) was pipped by Neptune Collonges in the closest-ever Grand National finish last year, when he took surprisingly well to the course considering he'd had jumping issues earlier in his career. He has been restricted to just two hurdling starts since (withdrawn from Gold Cup following a bad scope) and 10 lb higher mark could leave him vulnerable.

Ballabriggs (Donald McCain/Jason Maguire) provided the McCain family with their fifth Grand National win in 2011, the first three of which came courtesy of Red Rum. That horse remains the only multiple National winner in the past 77 years, with Ballabriggs managing only sixth when defending his crown in 2012, and he hasn't really shown enough this season to suggest he'll be up to taking advantage of a slipping mark.

Teaforthree (Rebecca Curtis/Nick Scholfield) narrowly failed to justify favouritism in the Welsh National in January and would probably be even shorter in the betting here but for a rare poor run next time, when he was possibly still feeling effects of that Chepstow effort. His prominent style of racing, combined with notably fluent jumping technique, has long marked him down as an ideal candidate for the Grand National.

Across The Bay (Donald McCain/Henry Brooke) has proved better than ever since joining Donald McCain last season, winning decent prizes over both fences and hurdles this winter, but his lazy style of racing, plus sometimes suspect jumping, are far from ideal for Aintree and he's likely to struggle with conditions forecast to be less than testing.

Join Together (Paul Nicholls/Daryl Jacob) has long appealed as an out-and-out stayer, whilst he also took well to these fences when a fast-finishing second in the Becher Chase in December. His last run at Doncaster is easily overlooked (badly hampered early) but he looks plenty high enough in the weights now, while he sometimes doesn't live up to expectations on the big-race stage.

Colbert Station (Ted Walsh/AP McCoy) represents the same stable as 2000 winner Papillon- as well as Seabass- and appeals as one of the most progressive runners in the field, having won the valuable Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Colbert Station remains open to improvement and is the choice of champion jockey AP McCoy (who could also have ridden Sunnyhillboy), though he arguably lacks experience for this test having had only had five starts over fences. 

Forpadydeplasterer (Tom Cooper/Andrew J McNamara) isn't the force of old, despite winning a three-mile minor event at Thurles back in the autumn, and stepping into a huge unknown with regards to the trip (best form at up to 21 furlongs). Others make much more appeal.

On His Own (Willie Mullins/Ruby Walsh) looked a natural over these fences in this race 12 months ago until hesitating and coming down at second Becher's. Jumping could again be his Achilles' heel given his relative lack of experience, but he's racing off the same mark and looked better than ever in his comeback win over hurdles. He's a must for the shortlist with Ruby Walsh taking over in the saddle.

Joncol (Paul Nolan/Robbie Power) was a dual Grade 1-winning chaser in 2009/10, but he's seemingly not the force of old nowadays (has hinted at a physical problem) and is easy to oppose here even though his allotted handicap mark reflects his slide.

Balthazar King (Philip Hobbs/Richard Johnson) is an enthusiastic front runner who has done very well since trying his hand at cross-country chasing, the same route taken by 2007 Grand National winner Silver Birch, but looks to be plenty high enough in the weights now.

Cappa Bleu (Evan Williams/Paul Moloney) represents connections who have made the frame in each of the last four Grand Nationals, and finished a staying-on fourth himself behind Neptune Collonges in 2012. Arguably left with too much to do on that occasion, so he's very much one to consider off a 2 lb lower mark this time around, particularly after an encouraging second at Ascot on his final prep run.

Oscar Time (Martin Lynch/Sam Waley-Cohen) is ridden by amateur jockey Sam Waley-Choen, who has a terrific record over these fences, most famously when pairing up with Oscar Time (off this mark) to finish second to Ballabriggs in the 2011 National. However, the horse is now 12 and hasn't looked the force of old this winter.

Always Waining (Peter Bowen/Tom O'Brien) reserves his best for these fences nowadays, having won the last three renewals of the Topham Chase, held the day before the National. Finally gets his chance to tackle this race, but he has always looked a non-stayer over this sort of trip and connections would have surely been better off going for the shorter race again.

Tatenen (Richard Rowe/Andrew Thornton) won at Ascot from a 1 lb lower mark in January of last year, but doesn't stay beyond three miles and unseated his rider at the first Canal Turn in last year's National, while his form since has been patchy.

Treacle (Tom Taaffe/Andrew Lynch) is a smart stayer and comes here fresh after a light campaign, winning a minor event at Down Royal last month. Didn't really take to these fences in the 2012 race, however, already a fair way back when falling at the tenth.

Lost Glory (Jonjo O'Neill/Mark Walsh) was a prolific winner over both hurdles and fences during early months of both 2011/12 and 2012/13, though he hasn't been seen since winning at Chepstow back in October and likely to find this too tough.

Swing Bill (David Pipe/Conor O'Farrell) has coped pretty well on three of four tries over these fences, though fourth place in this season's Becher Chase is the closest he's come to winning and he will surely find it too much to win this race off a career-high mark at the age of 12.

Saint Are (Tim Vaughan/Dougie Costello) clearly suits Aintree in the spring, as his two wins over jumps have come in big races at this meeting in 2011 and 2012. Sketchy jumping strongly suggests that he won't be completing the hat-trick in the biggest test of all, however.

Chicago Grey (Gordon Elliott/Paul Carberry) had been without a win since the 2011 Cheltenham Festival until springing a surprise at Navan in February, shortly after the Grand National weights were announced. He's duly one of the best-handicapped runners, so clearly warrants respect for all the jumping issues he's had in the past (admittedly not at fault when making an early exit in this race last year).

Quiscover Fontaine (Willie Mullins/David Casey) shaped quite well until falling at the seventeenth when an outsider in the 2012 renewal, but hasn't offered much in three starts this winter, whilst both his trainer and owner appear to have far stronger candidates elsewhere.

Rare Bob (Dessie Hughes/Bryan Cooper) has gone without a win for some time, but he's much better handicapped than that might suggest: he's actually weighted to reverse placings with Seabass from Fairyhouse in February. A strong-travelling sort who usually jumps well (brought down at the fifth in 2012 Grand National), he holds strong each-way claims.

The Rainbow Hunter (Kim Bailey/Aidan Coleman) is trained by Kim Bailey, who saddled Mr Frisk to National glory in 1990, but unfortunately this nine-year-old isn't anything like so fluent a jumper as that one and those jumping frailties must temper enthusiasm here, for all he's looked an improved performer this winter.

Becauseicouldntsee (Noel Glynn/Martin Ferris) is a giant gelding but he didn't last long in either the 2011 (fell second) or 2012 (unseated eighth) renewals of this race. Hinted at a return to form with a tongue strap fitted at Cheltenham last month, but still easy to oppose here.

Harry The Viking (Paul Nicholls/Ryan Mahon) has been disappointing since finishing runner-up to Teaforthree over 4m at last year's Cheltenham Festival, but probably needed run there last time and may well emerge as best of the Paul Nicholls trio, though that still may not be good enough.

Mr Moonshine (Sue Smith/Peter Buchanan) is undoubtedly useful on his day, finishing second in a Grade 3 at Wetherby over Christmas from a 1 lb higher mark than this, but he's folded tamely on both starts since and is difficult to fancy here.

Mumbles Head (Peter Bowen/Jamie Moore) enjoyed something of an Indian summer during early months of 2012/13. Often let down by jumping in big-field handicap chases, however, and fell heavily at the first fence in the Becher Chase in December.

Ninetieth Minute (Tom Taaffe/Niall Madden) won the Coral Cup in a past life, but his form over fences has been patchy and seldom anywhere near as good, so he's very difficult to fancy. 

Auroras Encore (Sue Smith/Ryan Mania) often comes into his own at this time of year, including when finishing a narrow runner-up in the Scottish National last term. Potentially well handicapped on that effort, but form has been very in-and-out since.

Tarquinius (Gordon Elliott/Wilson Renwick) was much improved after joining Gordon Elliott last summer, winning three times and finishing a narrow second in the Thystes Chase since. He's handicapped right up to his best now and will need to find oodles of improvement.

Any Currency (Martin Keighley/Ian Popham) tends to save his best for marathon events, a trend which has continued this season, but has looked exposed from this mark of late and is probably too lazy to make an impact in this. He also failed to complete on his only start over these fences.

Major Malarkey (Nigel Twiston-Davies/Tom Scudamore) has become a feature in decent staying handicaps, his best effort this season coming when a neck second in the London National in December, but he's without a win in well over two years and is unlikely to break that pattern in the Grand National.

Soll (Jo Hughes/Mark Grant) got back to his best when making all at Sandown last month, when he was aided by a very bold display of jumping. He should stay long distances, but he found it all too much in both the Hennessy and Welsh National earlier in the season and this will be no easier.

Viking Blond (Nigel Twiston-Davies/Adam Wedge) tends to go from the front, a tactic which has brought some success, notably when he finished third in a Grade 3 at Cheltenham in November. Bad days far outnumber his good ones, though, and weak finishes on two of his last three starts hardly encourages.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. On His Own
2. Rare Bob
3. Cappa Bleu

Timeform view: On His Own's market position looks justified and he can become the first winner from Ireland since 2007. Gordon Elliott was the last trainer to take the prize back across the Irish Sea and saddles the potentially well-handicapped Chicago Grey. At a bigger price Rare Bob makes plenty of each-way appeal for Dessie Hughes, while Cappa Bleu is unlikely to be far away again with a clear round.

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Grand National Meeting: Flemenstar team up for Cue Card clash

"Referring to the lung infection that ruled him out of Cheltenham, Casey said 'He’s grand now, not a bother on him, and he’s going to Liverpool for the Melling over two and a half'."

Trainer Peter Casey has indicated that the Melling Chase on April 5, and a clash with Ryanair winner Cue Card, is the next intended outing for leading Irish chaser Flemenstar.

Speaking to the Irish Times, Casey laid out the plan with Flemenstar for the remainder of the season, which also includes an even more audacious shot at Champion Chase winner Sprinter Sacre.

Referring to the lung infection that ruled him out of Cheltenham, Casey said "He's grand now, not a bother on him, and he's going to Liverpool for the Melling over two and a half. If all goes well there, he'll probably go to Punchestown for the two-mile race. The two-mile race was what we wanted to run in at Cheltenham."

The match-up between Flemenstar and Cue Card at Aintree would be a fascinating one, and not just because the pair sit on an identical Timeform steeplechase rating of 175. Flemenstar has become one of the most popular chasers in his native land, in no small part on account of his bold jumping in front. Similarly, Cue Card put up one of the performances of the Cheltenham Festival with an exemplary display of front-running in the Ryanair. Both horses best efforts have come when allowed to stride on, and it's doubtful that either will be asked to concede the lead to the other in the Melling Chase.

The race would also mark the first run in Britain for Flemenstar, who has previously been reported to be a poor traveller. The intermediate trip of two-and-a-half miles is possibly ideal for him, and certainly more suitable than three miles, over which he's been defeated on his last two starts, on the second occasion by subsequent Gold Cup runner-up Sir des Champs in the Irish Hennessy.

A potential date with Sprinter Sacre at Punchestown for Flemenstar could be even more significant from Timeform's point of view, as on ratings Flemenstar is one of the likelier candidates to push Sprinter Sacre into exercising the 'p' still attached to his already monstrous 192 rating. Despite Sprinter Sacre still having just eight chase starts to his name, only Arkle and Flyingbolt have ever been rated higher by Timeform.

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Grand National Entries: 57 remain in contention for Aintree glory

"The latest raft of defections means that runs are guaranteed for the likes of Wyck Hill, Chicago Grey... and The Rainbow Hunter."

The weights for the 2013 John Smith's Grand National could be set to go up as several of those towards the head of the weights were withdrawn at the latest forfeit stage.

Of the top five on the racecard, only What A Friend looks a probable runner at this stage, with Albertas Run, Quito de La Roque and Katenko among 16 defections on Tuesday. Imperial Commander, 1 lb ahead of What A Friend, remains among the entries but a combination of lingering injury concerns and an alternative engagement in the Bowl mean he's far from a certain starter.

Among the more fancied runners that were pulled out were Bobbyjo Chase winner Roi du Mee and Badger Ales Trophy winner The Package, the latter of which was pulled up at the Cheltenham Festival last week. 

The others to be withdrawn on Tuesday were Calgary Bay, Midnight Chase, Planet of Sound, Jessies Dream, Problema Tic, Frisco Depot, Alfie Sherrin, Matuhi, Tartak, Summery Justice and Odysseas.

The latest raft of defections means that runs are guaranteed for the likes of Wyck Hill, Chicago Grey (now Timeform top-rated following his win in the Red Mills Chase) and The Rainbow Hunter. Mr Moonshine, runner-up to Cape Tribulation in the Rowland Meyrick over Christmas, is now in the dreaded forty-first position with less than three weeks to go before the race.

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Grand National: 84 entered for Aintree showpiece

The 166th running of the world's greatest chase, the Grand National, has attracted an entry of 84, an increase of two on the 2012 figure...

With a prize fund of £975,000, the Grand National remains the most valuable jump race in Europe and among the richest in the world.
The Aintree contest will take place over the new distance of four miles, three furlongs and about 110 yards on Saturday, April 6, with the start moved closer to the first fence. The maximum permitted field is 40 runners, with up to four reserves on standby. 
Seven-time champion jump trainer Paul Nicholls landed his first Grand National in dramatic fashion last year when Neptune Collonges got the better of Sunnyhillboy by a nose in the closest finish ever seen to the great race. 
Neptune Collonges was retired following his famous victory but Sunnyhillboy could bid to go one better. The 2012 third and fourth, Seabass and Cappa Bleu, are both entered again. 
Trainer Evan Williams, based in the Vale of Glamorgan, has confirmed Cappa Bleu is on course for a second tilt at the Grand National. 
The lightly-raced 11-year-old encountered trouble in running last year and his trainer believes the experience will have stood him in good stead ahead of this year's renewal.
Williams commented: "The Grand National has been the plan for Cappa Bleu ever since he crossed the line last year. 
"He ran a very promising race last year. He got a few bumps along the way and was lucky to stand up with some loose horses and fallers around him. I thought he did incredibly well to finish as close as he did.
"He is a very unexposed horse and his inexperience probably caught him out last year, but hopefully he will benefit from that this time around.
"Everything has been very good with him since his comeback at Carlisle (second of five in November) and, given the way the weather has been, I am delighted we managed to get the run into him when we did.
"Since he ran, it has been very wet and very heavy ground doesn't suit him. When he encountered that for the first time in the Welsh National in 2011, it took me a long time to get him back after that. 
"I didn't want to run him in that sort of ground again this season because I want to get him to Aintree as fresh as I possibly can.
"He holds entries this weekend but he will be entered everywhere as I am very keen to get another run or two into him before Aintree. I will give him every opportunity to run but, as I have said all season, if the ground is very heavy, he won't run."
Cappa Bleu is one of eight entries trained in Wales, along with recent Welsh National second Teaforthree (Rebecca Curtis), Always Waining, who has won the last three runnings of the Topham Chase over the Grand National fences, Gullible Gordon and Mumbles Head (all with Peter Bowen) and 2011 Scottish Grand National winner Beshabar, Saint Are and Tartak (all with Tim Vaughan). 
The only horse trained in Wales to win the Grand National was Kirkland way back in 1905.
Nicholls has four chances to gain a second John Smith's Grand National this year, headed by Tidal Bay. The 12-year-old has been revitalised since joining the Somerset handler and landed the Grade 1 Lexus Chase at Leopardstown, Ireland, over Christmas. Nicholls could also be represented by What A Friend and Harry The Viking, who are both part-owned by Manchester United manager Sir Alex Ferguson, as well as Join Together, who was second over the famous fences in the Becher Chase in December. 
Jonjo O'Neill, who went so close with Sunnyhillboy last year having trained Don't Push It to win in 2010, has five entries in 2013. In addition to Sunnyhillboy, the Gloucestershire-based handler could also be represented by the multiple Grade 1 scorer Albertas Run, Cheltenham Festival winner Alfie Sherrin, Lost Glory and Mister Hyde.
The name McCain is synonymous with the John Smith's Grand National, with the late Ginger McCain sending out the great Red Rum to three Grand National victories in the 1970s followed by Amberleigh House in 2004 and his son Donald enjoying success with Ballabriggs in 2011. Ballabriggs, sixth in 2012, is one of five entries for Donald McCain this year along with Across The Bay, Cloudy Lane, who has run three times in the Grand National and won the Fox Hunters over the big fences last season, Fabalu and Weird Al.
The progressive Wyck Hill, successful on four of his last six starts, comes from the stable of David Bridgwater. As a jockey, Bridgwater finished second in the 1996 Grand National on Encore Un Peu.
There are a total of 32 Irish-trained entries, with Ireland's champion jump trainer Willie Mullins having seven hopefuls, more than any other handler. The Mullins septet includes the leading contenders Prince De Beauchene, a winner over the Mildmay course at the 2011 Grand National meeting and On His Own, who was still travelling well in third when falling at Becher's on the second circuit of last season's Grand National. Mullins saddled Hedgehunter to land the Aintree showpiece in 2005.
Another Irish trainer to have previously sent out the winner of the Grand National is Ted Walsh, who was triumphant with Papillon in 2000. He has two strong contenders this year, including last year's third Seabass, ridden by his amateur rider daughter Katie, and Colbert Station, who entered the reckoning for the Grand National when taking a valuable handicap chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. 

Nigel Twiston-Davies is the most successful current trainer in the Grand National, having enjoyed two successes with Earth Summit (1998) and Bindaree (2002). He has four entries this year, headed by the 2010 Gold Cup hero Imperial Commander, who made an excellent return to action on Saturday, January 26 following nearly two years when just touched off in the Argento Chase at Cheltenham.
David Pipe, who saddled Comply Or Die to win the Grand National in 2008, also has four to choose from including the talented performer The Package, while Venetia Williams, trainer of the shock winner Mon Mome in 2009, has three possible starters - Katenko, the winner of his last two races, Summery Justice and Pentiffic.

Weights for the 2013 Grand National will be revealed on February 12.

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

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In-Play Hints: Closers to benefit in the Sussex National?

"Miko De Beauchene traded at 10% or less of BSP, 25% or less of BSP twice and 50% or less of BSP twice on 5 of its last 5 starts."

Today's In-Play Hints include a race from Wolverhampton and the Sussex National from Plumpton.

Race: 14:45 Wolverhampton- 1m 1f 103yds Handicap

Pace Forecast: Contested

Specific Pace Hint: The presence in the field of other prominent-racers is probably a negative for the prospects of Cadgers Brig: Cabal tends to race further back than some and could be suited by having a good pace to run at.

Individual Price Hint: Silver Alliance traded at 10% or less of BSP twice on its last 5 starts: Glass Mountain traded at 10% or less of BSP and 25% or less of BSP 3 times on 4 of its last 5 starts.

Short Priced Hint: Berlusca traded at a high of 5.00 and BSP of 4.70 when winning last time, a race in which it raced prominently and travelled strongly early on.

Race: 14:55 Plumpton- 3m 5f Sussex National

Pace Forecast: Strongly contested

Specific Pace Hint: A proliferation of possible pace-forcers could count against Double Dizzy, who usually races close up: A proliferation of possible pace-forcers could set things up for those coming from further back: Well Refreshed is one who may benefit.

Individual Price Hint: Hodgson traded at 10% or less of BSP twice and 50% or less of BSP on 3 of its last 5 starts: Miko De Beauchene traded at 10% or less of BSP, 25% or less of BSP twice and 50% or less of BSP twice on 5 of its last 5 starts.

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

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Racing News: Teaforthree to target Welsh National

Teaforthree's front-running style should be perfectly suited to a race of this nature...

Rebecca Curtis has recently stated that her stable star, Teaforthree, will be aimed at next season's Welsh Grand National, over three miles and five furlongs at Chepstow in December...

Teaforthree demonstrated stamina to be his forte in last month's National Hunt Challenge Cup, defeating Harry the Viking by two lengths in the four mile amateur race at the Cheltenham Festival.

That victory provided Curtis with her first winner at the Cheltenham Festival and it now seems she wants to land her first National prize with the same horse.

The Chepstow course can catch a lot of horses out, especially in mid winter, but Teaforthree has won there twice before, producing his best Timeform rating of 145 on each occasion, and he looks a superb National candidate at this stage.

His front-running style should be perfectly suited to a race of this nature and his jumping, good attitude and willingness to respond to pressure are all key attributes likely to hold him in good stead.

There is also a chance that Teaforthree runs in next season's Aintree National, for which he is currently trading at (36.035/1) on Betfair.

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Grand National: Timeform runner-by-runner guide

Grand National Betting / Timeform / 14 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Who will win the Grand National?

"Cappa Bleu's strong-travelling style should stand him in good stead at Aintree and he is very much one for the shortlist..."

Timeform run the rule over the runners for the most famous race in the world, the Grand National at Aintree...

Synchronised (Jonjo O'Neill/Tony McCoy) has history against him as no Gold Cup winner has followed up at Aintree since 1934, but it should be noted that he's one of the better-handicapped runners in the field, whilst he's also clearly not dependent on the mud to show his best nowadays. That said, his idiosyncratic jumping technique isn't ideal for Aintree and could see him getting further back than ideal.

Ballabriggs (Donald McCain/Jason Maguire) is another runner hoping to overcome bleak historical trends, as there have been only two back-to-back Grand National winners in the last 142 years. In truth, a 10 lb higher mark than when winning the 2011 renewal looks the biggest obstacle to overcome but, given how well he took to the course then, it wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see him make another bold bid.

Weird Al (Donald McCain/Timmy Murphy) was better than ever upon joining this yard in the autumn, winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby and finishing a fine third behind Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase. His training problems clearly aren't a thing of the past, however, and it's difficult to fancy him following a miserable effort in the Gold Cup last time (reportedly broke a blood vessel).

Neptune Collonges (Paul Nicholls/Daryl Jacob) is still capable of high-class form despite his advancing years, good placed efforts under big weights at Sandown and Haydock (runner-up to Giles Cross) last two starts. Not handicapped out of things and has a racing style that could be well suited to this course.

Calgary Bay (Henrietta Knight/Dominic Elsworth) got no further than the fourth in 2011 National, but is usually a very safe conveyance. Doubtful stayer over 4½m, though, whilst he's also plenty high enough in the weights following back-to-back wins at Cheltenham and Doncaster.

Alfa Beat (John Joseph Hanlon/Davy Russell) won second successive Kerry National back in the autumn, but seems too high in the weights now as a result, whilst he didn't take to these fences when a faller in last year's Topham.

Planet of Sound (Philip Hobbs/Richard Johnson) handles top of the ground well and has returned with typically honest placed efforts in the Hennessy at Newbury and Racing Plus Chase at Kempton this term. Hasn't got anything in hand of the handicapper, though, and stamina also to prove over this marathon trip.

Black Apalachi (Dessie Hughes/Denis O'Regan) was a runaway winner of 2008 Becher Chase, who also cut a very bold sight over these fences when runner-up to Don't Push It off this mark in 2010 National. Now thirteen, but signs of retaining much of that ability when a keeping-on second to Prince de Beauchene at Fairyhouse on recent comeback and shouldn't be written off, particularly as Denis O'Regan has opted to renew his association with him instead of riding Giles Cross.

Deep Purple (Evan Williams/Jamie Moore) coped surprisingly well with longer trip when winning London National at Sandown in December, but has shaped as if amiss on most other starts in recent seasons.

Junior (David Pipe/Tom Scudamore) has been trained with this race inmind ever since running away with last season's Kim Muir at Cheltenham.Warmed up with a narrow second to Ikorodu Road (winner since) at Doncaster last time and clearly warrants respect, though it's possible he neither travels nor jumps quite fluently enough for this unique test.

Chicago Grey (Gordon Elliott/Paul Carberry) is a thorough stayer who won 2011 National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham and has been campaigned with this race in mind since, with the booking of Paul Carberry clearly an asset over these fences. Exaggerated waiting tactics adopted on him earlier in the season not certain to suit here, though.

Tatanen (Richard Rowe/Andrew Thornton) won valuable 21f handicap for second successive year at Ascot in January, but he is high in the weights as a result and has stamina to prove for this kind of test.

Seabass (Ted Walsh/Katie Walsh) represents the same stable as 2000 National winner Papillon, and heads to Aintree on an upward curve too, having won each of his last six starts, the latest one coming in a Grade 2 event over 2m. This marathon trip a completely unknown quantity with him, though.

Shakalakaboomboom (Nicky Henderson/Barry Geraghty) took well to these fences when seventh in the 2011 Topham as a novice and has progressed nicely since then, winning twice prior to finishing a fine second to Calgary Bay at Doncaster in January. Now 5 lb higher in theweights and suitability for this extreme test not guaranteed.

West End Rocker (Alan King/Wayne Hutchinson) took a luckless exit in 2011 National, but coped fine with these fences when runaway winner of Becher Chase under very testing conditions in December. Seems sure to stay, though 12 lb higher mark a major concern.

According To Pete (Malcolm Jefferson/Harry Haynes) has been in fine form of late, won valuable handicaps at Wetherby and Haydock prior to finishing a good second in Kelso minor event last time (Ballabriggs back in fourth). Needs more improvement now, however.

On His Own (Willie Mullins/Ruby Walsh) confirmed himself a much-improved performer for new stable (formerly with Howard Johnson) when running out a wide-margin winner of Thyestes Chase at Gowran in late-January. Much higher in weights now, however, whilst his jumping hasn't always looked the most assured.

Always Right (John Wade/James Reveley) is a sure-footed jumper who's capable of smart form on his day, including when winning at Kelso on his reappearance. Has undergone a breathing operation since flopping on both starts since, so could well get involved if that's done the trick.

Cappa Bleu (Evan Williams/Paul Moloney) is the 2009 Cheltenham Foxhunter winner who's done well since returning from a lengthy absence this winter, winning at Haydock prior to decent placed efforts at Chepstow (behind Le Beau Bai and Giles Cross) and Ascot (arguably should have won). His strong-travelling style should stand him in good stead at Aintree and very much one for the shortlist.

Rare Bob (Dessie Hughes/Bryan Cooper) doesn't seem quite the force of old this term, despite more encouraging efforts of late, whilst his remote fifth in the Becher Chase back in December suggests he'll have stamina limitations over this trip for all he took pretty well to the fences.

Organisedconfusion (Arthur Moore/Nina Carberry) proved a revelation when upped markedly in trip to win the 2011 Irish National (with Sunnyhillboy back in third). Has kept his powder dry back over shorter (including over hurdles) since then, and remains very much unexposed over marathon trips.

Treacle (Tom Taaffe/Andrew Lynch) is lightly raced, though better than ever this winter and looked well worth trying over this sort of trip when runner-up to Cross Appeal in valuable handicap at Leopardstown over Christmas. Even better form when staying-on third in Irish Hennessy there last time and potentially well treated on that effort.

The Midnight Club (Willie Mullins/Paul Townend) didn't take to the course so well as expected when favourite for the 2011 renewal (eventually finished sixth after being hampered four out) and simply hasn't looked at the top of his game this time around, so others preferred.

Mon Mome (Venetia Williams/Aidan Coleman) was the 100/1 winner of the 2009 renewal, but faller at the fifth last twelve months later and it increasingly looks as if he needs everything to fall his way nowadays, so a well-run National could see him getting further back than ideal.

Arbor Supreme (Jonjo O'Neill/Mark Walsh) was a smart chaser in his prime for Willie Mullins, but has promised little in two runs over hurdles for current yard. He has failed to complete in the last two renewals of this race, so others are readily preferred even with the tongue tie in addition.

Sunnyhillboy (Jonjo O'Neill/Richie McLernon) showed plenty of stamina when third (after a troubled passage) in last year's Irish National and did so again to win the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last month, rallying splendidly to beat Becauseicouldntsee. His jumping isn't the issue it once was and he cannot be ignored from a handicapping viewpoint.

Killyglen (Stuart Crawford/Robbie Power) was still close up when falling four out in last year's National but doesn't always see his races out thoroughly and that tempers enthusiasm here, despite a recent win at Down Royal.

Quiscover Fontaine (Willie Mullins/David Casey) does most of his racing over much shorter trips, though showed decent stamina reserves when fourth in last year's Irish National. Looks plenty high enough in the weights at present and his stable looks to have better options elsewhere.

Tharawaat (Gordon Elliott/Brian O'Connell) was back to his best when winning at Galway in October (2¾m) but has not shown a lot since then, and has stamina to prove here (never raced over further than 3m).

Becauseicouldntsee (Noel Glynn/Davy Condon) is a giant gelding who ticks plenty of boxes for a race such as this, given he's an out-and-out stayer with good recent form to his name (runner-up to Sunnyhillboy at Cheltenham last time). He does, however, have a few falls on his CV, including when crashing out at the second in the 2011 National.

State of Play (Evan Williams/Noel Fehily) is a likeable veteran who's made the frame in each of the last three Grand Nationals, his keeping-on fourth behind Ballabriggs last year coming after a twelve-month absence (which he's had again this time). Now twelve, and feeling is his chance has passed.

Swing Bill (David Pipe/Conor O'Farrell) was an honourable fifth in last year's Topham but didn't seem to enjoy the experience so much when tackling these fences for a second time back in December and relatively easy to oppose here.

Postmaster (Tim Vaughan/Dougie Costello) is a hold-up sort who can find little, but ended a long losing run at Bangor in August (25f) and also landed a 2½m hunter chase at Ludlow recently. He was a first fence faller in the Topham last year, has stamina to prove, and he doesn't look all that well treated at the weights.

Giles Cross (Victor Dartnall/Paddy Brennan) has proved admirably consistent in valuable long-distance handicap chases over the past fifteen months, finishing runner-up twice in the Welsh National as well as winning the Southern National at Fontwell and the Grand National Trial at Haydock this term. His front-running style often suits this race and definitely one to consider should the ground ride soft or heavy.

Midnight Haze (Kim Bailey/Sean Quinlan) is a sure-footed front runner who can boast a decent wins-to-runs ratio in recent seasons, but rather had his limitations exposed in the CheltenhamFestival cross-country chase last time and could also have stamina issues over this trip.

Vic Venturi (Dessie Hughes/Harry Skelton) has endured wretched luck in last two renewals of the Grand National (brought down early last time), but didn't look a natural over these fences even when winning the 2009 Becher and has something to prove after flopping in a hunter chase last time.

In Compliance (Dessie Hughes/Niall Madden) is a veteran who has some classy older form to his name, but finished well behind Killyglen at Down Royal last time and was soundly beaten in this race last year, so makes little appeal.

Viking Blond (Nigel Twiston-Davies/Brian Hughes) received a good ride when making all on chase debut at Chepstow (3m) in October. He showed similar form in his next two starts over that trip, but not in the same form the last twice and lack of experience is a concern.

Hello Bud (Nigel Twiston-Davies/Sam Twiston-Davies) was a game fifth in 2010 Grand National and won Becher back here later that year.Was running another big race prior to unseating at the Canal Turn in latest renewal of the Becher in December, but he's shaped as if old age is catching up with him on most other starts since then.

Neptune Equester (Brian Ellison/Felix de Giles) was suited by the stamina test faced when winning over 3½m at Haydock in November. Not in same form since, however, and relatively easy to oppose from 5 lb out of the weights.

Any Currency (Martin Keighley/RESERVE) is a thorough stayer who hasn't seen much action since his last success in November 2009. Has not been at his best this season and makes little appeal from 6 lb out of the handicap.

Our Island (Tim Vaughan/RESERVE) is a point/hurdles winner who stuck to his task when second in a handicap at Haydock in December. Set stiff tasks when below form in cheekpieces on his last 3 starts, though, and 7 lb out of the weights here.

Abbeybraney (George Bewley/RESERVE) has only been seen 5 times since winning a novice for Howard Johnson in December 2009, recording his best effort of season when third in Kelso conditions event latest, but is 9 lb out of the weights here.

Smoking Aces (Tom Taaffe/RESERVE) is a thorough stayer who responded well to blinkers when winning at Fairyhouse (29f) in December. Not in quite the same form since, and is 9 lb out of the handicap with cheekpieces replacing the blinkers.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Cappa Bleu
2. Black Apalachi
3. Neptune Collonges

Timeform View: Trainer Evan Williams and owner William Rucker have been placed in the last three Nationals with State of Play, and their perseverance could be rewarded this year, not by that one but by Cappa Bleu, who has plenty about him to think he'll take to this course and is among the best handicapped in the field, too. Black Apalachi will be ignored by the trends followers given that he's now thirteen, but few are as effective around here as he looks overpriced. Other honourable mentions go to Sunnyhillboy, Neptune Collonges and Organisedconfusion.
..........
Get the Timeform Jury's verdict on today's Saturday's TV races with Timeform TV Focus. Click HERE to find out more about this successful tipping service.

A look back over the in-play stories of previous Grand Nationals tells us to focus our attentions on laying the short ones, writes Jack Houghton....

Paul Jacobs presents and is joined by Timeform's Phil Turner to preview three races to be run at Aintree on Saturday.......

How do you solve a problem like the Grand National? By sharing it, says Timeform Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch, who answers some of the many problems posed by the participants in this year's big race......

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Timeform Daily: Grand National, Saturday, Aintree 16:15

Race of the Day / Timeform / 14 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Who will win the Grand National?

"Cappa Bleu's strong-travelling style should stand him in good stead at Aintree and he is very much one for the shortlist..."

Timeform run the rule over the runners for the most famous race in the world, the Grand National at Aintree...

Synchronised (Jonjo O'Neill/Tony McCoy) has history against him as no Gold Cup winner has followed up at Aintree since 1934, but it should be noted that he's one of the better-handicapped runners in the field, whilst he's also clearly not dependent on the mud to show his best nowadays. That said, his idiosyncratic jumping technique isn't ideal for Aintree and could see him getting further back than ideal.

Ballabriggs (Donald McCain/Jason Maguire) is another runner hoping to overcome bleak historical trends, as there have been only two back-to-back Grand National winners in the last 142 years. In truth, a 10 lb higher mark than when winning the 2011 renewal looks the biggest obstacle to overcome but, given how well he took to the course then, it wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see him make another bold bid.

Weird Al (Donald McCain/Timmy Murphy) was better than ever upon joining this yard in the autumn, winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby and finishing a fine third behind Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase. His training problems clearly aren't a thing of the past, however, and it's difficult to fancy himfollowing a miserable effort in the Gold Cup last time (reportedly broke a blood vessel).

Neptune Collonges (Paul Nicholls/Daryl Jacob) is still capable of high-class formdespite his advancing years, good placed efforts under big weights at Sandown and Haydock (runner-up to Giles Cross) last two starts. Not handicapped out of things and has a racing style that could be well suited to this course.

Calgary Bay (Henrietta Knight/Dominic Elsworth) got no further than the fourth in 2011 National, but is usually a very safe conveyance. Doubtful stayer over 4½m, though, whilst he's also plenty high enough in the weights following back-to-back wins at Cheltenham and Doncaster.

Alfa Beat (John Joseph Hanlon/Davy Russell) won second successive Kerry National back in the autumn, but seems too high in the weights now as a result, whilst he didn't take to these fences when a faller in last year's Topham.

Planet of Sound (Philip Hobbs/Richard Johnson) handles top of the ground well and has returned with typically honest placed efforts in the Hennessy at Newbury and Racing Plus Chase at Kempton this term. Hasn't got anything in hand of the handicapper, though, and stamina also to prove over this marathon trip.

Black Apalachi (Dessie Hughes/Denis O'Regan) was a runaway winner of 2008 Becher Chase, who also cut a very bold sight over these fences when runner-up to Don't Push It off this mark in 2010 National. Now thirteen, but signs of retaining much of that ability when a keeping-on second to Prince de Beauchene at Fairyhouse on recent comeback and shouldn't be written off, particularly as Denis O'Regan has opted to renew his association with him instead of riding Giles Cross.

Deep Purple (Evan Williams/Jamie Moore) coped surprisingly well with longer trip when winning London National at Sandown in December, but has shaped as if amiss on most other starts in recent seasons.

Junior (David Pipe/Tom Scudamore) has been trained with this race inmind ever since running away with last season's KimMuir at Cheltenham.Warmed up with a narrow second to Ikorodu Road (winner since) at Doncaster last time and clearly warrants respect, though it's possible he neither travels nor jumps quite fluently enough for this unique test.

Chicago Grey (Gordon Elliott/Paul Carberry) is a thorough stayer who won 2011 National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham and has been campaigned with this race in mind since, with the booking of Paul Carberry clearly an asset over these fences. Exaggeratedwaiting tactics adopted on himearlier in the season not certain to suit here, though.

Tatanen (Richard Rowe/Andrew Thornton) won valuable 21f handicap for second successive year at Ascot in January, but he is high in the weights as a result and has stamina to prove for this kind of test.

Seabass (Ted Walsh/Katie Walsh) represents the same stable as 2000 National winner Papillon, and heads to Aintree on an upward curve too, having won each of his last six starts, the latest one coming in a Grade 2 event over 2m. This marathon trip a completely unknown quantity with him, though.

Shakalakaboomboom (Nicky Henderson/Barry Geraghty) took well to these fences when seventh in the 2011 Topham as a novice and has progressed nicely since then, winning twice prior to finishing a fine second to Calgary Bay at Doncaster in January. Now 5 lb higher in theweights and suitability for this extreme test not guaranteed.

West End Rocker (Alan King/Wayne Hutchinson) took a luckless exit in 2011 National, but coped fine with these fences when runawaywinner of Becher Chase under very testing conditions in December. Seems sure to stay, though 12 lb higher mark a major concern.

According To Pete (Malcolm Jefferson/Harry Haynes) has been in fine form of late, won valuable handicaps atWetherby and Haydock prior to finishing a good second in Kelso minor event last time (Ballabriggs back in fourth). Needs more improvement now, however.

On His Own (Willie Mullins/Ruby Walsh) confirmed himself a much-improved performer for new stable (formerly with Howard Johnson) when running out a wide-margin winner of Thyestes Chase at Gowran in late-January. Much higher in weights now, however, whilst his jumping hasn't always looked the most assured.

Always Right (John Wade/James Reveley) is a sure-footed jumper who's capable of smart form on his day, including when winning at Kelso on his reappearance. Has undergone a breathing operation since flopping on both starts since, so could well get involved if that's done the trick.

Cappa Bleu (Evan Williams/Paul Moloney) is the 2009 Cheltenham Foxhunter winner who's done well since returning from a lengthy absence this winter, winning at Haydock prior to decent placed efforts at Chepstow (behind Le Beau Bai and Giles Cross) and Ascot (arguably should have won). His strong-travelling style should stand him in good stead at Aintree and very much one for the shortlist.

Rare Bob (Dessie Hughes/Bryan Cooper) doesn't seem quite the force of old this term, despite more encouraging efforts of late, whilst his remote fifth in the Becher Chase back in December suggests he'll have stamina limitations over this trip for all he took pretty well to the fences.

Organisedconfusion (Arthur Moore/Nina Carberry) proved a revelation when upped markedly in trip to win the 2011 Irish National (with Sunnyhillboy back in third). Has kept his powder dry back over shorter (including over hurdles) since then, and remains very much unexposed over marathon trips.

Treacle (Tom Taaffe/Andrew Lynch) is lightly raced, though better than ever this winter and looked well worth trying over this sort of trip when runner-up to Cross Appeal in valuable handicap at Leopardstown over Christmas. Even better formwhen staying-on third in Irish Hennessy there last time and potentially well treated on that effort.

The Midnight Club (Willie Mullins/Paul Townend) didn't take to the course so well as expected when favourite for the 2011 renewal (eventually finished sixth after being hampered four out) and simply hasn't looked at the top of his game this time around, so others preferred.

Mon Mome (Venetia Williams/Aidan Coleman) was the 100/1 winner of the 2009 renewal, but faller at the fifth last twelve months later and it increasingly looks as if he needs everything to fall his way nowadays, so a well-run National could see him getting further back than ideal.

Arbor Supreme (Jonjo O'Neill/Mark Walsh) was a smart chaser in his prime for Willie Mullins, but has promised little in two runs over hurdles for current yard. He has failed to complete in the last two renewals of this race, so others are readily preferred.

Sunnyhillboy (Jonjo O'Neill/Richie McLernon) showed plenty of stamina when third (after a troubled passage) in last year's Irish National and did so again to win the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last month, rallying splendidly to beat Becauseicouldntsee. His jumping isn't the issue it once was and he cannot be ignored from a handicapping viewpoint.

Killyglen (Stuart Crawford/Robbie Power) was still close up when falling four out in last year's National but doesn't always see his races out thoroughly and that tempers enthusiasm here, despite a recent win at Down Royal.

Quiscover Fontaine (Willie Mullins/David Casey) does most of his racing over much shorter trips, though showed decent stamina reserves when fourth in last year's Irish National. Looks plenty high enough in the weights at present and his stable looks to have better options elsewhere.

Tharawaat (Gordon Elliott/Brian O'Connell) was back to his best when winning at Galway in October (2¾m) but has not shown a lot since then, and has stamina to prove here (never raced over further than 3m).

Becauseicouldntsee (Noel Glynn/Davy Condon) is a giant gelding who ticks plenty of boxes for a race such as this, given he's an out-and-out stayer with good recent form to his name (runner-up to Sunnyhillboy at Cheltenham last time). He does, however, have a few falls on his CV, including when crashing out at the second in the 2011 National.

State of Play (Evan Williams/Noel Fehily) is a likeable veteran who's made the frame in each of the last three Grand Nationals, his keeping-on fourth behind Ballabriggs last year coming after a twelve-month absence (which he's had again this time). Now twelve, and feeling is his chance has passed.

Swing Bill (David Pipe/Conor O'Farrell) was an honourable fifth in last year's Topham but didn't seem to enjoy the experience so much when tackling these fences for a second time back in December and relatively easy to oppose here.

Postmaster (Tim Vaughan/Dougie Costello) is a hold-up sort who can find little, but ended a long losing run at Bangor in August (25f) and also landed a 2½m hunter chase at Ludlow recently. He was a first fence faller in the Topham last year, has stamina to prove, and he doesn't look all that well treated at the weights.

Giles Cross (Victor Dartnall/Paddy Brennan) has proved admirably consistent in valuable long-distance handicap chases over the past fifteen months, finishing runner-up twice in the Welsh National as well as winning the Southern National at Fontwell and the Grand National Trial at Haydock this term. His front-running style often suits this race and definitely one to consider should the ground ride soft or heavy.

Midnight Haze (Kim Bailey/Sean Quinlan) is a sure-footed front runner who can boast a decent wins-to-runs ratio in recent seasons, but rather had his limitations exposed in the CheltenhamFestival cross-country chase last time and could also have stamina issues over this trip.

Vic Venturi (Dessie Hughes/Harry Skelton) has endured wretched luck in last two renewals of the Grand National (brought down early last time), but didn't look a natural over these fences even when winning the 2009 Becher and has something to prove after flopping in a hunter chase last time.

In Compliance (Dessie Hughes/Niall Madden) is a veteran who has some classy older form to his name, but finished well behind Killyglen at Down Royal last time and was soundly beaten in this race last year, so makes little appeal.

Viking Blond (Nigel Twiston-Davies/Brian Hughes) received a good ride when making all on chase debut at Chepstow (3m) in October. He showed similar form in his next two starts over that trip, but not in the same form the last twice and lack of experience is a concern.

Hello Bud (Nigel Twiston-Davies/Sam Twiston-Davies) was a game fifth in 2010 Grand National and won Becher back here later that year.Was running another big race prior to unseating at the Canal Turn in latest renewal of the Becher in December, but he's shaped as if old age is catching up with him on most other starts since then.

Neptune Equester (Brian Ellison/Felix de Giles) was suited by the stamina test faced when winning over 3½m at Haydock in November. Not in same form since, however, and others look much likelier racing from 5 lb out of the weights.

Any Currency (Martin Keighley/RESERVE) is a thorough stayer who hasn't seen much action since his last success in November 2009. Has not been at his best this season and makes little appeal from 6 lb out of the handicap.

Our Island (Tim Vaughan/RESERVE) is a point/hurdles winner who stuck to his task when second in a handicap at Haydock in December. Set stiff tasks when below form in cheekpieces on his last 3 starts, though, and 7 lb out of the weights here.

Abbeybraney (George Bewley/RESERVE) has only been seen 5 times since winning a novice for Howard Johnson in December 2009, recording his best effort of season when third in Kelso conditions event latest, but is 9 lb out of the weights here.

Smoking Aces (Tom Taaffe/RESERVE) is a thorough stayer who responded well to blinkers when winning at Fairyhouse (29f) in December. Not in quite the same form since, and is 9 lb out of the handicap with cheekpieces replacing the blinkers.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Cappa Bleu
2. Black Apalachi
3. Neptune Collonges

Timeform View: Trainer Evan Williams and owner William Rucker have been placed in the last three Nationals with State of Play, and their perseverance could be rewarded this year, not by that one but by Cappa Bleu, who has plenty about him to think he'll take to this course and is among the best handicapped in the field, too. Black Apalachi will be ignored by the trends followers given that he's now thirteen, but few are as effective around here as he looks overpriced. Other honourable mentions go to Sunnyhillboy, Neptune Collonges and Organisedconfusion.
...........
Get the Timeform Jury's verdict on today's Aintree BBC races with Timeform TV Focus. Click HERE to find out more about this successful tipping service.

Timeform run the rule over the 2m4f Grade 1 Melling Chase at Aintree on Friday afternoon......

Timeform take a look at a high-quality field for the Grade 1 Aintree Bowl on Thursday......

Timeform run the rule over the runners for the listed Further Flight Stakes, run over a mile and three quarters at Nottingham......

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Irish National Result: Lion roars home in Fairyhouse feature

News / Timeform / 09 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Lion Na Bearnai caused an upset in the Irish National at Fairyhouse

Thomas Gibney's Lion Na Bearnai showed thorough stamina reserves to deny the Edward o'Grady-trained Out Now in the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse...

Gibney has just a handful of horses at his County Meath base but he proved he can produce on the big stage with Lion Na Bearnai, the 10-year-old defying a huge Betfair Starting Price of [71.24] (and in-running odds of [150.0]) in the three-mile-five-furlong handicap chase.

Providing 3-lb conditional Andrew Thornton with his most high-profile success to date, Lion Na Bearnai got the better of the Paddy Mangan-ridden Out Now in the closing stages, finishing four and a half lengths to the good in a 29-runner field.

Jonjo O'Neill's Cheltenham Festival winner Alfie Sherrin fared best of the two British contenders in third, with Kieran Purcell's Paddy Pub back in fourth. [9.8] favourite Four Commanders was disappointing and finished fourth of the four Gigginston House Stud representatives.

With Saturday's Aintree Grand National in mind, it's worth pointing out that Ted Walsh's Seabass (currently trading at [29.0]) beat Out Now by seven and a half lengths when they met in a Leopardstown handicap in January.

Trainer Shark Hanlon has issued an upbeat bulletin regards his Grand National runner Alfa Beat, suggesting that punters who overlook the horse do so at their peril......

Get Me Out Of Here finally landed the decent prize his consistent efforts have deserved when winning the Grade Two Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle at Fairyhouse......

Akeed Mofeed, well backed in recent days for the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, will miss the race through injury....

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Grand National Runners: Why Synchronised will shorten this week - but shouldn't

Ante-Post Betting / Tony Calvin / 09 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Synchronised on his way to Gold Cup glory

"His tendency to make mistakes and look beaten in his races before powering through late on means that he is highly likely to trade bigger in-running on Betfair soon after the off. And, increasingly, a horse’s style of running affects its pre-race price - and punters’ betting habits."

Gold Cup winner Synchronised will have that man Tony McCoy on board in the Grand National, is trained by Jonjo O'Neill and owned by JP McManus. A deadly trio indeed. And whereas his price might shorten with the bookies before the off, it probably won't on Betfair.

There is little doubt that any horse ridden by Tony McCoy, trained by Jonjo O'Neill and owned by JP McManus is sure to go off at an artificially short price in the Grand National.

You only have to look at their runners in recent seasons for examples.

Don't Push It went off as 10-1 joint-favourite when winning in 2010 and at 9-1 last year, while Butler's Cabin was 7-1 market leader in 2009 and 10-1 the year before. Clan Royal went off as 5-1 joint favourite with Hedgehunter in 2006, having started as 10-1 co-favourite in 2004 and 9-1 in 2005.

This is no coincidence.

Simply put, the off-course bookmakers are not going to let any horse with such famously recognisable colours and connections go off at a remotely generous price.

Remember, Don't Push It returned a Betfair SP of 19.18 when winning in 2010, as opposed to the industry SP of 10-1. The Betfair market suggests that Don't Push It wasn't shortened from 20-1 to 10-1 in the minutes leading up to the off purely because of weight of money. Indeed, the 2010 National book came in at 155 per cent.

What is ironic is that the horse representing the trio this year arguably deserves to be a shorter price than all of the above runners.

After all, Synchronised won the Gold Cup last month, is well-handicapped on that, and is a Welsh National and Midlands Grand National winner, so has already proved he stays extreme distances and is now proven on any ground.

So why shouldn't Synchronised, currently around 9-1 on Betfair, go off shorter than 5-1 Clan Royal in 2006?

Betfair spokesman Tony Calvin explained: "If any horse of JP, Jonjo and AP's in recent years deserves to go off such a short price favourite, it is surely Synchronised.

"But there is good reason to think that the Gold Cup hero won't, or shouldn't, shorten a great deal from his current price of 9-1 - on Betfair at least. Namely, his style of running.

"His tendency to make mistakes and look beaten in his races before powering through late on means that he is highly likely to trade bigger in-running on Betfair soon after the off. And, increasingly, a horse's style of running affects its pre-race price - and punters' betting habits.

"So even those who fancy the horse may sit and wait before looking to pounce in running.

"After all, why back it in single-figures pre-race when history suggests he will soon be backable at a double-figure price after the opening few fences?

"Synchronised has such a history. He traded at 22-1 and 24-1 in running before winning the Lexus and Gold Cup this season and at 17-2 and 23-1 in winning his Nationals at Chepstow and Uttoxeter.

"His SPs for those races were 8-1, 8-1, 5-1 and 15-2 respectively.

"Of course, once a system becomes known it often becomes redundant and there's a chance Synchronised will get into a smooth rhythm early on and his odds will tumble accordingly.

"But, even so, it may not be best to get drawn into the bookmakers' hype once the debate begins over what price Synchronised will start on Saturday.

"History tells us that he is likely to be too short - bookmakers have already shortened him into as low as 6-1 in places when he is around 9-1 on Betfair - but the more sophisticated exchange market may paint a truer picture of the betting reality."

Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Synchronised is becoming increasingly likely to take his chance in the John Smith's Grand National at Aintree on Saturday week......

Another steady week for the McCain team as attentions turn to Aintree......and, whisper it, the Flat season....

Based on the theory that participation is better than preaching, Timeform Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch invites you to take his Grand National Quiz on his way to trying to answer the key question......

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Grand National: Why you should trust Cheltenham form at Aintree

Features / Simon Rowlands / 09 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

The stats bode well for Synchronised

"And Cheltenham winners fared best of all, having a median performance rating of just 8 below their pre-race master ratings."

Timeform's Head of Research and Development Simon Rowlands explains why Cheltenham form should be trusted this week and offers a couple of value bets on the Aintree "Specials" markets...

I am not a great believer in tradition on the whole. But it has its uses, and the predictable traditions of racing are something that can at least be turned to the punter's advantage.

The Grand National is not what it once was - there are no brick walls these days for a start - and I for one am pleased of that fact. But changes have tended to come gradually, and changes to Aintree's overall Grand National meeting have come more gradually still.

As a result, it is possible to come to such an occasion cold but with a good general idea of what to expect, as tradition ensures that history should hold some valuable lessons for us.

One of those lessons is the ability - or otherwise - of horses who ran well at the Cheltenham Festival to follow up just a few weeks later. Plenty have failed, and received wisdom might have you imagine that Aintree is a graveyard for horses coming on from the Cheltenham Festival. It is not.

The ever-readable James Pyman in Racing Post made this very point recently, concluding "since 2005, simply backing runners at Aintree who had posted a top-three finish at the Cheltenham festival on their previous outings would have led to 43 winners from 224 bets and a £1 level-stake profit of £37.89".

This tallies with my own findings, though stats can be distorted by the means of measurement employed, so I decided to have a closer look at the records from just the last three years.

"Actual against expected performance", as judged by a comparison between a horse's Timeform master rating pre-race and its Timeform performance rating in the race itself, provides further compelling evidence.

Horses that had last run at the Cheltenham Festival performed marginally better at Aintree than those that had come by a different route (median of 19 below and 22 below expectation respectively).

Those that had finished in the first three last time at Cheltenham fared better still (median of 14 below expectation). And Cheltenham winners fared best of all, having a median performance rating of just 8 below their pre-race master ratings. That is much better than for the wider horse population.

This has not been reflected fully in those horses' odds, either. A variable stake at Betfair SP (that is, more is theoretically staked on shorter-priced horses than on outsiders, thus limiting the effect of "fluke" events) saw Cheltenham winners handsomely in profit. Cheltenham runners-up sneaked into the black also.

Cheltenham and Aintree present rather different tests for horses, and this factor should not be ignored. But, otherwise, there is little evidence to support the contention that a good run at the former can be expected to compromise the chance of a good run at the latter.

And that could well be even more the case this year than usual, with an extra week's break between the two occasions.

..........
Tradition and history also make it easier to tackle special bets at the marquee events, as anyone who has done so at Cheltenham should appreciate.

There are just two such markets up on Betfair at the time of writing - Longest Winning SP and Winning Distance (Odds) - but they both make plenty of appeal to my mind.

The below table shows the history of these markets this century, with winning margins adjusted to allow for differences in means of returning those margins and a small increase in the number of races (there will be 21 again at this year's Aintree Grand National meeting).

With the going currently forecast to be "Good, Good to soft in places on the Grand National course", the years since 2002 seem to be our best guide to win margins.

Crunching the numbers led me to estimate a cumulative figure over the three days of around 112 lengths, which is comfortably inside the highest category available (over 105 lengths).

Frequencies of win odds this century were: 229 at under 33/1; 14 at 33/1 to 50/1; and 3 (all of which came in 2009) at over 50/1. This implies a probability of around 55% that the highest winning SP will fall into the middle - 33/1 to 50/1 - range which has provided the "winner" in 10 of those 12 years.

Special bets proved to be a nice money-spinner for followers of this blog at Cheltenham. Here's hoping that, like some of the equine protagonists, we can also back up our efforts from there!

Recommendations

Back "33/1 to 50/1 inclusive longest winning SP" 3 pts at [2.0] or longer
Back "more than 105 lengths cumulative winning margins" 2 pts at [2.0] or longer

The victory of the Donald McCain-trained Ballabriggs in last year's Grand National allowed Trevor Hemmings the opportunity to fully take in winning the world's greatest chase......

The Grand National is renowned for vast amounts of money being wagered across the country, with huge gambles being part of the folklore and romance surrounding the world's most famous chase......

Prior to last year, Jason Maguire had almost seemed destined to join jockeys such as Jamie Goldstein, Tom Jenks and Andy Adams who all missed out on their one real chance of glory in the Grand National....

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Grand National News: Alfa to swim not sink says up-Beat Shark

News / Timeform / 09 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Alfa Beat fell in last year's Topham Chase over the National fences

"Hanlon still believes Alfa Beat can produce a bold showing, pointing to the fact that the yard has been out of form for a large part of the season as a reason for his low-key efforts."

Trainer Shark Hanlon has issued an upbeat bulletin regards his Grand National runner Alfa Beat, suggesting that punters who overlook the horse do so at their peril...

Alfa Beat, who is rated 150 over fences by Timeform, has twice landed September's Kerry National at Listowel, has only been seen twice since winning the most recent renewal, unseating at Leopardstown in January and pulling up at Fairyhouse in Februay.,

However, despite not going into Saturday's race with a positive performance behind him, Hanlon still believes Alfa Beat can produce a bold showing, pointing to the fact that the yard has been out of form for a large part of the season as a reason for his low-key efforts.

With the stable having sent out a point winner in the last few days, the trainer is now more bullish and has even booked top rider Davy Russell (four completions from 10 rides), whose closest National placing came aboard seventh Joes Edge in 2006, for the eight-year-old grey. Russell won a handicap at Galway on the horse in August 2010.

The trainer went on to state how good grounds suits the [90.0]-shot.

In other Grand National news, previous race winner Robbie Power has been booked to partner Stuart Crawford's Killyglen, a faller at the final ditch last year.

Thomas Gibney's Lion Na Bearnai showed thorough stamina reserves to deny the Edward o'Grady-trained Out Now in the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse......

Get Me Out Of Here finally landed the decent prize his consistent efforts have deserved when winning the Grade Two Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle at Fairyhouse......

Akeed Mofeed, well backed in recent days for the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, will miss the race through injury....

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Grand National News: Alfa to swim not sink says up-Beat Shark

News / Timeform / 09 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Alfa Beat fell in last year's Topham Chase over the National fences

"Hanlon still believes Alfa Beat can produce a bold showing, pointing to the fact that the yard has been out of form for a large part of the season as a reason for his low-key efforts."

Trainer Shark Hanlon has issued an upbeat bulletin regards his Grand National runner Alfa Beat, suggesting that punters who overlook the horse do so at their peril...

Alfa Beat, who is rated 150 over fences by Timeform, has twice landed September's Kerry National at Listowel, has only been seen twice since winning the most recent renewal, unseating at Leopardstown in January and pulling up at Fairyhouse in Februay.,

However, despite not going into Saturday's race with a positive performance behind him, Hanlon still believes Alfa Beat can produce a bold showing, pointing to the fact that the yard has been out of form for a large part of the season as a reason for his low-key efforts.

With the stable having sent out a point winner in the last few days, the trainer is now more bullish and has even booked top rider Davy Russell (four completions from 10 rides), whose closest National placing came aboard seventh Joes Edge in 2006, for the eight-year-old grey. Russell won a handicap at Galway on the horse in August 2010.

The trainer went on to state how good grounds suits the [90.0]-shot.

In other Grand National news, previous race winner Robbie Power has been booked to partner Stuart Crawford's Killyglen, a faller at the final ditch last year.

Thomas Gibney's Lion Na Bearnai showed thorough stamina reserves to deny the Edward o'Grady-trained Out Now in the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse......

Get Me Out Of Here finally landed the decent prize his consistent efforts have deserved when winning the Grade Two Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle at Fairyhouse......

Akeed Mofeed, well backed in recent days for the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, will miss the race through injury....

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Irish National preview: Fringe looks a cut above Fairyhouse rivals

Ante-post / Timeform / 05 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

JP McManus looks set to hold a strong hand in the Irish National on Monday.

"On The Fringe is already established as one of the top hunters, fourth in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham in 2010/11 and third to Salsify at Leopardstown on his reappearance..."

The Irish National is the highlight of Fairyhouse's prestigious Easter Festival, and this year's renewal looks set to prove a typically competitive affair...

Four Commanders made steady progress throughout the campaign, winning a maiden chase at Down Royal in November and making the frame every outing since. He again impressed with his jumping when third to Teaforthree in the four-miler at the Cheltenham Festival and his straightforward style of racing (tends to be ridden prominently) means that he should avoid traffic problems, but he may just prove vulnerable to speedier sorts.

Groody Hill progressed in leaps and bounds before the turn of the year, finishing with a flourish to nail Ad Idem close home in the Troytown at Navan and complete the hat-trick, before finishing an excellent third an ultra-competitive race at Leopardstown over Christmas, likely to have finished closer but for a mistake two out. He's been freshened up since that busy spell and should give a good account.

Cross Appeal is another to have gone the right way this campaign and doubled his tally over fences in the aforementioned contest at Leopardstown. He scrambled home by three-quarters of a length in the end, though, having been around four lengths clear at the last, so his stamina for this longer trip is by no means copper-bottomed.

Ninetieth Minute took advantage of a straightforward task in a maiden chase at Fairyhouse last time and seems sure to get a lenient mark in relation to the pick of his hurdles form. That came back in 2009/10, though, so it remains to be seen whether he is quite the force of old, while his attitude has long been a cause for concern. With stamina doubts and lack of chasing experience further negatives, he looks opposable at the current prices [13.5].

Alfie Sherrin returned to form in first-time cheekpieces to land a Cheltenham Festival handicap last time, doing so in the manner of one who will be suited by this sort of trip, and still looks feasibly weighted judged on his strong hurdling form of a couple of years ago. He has been let down by his jumping before, but was far better in that department last time and has to be accorded respect.

Allee Garde didn't look well beforehand and got no further than the twelfth in the four-miler at Cheltenham last time, but his form on this side of the Irish Sea prior to Cheltenham reads quite well, third in graded races at Leopardstown and Naas and shaping as if a marathon trip would be right up his street. He seems well suited by a sound surface.

Lastoftheleaders represents last year's winning trainer and has a similar sort of profile to Organisedconfusion, having been campaigned at significantly shorter trips all season, as well as having his final prep run over hurdles. He's certainly done enough to suggest he's in good heart in recent outings, his latest run over fences saw him rout the field in a seventeen-furlong handicap at this track. With plenty of stamina in his pedigree he looks a major player.

Quiscover Fontaine ran well in this race last year, patiently ridden and meeting some trouble before keeping on well, eventually finishing fourth to Organisedconfusion. He's set to race off 1 lb lower here, having been campaigned exclusively over hurdles this time round, and has solid each-way prospects.

Glam Gerry has gone the right way since switched to handicaps in this sphere, landing a gamble at Leopardstown over Christmas and unlucky not to get closer when third in a typically competitive Cheltenham handicap last time, left with plenty to do the way things panned out before flying home. His strong finish that day bodes well for his prospects of staying this far and he could be a threat to all if his jumping holds up.

On The Fringe is very lightly raced under Rules but is already established as one of the top hunters, fourth in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham in 2010/11 and third to Salsify at Leopardstown on his reappearance, shaping as if the run would bring him on. His initial mark looks lenient and he is definitely one for the shortlist.

Aigle d'Or is presumably quite a fragile sort given his profile, but he has done enough this season to suggest he could be up to landing one of these big handicaps when things fall his way, unlucky not to finish closer when sixth at Leopardstown over Christmas. He rounds off what looks a potentially strong challenge for JP McManus.

This isn't an easy race to assess with confidence at present, as several runners also hold entries in the Aintree Grand National the following Saturday, so it could pay to look for a bit of value. One who seems likely to take part and give a good account is On The Fringe, who looks well handicapped and is currently trading around [44.0]. With a relatively quick surface seeming likely after a dry spell, stamina won't be tested as it sometimes can be in this race and Lastoftheleaders is another to consider.

Recommendations
Back On The Fringe at [44.0]
Back Lastoftheleaders at [16.5]

Saturday March 31 sees the seasonal return of British Turf Flat racing, with Doncaster's Lincoln Handicap being the traditional curtain raiser that urges Flat racing fans to wake up from their winter hibernation. Timeform's Matt Gardner searches through the field in the hope of unearthing a spot of ante-post value......

There are three meetings in Ireland this weekend but the one that stands out is at the Curragh, as it signals the start of the Irish Flat season proper. Timeform look at the pick of the action........

With temperatures predicted to hit 20°C it isn't going to feel much like the cold season at Lingfield on Saturday, where the Winter Derby head's a quality card. Timeform's Adam Brookes takes a look at the ten-furlong Group 3 feature and warms to the claims of one horse in particular......

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Grand National: Henderson hoping it's Boom time

News / Timeform / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Nicky Henderson is hoping to break his National duck this year.

"I think 10st 12lb is an area horses can win from and he's in good form. It's nice he's been there once before..."

Nicky Henderson is looking forward to Shakalakaboomboom flying the flag for his Seven Barrows base in the Grand National at Aintree on Saturday week...

The Lambourn trainer has been trying to win the world's greatest steeplechase for more than 30 years, without success.

However, in Shakalakaboomboom he has a horse that jumped the National fences when seventh in the Topham Chase last season, and this term his preparation has gone perfectly well so far.

"He's our intended runner and is all ready to go," Henderson told At The Races.

"After the Topham, in which he jumped beautifully, it was just that two-miles-six was a bit short for him.

"He went on to Punchestown where he won the Pat Taaffe Chase, then he came out at Cheltenham over three miles and a bit first time out this season and his stamina helped him a lot. He was second in the Great Yorkshire (at Doncaster).

"It's been a nice preparation, it's always been the plan and consequently he didn't go to Cheltenham.

"I think 10st 12lb is an area horses can win from and he's in good form. It's nice he's been there once before."

Henderson also has Burton Port in the National but the Cheltenham Gold Cup fourth is more likely to run in the Bowl at the big meeting on Merseyside instead.

"We've discussed it with Trevor (Hemmings, owner) and we are still undecided as he also has Ballabriggs in the National so it's more likely that Burton Port will run in the Bowl rather than the National," Henderson went on.

"He ran a very good race in the Gold Cup. We have National fences here and he has jumped them well but he's not a big fella and he would have a great chance in the Bowl.

"Trevor already has Ballabriggs in the National so it seems sensible to play it that way.

He's still in the National and he's there as a reserve if, God forbid, something went wrong with Ballabriggs. We could bring Burton Port into it, or think about it anyway."

Shakalakaboomboom is currently available at [29.0] for the Grand National, with the David Pipe-trained Junior heading the market at [13.0].

A crackerjack line up of youngsters will take their place in the $3.5 million Group 1 Golden Slipper Stakes (off 07:05 BST) at Rosehill on Saturday in a contest befitting the richest two-year-old race in the world writes Timeform's man 'Down Under', Gary Crispe......

The Prix Imprudence at Maisons-Laffitte on Thursday features a couple of live outsiders for the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 6.......

Former champion jockey and new Betfair columnist, Ryan Moore, will partner the Richard Hannon-trained Rockinante in Thursday's Group 3 Prix Jebel at Maisons-Laffitte......

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