April 5, 2013

Grand National 2013: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

Timeform take you through all 40 horses scheduled to line up in the 2013 Grand National.

Imperial Commander (trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies/jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies) is bidding to become the third Gold Cup winner (after Golden Miller and L'Escargot) to also land the Grand National, and is potentially very well treated on his 2010 Gold Cup form despite top weight here. He's had training setbacks since his comeback second at Cheltenham in January, will be without regular jockey Paddy Brennan (suspended) and has stamina to prove, though.

What A Friend (Paul Nicholls/Sam Thomas) was among the favourites off just a 1 lb lower mark when pulled up in the 2011 Grand National but has been operating below his best since, his attitude looking suspect, and he's likely to be among the outsiders this time around.

Weird Al (Donald McCain/Timmy Murphy) is a high-class chaser on his day, but is fragile and has been far more out than in over past 15 months, while he didn't really take to the course prior to falling four out (when beaten) in this race last year.

Quel Esprit (Willie Mullins/Paul Townend) has clearly been campaigned with this race in mind and shaped well until the lack of a recent run told behind Sir des Champs in the Irish Hennessy on his belated return. Has been given a chance by the handicapper, but three big-race falls earlier in his career does rather temper enthusiasm.

Big Fella Thanks (Tom George/Denis O'Regan) has completed on all four tries over these fences, including when fourth in the 2010 Grand National, and has been revitalised by a change of yards this winter, proving as good as ever when winning at Wincanton in January. However, that was over a much shorter trip and he has always been found wanting for stamina in this race.

Seabass (Ted Walsh/Katie Walsh) was sent off joint-favourite when finishing five lengths third to Neptune Collonges in this race a year ago, jumping impressively and tiring only after the last. He's ultra-consistent (finished a perfectly respectable third to Roi du Mee at Fairyhouse on recent chase return) and should give another good account, but 5 lb higher mark this time round might just stop him winning.

Roberto Goldback (Nicky Henderson/Barry Geraghty) is trained by Nicky Henderson, who has yet to saddle a Grand National winner, and this giant 11-year-old is his sole hope this year. Ran out a wide-margin winner at Ascot on his debut for the yard in the autumn and has slipped back down the weights since, so could perform better than recent form figures suggest he might.

Sunnyhillboy (Jonjo O'Neill/Richie McLernon) was pipped by Neptune Collonges in the closest-ever Grand National finish last year, when he took surprisingly well to the course considering he'd had jumping issues earlier in his career. He has been restricted to just two hurdling starts since (withdrawn from Gold Cup following a bad scope) and 10 lb higher mark could leave him vulnerable.

Ballabriggs (Donald McCain/Jason Maguire) provided the McCain family with their fifth Grand National win in 2011, the first three of which came courtesy of Red Rum. That horse remains the only multiple National winner in the past 77 years, with Ballabriggs managing only sixth when defending his crown in 2012, and he hasn't really shown enough this season to suggest he'll be up to taking advantage of a slipping mark.

Teaforthree (Rebecca Curtis/Nick Scholfield) narrowly failed to justify favouritism in the Welsh National in January and would probably be even shorter in the betting here but for a rare poor run next time, when he was possibly still feeling effects of that Chepstow effort. His prominent style of racing, combined with notably fluent jumping technique, has long marked him down as an ideal candidate for the Grand National.

Across The Bay (Donald McCain/Henry Brooke) has proved better than ever since joining Donald McCain last season, winning decent prizes over both fences and hurdles this winter, but his lazy style of racing, plus sometimes suspect jumping, are far from ideal for Aintree and he's likely to struggle with conditions forecast to be less than testing.

Join Together (Paul Nicholls/Daryl Jacob) has long appealed as an out-and-out stayer, whilst he also took well to these fences when a fast-finishing second in the Becher Chase in December. His last run at Doncaster is easily overlooked (badly hampered early) but he looks plenty high enough in the weights now, while he sometimes doesn't live up to expectations on the big-race stage.

Colbert Station (Ted Walsh/AP McCoy) represents the same stable as 2000 winner Papillon- as well as Seabass- and appeals as one of the most progressive runners in the field, having won the valuable Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Colbert Station remains open to improvement and is the choice of champion jockey AP McCoy (who could also have ridden Sunnyhillboy), though he arguably lacks experience for this test having had only had five starts over fences. 

Forpadydeplasterer (Tom Cooper/Andrew J McNamara) isn't the force of old, despite winning a three-mile minor event at Thurles back in the autumn, and stepping into a huge unknown with regards to the trip (best form at up to 21 furlongs). Others make much more appeal.

On His Own (Willie Mullins/Ruby Walsh) looked a natural over these fences in this race 12 months ago until hesitating and coming down at second Becher's. Jumping could again be his Achilles' heel given his relative lack of experience, but he's racing off the same mark and looked better than ever in his comeback win over hurdles. He's a must for the shortlist with Ruby Walsh taking over in the saddle.

Joncol (Paul Nolan/Robbie Power) was a dual Grade 1-winning chaser in 2009/10, but he's seemingly not the force of old nowadays (has hinted at a physical problem) and is easy to oppose here even though his allotted handicap mark reflects his slide.

Balthazar King (Philip Hobbs/Richard Johnson) is an enthusiastic front runner who has done very well since trying his hand at cross-country chasing, the same route taken by 2007 Grand National winner Silver Birch, but looks to be plenty high enough in the weights now.

Cappa Bleu (Evan Williams/Paul Moloney) represents connections who have made the frame in each of the last four Grand Nationals, and finished a staying-on fourth himself behind Neptune Collonges in 2012. Arguably left with too much to do on that occasion, so he's very much one to consider off a 2 lb lower mark this time around, particularly after an encouraging second at Ascot on his final prep run.

Oscar Time (Martin Lynch/Sam Waley-Cohen) is ridden by amateur jockey Sam Waley-Choen, who has a terrific record over these fences, most famously when pairing up with Oscar Time (off this mark) to finish second to Ballabriggs in the 2011 National. However, the horse is now 12 and hasn't looked the force of old this winter.

Always Waining (Peter Bowen/Tom O'Brien) reserves his best for these fences nowadays, having won the last three renewals of the Topham Chase, held the day before the National. Finally gets his chance to tackle this race, but he has always looked a non-stayer over this sort of trip and connections would have surely been better off going for the shorter race again.

Tatenen (Richard Rowe/Andrew Thornton) won at Ascot from a 1 lb lower mark in January of last year, but doesn't stay beyond three miles and unseated his rider at the first Canal Turn in last year's National, while his form since has been patchy.

Treacle (Tom Taaffe/Andrew Lynch) is a smart stayer and comes here fresh after a light campaign, winning a minor event at Down Royal last month. Didn't really take to these fences in the 2012 race, however, already a fair way back when falling at the tenth.

Lost Glory (Jonjo O'Neill/Mark Walsh) was a prolific winner over both hurdles and fences during early months of both 2011/12 and 2012/13, though he hasn't been seen since winning at Chepstow back in October and likely to find this too tough.

Swing Bill (David Pipe/Conor O'Farrell) has coped pretty well on three of four tries over these fences, though fourth place in this season's Becher Chase is the closest he's come to winning and he will surely find it too much to win this race off a career-high mark at the age of 12.

Saint Are (Tim Vaughan/Dougie Costello) clearly suits Aintree in the spring, as his two wins over jumps have come in big races at this meeting in 2011 and 2012. Sketchy jumping strongly suggests that he won't be completing the hat-trick in the biggest test of all, however.

Chicago Grey (Gordon Elliott/Paul Carberry) had been without a win since the 2011 Cheltenham Festival until springing a surprise at Navan in February, shortly after the Grand National weights were announced. He's duly one of the best-handicapped runners, so clearly warrants respect for all the jumping issues he's had in the past (admittedly not at fault when making an early exit in this race last year).

Quiscover Fontaine (Willie Mullins/David Casey) shaped quite well until falling at the seventeenth when an outsider in the 2012 renewal, but hasn't offered much in three starts this winter, whilst both his trainer and owner appear to have far stronger candidates elsewhere.

Rare Bob (Dessie Hughes/Bryan Cooper) has gone without a win for some time, but he's much better handicapped than that might suggest: he's actually weighted to reverse placings with Seabass from Fairyhouse in February. A strong-travelling sort who usually jumps well (brought down at the fifth in 2012 Grand National), he holds strong each-way claims.

The Rainbow Hunter (Kim Bailey/Aidan Coleman) is trained by Kim Bailey, who saddled Mr Frisk to National glory in 1990, but unfortunately this nine-year-old isn't anything like so fluent a jumper as that one and those jumping frailties must temper enthusiasm here, for all he's looked an improved performer this winter.

Becauseicouldntsee (Noel Glynn/Martin Ferris) is a giant gelding but he didn't last long in either the 2011 (fell second) or 2012 (unseated eighth) renewals of this race. Hinted at a return to form with a tongue strap fitted at Cheltenham last month, but still easy to oppose here.

Harry The Viking (Paul Nicholls/Ryan Mahon) has been disappointing since finishing runner-up to Teaforthree over 4m at last year's Cheltenham Festival, but probably needed run there last time and may well emerge as best of the Paul Nicholls trio, though that still may not be good enough.

Mr Moonshine (Sue Smith/Peter Buchanan) is undoubtedly useful on his day, finishing second in a Grade 3 at Wetherby over Christmas from a 1 lb higher mark than this, but he's folded tamely on both starts since and is difficult to fancy here.

Mumbles Head (Peter Bowen/Jamie Moore) enjoyed something of an Indian summer during early months of 2012/13. Often let down by jumping in big-field handicap chases, however, and fell heavily at the first fence in the Becher Chase in December.

Ninetieth Minute (Tom Taaffe/Niall Madden) won the Coral Cup in a past life, but his form over fences has been patchy and seldom anywhere near as good, so he's very difficult to fancy. 

Auroras Encore (Sue Smith/Ryan Mania) often comes into his own at this time of year, including when finishing a narrow runner-up in the Scottish National last term. Potentially well handicapped on that effort, but form has been very in-and-out since.

Tarquinius (Gordon Elliott/Wilson Renwick) was much improved after joining Gordon Elliott last summer, winning three times and finishing a narrow second in the Thystes Chase since. He's handicapped right up to his best now and will need to find oodles of improvement.

Any Currency (Martin Keighley/Ian Popham) tends to save his best for marathon events, a trend which has continued this season, but has looked exposed from this mark of late and is probably too lazy to make an impact in this. He also failed to complete on his only start over these fences.

Major Malarkey (Nigel Twiston-Davies/Tom Scudamore) has become a feature in decent staying handicaps, his best effort this season coming when a neck second in the London National in December, but he's without a win in well over two years and is unlikely to break that pattern in the Grand National.

Soll (Jo Hughes/Mark Grant) got back to his best when making all at Sandown last month, when he was aided by a very bold display of jumping. He should stay long distances, but he found it all too much in both the Hennessy and Welsh National earlier in the season and this will be no easier.

Viking Blond (Nigel Twiston-Davies/Adam Wedge) tends to go from the front, a tactic which has brought some success, notably when he finished third in a Grade 3 at Cheltenham in November. Bad days far outnumber his good ones, though, and weak finishes on two of his last three starts hardly encourages.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. On His Own
2. Rare Bob
3. Cappa Bleu

Timeform view: On His Own's market position looks justified and he can become the first winner from Ireland since 2007. Gordon Elliott was the last trainer to take the prize back across the Irish Sea and saddles the potentially well-handicapped Chicago Grey. At a bigger price Rare Bob makes plenty of each-way appeal for Dessie Hughes, while Cappa Bleu is unlikely to be far away again with a clear round.

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