Which will it be: the relay, the bluff or the roundabout? Jamie Lynch looks at history to find out how the big race could develop and what the ramifications might be...
An arm around an injured fellow athlete; quality; equality; the general public supporting in droves; adversity; tears in victory, tears in defeat; exhaustion; being captivated without knowing the scoring system; athletic brilliance; the self-wonder whether you could keep pace for just one lap in the middle of the 10,000m; the phrase 'news will follow shortly' scrolling across the TV screen; teamwork; individualism. Through the fortnight, we were told, by various Olympians and experts, that each one of the above, and many more besides, are 'what the Olympics is all about.' It says a lot about the Games and its coverage that a stubborn cynic like me has to stretch quite so far to find something to pick at, but it did seem as if any and every snapshot was apparently 'what it's all about.'
That's the shortcomings of the commentators and not the Olympics itself, of course, and it's easier criticised than determined, but if there's one thing the Olympics could learn from racing, rather than looking at it the other way around as is the fad, it's how more dispassionate and pointed analysis makes for greater appreciation of the event.
What's racing all about? Time and timing. Time is what shapes races and, ultimately, defines racehorses. The time a race is run in and, moreover, the time lapse between the horses at the finish, expressed as lengths, is the means to judge and rate every racehorse, individually as well as against each other. Timing, or opportunity in this sense, is key as racing is both continuous and generational, and what a horse can achieve in one month or one era is different from its possibilities in another. Take Excelebration, for example, whose star is dimmer than it might otherwise be because he's in the age of Frankel, unfortunately for Ballydoyle.
What's it all about for Ballydoyle? Speaking after he won the Juddmonte International aboard Duke of Marmalade in 2008, run that year at Newmarket after York was waterlogged, in a race of some controversy for alleged team tactics whereby stablemate Red Rock Canyon made a gap, Johnny Murtagh said: 'I didn't want to start worrying about other horses. I just wanted to worry about myself and Colm (O'Donoghue, rider of Red Rock Canyon) and I said to him, 'When you get to the four marker, just ease off and give me the passage through'. It's what Ballydoyle's all about.'
Obviously, that's not quite what Ballydoyle is all about, but strategy is clearly something that Aidan O'Brien and the team consider and apply, more so than any other racing superpower. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, but it always adds to the drama; and they're here, with a full compliment of players for once, to ask some questions of Frankel on his biggest day.
Frankel's invincibility over a mile seemed to almost be accepted by Ballydoyle, in that the pacemaker they ran in conjunction with Excelebration didn't try to mess with Bullet Train let alone Frankel in either the Lockinge or Queen Anne, and O'Brien didn't even bother in the Sussex, but he's bothering now, bringing a different big gun, St Nicholas Abbey, and not one but two apparent race-shapers. Time and timing. They may not have the firepower to seriously ask questions of Frankel, but you can bet that Balldoyle's three horses and three riders will ask questions of Tom Queally if nothing else.
The past informs the present, so before we guess and double-guess at tactics, let's look back at some of the more memorable Ballydoyle in-play strategies:
The Relay
Don't be naive enough to think that Ballydoyle are too respectful of Frankel to get after him, as they threw everything at Sea The Stars, who was the hero of Irish racing, in 2009. The Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown was the major attack, when O'Brien fielded five against Sea The Stars, including a speed horse in Mastercraftsman (winner of Irish Guineas and St James's Palace) and a stayer in Fame And Glory (had won Irish Derby), making for some doubt even before the race as to how they'd shape it.
In the event, it was run to test stamina, almost in a relay fashion to keep the pace strong, with four of the Ballydoyle contingent racing ahead of Sea The Stars and pressing on one after another, while Fame And Glory stalked in behind. Everything went to plan, and Fame And Glory came through to lead into the home straight, but Sea The Stars was too good.
The Bluff
The 2007 Eclipse featured a clash between that year's Derby winner Authorized and the 2006 Guineas winner George Washington, over the intermediate trip of a mile and a quarter. Authorized wanted the emphasis on stamina and George Washington on speed; Authorized had one helper and George Washington had three. At first, Authorized's pacemaker was joined and in fact egged on by two of the Coolmore horses, Archipenko and Yellowstone, but after two furlongs or so both were suddenly reined back into the main pack, rendering Champery virtually redundant in his role, clear and too isolated to impact on the race.
Ironically, it was a different tactic altogether which won the day, as Ryan Moore brought Notnowcato all the way over to race on his own stand side in search of faster ground, and he emerged on top, with a head between Authorized and George Washington in second and third.
The Roundabout
Rather more underhand this one, as the manoeuvring left Dettori fuming and Seamus Heffernan banned, initially set at 14 days for 'team tactics' but reduced on appeal to improper riding. Librettist, the biggest danger to George Washington in the 2006 QEII, was drawn in stall one, which in those days was the outside at Ascot, and he stayed wide most of the way around, influenced by the roundabout route taken by Heffernan on Ivan Denisovich who was kept alongside Librettist. In the home straight, Librettist ran out of steam, Dettori had steam coming out of his ears, and teamwork beat steamwork as George Washington quickened up the inside to win comfortably.
Which one, if any, will Aidan O'Brien have in mind to defeat the undefeated one? The relay must be long odds-on. Stamina is the unknown for Frankel going into the International, and stamina is what St Nicholas Abbey will need to be tested at this trip, so the likeliest use of the jokers in the pack is for Robin Hood to go hard until spent, then pass on the baton to Windsor Palace, to maximise St Nicholas Abbey's chance. The earlier they can tempt Frankel, or tempt Queally to be more precise, to put in those sub 11-second furlongs, the more vulnerable he may be in the finish. Time and timing.
Frankel's weak spot, and therefore easiest point of attack, is probably Bullet Train, his three-parts brother and tempo-setter. If the enemy of my enemy is my friend, then it goes that the friend of my enemy is my enemy, which in Ballydoyle's case is Bullet Train. Disrupt him, and you may just upset Frankel.
The previous two paragraphs have been full of 'ifs' and 'mays', and all of this conjecture is purely that, likely to be academic, as racing isn't all about time and timing- first and foremost it's about ability, and Frankel has more of that than any other horse in Timeform's experience, enabling him to overcome whatever traps or trips he faces.
I, for one, hope that Ballydoyle do employ 'the relay' strategy, as the stronger the pace the higher the threshold and the more chance of something out of this world by Frankel. Ballydoyle coming in numbers to the party is great news for York, great news for racing, and great news for Frankel.
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