Portland Handicap Preview: Rex to turn up the heat on Town Moor

If you forgive Rex Imperator's most unlucky run at York, forget his poor showing at Bath and remember his Windsor demolition job, you may just be rewarded handsomely...

Timeform's Matt Gardner looks ahead to the final day of Doncaster's St Leger meeting, encompassing both the main event itself and the Portland Handicap...

Without wanting to give the St Leger, and Camelot's Triple Crown bid, short shrift, there is very little point in discussing that event as Camelot will win. He will become the first horse to land the Triple Crown since Nijinsky in 1970 and, in all probability, will do it in equally taking style to all of his previous triumphs.

As Gordon Ramsay would say: "St Leger, DONE". Whilst on the topic of food programmes, a show that comes highly recommended is Man vs. Food, a programme where the sole premise is to challenge one blokes' capacity to devour immense portions, to stomach blazing spices and to live to tell the tale.

My personal favourite episode takes place in Portland (conveniently) where the presenter is faced with the "Great Balls of Fire Challenge". He has to consume a quintet of fritters packed with incredibly hot chilli peppers and an equally fiery salsa in a set amount of time, which appears to be no easy feat.

The rapidity with which the field for the 2012 renewal of the Portland Handicap will complete the five and a half furlong distance (average race time of 1:07:27 over the last five years) most likely compares closely to the bowel movements of Adam Richman following his encounter in Portland.

Which horse can get the run on the runs and cross the line first? It's a tricky puzzle to solve, and the best place to start is most likely with Prodigality, who is yet to finish outside of the first two in 2012. His five starts have yielded just the one win, but he was only just denied by a nose at York and his second-placed effort at Ripon can effectively be read as a win, miles clear of those that raced on his side of the track and finding only El Viento, who raced down the far side, a short-head too good.

He was allowed to race off the same mark on his subsequent start at Ffos Las and, whilst that effort may appear to have been a stall in his development, in all probability the softer ground simply blunted his speed and he cannot be written off on the back of that. However, he has been raised 4 lb by the handicapper for his troubles, and whilst that might not be enough to prevent another bold showing, it may just mean that he is destined to be the bridesmaid once more.

A race that has produced two interesting contenders for the Portland took place at Sandown on the first day of September. A competitive sprint handicap went the way of Edge Closer who, after a short break, proved that the majority of his old ability is still there with a two and a quarter length defeat of Face the Problem. The suspicion is, however, that he enjoyed the run of the race that day, travelling strongly in touch of a quick pace on the favoured far-side rail, and that the 8 lb hike in the weights will be enough to stop him going in once more.

The fourth-placed horse in the aforementioned contest was Ajjaadd, and he shaped very well from a poor draw in the middle of the track, showing good speed to race prominently before fading late on, doing much the best of those that forced the pace. The six-year-old looks sure to make a bold bid here and is very tempting to put forward as the selection, but there is one towards the head of the weights that makes even greater appeal.

Rex Imperator is his name, and he has an excellent chance of adding a third win to his CV. The three-year-old is currently my second favourite horse in training after Piscean (don't ask why I like that one so much, I'm not entirely sure myself), and his recent defeats at York and Bath are certainly not reasons to discount him from your calculations.

The Roger Charlton-trained gelding enjoyed no run whatsoever on the Knavesmire, badly hampered after halfway and taken back to the rear of the field, not being knocked about once his chance had gone and finishing with plenty of running left. His next outing at Bath was, on the ratings, the worst run of his career, but given that his best form has come on good to firm ground his flop on a soft surface didn't really come as a surprise.

Forgive and forget, that is the motto of this piece, and if you forgive Rex Imperator's most unlucky run at York, forget his poor showing at Bath and remember his Windsor demolition job, you may just be rewarded handsomely.

Others likely to garner support are Kaldoun Kingdom and Mass Rally. The first mentioned is certainly of interest from his BHA mark of 93, the lowest it has been for almost three years, and it was encouraging that he produced the best effort of his season last time out at York, despite the five and a half furlong trip looking barely adequate, as he stayed on to finish fifth. A similar scenario is likely to unfold here however, but it will be of note once he is returned to six furlongs.

Mass Rally is not the most resolute of characters, his tendency to find little for pressure something of a concern, but he found more than is usually the case when finishing three places ahead of Kaldoun Kingdom on his most recent start. He will still be on the bridle a furlong out but is difficult to win with in general and is not one for maximum faith.

The Portland Handicap will be over and done with in a flash, certainly much faster than Richman can complete many of his Man vs. Food challenges. Ajjaad makes plenty of appeal following an eyecatching outing at Sandown but the one that gets the vote is Rex Imperator who, if at his scorching best as when easily scoring at Windsor, could prove far too tough a proposition for his opponents to stomach.

Recommendation
Back Rex Imperator @ 11.010/1 in the Portland Handicap

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Ebor Handicap: Motivado makes final cut

Ante-post favourite Motivado just about made the cut for the Ebor at York on Saturday, scraping in as number 19 in the 20 runner affair.

Ante-post favourite Motivado just about made the cut for the Ebor at York on Saturday, scraping in as number 19 in the 20 runner affair...

He only gained his place in the line-up thanks to a 4lb penalty for winning a handicap at Glorious Goodwood three weeks ago. The Luca Cumani-trained Qahriman, who was also prominent in the ante-post market, is only first reserve. A Boy Named Suzi is second reserve. Following the live draw, Motivado was handed stall 8, whilst Qahriman will break from stall 1 if making it into the race.

There were no worries for the John Gosden team involved with Duke of Edinburgh Handicap winner Camborne (stall 14) as the four-year-old is near the top of the weights. They are headed by the Jessica Harrington-trained Steps To Freedom (stall 13). The County Kildare handler is also responsible for Bob Le Beau (stall six).

There are three other Irish challengers in the shape of Dermot Weld's Sense of Purpose (stall 22), Tommy Carmody's Royal Diamond (stall two) and the Aidan O'Brien-trained Harrison's Cave (stall nine), who got the last place in the line-up.

Champion Irish jumps trainer Willie Mullins has decided to run dual Royal Ascot victor Simenon in the Lonsdale Cup on the same card instead of the Ebor. English-born French-based trainer John Hammond is represented by Hammerfest (stall 21), who was runner-up to Camborne at Royal Ascot.

Among others in a fascinating renewal are Godolphin's Willing Foe (stall 16), course specialist Crackentorp (stall 17), 2011 Northumberland Plate winner Tominator (stall 10) and Number Theory (stall four), winner of the Old Newton Cup at Haydock. Dreamspeed, who finished fourth to Number Theory at Haydock, has been given stall 11.

Motivado tops Timeform's ratings for the prestigious handicap and is likely to be favourite for the race. You can bet on the contest here.

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Ebor Handicap: High Jinx not a certain starter

"He's in good form, but he is not a certain runner in the Ebor. We have not decided yet what his next destination will be."

James Fanshawe has revealed leading Ebor contender High Jinx is not certain to run in the famous York handicap...

The four-year-old son of High Chaparral won a valuable Newmarket prize on his penultimate start and was a leading fancy for the Ebor, having finished second over the course and distance in last month's Silver Cup. However, while a return to York is a possibility, the race is just one of a few options for Fanshawe's colt.

Fanshawe said: "He's in good form, but he is not a certain runner in the Ebor. We have not decided yet what his next destination will be. He'll be entered in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury on Saturday week and that is a possibility as well, so we'll see."

Unsurprisingly, High Jinx's price has drifted on Betfair in light of the news he is not a confirmed participant.

Fanshawe is more certain about the next port of call for his top-class sprinter Society Rock. The five-year-old came fifth behind Black Caviar in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot after badly missing the break and was last seen finishing third in the July Cup.

Next month's Sprint Cup at Haydock is his next target, after which he will aim for October's British Champions Sprint Stakes, a race Fanshawe won last year with the currently sidelined Deacon Blues.

"We gave him a break after the July Cup and the plan is to get him ready for Haydock. After that, the obvious target is the big sprint on Champions Day at Ascot," said Fanshawe.

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Ebor Handicap: York on agenda for Icon Dream

"It's the Ebor for him, I would think. Then we'll see after that..."

Jim Goldie has the Ebor Handicap as the target for Icon Dream after the five-year-old finished a close third in the John Smith's Northumberland Plate...

The Glasgow trainer is hoping the prestigious staying handicap at York on August 25 might lead to even greater things for the Sadler's Wells gelding.

"It's the Ebor for him, I would think. Then we'll see after that," said Goldie.

"He's rated 100 and we'll play it just one game at a time.

"We're just keeping him to selected races with him fresh and well and hopefully we'll get a pay day.

"If you win the Ebor, you get an invitation to the Melbourne Cup provided you get rated high enough. It's a tough race that one and is a Group One handicap."

Icon Dream is available to back in the Ebor market, with the likes of Simenon, High Jinx and Mount Athos all currently on the exchange.

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Timeform Daily: Lincoln Handicap, Saturday, Doncaster 15:15

Race of the Day / Timeform / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Fury (grey) bounce back and again lead home a big field?

"Fury lost his way towards the end of 2011 but is potentially well treated as a result and, having been gelded, is worth siding with..."

Timeform take a look at the runners for a typically competitive Lincoln Handicap, run over Town Moor's straight mile...

Edinburgh Knight thrived in 2011, signing off with success in 1m listed race at Kempton. Strong traveller who may do even better this year and has good record fresh.

Eton Forever ran away with Spring Mile here on last year's reappearance. Fine efforts in strong handicaps last 2 starts, behind Man of Action over C&D second occasion. Still unexposed and leading claims.

Smarty Socks won 2 big-field 7f handicaps last summer but just as effective over 1m. Has won fresh, but needs a career best to land this on return.

Man of Action improved again upon joining Godolphin, winning competitive C&D handicap at the St Leger meeting. Not at best in 2 runs at Meydan this year, however, and change of headgear needs to do trick.

Start Right was a useful performer for Luca Cumani, making frame in competitive events on 3 of 4 starts in 2011 and carried on in similar vein for Godolphin at Meydan in recent months. Visored first time here.

Mia's Boy is a hold-up performer who won 2 of last 3 starts in 2011, adding to good record here first occasion. Ran a blinder and not beaten far at Wolverhampton last time and place claims at big price.

Field of Dream has not won since days with Luca Cumani in 2010. Respectable effort for new yard at Meydan on return but way more needed to prevail here.

Cocozza won 7f Cork maiden at 2 yrs for John Oxx and signed off last season with 2 good efforts over 1¼m. Been well backed ahead of return/handicap debut for new trainer and unexposed.

Pintura was placed 4 times in valuable turf handicaps last season. Weighted to the hilt now, though, and poor effort behind several of these on reappearance at Wolverhampton.

Fury was unbeaten at 2 yrs, landing valuable sales race. Nose second to Tazahum highlight of disappointing 2011, but no surprise to see him prove different proposition this year having been gelded.

Askaud won class 3 fillies handicaps at Goodwood and Haydock (10.5f) last summer. Found listed company too strong final 2 starts and this looks too tough on reappearance.

Lowther was kept busy by Alan Bailey last year, winning twice at Wolverhampton and generally holding form well. Shown nothing in 2 runs at Dubai Carnival for current yard, though.

Clockmaker won twice at end of 2011 and solid efforts in defeat on polytrack since, third in listed race last time. Weighted right up to his best on return to a handicap, though.

Mull of Killough often shaped well for Richard Fahey and opened account for new yard at first attempt in 1m Lingfield handicap in January. Interesting on his third off current mark in this in 2010.

Brae Hill is a tactically versatile sort who raced alone on the stands' side when capturing the 7f Bunbury Cup last summer. Disappointing after, but second on return in this last year off same mark.

Don't Call Me signed off 2011 with success in 1m Ayr handicap on soft ground, responding well to refitting of tongue tie. Returns on career-high mark and others more persuasive.

Light From Mars won last year's Newbury Spring Cup (1m) for David Nicholls. 2 lb below that mark now and shaped encouragingly on return at Wolverhampton. Conditions will suit and an interesting contender.

Stevie Thunder's victories in 1m handicaps last summer preceded second in Cambridgeshire. Ran well in minor event when last seen in October but career best needed to make successful return in this.

Shavansky is a slow starter who posted couple of good efforts after taking 1m Chepstow handicap last summer. Not too harshly treated on return but would be surprise winner.

Amitola was as good as ever when making all in 1m Lingfield handicap in February, but come up short off revised mark twice since and this is even tougher.

Barren Brook won at York (9f) and here (1¼m) last summer and couple of creditable runs after. Seemingly hiding nothing from handicapper on return, though, and needed reappearance last season.

Dubai Dynamo ran well off higher marks in some competitive handicaps last season and some promise to take from 2 runs on polytrack in recent weeks. Not hard to make stronger case for others, though.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Fury
2. Cocozza
3. Eton Forever

Timeform View: A typically competitive Lincoln. Fury lost his way towards the end of 2011 but is potentially well treated as a result and, having been gelded, is worth siding with to continue his yard's fine record in the race. The unexposed Cocozza is interesting on debut for Marco Botti, while the likes of Eton Forever, Mull of Killough, Light From Mars and Mia's Boy should all go well.
...........
Racehorses of 2011 is out now and contains essays on the top performers, over 300 photos, Timeform Top 100s and much more. Click HERE to secure your copy.

The world's richest race, the $10 million Dubai World Cup at Meydan on Saturday March 31, has attracted a star-studded fourteen-runner field. Timeform give you their assessment of the race, runner by runner.......

It's all about quality on Turffontein's day-night card on Saturday as the SA Classic (due off 16:20 BST), the continent's richest race for three-year-old's, takes place over the track's tough 1800m. Here is a guide to the runners......

Timeform provide a runner-by-runner guide to a a fascinating handicap hurdle at Wetherby on Friday......

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Lincoln Handicap: Time to Mull over the Doncaster field

Ante-post / Matt Gardner / 27 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Doncaster stages the Lincoln on March 31.

"judging on his Lingfield win, when back to his best, it is difficult to argue that he [Mull of Killough] does not have just as good a chance of gaining victory."

Saturday March 31 sees the seasonal return of British Turf Flat racing, with Doncaster's Lincoln Handicap being the traditional curtain raiser that urges Flat racing fans to wake up from their winter hibernation. Timeform's Matt Gardner searches through the field in the hope of unearthing a spot of ante-post value...

Currently trading as favourite for the Lincoln Handicap is the Roger Varian-trained Eton Forever, a lightly-raced five-year-old who has visited the track just eight times since making his debut in April 2010. Successful in the Spring Mile, a consolation race to the Lincoln, at the meeting 12 months ago, Eton Forever marked himself down as a pattern race winner in waiting that day, travelling powerfully before bursting clear in the final furlong and having more in hand than the winning margin of three and three-quarter lengths.

However, a trio of defeats later and there has to be questions over his standing as the market leader, for all he came close to matching that Spring Mile form when runner-up to Man of Action on his final start last year at the same venue. While Eton Forever's two standout efforts have both been at Doncaster and it is very possible that he can return at his peak, taking the [7.0] currently available does not make much appeal.

Another that is prominent in the market is the William Haggas-trained Fury, who finished fifth to Frankel in the 2000 Guineas. Fury was unbeaten in his two starts as a two-year-old and showed smart form when winning the valuable Tattersalls Millions at Newmarket.

His Guineas run the following season was promising, too, confirming impressions that he was a Group winner in the making, but in even more emphatic style than Eton Forever he failed to live up to that billing throughout the rest of the season, not beating a single rival home in his final three starts.

Fury has since been gelded and has come in for notable market support but, again, the [8.6] available at present smacks as being on the skinny side for one with obvious doubts surrounding him in a race as competitive as this.

One that is more than worthy of consideration is Edinburgh Knight, who won his final two races of 2011. Although he had begun to look out of sorts, with disappointing efforts in the Stewards' Cup, Great St Wilfrid and Ayr Silver Cup serving as evidence, Edinburgh Knight bounced back with a win in the apprentice handicap on Champions Day at Ascot before improving on anything that had gone before when achieving listed success at Kempton in November. The suspicion, however, is that he is something of an "all or nothing" performer, making him difficult to fully commit to for all that he may run well.

Godolphin break new ground on the opening day of the 2012 Flat season by fielding their first ever runners in the Lincoln. Both Start Right and the aforementioned Man of Action have been plying their trade in Dubai over the winter, and it is the former that is marginally preferred on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings, although the duo come with negatives attached.

Start Right has been unable to get his head in front since July 2010, and excuses are seemingly on the thin side after curling up under pressure on his latest start. Man of Action boasts a win over Saturday's course and distance, when finishing just over a length and a half in front of Eton Forever, but he has looked awkward in his two starts at Meydan and does not seem one to be placing any faith in at present.

Smarty Socks, trained by David O'Meara, enjoyed a fantastic year in 2011, winning twice and racking up a number of solid efforts. His penultimate start last year, when runner-up at Ascot to potential pattern race performer Pastoral Player and his previous effort when successful at that same track were both career bests, and his final start of the year is worth forgiving as it may just have been one to many for the campaign. Smarty Socks appeals as one that will give you a run for your money, although he will typically be a hostage to his hold-up/weave through the field run style.

One that is really rather interesting indeed is Leviathan, trained by Tony Newcombe, although there is a very real possibility that he will not make the final field.

The five-year-old put up a career-best when winning at Salisbury off the same mark as he will run off on Saturday (89) and was arguably deserving of extra credit given the second, third and fourth were possibly at an advantage as the field split, Leviathan having to work hard to make up the forfeited ground. Things didn't really go to plan thereafter, but he has a reasonable excuse for his latest two poor efforts as he looks a non-stayer at a mile and a quarter. A return to a mile and this track (two runs here have yielded two of his better performances) are definite pluses, and he is worth supporting if making the Lincoln field. If he doesn't, he'll be worth backing for the Spring Mile.

A final one to mention is Mull of Killough, who scored on his debut for Jane Chapple-Hyam at Lingfield in January. The six-year-old finished third in the 2010 Lincoln, off the same BHA rating that he will race off on Saturday, and the Doncaster handicap has appealed as the ideal starting point for this horse for some time. His current price of [22.0] is almost double what his starting price was two years ago and, judging on his Lingfield win, when back to his best, it is difficult to argue that he does not have just as good a chance of gaining victory.

The Flat season could not get underway in much more competitive style than the Lincoln Handicap, and it should prove to be an exciting and informative event. Leviathan would be the selection were he a certain runner but, with doubts about him making the cut, he cannot be recommended as an ante-post selection, although he is well worth supporting in this contest should he make it, or in the Spring Mile should he not. Mull of Killough also appeals as one of the best value bets in the field, particularly with doubts creeping in regards the top two in the market.

Recommendation
Back Mull of Killough @ [22.0] for the Lincoln Handicap

There are three meetings in Ireland this weekend but the one that stands out is at the Curragh, as it signals the start of the Irish Flat season proper. Timeform look at the pick of the action........

With temperatures predicted to hit 20°C it isn't going to feel much like the cold season at Lingfield on Saturday, where the Winter Derby head's a quality card. Timeform's Adam Brookes takes a look at the ten-furlong Group 3 feature and warms to the claims of one horse in particular......

This weekend saw Roger Charlton's unbeaten three-year-old Top Offer attract market support for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 5......

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Lincoln Handicap News: No Lightning in Lincoln entry

News / Timeform / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Doncaster is the venue for this Saturday's Lincoln Handicap

"Now with David O'Meara, Penitent, who has a Timeform master rating of 112, was bought for 40,000 guineas by Middleham Park Racing at the Tattersalls Sales in October..."

Last year's winner Sweet Lightning has been taken out of the Lincoln, in which 2010 victor Penitent will now carry top weight at Doncaster on Saturday...

Now with David O'Meara, Penitent, who has a Timeform master rating of 112, was bought for 40,000 guineas by Middleham Park Racing at the Tattersalls Sales in October and was sent to the Nawton handler.

O'Meara also has a strong second string to his bow in Smarty Socks who has, so far, achieved a Timeform rating of 111.

Eton Forever (115), winner of the Spring Mile consolation race 12 months ago for Roger Varian, is this year near the head of the weights for the main event.

Edinburgh Knight (116), another ante-post fancy, is also set to carry a welter burden.

Godolphin still have two possible runners, Start Right (110) and Man Of Action (107), engaged, while Cocozza (102) is due to have his first run for Marco Botti.

Fury (111), fifth in the 2000 Guineas last season, is set to represent Lincoln specialist William Haggas.

Pintura (106) is one of several potential candidates for owner Dr Marwan Koukash.

Bonnie Brae (108), Font Of Wisdom (106) and Glor Na Mara (98) were also among those to have been taken out.

O'Meara, who made his mark in no uncertain terms last season, is looking to begin the new campaign the way he ended the last one - by saddling plenty of winners.

"Smarty Socks and Penitent will be our two runners, we have a third entry in Mont Ras but he won't get in (43rd on list)," said O'Meara.

"Penitent won the Lincoln off 98, he likes a bit of soft ground and he's off 108 now.

"We haven't had him long, Middleham Park bought him and kindly sent him to us.

"The two horses are very different, Smarty loves firm ground while Penitent likes a bit of cut.
One's a former winner while the other is at the top of his game and now running off 102 and has to improve again. Penitent has been there and done it and has slipped down a bit.

"Smarty is a hold-up horse whereas Penitent sits handy. Smarty is probably more effective at seven and he needs a strong-run race but he has won over a mile.

"He does have an issue sometimes of missing the break but he can cope with it.

"Smarty does like Doncaster. He's won there a couple of times but has to raise his game again. He finished sixth in the Spring Mile last year and tends to get better as the summer goes on and the ground gets quicker.

"We didn't expect him to break through the 100 barrier last year and he did so it's anyone's guess as to how much he'll find this year.

"Penitent has won a Listed race at Sandown on good ground so he doesn't have to have it soft but I don't think he'd run on good to firm.

"He doesn't show a great deal at home but when we take him away (to Tim Easterby's) to work him he shows more.

"Obviously he's won it so he's a class horse and he's grand to have around the place. Hopefully he'll be fit enough on Saturday, he's done plenty of work.

"Silvestre de Sousa will be in Dubai you'd think, so it will be up to Danny (Tudhope) which one he rides. He'll probably wait and see what the ground is like."

Champion jockey Paul Hanagan may have signed up to ride for Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum for the forthcoming season, but his first major ride will come for the Godolphin stable of Saeed bin Suroor.

Hanagan will ride Start Right while William Buick will partner Man Of Action as they become Godolphin`s first ever runners in the historic race.

"We have Paul Hanagan and William Buick on standby to ride," said Godolphin racing manager Simon Crisford.

"Paul Hanagan will partner Start Right and William Buick will ride Man Of Action. Both horses will run provided the ground is good or faster and have had a good winter in Dubai.

"Man Of Action is a course-and-distance winner over Doncaster's straight mile and likes being held up for a late run off a fast pace but just needs things to go his own way.

"Start Right has been freshened up since finishing third at Meydan last month and is going well at the moment.

"They are both fit after a winter campaign in Dubai, though neither managed to win, and arrived back in Britain on Sunday.

"This will be the first time Godolphin has had runners in the Lincoln. These two horses belong in heritage handicaps and there are only so many of them in the programme book.

"With Man Of Action being a course-and-distance winner, it seemed the obvious race for him, while there was nothing left for Start Right in Dubai.

"Start Right has been frustrating because he often runs very well but has not managed to get his head in front recently. One day his turn will come and hopefully that will be on Saturday.

"The key to both these horses is for them to have decent ground - on the fast side of good ideally - and they definitely do not want soft going."

Varian believes the straight mile at Doncaster plays to Eton Forever's strengths.

"He put up a few solid performances throughout last season," the Newmarket handler told At The Races.

"He's a horse that can go well fresh and he doesn't mind good, good to firm ground.
"I'm not sure if he's a better horse (this season).

"He's a horse that holds a good amount of ability, but he's five now and has only run eight times, so he's not got many miles on the clock."

The ante-post market for the Lincoln is currently headed by Eton Forever, who is available to back for the contest at ([7.0]). Fury and Cocozza are also prominent in the market, trading at ([9.0]) and ([14.0]) respectively.

...........
Racehorses of 2011 is out now and contains essays on the top performers, over 300 photos, Timeform Top 100s and much more. Click HERE to secure your copy.

Trainer Anthony Cummings has said that his three-year-old Strike The Stars will swerve the Doncaster Mile and instead head for the Rosehill Guineas on his way to the Australian Derby......

Godolphin's Gamilati has undergone surgery to remove a chip from her near-fore ankle and may now be forced to miss the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 6.......

Though the culmination of the all-weather season, it's difficult to see Winter Derby day at Lingfield as anything other than the beginning on the new Flat season given the quality of horses and the promising performances on show. David Johnson takes a look at them from the Timeform ratings perspective......

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Timeform Irish SmartPlays: Jenari confident selection on handicap bow

Tipping / Timeform / 04 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jessica Harrington trains Irish SmartPlay Jenari

"He [Jenari] developed into a smart bumper performer on good ground last term, finishing third in a Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival, and has progressed in chunks over hurdles so far"

There's an interesting card at Leopardstown to get stuck into today and Timeform's Irish team have come up with three more win bets.....

The two-mile handicap hurdle at 15:00 looks a competitive affair at first glance, but on closer inspection Jenari really does stand out on his debut in this sphere. He developed into a smart bumper performer on good ground last term, finishing third in a Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival, and has progressed in chunks over hurdles so far, chasing home a subsequent Grade 2 winner in a novice at Navan last time. His initial mark looks fair and it's reasonable to expect plenty of improvement now he's back on a sound surface. He represents a yard who have come back to form with a bang of late as well.

Donnas Palm battled well to win a Grade 2 at Navan last time but the balance of his form suggests he isn't the force of old, and he looks vulnerable to the strong-travelling Slieveardagh in the novice chase at 15:30. Slieveardagh has form on a par with Donnas Palm over fences, a good second to Bog Warrior last time, and should be ideally suited by today's conditions, while Barry Geraghty is back in the saddle.

The 21-furlong handicap chase half an hour later contains quite a few in-form sorts. Montan comes here at the top of his game and Mister First won by a wide margin at Naas last time, but it's Colbert Station who looks to have the most compelling credentials. He won a seventeen furlong maiden chase in good style here in January and looks open to plenty of improvement upped in trip for his handicap debut over the larger obstacles. The booking of Ruby Walsh is a further plus, making Colbert Station a confident selection.

Timeform Smartplays

Back Jenari in the 15:00
Back Slieveardagh in the 15:30
Back Colbert Station n the 16:00
..........
Timeform Horses to Follow 2012 is out now! Includes Fifty to follow on the Flat, top trainer interviews & much more! Click HERE for more information.

Today's bets run at Leopardstown and Sedgefield...

The standard of racing isn't high today but winners are winners and these are David Cleary's Sunday selections for you to consider......

Followers will know their fate early on today - the selection runs in the opener at Huntingdon...

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Cheltenham Festival: Handicap weights announced

News / Timeform / 01 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Weights for the Cheltenham handicaps have been released.

"Hunt Ball, a remarkably progressive seven-year-old who has won six of his last seven races, will have to carry 12-00 if he line-up..."

With the weights announced for the Cheltenham Festival handicaps, Timeform take a look at those set to carry top-weight and what bearing they have had on the ante-post markets...

JLT Speciality Handicap Chase (maximum field of 24)

2011 Grand National winner Ballabriggs heads the weights (11-12), alongside the David Bridgwater-trained The Giant Bolster. The former is set to make his seasonal reappearance at Kelso prior to the Festival, so he is not a certain runner at Cheltenham.

Others of interest in the field include the progressive Hold On Julio (10-11), who currently heads the market at [7.2], December Gold Cup winner Quantitativeeasing (11-07) and The Package (10-05), who could go on to contest the National.

Cross Country Handicap Chase (16)

Uncle Junior (11-12), trained by Willie Mullins, looks set to carry top-weight in the Cross Country Chase. He currently trades at [6.2], but at present market preference is for stablemate Scotsirish (11-09) who is trading at [3.6].

Garde Champetre, who has won six times over Cheltenham's cross country course, has been allotted 11-08 whilst Sizing Australia, winner of the race last year, will carry 11-01.

Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase (20)

Hunt Ball, a remarkably progressive seven-year-old who has won six of his last seven races, will have to carry 12-00 if he line-up in this race, which was his original target, with his BHA mark of 142 taking him above the ratings band for this contest.

Others of interest would be current market leader Triolo d'Alene (11-07), who was successful on his British debut at Ascot in January. Ackertack (11-06), who finished one place behind Triolo d'Alene on his latest start and Bless The Wings (11-10), a winner at Cheltenham on his most recent start, also feature prominently in the market.

Coral Cup (28)

King of the Night, Restless Harry and Smad Place look set to carry 11-12 in the Coral Cup, with current market leader Get Me Out of Here allotted 11-10.

Final Approach, winner of the Country Hurdle last year, will carry 11-04 if lining-up in this race, whilst Carlito Brigante will carry 10 lb more than when successful in this corresponding contest 12 months ago (11-10).

Fred Winter (24)

The Tom George-trained Baby Mix has been allotted top-weight for the Fred Winter, although it is more likely that he will head to the Triumph Hurdle, for which he is second-best in the market at [8.2].

Vendor is currently favourite for this contest, trading at [5.0] and will carry 10-04. Others to note are the Paul Nicholls-trained Hinterland (11-02) and the David Pipe-trained Kazlian (10-05).

Pertemps Final (24)

Restless Harry (11-12) would also carry top-weight were he to line-up here rather than the Coral Cup.

Presently heading the market is Our Father (11-03), who improved significantly to win on handicap debut at Ascot last time. Buena Vista, winner of the race for the last two years, will carry just 2 lb more than 12 months ago on 10-09, whilst Sonofvic, who created an excellent impression on his first three starts under Rules before disappointing in the Dipper Novices' Chase last time, reverts to hurdles here and will carry 10-10.

Byrne Group Plate (24)

The Giant Bolster will carry 11-12 if taking part in this event, with last seasons' Centenary Novices' Chase winner Divers, trained by Ferdy Murphy, set to carry 10-08.

Hunt Ball (10-08) will have considerably less weight to carry if taking up his entry, whilst the David Pipe-trained pair Great Endeavour (11-09) and Salut Flo (10-03) may also run, although the former is more likely to contest the Ryanair, for which he can currently be backed at [14.0].

Kim Muir (24)

The Jonjo O'Neill-trained Arbor Supreme has been allotted top-weight for the Kim Muir, and currently trades at [36.0].

More toward the fore of the market are Mostly Bob (11-04), Qianshan Leader (11-02) and Deal Done (10-13).

County Hurdle (28)

Brampour, trained by Paul Nicholls, will bear top-weight in the Country Hurdle. It is likely that Harry Derham will take the ride, claiming a handy 7 lb to ease the welter burden.

It is the Irish-trained pair Moon Dice and Citizenship that dominate the market, and will carry 11-00 and 9-12 respectively. Another runner to note Raya Star, who followed-up his Ascot win with an excellent third in the Betfair Hurdle, and will carry 10-08.

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle (24)

Decoy is, at present, a clear market leader for trainer David Pipe. The six-year-old travelled well for a long way on his most recent start, and will carry 10-08 here.

Top-weight is Third Intention, who will have to carry 12-06 as a result of his win in the National Sprit Hurdle at Fontwell recently, although he also has an option in the Coral Cup. Ted Spread, very impressive when winning on his third start over hurdles, will carry 11-02, as will the Donald McCain-trained Bourne, successful on his first handicap start at Ascot when readily beating Smad Place.

Grand Annual (24)

The final race of Cheltenham 2010 will be the Grand Annual, for which French Opera has been allocated top-weight. Tanks For That, also trained by Nicky Henderson, looks set to carry 10-13 in this event, whilst Astracad (10-09) and Kid Cassidy (10-09), another Henderson inmate, are of interest although the latter has an entry in the Arkle and may miss Cheltenham entirely in favour of Aintree.

Philip Hobbs believes the stronger guaranteed pace in the Racing Post Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival will be of great benefit to Menorah....

Leading Kentucky Derby contender Algorithms has been ruled out of the Churchill Downs classic through injury......

Trainer Brian Hamilton has confirmed amateur rider Declan Lavery will maintain his partnership with Champion Bumper favourite Moscow Mannon....

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NBA Handicap Betting: Jeremy Lin the real deal

Basketball / Nick Shiambouros / 14 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jeremy Lin has scored an incredible 109 points in his first four games as a starter

"I think the Knicks will be very difficult to beat and should easily cover the 3.5 point handicap."

There are some important games taking place on Tuesday as this outstanding season continues. Guiding you through the best bets on the handicap lines is Nick Shiambouros.

New York Knicks v Toronto Raptors

The Knicks are 13-15 but have won their last five. The main reason for this string of victories is the emergence of point-guard Jeremy Lin from Harvard University. This young man has captured the hearts of the entire nation with his brilliant play. In Lin's first four games as a starter he has scored an incredible 109 points. This is the most by a player in his first four starts in NBA history.

Make no mistake, Jeremy Lin is the real deal and is a star in the making.

The Raptors are 9-20 and are struggling. On Sunday they suffered a heartbreaking loss to the Los Angeles Lakers 94-92.Kobe Bryant drilled a baseline jump shot in the final seconds to seal the victory for the Lakers.

I think the Knicks will be very difficult to beat and should easily cover the 3.5 point handicap. They look like a different team with Jeremy Lin in the rotation and are playing with supreme confidence. This is one game well worth staying up for.

Miami Heat v Indiana Pacers

The Heat are 22-7 and playing really well. On Sunday they thrashed Milwaukee 114-96 with a clinical display of basketball. The great LeBron James scored 35 points and missed just five times in the entire game.

The Pacers are 17-10 but have lost their last three. Indiana really needs to increase their defensive intensity to have a chance against Miami.

The Pacers have allowed an average of 102.7 points in the last three games and this will not get the job done.

The Heat have owned the Pacers in the past and will be attempting to record their fourth straight road win on Tuesday.

I will be very surprised if Miami don't easily take care of the Pacers. They are firing on all cylinders and should be backed at around [2.0] with the -1.5 handicap.

San Antonio Spurs v Detroit Pistons

The Spurs are 19-9 and are only two games behind Oklahoma in the Western Conference. San Antonio have been on fire recently and are riding a seven game winning streak.

Point- guard Tony Parker has been in sparking form for San Antonio and will give the Pistons more than they can handle in this one.

The Pistons are 8-21 and are in desperate shape. They are only averaging 87.2 points per game which is poor to say the least.

Greg Monroe has carried the team offensively and is averaging 21.3 points per game. This talented center needs some support in a hurry.

I think San Antonio will run up the score and should be backed at around [1.9] with the -8 handicap.

Recommended Wagers Tuesday

Back New York Knicks at [2.0] with advertised handicap -3.5 2pts
Back Miami Heat at [2.0] with advertised handicap -1.5 1pt
Back San Antonio Spurs at [1.9] with advertised handicap -8 1pt

With important NBA fixtures on Friday, Nick Shiambouros explains how you can profit via handicap betting advice....

Three matches to consider in the NBA on Wednesday night but which side of the handicaps do we want to be on, asks Nick Shiambouros....

There are some very important games taking place on Friday night as this exciting season unfolds. Nick Shiambouros looks at three games with handicap betting advice....

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Lincoln Handicap: Eton Forever heads the entries

News / Timeform / 08 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Eton Forever's early season target will be the Lincoln.

"Eton Forever has wintered very well and, although it is still very early days, he will be on a training schedule to get him to the Lincoln..."

The Roger Varian-trained Eton Forever features among 97 initial entries for the Lincoln at Doncaster on March 31...

The historic handicap is the traditional curtain-raiser to the Flat season and Eton Forever showed a liking for Town Moor when running away with the Spring Mile, a consolation race for the Lincoln, on the same card last year.

The five-year-old, rated 111 by Timeform, went on to run three creditable races in defeat and his trainer is keeping his fingers crossed for further improvement.

"Eton Forever has wintered very well and, although it is still very early days, he will be on a training schedule to get him to the Lincoln, although a lot can happen in the meantime," said Varian.

"He didn't do much wrong last season. He ran two good races at Ascot but we came away from there, particularly after the Royal Hunt Cup where he was travelling very well two furlongs out, thinking that he didn't really get the trip over that stiff mile.

"We think an easy mile like the Doncaster mile or a stiff seven furlongs will be his ideal trip.

"He is rated 103 (BHA rating) now, which is quite a high mark and he hasn't done anything to suggest he should be any higher than that, but time will tell if he progresses further this season.

"He is a very likeable horse, with good ability, and the type of horse who runs well fresh so we will target him at the race as it might be the best time to catch him early on in the season."

The Michael Dods-trained Sweet Lightning took the Lincoln in 2011 and, although injury has kept him out of action since, connections are still hopeful he will be ready to defend his crown.

Tim Jones, racing manager for owner Andrew Tinkler, said: "Sweet Lightning is in Dubai at the moment and is going to have one or maybe two runs out there leading up the Lincoln. We will take it from there.

"The reality is that he is now rated significantly higher than he was last year (8lb higher) so whether he can go there and carry that sort of weight in the Lincoln or not, I don't know.

"Very shortly after last year's success he suffered an injury that he has taken a very long time to recover from, so it is a matter of trying to find out whether or not he has retained his ability, but he appears to be in great form at the moment.

"I would like to think he has more improvement in him. The plan will be for Johnny Murtagh to ride him again and similar ground to last year will be perfect."

Unbeaten champion Black Caviar will face eight rivals in Saturday's $400,000 C.F. Orr Stakes at Caulfield (due off 04:50 GMT) when she goes for her 18th straight victory and her eighth at Group 1 level......

Current Supreme Novices' Hurdle favourite Steps To Freedom remains on course to have a run on the Flat at Dundalk on Friday February 17......

With Saturday's card at Newbury at the mercy of the elements, Betfair have opened a market regarding whether racing will take place......

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Festival Handicap Chase: Charlton sets Knockara Beau March aim

News / Timeform / 01 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Knockara Beau has opening day target.

"He was a little bit sore after the race, but he's champion now."

George Charlton has Cheltenham Festival aspirations for Knockara Beau following his third-placed finish in the Argento Chase.

Although the nine-year-old, rated 147x over fences but 149 over hurdles by Timeform, did not jump with as much verve as connections might have wished, a second-fence mishap did him no favours.

Trainer George Charlton said: "He hit the second (fence) and twisted a vertebrae. He was a little bit sore after the race, but he's champion now.

"The ground was also a bit tacky at the weekend and that didn't help, either."

The Northumberland handler is now considering running Knockara Beau in the JLT Specialty Chase, for which he's currently [27.0], on the first day of the Festival on March 13.

He added: "We'll probably enter him in one of the handicaps at Cheltenham, but he's gone up 7lb for the weekend, which is not exactly ideal.

"There's an open handicap over three miles on March 13 that we might look at, but I'd love to try him over further in time.

"He loves Cheltenham - the undulating track plays to his strengths."

As expected, last year's Grand National hero Ballabriggs will return for another crack at the Aintree showpiece on Saturday April 14......

Carruthers could be back in action at Newbury on Saturday week after escaping serious injury in the Coral Welsh National....

Trainer Robbie Hennessy will follow a tried-and-tested route by running Rubi Light at Gowran before heading to Cheltenham......

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Timeform Daily: November Handicap, Doncaster 15:10

Race of the Day / Timeform / 04 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Doncaster stages the November Handicap on Saturday.

"A typically competitive renewal of this traditional end-of-season feature. Willing Foe catches the eye as a lightly-raced sort who shaped with promise on his belated return, but just as interesting is Pekan Star who's had little racing himself and threatens to be suited by the longer trip..."

Timeform take a look at the November Handicap, the traditional Flat season finale...

Montaff brought losing run to an end over 2m at Ripon in April. Runner-up in Henry II and Northumberland Plate since, but disappointing the last twice and this probably an inadequate test.

Harlestone Times gained a gritty win over 1½m at Goodwood in May, but less impact off higher marks since, fifth in the Mallard at Doncaster last time. Vulnerable at the weights once more.

Kiama Bay is a progressive sort who completed a hat-trick in handicaps over 1½m earlier in the year and has remained in form since, runner-up in listed race at Chester last time. Sure to give it another good go.

The Betchworth Kid is a hold-up sort who captured Nottingham listed race in April. Never dangerous in handicaps the last twice, however, and lot more needed if he's to repeat his second in this race last year.

Willing Foe made marked progress when winning first 3 starts last season at up to 1½m, and promising return when fourth at Newbury recently. Steps back up in trip here, and remains open to improvement.

Burj Nahar created a favourable impression when winning first 2 starts 20 months apart. Gone backwards since, though, failing to beat any home when tried in a tongue tie here last time.

Tepmokea is a free-going sort who made a winning return in 1½m event at York in May. Limited impact off higher mark since (had excuse last time), and handicapper probably still in control despite 2 lb drop.

Classic Vintage boasts some strong handicap form and twice a winner over 1½m this year, including in first-time blinkers at Ffos Las last time. This a much more competitive race, however.

Resurge is a hold-up performer who goes well at Epsom. Below par since latest victory there in a handicap in June, and trip an unknown on only second try beyond 1¼m.

Merchant of Dubai is a C&D winner who made fair start for present yard back in May after 12 months off. Not built on that over various trips since, and hard to recommend even with assessor relenting.

Pekan Star is a lightly-raced sort who created a good impression when successful on handicap bow at York (1¼m) in May. Not built on that yet, but fresher than most (gelded during break) and new trip could suit.

Demolition largely held his form for Richard Fahey and career best on first start back with Noel Wilson last month, landing Nottingham handicap (1¼m). Just as effective at this trip and not out of it.

Ile de Re was useful in France at up to 2m, and lot to like about the manner of his win at Ascot on debut for new yard. Found life tougher since, seventh in listed race back in France last time.

Zuider Zee has been knocking on the door this season, improving bit more when third in Old Borough Cup at Haydock penultimate start. Lesser effort last time but still a likely player back from a short break.

Itlaaq was well suited by the emphasis being on speed when scoring over 2m at York in July. Ran just as well when fourth over 1½m at Newmarket last time, but vulnerable off this mark.

Crackentorp gained second success of the year over 1½m at York (beat Kiama Bay) in August, battling well. Struggled off 5 lb higher mark in Old Borough Cup at Haydock, and this no easier.

Hanoverian Baron thrived for joining present yard, winning 4 times over 1¼m/1½m in less than a year. Shaped well on return back in May but absence since doesn't augur well, and wide draw far from ideal.

Oceanway improved since being upped to 9f/1¼m, winning 3 times since June, most recently at York in October. Lesser effort at Newbury since, and stamina for this trip not assured.

Enroller was a smart performer back in 2009. Missed all next season and not shown a great deal in 2 starts this year, though been given a chance by the handicapper. The more rain the better.

Scrapper Smith has taken on new lease of life since upped to 1¼m, winning twice prior to a good second to European Dream at Ayr last week. Ground remains in his favour but has stamina to prove up further in trip.

Status Symbol has been back on the up of late, winning at Newmarket (1½m) prior to third at Haydock last time. Well drawn for a front runner and likely to give his all once more despite creeping back up weights.

Bramalea won 3 handicaps up to 1½m in 2010 for Brendan Duke, and better than ever when landing a gamble in a similar event at Epsom for current yard in August. Well held in listed race sole outing since.

Samsons Son is better than ever in light campaign, winning 2 of his 3 starts, including heavy-ground handicap over this trip at Goodwood in September. Up to a career-high mark after that.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Pekan Star
2. Willing Foe
3. Zuider Zee

Timeform View: A typically competitive renewal of this traditional end-of-season feature. Willing Foe catches the eye as a lightly-raced sort who shaped with promise on his belated return, but just as interesting is Pekan Star, who's had little racing himself and threatens to be suited by the longer trip. Zuider Zee is another who could well play a leading role.

Timeform Race Cards for the Breeders' Cup are now available! Get the best ratings and analysis for both days by clicking here to download!

Timeform take a look at a competitive handicap chase at Fontwell Park......

Timeform run the rule over an interesting handicap hurdle at Musselburgh......

Timeform take a look at an interesting conditions event over a mile at Nottingham......

Betfair website

Betfair Weekend at Ascot: International Handicap wide open

Tipping / Stephen Molyneux / 19 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Who will you back backing in the big handicap at Ascot on Saturday?

"everything points to Western Aristocrat being hugely competitive despite his lofty rating..."

The International Handicap, the first leg of the Betfair Summer Double, looks as competitive as ever. Timeform's Stephen Molyneux has a look at some of the leading candidates, and reckons there are three to keep on side...

It's a slightly odd move to see a horse perform with such credit in a Group race then drop to a handicap, particularly a lightly-raced sort like Western Aristocrat, but that's exactly what he'll be doing should he line up in the International on Saturday.

It's unlike Jeremy Noseda to throw his charges in at the deep end, Western Aristocrat tackling the Jersey on the back of a win at Haydock off a mark of 88, but he was fully justified in doing so and arguably shaped best of the rest in finishing third behind Strong Suit, set plenty to do yet beaten little under a length. He is now fully 20 lb higher than when successful at Haydock on his second start, officially rated 108, but the runner-up that day Rhythm of Light subsequently won the Sandringham handicap at Royal Ascot (off a mark of 94) and everything points to Western Aristocrat being hugely competitive despite his lofty rating, particularly with the promise of more to come.

Timeform top-rated will be Excellent Guest, who has run two fine races to finish runner-up in similar events on his last two outings. He seemed beaten on merit in the Buckingham Palace at the Royal meeting but that wasn't the case in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket more recently, comfortably on top of the remainder yet no match for Brae Hill who went solo against the near rail. Brae Hill was surely at an advantage in doing so, subsequent events in the July Cup going some way to proving as much, and it will be a little surprising if that one can confirm the form over Imperial Guest despite carrying just a 3 lb penalty.

Hawkeyethenoo carries top weight having already landed one of these big handicaps this season, his victory coming in the Victoria Cup over this very course and distance. That was his first start over 7f for a good while, but his fast-finishes over shorter always suggested he would prove just as good at the trip. An 8 lb rise needn't rule him out of things, but the fact that he was forced to miss Royal Ascot with a minor injury is a concern as he'll need to be right at the top of his game if he is to concede the weight, particularly if the ground became testing.

One horse who won't mind any significant easing in the ground is Striking Spirit, who ran a massive race under such conditions in the Buckingham Palace. He fared comfortably best of those in the low stalls at Ascot and it was the draw which again scuppered his chance in the Bunbury Cup last time. Striking Spirit is easily forgiven that Newmarket run and is worth another chance, looking overpriced at around the [23.0] mark.

Last year's 1-2, Castles In The Air and Noble Citizen, are both likely to line up once more. Castles In The Air finds himself below the mark off which he scored off 12 months ago yet simply doesn't seem in the same sort of form. There is always a chance he has been lined up for this but a leap of faith is clearly needed. Noble Citizen is in much better heart having won a handicap at the track last time, but that was a messy race and he invariably finds a couple too good in these heritage handicaps.

One who could run a big race at an attractive price is Pravda Street, one of several this year to benefit from a switch to Brian Ellison. He won his first two starts for the handler with the minimum of fuss and was having his third start in little over two weeks when beaten at Carlisle last time, whilst the trip was probably also further than suits him ideally. Pravda Street is a powerful traveller who should appreciate the likely strong pace and he shouldn't go unbacked at odds of around [40.0].

Recommendations
Back Western Aristocrat @ [6.6]
Back Pravda Street @ [40.0]
Back Striking Spirit @ [23.0]

Download a Free Race Card every day in July at timeform.com. Click HERE to register or see the menu.

You'd be forgiven for thinking that there's only one race taking place at Goodwood next week such has been the build-up to the Sussex Stakes. Timeform's Keith Melrose puts forward his view....

Three win selections for this evening's meeting at Ballinrobe......

Timeform run the rule over this sprint handicap......

Betfair website

Stradbroke Handicap Betting: Look to weight-for-age performers

Australia / Timeform / 10 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Love Conquers All (near side): Tops the Timeform ratings for the Stradbroke

"The winner of the 2011 Stradbroke Handicap should...come from the best three weight-for-age performed runners in Love Conquers All, Beaded and Black Piranha."

Weight-for-age performed gallopers in the form of Love Conquers All, Beaded and Black Piranha stand out as the obvious winning hopes in Saturday's Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap (1400m) at Eagle Farm. The race is due off at 06:40 BST on Saturday. Timeform's Gary Crispe runs the rule over the field

A capacity field of 18 will contest the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap (1400m) at Eagle Farm where the likes of Beaded, Black Piranha and Love Conquers All are some of the main hopes in what is an open market.

While six horses are currently quoted at single figure odds it is easiest to make cases for the previous three mentioned runners.

Love Conquers All is beginning to develop a reputation as being a Group 1 bridesmaid having finished runner up at his past three runs at the highest level. The four-year-old's latest effort in the Doomben 10,000 when a close second behind Beaded rated 123 which is now the entire's peak Timeform rating. Love Conquers All will meet both Beaded (1.5kg) and Black Piranha (2.5kg) considerably better off at the weights this Saturday in the Stradbroke Handicap than when they each went head to head in the Doomben 10,000. The Hawkes-trained runner has drawn wide which is of some concern however it should be noted six winners of the Stradbroke Handicap (1400m) in its past 20 renewals have won after jumping from wider than gate 12.

Beaded finally claimed a long overdue Group 1 last start in the Doomben 10,000 (1350m) where she also ran to her new peak Timeform figure of 120. The Peter Snowden-trained mare has be a model of consistency right throughout her career with ten wins and nine placings from 20 career starts. The only occasion Beaded didn't finish in the placings was when a close fourth behind Black Piranha during the 2010 renewal of the Stradbroke Handicap (1400m). Beaded contests the 2011 Stradbroke Handicap second up following a two-month break whereas the 2010 renewal was the daughter of Lonhro's sixth campaign start. The determined mare will go into the Stradbroke fitter from her latest winning effort where Beaded has hopefully shaken off her Group 1 jinx. Like last year though Beaded has drawn barrier 17 and will have little choice but to roll forward.
Beaded will be required to overcome another hoodoo on Saturday if she is to take out the Stradbroke Handicap with the last mare to win the event Capris in 1936.

Third behind both Beaded and Love Conquers All, Black Piranha also has to be considered as he seeks to become the first horse to win three consecutive Stradbroke Handicap's. Black Piranha recorded his peak Timeform figure of 124 when he claimed the 2010 Stradbroke Handicap (1400m) renewal. The veteran seven-year-old goes into Saturday's Stradbroke Handicap third up from a spell and based on his encouraging Doomben 10000 effort rated at 121, it appears trainer Con Karakatsanis will have the son of Clang peaking for this event. A rise to 1400m will also suit Black Piranha who was making ground on his Doomben 10000 rivals last start over the closing stages.

The combination of boasting the highest Timeform figures across the capacity field and their current form makes it hard to fault any of these three aforementioned runners.
They are also well weighted compared to a large majority of the field thanks to the weights being compressed. This is due to the early entries of Black Caviar and Hay List who were originally slugged with 60.5kg and 57.5kg respectively with connections of both sprinters subsequently electing not to contest the event.

Love Conquers All, Beaded and Black Piranha sit near the top of the market as they have previously run the Timeform figures necessary to win a moderate to strong renewal of the Stradbroke Handicap with the event's current five-year-average a touch under 120.

Other runners however are considered genuine chances based on markets for the race despite not also boasting such figures which we will now go through.

Robert Heathcote-trained Woorim currently shares joint favouritism for the race and while his last start win in the Group 3 BRC Sprint (1350m) was eye catching, it only yielded a Timeform rating of 112. The five-year-old will need to show improvement to the extent of a career best performance and has received no favours having drawn barrier 18.

Thankgodyou'rehere has a master Timeform figure of 113 which was achieved when third during the BRC Sprint. The Pat and Wayne Webster-trained five-year-old sits in the same boat as Woorim in terms of needing a career best performance to win Saturday's Stradbroke Handicap. The Sydney-based sprinter will however enjoy a better barrier, starting from 11 and 1400m is arguably his best distance.

Three-year-olds have won five of the past 20 Stradbroke Handicaps with Sincero and Buffering representing the current three-year-crop on Saturday.

Sincero is another quoted at single figure odds who will be required to lift in order to win a maiden Group 1. The Stephen Farley-trained three-year-old was an early favourite for the Stradbroke Handicap after success in the $250,000 Inglis 3YO Guineas (1600m) at Scone on May 14 with a performance rated 112. Doubters of Sincero have come out in droves since the Umatilla gelding was easily held in the Group 2 QTC Cup (1300m) last start when 11th. Sincero will wear blinkers for the first time in the Stradbroke Handicap (1400m) which may allow for the additional improvement required to be competitive on Saturday.

If people are looking for a runner to support at generous odds, a value option may be the Robert Heathcote-trained Buffering. Unlike Sincero, Buffering has the peak Timeform figure necessary to win a Stradbroke Handicap having taken out the Group 2 Victory Stakes (1200m) first up with a performance rated 121. Buffering was also at one stage an early favourite for the Stradbroke Handicap (1400m) however cold water was poured on his chances after the Mossman gelding finished a distant last in the Group 1 Doomben 10000 (1350m) a fortnight ago. It was Buffering's first attempt at a race greater than 1200m in distance and also at weight-for-age. If you can forgive the effort, at long odds and back to Handicap conditions, Buffering is worth some thought. Buffering will go to the lead and may take running down if he can bounce back from his disappointing performance last start where he overraced at stages.

Three of the last five winners of the Stradbroke Handicap have saluted at double figure odds. The winner of the 2011 Stradbroke Handicap should however come from the best three weight-for-age performed runners in Love Conquers All, Beaded and Black Piranha.

For all latest Australian news and free form, visit www.racingandsports.com.au

New Zealand raider Scarlett Lady and Peter Snowden-trained Divorces rate as the two fillies most likely to claim a maiden Group 1 in Saturday's Queensland Oaks (due off 07:00 BST) at Eagle Farm. Timeform's Gary Crispe looks at the race in detail.......

The shock scratching of Australia's crack sprinting "bridesmaid" Hay List, combined with the withdrawal of champion mare Black Caviar last week, has presented an unexpected winning opportunity for Beaded in Saturday's Group 1 Doomben 10000 (due off 07:00 BST), writes Timeform's Gary Crispe....

Timeform's man Down Under, Gary Crispe, gives you the lowdown on the Group 1 Doomben Cup, which is due off at 06:45 BST on Saturday morning ......

Betfair website

Madrid Masters Daily Tips: Del Potro can shade Nadal on the handicap

Events / Ben Caudell / 05 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Juan Martin Del Potro has found some serious form on clay over the last two weeks

"Although it’s extremely hard to oppose a Nadal win tonight, there is a strong possibility that Del Potro can take a set off the world No. 1. But my best bet will be to back Del Potro +4.5 Games at even money in the match handicap market."

Nadal is the undisputed king of clay and he should, as ever, find some way of beating Juan Martin Del Potro.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) v Juan Martin Del Potro

Thursday's pick of matches involves a pair of Grand Slam winners that will take centre stage and top billing at the Madrid Masters this evening.

World No. 1 Rafael Nadal faces Juan Martin Del Potro - the 2009 US Open Champion - for the ninth time in his career and for the second time in 2011; he currently leads their head-to-head series 5-3.

The Spaniard, who won this event last year defeating Roger Federer in the final, will have his work cut out today against the Argentine who looks to has finally recovered from a wrist injury that kept him out of the most part of the 2010 season. Del Potro has gone from strength to strength since his return and is a strong contender as the number one threat to Nadal's 2011 French Open campaign; he is currently joint-third favourite with Roger Federer, priced at [20.0].

There is no doubting Rafael Nadal's credentials on the clay, he is by far the best player to have ever graced the dirt and his statistics on the surface speak wonders. The Mallorca native has amassed 35 wins in a row on clay and is now 187-6 overall on the surface since 2005.

But the altitude and the stadium courts here play more like an indoor court than outdoor and help the bigger servers in the game with the speed of ball in the air a lot faster than at any other clay court tournament. This was highlighted when Del Potro won 80 per cent of service points to cruise past Marin Cilic 6-3 6-0 in just 64 minutes. His big serve could again benefit the Argentine when he faces Nadal tonight.

The Tandil native's recent form has been up there with the best. He won the Estoril Open last week defeating the number one and two seeds Robin Soderling and Fernando Verdasco respectively( both in straight sets) and he's won seven in a row on clay, seven of the last eight in Madrid and seven in a row in Europe.

Although it's extremely hard to oppose a Nadal win tonight, there is a strong possibility that Del Potro can take a set off the world No. 1. But my best bet will be to back Del Potro +4.5 Games at even money in the match handicap market. From their previous six best-of-three set matches the pair have played, only two have been won by Nadal by more than 4.5 Games. Furthermore, since the court surface change from indoor hard to clay in 2009, Nadal has won by this same margin of games just four out of his last ten matches.

Recommended Bets:

Back Del Potro +4.5 Games @ [2.0]

Gilles Simon is a wily and resilient opponent but stats and form suggest it should be a pretty comfortable match for Andy Murray, says Ben Caudell....

The one-time world number three is back and Ben Caudell anticipates another victory for him in the Spanish capital on day two......

Two big-serving Americans go head-to-head this afternoon on the red dirt of Madrid and we should see the more experienced of the two prevail, says Ben Caudell....

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Timeform Daily: Lincoln Handicap, Saturday, Doncaster 15:10

Race of the Day / Timeform / 02 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

"...they all may struggle to live with Taqleed, who fits the recent profile of an unexposed sort firmly on the upgrade."

Timeform run the rule over the first major handicap prize of the Flat season...

Harrison Georgerecord last season is very hard to fault, taking his form to a new level while winning four times at up to 1m. A claimer helps offset what looks a stiff mark on his return to handicap company.

Sweet Lightning looks in the handicapper's grip after a productive year in 2010 and more sound efforts in Dubai, plus he has done nearly all his racing over further, winning over as far as 1½m.

Castles In The Air's career highlight came when landing a strong 7f handicap at Ascot last July. He found life tougher off higher marks after, and has never shaped as if in need of this longer trip.

Lowther has enjoyed a really productive AW campaign, winning three times in all, looking better than ever at Wolverhampton on his last two starts. A penalty means he's got even more on his plate returned to turf.

Axiom's victory in a 7f Goodwood handicap in August was the highlight of what was otherwise a disappointing season in 2010. His mark is still higher than it was then on return for a new trainer, and others are more persuasive.

Light From Mars often ran with credit in top handicaps for Rod Millman last season without managing to get his head in front. His record fresh is encouraging, and it would be no surprise if his new yard conjures a bit more from him.

Docofthebay is a hold-up type who ended a three-year losing run in the autumn, finishing the year with a series of good efforts at 7f. He was as good as ever when runner-up on the AW last month, and is on a very fair mark.

Tartan Gigha battled well to gain two narrow wins at around 9f early last summer. He lost his form after, but returned to his best when finding only Lowther too good on the AW last month, and is 1 lb lower here.

Irish Heartbeat improved on joining this yard last year, winning the Spring Mile on his reappearance and a 6.5f handicap here in September. He has not always found much when it matters, but has a good record fresh and is the pick of Paul Hanagan.

Doctor Crane looked to be going in the right direction when landing a 1¼m handicap at Newmarket in May 2009 but has not been seen since. Eyeshields are fitted on this belated return, and his stable has a stronger candidate in Taqleed.

Dubai Hills proved a revelation when switched to 7f on fibresand, completing a four-timer in January. His progress came to a halt on polytrack, and he has probably done his winning for now, at least away from Southwell.

Kiwi Bay won twice over this trip at Redcar last season. He was largely below formotherwise, and tends to need a few runs to hit full stride.

Prime Exhibit was runner-up in the race last year off a 4 lb lower mark. He did well to finish so close to Lowther and Tartan Gigha on his reappearance after being hampered, and looks the pick of the Fahey brigade.

Brae Hill has a couple of 7f wins to his name around Chester and his best performances last season were at that track. He has raced freely, and his stable boasts stronger candidates on his return, particularly at this trip.

Taqleed powered clear in a1m maiden on his belated return last year and stepped up markedly when following up in a Newmarket handicap soon after. He ran creditably in the Cambridgeshire on his final start in 2010 and rates a smart prospect after just four starts.

Our Joe Mac appreciated soft ground when scoring at Haydock in August and things didn't go his way both starts later last year. A poor effort in the Irish equivalent of this race on his reappearance tempers enthusiasm.

Al Muheer enjoyed a productive 2009 for Clive Brittain, winning a valuable handicap at Ascot. He has not yet had the chance to show what he can really do for his present stable, and is potentially well treated on his return.

Dream Lodge failed to get his head in front last season for Richard Fahey as his attitude seemed to get the better of him. He is potentially well treated now for another good stable, though.

Fremont won two of his four starts as a juvenile, including an impressive success in a 7f Salisbury minor event. Things didn't go to plan in two handicaps last spring, and it would be a very good training performance were he to land this.

Prince of Dance was unbeaten in three starts in 2009, including in a 1m listed race. He was nowhere near asgood last year, and was well held on AW debut last month for another new stable.

Eton Rifles is a speedy performer who won twice over 6f in 2009, and showed better form in defeat on his final three starts last season. He has a career-high mark to contend with now, and 1m is far from certain to suit.

Gunner Lindley won a at Haydock as a 2-y-o and rounded off last season with a deserved victory over this trip at York. He is still relatively unexposed, and needs considering at the foot of the weights.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Taqleed
2. Prime Exhibit
3. Gunner Lindley

Timeform View: It would be no surprise were Prime Exhibit to fare best of those who ran at Wolverhampton last month, and he's the pick of the Fahey team. Docofthebay is dangerously handicapped, and Gunner Lindley needs considering at the foot of the weights, but they all may struggle to live with Taqleed, who fits the recent profile of an unexposed sort firmly on the upgrade.

Timeform run the rule over this sprint handicap......

Timeform run the rule over this interesting three-year-old handicap......

We're at Catterick for the first day of the Flat turf season......

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