Six Nations: England ready to land Six Nations glory

"England and France are vying for the mantle of favourites in the competition and the title could easily come down to their tussle at Twickenham."

Simon Mail previews the Six Nations and believes England can go one better than last year and claim the title.

The Six Nations gets underway in Cardiff this weekend and another six weeks of top class, competitive international rugby is eagerly anticipated; Grand Slam champions Wales come into this year with low expectations after a miserable seven-match losing run, meanwhile, England and France are vying for the mantle of favourites and the title could easily come down to their tussle at Twickenham towards the end of February.

Outright Winner

England come into the tournament with plenty of momentum after their outstanding victory over world champions New Zealand. The 38-21 win over the All Blacks in December is the highlight of Stuart Lancaster's spell in charge of England and suggests World Cup success in 2015 on home soil is not out of the question.

If England can come close to this level of performance in the Six Nations then they should be too strong for the opposition. Last year, the team finished second with four wins during Lancaster's initial interim coaching role, and there is no doubt that 12 months on England are in a stronger position with Chris Robshaw established as captain and the emergence of Owen Farrell at fly-half. 

France are an obvious championship threat considering their impressive form last autumn, although Philippe Saint-Andre's enigmatic side are always capable of throwing in a dreadful performance. Ireland have a decent fixture list but there are doubts about the current strength of the team and they have struggled to progress in the last 18 months. 

The fixtures are pretty favourable for England with the trip to Ireland in the second weekend looking the most awkward alongside a home clash with the French. But Lancaster's side managed to beat both teams last season including a 24-22 victory in Paris. Home advantage over France could prove crucial so take an improving England to win the Six Nations at 3.052/1. 

It may also pay off to back England at 43/1 to win the Triple Crown. Two of those matches are away from home but if they show the form produced against the All Blacks then they should be able to clinch these wins.  

Recommended Bet

Back England to win Six Nations at 3.052/1

Wooden Spoon

Wales have fallen dramatically from the highs of 12 months ago and with Warren Gatland absent due to his British and Irish Lions commitments it may be a very difficult season for them.

Scotland are in transition under interim coach Scott Johnson and they could prove troublesome opposition but will lack consistency, and Italy could cause teams problems at home but are still likely to finish bottom, as they have done in four of the last five years, at 1.538/15. 

Recommended Bet

Back Italy to finish bottom at 1.538/15

Top Try Scorer

Chris Ashton failed to make an impact last season but the England winger finished the previous Six Nations as the top scorer with six tries. This year could see a return to his prolific best form and he looked very sharp scoring twice for new club Saracens in dreadful conditions against Edinburgh last week. 

Ashton also finished joint top scorer at the last World Cup so his pedigree is proven at the highest level. The former Northampton Saints back will have taken a lot of confidence from scoring against New Zealand and I expect a big tournament from him so he's worth backing at 98/1 to finish as the top try scorer. 

If you want to take a slightly bigger priced player to top the try scoring charts, Simon Zebo could be the shrewd option. The Irish winger has burst onto the European stage for Munster in the last year, and at just 22, he grabbed a hat-trick in Munster's Heineken Cup win over Racing Metro earlier this month. Assuming he gets his chance in the Ireland side, Zebo could look overpriced if you can get anything around 2019/1.

Recommended Bets

Back Chris Ashton to be top try scorer at 98/1

Back Simon Zebo to be top try scorer at 2019/1 

Follow Simon's latest tips on Twitter @watfordtipster

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Serie A Season Preview: Old Lady ready to dominate once again

"Juventus were the best team in Italy by a long way last season, and this time around they look stronger, while their major rivals look weaker. What's not to like about a price of 2.186/5?"

Back Juventus to win Serie A @ 2.186/5

Italy's finest kick-off the Serie A season this weekend and, with their rivals weakened, Dave Farrar is finding it very hard to see past reigning champions Juventus...

I heard Zonal Marking's Michael Cox say recently that Serie A is the most open League in Europe. Now, Michael is someone for whom I have a great deal of time and respect, and is also of this parish, but I think that he's wrong. I can see where he's coming from: in Italy, there's no Real/Barca style domination, there's no Manchester hegemony, and certainly no Paris St Germain. But I think that Italy's top flight has a more obvious winner this season than another major European League, with the possible exception of France.

Juventus were the best team in Italy by a long way last season, and this time around they look stronger, while their major rivals look weaker. What's not to like about a price of 2.186/5?

Naysayers and contrarians will suggest that Antonio Conte's absence from the Juve bench will have a negative effect on the team: that's true, but remember that Conte will still be in charge of the day-to-day running of the club, and it's only on the touchline and the dressing room where he'll be missed. Juve look like one of those teams that can just about coach themselves, and Massimo Carrera should be more than capable of coping with the ten month task ahead. If they, as is widely reported, are able to sign Fernando Llorente, then they'll be yet more powerful.

So that's Juve, and in the limited number of words that I have, I'll dismiss the potential challengers as follows: Milan have lost the best three players in the division and signed a lump of a striker in Giampaolo Pazzini. Enjoy the cheque, Pazzo. Napoli have no Ezequiel Lavezzi and their squad still looks too small and short of quality. Inter are a side that COULD emerge as a challenger, but I'm prepared to gamble that the combination of an inexperienced coach in a high-pressure job, and a far from sparkling squad, will leave them short. Lazio are a shambles, Udinese have lost two high-class players, and Roma will be great to watch under Zdenek Zeman, but I can't see them putting together a realistic title challenge, although I'd love to see them do it. So far, so dismissive.

If you don't like the idea of taking 2.186/5, and are of the opinion that Juve are worth taking on, then you could do a lot worse than throw a speculative sum at Fiorentina. La Viola have recruited one of the best young coaches in Vincenzo Montella, and he in turn has recruited well, replacing Riccardo Montolivo with the likes of Borja Valero, Alberto Aquilani, David Pizarro and Matias Fernandez: I don't think that they'll win Serie A, but they can give us a trading angle from a starting point of around 170.0169/1 and are worth backing for a top-three finish at a double figure price.

The Top Goalscorer market looks interesting with a couple of potentially weak favourites to take on. I can't possibly criticise Antonio Di Natale whose goal scoring record in recent seasons has been astonishing. A weakened Udinese will be even more of a struggle this season for him though, and while Edinson Cavani is a wonderful player, he has lost a supplier in Ezequiel Lavezzi, and may have to share the goals around with Lorenzo Insigne and Goran Pandev.

Given Zeman's attacking philosophy, we have to have a Roma player on our side, and the man that I'm keen to support is new arrival Mattia Destro, who is an excellent finisher and a solid citizen, less likely to miss chunks of the season than his strike partner Pablo Osvaldo. If you can get him matched at around 11.010/1 then that would be a price worth taking. The other player that interests me is Stefan Jovetic of Fiorentina. He is as big as 28-1 with some fixed odds operators, and that's gigantic for a player with such talent and likely to be playing in such a good team. Try to get Jovetic matched at around 30.029/1

Recommended Bets
Back Juventus to win Serie A @ 2.186/5
Back Fiorentina Top 3 finish @ 10.09/1
Back Mattia Destro Top Goalscorer @ 11.010/1
Back Stefan Jovetic Top Goalscorer @ 30.029/1

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Golden Slipper Preview: Sama ready for Rosehill Group 1 challenge

News / Gary Crispe / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Unbeaten filly Samaready

"However if she [Samaready] can return to her peak rating of 123 she clearly rates as the horse to beat

A crackerjack line up of youngsters will take their place in the $3.5 million Group 1 Golden Slipper Stakes (off 07:05 BST) at Rosehill on Saturday in a contest befitting the richest two-year-old race in the world writes Timeform's man 'Down Under', Gary Crispe...

On ratings it is hard to go past the unbeaten filly Samaready who already has a Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes victory to her credit at just her third racetrack appearance. A win for Samaready will see her become part a select group of five juveniles to have taken the Blue Diamond Stakes/Golden Slipper Stakes double in 41 years; last year's double winner Sepoy the first horse in over 20 years to do so, joining Courtza (1989), Bounding Away (1986), Manikato (1978) and John's Hero (1972).

Samaready, unbeaten in four race starts, debuted last December at Flemington down the straight 1000m with a soft win before being put away to mature for the Autumn. In a sign of just of just how much improvement she had made during her spell, Samaready resumed in the Group 3 Blue Diamond Prelude (1100m) in early February with an impressive display, winning untouched by over three lengths in very fast time.

That effort ensured she started a firm favourite in the Blue Diamond Stakes, a race she took in dominant style. Samaready in doing so recorded a Timeform rating of 123 to become the highest rated filly to win the feature in the last 25 years and just 1 lb below Sepoy who is the highest Timeform rated winner of the race in the same period.

Her astute trainer Mick Price knows just how difficult it is to have a juvenile peak twice in a campaign, which is why not many youngsters have been able to complete the Blue Diamond/Golden Slipper double, two group one races generally within a month of each other in different States and on different tracks, one clockwise and the other anti clockwise. So Price wisely let the filly have some easy time before embarking on a Sydney campaign that would lead to the Golden Slipper.

After a month's break, the Reisling Stakes was selected as her Sydney debut run and lead up to the Slipper. Opposed to a handy field including Gimcrack Stakes winner Hussousa, Samaready settled second last early before getting into the race approaching the 600m where rider Craig Newitt made a long run around the field. Samaready took a little time to balance up around Rosehill but once she put her mind on the proceedings, she quickly lengthened putting the race beyond doubt, idling to the line defeating Hussousa by two lengths.

As expected, Samaready rated 121, slightly below her Blue Diamond figure. However if she can return to her peak rating of 123 she clearly rates as the horse to beat, especially as she will receive an additional 2kgs from the males under the set weights of the race.

Her main danger Pierro also raced on the same day winning the Todman Stakes in a close finish over Epaulette rating to a new peak of 122 enabling some interesting direct and indirect form line comparisons between the pair to be established. At level weights, Pierro's race time was 0.05 seconds slower than Samaready and the filly has an additional 2kgs weight advantage.

At his start prior Pierro had beaten Hussousa in the Group 2 Silver Slipper Stakes by a length when conceding 2kgs to her which, when adjusted for level weights, also confirms there would be just over two lengths between Pierro and Hussousa. This almost confirms the same result from the Todman/Reisling times/weight comparison which gives Samaready at least 2kgs advantage over Pierro, all things being equal. Weight adjusted Timeform ratings analysis also leads to the same conclusion that Samaready has a clear edge over the colts.

That said Pierro, who will start from the inside barrier, much like Samaready has continued to improve from a limited number of race starts. If he improves again and Samaready goes backwards, then he could be the horse to beat. Pierro is undefeated in three runs but has been champion trainer Gai Waterhouse's main Slipper chance since his narrow debut win in the listed Breeders' Plate at Randwick last October.After a spell, he resumed with a strong win in the Silver Slipper then battled hard to hold out Black Opal Stakes winner Epaulette in the Todman Stakes.

Champion jockey Nash Rawiller who is searching for his first Slipper win, retains the mount which is a major asset in any feature race. Waterhouse on the other hand is chasing her fourth Slipper winner having already trained Sebring (2008), Dance Hero (2004) and Ha Ha (2001).

Away from Samaready and Pierro, the well drawn Black Opal Stakes winner Epaulette looms as a definite chance if the Peter Snowden-trained galloper runs to his narrow Todman Stakes defeat where he also rated 122.

A half brother to multiple top-level winner Helmet, Epaulette has raced just three times for two wins and a narrow defeat in the Todman, taking his Timeform rating from 106 to 122 in the process. Unlike in the Black Opal where he was ridden for speed, in the Todman Epaulette was ridden quietly and he finished the race off solidly, something which maybe an advantage on Saturday. After reaching the lead 200m form home, Pierro fought back solidly to just nose him out on the line and like that horse is capable of further slight improvement.

However Slipper history has not been kind to Black Opal Stakes winners. While several Black Opal Stakes winners have been placed in the Golden Slipper, Decision Time the last in 2010, just one horse has completed the double in 38 years - Catbird in 1999.
Fillies No Looking Back (114), Driefontein (115) and Snitzerland (114) can all stake their claims if the top fancies falter, especially as they are significantly advantaged by the 2kgs weight advantage over the males.

No Looking Back brings excellent form lines to the race. After winning on debut at Warwick Farm, she took on the Magic Millions 2YO Classic on the Gold Coast and after defeating stablemate Driefontein in a close finish, lost the race in the steward's room in controversial circumstances. She then went to Melbourne for the Blue Diamond Stakes but drew a wide barrier. Despite being forced to cover additional ground she loomed up to Samaready in the straight but was unable to match that filly's acceleration in the last 200m finishing a creditable second.

Since then No Looking Back has barrier trialled and been kept right up to the mark fitness wise. With the all-conquering Craig Williams to take the mount she has to be respected as the "forgotten" horse of the race.

The unbeaten filly Driefontein, winner of the Magic Millions 2YO Classic on protest from stablemate No Looking Back stays under notice as a value hope. Given a 35 day break after her Magic Millions success, she narrowly scored in the Widden Stakes over 1100m at Warwick Farm in mid February holding her Timeform 115 rating. Driefontein comes into the Slipper off a six week break but being a Waterhouse-trained galloper that should be of no concern to punters. The filly will be ready to race to her best.

Snitzerland could be another value runner now that trainer Gerald Ryan has elected to fit her with blinkers on Saturday. A convincing winner of the Inglis Premier Race at Mornington before thrashing the Breeders' Stakes field down the Flemington straight 1200m, returning to Sydney she was disappointing behind Samaready in the Reisling Stakes. Snitzerland can be expected to improve on her Reisling effort.

While winning a Golden Slipper is never easy, the ratings clearly point to the race being won by one of the top three leading fancies. I don't see barrier 11 as a disadvantage and if Samaready reproduces either of her last two Timeform ratings, at the weights it is hard to see her being beaten.

..................
Get free form, cards & results for Australia at timeform.com/free/

The Prix Imprudence at Maisons-Laffitte on Thursday features a couple of live outsiders for the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 6.......

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Mali v Ivory Coast: Favourites ready to cruise through to final

African Cup Of Nations / James Eastham / 07 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Didier Drogba and team-mates celebrate a goal in their 3-0 quarter-final win

"Do Mali have the firepower to breach the Ivory Coast defence and make a game of this semi-final? My feeling is yes, even though Mali have managed just four goals in four games. They have more attacking talent than that goals tally suggests – and, as they're rank outsiders, all the pressure is on Ivory Coast."

James Eastham expects Ivory Coast to win but says their magnificent defensive record is about to end.

Mali v Ivory Coast, 19:00 GMT, British Eurosport, Match Odds: Mali 9.2, Ivory Coast 1.51, The Draw 4.3.

Ivory Coast were pre-season favourites to lift the trophy and have retained top position in the outright betting all the way through the tournament.

After recording three wins out of three in the group phase the Ivorians beat Equatorial Guinea 3-0 to take their place in the last four.

Despite the wonderful attacking talent in their squad Ivory Coast's progress has been built on a defence that has yet to concede a goal. Progress has been functional rather than flamboyant, but it's working for a nation determined to end their trophy drought.

"When we played the Nations Cup in 2010, 2006 and other years, we played great football and we didn't win anything," St Etienne attacker Max Gradel told the BBC. "But today the most important thing - as the coach tells us every day - is winning and it doesn't matter how you win.

"Everything our coach is telling us to do, we're doing it. On the pitch and off the pitch he's the boss."

Do Mali have the firepower to breach the Ivory Coast defence and make a game of this semi-final? My feeling is yes, even though Mali have managed just four goals in four games. They have more attacking talent than that goals tally suggests - and, as they're rank outsiders, all the pressure is on Ivory Coast.

That's why I would avoid the Ivory Coast to win to nil market at [1.91] or Ivory Coast to keep a clean sheet at [1.81]. Mali will throw everything at the favourites, and have better attacking players than Equatorial Guinea, who failed to find the net in the quarter-finals.

My main selection on the game would be Over 2.5 Goals at [2.28]. This is because Ivory Coast scored three times in the last eight and I give Mali a good chance of scoring, but also because of the stats from this tournament and semi-finals down the years. Fourteen of 28 (50%) matches in the competition so far have featured over 2.5 goals, and six of the last 12 Africa Cup of Nations semi-finals have had three goals or more. The odds-against price is therefore worth taking.

My second bet would be to oppose Ivory Coast keeping a clean sheet. The market offers a good price on the favourites conceding because of their excellent defensive record to date. You can back 'No' in the Ivory Coast Clean Sheet? market at [2.18].

Finally, there is historic evidence that one the semi-finals will result in a comfortable victory. Five of the last 12 Africa Cup of Nations semi-finals have seen a side triumph by three goals or more (two 3-0 scorelines, two 4-0s and a 4-1). Therefore you ought to consider backing Ivory Coast -1.5 Asian handicap at around [2.25] if you expect Didier Drogba and co. to get through.

Best Bet: Mali v Ivory Coast Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.28].
Other Recommended Bet: Ivory Coast not to Keep a Clean Sheet @ [2.18].

P&L: £10 staked on all James Eastham's tips during the 2010 World Cup and 2011 Copa America would have netted you a profit of £223.70 (33.4% ROI)

James Eastham expects this semi-final to go with the market even though Ghana have disappointed so far....

Feeling like Jack Nicholson in an Antonioni film, making do with basic levels of French in Gabon and predicting the demise of Mali at the hands of tournament favourites the Ivory Coast. It's Jonathan Wilson's diary....

Jonathan Wilson discusses a weekend of quarter-final matches and explains why he is especially look forward to Sunday......

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Follow The Money: Reelwill ready for another win?

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

How will our Fakenham bets fare?

"Reelwill's stable is in fantastic fettle of late and the money suggests a big run."

Today's Follow The Money comes from the cards at Doncaster and Fakenham

We begin with the 14:00 at Doncaster where Running Deer has been the subject of solid support, being backed from [9.32] in to [5.5]. This Hurricane Run-filly improved on her debut run when fourth at Nottingham last month and could well step up again today with progression expected from more racing. Sir Henry Cecil has a fantastic 29% strike rate with his runners at Doncaster when teaming up with jockey Tom Queally.

We move over to Fakenham now for their 16:30 2m Handicap Hurdle and Saute has been on the drift this morning out from [2.32] to [2.94]. This five-year-old gelding has had a summer campaign this year and managed to pick up a couple of handicaps on fast ground. As the weather gets colder and the ground a little softer it could be that we have seen his best. Beaten at a short price last time, he has been given a break and the money suggests he may struggle today.

We stay at Fakenham for our final mover of the day - Reelwill in the 17:05. This grey mare has been backed from [4.5] into [3.4]. Reelwill's sole success came in this race a year ago but since then has been well held in four starts. The win came after a seven month absence and today's race comes after a similarly long absence. The stable is in fantastic fettle of late and the money suggests a big run.

Recommended Bets
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http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=104163263&ex=2&origin=MRL&rfr=3013

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Brighton, Carlisle and Ludlow......

Todays Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Newmarket and Fontwell....

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Ready Brex?

Timeform Radio Tip / Graham Cunningham / 11 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Both Graham's selections run at Sandown today

"Backing King Brex at the best available price with a view to trading out at [3.0] in running looks a fair play."

Graham Cunningham selects a pair of lively Friday afternoon runners...

This thing they call Festival Fever is more real than people think. A night of cold sweats and sneezing has made form study difficult, but a couple of horses on the Sandown card are worth a second look.

First up is King Brex in the 14:20. He's no star, but Charlie Mann's team are in fine heart and he caught the eye travelling strongly for a long way at Kempton last time. Backing him at the best available price with a view to trading out at [3.0] in running looks a fair play.

Blu Teen looks a solid each way option in the 15:30. Granted, he finished behind Surenaga here last time, but he jumped and travelled powerfully for a long way and a 5lb pull makes him a live player on a track which suits him very well indeed.

Recommended bets:
Sandown 14:20: Back King Brex @ [6.8] and lay off at [3.0] in running
Sandown 15:30: Back Blue Teen win and place at [8.0]

Graham Cunningham selects a pair of lively Friday afternoon runners......

David Cleary selects today's Timeform Radio tips, with two lively runners......

Harry Bowles selects a couple of promising mid-week afternoon bets......

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Will Greenwood: England are ready to beat France

Match Previews / Will Greenwood / 23 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

England must makes themselves unbeatable at Twickenham

"Back England at [2.52] to win by a margin of less than 12.5 points and take a big step towards a first championship for eight years."

Two out of two for England and so far so good for Will Greenwood's bets on Johnno's men. But Saturday's match against France poses a big test to their Grand Slam ambitions and their aim of becoming one of the most feared teams in world rugby.

Is England v France a Six Nations Championship decider? The truth is this: if France win then, with only a trip to Rome and the visit of Wales to come, they will probably have wrapped up the title. If England win, they're well on their way but they still have to go to Dublin on the final day for a match that could yet derail their Grand Slam dream.

This is England's biggest match for 12 months. Last year, in Paris, they put in a pivotal display in going down 12-10, there was proactivity on and off the field and the ground was laid for the victories over Australia and the subsequent resurgence which sees the Red Rose [1.5] favourites for Saturday's match. There was little shame in the result against a very strong French 15, especially when you bear in mind the old saying that the French never lose within the sound of their own church bells.

Johnno's men can learn from France on that score. I was part of an England team that didn't lose at Twickenham for five years and if you want to be one of the big dogs of world rugby you simply cannot afford to be beaten at home.

At Twickenham this week, I caught a glimpse inside the home dressing room I know so well. I remember where I hung my kit, where I listened to team talks, where I went through all my pre-match rituals. Hell, I even remember the toilet. These are the things that impress themselves on you when you make your home ground a fortress. The current England side understand that winning at Twickenham needs to become a habit and in their heads they will be [1.01] to win on Saturday.

Le Crunch can often turn into an arm wrestle. Toby Flood, my bet for top points scorer, who is yet to miss a kick, will have an enormous influence on this game. The scrum will once again be massive but England will be determined not to concede the type of penalties they gave away in Paris last time. Thierry Dusatoir has produced some sublime defensive performances from flanker and Dimitri Yachvili, scourge of England, is back at scrum-half.

So can Marc Livremont's men stop Chris Ashton? Rugby isn't like football, you can't send a man out to track a star player, press up close and stop him playing his game. The whole team need to organise themselves to stifle his creativity. That won't be easy because Ashton will roam across the backline and if he crosses the white wash on Saturday he can celebrate however he wants. I just hope his dive his technically sounder than it has been.

The important thing for England fans when having a bet is to follow their head not their heart. So far, all my England tips have come in and, just like the team, I intend to keep my perfect record going this weekend. I believe England can beat France and I expect a final score around 24-18.

Back England at [2.52] to win by a margin of less than 12.5 points and take a big step towards a first championship for eight years.

*
To back Will Greenwood's Round Three treble click here.

To follow Will on Twitter click here and to visit his website click here.

Two out of two for England and so far so good for Will Greenwood's bets on Johnno's men. But Saturday's match against France poses a big test to their Grand Slam ambitions and their aim of becoming one of the...

Will's backing England at [2.46] to beat France by less than 12.5 points but what bets is he adding from Wales v Italy and Scotland v Ireland?...

Geoffrey Riddle selects the best bets as two of the most formidable sides in the competition go head to head at the Aviva Stadium this Sunday......

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Betfair Ascot Chase Betting: Theatre ready to take his place on the biggest stage

Ante-post / Harry Bowles / 17 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Riverside Theatre is fancied to prove too strong for Pride of Dulcote

Pride of Dulcote plainly remains with plenty of potential, but this will clearly demand more and, as more of a staying type, the drop back in trip is most unlikely to come as naturally to him as it will Riverside Theatre.

The National Hunt season has had more than a stop-start feel to it thus far, with all the abandonments of December rolling into January and then the unfortunate events at Newbury last weekend. Here's hoping that the rearranged meeting at the Berkshire track on Friday and Ascot's big card on Saturday signal the return of the show to the road.

The headline race is the twenty-one furlong Grade 1 Ascot Chase and the bulk of attention will be centred on Riverside Theatre and Pride of Dulcote representing the powerhouse stables of Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls respectively. Riverside Theatre has progressed plenty from his novice campaign in two starts at Kempton this season, winning a minor event in November before a fine second to stablemate Long Run in the rearranged King George last month. That looks the most convincing piece of recent form brought to the table here and he must have strong claims of gaining a first Grade 1 success with the shorter trip certainly no inconvenience.

Pride of Dulcote was a smart hurdler who suffered a splint problem after making a winning chasing debut in early-2009/10, but he came back to make it two from two over fences with a narrow defeat of Punchestowns at Newbury over Christmas. He plainly remains with plenty of potential, but this will clearly demand more and, as more of a staying type, the drop back in trip is most unlikely to come as naturally to him as it will Riverside Theatre.

After a brace of wins in the Peterborough Chase at Newbury and a Grade 3 at Cheltenham, Tartak has to come into the reckoning somewhere along the line, even if it's just for place purposes. He's responded well to the fitting of a tongue strap in getting back to winning ways and these are his conditions. Worthy of respect on that basis, though the suspicion is that he'll always prove vulnerable at the highest level.

Big Fella Thanks was a smart chaser for Paul Nicholls who was fourth in last season's Grand National (stamina seemingly just stretched) and will surely have that race as his target once again. Returned with good second in minor event at Carlisle before falling at the third in Hennessy. This race is sure to be used as a stepping stone to Aintree, so it remains to be seen if he's cherry ripe for the day.

With only Tataniano to look up to amongst last season's crop of novices, French Opera might be considered a leading player. There's just a suspicion that a tough campaign has left a mark of some kind after an uncharacteristically tame reappearance effort at Sandown last month. Clearly he can't be written off wholesale just yet, but it's certainly fair to say the yard appears to hold considerably stronger claims with Riverside Theatre.

Deep Purple won the Charlie Hall and Peterborough Chase last term and ran just as well when third in former race this season. Possibly amiss at Newbury next time and he's got a bit to prove now, something which is true to varying degrees of all of the remainder.

After serving notice that he can play a major role at the top table when runner-up in the King George, it's very difficult to overlook Riverside Theatre in this line-up, the substance to his form all the more appealing than the residual potential of Pride of Dulcote.

Recommendation

Back Riverside Theatre to win the Betfair Ascot Chase

The National Hunt season has had more than a stop-start feel to it thus far, with all the abandonments of December rolling into January and then the unfortunate events at Newbury last weekend. Here's hoping that the rearranged meeting at the Berkshire track on Friday and Ascot's big card on Saturday signal the return of the show to the road....

Haydock stages one of its flagship jumping days on Saturday, featuring three Grade 2 hurdles as well as the Grand National Trial, in which Silver By Nature bids to repeat last year's success......

The Cheltenham showpiece; jumps racing's Blue Riband; the Gold Cup: whatever you call it, the feature on the last day of the Cheltenham Festival remains the most prestigious race at the most prestigious jumps meeting in the world. With six weeks to go until the big day, Keith Melrose takes a look at the main contenders....

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