Showing posts with label Group. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Group. Show all posts
March 14, 2013
Follow The Money at Cheltenham: Bets for the Ryanair, World Hurdle and Byrne Group Plate
"First Lieutenant is yet to win this season, but has run some excellent races in defeat where he finished third in the Hennessy and was narrowly beaten in the Lexus Chase over Christmas at Leopardstown."
Back First Lieutenant @ 3.55/2 Cheltenham 14:40
It's back to the Cheltenham Festival for the Follow The Money team...
Our first selection is in the Ryanair Chase at 14:40 where First Lieutenant has been well supported from 3.8514/5 in to 3.55/2. This will be the third visit to the Festival for the Mouse Morris-trained runner and he has a decent record here, having won the Neptune Novice Hurdle in 2011 and finishing runner-up to Bobs Worth in last year's RSA Chase.
First Lieutenant is yet to win this season, but has run some excellent races in defeat where he finished third in the Hennessy and was narrowly beaten in the Lexus Chase over Christmas at Leopardstown. He has been given a break since that race unlike main market rival Cue Card, whose form suggests he is best fresh. With only 26 days since Cue Card's win at Ascot we have to oppose him. Davy Russell is back on board First Lieutenant, who looks to have an outstanding chance of giving Michael O'Leary his first winner in the race he sponsors.
Next we move to the World Hurdle at 15:20 where Smad Place has been heavily backed from 16.5n/a in to 10.09/1. Alan King's runner was third in this race last year (beaten nine lengths by Big Buck's) but his two efforts this year are not so impressive - he was well beaten by Tidal Bay at Wetherby and ran slightly better in the Long Walk Hurdle where he finished second. The ground was heavy on both occasions and he will certainly appreciate today's quicker surface. With doubts over Oscar Whisky's stamina and the ground perhaps being against Reve De Sivola, this year's contest has an open look to it and the market support suggests this six-year-old could spring a surprise.
The negative for today comes in the Byrne Group Plate at 16:00 and it is the David Pipe-trained runner Ballynagour who is weak in the market and has drifted out to 6.05/1 from 4.67/2. An impressive winner last month at Warwick on his initial start for the Pipe stable, he has some solid French form and it is possible he is still ahead of the handicapper. In a competitive race however, his odds look short and with the hefty raise in the weights punters are happy to take the favourite on today.
Recommended Bets
Back First Lieutenant @ 3.55/2 Cheltenham 14:40
Back Smad Place @ 10.09/1 Cheltenham 15:20
Lay Ballynagour @ 6.05/1 Cheltenham 16:00
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April 5, 2012
Golden Slipper Preview: Sama ready for Rosehill Group 1 challenge
News 
/ Gary Crispe / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Unbeaten filly Samaready
"However if she [Samaready] can return to her peak rating of 123 she clearly rates as the horse to beat
A crackerjack line up of youngsters will take their place in the $3.5 million Group 1 Golden Slipper Stakes (off 07:05 BST) at Rosehill on Saturday in a contest befitting the richest two-year-old race in the world writes Timeform's man 'Down Under', Gary Crispe...
On ratings it is hard to go past the unbeaten filly Samaready who already has a Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes victory to her credit at just her third racetrack appearance. A win for Samaready will see her become part a select group of five juveniles to have taken the Blue Diamond Stakes/Golden Slipper Stakes double in 41 years; last year's double winner Sepoy the first horse in over 20 years to do so, joining Courtza (1989), Bounding Away (1986), Manikato (1978) and John's Hero (1972).
Samaready, unbeaten in four race starts, debuted last December at Flemington down the straight 1000m with a soft win before being put away to mature for the Autumn. In a sign of just of just how much improvement she had made during her spell, Samaready resumed in the Group 3 Blue Diamond Prelude (1100m) in early February with an impressive display, winning untouched by over three lengths in very fast time.
That effort ensured she started a firm favourite in the Blue Diamond Stakes, a race she took in dominant style. Samaready in doing so recorded a Timeform rating of 123 to become the highest rated filly to win the feature in the last 25 years and just 1 lb below Sepoy who is the highest Timeform rated winner of the race in the same period.
Her astute trainer Mick Price knows just how difficult it is to have a juvenile peak twice in a campaign, which is why not many youngsters have been able to complete the Blue Diamond/Golden Slipper double, two group one races generally within a month of each other in different States and on different tracks, one clockwise and the other anti clockwise. So Price wisely let the filly have some easy time before embarking on a Sydney campaign that would lead to the Golden Slipper.
After a month's break, the Reisling Stakes was selected as her Sydney debut run and lead up to the Slipper. Opposed to a handy field including Gimcrack Stakes winner Hussousa, Samaready settled second last early before getting into the race approaching the 600m where rider Craig Newitt made a long run around the field. Samaready took a little time to balance up around Rosehill but once she put her mind on the proceedings, she quickly lengthened putting the race beyond doubt, idling to the line defeating Hussousa by two lengths.
As expected, Samaready rated 121, slightly below her Blue Diamond figure. However if she can return to her peak rating of 123 she clearly rates as the horse to beat, especially as she will receive an additional 2kgs from the males under the set weights of the race.
Her main danger Pierro also raced on the same day winning the Todman Stakes in a close finish over Epaulette rating to a new peak of 122 enabling some interesting direct and indirect form line comparisons between the pair to be established. At level weights, Pierro's race time was 0.05 seconds slower than Samaready and the filly has an additional 2kgs weight advantage.
At his start prior Pierro had beaten Hussousa in the Group 2 Silver Slipper Stakes by a length when conceding 2kgs to her which, when adjusted for level weights, also confirms there would be just over two lengths between Pierro and Hussousa. This almost confirms the same result from the Todman/Reisling times/weight comparison which gives Samaready at least 2kgs advantage over Pierro, all things being equal. Weight adjusted Timeform ratings analysis also leads to the same conclusion that Samaready has a clear edge over the colts.
That said Pierro, who will start from the inside barrier, much like Samaready has continued to improve from a limited number of race starts. If he improves again and Samaready goes backwards, then he could be the horse to beat. Pierro is undefeated in three runs but has been champion trainer Gai Waterhouse's main Slipper chance since his narrow debut win in the listed Breeders' Plate at Randwick last October.After a spell, he resumed with a strong win in the Silver Slipper then battled hard to hold out Black Opal Stakes winner Epaulette in the Todman Stakes.
Champion jockey Nash Rawiller who is searching for his first Slipper win, retains the mount which is a major asset in any feature race. Waterhouse on the other hand is chasing her fourth Slipper winner having already trained Sebring (2008), Dance Hero (2004) and Ha Ha (2001).
Away from Samaready and Pierro, the well drawn Black Opal Stakes winner Epaulette looms as a definite chance if the Peter Snowden-trained galloper runs to his narrow Todman Stakes defeat where he also rated 122.
A half brother to multiple top-level winner Helmet, Epaulette has raced just three times for two wins and a narrow defeat in the Todman, taking his Timeform rating from 106 to 122 in the process. Unlike in the Black Opal where he was ridden for speed, in the Todman Epaulette was ridden quietly and he finished the race off solidly, something which maybe an advantage on Saturday. After reaching the lead 200m form home, Pierro fought back solidly to just nose him out on the line and like that horse is capable of further slight improvement.
However Slipper history has not been kind to Black Opal Stakes winners. While several Black Opal Stakes winners have been placed in the Golden Slipper, Decision Time the last in 2010, just one horse has completed the double in 38 years - Catbird in 1999.
Fillies No Looking Back (114), Driefontein (115) and Snitzerland (114) can all stake their claims if the top fancies falter, especially as they are significantly advantaged by the 2kgs weight advantage over the males.
No Looking Back brings excellent form lines to the race. After winning on debut at Warwick Farm, she took on the Magic Millions 2YO Classic on the Gold Coast and after defeating stablemate Driefontein in a close finish, lost the race in the steward's room in controversial circumstances. She then went to Melbourne for the Blue Diamond Stakes but drew a wide barrier. Despite being forced to cover additional ground she loomed up to Samaready in the straight but was unable to match that filly's acceleration in the last 200m finishing a creditable second.
Since then No Looking Back has barrier trialled and been kept right up to the mark fitness wise. With the all-conquering Craig Williams to take the mount she has to be respected as the "forgotten" horse of the race.
The unbeaten filly Driefontein, winner of the Magic Millions 2YO Classic on protest from stablemate No Looking Back stays under notice as a value hope. Given a 35 day break after her Magic Millions success, she narrowly scored in the Widden Stakes over 1100m at Warwick Farm in mid February holding her Timeform 115 rating. Driefontein comes into the Slipper off a six week break but being a Waterhouse-trained galloper that should be of no concern to punters. The filly will be ready to race to her best.
Snitzerland could be another value runner now that trainer Gerald Ryan has elected to fit her with blinkers on Saturday. A convincing winner of the Inglis Premier Race at Mornington before thrashing the Breeders' Stakes field down the Flemington straight 1200m, returning to Sydney she was disappointing behind Samaready in the Reisling Stakes. Snitzerland can be expected to improve on her Reisling effort.
While winning a Golden Slipper is never easy, the ratings clearly point to the race being won by one of the top three leading fancies. I don't see barrier 11 as a disadvantage and if Samaready reproduces either of her last two Timeform ratings, at the weights it is hard to see her being beaten.
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The Prix Imprudence at Maisons-Laffitte on Thursday features a couple of live outsiders for the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 6.......
Former champion jockey and new Betfair columnist, Ryan Moore, will partner the Richard Hannon-trained Rockinante in Thursday's Group 3 Prix Jebel at Maisons-Laffitte......
Top French jockey Gerald Mosse couldn't hide his enthusiasm for the chances of Americain in Saturday's BMW Stakes (off 05:25 BST) at Rosehill after riding the seven-year-old entire in a special gallop at the track on Tuesday....
April 4, 2012
BMW Stakes: Americain can take Rosehill Group 1 reckons Mosse
News / Timeform / 03 April 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Gerald Mosse and Americain
"Mosse, who conceded that he hadn't seen the horse for a couple of months, expressed himself delighted with the way Americain looked..."
Top French jockey Gerald Mosse couldn't hide his enthusiasm for the chances of Americain in Saturday's BMW Stakes (off 05:25 BST) at Rosehill after riding the seven-year-old entire in a special gallop at the track on Tuesday.
2010 Melbourne Cup winner American took to the course well before dawn to do h his preparation for Saturday's $2.25million BMW Stakes in the hands of Mosse, with the rider having flown in from Hong Kong late Monday to put the Timeform 129-rated stayer through a light workout.
Mosse, who conceded that he hadn't seen the horse for a couple of months, expressed himself delighted with the way Americain looked, also stating that the horse's action felt "great".
Americain's gallop, in which he kept tightly to the running rail, was undertaken to help the horses get familiar with the track, something that Mosse believes will be a factor in helping his turn tables with Australian Cup conqueror Manighar at the weekend.
The horse his rider describes as a "pure gentleman" is currently trading as the [2.48] favourite for Saturday's 2400m race.
However, Americain won't be the only former Melbourne Cup hero amongst the 10-strong line-up as 2007 winner Efficient has also been declared. That said, rising nine and having only won once since that Flemington success, Efficient is understandably trading at [26.0].
Manighar ([4.2]) and Southern Speed ([9.0]) are also set to feature in the BMW Stakes, which joins the Golden Slipper as the two Group 1s on Rosehill's Saturday card.
Former champion jockey and new Betfair columnist, Ryan Moore, will partner the Richard Hannon-trained Rockinante in Thursday's Group 3 Prix Jebel at Maisons-Laffitte......
Big Buck's will attempt to create history when he chases his 17th consecutive victory in the £100,000 Grade One Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree on April 12......
Henry Cecil does not have the Breeders' Cup in the forefront of his mind as a way for Frankel to end his career.......
January 31, 2012
African Cup of Nations Diary: Group win for Gernot's Gabon?
African Cup Of Nations / Jonathan Wilson / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment Tournament co-hosts have won both games so far and could secure a stay at their favoured Libreville stadium throughout the knockout stages by avoiding defeat. Jonathan Wilson thinks they can do it
The tournament feels as though it's hit something of a lull. After all the excitement of the second round of games, when last-minute winners confirmed the progress of Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Tunisia, the final set of games has been about jockeying for quarter-final positions. Even the events of yesterday, when Sudan edged through to the last eight thanks to Angola's shambolic defending lacked the drama of last week.
So we know now that Zambia will play Sudan in the first semi-final, and that Ivory Coast will then take on Equatorial Guinea in Malabo, where the smaller stadium will surely offer less of an advantage than they would have enjoyed had they won their group and remained in Bata.
Gabon and Tunisia, who meet on Tuesday evening, have already secured their progress, but both know that the likely result of finishing second in the group is a game against Ghana. Only a Guinea victory against the Ghanaians could unseat the Black Stars from the top of the group and were that to happen there would be a serious possibility they would not qualify at all, for Mali will surely beat Botswana to leave three teams locked on six points.
Similarly, their coach, Gernot Rohr, sees an advantage in staying in Libreville.
"We would like to finish first in the group because when we finish first we can play in Libreville, in this wonderful stadium with this fantastic crowd," he said.
"And I hope we can be first because then we can stay in Gabon. If we are second it's possible that we'd play a semi-final in Equatorial Guinea. It will be a difficult game against Tunisia. They have two victories, too."
A draw would be enough for Gabon to top the group, but a win would also help to convince home fans who, weirdly, seem to think their team should be playing even better than it is. After the extraordinary late drama of the win over Morocco, when Gabon scored in the 77th and 79th minutes to take the lead, conceded in the 90th and then regained the lead in the 97th, the first question Rohr faced in the post-match press conference asked why his side hadn't won more easily.
"I don't feel any vengeance against me but the people are impatient," Rohr said, but he must be frustrated that having taken a team that was [30.0] at the beginning of the tournament to the quarter-finals, his work is not better appreciated.
"They didn't really understand we wanted to create a young team that would work together and be united. They are gaining more and more confidence because we have a good blend. There is a fresh new spirit, a cocktail that has produced a good competition for us so far."
Does that mean that he will play a full-strength team? Are Tunisia, whose policy of defending deep and hitting on the break has been successful so far but has required a certain amount of fortune, more likely to rest players? Probably, but both sides are unlikely to risk players on a yellow card and thus at risk of suspension.
So what of the other Tuesday game, between Morocco and Niger, two sides who are already out? The suspicion is that Morocco, who thought they had a genuine chance of winning the tournament, will give squad players a chance, while Niger, for whom even a point in the tournament would be success, may pick something more closely resembling a first choice side.
Recommended Bet
Morocco look short and laying them at [1.61] may be an option, but in an uncertain world, I like the look of [2.1] on over-2.5 goals in that game. A Moroccan backlash could obliterate Niger, while Niger are wobbly at the back and showed against Tunisia that they have the firepower to upset ostensibly better sides.
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Group C's top two are already confirmed in the last eight, but Tobias Gourlay believes Gabon have more to lose from this match than Tunisia...
Tobias Gourlay speculates that Group C will finish with Niger not losing a finals match for the first time in history...
James Eastham says motivation will be a major factor as the tournament favourites play their third and final Group B game....
September 4, 2011
Weekend Preview Podcast: Group 1 action at Haydock and Leopardstown
Timeform Radio Preview Podcast / Timeform / 03 September 2011 / Leave a Comment 
/ Timeform / 03 September 2011 / Leave a Comment Roger Varian: Joins us to discuss his runners this weekend
The Timeform Radio team look ahead to this weekend's best racing in Britain and Ireland...
The guests on this week's show include trainers Roger Varian and William Muir, while Timeform's Flat Editor Jamie Lynch offers his views on the weekend's acton at Haydock.
It's also a big day at Leopardstown, and we are joined by Irish expert Donn McClean as well as Timeform's Billy Nash to discuss the Group 1 action on the other side of the Irish Sea.
Click HERE to listen to the weekend preview podcast.
This week's Timeform radio preview podcast looks at the Betfair Celebration Mile at Goodwood and much, much more....
Paul Jacobs hosts the Timeform Radio weekend preview podcast, featuring MIchael Bell, Mick Channon and Jim Goldie on their Ebor runners and much, much more......
David Cleary heads to the Midlands to follow the Friday action over ther jumps......
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