The Irish Challenge at Cheltenham: Timeform's view

"... Faugheen has yet to be extended and tanked along when landing a Grade 3 over three miles at Limerick last time."

Timeform's Irish Handicapper Martin Rigg looks at the Irish challenge in each of the Festival's Grade 1s...

Willie Mullins is currently trading at under 1.51/2 to be the top trainer at the Festival and has a couple of strong contenders for the opening Supreme Novices' Hurdle in Vautour and Wicklow Brave. Ruby Walsh is reportedly leaning towards the former, who maintained his unbeaten record for the yard when making all to beat dual Grade 1 winner The Tullow Tank in the Deloitte Novices' Hurdle at Leopardstown last time, but Wicklow Brave is also on a roll, and the form of his impressive listed win at Punchestown is already working out well with the third that day a Grade 2 winner since. With very little between the pair on form, the ground could be the factor which separates them on the day, with Wicklow Brave looking an out-and-out two miler who will appreciate an emphasis on speed, while Vautour appeals as the sort to see it out better if it develops into a stamina test.

Champagne Fever goes for a third successive Festival victory when he lines up for the second race on Tuesday, the Arkle. His course record entitles him to plenty of respect, but Trifolium also has previous at Cheltenham (third in the 2012 Supreme) and boasts the strongest chasing form among the likely runners after his comprehensive win in the Irish Arkle last time.

Next up is Hurricane Fly's bid for his third Champion Hurdle victory and he looks the clear pick of the Irish challengers after twice inflicting defeat on Our Conor and Jezki at Leopardstown in recent weeks. Our Conor is priced up as if expected to make more of a race of it, but Hurricane Fly was going away from him at the finish last time and the proximity of the veteran Captain Cee Bee in third that day suggests the bare form may not be all that strong in any case. 

Faugheen looks likely to spearhead the Irish Challenge in the Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle, which kicks off day two. Unbeaten in a bumper and three hurdle races, Faugheen has yet to be extended and tanked along when landing a Grade 3 over three miles at Limerick last time. The drop back to 21 furlongs won't inconvenience and he may well show himself to be the most talented Mullins-trained novice in action during the week. 

The same connections' Ballycasey took a tumble in a schooling session after racing at Leopardstown last weekend, but clung onto favouritism for the RSA Chase, and does looks to have good claims if he can put in a clear round when it really matters, having beaten Drinmore winner Don Cossack by four lengths in the Dr P. J. Moriarty last time, with Galway Plate winner Carlingford Lough appearing held when unseating at the last.

With Sizing Europe seemingly not the force of old, and Arvika Ligeonniere's Cheltenham record less than inspiring, it could be that the Irish-trained runners will be playing for places only behind Sire de Grugy in the Champion Chase, but don't rule out a big run from last year's Arkle runner-up Baily Green, who always jumps well and will be suited if conditions are drying out by this stage. 

It's true that Willie Mullins runners have often been sent off at unfeasibly short odds in the Champion Bumper, but he has saddled the last two winners of the race and genuinely looks to have excellent claims of completing the hat-trick, with Black Hercules and Shaneshill vying for favouritism and unbeaten in a brace of bumpers apiece, while Killultagh Vic is another Mullins runner to consider after his wide-margin defeat of last year's Champion Bumper third Golantilla at Naas last month.

A big run in the Arkle by Trifolium would be a positive pointer towards the chance of Felix Yonger in the JLT Novices' Chase, which opens proceedings on Thursday. Felix Yonger went down by nine lengths in the Irish Arkle, but beat Trifolium easily on less testing ground earlier in the campaign and ought to be hard to beat if he can raise his game back away from the mud. 

Benefficient has been prominent in the market for the Ryanair Chase ever since his narrow defeat of Hidden Cyclone in the Dial-A-Bet Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas and beat likely Ryanair favourite Dynaste at the Festival last year, but there is little doubt that David Pipe's runner has achieved the more of the pair since. Last season's Ryanair runner-up First Lieutenant hasn't been out of the first two in three successive appearances at the Festival but has plenty to prove after some below-par performances domestically this term.

The unbeaten Annie Power is the big Irish hope in the World Hurdle, but she hasn't gone beyond two and a half miles before and if Big Buck's turns up at anything like his best she'll need to progress again to overcome him.

The closing day opens with the Triumph Hurdle, in which Guitar Pete bids to provide Our Conor's trainer Dessie Hughes with a second successive win in the race. However, as likeable a type as Guitar Pete is, there is no getting away from the fact that he was put in his place by Royal Irish Hussar when sent over to Cheltenham in November. 

Last year's bumper winner Briar Hill hasn't impressed every observer in extending his unbeaten record over hurdles this season, but there is a strong possibility that he'll improve considerably for the step up to three miles in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle and it is likely to take a very good novice to beat him. 

For all the strength of the Irish party through the week, the Grade 1 in which Ireland holds its weakest claims is arguably the biggest race of all, the Gold Cup. Irish hopes rest largely on Last Instalment, who put in an exhibition round of jumping in winning the Irish Hennessy at Leopardstown, but that was a race he was able to dominate from the front and such a scenario in the Gold Cup is very hard to imagine. 

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Golden Slipper Preview: Sama ready for Rosehill Group 1 challenge

News / Gary Crispe / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Unbeaten filly Samaready

"However if she [Samaready] can return to her peak rating of 123 she clearly rates as the horse to beat

A crackerjack line up of youngsters will take their place in the $3.5 million Group 1 Golden Slipper Stakes (off 07:05 BST) at Rosehill on Saturday in a contest befitting the richest two-year-old race in the world writes Timeform's man 'Down Under', Gary Crispe...

On ratings it is hard to go past the unbeaten filly Samaready who already has a Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes victory to her credit at just her third racetrack appearance. A win for Samaready will see her become part a select group of five juveniles to have taken the Blue Diamond Stakes/Golden Slipper Stakes double in 41 years; last year's double winner Sepoy the first horse in over 20 years to do so, joining Courtza (1989), Bounding Away (1986), Manikato (1978) and John's Hero (1972).

Samaready, unbeaten in four race starts, debuted last December at Flemington down the straight 1000m with a soft win before being put away to mature for the Autumn. In a sign of just of just how much improvement she had made during her spell, Samaready resumed in the Group 3 Blue Diamond Prelude (1100m) in early February with an impressive display, winning untouched by over three lengths in very fast time.

That effort ensured she started a firm favourite in the Blue Diamond Stakes, a race she took in dominant style. Samaready in doing so recorded a Timeform rating of 123 to become the highest rated filly to win the feature in the last 25 years and just 1 lb below Sepoy who is the highest Timeform rated winner of the race in the same period.

Her astute trainer Mick Price knows just how difficult it is to have a juvenile peak twice in a campaign, which is why not many youngsters have been able to complete the Blue Diamond/Golden Slipper double, two group one races generally within a month of each other in different States and on different tracks, one clockwise and the other anti clockwise. So Price wisely let the filly have some easy time before embarking on a Sydney campaign that would lead to the Golden Slipper.

After a month's break, the Reisling Stakes was selected as her Sydney debut run and lead up to the Slipper. Opposed to a handy field including Gimcrack Stakes winner Hussousa, Samaready settled second last early before getting into the race approaching the 600m where rider Craig Newitt made a long run around the field. Samaready took a little time to balance up around Rosehill but once she put her mind on the proceedings, she quickly lengthened putting the race beyond doubt, idling to the line defeating Hussousa by two lengths.

As expected, Samaready rated 121, slightly below her Blue Diamond figure. However if she can return to her peak rating of 123 she clearly rates as the horse to beat, especially as she will receive an additional 2kgs from the males under the set weights of the race.

Her main danger Pierro also raced on the same day winning the Todman Stakes in a close finish over Epaulette rating to a new peak of 122 enabling some interesting direct and indirect form line comparisons between the pair to be established. At level weights, Pierro's race time was 0.05 seconds slower than Samaready and the filly has an additional 2kgs weight advantage.

At his start prior Pierro had beaten Hussousa in the Group 2 Silver Slipper Stakes by a length when conceding 2kgs to her which, when adjusted for level weights, also confirms there would be just over two lengths between Pierro and Hussousa. This almost confirms the same result from the Todman/Reisling times/weight comparison which gives Samaready at least 2kgs advantage over Pierro, all things being equal. Weight adjusted Timeform ratings analysis also leads to the same conclusion that Samaready has a clear edge over the colts.

That said Pierro, who will start from the inside barrier, much like Samaready has continued to improve from a limited number of race starts. If he improves again and Samaready goes backwards, then he could be the horse to beat. Pierro is undefeated in three runs but has been champion trainer Gai Waterhouse's main Slipper chance since his narrow debut win in the listed Breeders' Plate at Randwick last October.After a spell, he resumed with a strong win in the Silver Slipper then battled hard to hold out Black Opal Stakes winner Epaulette in the Todman Stakes.

Champion jockey Nash Rawiller who is searching for his first Slipper win, retains the mount which is a major asset in any feature race. Waterhouse on the other hand is chasing her fourth Slipper winner having already trained Sebring (2008), Dance Hero (2004) and Ha Ha (2001).

Away from Samaready and Pierro, the well drawn Black Opal Stakes winner Epaulette looms as a definite chance if the Peter Snowden-trained galloper runs to his narrow Todman Stakes defeat where he also rated 122.

A half brother to multiple top-level winner Helmet, Epaulette has raced just three times for two wins and a narrow defeat in the Todman, taking his Timeform rating from 106 to 122 in the process. Unlike in the Black Opal where he was ridden for speed, in the Todman Epaulette was ridden quietly and he finished the race off solidly, something which maybe an advantage on Saturday. After reaching the lead 200m form home, Pierro fought back solidly to just nose him out on the line and like that horse is capable of further slight improvement.

However Slipper history has not been kind to Black Opal Stakes winners. While several Black Opal Stakes winners have been placed in the Golden Slipper, Decision Time the last in 2010, just one horse has completed the double in 38 years - Catbird in 1999.
Fillies No Looking Back (114), Driefontein (115) and Snitzerland (114) can all stake their claims if the top fancies falter, especially as they are significantly advantaged by the 2kgs weight advantage over the males.

No Looking Back brings excellent form lines to the race. After winning on debut at Warwick Farm, she took on the Magic Millions 2YO Classic on the Gold Coast and after defeating stablemate Driefontein in a close finish, lost the race in the steward's room in controversial circumstances. She then went to Melbourne for the Blue Diamond Stakes but drew a wide barrier. Despite being forced to cover additional ground she loomed up to Samaready in the straight but was unable to match that filly's acceleration in the last 200m finishing a creditable second.

Since then No Looking Back has barrier trialled and been kept right up to the mark fitness wise. With the all-conquering Craig Williams to take the mount she has to be respected as the "forgotten" horse of the race.

The unbeaten filly Driefontein, winner of the Magic Millions 2YO Classic on protest from stablemate No Looking Back stays under notice as a value hope. Given a 35 day break after her Magic Millions success, she narrowly scored in the Widden Stakes over 1100m at Warwick Farm in mid February holding her Timeform 115 rating. Driefontein comes into the Slipper off a six week break but being a Waterhouse-trained galloper that should be of no concern to punters. The filly will be ready to race to her best.

Snitzerland could be another value runner now that trainer Gerald Ryan has elected to fit her with blinkers on Saturday. A convincing winner of the Inglis Premier Race at Mornington before thrashing the Breeders' Stakes field down the Flemington straight 1200m, returning to Sydney she was disappointing behind Samaready in the Reisling Stakes. Snitzerland can be expected to improve on her Reisling effort.

While winning a Golden Slipper is never easy, the ratings clearly point to the race being won by one of the top three leading fancies. I don't see barrier 11 as a disadvantage and if Samaready reproduces either of her last two Timeform ratings, at the weights it is hard to see her being beaten.

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The Prix Imprudence at Maisons-Laffitte on Thursday features a couple of live outsiders for the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 6.......

Former champion jockey and new Betfair columnist, Ryan Moore, will partner the Richard Hannon-trained Rockinante in Thursday's Group 3 Prix Jebel at Maisons-Laffitte......

Top French jockey Gerald Mosse couldn't hide his enthusiasm for the chances of Americain in Saturday's BMW Stakes (off 05:25 BST) at Rosehill after riding the seven-year-old entire in a special gallop at the track on Tuesday....

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Arkle Chase: Sprinter Sacre set for challenge

News / Timeform / 12 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Sprinter Sacre is favourite for the Arkle Chase

"He's looked like a horse we hope might be a bit special."

Nicky Henderson is hoping Sprinter Sacre can succeed where stablemate Finian's Rainbow failed in Tuesday's Arkle Chase at Cheltenham...

Sprinter Sacre is set to face just five rivals in the two-mile Arkle Chase for novices, and arrives on the back of three ultra-impressive wins over fences.

The six-year-old was an easy scorer on his debut at Doncaster in December before demolishing former top-class hurdler Peddlers Cross at Kempton over Christmas, although the runner-up was found to have problems afterwards.

A six-length win in record time in Newbury's Betfair Super Saturday Chase last month sealed his reputation as red-hot Arkle favourite.

However, Henderson is concerned that his keen style of racing could work against him, as it did with Finian's Rainbow who could finish only second in the Arkle in 2011.

"He's looked like a horse we hope might be a bit special. He hasn't beaten anything, but you have to look at his times. He beat the course record at Newbury and he was just beating the clock all on his own," said Henderson.

"He's a classy, good-looking horse and I think he knows it.

"The one worry is that Finian's Rainbow tried to do the same thing last year (go off quickly) and he got mugged. But Sprinter Sacre is a two-miler through and through."

Sprinter Sacre himself was beaten at last year's Festival when third to Al Ferof in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, but the Seven Barrows handler expects him to fare better up the famous Cheltenham hill this time.

"I'm not quite sure why he didn't get up the hill last year, but I think he will (this time)," Henderson added.

Barry Geraghty again takes the mount, and makes no secret of the regard in which he holds him.

He said: "He seems to have it all, he has pace, and he jumps really well. He has so much scope, he ticks every box.

"I have no doubts (about the hill), he ran keen last year and was probably in front earlier than ideal.

"He may get to the front early this year as well, we'll have to wait and see, but with age on his side and the way he jumps I don't think the hill will be an issue.

"It's a very hot race, there's no doubt about that, but this fellow is the most exciting horse I've ridden since Moscow Flyer. He's hard to describe he's so good."
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Timeform TV Focus callers enjoyed over £2500 profit (to £20 level stakes at Betfair SP) in our first year. Call TV Focus for tips on all Cheltenham CH4 races.

Find out what Nicky Henderson, Jessie Harrington and Charlie Longsdon had to say about their runners in Tuesday's Cheltenham curtain-raiser, the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.......

Connections of Binocular are expecting a big run from the 2010 winner, who was unable to defend his crown 12 months ago......

Timeform look back at the highlights from the weekend, which included the Imperial Cup at Sandown and Super Saturday at Meydan......

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Premier League Betting: Tevez can boost City title challenge

Premier League / Hannah Duncan / 22 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Tevez on that fateful night in Munich

"City need a boost to see them through to the end of the campaign – a different option in front of goal - and Carlos Tevez could well be that man."

Carlos Tevez behaved badly in the autumn and he has bridges to build with his manager, team-mates and fans, says Hannah Duncan. However, if the Argentine helps Manchester City win the Premier League then he might be forgiven...

In a month that's seen Mick McCarthy apologise for Wolves' 5-1 drubbing to local rivals West Brom (and promptly get the boot) and big figures at Liverpool frantically offering apologies following Luis Saurez's refusal to shake Patrice Evra's hand, football now has its latest sorry tale.

Trouble seems to have followed Manchester City forward Carlos Tevez around like a bad smell in recent years, with controversial comments and prima donna strops. But his unwillingness to warm-up against Bayern Munich back in September was the final straw for Tevez in restaurant-deprived Manchester - or so it seemed.

After a self-imposed five-month sabbatical, Tevez has finally issued an apology to manager Roberto Mancini and is back in training with the Premier League leaders. But will his return be a timely one in City's bid for the title or will more trouble be on the horizon for the Argentinean?

Despite untimely exits from the Champions League, FA Cup and Carling Cup, Manchester City are in a great position to put their name on some silverware this season. Mancini's side are [1.67] favourites to win the Premier League and [4.2] favourites to clinch the Europa League title.

But their formidable form has dropped somewhat since Christmas, with their free-flowing attack subdued by West Brom, Sunderland and Everton. They are still winning matches but nowhere near as convincingly as earlier in the season. Forwards Mario Balotelli, Sergio Aguero and Edin Dzeko have scored just five goals between them in the league since Christmas, netting one, two and two respectively - with two of those coming from the penalty spot.

City need a boost to see them through to the end of the campaign - a different option in front of goal - and Carlos Tevez could well be that man. He's a prolific goalscorer and a creator and, whatever has gone on in the past, and whatever might go on in the future, Mancini needs to get the best out of Tevez between now and the end of the season.

Despite not netting in the handful of games he's played this campaign, the Argentine scored 24 goals in 44 appearances last season, including six braces and a hat-trick - certainly not a bad return. If he can recapture that form when he's back to full fitness, Manchester United's title challenge could be dead in the water.

Betting on Tevez to still be at City next season may have looked a ridiculous bet a few months ago but, depending on how his return to the Etihad Stadium goes, it might not be a bad shout now. His success at City relies heavily on the bridges he can build, not only with his manager, but with team-mates and fans too.

If City are to keep a lacklustre but always dangerous Manchester United at bay in both the Premier League and Europa League, bygones may have to be bygones where Carlos Tevez is concerned.

There are opportunities to make money on Betfair over the next few months betting on whether or not the likes of Robin van Persie and Carlos Tevez change clubs this summer......

Steve Bruce's chances of landing the Wolves job have seemingly been enhanced by speculation that Alan Curbishley is no longer interested......

Lifelong Man City fan Lee Dixon believes most City players would be prepared to forgive Carlos Tevez if the Argentinian returned to the team in goalscoring form......

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Timeform Blueprint Series: The World Mile Challenge

Timeform Debate / Timeform / 22 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Frankel book his place against Black Caviar in the final of the Timeform Blueprint Series?

Following on from the Sprint, won by Black Caviar, the second race in the Timeform Blueprint Series is a 1600m World Mile Challenge, featuring the phenomenal Frankel. If you want to find out how he fared against the other top milers from around the world, read on....

The aim of the Timeform Blueprints is to bring together a large body of known information about a selection of horses in order to run a simulation of what might happen if those horses met under the circumstances prescribed.

This information includes: run styles; sectional times; suitability to distance and going; consistency; potential; and, crucially, the recorded Timeform rating of the protagonists in real-life races anywhere in the world.

The result is a visualisation of how a race involving those horses might unfold, from pre-race betting show - via in-race positions, sectionals and prices - to the result itself.

The Timeform Blueprint Series, held at the 'neutral' venue of Meydan, started with the Sprint Challenge, which is still available for viewing at timeform.com, but the focus now moves on to the second race over 1600m, in which the mighty Frankel goes up against the best active milers from all corners of the globe.

To discover how he got on facing new challengers (full field listed below), then CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE ACTION UNFOLD!

Dealing with an irritating cough can be a tricky business, so jumps handicapper Phil Turner has plenty of sympathy for champion trainer Paul Nicholls at present....

Timeform look back at a weekend featuring a winning return for Riverside Theatre in the Betfair Ascot Chase, a double for Donald McCain on the Ascot card and a battling victory for Giles Cross in Haydock's Grand National Trial......

Timeform preview an excellent weekend of racing, featuring action from Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton on Saturday, and Navan on Sunday......

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Lightning Stakes Preview: New challenge awaits Black Caviar

News / Timeform / 16 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Black Caviar fans will be out in force

"A win in the Lightning Stakes will clinch the Australian record of consecutive victories for Black Caviar in her own right..."

Last week the world's highest Timeform rated sprinter Black Caviar (135+) put to rest any doubts about her handling 1400m with an emphatic victory in the G1 C F Orr Stakes at Caulfield however on Saturday she faces a new challenge.

In the space of seven days she is dropping back 400m in distance from the Orr Stakes to tackle the G1 Lightning Stakes (off 05:10 GMT) down the straight 1000m at Flemington, a race she won fresh up last year.

The afterthought by trainer Peter Moody and connections to back Black Caviar up a week later in the G 1 Lightning Stakes rather than have a Saturday morning track gallop ahead of the G1 Futurity Stakes again over 1400m next Saturday has taken rival trainers by surprise.

Black Caviar maintained her unbeaten run in the Orr Stakes last Saturday with an effortless display over G1 Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed and multiple G 1 winner and Australian Cup placed Playing God recording her 18th victory and equalling the great Ajax's winning sequence achieved back in the late 1930's, but today she faces a totally different assignment.

Opposed to her are old "sparring partner" Hay List, up and coming three-year-old sprinter Foxwedge who pushed Sepoy to a head down the Flemington straight in the Spring, G1 Goodwood Handicap winner Lone Rock as well as other accomplished specialist sprinters all aimed at producing their best first up over the Flemington 1000m.

The task of dropping back 400m in the space of a week and tackling such a fine group of speedsters raises concerns as to whether she will have sufficient speed in her legs especially after being trained specifically for two 1400m races, which was to be her original race programme.

Call the decision arrogant if you dare but obviously Moody and the connections are clearly eager to bag the 20 consecutive wins she needs to surpass the great Zenyatta whose unbeaten run was abruptly terminated when unluckily defeated by Blame at her 20th start in the 2011 Breeders' Cup Classic.

A win in the Lightning Stakes will clinch the Australian record of consecutive victories for Black Caviar in her own right and set a record that will stand for many a year, however she will not have history on her side.

The G1 Lightning Stakes was first run in 1955 and the most relevant past occurrence to what lies ahead for Black Caviar was the attempt by the smart three-year-old sprinter Star Of Heaven trained by Angus Armanasco and owned by Stanley Wootton.

In 1965 Star Of Heaven was beaten half a head in the Orr Stakes over 1400m behind Future before dropping back to the 1000m of the Lightning Stakes where he was again beaten a half head this time by in form classy sprinter Marmion. However the gap between the races was 14 days not seven as it is today.

To further demonstrate the task that lies ahead for Black Caviar, a search of Australian race results for the last 10 years reveals that no horse at Listed or group level in Australia has attempted such a drop back in distance within seven days.

Further on Australian metropolitan racetracks in non black type races, just one horse from 25 that attempted it has been successful and that was back in 2001.

On country and provincial racetracks the record is 33 winners from 350 horses to have attempted the feat.

It is an infinitely easier task for horses to go from the Lightning Stakes to the 1400m of the Futurity Stakes a fortnight later with Todman (1960), Schillaci (1993) and Testa Rossa (2000) executing that double.

While the ease of her Orr Stakes win last start surprised many, she is likely to be asked to do more on Saturday. Not only does the drop back in distance at the elite level within a week pose a new challenge for the wonder mare but the opposition she faces have all been set for the 1000m scamper, the most notable being classy sprinter Hay List.

Hay List (Timeform rated 128) is the only horse in Australia to have seriously tested Black Caviar at G1 level. In four previous match ups he has been runner up three times but this afternoon he is perfectly placed to make Black Caviar raise a sweat.

The last time the pair met was in the BTC Cup (1200m) at Doomben in May of 2011 where he finished two lengths behind Black Caviar after getting what appeared to be a winning break at the 300m mark, only to succumb to her superior acceleration over the concluding stages. Black Caviar and Hay List also met in last year's Lightning Stakes with over three lengths separating the pair on that occasion.

In any other era of Australian racing, Hay List would be acclaimed as one of the best sprinters produced. With a Timeform rating of 128 he compares favourably with past classy sprinters such as Choisir, Scenic Blast, Miss Andretti, Schillaci, Placid Ark and Starspangledbanner to name a few, but Black Caviar has dominated him in the past.

However that may change slightly at Flemington. Hay List, who wear blinkers for the first time, has not raced since their last meeting, the hulking sprinter given plenty of rest to overcome niggling injuries that plagued him during his last campaign. Trainer John McNair is very confident racegoers will see a different Hay List, injury free and rearing to go after sparkling track work and an effortless barrier trial win at Randwick last month.

The signs are there he will make a race of it today and the finish could get interesting if some of the speed is taken from Black Caviar's legs after being trained for 1400m assignments.

The chances against her don't stop with Hay List. Emerging three-year-old sprinting talent Foxwedge (Timeform rated 120p) is a horse expected to make his mark this preparation with connections already pencilling in Royal Ascot if all goes to plan.

To be ridden by Nash Rawiller, Foxwedge has raced just nine times for four wins but has continued to develop and mature during his short racing career to date.

This afternoon racegoers will see a vastly different colt to the one that almost caused the boilover of the Spring by nearly defeating Sepoy in the G1 Coolmore Stakes down the Flemington straight 1200m.

That was his highest rating performance to date but I am expecting him to build significantly on that figure this campaign. A strong point in his favour today is the excellent record three-year-olds have in the Lightning Stakes.

Black Caviar's surprise defence of her Lightning Stakes crown is going to be a contest to saviour. Not that on ratings she can be beaten but the dynamics of this race present a different challenge for her but one that all devoted racegoers are expecting her to handle in her usual dominant fashion.

No Recommendation: Black Caviar will be at prohibitive odds.
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Sprinter Sacre steps out of novice company for the first time in the rescheduled Betfair Super Saturday Chase at Newbury on Friday......

Jessica Harrington has decided against running Steps To Freedom at Dundalk on Friday and he will now head straight to next month's Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham......

Leading RSA Chase fancy Last Instalment has been ruled out of the Cheltenham Festival with a leg injury......

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Nordea Masters Betting: Andersson can Hed home challenge

Golf Bets / Mike Norman / 19 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Fredrik Andersson Hed fired a final round 62 at the Scottish Open recently

"Felipe Aguilar clearly finds it hard to win then but from those cuts made he has recorded some very creditable finishes, including a third, a sixth, a 13th, a 14th and a 20th - all those finishes coming within the last four months suggesting his game is in decent order."

Having tipped Darren Clarke a week too early Mike Norman is hoping something will fall right at this week's European Tour event, and he believes a Swedish native can win on home soil for the second year running.

Throughout this season Mike will give one selection in each of the Winner, Top Five Finish and Top Ten Finish markets every week a European Tour event is being played.

What an extraordinary four days of golf we had at Royal St George's last week. It was a remarkable performance from Darren Clarke and I couldn't have been more delighted at his success, a success that was - as predicted - a sixth consecutive victory for a European Tour member at a Major championship.

Talking about predictions I received some criticism last week; an anonymous commenter saying that the reason this column isn't in profit is because I was selecting a player (Lee Westwood) to win the Open Championship who had a record of 0 from 53 in Majors. It's perhaps worth mentioning then that Clarke, by amazing coincidence, also had a record of 0 from 53 in Majors prior to last week's event.

The reason this column isn't in profit this season is not because I'm backing players like Westwood, it's because things haven't quite fallen right so far and - in my opinion only - I've endured a lot of misfortune.

Take the newly crowned Open champion for example. Two weeks ago I backed him at [120.0] to win the Scottish Open and at [24.0] for a Top 5 Finish. In that preview (my picture comment says it all really) I said this about DC; "Even more so than (Paul) Lawrie perhaps, Clarke has all the shots to play links courses well." Clarke was available to back at [360.0] prior to the Open Championship starting, and I foolishly didn't have a single penny on! But that's golf, and the show must move on.

And that show arrives at the Nordea Masters this week, to be staged for the second consecutive year at the Bro Hof Slott Golf Club in Stockholm. Dustin Johnson - second at the Open last week and [8.8] favourite to win here - and Bubba Watson ([20.0]) are amongst the star attractions, but it's fingers crossed for me that an in-form Swede can provide back-to-back winners for the home nation following Richard S Johnson's victory here last year.

Winner

A short, receptive Castle Stuart golf course was always going to be at the mercy of professional golfers a fortnight ago but it wasn't until Sunday afternoon that the best round of the week was recorded, a magnificent 62 by Fredrik Andersson Hed.

The tall Swede has been a bit hit and miss so far this season but that runner-up slot at the Scottish Open definitely hinted at a return to form. He took that form into the Open last week, firing a first round 68 before dropping away over the weekend, but almost everyone can be excused for being blown away at Sandwich. Andersson Hed finished 11th at this venue last year so as well as showing excellent recent form, he has performed well here too. And there's always that extra incentive for golfers to win in their own country - something that happens quite regularly. At [40.0] to back, I'm expecting last season's Italian Open winner to go close this week.

Top Five Finish

Felipe Aguilar has made 10 cuts on the European Tour this season, yet he's only managed to break 70 in the final round on two occasions. The Chilean clearly finds it hard to win then but from those cuts made he has recorded some very creditable finishes, including a third, a sixth, a 13th, a 14th and a 20th - all those finishes coming within the last four months suggesting his game is in decent order. Aguilar can be backed at [16.0] to record a Top Five Finish this week and that looks worth an interest given that this week's venue apparently holds no fears (he says on his website that he made 11 birdies during one round at a charity event here last year).

Top Ten Finish

Christian Nilsson recorded two top-10 finishes within the space of a few weeks earlier this season and has shown glimpses of form recently to suggest he can record another Top Ten Finish this week at odds of around [12.0]. Nilsson finished 10 shots under par at the 54-hole Scottish Open a fortnight ago and recorded three excellent rounds at the Open de France (a third round 78 put him out of contention) the previous week. He finished 12th in this tournament in 2009 and definitely has the ability to improve on that finish in, what has to be said, a relatively weak field.

Recommended Bets

Back Fredrik Andersson Hed at [40.0] in Winner market
Back Felipe Aguilar at [16.0] in Top Five Finish market
Back Christian Nilsson at [12.0] in Top Ten Finish market

Total pts bet this season (one pt bet per selection): 72
Total pts returned: 46.15
2011 European Tour season Profit/Loss: -25.85

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Aviva Premiership Final Betting: Sarries will rise to Leicester challenge

Aviva Premiership / Ralph Ellis / 24 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Owen Farrell's kicking has proved very productive for Sarries this season

"If there's one team that rises to the challenge of giving total commitment for 80 minutes - as they showed against Gloucester last week -it is the South African-influenced Sarries."

Ralph Ellis believes that Mark McCall will use a perceived injustice to fire his men up for Saturday's big match. And if they get the bit between their teeth, they could prove unstoppable...

When it comes to galvanising a team for a big game, nothing beats a sense of injustice. Get your players to think the press, the fans, the referees and officials are all against them, build up the anger a bit more. Then watch them go.

This time last year Saracens were smarting when director of rugby Brendan Venter was banned from the Premiership's Grand Final. He'd got into a row with some Leicester fans for daring to stand up in front of them to watch the game. And the full might of the RFU came crashing down on him.

Wind the clock on and now it is Sarries' opponents Leicester who have been in trouble. Their rugby director Richard Cockerill was picked up during the semi-final win over Northampton on a local radio station microphone abusing World Cup referee Wayne Barnes - coincidentally the man who will be in charge of Sunday's Twickenham clash. "He's meant to be a Test referee in the biggest match of the season. It's not bloody good enough," Cockerill shouted. And just for good measure his head coach Matt O'Connor was also reported to have angrily punched - and broken - a Perspex shield around the dugout.

Yet guess what? While South African Venter felt the full might of the disciplinary process it seems that former-England hooker Cockerill, and his sidekick, have been let off. The RFU's elite referee development manager Brian Campsall told a tribunal he was "too busy writing in my notebook to take note of anything that was being said by the coaches."

Venter may have moved on from Vicarage Road, but you can be sure there will be some men with long memories about last season's perceived injustice. They lost by just six points to Leicester, 33-27, and must have felt that Venter's presence could have inspired the converted try that would have turned defeat to victory. New team boss Mark McCall may lack the abrasive edge of his predecessor, but that won't stop him having a grumble in the dressing room that it's been one law for one club and one for another. They will also be asking if one of their players would have got off as lightly as Manu Tuilagi for that outrageous assault on Chris Ashton.

McCall's men were already a value price at [2.74] to win at Twickenham. They hit a sensational run of form in the second half of the season, putting together 11 back to back wins from the start of January, a run which crucially included beating Leicester at Welford Road. Owen Farrell's goal-kicking under pressure has come through time after time, and if there's one team that rises to the challenge of giving total commitment for 80 minutes - as they showed against Gloucester last week -it is the South African-influenced Sarries.

Give them a bit more reason to be riled, as the RFU's blazers have done, and Cockerill might just find he's got something more to have a moan about.

Five things you might not know about Wayne Barnes

1. Born April 1979 in Gloucestershire, he started playing mini-rugby for Bream RFC then turned into a promising second row for Whitecross School.

2. He was 15 when he started refereeing - taking charge of Bream Thirds v Berry Hill Wappers - for something to do while he was injured. He went on playing for the University 1st XV after moving to East Anglia to study law, but by then was refereeing seriously on Saturday as well.

3. At 21 he became the youngest ever appointed to the National Panel of referees, and made his Test debut five years later

4. He qualified as a barrister and specialised in criminal law - but gave up the bench in 2005 to become a full time official

5. He names former Sale player Nigel Yates - also a lawyer and fellow Premiership ref - as his biggest influence

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French 1000 Guineas Betting: Maqaasid leads British challenge in Pouliches

Timeform Features / Timeform / 14 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Maqaasid looks the leading British contender in Sunday's Pouliches

"the leading British contender appears to be Maqaasid, who finished third behind Blue Bunting on the Rowley Mile."

It's French Guineas day at Longchamp on Sunday. Timeform's Paul Robson looks at the contenders for the fillies race, the Poules d'Essai des Pouliches...

After the recent defection of Memory, who is reportedly in season, the leading British contender appears to be Maqaasid, who finished third behind Blue Bunting on the Rowley Mile last time. John Gosden's filly was travelling best of all two furlongs out at Newmarket but didn't quite come out of the Dip as strongly as her rider Richard Hills would have liked and, with the flatter track in France likely to be more suitable, she goes there with a leading chance.

Rod Collet will try to emulate his father's success in 1981 when he saddles 1000 Guineas fourth Nova Hawk. However, though she ran creditably at Newmarket, her pedigree does suggest she's likely to be suited by further than a mile in time and perhaps the Prix Diane (French Oaks) could be the race for her.

Ed Dunlop, who won the Pouliches in 1996 with Ta Rib, will be hoping Sharnberry can progress from her Fred Darling second to Rimth and follow suit. Unlike Nova Hawk, however, she will also have to prove her stamina, having looked as if she may prove best at 7f that day. She will also do well to reverse from with the winner, too. Paul Cole's Rimth, who had to be supplemented, was one of the best recent Fred Darling winners and is right up there in terms of ratings, but, she's another who will be hoping for a test of speed.

Another Britain challenger is the unexposed Zoowraa, who makes her debut for Godolphin. A winner of both of her starts at two for Michael Jarvis, including a taking performance in the listed Radley Stakes, she's certainly an interesting contender.

Like Memory, 1000 Guineas seventh Moonlight Cloud was another missing from the declarations for Sunday's race, but, the French still have a strong challenger in the shape of Helleborine, who represents the same connections as last year's dual 1000 Guineas winner Special Duty. Although a beaten favourite twice in her last two outings (both in Group races), her form with Moonlight Cloud, to whom she finished second in the Prix Imprudence, gives her every chance.

The home team's challenge will also be bolstered by Golden Lilac, who will be bidding to give Andre Fabre his third win in the race. Ridden by Maxime Guyon on all three starts so far, including when comfortably landing a Group 3 at Longchamp on her reappearance (beating the reopposing Espiritia), she certainly comes into consideration.

Timeform look at what's in store over the next week, starting with the French Guineas meeting at Longchamp and ending with the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico on Saturday night.......

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Andy Robinson: 'France is the perfect challenge for Scotland'

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