Golf Bets 
/ Mike Norman / 19 July 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Fredrik Andersson Hed fired a final round 62 at the Scottish Open recently
"Felipe Aguilar clearly finds it hard to win then but from those cuts made he has recorded some very creditable finishes, including a third, a sixth, a 13th, a 14th and a 20th - all those finishes coming within the last four months suggesting his game is in decent order."
Having tipped Darren Clarke a week too early Mike Norman is hoping something will fall right at this week's European Tour event, and he believes a Swedish native can win on home soil for the second year running.
Throughout this season Mike will give one selection in each of the Winner, Top Five Finish and Top Ten Finish markets every week a European Tour event is being played.
What an extraordinary four days of golf we had at Royal St George's last week. It was a remarkable performance from Darren Clarke and I couldn't have been more delighted at his success, a success that was - as predicted - a sixth consecutive victory for a European Tour member at a Major championship.
Talking about predictions I received some criticism last week; an anonymous commenter saying that the reason this column isn't in profit is because I was selecting a player (Lee Westwood) to win the Open Championship who had a record of 0 from 53 in Majors. It's perhaps worth mentioning then that Clarke, by amazing coincidence, also had a record of 0 from 53 in Majors prior to last week's event.
The reason this column isn't in profit this season is not because I'm backing players like Westwood, it's because things haven't quite fallen right so far and - in my opinion only - I've endured a lot of misfortune.
Take the newly crowned Open champion for example. Two weeks ago I backed him at [120.0] to win the Scottish Open and at [24.0] for a Top 5 Finish. In that preview (my picture comment says it all really) I said this about DC; "Even more so than (Paul) Lawrie perhaps, Clarke has all the shots to play links courses well." Clarke was available to back at [360.0] prior to the Open Championship starting, and I foolishly didn't have a single penny on! But that's golf, and the show must move on.
And that show arrives at the Nordea Masters this week, to be staged for the second consecutive year at the Bro Hof Slott Golf Club in Stockholm. Dustin Johnson - second at the Open last week and [8.8] favourite to win here - and Bubba Watson ([20.0]) are amongst the star attractions, but it's fingers crossed for me that an in-form Swede can provide back-to-back winners for the home nation following Richard S Johnson's victory here last year.
Winner
A short, receptive Castle Stuart golf course was always going to be at the mercy of professional golfers a fortnight ago but it wasn't until Sunday afternoon that the best round of the week was recorded, a magnificent 62 by Fredrik Andersson Hed.
The tall Swede has been a bit hit and miss so far this season but that runner-up slot at the Scottish Open definitely hinted at a return to form. He took that form into the Open last week, firing a first round 68 before dropping away over the weekend, but almost everyone can be excused for being blown away at Sandwich. Andersson Hed finished 11th at this venue last year so as well as showing excellent recent form, he has performed well here too. And there's always that extra incentive for golfers to win in their own country - something that happens quite regularly. At [40.0] to back, I'm expecting last season's Italian Open winner to go close this week.
Top Five Finish
Felipe Aguilar has made 10 cuts on the European Tour this season, yet he's only managed to break 70 in the final round on two occasions. The Chilean clearly finds it hard to win then but from those cuts made he has recorded some very creditable finishes, including a third, a sixth, a 13th, a 14th and a 20th - all those finishes coming within the last four months suggesting his game is in decent order. Aguilar can be backed at [16.0] to record a Top Five Finish this week and that looks worth an interest given that this week's venue apparently holds no fears (he says on his website that he made 11 birdies during one round at a charity event here last year).
Top Ten Finish
Christian Nilsson recorded two top-10 finishes within the space of a few weeks earlier this season and has shown glimpses of form recently to suggest he can record another Top Ten Finish this week at odds of around [12.0]. Nilsson finished 10 shots under par at the 54-hole Scottish Open a fortnight ago and recorded three excellent rounds at the Open de France (a third round 78 put him out of contention) the previous week. He finished 12th in this tournament in 2009 and definitely has the ability to improve on that finish in, what has to be said, a relatively weak field.
Recommended Bets
Back Fredrik Andersson Hed at [40.0] in Winner market
Back Felipe Aguilar at [16.0] in Top Five Finish market
Back Christian Nilsson at [12.0] in Top Ten Finish market
Total pts bet this season (one pt bet per selection): 72
Total pts returned: 46.15
2011 European Tour season Profit/Loss: -25.85
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