Timeform Radio Tip: Barron sprinter worth waiting for.

"I wouldn't be surprised to see further progress from him this season, and an entry in the Group 3 Sapphire Stakes suggests that the shrewd Yorkshire handler thinks the same. With an excellent draw, an ideal stalking run-style and a jockey riding with renewed confidence, everything looks in place for a huge run from Long Awaited."

It's Derby day, and Rory Delargy has several fancies on the Epsom card. 

David Barron did this column a favour when winning the Zetland Gold Cup during the week, and he's taken to repeat that feat courtesy of Long Awaited in the Investec Dash at Epsom today (15:15). The gelding has improved significantly since joining Barron from Roger Varian, and while he was well held after being hampered in this race last season, that disappointment was forgotten when he won over C&D later in the summer, and he showed further improvement when placed in contrasting ground conditions at Haydock on his final 2 starts last season.

I wouldn't be surprised to see further progress from him this season, and an entry in the Group 3 Sapphire Stakes suggests that the shrewd Yorkshire handler thinks the same. With an excellent draw, an ideal stalking run-style and a jockey riding with renewed confidence, everything looks in place for a huge run from Long Awaited, granted that little bit of luck in running which is crucial in such races.

Most of the fancied horses are drawn high, and that's where the race should develop, but there's a chance that congestion will result from such a scenario, and if there's one horse I'd want to save on, it would be Judge 'n Jury. Ron Harris' gelding checked out very tamely at York last time, which may be indicative of a problem, and makes him a risky proposition, but he has the speed to lead in the early stages, and if back in the groove would be capable of going close. At odds around 30, he's worth a tickle, and should at least trade short after a couple of furlongs, even if he does fold like he did on the Knavesmire.

However Thomas Brown fares on Judge 'n Jury, he looks to have a decent chance in the 6f handicap at 17:25, for which Robert Cowell's Compton looks to have been laid out. In need of his return at Newbury, he showed up much better at York last time, while still fading late as if short of peak fitness. Likely to be cherry-ripe now, he has the requisite low draw to take a good position, and can make it third time lucky for his new yard. He's just 3 lb above his last winning mark, and Brown looks exceptional value for his 5 lb claims.

Recommendations:

All at Epsom

Back Long Awaited @ 7.613/2 in the 15:15 (NAP)
Back Judge 'n Jury @ 28.027/1 in the 15:15 (Lay stake back at 10.0)
Back Compton @ 10.09/1 in the 17:25 (NB)

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Arkle Chase: Sprinter Sacre set for challenge

News / Timeform / 12 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Sprinter Sacre is favourite for the Arkle Chase

"He's looked like a horse we hope might be a bit special."

Nicky Henderson is hoping Sprinter Sacre can succeed where stablemate Finian's Rainbow failed in Tuesday's Arkle Chase at Cheltenham...

Sprinter Sacre is set to face just five rivals in the two-mile Arkle Chase for novices, and arrives on the back of three ultra-impressive wins over fences.

The six-year-old was an easy scorer on his debut at Doncaster in December before demolishing former top-class hurdler Peddlers Cross at Kempton over Christmas, although the runner-up was found to have problems afterwards.

A six-length win in record time in Newbury's Betfair Super Saturday Chase last month sealed his reputation as red-hot Arkle favourite.

However, Henderson is concerned that his keen style of racing could work against him, as it did with Finian's Rainbow who could finish only second in the Arkle in 2011.

"He's looked like a horse we hope might be a bit special. He hasn't beaten anything, but you have to look at his times. He beat the course record at Newbury and he was just beating the clock all on his own," said Henderson.

"He's a classy, good-looking horse and I think he knows it.

"The one worry is that Finian's Rainbow tried to do the same thing last year (go off quickly) and he got mugged. But Sprinter Sacre is a two-miler through and through."

Sprinter Sacre himself was beaten at last year's Festival when third to Al Ferof in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, but the Seven Barrows handler expects him to fare better up the famous Cheltenham hill this time.

"I'm not quite sure why he didn't get up the hill last year, but I think he will (this time)," Henderson added.

Barry Geraghty again takes the mount, and makes no secret of the regard in which he holds him.

He said: "He seems to have it all, he has pace, and he jumps really well. He has so much scope, he ticks every box.

"I have no doubts (about the hill), he ran keen last year and was probably in front earlier than ideal.

"He may get to the front early this year as well, we'll have to wait and see, but with age on his side and the way he jumps I don't think the hill will be an issue.

"It's a very hot race, there's no doubt about that, but this fellow is the most exciting horse I've ridden since Moscow Flyer. He's hard to describe he's so good."
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Timeform TV Focus callers enjoyed over £2500 profit (to £20 level stakes at Betfair SP) in our first year. Call TV Focus for tips on all Cheltenham CH4 races.

Find out what Nicky Henderson, Jessie Harrington and Charlie Longsdon had to say about their runners in Tuesday's Cheltenham curtain-raiser, the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.......

Connections of Binocular are expecting a big run from the 2010 winner, who was unable to defend his crown 12 months ago......

Timeform look back at the highlights from the weekend, which included the Imperial Cup at Sandown and Super Saturday at Meydan......

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Black Caviar: World's best sprinter threatens to raise 135 rating

Australia / Gary Crispe / 11 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Black Caviar raise her rating from 135?

"This makes Black Caviar rate 134+ for her Orr Stakes win, but importantly it sends a clear signal her master Timeform rating of 135 could be threatened in coming starts."

The highest Timeform-rated sprinter in the world, the unbeaten Black Caviar, posted a record equalling victory at Caulfield on Saturday, claiming her eighteenth consecutive success on a major Australian racetrack, and now looks set to raise her rating beyond 135...

Black Caviar who continues to monster her opponents into submission with dazzling mid-race sectionals now shares 18 straight victories with Ajax who in the late 1930's achieved the same feat mid career.

Black Caviar now sits equal third with Eclipse and Karayel on the global undefeated racehorse list. Ahead of her lay US galloper Pepper's Pride on 19 wins and Hungarian galloper Kincsem with a staggering unbeaten run of 54.

Even though she was attempting 1400m for the first time, it really made no difference to the manner in which she inflicted defeat on her rivals.

Today's field comprised mainly middle distance gallopers working through to bigger spoils in the Autumn, a fact some have used to downplay the opposition she faced.

However the Orr Stakes is usually a race used for that purpose and many classy middle distance types have often recorded outstanding wins in the race.

For example, if Black Caviar had not contested today's race, 2011 Group 1 Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed would have beaten dual Group 1 winner Playing God - a result which would have sat very well in the history of the race.

The fact is those two very good in-form gallopers faced a freak galloper and despite running their hearts out were completely outclassed in the last 400m.

The merit of the Black Caviar performance was calculated to be 128+, a figure which sits just under the maximum possible value based on race standardisation but acceptable considering most of field ran to form.

The other factor in the analysis is the manner of the win. Apart from one 200m section from the 400m to the 200m, Black Caviar never really came off the bridle and idled to the line over the final 250m.

It is hard to say just how much Black Caviar had in reserve but under the circumstances an additional two lengths is completely justified for the ease of win.

This makes Black Caviar rate 134+ for her Orr Stakes win, but importantly it sends a clear signal her master Timeform rating of 135 could be threatened in coming starts.

Race time analysis is pretty much meaningless in this case as the early tempo was quite slow. The overall race time was over two seconds outside standard but the sectional times reveal the true story of just how potent Black Caviar was.

She settled beautifully behind that slow pace and from the 1200m to the 600m ran mid 12 second sectionals, but once rider Luke Nolen called on her to quicken from the 600m she once again showed her devastating acceleration that quickly overwhelms her opposition.

Black Caviar quickened to 11.27 seconds (17.75 mps) between the 600m to 400m and then as she nearly always does, went to 10.64 seconds (18.8mps) between the 400m to the 200m quickly putting the race out of the reach of her opponents before idling home in 11.07 seconds (18.06mps).

And the 10.64 seconds 200m sectional time she ran today on a dead racing surface is not even as fast as she can go. For example her fastest 200m sectional was achieved in her 2011 Newmarket win from the 600m to 400m where she went 10.27 seconds (19.47mps).

Her next slowest sectional was in the 2011 Lightning Stakes from the 600m to 400m in 10.34 seconds (19.34mps) and third slowest 10.42 seconds (19.19mps) in the 2011 Schillaci Stakes between the 800m to 600m.

As we can see, Black Caviar's ability to reel off dominant sectionals is the real key to her superior equine ability, and the frightening part is she appears to do it with such ease!

Black Caviar has now won eight Group 1 races which places her second only to the great New Zealand mare Sunline (13 wins) on the modern all time list for mares.

Black Caviar's winning margin of three-and-a-quarter lengths is the second biggest margin in the last 20 Orr Stakes renewals and for the third year in succession Peter Moody and Luke Nolen have combined to win the Orr Stakes with a mare, Typhoon Tracey taking the same race in 2010/2011.

There was talk after the race that Peter Moody was considering a change of future race plans for Black Caviar. Instead of going straight to the G1 Futurity Stakes again over 1400m at Caulfield in a fortnight, Moody is contemplating a drop back to the 1000m of the Group 1 Lightning Stakes down the Flemington straight.

If it eventuates, Black Caviar would have an unexpected rematch with her arch rival Hay List, emerging three-year-old Foxwedge and Sister Madly to name a few.

Such a move is unprecedented in Lightning Stakes history but if any horse could do it, Black Caviar can!
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A step up to seven furlongs proved to be no barrier to success for the incredible Black Caviar as she stretched her unbeaten record to 18 in the CF Orr Stakes at Caulfield......

Timeform's man 'Down Under', Gary Crispe, assesses how Black Caviar is likely to fare when stepping up in trip in the CF Orr Stakes (off 04:50 GMT) at Caulfield on Saturday....

On the eve of the best sprinter in the world attempting to take her career wins to a straight 18, Timeform brings you another international racing podcast......

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