Australia 
/ Gary Crispe / 11 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Can Black Caviar raise her rating from 135?
"This makes Black Caviar rate 134+ for her Orr Stakes win, but importantly it sends a clear signal her master Timeform rating of 135 could be threatened in coming starts."
The highest Timeform-rated sprinter in the world, the unbeaten Black Caviar, posted a record equalling victory at Caulfield on Saturday, claiming her eighteenth consecutive success on a major Australian racetrack, and now looks set to raise her rating beyond 135...
Black Caviar who continues to monster her opponents into submission with dazzling mid-race sectionals now shares 18 straight victories with Ajax who in the late 1930's achieved the same feat mid career.
Black Caviar now sits equal third with Eclipse and Karayel on the global undefeated racehorse list. Ahead of her lay US galloper Pepper's Pride on 19 wins and Hungarian galloper Kincsem with a staggering unbeaten run of 54.
Even though she was attempting 1400m for the first time, it really made no difference to the manner in which she inflicted defeat on her rivals.
Today's field comprised mainly middle distance gallopers working through to bigger spoils in the Autumn, a fact some have used to downplay the opposition she faced.
However the Orr Stakes is usually a race used for that purpose and many classy middle distance types have often recorded outstanding wins in the race.
For example, if Black Caviar had not contested today's race, 2011 Group 1 Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed would have beaten dual Group 1 winner Playing God - a result which would have sat very well in the history of the race.
The fact is those two very good in-form gallopers faced a freak galloper and despite running their hearts out were completely outclassed in the last 400m.
The merit of the Black Caviar performance was calculated to be 128+, a figure which sits just under the maximum possible value based on race standardisation but acceptable considering most of field ran to form.
The other factor in the analysis is the manner of the win. Apart from one 200m section from the 400m to the 200m, Black Caviar never really came off the bridle and idled to the line over the final 250m.
It is hard to say just how much Black Caviar had in reserve but under the circumstances an additional two lengths is completely justified for the ease of win.
This makes Black Caviar rate 134+ for her Orr Stakes win, but importantly it sends a clear signal her master Timeform rating of 135 could be threatened in coming starts.
Race time analysis is pretty much meaningless in this case as the early tempo was quite slow. The overall race time was over two seconds outside standard but the sectional times reveal the true story of just how potent Black Caviar was.
She settled beautifully behind that slow pace and from the 1200m to the 600m ran mid 12 second sectionals, but once rider Luke Nolen called on her to quicken from the 600m she once again showed her devastating acceleration that quickly overwhelms her opposition.
Black Caviar quickened to 11.27 seconds (17.75 mps) between the 600m to 400m and then as she nearly always does, went to 10.64 seconds (18.8mps) between the 400m to the 200m quickly putting the race out of the reach of her opponents before idling home in 11.07 seconds (18.06mps).
And the 10.64 seconds 200m sectional time she ran today on a dead racing surface is not even as fast as she can go. For example her fastest 200m sectional was achieved in her 2011 Newmarket win from the 600m to 400m where she went 10.27 seconds (19.47mps).
Her next slowest sectional was in the 2011 Lightning Stakes from the 600m to 400m in 10.34 seconds (19.34mps) and third slowest 10.42 seconds (19.19mps) in the 2011 Schillaci Stakes between the 800m to 600m.
As we can see, Black Caviar's ability to reel off dominant sectionals is the real key to her superior equine ability, and the frightening part is she appears to do it with such ease!
Black Caviar has now won eight Group 1 races which places her second only to the great New Zealand mare Sunline (13 wins) on the modern all time list for mares.
Black Caviar's winning margin of three-and-a-quarter lengths is the second biggest margin in the last 20 Orr Stakes renewals and for the third year in succession Peter Moody and Luke Nolen have combined to win the Orr Stakes with a mare, Typhoon Tracey taking the same race in 2010/2011.
There was talk after the race that Peter Moody was considering a change of future race plans for Black Caviar. Instead of going straight to the G1 Futurity Stakes again over 1400m at Caulfield in a fortnight, Moody is contemplating a drop back to the 1000m of the Group 1 Lightning Stakes down the Flemington straight.
If it eventuates, Black Caviar would have an unexpected rematch with her arch rival Hay List, emerging three-year-old Foxwedge and Sister Madly to name a few.
Such a move is unprecedented in Lightning Stakes history but if any horse could do it, Black Caviar can!
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Timeform's man 'Down Under', Gary Crispe, assesses how Black Caviar is likely to fare when stepping up in trip in the CF Orr Stakes (off 04:50 GMT) at Caulfield on Saturday....
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