Spanish Football 
/ Tobias Gourlay / 10 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Cristiano Ronaldo scored a hat-trick against Levante in the cup last season
"Lionel Messi has scored in only 3/15 La Liga away games since March last year"
As next week's Champions League games draw the attention of Real Madrid and Barcelona, Tobias Gourlay looks at whether they will have it all their own way against some tricky opponents
Osasuna v Barcelona
Saturday 19:00
Osasuna [10.0] Barcelona [1.38] draw [5.1]
Coming into the new year, Osasuna were on a seven-month unbeaten streak at home (W8-D3-L0). In 2012, however, they have taken one point from nine at the Reyno de Navarro.
Earlier this season, Jose Luis Mendilibar asked his team to keep a preposterously high defensive line and notched a couple of shocking results away to the Big Two, losing by a combined score of 15-1. Presumably he will be more sensible in Pamplona this weekend.
Leo Messi scored a delightful hat-trick in Malaga three weeks ago, just after this column had gone into detail about his poor strike rate on the road. Since then, Villarreal have kept him - and indeed all of his team-mates - off the scoresheet at El Madrigal, which means the Argentine has now scored in 3/15 La Liga away games since March last year.
Pep Guardiola's tinkering has made Barca a more difficult team to bet on than Real Madrid this season. In his quest for continuous improvement, he has played three at the back just when this column wanted him to keep a clean sheet and dropped Xavi when it wanted his team to score at least four.
This weekend, there is something else to think about - Tuesday's Champions League game in Germany. It's not clear yet whether Pep will risk yet more dropped points away from home in the league to focus on Europe, but the simple facts of Barca's poor away record (W4-D5-L1) and Messi's bad scoring form suggest that the team should be laid to win and the star man not backed to score.
Recommended Bet: Lay Barcelona @ [1.38]
Real Betis v Athletic Bilbao
Saturday 21:00
Betis [2.74] Athletic [2.9] draw [3.4]
A reminder about Fernando Llorente's good form, which we mentioned here last week. Athletic's star striker didn't strike first last week, but he did strike once, so the Lion King has now scored in six of his last seven starts.
There's something else about this game too: Betis have been level at half-time in five of their last seven at the Benito Villamarin, while Athletic have been all-square after 45 minutes of all of their most recent seven away games.
It's a difficult pattern to explain - only three of Athletic's seven half-time draws have been goalless - but the numbers say there's value in the half-time draw at [2.1].
Recommended Bet: Back Fernando Llorente To Score @ [2.5]
Real Madrid v Levante
Sunday 20:30
Real [1.1] Levante [41.0] draw [10.5]
Ignore their defeat to Barcelona in December and Real Madrid are on a winning streak of 16 in the league. At the Bernabeu, Jose Mourinho is W25-D0-L2 against teams that aren't Barca.
In the first half of the current campaign, Levante exceeded the world's pre-season expectations by more than any other team in La Liga. After nine games, they were W7-D2-L0 and second in the table. They made it through the early stages of the cup too, but it seems that playing two games every other week or so has taken a toll on Juan Ignacio Martinez's small squad.
The Frogs are still fourth, but they are ready to croak. Their elevated position reflects the inconsistencies of some bigger clubs, who really ought to be pushing Valencia harder for third. Their record in the most recent 12 rounds of La Liga is W2-D3-L7. Away from home, they've lost five in a row. That run includes heavy defeats to Barcelona (0-5) and Athletic Bilbao (0-3).
Backing Any Unquoted in the Correct Score market has been the right thing to do in 7/9 league games at the Bernabeu involving teams that weren't Barcelona. There's a small concern that Mourinho might want to rest players in the second half - Real must travel to Moscow for a Champions League game on Wednesday - but, as the competition for first-team places hots up, at least Higuain, Benzema and Ozil will be playing as hard as ever.
That Champions League game is a good reason to make sure of the points early, but it's interesting that Real have been level at half-time in five of the nine homes they've gone on to win this season and three of the last four. Draw/Real Madrid is [6.2] in the Half Time/Full Time market and worth a punt.
Recommended Bet: Back Any Unquoted Correct Score @ [2.3]
*Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay
There could be a fresh face in the Champions League next season from Spain, but it is far from clear who that will be at this stage, with so many clubs in contention......
Thiago Silva leads Barcelona's summer wish list, in which Gareth Bale also appears, according to rumours in the build-up to their Copa del Rey clash with Valencia......
With Real Madrid set to win the derby with Getafe and keep Barcelona at bay, the Big Two might like to follow Tobias Gourlay's lead and take a closer look at in-form Fernando Llorente...
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