Premier League 
/ Soccer Widow / 09 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Javier Hernandez and Ryan Giggs can help United to success on Saturday
"Liverpool’s chances of victory are statistically only 22%. The back price for a United win is 1.94, being approximately 32% above the true mathematical value. The value bets in this match are therefore definitely backing United or laying the draw."
Soccer Widow does her usual exhaustive analysis of the stats ahead of what might prove to be a crucial clash in the title race as two of English football's biggest rivals. lock horns
Whether Liverpool FC can still be counted as one of 'the big four' is debatable from the viewpoint of recent Premier League title outcomes. But one thing is for sure: the club never ceases to be a thorn in the side of Manchester United, buzzing around the Red Devils' honey pot of success like an angry, jealous wasp. Despite failing in its last 21 title attempts, Liverpool still carries a sting in its tail, which has needled venomously into United's own title challenges in recent league meetings. Liverpool are always difficult to beat and their approach to games against United has potency cocktailed by pride in its own once-heralded success and the fact that the Manchester club now has an apparent patent on it.
Liverpool was England's glory club from the mid 1970's to the early 1990's. Effectively, United have spent the last 20 years playing catch-up. The two teams are far and away the most successful in English football history and the records bear an incredible resemblance.
The all-time league points record (including the last round of games played) shows United in first position with 5,841 points gained, and Liverpool second with a total of 5,725. United has played 4,314 games as opposed to Liverpool's tally of 4,282, with United winning 1,319 of its matches and Liverpool, 1,320. It's that close. However, talking top-flight only, Liverpool sit head-and-shoulders above the rest with 5,157 points from 3,854 games and 1,158 wins. United is only fourth in this table (behind Everton third and Arsenal second) with 4,861 points from 3,498 matches, 1,041 of them victories.
The games between these two old adversaries are always hard to call but Soccerwidow will once again explore the statistics and as usual pick out the bets with the best value.
Statistical Facts
Head-To-Head (Manchester United Home, Liverpool Away, 15 matches since 1998, all competitions)
•United 10 wins (67%), one draw (7%), Liverpool four wins (26%); Last six (most recent first): H-H-H-A-H-H
•Seven times United winning at half-time (47%), five draws (33%), three times Liverpool (20%)
•United clean sheet six times (40%); Liverpool clean sheet three times (20%)
•Both teams have scored in six of the 15 matches (40%); nine of the 15 games saw only one team score (60%)
•No games finished 0-0 at full-time
•Seven games finished at half-time 1-0 to Manchester United
•Goal numbers in the last six matches (most recent first): 1-5-3-5-3-2
•Half-time/Full-time: Seven times United/United (46%); twice Draw/United (13%); twice Draw/Liverpool (13%); twice Liverpool/Liverpool (13%)
Manchester United's last 25 home games (Premier League)
•22 wins (88%), one draw (4%), two losses (8%); Last six (most recent first): W-W-L-W-W-D
•At half-time: 17 wins (68%), six draws (24%), two losses (8%)
•Clean sheets: 13 (52%)
•Both teams scored in 12 matches (48%); 13 games saw goals from one team only (52%)
•No games finished 0-0 full time
•Eight games finished at half-time 1-0 to Manchester United (32%)
•Goal numbers in the last six matches (most recent first): 2-3-5-5-5-2
•Half-time/Full-time: 17 times United/United (68%), five times Draw/United (20%), twice Away/Away (8%)
Liverpool's last 25 away games (Premier League)
•10 wins (40%), two draws (8%), 13 losses (52%); Last six (most recent first): W-L-L-D-W-L
•At half-time: seven wins (28%), 10 draws (40%), eight losses (32%)
•Clean sheets: nine (36%)
•Both teams scored in 10 matches (40%); 15 games saw goals from one team only (60%)
•1 game finished 0-0 full time (4%)
•Four games finished 1-0 to the home team at half-time (16%)
•Goal numbers in the last six matches (most recent first): 3-4-3-0-2-1
•Half-time/Full-time: Eight times Home/Home (32%), four times Draw/Home (16%), four times Draw/Liverpool (16%), six times Liverpool/Liverpool (24%)
Summary:
In terms of odds calculation, this is a very interesting match and so different to the FA Cup game between these two sides at Anfield a fortnight ago. Both teams show a statistically strong tendency not to draw (United 4%, Liverpool 8% and head-to-head 6.7%). The true odds for the draw should therefore be as high as [15.80], which no bookmaker or exchange will offer. In this case, the market has settled on draw odds based on the average for a draw in the Premier League at around [3.70], which, for this match, is more than 75% below the true value! According to the combined statistics of United's last 25 home matches, Liverpool's last 25 away games and the last 15 head-to-head meetings in the league, United has an overwhelming 68% chance of winning this game.
Liverpool's chances of victory are statistically only 22%. The back price for a United win is [1.94], being approximately 32% above the true mathematical value. The value bets in this match are therefore definitely backing United or laying the draw.
The half-time/full-time market is also offering good value due to the fact both teams tend not to draw their games. Furthermore, the statistics show there is a very high probability the game will not finish 0-0, and as the probability for a 1-0 lead to United at half-time is around 35%, one should perhaps consider wagering a small amount on this result too.
Recommended bets:
a)Back Manchester United (odds: [1.94], true odds: [1.46])
b)Lay the Draw (odds: [3.80]; true odds: [15.80])
United/United
Draw/United
Draw/Liverpool
Liverpool/Liverpool
(odds return: [1.43]; true odds: [1.12])
d)Back 1-0 to United at half-time (odds: [3.95]; real odds: [2.80])
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