Follow The Money at Cheltenham: Bets for the Ryanair, World Hurdle and Byrne Group Plate

"First Lieutenant is yet to win this season, but has run some excellent races in defeat where he finished third in the Hennessy and was narrowly beaten in the Lexus Chase over Christmas at Leopardstown."

Back First Lieutenant @ 3.55/2 Cheltenham 14:40 

It's back to the Cheltenham Festival for the Follow The Money team...

Our first selection is in the Ryanair Chase at 14:40 where First Lieutenant has been well supported from 3.8514/5 in to 3.55/2. This will be the third visit to the Festival for the Mouse Morris-trained runner and he has a decent record here, having won the Neptune Novice Hurdle in 2011 and finishing runner-up to Bobs Worth in last year's RSA Chase.

First Lieutenant is yet to win this season, but has run some excellent races in defeat where he finished third in the Hennessy and was narrowly beaten in the Lexus Chase over Christmas at Leopardstown. He has been given a break since that race unlike main market rival Cue Card, whose form suggests he is best fresh. With only 26 days since Cue Card's win at Ascot we have to oppose him. Davy Russell is back on board First Lieutenant, who looks to have an outstanding chance of giving Michael O'Leary his first winner in the race he sponsors.   

Next we move to the World Hurdle at 15:20 where Smad Place has been heavily backed from 16.5n/a in to 10.09/1. Alan King's runner was third in this race last year (beaten nine lengths by Big Buck's) but his two efforts this year are not so impressive - he was well beaten by Tidal Bay at Wetherby and ran slightly better in the Long Walk Hurdle where he finished second. The ground was heavy on both occasions and he will certainly appreciate today's quicker surface. With doubts over Oscar Whisky's stamina and the ground perhaps being against Reve De Sivola, this year's contest has an open look to it and the market support suggests this six-year-old could spring a surprise. 

The negative for today comes in the Byrne Group Plate at 16:00 and it is the David Pipe-trained runner Ballynagour who is weak in the market and has drifted out to 6.05/1 from 4.67/2. An impressive winner last month at Warwick on his initial start for the Pipe stable, he has some solid French form and it is possible he is still ahead of the handicapper. In a competitive race however, his odds look short and with the hefty raise in the weights punters are happy to take the favourite on today. 

Recommended Bets
Back First Lieutenant @ 3.55/2 Cheltenham 14:40 
Back Smad Place @ 10.09/1 Cheltenham 15:20  
Lay Ballynagour @ 6.05/1 Cheltenham 16:00 

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Oakleigh Plate: Peter Snowden says Sepoy has big task

News / Timeform / 21 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Sepoy is Dubai-bound

"...no three-year-old has carried more to victory than the 57kg shouldered by Fastnet Rock in 2005."

Peter Snowden has had his worst fears realised as his star sprinter Sepoy has been allotted top weight of 58kg for the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate, run over 1100m at Caulfield on Saturday...

If Sepoy, who has only been beaten once in 11 outings, can win under such a burden he will set a weight-carrying record in the $400,000 event as, since the race was first run in 1884, no three-year-old has carried more to victory than the 57kg shouldered by Fastnet Rock in 2005.

In fact, no horse has successfully carried more than 57kg since champion mare Dual Choice won under 59.5kg four decades ago.

That said, Snowden has stated that his primary concern is not with how much weight Sepoy has to carry but with how he is handicapped in relation to his rivals, most notably how the horse must concede 1kg to Schweppes Rubiton Stakes-winning six-year-old Eagle Falls.

Snowden went on to express how, despite his unease, he was keen to start Sepoy in the Oakleigh Plate in order to give the Sheikh Mohammed-owned chestnut a solid prep before leaving for Dubai next month, where he looks likely to hold leading claims in the six-furlong Group 1 Golden Shaheen at Meydan on March 31.

Sepoy is currently trading at [2.74] for Saturday's Oakleigh Plate, a race won by the aforementioned Eagle Falls last year carrying the same weight.

Joining them in the field are likely to be Bel Sprinter (54kg) and triple top-level winner Yosei (53.5kg).

...........
Timeform ratings were in fine form at the weekend. Click HERE to see the top rated roll call, or click HERE to get race cards & ratings for today's meetings.

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Northumberland Plate Betting: Mount Athos to make amends in Pitmen's Derby

Ante-post / Timeform / 22 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Mount Athos and Harlestone Times are among the less exposed in Saturday's Northumberland Plate

"In attempting to come from right out the back (forced five wide on the bend), Mount Athos arguably shaped like the best horse at Chester and he’s definitely worth having on side on Saturday."

This Saturday sees Newcastle stage one of the most valuable two mile handicaps in the world, the Northumberland Plate, or the 'Pitmen's Derby' as it is commonly known. Timeform's Paul Robson takes a look at the race...

Quite often in these valuable staying handicaps, it is a horse with a jumping background that comes out on top, as was the case in 2010 when Overturn, who had improved markedly to win the Scottish Champion Hurdle, added the Plate to his record.

Donald McCain's dual-purpose star is back to defend his crown and has an obvious chance judged on his jumps form but, strictly speaking, he's badly handicapped on what he achieved when taking the Chester Cup last time. The feeling was that everything went his way at Chester, making all from the plum draw, and with his mark up a further 7lb, McCain has seen fit to try and negate some of it by using his stable conditional jockey Henry Brooke, who himself has more experience of the NH game.

Behind Overturn at Chester last time was David Wachman's Mount Athos, who was scuppered by the draw as he was beaten into fourth. Dropped out, Mount Athos had little chance from the position he found himself in and did little to alter the view of him formed on his winning debut for the stable (formerly trained by John Hills) at Dundalk, that there's improvement in him for his new handler. In attempting to come from right out the back (forced five wide on the bend), Mount Athos arguably shaped like the best horse at Chester and he's definitely worth having on side on Saturday.

Overturn and Mount Athos are both towards the head of the betting, but the currently market leader is Michael Bell's Activate, who has been the subject of strong support in recent days. The improving handicapper completed the hat-trick when making a winning reappearance at Haydock in May (had Deauville Flyer back in fourth) and is still relatively unexposed, not least for a test of stamina, his Haydock win the first time he had tried two miles. Bell took the Plate in 2007 with a similarly progressive sort in Juniper Girl and has a good chance of winning it again, with any further rain no issue for Activate, but the value in backing him has gone and we have to look elsewhere.

Deauville Flyer strikes as a better bet than the market leader, as the impression at Haydock was that he would give Activate more to think about were they to reoppose. Deauville Flyer was sent off favourite for the Plate last year, when not getting the rub of the green, and his efforts so far this season have hinted that he's still getting better, something he would have proven at Haydock with a clear run, beginning to wind up when hampered twice, losing all chance and finishing with running left.

Another lightly-raced and progressive type is Harlestone Times who is owned, bred and trained by John Dunlop. Harlestone Times has won three of his last four starts, and had Royal Ascot winner Beachfire back in third when successful at Goodwood last time. Although the furthest he's tackled so far is a mile and a half, he's both bred and shapes as if a test of stamina is what he wants, so it's no surprise to see him towards the head of the betting, striking very much as having plenty of improvement left in him.

Mark Johnston's Fox Hunt is another that has to come into the reckoning, having landed the Duke of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot last time. He has a few more questions to answer than most, however, as he'll be stepping up half a mile in trip and having his third race in three weeks, which might just find him out, especially if the ground is testing.

Nicky Mackay had a memorable Royal Ascot, winning two big handicaps, and one week on he'll have a chance of landing another with Investissement. Originally bought to go hurdling (for Evan Williams), Investissement was transferred to John Gosden's stable and showed improved form to make a winning return at Goodwood over a mile and three quarters in April, but he's got more on his plate in this more competitive field.

Without knowing the draw and quite how testing the ground is going to be at Gosforth Park on Saturday, it's hard to be confident about anything. But the value in backing Activate is long gone and Overturn (who missed Royal Ascot due to soft going) has a bit to prove, his potential based on him transferring more of his jumps form, so the pair to concentrate on are Mount Athos who shaped so well at Chester last time and Harlestone Times who has been crying out for staying trips, both of them still relatively unexposed.

Recommendations

Back Mount Athos @ [10.0] and Harlestone Times @ [9.4] in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle.

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