Showing posts with label Derby. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Derby. Show all posts
September 8, 2013
August 31, 2013
August 11, 2013
Epsom Derby: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide
The unbeaten Dawn Approach is a confident selection to confirm his stamina and become the third 2000 Guineas winner in the last 5 years to follow up at Epsom...
Timeform analyse the chances of each runner in the 2013 Derby...
Battle of Marengo has done little wrong since debut, improving again when winning Derrinstown Trial at Leopardstown, beating Criterium winner Loch Garman. Step up in trip will suit in first-time cheekpieces.
Chopin was supplemented for $75,000 by new owner on back of impressive 8-length success in 8.5f Group 3, beating subsequent German Guineas runner-up. Certain he has more to offer stepped up in trip.
Dawn Approach is a top-class and unbeaten son of the 2008 Derby winner New Approach, and was most impressive when winning the Guineas on return last month by 5 lengths. Potential stamina doubt looks the only chink in his armour.
Festive Cheer was an easy winner of a Dundalk maiden at 2 yrs that worked out well and improved again when narrow third in 11f Longchamp Group 2 on return. Further step up in trip will suit.
Flying The Flag is out of the Irish Guineas and Nassau winner Halfway To Heaven, but looks down the Ballydoyle pecking order here having been held in the French and Irish Guineas so far this year.
Galileo Rock looks all stamina, closely related to high-class stayer Saddler's Rock. Not beaten far in 1¼m Sandown Classic Trial on return and will relish longer trip, but possibly more of a Leger type.
Libertarian was held by Galileo Rock at Sandown but dented some lofty reputations when running out impressive winner of the Dante subsequently, finding plenty. Step up in trip will suit but a lot more needed here.
Mars was favourite for this even before he won 7f Dundalk maiden in good style last summer. Encouraging sixth in the Guineas only run since and will have plenty more to offer over middle distances.
Mirsaale booked his place in the field with success in the 1¼m trial at the course in April. Longer trip will be no problem but has a mountain to climb on form to get involved.
Ocean Applause is a fairly useful maiden but hasn't beaten another rival on his last 2 starts. Impossible to make a case for in refitted headgear.
Ocovango is an unbeaten French-trained colt who made all readily in 1¼m Group 3 Prix Greffulhe last month. Trainer landed same race before scoring in this with Pour Moi in 2011 and should improve up in trip.
Ruler of The World is a Galileo half-brother to Duke of Marmalade. Another trial winner for Ballydoyle when running away with Chester Vase in first-time cheekpieces, storming clear. Respected with stamina assured.
Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Dawn Approach
2. Mars
3. Chopin
Timeform View: The unbeaten Dawn Approach is a confident selection to confirm his stamina and become the third 2000 Guineas winner in the last 5 years to follow up at Epsom. Ballydoyle will clearly have a major say over how matters unfold with Mars and Battle of Marengo arguably the pick of their hopefuls, while Chopin, the first-ever German-trained runner in the race, can also reach the frame.
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May 20, 2013
Myth-busting: 2000 Guineas is the best Derby trial
"This year’s Guineas winner Dawn Approach has some illustrious hoofprints to fill, but this “myth” provides encouragement that he can do so, for it is not really a myth at all..."
Simon Rowlands analyses the recognised Derby Trials in an attempt to discover which provides the best pointers for Epsom...
This saying is not as popular as it once was - indeed, it took no small amount of Googling to relocate it - but the idea that the best trial for the second colts' classic is the first colts' classic has a certain ring of truth to it.
Against that, the Guineas is run at a mile at Newmarket, while the Derby is run at just over a mile and a half at Epsom. It is asking something of a young horse to excel at both in the space of less than a month.
As with many a "myth", its veracity depends in no small part on how you look at the evidence. Judged on winners alone, the Guineas is equal on four with the Dante for three-year-old "trials" this century, though in New Approach's case he ran in the Irish Guineas between defeat at Newmarket and success at Epsom.
If we take a horse's most recent run prior to the Derby as its definitive trial for that race, the Dante is alone at the top, but from 28 representatives this century against 18 for the Guineas. The strike-rate for horses going to Epsom straight from the Guineas is higher than the same for the Dante, in other words.
Regular readers of this blog will know that wins, and wins alone, can be a crude measure, and that strike-rates are often little better: the former disregards the wealth of nuanced information from the majority of horses that do not win, while the latter fails to allow for opportunity, such as reflected in field size.
One way to look at this issue is to consider the percentage of rivals beaten by horses in a given trial and then the percentage of rivals beaten by that cohort in the Derby itself. Percentage of rivals beaten reflects, for instance, that it is better to finish second of 15 than second of five.
There is one slight drawback with this approach, and that is our old friend Regression To The Mean, which dictates that winners of trials will be punished compared to horses out the back. If you have beaten 100% of your rivals in a trial, you can at best match that in the Derby itself; conversely, if you have finished plum last in a trial you can do no worse (and may do better) in the big race itself. There is a tendency for extremes to head towards the middle.
An adjustment for this phenomenon alters the figures somewhat, but not the ranking, and has the Guineas as top on a factor of 0.78 (a horse that had beaten 50% of its rivals in the Guineas could be expected to beat 39% of its rivals in the Derby), followed by Leopardstown's Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial on 0.76, the Dante on 0.74 and the Chester Vase on 0.68.
One interesting consequence of this is that it implies finishing second in this year's Guineas (beating 91.7% of rivals, with an expectation of beating 71.5% at Epsom) would be better than winning the Chester Vase (expectation of beating 68% of rivals at Epsom).
The figures for all trials (latest run only) which produced five or more runners in the Derby this century are shown here: 
By this measure the Guineas is indeed the best trial for the Derby, but only just. By other measures, it could be argued that it is not, but only just.
This year's Guineas winner Dawn Approach has some illustrious hoofprints to fill, but this "myth" provides encouragement that he can do so, for it is not really a myth at all.
While the figures quoted are primarily descriptive of past events, I will, for interest, calculate expected % rivals beaten when all the named trials have been run and post those expectations in the comments section below.
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Epsom Derby: Telescope pleases in gallop
"There's still a chance he could make the Derby but we'll just take it day by day..."
Derby candidate Telescope could have a racecourse gallop at Lingfield this week if he emerges unscathed from a workout in Newmarket on Sunday...
The Sir Michael Stoute-trained colt missed his intended seasonal reappearance in the Dante Stakes at York last week after grazes on his legs became infected.
Telescope, who is owned by Highclere Thoroughbred Racing, was put through his paces on the Limekilns gallop in Newmarket, working in company with an older stablemate.
Highclere's Harry Herbert reports Stoute to be satisfied with the gallop and Telescope could now go to Lingfield on Wednesday with the Epsom Classic still in their sights on June 1.
"Sir Michael has called me and he seemed very pleased," said Herbert.
"We'll just see how he is before we move on to the next step. If he comes through this OK, we'll take him to Lingfield on Wednesday where he will have his racecourse gallop. As long as Sir Michael is happy with him tonight and tomorrow morning, that will be the plan.
"As if there is not enough pressure surrounding a British Derby candidate, this has just added to the stress of it all really. There's still a chance he could make the Derby but we'll just take it day by day."
Get open access to Timeform data for just £2.50 a day with Timeform Race Passes. It's like a Form Book, Black Book & Race Card all in one! Find Out More!
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April 9, 2013
Roma v Lazio: Totti can inspire the Giallorossi to derby success
"The price can perhaps be explained by Lazio’s poor form in the spring. They’re 16th in the second half of the season in Serie A, a dip that’s attributable to injuries to key players..."
Back Roma to win @ 2.021/1
James Horncastle previews Monday night's Rome derby and believes Serie A legend Francesco Totti can add to his goal tally in a Roma victory...
Roma v Lazio
Monday 19:45, live on ESPN
When you get to Francesco Totti's age it's good to set objectives in order to motivate yourself to keep going.
In the long-term, the Roma captain wants to score the 48 goals required to reach the former Lazio striker Silvio Piola and become the all-time top scorer in the history of Serie A.
In the short-term, he aims to find the net in Monday night's eagerly anticipated Rome derby. Because if Totti were to do so, he would join Dino da Costa and Marco Delvecchio as the players to have scored most against Lazio in Roma's history.
Totti, it must be said, has traditionally found the going quite tough against Lazio. He has scored only eight times against them in 20 years, whereas Da Costa managed to get nine in the space of just two and a half between October 1956 and April 1959. Delvecchio did it in five between 1997 and 2002.
Although Totti's last goal against Lazio came two years ago, there's reason to believe he'll add to his total on Monday.
From a personal perspective, the 36-year-old is having an excellent season. Totti is the only Serie A player to have reached double figures for goals (11) and assists (10) this term. Italy coach Cesare Prandelli has even spoken about the prospect of calling him up for the 2014 World Cup should he be performing at this level this time next year.
Back him To Score at the best price available once the market becomes more liquid.
The exchange makes Roma favourites to win the 138th derby at 2.021/1. That might strike some as strange. Fifth placed Lazio have won the last three derbies in a row and are three points ahead of Roma in seventh. So why does the market have them at 4.1n/a?
The price can perhaps be explained by Lazio's poor form in the spring. They're 16th in the second half of the season in Serie A, a dip that's attributable to injuries to key players in particular Miroslav Klose - who, according to coach Vladimir Petkovic is still a slight doubt for Monday along with Stefano Mauri. Add into the mix some poor officiating, slices of bad luck and going deep into the Europa League where they're in the quarter-finals and you have your answer.
Lazio lost 2-0 to Fenerbahçe in Istanbul on Thursday night. As it happens, they've never won in Serie A after an away leg in the Europa League this season. They felt particularly hard done by on the sending off of Ogenyi Onazi and on the penalty that Stefan Radu was harshly adjudged to have given away. While it's not as though Lazio need getting up for the derby, they've promised to channel their anger at these perceived injustices into it anyway.
Which brings us nicely on to discipline. There have been seven red cards in the last four Rome derbies. So why not back there to be another one at 2.89/5.
Also penalties can be anticipated. There have been five scored in the last seven meetings between Roma and Lazio. Three of them have been put away by Hernanes, who is also worth considering to score at anytime at the best price available. Given there have been Over 2.5 Goals in three of the last five derbies too, it might be worth getting on that too even at 1.8810/11.
Recommended Bets
Back Roma to win @ 2.021/1
Back Francesco Totti To Score @ best price available
Back Hernanes to score @ best price available
Back a Sending Off @ 2.89/5
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.8810/11
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April 5, 2013
Serie A: Back goals in the Rome derby and Atalanta to spring a surprise
"Earlier this season, these two produced a 5 goal thriller, and while tiredness and nervousness may not lead to a classic in the mould of last weekend’s Torino v Napoli game, I still think that over 3.5 goals at around 3.412/5 is a fair price."
Italian football expert Dave Farrar expect goals in the big derby of the weekend, and Atalanta to upset Inter at the San Siro...
Fiorentina v Milan
Having backed Fiorentina for a Top Four finish at the start of the season, it's becoming agonising to see them throw away points in the manner that they did last week against Cagliari. Analysis of La Viola's season shows that they could be in with a real chance of finishing second, and already have a Champions League place sewn up. They have dropped 17 points against teams in the bottom half of the table so far, and that's something that's worth remembering when you look at their "easy" run in. It will only be as comfortable as they make it for themselves.
Sunday morning's match at the Artemio Franchi will be well worth watching: Fiorentina beat Milan at San Siro back in November, and the Rossoneri will be out for revenge. Max Allegri's side have their sights set firmly on second place, and they too will look back at the end of the season and consider the points that they threw away in its early stages. The defining moments of Milan's season start here, with Napoli and Juve to come in the next two weeks, and they will be looking to win. A draw will cede ground to Napoli, and they can't afford that given the nature of their next two challenges. Fiorentina are priced at 3.02/1 for the win, with Milan 2.68/5 and I don't see too much wrong with those prices. Given how closely matched the teams are, in fact, the draw at 3.412/5 may be the smartest play of all.
I'm more interested in the goals markets, though. Since Ezequiel Schelotto scored the equaliser in the derby, Milan have gone 379 minutes without conceding a goal in Serie A, and that must be the main reason why over 2.5 goals is available at 2.0621/20. Given the way that the game is likely to be played, that's an attractive proposition. Although Fiorentina will be without Stefan Jovetic, Vincenzo Montella will look to use the pace in his team to unsettle Milan, and I think that he'll have some success. At the other end of the field, Milan can cause La Viola problems, and I actually fancy the Rossoneri to edge this, but the best bet is on the overs at odds against.
Recommended Bet
Back over 2.5 Goals in Fiorentina v Milan @ 2.0621/20
Roma v Lazio
The Rome derby on Monday night rounds off a brilliant weekend of TV fixtures, and this is a tough one to call. There have been seven red cards in the last five runnings of this fixture, and while that doesn't necessarily lead you to lump on 'Yes' in the Sending Off? market, it does make you realise that anything could happen here. Roma MUST beat Lazio to rekindle any hopes that they have of a Top Four finish, and they know that a win would draw them level on points with their city rivals. The identity of the Top Four will be the glue that binds the rest of the Serie A season together. Roma are justifiably favourites, but they look a little short to me at 2.021/1.
I can't support a team that lost in Palermo (and failed to score) at that kind of price in a game of this magnitude, especially given the fact that Lazio have won the last three derbies. All season long we have seen that Lazio are a better team with Miroslav Klose, and even though he's on his way back, he still won't be fit to start. Roma are missing the suspended Pablo Osvaldo, and that creates a conundrum in terms of the Match Odds market: Roma are justifiably favourites, but are short enough at 2.021/1. I think that Lazio will score at least once, and we know that Roma, even after the departure of Zdenek Zeman and without Osvaldo, are capable of producing goals at home (3 and 2 in the first two post Zeman games).
Earlier this season, these two produced a 5 goal thriller, and while tiredness and nervousness may not lead to a classic in the mould of last weekend's Torino v Napoli game, I still think that over 3.5 goals at around 3.412/5 is a fair price.
Recommended Bet
Back over 3.5 Goals in Roma v Lazio @ 3.412/5
Inter v Atalanta
A couple of weeks ago, we profitably supported Bologna at a price to win at Inter. Something similar may happen this weekend as Atalanta visit San Siro. Atalanta are priced at 5.14/1 to win against Inter, and with the home team's striking issues reaching crisis point, Stefano Colantuono's side can cause a surprise this weekend. Atalanta have already beaten Inter once this season, in a brilliant game, and they've already won at San Siro, when they frustrated Milan, and caught them on the counter with a Luca Cigarini goal.
In their last two away games, Atalanta have won in Siena, and then caused Napoli a world of pain before being beaten. They were unable to break down Samp last week, but there's a big difference between having to break down a rock solid defence at home, and playing on the counter attack away, and given Inter's problems in forward areas, Atalanta may have enough about them to keep a clean sheet, and grab a prize at the other end. Rodrigo Palacio has been Inter's only threat in recent weeks, scoring 5 of their last 6 Serie A goals, and his injury means that Andrea Stramaccioni is down to Antonio Cassano plus one other.
Whatever the combination, it won't strike fear into Atalanta, and, at the risk of going to the well one time too many, I'll be supporting German Denis and Inter loanee Marko Livaja to inspire an away win. If you think that Atalanta look safely midtable, and that this could be one of those bloodless performances that we can see in late season, I wouldn't worry: they have a tough run of games to come, and won't want to take any chances.
Recommended Bet
Back Atalanta to beat Inter @ 5.14/1
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January 4, 2013
Against All Odds: Edinburgh derby to give us goals
"As far as the goals go, Hibs’ matches have been averaging 2.86 goals per 90 minutes so far this term, with 14 of their 21 games having had three or more."
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Hearts v Hibernian @ 1.8810/11
It's the Edinburgh derby in Scotland tonight and despite the Betfair markets predicting few goals, Paul Robinson thinks we could be in for a high scoring game.
Hearts are ninth in the SPL after picking up 25 points from their opening 20 fixtures. They will be looking to improve on that position and it should be quite possible as not only do they have a game or two in hand, the league is quite tight bar the top and bottom clubs. They would be higher already if they could just put the ball in the net a bit more often, as with 20 scored, only Dundee have netted fewer.
John McGlynn's side have been fine for the most part at home though. They've won four of their last six at Tynecastle Stadium, scoring two goals in three of the last five. The Jam Tarts can sometimes be a bit vulnerable at the back, highlighted by the fact that they conceded four at home to Celtic recently, and two against the lowly Ross County at the end of October.
Hibernian are having a fantastic season compared to last year's 11th place finish. Pat Fenlon's men are up in fourth place and if they win tonight they will go level on points with the second placed, Inverness. They picked up a confidence boosting victory over Celtic last time after losing three of their previous four.
As far as the goals go, Hibs' matches have been averaging 2.86 goals per 90 minutes so far this term, with 14 of their 21 games having had three or more. Away from Easter Road, eight of their 10 have gone over 2.5, with three of their last six actually going over 3.5.
While this match should be a hard fought contest, I can still see a few goals going in, so with under 2.5 trading around the 1.8810/11 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Hearts v Hibernian @ 1.8810/11
Wagered: 2 pts
Returned: 2.15 pts
P/L + 0.15 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: 9.60 pts)
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April 13, 2012
Australian Derby Preview: Gai to break Derby duck?
News 
/ Gary Crispe / 12 April 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Randwick stages the Australian Derby on Saturday.
"If Laser Hawk gets the right run he looks a great chance to give Gai her first Australian Derby winner and become the fifth three-year-old to take the Rosehill Guineas/Derby double in the last 20 years..."
It is hard to imagine champion trainer Gai Waterhouse has never won the Group 1 Australian Derby (Saturday, BST 06:35) on her home turf at Randwick, but that could all change this afternoon...
Waterhouse has saddled up three Derby placegetters in her short training career to date, Descarado (2nd in 2010), Tuesday Joy (3rd in 2007) and Carnegie Express (2nd in 2002) but she has probably never had a better opportunity to ring up number one.
Fresh from her fourth Golden Slipper win last week with Pierro, Waterhouse will have two three-year-olds in the Blue Riband event over 2400m; Rosehill Guineas winner Laser Hawk and useful type Satirical Boy.
However, ratings riser Laser Hawk is clearly the better chance of the two. Lightly raced, he has won four of his five race starts, his most recent a hard fought win in the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas over 2000m, defeating Kiwi gallopers Ocean Park and Silent Achiever.
That pair oppose him again this afternoon but Laser Hawk appeals as the likely victor again.
Laser Hawk has made rapid improvement in three runs this campaign, taking his Timeform rating to a new level of 123p in the Rosehill Guineas. That followed a 101 rating on resumption at Rosehill in Benchmark 80 company and a 117 when narrowly defeated by crack filly Mosheen in the Group 1 Randwick Guineas over 1600m.
Not only does Laser Hawk have further capacity for improvement but he has a very adaptable running style that could see him lead if necessary, given the race, on paper at least, looks devoid of any recognised pace.
There is no doubt the Rosehill Guineas is the key lead up race for this afternoon's Derby. Historically the Rosehill Guineas has provided 15 of the last 20 Australian Derby winners including four that have taken the double, Innocent King (1993), Octagonal (1996), Sky Heights (1999) and Eremein (2005).
The first three horses across the line in the event this year all have strong claims but luck in running could easily decide the outcome.
Luck in running certainly deserted both kiwis Ocean Park and Silent Achiever in the Rosehill Guineas and they will be looking for revenge this afternoon.
They both have excellent credentials however I favour the same finishing order again with Ocean Park having a slight edge over the filly. In just two previous match ups, the record is one a piece with a neck between them either way both times.
Ocean Park (Timeform rated 122) who prefers firmer footing has raced twice in Australia and both times caught the eye.
Stepping up to 2000m in the Rosehill Guineas, Ocean Park was "stoked up" about 800m from home pulling four and five wide around the field to challenge turning for home.
Despite covering additional ground, he battled on strongly and was going home as well as Laser Hawk on the line to just fail by a head.
With a better run this afternoon he rates as the horse to test Laser Hawk and give race rider Glen Boss back to back Australian Derby victories and his fourth Derby overall success having won the 2011 renewal atop Shamrocker, 2004 renewal on Starcraft and the 1999 renewal on Sky Heights.
Crack Kiwi filly Silent Achiever (Timeform rated 118) has carried all before her in New Zealand before coming to Australia. In this her first preparation she has won the Group 2 Waikato Guineas (1600m), Group 2 Avondale Guineas (2100m) and Group 1 New Zealand Derby all against the males.
Her first run in Australia was a cracking effort when close up in third place behind Laser Hawk and Ocean Park in the Rosehill Guineas. She too had little luck tracking Ocean Park and covering plenty of extra ground.
Silent Achiever will also appreciate the larger Randwick course and the fact she has already won over 2400m does give her a slight edge.
The down side is that she will probably have to improve again to beat the boys this afternoon and given she has been in work since November last year there must be a doubt she can do so.
All the same if Laser Hawk gets the right run he looks a great chance to give Gai her first Australian Derby winner and become the fifth three-year-old to take the Rosehill Guineas/Derby double in the last 20 years.
Recommendation
Back Laser Hawk@ [4.2] in the Australian Derby
Big Buck's created history in the BGC Partners Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree by winning his 17th successive race, breaking the modern-day jumps total of Sir Ken......
Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Synchronised heads a maximum field of 40 for the Grand National at Aintree on Saturday......
We caught up with Donald McCain last week to discuss his runners and riders at this week's Aintree festival...
March 28, 2012
In-running Week: Winter Derby yields promising signs
In-running / Neil Munro / 27 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Neil was a keen observer at Lingfield (above) this week
"Cai Shen's premium conditions seem to be when the ground is good to firm, although he has won on good ground."
Neil Munro has a spring in his step as he considers some pointers for the upcoming Flat season as well as one that might return to big fences soon...
I love this time of year. We have just had the thrill of Cheltenham, we have the excitement of the Grand National Aintree meeting coming up, and the flat season is sneaking up on us. The first sign of that was the Winter Derby at Lingfield where we saw one of my in-running list horses for the flat season.
Cai Shen
Cai Shen made his All-Weather debut in the Winter Derby and, despite having a very wide draw, ran really well to go down a close second. Richard Hannon's four-year-old colt is tactically versatile but, with no obvious pace, I thought Jamie Spencer would try to get near the front and dictate from a prominent position. I should have known better as he settled Cai Shen on the outside near the back of the pack. But the colt travelled supremely well, as he always does, despite not taking the final bend very well, and traded at deep odds-on. Overall, he has traded at half his BSP in ten of his 12 races, with four victories. I don't have any issues with him and he will pick up a decent race or two this season. His premium conditions seem to be when the ground is good to firm, although he has won on good ground.
Advice: Back Cai Shen pre-race at BSP and then lay out your stake at half BSP in the run. Put up a further offer to lay at deep odds-on.
Noble Storm
This column studies all forms of racing but my heart will always be with sprinters. For me, nothing is more fulfilling than analysing a sprint handicap. So I was so looking forward to seeing Noble Storm run in the Listed sprint at Lingfield having been off the track for eight months. He loves to try and travel on the pace and Graham Gibbons managed to get him there, but after so long off, he never really settled and was never going to see out the race. He traded shorter but not to half his BSP. Overall, he's hit his mark 24 times in 28 runs so he will throughout the season.
Advice: With a 29% win ratio, I'm happy to back Noble Storm pre-race at BSP and then lay out my stake at half BSP in the run.
Petit Robin
Another to come back from a long lay-off, Petit Robin ran well enough in defeat over hurdles at his favourite track of Newbury. It will be interesting to see if connections head back over the bigger fences as he had quite a serious shoulder injury. But wherever connections go I would be using a back-to-lay strategy for this natural front-runner.
Advice: Back Petit Robin at BSP prior to the race and lay out your stake at half BSP in the run with an additional offer to lay our more at odds-on.
After four days of ups and downs at the Cheltenham Fesitval, Neil Munro reflects on what in-running bettors learned at Prestbury Park......
Neil Munro provides an entertaining account of a race that was run exactly as he thought it would be. He also two profiles a pair of horses for you to add to the in-running portfolio......
Neil Munro identifies seven horses that it could pay to bet on in-play at this year's Cheltenham Festival......
March 27, 2012
Handicappers' Corner: Baker proves the difference in Winter Derby
Handicappers' Corner / Timeform / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Premio Loco ran to a figure of 119 in the Winter Derby
"A figure of 119 is the highest awarded to the Winter Derby winner since the race was introduced in 1998..."
Though the culmination of the all-weather season, it's difficult to see Winter Derby day at Lingfield as anything other than the beginning on the new Flat season given the quality of horses and the promising performances on show. David Johnson takes a look at them from the Timeform ratings perspective...
Winter Flat racing fans were denied the opportunity to see much of George Baker throughout the season after a fall at Wolverhampton in October saw him suffer a broken arm which kept him off the track for over three months, but since his return, he's been regularly reminding them of what they have missed, and there was no greater example of his talents than his ride on Premio Loco in the Winter Derby.
If ever there was an example of a race won and lost in the early part of the race, then this was it. Both Baker and Jamie Spencer, on runner-up Cai Shen, had wide draws to overcome, and with just half a length between them at the line, Baker's decision to be aggressive and take his horse forward into a prominent position was surely crucial, saving ground as well as getting first run in a race that the sectional times confirm was run to suit those ridden prominently.
Premio Loco was rated 122 at his peak in 2010, and it reflects well on his trainer Chris Wall that he is just about as good as ever as an 8-y-o, running to a figure of 119 on Saturday and defying a Group 2 penalty for his success in last year's Park Stakes.
A figure of 119 is the highest awarded to the Winter Derby winner since the race was introduced in 1998 and is marginally higher than what the five-year race standards would suggest.
The runner-up Cai Shen deserves plenty of credit too and is in for a good season, the fact he matched his pre-race rating of 114 suggesting he can build on it when things go more his way. A head behind him was Circumvent who returned to pick of his 3-y-o form in running to 113.
A couple of listed races supported the card and it was Gusto that took the Spring Cup for Richard Hannon. Hannon has brought back Dubawi Gold and Paco Boy in this race in recent times, so it would be surprising if this proves to be the highlight of Gusto's career.
Gusto improved to a figure of 111, the highest awarded to the winner since the race was introduced, but he remains rated behind the third, Bannock (113) whose performance figure of 104+ would surely have been bettered had he not had to race so wide from stall 10. The runner-up Kenny Powers was fit from Dubai and showed much-improved form to earn a rating of 106, finishing strongly from further back than ideal.
The form of the Hever Sprint Stakes looks all the more shaky. There's no doubt Fratellino improved on anything he'd done previously, and he's now rated 111, up 9 lb from 102. But having had the ideal run through, it would be a surprise if he could confirm the form against some of his higher-rated rivals who weren't seen to best effect, notably the fast-finishing second Spirit Quartz (up to 112, bare performance figure of 109+) and the hampered Medicean Man (remains on 115).
The 1m maiden saw Forgotten Hero run out an impressive winner, and he could have a classic trial on his agenda. Sent off odds-on to beat Horris Hill-third Hazaz, he comfortably came home 6 lengths clear of that rival, and though running only to a bare figure of 92+, is now rated 102p.
Over in the States, former Ed McMahon inmate Went The Day Well put himself in line for a crack at the Kentucky Derby with his success in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park.
Representing the same connections as Animal Kingdom, who won the same contest twelve months ago and followed up in the Run For The Roses, Went The Day Well earned a rating of 117, still 7lb behind current favourite, Union Rags.
Race Passes subscribers already enjoy access to our ratings, form & in-play data. And now there's more - we've added a list of Horses In Focus, last 3 runs on the meeting summary & coverage of big races abroad. And all for the same price!
Exciting though it was, The Breeders' Cup promised more than it delivered and needs to look to its laurels. Simon Rowlands considers the event from a rating point of view, in a week which also featured the Melbourne Cup and some good jumps action......
Form rather than hype, substance over style, achievement more than potential. That has long been the Timeform mantra, but this weekend's best Flat action provided an exception. Timeform Flat handicapper David Johnson explains....
It's had its knockers but, with Ascot bathed in autumn sunshine and high-quality fields for all five pattern races, few can argue that British Champions Day was anything but a resounding success. David Johnson reflects on the results from a ratings perspective......
Future Champions Day was the highlight of the racing in Europe this weekend, but, with neither the Middle Park nor Dewhurst producing a commanding winner, it's most unlikely that Timeform's Champion two-year-old was in action. We may, however, still have seen a top-class colt, as David Johnson reveals....
Australian Derby: Strike The Stars to take in Rosehill Guineas en route
News / Timeform / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Blake Shinn: Rides Strike The Stars
"Strike The Stars didn't get the breaks when only seventh behind old nemesis Mosheen in the Randwick Guineas last time."
Trainer Anthony Cummings has said that his three-year-old Strike The Stars will swerve the Doncaster Mile and instead head for the Rosehill Guineas on his way to the Australian Derby...
Cummings confirmed that the Doncaster was always seen a a fall-back for the Savabeel gelding and, with the Australian Guineas runner-up in fine form, the Rosehill Guineas is very much the plan, with the $1.5 million Australian Derby (currently trading at [13.0]) on April 14 the main target.
Rosehill's $2.25 million BMW on April 7, in which he will meet older horses at weight-for-age, is still a possibility and he trades at [18.0] for that race, also over 2400m.
Blake Shinn will take over aboard Strike The Stars when he goes in the middle leg of Sydney's autumn triple crown for three-year-olds on Saturday, last year's Group 3 Gloaming Stakes winner looking for his first victory at the highest level.
Strike The Stars didn't get the breaks when only seventh behind old nemesis Mosheen in the Randwick Guineas last time, the filly having beaten him by three lengths in in the Australian Guineas at Flemington earlier in the month.
Mosheen herself, who is trading as short-priiced favourite for the Australian Oaks and at [24.0] for the same day's Doncaster Handicap, will reportedly attempt to further her claims for either race in the $400,000 Vinery Stud Stakes on April 7.
In other news, Corey Brown will ride Paul Messara's Rekindled Alliance is the Guinease should the horse take his chance.
Last year's winner Sweet Lightning has been taken out of the Lincoln, in which 2010 victor Penitent will now carry top weight at Doncaster on Saturday......
Godolphin's Gamilati has undergone surgery to remove a chip from her near-fore ankle and may now be forced to miss the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 6.......
Though the culmination of the all-weather season, it's difficult to see Winter Derby day at Lingfield as anything other than the beginning on the new Flat season given the quality of horses and the promising performances on show. David Johnson takes a look at them from the Timeform ratings perspective......
March 24, 2012
Timeform Daily: Winter Derby, Saturday, Lingfield 15:25
Race of the Day / Timeform / 23 March 2012 / Leave a Comment Chris Wall's Premio Loco
"Proven Group race performer Premio Loco was narrowly touched off in this race in 2009 and looks sure to give supporters another good run..."
Timeform take a look at the feature race on Saturday, Lingfield's Group 3 Winter Derby run over a mile and a quarter...
Premio Loco was touched off in this contest in 2009. Largely creditable efforts either side of his Group 2 win at Doncaster in September and no reason to think he won't be thereabouts once more.
Black Spirit's last win came in 1m Sandown handicap in summer 2010. Largely held his own in better company since, rounding off with a fourth in Group 3 at Newbury in September and gelded in the interim.
Cai Shen's progress continued in 2011, registering second win of the year when making all in a 1¼m minor event at Doncaster in September. Well worth a try in this grade, but wide draw not ideal.
Circumvent's sole win in 2011 when landing a 9f Goodwood handicap in September, but good second in a listed contest over this C&D in November and no forlorn hope if on top of his game after a break.
Emerald Wilderness has been rejuvenated this winter, winning 3 handicaps over this C&D. Failed to sparkle both tries on a recent jaunt to Dubai, though, and this looks tough on return.
Junoob has been successful twice at up to 1½m at this venue since being claimed from Amy Weaver in December, having something in hand when capturing a listed race last time and not out of this by any means.
Loyalty won 6 times on polytrack in 2011. Good effort from a poor position when third to Junoob in C&D listed race in February, but unable to repeat it last time and this tougher still.
Lyssio Useful form when twice placed in listed races for Peter Schiergen. Matched those efforts when second at Meydan for new yard in January, but below par at that venue since and tried in a hood now.
Our Joe Mac has been resurgent since cheekpieces fitted, winning 1¼m York handicap in August. Not disgraced on return from a spell hurdling when mid-field behind Junoob over C&D last month and visor applied now.
Riggins made most of a drop in the weights over 1m here in November. Ran to a similar level when attempting repeat win in a listed race at Kempton next time, but yet to prove he stays this far.
Suits Me - NR
Myplacelater thrived in 2010, winning 5 times up to 1½m. Better than form figures suggest when mixing it in good company last year and one to consider on first run for Richard Fahey.
Sooraah progressed into a genuine listed performer in 2011 and fine effort when landing a 1m Meydan handicap in February. Below par in Group 3 last time, though, and stamina to prove on first try at 1¼m.
Vivacious Vivienne showed further progress when twice making frame in listed races last term. Promising return when third over an inadequate 1m on polytrack this month and place prospects back at this trip.
Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Premio Loco
2. Myplacelater
3. Cai Shen
Timeform View: Proven Group race performer Premio Loco was narrowly touched off in this race in 2009 and looks sure to give supporters another good run for their money after proving himself as good as ever last term. Myplacelater was better than her form figures suggest last year and also makes the shortlist on her first run for Richard Fahey, alongside Cai Shen and Circumvent.
..............
Racehorses of 2011 is out now and contains essays on the top performers, over 300 photos, Timeform Top 100s and much more. Click HERE to secure your copy.
Timeform run the rule over the Betfair. Don´t Settle For Less Handicap Hurdle at Newbury on Friday......
Timeform bring you a runner-by-runner guide to a fascinating novice chase over two miles and two furlongs at Fontwell on Thursday......
Timeform offer you a runner-by-runner guide to the 14:40 at Haydock this afternoon, a handicap hurdle over two and a half miles......
US Weekend Preview: Castaway sets standard in Sunday's Sunland Derby
News / Simon Rowlands / 23 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
There is some valuable action in the US this weekend
"It remains to be seen if the Southwest Stakes was Castaway's "Derby"."
It is not one of the biggest weekends where the road to the Kentucky Derby on May 5 is concerned - most of the big guns are keeping their powder dry for another day - but there are still plenty of valuable races for punters to go at writes Timeform's Simon Rowlands...
The most valuable of all is the Sunland Derby on Sunday (due off at 00:45 BST, 17:45 local time), a nine-furlong Grade 3 at Sunland Park in New Mexico worth an eye-watering $800,000, for which eight have been declared.
Pick of the octet on Timeform ratings is Castaway, one of two Bob Baffert-trained contenders. Castaway earned a Timeform figure of 115 (9 less than current Derby favourite Union Rags) for winning a division of the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park in February by nearly four lengths from Jake Mo.
So far, so good. But it should be noted that the next nine home in that race could have been covered by the metaphorical horse blanket, and that the early signs are not especially encouraging that the form will hold up.
It was also a marked step up by Castaway on the form which had seen him take six starts before getting off the mark. It remains to be seen if the Southwest Stakes was Castaway's "Derby".
A degree of caution should also apply to the chance of Daddy Nose Best, next in on Timeform ratings at 110. His form is solid - he has generally kept good company and run his race - but the best of it has all come on turf and synthetic surfaces. The Sunland Derby will be run on dirt.
That will not pose a problem for the Todd Pletcher-trained Ender Knievel, who looks a very interesting runner up in class.
The son of Distorted Humor was second to ascendant star Thunder Moccasin in one of the hottest recent maidens in the US at Gulfstream at Christmas before winning a similar contest there by nearly eight lengths in February.
Ender Knievel looks highly likely to improve - possibly a great deal - on his Timeform rating of 101 and is taken to turn over some more exposed rivals.
Highlight of Turfway Park's Saturday card is the $500,000 Vinery Spiral Stakes (due off 22:45 BST, 17:45 local time), another Grade 3 over nine furlongs, this time run on a synthetic surface.
There is more quantity than quality in this, given the money on offer, and Mr. Prankster is the one horse of 12 to have posted a performance up to winning in this sort of grade already.
That effort - worth a Timeform figure of 110 - came when he whipped some useful rivals at the track last month by seven and a half lengths and more. Mr. Prankster has since bombed out in a more valuable contest, again at the course, but that clearly was not his running.
The second that day, Ill Conceived (Timeform rating of 105), should be a threat to Mr. Prankster again but looks a step down on Grade 3 calibre overall.
Much of the interest will centre on the lightly-raced pair Heavy Breathing (won both starts, trained by Todd Pletcher) and Went The Day Well (ready winner of a Gulfstream maiden last time for Graham Motion).
But, promising though they are, they still have quite a bit to prove at this level and in the hustle and bustle of a double-figure field, and their presence could well ensure that Mr. Prankster goes off a bigger price than he should.
Recommendations:
1 pt win Ender Knievel, Sunland Derby (Sunday)
1 pt win Mr. Prankster, Vinery Spiral Stakes (Saturday).
John Oxx is relishing the prospect of a new Flat season getting under way - and is confident in the strength and depth of his current string....
With just a week until the British Flat Turf season gets underway, Timeform look ahead to a weekend of racing that includes the Group 3 Winter Derby on the all-weather......
Racing manager David Redvers believes it may be wise to sidestep the 2000 Guineas with Harbour Watch following the colt's latest setback....
March 19, 2012
Road to the Kentucky Derby: The Churchill Downs dozen
World Racing / Timeform / 19 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Who will you side with on May 5?
"Union Rags has been an impressive winner of 4 of 5 starts, beating News Pending by easy 4 lengths in G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream in February..."
Timeform bring you their latest update on the leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 5...
UNION RAGS Timeform Rating 124p, Trainer M Matz
Impressive winner of 4 of 5 starts, beating News Pending by easy 4 lengths in G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream in February, and is the top-rated 3-y-o male in North America. Wide throughout and probably unlucky in only defeat, at Breeders' Cup. Sprinting/miling pedigree but already stays 8.5f. May next run in 9f Florida Derby back at Gulfstream on March 31.
HANSEN Timeform Rating 123, Trainer M Maker
Won all 3 starts at 2 yrs, culminating in narrow defeat of Union Rags in Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Back to best when landing G3 Gotham at Aqueduct in March comfortably by 3 lengths from My Adonis, giving weight all round. Front-runner prior to last time, when tracked until going on 2f out. May next take in 9f Wood Memorial (a race his sire Tapit won, though dam was a sprinter) at Aqueduct on April 7.
CREATIVE CAUSE Timeform Rating 121, Trainer M Harrington
Winner of 4 of 7 starts, notably G1 Norfolk at Santa Anita at 2 yrs, when also third to Hansen and Union Rags in Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Back to best when giving weight and beating to Bodemeister in G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita in March. Son of Giant's Causeway and better prospects than some of staying beyond 8.5f. May next contest Santa Anita Derby on April 7.
SECRET CIRCLE Timeform Rating 121, Trainer B Baffert
Fast juvenile, unbeaten in 3 starts, notably Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint. Stretched out to around 8f this year, beaten narrowly on first occasion and winning narrowly at Oaklawn in G3 Southwest and G2 Rebel since. Gave weight all round when holding Optimizer by three-quarters of a length last time. Some encouragement from breeding that he could stay further (sire gained biggest win at 9.5f). Could be aimed at G1 Arkansas Derby, again at Oaklawn, on April 14.
GEMOLOGIST Timeform Rating 119p, Trainer T Pletcher
Unbeaten in 3 starts at 2 yrs, notably G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes over 8.5f at Churchill Downs, and one this year. Beat Currency Swap impressively by 7 lengths in allowance at Gulfstream in March. Son of Tiznow, and seems a likely stayer at 10f in same colours as 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver. Likely to return to Graded company in G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 7.
OPTIMIZER Timeform Rating 117, Trainer D Lukas
Maiden at Saratoga at 2 yrs has been sole win from 8 starts, but has kept good company, and made eye-catching late headway when close second to Secret Circle in G2 Rebel at Oaklawn last time (rated 4 lb better than result). Son of 12f Breeders' Cup Turf winner English Channel, and should be suited by at least 10f himself. Needs much greater earnings to make Kentucky Derby field, and may take on Secret Circle again in G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn on April 14.
EL PADRINO Timeform Rating 116, Trainer T Pletcher
Won 1 from 3 as a juvenile and both starts this year, notably G2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds last time by nose from Mark Valeski. Son of Kentucky Derby fourth Pulpit and shapes as if will stay beyond 9f himself. May reportedly clash with Union Rags in Florida Derby next.
HOWE GREAT Timeform Rating 116, Trainer G Motion
Unbeaten in 4 runs since debut second, defeating Dullahan by length in G3 Palm Beach at Gulfstream last time, in March. Best efforts on turf to date. Son of smart Japanese miler Hat Trick but has already shown stays 9f. May next take in G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 14, as did connections' Animal Kingdom on way to Kentucky Derby success in 2011.
BODEMEISTER Timeform Rating 115, Trainer B Baffert
All 3 runs at Santa Anita, debuting in January then winning maiden by over 9 lengths. Ran Creative Cause (who conceded 5 lbs) to three-quarters of a length in G2 San Felipe in March. Son of Belmont winner Empire Maker and smart US 2-y-o Untouched Talent, and seems a likely stayer at beyond 8.5f.
DULLAHAN Timeform Rating 115p, Trainer D Romans
Only win from 6 appearances at 2 yrs was in G1 Futurity at Keeneland by three-quarters of a length from Majestic City. Fourth to Hansen in Breeders' Cup Juvenile on final outing. Encouraging length second to Howe Great in G3 Palm Beach at Gulfstream on return on turf in March, staying on well. Half-brother to a Kentucky Derby winner in Mine That Bird and looks open to improvement at further than 9f. Being aimed at G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 14.
ALPHA Timeform Rating 113, Trainer K McLaughlin
Won 1 out of 3 at 2 yrs and both this term, most recently G3 Withers at Aqueduct in February by three-and-a-quarter lengths from Speightscity. Behind Union Rags the two times they met, though presumably wasn't himself in Breeders' Cup. By Bernardini, out of 11.5f winner from the family of Swain, and seems near certain to stay the 10f Derby distance, having so far tried no further than 8.5f. Owned by Godolphin. Being aimed at Florida Derby on March 31 or G2 Louisiana Derby day after.
PROSPECTIVE Timeform Rating 113, Trainer M Casse
Has won 4 of 7 starts, notably G2 Tampa Bay Derby last time (when first-time blinkered) by three-quarters of a length from Golden Ticket. Son of Malibu Moon, and has yet to try further than 8.5f. May next take in Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 7.
Kentucky Derby Diary:
Saturday March 24: G3 Spiral Stakes, Turfway Park 9f;
Sunday March 25: G3 Sunland Derby 9f;
Saturday March 31: G1 Florida Derby, Gulfstream 9f.
The records keep tumbling for crack filly Mosheen who overcame difficulties last Saturday to win the G1 Randwick Guineas over 1600m at headquarters......
So You Think is set to be among the field for the Dubai World Cup at Meydan on Saturday March 31.......
Plenty of runners in Ireland this Sunday and Timeform's Irish team have win selections from Limerick and Navan....
March 8, 2012
Epsom Derby 2012 News: RP Trophy hero Camelot heads entry of 143
News / Timeform / 08 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
The unbeaten Camelot
"Last season's Racing Post Trophy, rated 117P by Timeform, winner is one of 25 possible contenders for Aidan O'Brien..."
Camelot heads 143 colts remaining in the Investec Derby following the first forfeit stage for the premier Classic at Epsom on June 2.
Last season's Racing Post Trophy winner (Timeform rated 117P), is one of 25 possible contenders for Aidan O'Brien, who can also call upon Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf winner Wrote (118p) and Beresford Stakes scorer David Livingston (115).
John Oxx, like O'Brien twice successful in the Derby, has Born To Sea (108p) among his five entries.
The Invincible Spirit colt, runner-up in the Killavullan Stakes at Leopardstown on his final juvenile start, is a half-brother to two Derby heroes in Galileo and Oxx's Sea The Stars.
Sir Henry Cecil's six contenders include Noble Mission (80p), second on his only start to date at Yarmouth and full brother to the stable's world champion Frankel.
Marcus Tregoning, meanwhile, is dreaming of Cavaleiro (98), a son of his 2006 Derby winner Sir Percy, emulating his sire.
The Lambourn trainer has high hopes after Cavaleiro ended a busy two-year-old campaign with victory in the Haynes, Hanson & Clark Conditions Stakes in September.
The Newbury contest has yielded numerous clues for the Derby over the years, with Henbit and Shergar having won both races, while Shahrastani and Authorized were both placed en route to Classic glory at Epsom.
Tregoning said: "We have obviously got quite a way to go with Cavaleiro before the Derby but we will run him in a trial and take it from there.
"He's had plenty of experience as a two-year-old and won his latest two starts, which was good. He's going to have to step up considerably on his next start and we are thinking about either the Lingfield Derby Trial, Chester or Sandown.
"I also haven't ruled out the possibility of running him in the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket, which might suit him.
"Physically, he has done very well over the winter and we are very pleased with him on that score. He's quite a laid-back horse, who keeps finding a bit, so we are hopeful that he can continue to progress.
"It's very exciting for Sir Percy. He did very well last year and the quality of the mares that he is receiving is getting better. It's early days for him as a stallion but we have been very pleased for him. We were very lucky to have him and he was a wonderful flag-bearer - hopefully his progeny can continue that success."
Camelot currently heads the betting for the Epsom Derby at [3.6] on June 2, while he also fills the same position for the 2000 Guineas on May 5 at [3.9].
...........
Click HERE to get the latest issue of the Timeform Black Book, featuring ratings for all 27 Cheltenham Festival races, plus those for Imperial Cup weekend!
Godolphin has 22 declared runners, including one reserve, for Super Saturday at Meydan on March 10 - the most valuable raceday in the UAE outside of Dubai World Cup night......
Invictus has emerged as a doubtful runner in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham......
The world's best sprinter Black Caviar looks likely to spend a month in the headquarters of British racing, Newmarket, before her much-anticipated UK debut in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot......
February 27, 2012
Kentucky Derby: Union Rags now clear favourite for May classic
News / Timeform / 27 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Union Rags during a workout
"Timeform has increased Union Rags' rating from 123 to 124..."
Union Rags has shortened markedly in the ante-post betting for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 5, following his authoritative success in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Sunday.
The Michael Matz-trained colt is [4.1] from around [10.0] on Betfair for the Kentucky Derby, with a double-figure or bigger price on offer about all other named contenders.
Union Rags, winner of four of his five races, accounted for News Pending comfortably by four lengths, with the previously unbeaten Discreet Dancer fading into third. The much-touted Algorithms was a late scratch due to a setback.
Timeform has increased Union Rags' rating from 123 to 124, which puts him 6 lb and more ahead of his likely rivals and just 2 lb behind the average rating achieved by Kentucky Derby winners in the last five years.
Matz, who won the big one in 2006 with Barbaro, indicated that he was likely to aim Union Rags at the $1 million Grade 1 Florida Derby, over 9 furlongs and back at Gulfstream, on March 31.
In the meantime, look out for Timeform's new "Road To The Kentucky Derby" feature, with rolling biographies of the leading contenders, starting on these pages later this week.
With opposition to reigning champion Quevega thin on the ground, Emma Lavelle is keen to run Kentford Grey Lady in the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle at Cheltenham......
Timeform review a weekend featuring a win for Nacarat in the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton alongside a whole host of Cheltenham pointers......
Kauto Star is reported to be in tremendous shape ahead of his bid for a third Cheltenham Gold Cup success on Friday February 16....
February 13, 2012
Premier League News: Wolves axe McCarthy after derby loss
Premier League / Michael Lintorn / 13 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Mick McCarthy paid the price for a 5-1 Black Country derby defeat
"Whoever inherits the role has far from an impossible task leading them to safety, with only goal difference following the severity of Sunday’s reverse putting them below QPR and Blackburn in 18th."
Steve Bruce is being linked with a speedy return to management after Wolves decided to sack Mick McCarthy in the aftermath of their 5-1 home hammering against neighbours West Brom...
He led them to promotion and then guided them to survival twice, but Wolves' heavy home defeat to rivals West Brom saw the strugglers finally lose faith with Mick McCarthy, prompting his dismissal on Monday morning.
Steve Bruce is the early frontrunner at [4.0] in Betfair's next manager market, with Neil Warnock and Alan Curbishley also featuring prominently.
Whoever inherits the role faces far from an impossible task leading them to safety, with only goal difference following the severity of Sunday's reverse putting them below QPR and Blackburn in 18th, and just four of the top seven left to play, three of those at Molineux. They are [1.77] to go down.
Given that McCarthy has kept Wolves up from more worrying positions in the past, it is arguable that the inflictors of Sunday's humiliation rather than the impact that it will have on their chances of beating the drop is the reason that he lost his job.
It definitely doesn't appear as though he has been axed because there is someone infinitely better currently out of work, as the names currently being mentioned indicate.
Of Bruce, Warnock and Curbishley, this writer would probably plump for the latter, who hasn't been relegated this century, has achieved more top-half Premier League finishes than the other two combined and has no track record for failure.
The question that Wolves will be asking however is how significant it is that the former Charlton and West Ham boss hasn't been employed for close to three-and-a-half years, and whether it would be too big a gamble to hire someone who has been out of work for so long.
Meanwhile, those who love a long shot can find odds of [100.0] on McCarthy succeeding Fabio Capello as England manager, but surely proud Irishman that he is, he wouldn't consider the gig even in the unlikely event that he was offered it...
When football should have been the main talking point, it was an incident at Old Trafford that made the headlines. Ralph Ellis explains why saying sorry, in most instances, doesn't usually work....
There were huge prizes up for grabs on Betfair if you correctly called the scorelines of the games involving Tottenham, Norwich, Everton, Brighton and Barcelona......
City won at Villa Park as Wolves were humilated at home by West Brom, a game that proved to be Mick McCarthy's last in charge......
October 1, 2011
Lee Dixon: Adebayor amongst the many scorers in north London derby
Premier League / Lee Dixon / 01 October 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Revenge is a dish best served cold. Emmanuel Adebayor will be fired up against his old club.
"I wouldn’t be too surprised if this finished 2-2 which is a 15.0 shot but I’m going to be a little bit conservative here and just go with over 3.5 goals instead at [2.7] as this really is one of those matches that could be more like a game out of the NBA than the Premier League and any big scoreline is possible."
Lee Dixon thinks history suggests a currently out-of-form Arsenal can still salvage something from a match where a goal glut will once again be on the cards.
I challenge you readers to tell me when was the last time you saw Tottenham as short as [2.2] to beat Arsenal at any ground, in any competition.
I certainly can't remember when that was but I can't really argue with that quote about the home win. There's no doubting that at this moment in time that Spurs look a far better team than their bitter rivals.
Match Odds
As a player I never had any fear going into this fixture. That came from ending up on the winning side a lot more often than the losing one and having the belief that somehow we'd always find a way to win, or at least not lose. Does the current crop of Arsenal players possess that same belief?
Maybe not and, having been at the Emirates on Wednesday night for the Olympiakos match I can say I don't have too much belief of my own in the current back five. They were all at sea for most of the match and at times looked like they'd only just met each other for the first time on the way to the ground.
Yet Opta tell us that, since Harry Redknapp joined Tottenham, Spurs have won two, drawn three and lost two of the seven meetings in all competitions against Arsenal. It's a stat to respect and, with the prices a little too influenced by short-term rather than long-term form, I'm going to lay Tottenham.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
13 goals were scored in 270 minutes of football played between these two last year, plus a further three in extra-time of Arsenal's 4-1 win at White Hart Lane in the Carling Cup clash. There's just something about this fixture that makes the net bulge.
Opta remind us that Tottenham have kept just one clean sheet in their last 31 matches in all competitions against the Gunners so we have to assume Arsenal will score at least once and I've talked already about how the Gunners' defence looks anything but solid.
I wouldn't be too surprised if this finished 2-2 which is a [15.0] shot but I'm going to be a little bit conservative here and just go with over 3.5 goals instead at [2.7] as this really is one of those matches that could be more like a game out of the NBA than the Premier League and any big scoreline is possible.
Penalty Taken?
Of the 16 goals scored last season between these two, four came from the penalty spot. It's easy to see how in a match like this an adrenaline-fuelled defender can make a clumsy tackle and the ref is pointing to the spot before he knows it. Back a penalty to be taken at [3.3].
To Score
History has a habit of repeating itself. At the start of each spell Emmanuel Adebayor has had at Arsenal, Manchester City, Real Madrid and Spurs he has looked focused, hungry and extremely dangerous, at times unplayable. He's also got plenty of goals at the start of his time with each of those clubs before something happening that has upset him.
We can't trust him as a long-term goalscorer so I'd stay well clear of any fancy prices on him topping the tables come May. But as a short-term prospect he represents excellent value at around [2.7] to get on the scoresheet here. Remember how fired up he was when City beat Arsenal at Eastlands (as it then was) a couple of years ago?.
He scored eight goals in nine games in all competitions for Arsenal against Spurs so maybe a north London derby brings out the best in him, irrespective of who he's playing for. Back him to keep on scoring.
Recommended Bets:
Lay Tottenham against Arsenal @ [2.2]
Back Over 3.5 goals @ [2.7]
Back a penalty to be taken @ [3.3]
Back Emmanuel Adebayor to score @ [2.7]
Manchester's Reds leave it late before securing home while City show they don't need Carlos with thumping win. Meanwhile, Kenny is king on Merseyside......
Third visits last in Sunday's first match of the day and all the stats in the world point towards a comfortable Chelsea win. We simply can't ignore them, says Lee Dixon....
Tactics, team selection, systems and momentum will all play a huge part in the outcome of this match. Lets' make some money from guessing how all these factors will pan out, says Michael Cox....
June 26, 2011
Timeform Daily: The Irish Derby, Sunday 15:50, the Curragh
Race of the Day / Timeform / 25 June 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Can Carlton House gain compensation for his Epsom defeat?
"Carlton House may have finished behind Treasure Beach at Epsom but he was poorly placed in relation to that rival and is a confident selection to reverse those placings."
Epsom Derby second and third Treasure Beach and Carlton House are set to renew rivalry at the Curragh on Sunday, but who will come out on top?...
Carlton House is an exciting prospect who was too strong for Seville in the Dante before finishing third in Epsom Derby, showing potent turn of foot 3f out but unable to sustain that effort. Compensation awaits.
Dunboyne Express won twice at 2 yrs, including runaway victory in Group 3 here only try on ground softer than good. Overall level of form some way off required standard though, and this trip is an unknown.
Memphis Tennessee won AW maiden in 2010 and built on that good impression in no uncertain terms this year, fourth in Derby last time under well-judged ride. Hard to see him reversing placings with Carlton House.
Native Khan landed Craven Stakes before creditable efforts in 2000 Guineas (third to Frankel) and Derby (fifth to Pour Moi). Will probably continue to come up short at highest level but could get placed.
Notable Graduate landed odds in maiden at Tipperary and minor event at Gowran in April/May. Unsuited by test of speed when only second last time and could go well at a price. Attitude looks a major asset.
Roderic O'Connor usually goes from the front and bounced back to his 2-y-o form when winning the Irish 2000 Guineas under an astute ride, but didn't see out 10.5f in France last time and now races over even further.
Seville was fast-tracked to top table when runner-up in Racing Post Trophy last backend. Behind Carlton House in Dante and then ran no sort of race at Epsom, but could bounce back on more galloping track.
Treasure Beach took Chester Vase on return (beat Nathaniel) and then fared best of this field in the Epsom Derby, beaten only by a head. Enjoyed a tactical advantage over the third that day, however.
Timeform 1-2-3
1. Carlton House
2. Seville
3. Notable Graduate
Timeform's View: Carlton House may have finished behind Treasure Beach at Epsom but he was poorly placed in relation to that rival and is a confident selection to reverse those placings. Aidan O'Brien's best chance could be Seville, who clearly wasn't himself at Epsom but chased home Carlton House earlier in the campaign, while at bigger odds Notable Graduate should give a good account if it becomes a slog.
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