BNP Paribas Masters 2014 Betting: Raonic's superb tie break form to continue against Berdych

"Each of their last two meetings featured a set one tie break and unless one succumbs to scoreboard pressure or has a poor service game it seems likely again today."

Back Raonic to win set one 7-6 at 6.5n/a

It's semi final Saturday at the BNP Paribas Masters and after landing a big-priced winner yesterday, Sean Calvert is back with his selections for today...

It was a profitable day of tennis betting on Friday at the BNP Paribas Masters nice and early when Kevin Anderson won the opener of his match against Tomas Berdych.

My 3.7511/4 chance landed when Anderson won set one on the tie break and that proved to be the right wager to side with the South African in, as he rather predictably went on to lose from a break up in the decider.

That meant that Berdych qualified for the World Tour Finals and also qualified on the day were Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic, who surprisingly defeated Roger Federer in straight sets.

We start at 1.30pm UK time on Saturday, with an intriguing fourth career meeting between Berdych and Raonic.

This pair met here last year in the third round, when Berdych was a 7-6, 6-4 winner, but Raonic was a winner in the two before that and is a 1.845/6 favourite today.

Both players should be a fair bit more relaxed today having qualified for the O2 and as the odds suggest it's a tight one to call, with the winner likely to be the one who serves the better.

Raonic was very good yesterday against Federer in arguably the performance of his career, hitting 21 aces and winning 65 percent of points on his second serve - stats that will surely see him win today if he manages to repeat them.

Berdych has been scratchy all week, doing just enough each round to get through and not impressing in any of them, so I'm leaning towards the Canadian in this one.

The Czech may well show better form with the pressure of O2 qualification behind him though and it could pay to go with a tie break opening set here at a bigger price.

Raonic is much more likely to win it if it does reach a breaker, with Berdych weighing in with a really poor 9-16 (36%) win mark in tie breaks this year and he's lost the two he's played in Bercy this week.

Milos has been very good in breakers this week, winning all three and holding a 39-12 (76%) win mark in them in 2014.

Each of their last two meetings featured a set one tie break and unless one succumbs to scoreboard pressure or has a poor service game it seems likely again today.

The 6.5n/a that's available about a 7-6 set one win for Raonic looks the one here, or the 1.845/6 about the Canadian winning for more circumspect punters is the other option.

Recommended Bet
Back Raonic to win set one 7-6 at 6.5n/a

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Racing News: Our Conor set for summer break

Triumph Hurdle hero Our Conor will head off on his summer break after trainer Dessie Hughes opted to skip an intended run in Saturday's AES Champion Four Year Old Hurdle at Punchestown...

Favourite with some for next season's Champion Hurdle, Our Conor would have faced very testing conditions in the Grade One heat and Hughes was not keen to give his stable star a hard race.

With his stunning Cheltenham display still fresh in the memory, Our Conor, rated 165p by Timeform, will now enjoy a well-deserved holiday.

"It was very deep there yesterday, it's rained again and it will rain some more," said Hughes.

"There's no need to run him, he doesn't need to prove anything so he'll go out to grass now.

"I've no real plan for next year, I imagine he'll have a run on the Flat first somewhere.

"It's no coincidence that his best performance came at Cheltenham, which is the best ground he's raced on. His worst performance came at Listowel when he was well beaten by Inis Mean and that was the worst ground he'd raced on."

Hughes also had a bit of a setback regarding the Bet365 Gold Cup as Deal Done missed the cut for the big race.

The trainer added: "I declared Deal Done because he loves good ground and it will be nice at Sandown. He's gone over there but he didn't get in, it's only 20 runners now and it used to be 25."

Punchestown Race Cards only £2 at timeform.com! 

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Australian Derby Preview: Gai to break Derby duck?

News / Gary Crispe / 12 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Randwick stages the Australian Derby on Saturday.

"If Laser Hawk gets the right run he looks a great chance to give Gai her first Australian Derby winner and become the fifth three-year-old to take the Rosehill Guineas/Derby double in the last 20 years..."

It is hard to imagine champion trainer Gai Waterhouse has never won the Group 1 Australian Derby (Saturday, BST 06:35) on her home turf at Randwick, but that could all change this afternoon...

Waterhouse has saddled up three Derby placegetters in her short training career to date, Descarado (2nd in 2010), Tuesday Joy (3rd in 2007) and Carnegie Express (2nd in 2002) but she has probably never had a better opportunity to ring up number one.

Fresh from her fourth Golden Slipper win last week with Pierro, Waterhouse will have two three-year-olds in the Blue Riband event over 2400m; Rosehill Guineas winner Laser Hawk and useful type Satirical Boy.

However, ratings riser Laser Hawk is clearly the better chance of the two. Lightly raced, he has won four of his five race starts, his most recent a hard fought win in the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas over 2000m, defeating Kiwi gallopers Ocean Park and Silent Achiever.

That pair oppose him again this afternoon but Laser Hawk appeals as the likely victor again.

Laser Hawk has made rapid improvement in three runs this campaign, taking his Timeform rating to a new level of 123p in the Rosehill Guineas. That followed a 101 rating on resumption at Rosehill in Benchmark 80 company and a 117 when narrowly defeated by crack filly Mosheen in the Group 1 Randwick Guineas over 1600m.

Not only does Laser Hawk have further capacity for improvement but he has a very adaptable running style that could see him lead if necessary, given the race, on paper at least, looks devoid of any recognised pace.

There is no doubt the Rosehill Guineas is the key lead up race for this afternoon's Derby. Historically the Rosehill Guineas has provided 15 of the last 20 Australian Derby winners including four that have taken the double, Innocent King (1993), Octagonal (1996), Sky Heights (1999) and Eremein (2005).

The first three horses across the line in the event this year all have strong claims but luck in running could easily decide the outcome.

Luck in running certainly deserted both kiwis Ocean Park and Silent Achiever in the Rosehill Guineas and they will be looking for revenge this afternoon.

They both have excellent credentials however I favour the same finishing order again with Ocean Park having a slight edge over the filly. In just two previous match ups, the record is one a piece with a neck between them either way both times.

Ocean Park (Timeform rated 122) who prefers firmer footing has raced twice in Australia and both times caught the eye.

Stepping up to 2000m in the Rosehill Guineas, Ocean Park was "stoked up" about 800m from home pulling four and five wide around the field to challenge turning for home.

Despite covering additional ground, he battled on strongly and was going home as well as Laser Hawk on the line to just fail by a head.

With a better run this afternoon he rates as the horse to test Laser Hawk and give race rider Glen Boss back to back Australian Derby victories and his fourth Derby overall success having won the 2011 renewal atop Shamrocker, 2004 renewal on Starcraft and the 1999 renewal on Sky Heights.

Crack Kiwi filly Silent Achiever (Timeform rated 118) has carried all before her in New Zealand before coming to Australia. In this her first preparation she has won the Group 2 Waikato Guineas (1600m), Group 2 Avondale Guineas (2100m) and Group 1 New Zealand Derby all against the males.

Her first run in Australia was a cracking effort when close up in third place behind Laser Hawk and Ocean Park in the Rosehill Guineas. She too had little luck tracking Ocean Park and covering plenty of extra ground.

Silent Achiever will also appreciate the larger Randwick course and the fact she has already won over 2400m does give her a slight edge.

The down side is that she will probably have to improve again to beat the boys this afternoon and given she has been in work since November last year there must be a doubt she can do so.

All the same if Laser Hawk gets the right run he looks a great chance to give Gai her first Australian Derby winner and become the fifth three-year-old to take the Rosehill Guineas/Derby double in the last 20 years.

Recommendation
Back Laser Hawk@ [4.2] in the Australian Derby

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Super Bowl Betting: New York can break Patriots hearts again

NFL / Andy Richmond / 05 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Brady v Manning - we can't wait!

"Manning without doubt has the momentum in terms of performance and, if the Patriots don’t get pressure on him, the New England secondary is in for a long and tempestuous day."

Andy Richmond is relishing the elite quarter-back duel that Sunday night's Super Bowl will deliver. But, as our man explains, there's far more to New England Patriots v New York Giants than that...

Superbowl XLVI
New England Patriots v New York Giants
Sunday February 5
Live on SKY Sports 1 & HD1 22:30 - KO 23:30

Match odds: New England [1.74] New York Giants [2.34]

"The four biggest holiday celebrations in the United States are Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year's Day and the Super Bowl." - The Washington Post.

Much of the talk and analysis around Super Bowl XLVI has focused on the last time these two met four years ago in Super Bowl XLII. But, as I wrote in an earlier column this week, the game that provides a better template for this contest is the match-up from week nine.

Plenty of theories abound about how the Patriots and Giants can win the game. We know that the Giants need to exert pressure on Tom Brady, how dangerous the Patriots two tight-ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are, that we have two of the best slot receivers in the game today in Victor Cruz and Wes Welker taking part, and that the Patriots secondary has been both porous and poor all year. But what about the other elements which could prove game changing?

Both sides are known as primarily passing teams, but I think that both the Patriots and the Giants will attempt to run the ball a little more than they have this season. The Patriots take to the air for 59.5 percent of their offensive plays, but they might try a few more running plays to test the Giants' run-stopping ability. The Giants give up 121.6 rushing yards per game and allow 4.5 yards per run. From the no-huddle, Brady might try more shotgun handoffs to BenJarvus Green-Ellis and the other running backs. If it works, the Pats might have a more balanced offense than they've shown this season. The Giants run game had a horrible season but both Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs have got better and better in the post season. There's excitement about the triumvirate of New York wide receivers but the Giants run game must not be underestimated. It will prove vital in a foil to the passing game.

Tom Brady tossed two interceptions in that week nine loss to the Giants and New York scored 10 points off those turnovers. Since then Brady has taken more care of the football and only been picked off twice. Here he's bound to face the Giants "big nickel" defence again. With the Giants thin at linebacker they often replace a linebacker with a third safety in Deon Grant; that scheme is called a "big nickel" and they use it because it matches up well with all the Patriots two tight-end sets and shutting them down would give the Giants a significant advantage.

I've already mentioned the Giants pass-rush but how are the Patriots going to counteract the awesome foursome? For Bill O'Brien, the Patriots offensive coordinator, this is his biggest concern as the Giants had 34 sacks using four or fewer defenders. I suspect that O'Brien will attempt to slow down the pass rush by throwing lots of screens and tire the Giants defence out by keeping them on the field with plenty of no-huddle offence, a tactic that Brady is particularly adept at running. This would also prove a viable tactic to keep the more explosive Giants offence off the field.

I love the head to head between the two quarterbacks Tom Brady and Eli Manning, both of whom can be put in the elite category. Brady needs to bounce back from a disappointing AFC Championship Game, while Manning has grown throughout the season. Brady will be going for his fourth Super Bowl ring, while Manning will be attempting to gain his second. If Brady is to solve the Giants' defence he'll need Rob Gronkowski to be fully healthy (unlikely) and the running game to give him something. He must also avoid throwing interceptions.

Manning without doubt has the momentum in terms of performance and, if the Patriots don't get pressure on him, the New England secondary is in for a long and tempestuous day.

The Giants had a regular season record of 9-7 against the Patriots' 13-3. But the New York schedule was savage - New Orleans, New England, NY Jets, Atlanta, Dallas twice, San Francisco twice and Green Bay twice - and they managed to go 8-2 in those ten games. New England struggled against quality opposition.

There are plenty of notable parts of this chess game that both teams need to make function but it may be some of the lesser moves that decide this one. There is little between the teams and for that reason I'll have to side with the Giants to maintain their hold over the Patriots. They can gain another Super Bowl victory in a year which has great symmetry with their previous run at the Lombardi Trophy four years ago.

Recommended Bet

Back New York Giants +3.5 @ [1.74] or better

There are a bewildering amount of markets available to Betfair punters looking for a wager on this year's Super Bowl. Let Andy Richmond lead you through a few suggested bets for Sunday night's showpiece...

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Andy Richmond has poured over the stats to bring you these insights on Sunday night's big game......

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Timeform Irish 1-2-3 Tips: Gander can break his duck at Clonmel‏

Tipping / Billy Nash / 26 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Davy Russell can score on God's County in the last at Clonmel

"Galloping Gander is clearly going the right way over hurdles and may not need to improve much more to win the two-and-a-half mile maiden hurdle at 19:45."

A seven-race card at Clonmel gets underway at 17:35 and we have come up with three more bets...

Murindo nearly sprang a big surprise at Limerick two starts back when he we was beaten less than half a length into third by Captainofthefleet in a maiden at just short of this trip. On the back of that effort, Keagen Latham's mount was sent off at a single figure price in the race won by Leblon here last time, but failed to see out the longer trip having held every chance turning for home. The drop back to ten furlongs will suit Murindo and he won't get many better chances of winning a maiden than this.

Galloping Gander is clearly going the right way over hurdles and may not need to improve much more to win the two-and-a-half mile maiden hurdle at 19:45. He showed this trip holds no fears for him when third of 25 to Bullock Harbour at Punchestown last time and the runner-up that night, Seader, was only just touched off in a similar contest last night. John O'Shea has his horses in terrific order at the moment and Galloping Gander is taken to account for Ruby Walsh's ride Luck Pennie.

God's County really caught the eye under an unenterprising ride from Katie Walsh here last month, coming from a long way back to finish a never-nearer fifth in the race won by Schinkel, and that form looks a bit better now than it did at the time. Admittedly, God's Country still has plenty to find to trouble the likes of Eyre Apparent and Presenting Nama here but Ted Walsh's gelding was a four-time winner on the Flat in France (for John Hammond), is open to improvement and is reunited with the in-form Davy Russell.

Back Murindo in the 18:05 at Clonmel
Back Galloping Gander in the 19:45 at Clonmel
Back God's County in the 20:50 at Clonmel

Even I can't justify combining my morning and afternoon workloads by the doing a Placepot perm for the threadbare Brighton card, so Sandown it is....

Timeform go through the field for this very strong looking Group 3......

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Follow The Money: Can Thomas break his duck for Daddy?

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 01 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Follow the money to Southwell and Taunton

"Ranjobaie has been steadily backed this morning from [5.2] in to [3.9]."

Today's follow the money market movers come from the meetings at Taunton and Southwell.

We start with the opener at Taunton, the Conditional Jockeys handicap hurdle at 13:50, where Normally has been supported from an early price of [15.5] in to [6.8]. Trainer John Flint has elected to put up his youngest son, Thomas, and whilst brother Rhys has been making many of the headlines, Thomas made a few of his own when, on his penultimate ride back in October and looking all over the winner (at [1.01]), he fell at the last on board No To Trident. That would have been a lesson well learnt if only for the telling off Thomas received in full view of the TV Cameras from his father! Dropped in class and relatively lightly raced, Normally is unexposed and from a stable more than capable of getting one ready, the money may mean that Thomas breaks his duck today.

In the 14.20 at the same track, a Novice Chase, Ranjobaie has been steadily backed this morning from [5.2] in to [3.9]. Admittedly, Ranjobaie has had the odd "four faults" over both hurdles and the larger obstacles but there was much to like about his last run when he seemed to be going best until tiring late on in the heavy going at Plumpton. With less testing ground today and the Venetia Williams stable enjoying four winners in the last week, it will not take too much improvement from Ranjobaie for the gelding to land the spoils today.

Our final mover is the day's negative in the shape of Double Duchess, in the 16:30 at Southwell, who has been on the drift from a low of [1.91] out to [3.2]. With a record of two from two over course and distance and just a 6lb penalty to shoulder for last week's facile win by nine length, it is difficult to fathom the weakness of Double Duchess, save the fact that he is up against one from the in form Mark Johnson stable (first run in a handicap), plus two other course winners so Paul D'Arcy's charge may not be able to dominate this field as he did last time.

Recommended bets:

Back Normally @ [6.8 ] Taunton 13.50
Back Ranjobaie @ [3.9] Taunton 14.20
Lay Double Duchess @ [3.2] Southwell 16.30

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