NFL 
/ Andy Richmond / 05 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Brady v Manning - we can't wait!
"Manning without doubt has the momentum in terms of performance and, if the Patriots don’t get pressure on him, the New England secondary is in for a long and tempestuous day."
Andy Richmond is relishing the elite quarter-back duel that Sunday night's Super Bowl will deliver. But, as our man explains, there's far more to New England Patriots v New York Giants than that...
Superbowl XLVI
New England Patriots v New York Giants
Sunday February 5
Live on SKY Sports 1 & HD1 22:30 - KO 23:30
Match odds: New England [1.74] New York Giants [2.34]
"The four biggest holiday celebrations in the United States are Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year's Day and the Super Bowl." - The Washington Post.
Much of the talk and analysis around Super Bowl XLVI has focused on the last time these two met four years ago in Super Bowl XLII. But, as I wrote in an earlier column this week, the game that provides a better template for this contest is the match-up from week nine.
Plenty of theories abound about how the Patriots and Giants can win the game. We know that the Giants need to exert pressure on Tom Brady, how dangerous the Patriots two tight-ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are, that we have two of the best slot receivers in the game today in Victor Cruz and Wes Welker taking part, and that the Patriots secondary has been both porous and poor all year. But what about the other elements which could prove game changing?
Both sides are known as primarily passing teams, but I think that both the Patriots and the Giants will attempt to run the ball a little more than they have this season. The Patriots take to the air for 59.5 percent of their offensive plays, but they might try a few more running plays to test the Giants' run-stopping ability. The Giants give up 121.6 rushing yards per game and allow 4.5 yards per run. From the no-huddle, Brady might try more shotgun handoffs to BenJarvus Green-Ellis and the other running backs. If it works, the Pats might have a more balanced offense than they've shown this season. The Giants run game had a horrible season but both Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs have got better and better in the post season. There's excitement about the triumvirate of New York wide receivers but the Giants run game must not be underestimated. It will prove vital in a foil to the passing game.
Tom Brady tossed two interceptions in that week nine loss to the Giants and New York scored 10 points off those turnovers. Since then Brady has taken more care of the football and only been picked off twice. Here he's bound to face the Giants "big nickel" defence again. With the Giants thin at linebacker they often replace a linebacker with a third safety in Deon Grant; that scheme is called a "big nickel" and they use it because it matches up well with all the Patriots two tight-end sets and shutting them down would give the Giants a significant advantage.
I've already mentioned the Giants pass-rush but how are the Patriots going to counteract the awesome foursome? For Bill O'Brien, the Patriots offensive coordinator, this is his biggest concern as the Giants had 34 sacks using four or fewer defenders. I suspect that O'Brien will attempt to slow down the pass rush by throwing lots of screens and tire the Giants defence out by keeping them on the field with plenty of no-huddle offence, a tactic that Brady is particularly adept at running. This would also prove a viable tactic to keep the more explosive Giants offence off the field.
I love the head to head between the two quarterbacks Tom Brady and Eli Manning, both of whom can be put in the elite category. Brady needs to bounce back from a disappointing AFC Championship Game, while Manning has grown throughout the season. Brady will be going for his fourth Super Bowl ring, while Manning will be attempting to gain his second. If Brady is to solve the Giants' defence he'll need Rob Gronkowski to be fully healthy (unlikely) and the running game to give him something. He must also avoid throwing interceptions.
Manning without doubt has the momentum in terms of performance and, if the Patriots don't get pressure on him, the New England secondary is in for a long and tempestuous day.
The Giants had a regular season record of 9-7 against the Patriots' 13-3. But the New York schedule was savage - New Orleans, New England, NY Jets, Atlanta, Dallas twice, San Francisco twice and Green Bay twice - and they managed to go 8-2 in those ten games. New England struggled against quality opposition.
There are plenty of notable parts of this chess game that both teams need to make function but it may be some of the lesser moves that decide this one. There is little between the teams and for that reason I'll have to side with the Giants to maintain their hold over the Patriots. They can gain another Super Bowl victory in a year which has great symmetry with their previous run at the Lombardi Trophy four years ago.
Recommended Bet
Back New York Giants +3.5 @ [1.74] or better
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