BNP Paribas Masters 2014 Betting: Raonic's superb tie break form to continue against Berdych

"Each of their last two meetings featured a set one tie break and unless one succumbs to scoreboard pressure or has a poor service game it seems likely again today."

Back Raonic to win set one 7-6 at 6.5n/a

It's semi final Saturday at the BNP Paribas Masters and after landing a big-priced winner yesterday, Sean Calvert is back with his selections for today...

It was a profitable day of tennis betting on Friday at the BNP Paribas Masters nice and early when Kevin Anderson won the opener of his match against Tomas Berdych.

My 3.7511/4 chance landed when Anderson won set one on the tie break and that proved to be the right wager to side with the South African in, as he rather predictably went on to lose from a break up in the decider.

That meant that Berdych qualified for the World Tour Finals and also qualified on the day were Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic, who surprisingly defeated Roger Federer in straight sets.

We start at 1.30pm UK time on Saturday, with an intriguing fourth career meeting between Berdych and Raonic.

This pair met here last year in the third round, when Berdych was a 7-6, 6-4 winner, but Raonic was a winner in the two before that and is a 1.845/6 favourite today.

Both players should be a fair bit more relaxed today having qualified for the O2 and as the odds suggest it's a tight one to call, with the winner likely to be the one who serves the better.

Raonic was very good yesterday against Federer in arguably the performance of his career, hitting 21 aces and winning 65 percent of points on his second serve - stats that will surely see him win today if he manages to repeat them.

Berdych has been scratchy all week, doing just enough each round to get through and not impressing in any of them, so I'm leaning towards the Canadian in this one.

The Czech may well show better form with the pressure of O2 qualification behind him though and it could pay to go with a tie break opening set here at a bigger price.

Raonic is much more likely to win it if it does reach a breaker, with Berdych weighing in with a really poor 9-16 (36%) win mark in tie breaks this year and he's lost the two he's played in Bercy this week.

Milos has been very good in breakers this week, winning all three and holding a 39-12 (76%) win mark in them in 2014.

Each of their last two meetings featured a set one tie break and unless one succumbs to scoreboard pressure or has a poor service game it seems likely again today.

The 6.5n/a that's available about a 7-6 set one win for Raonic looks the one here, or the 1.845/6 about the Canadian winning for more circumspect punters is the other option.

Recommended Bet
Back Raonic to win set one 7-6 at 6.5n/a

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Newcastle v Arsenal: Gunners to continue proving their doubters wrong

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Ligue 1: PSG set to continue their match towards the title

French Football / James Eastham / 09 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Nene (centre) has been Ligue 1's outstanding player this season

"Rennes’ home record is a disappointing W4-D5-L1 and Sochaux’s away record is W1-D5-L5. The fact Rennes have won fewer than half their home games and Sochaux have avoided defeat in more than half their away games indicates the hosts’ price should be nearer to evens."

After three successful bets last weekend James Eastham picks out the smartest selections from France's matchday 23.

Nice v PSG (18th v 1st) Sunday, 16:00 GMT

Nice are Ligue 1's poorest attacking side right now. They could have played for hours without scoring against Montpellier (0-1) a fortnight ago, and it was a similar story when they went out of the French Cup on penalties after two goalless hours against Rennes (21 Jan). Last weekend they grabbed a late equaliser at Ajaccio (1-1) but that goal was the result of the sort of defensive error they won't be handed every week.

PSG are so talented they can score freely without even playing well. That's what happened against Evian last weekend (3-1 win) and has occurred many times this season. The individual brilliance of their multi-faceted squad, and in particular Nene, Ligue 1's player of the season so far, is driving the club towards their first title since 1994.

Nice have a solid home record (W4-D4-L3) but the gulf in class between these sides is so great I expected to find PSG (6/10 away wins) odds-on. Take the evens about an away win.

Valenciennes v Nancy (12th v 14th) Saturday, 14:00 GMT

These two sides are among 10 (Ajaccio, Evian, Brest, Caen, Sochaux, Auxerre, Nice and Dijon being the others) facing a relegation dogfight but are two of the best-equipped to stay out of the bottom three. Valenciennes are becoming more clinical in the penalty area, while Nancy's new signings Sebastien Puygrenier (out this weekend) and Yohan Mollo have added vital quality at either end of the pitch. Nancy players have said training has improved in recent weeks, younger team members are making progress and coach Jean Fernandez is one of the wiliest in the business.

Goals are the order of the day. Nancy will be vulnerable without Puygrenier, while Nancy scored three times at Auxerre (3-1) in their last away game and have three outstanding counter-attacking footballers in Mollo, Daniel Niculae and Lossemy Karaboue.

Back Both Teams to Score at [2.06] or Over 2.5 Goals at [2.36].

Rennes v Sochaux (6th v 20th) Saturday, 20:00 GMT

Looking at the league table, you might wonder why bottom-club Sochaux are worth an investment this weekend. But a closer look at the facts reveals Rennes are much too short to win at [1.50].

Rennes' home record is a disappointing W4-D5-L1 and Sochaux's away record is W1-D5-L5. The fact Rennes have won fewer than half their home games and Sochaux have avoided defeat in more than half their away games indicate the hosts' price should be nearer to evens than it is.

Rennes struggle because of their counter-attacking style: against sides that are well-organised and defend in great numbers the Bretons are often frustrated. And Sochaux's recent away performances suggest they are well-equipped to upset the home side: on January 14 they defended excellently before succumbing to a late set-piece at St Etienne (0-1) before gaining a well-deserved point at Lorient (1-1) a fortnight ago.

Consider backing the draw at [4.2], although I prefer the safety net of Sochaux +1.0 on the Asian handicap. This way, you will win if Sochaux win or the game ends in a draw, get your money back if Sochaux lose by a single goal and lose only if Sochaux lose by two goals or more.

Best Bet: PSG to win at Nice @ [2.00].
Other Recommended Bets: Sochaux +1.0 Asian handicap at Rennes @ [2.05]; Valenciennes v Nancy Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.36].

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NBA Line Betting: Hawks will continue to soar

Basketball / Nick Shiambouros / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Atlanta's Jeff Teague scored a career high 24 points last time out

"Atlanta Hawks will be very difficult to beat and must be backed with the handicap -4.5 at around [2.0]."

There are some important games taking place in the NBA tonight as this exciting season continues. Below is a preview of three games with handicap betting advice from Nick Shiambouros.

Boston Celtics v Cleveland Cavaliers
The Celtics, 9-10 for the season, are not playing anywhere near their best and seem to be missing Rajon Rondo who is recovering from a wrist injury. The point-guard's absence has forced Boston to run their offence through Paul Pierce which is not ideal.

Boston coach Doc Rivers is concerned by the lack of effort from his rotation but I am certain he will make the necessary adjustments ahead of this game.

The Cavaliers are 8-11 and are slowly adjusting to life without LeBron James. Rookie Kyrie Irving has impressed me this season with his outstanding ball distribution. This young point-guard has a future in Cleveland and will only get better with time.

Cavs forward Anderson Varejao has a decent record against Boston averaging 14.6 points per game over the last five meetings. He is an explosive player who could make the All-Star team next month.

This is a very important game for Boston. This veteran team needs to start winning games in a hurry to secure their place in the post-season. I think they will come out firing against the Cavs and should be backed at around [2.0] with the -3 handicap. They have a deep roster and should have way too much class for Cleveland.

Atlanta Hawks v Toronto Raptors
The Hawks are 15-6 and are playing some very sound basketball. On Sunday they thrashed New Orleans 94-72 with an outstanding team effort.

Atlanta has been in irresistible form on the road and will be looking for their fourth win of a five game trip. Point-guard Jeff Teague spreads the floor well and is coming off a career high 24 points effort against New Orleans.

The Raptors are 7-14 and have lost their last three home games. Toronto has been plagued with injuries this season and will not have the services of Andrea Bargnani who is still nursing a sore calf.

Toronto has some talented players in the rotation but they have not found a replacement for Chris Bosh, who was traded to Miami last season.

I think the Atlanta Hawks will be very difficult to beat and must be backed with the handicap -4.5 at around [2.0].

New Jersey Nets v Indiana Pacers
The Nets are 7-14 for the season, and are coming off a 94-73 loss to Toronto on Sunday. This team is led by superstar guard Deron Williams who has been in fine form recently but receives very little support from the rest of the rotation.

The Pacers are 13-6 and are in superb form. On Sunday they beat Orlando 106-85 with a lethal display of shooting. Forward Danny Granger scored 24 points and was the most effective player on the floor.

The Pacers have owned the Nets in recent meetings having won the last eight. I think another victory is assured and they should backed at around [1.9] with the -9.5 handicap.

Recommended Bets
Back Boston Celtics at [2.0] with advertised handicap -3 2pts
Back Atlanta Hawks at [2.0] with advertised handicap -4.5 1pt
Back Indiana Pacers at [1.9] with advertised handicap -9.5 2pts

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Coppa Italia Betting: Inter's form to continue away to Napoli

Italian Football / Michael Lintorn / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Diego Milito's sudden return to form has been pivotal to Inter's revival

"Inter were dire for much of their game on Sunday against Lazio, yet as is often the case when momentum is on your side, they found a way to get the win, their eighth in a row in all competitions."

Coppa Italia quarter-final week features three north-versus-south showdowns between top-seven sides, spread over three days. Michael Lintorn ponders each of them...

Juventus v Roma, Tuesday 19:45 BST, ESPN, Match odds: Juventus [2.0], Roma [4.4], The Draw [3.55]

Both of these clubs were busy last summer, hiring a new coach and completely overhauling their squads, but while things clicked right away for Juventus, Roma's ambitious work only started producing results after they held the leaders last month.

They've won every match since - though many of their opponents in that run were sides struggling for form - and have reached the semi-finals of this competition in six of the last seven years, doing so last year courtesy of a victory in Turin.

However, with Juventus yet to taste defeat all season, engineering a repeat is far more difficult than those stats suggest. Indeed, with the Old Lady winning six from ten at their new home and Roma erratic on their travels, the hosts are the more appetising of the pair at [2.0].

Under 2.5 goals is even more appealing at [1.87], having been a feature of their last four collisions and four of Juventus' five meetings with top-six rivals this term.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ [1.87]

Napoli v Inter, Wednesday 19:45 BST, ESPN, Match odds: Napoli [2.38], Inter [3.45], The Draw [3.35]

As Claudio Ranieri was willing to concede, Inter were dire for much of their game on Sunday against a very committed Lazio, yet as is often the case when momentum is on your side, they found a way to get the win, their eighth in a row in all competitions.

By contrast, things haven't been going to plan for Napoli recently, despite this being the period of the campaign in which they were expected to impress with the pressure of juggling domestic and European ambitions briefly lifted.

The return of Ezequiel Lavezzi from injury will improve matters, but with Inter the best team in Italy right now and Napoli triumphing in just five of their last 11 at the San Paolo, odds of above-evens on the visitors - holders and finalists in six of the last seven seasons - is too big to snub.

Best Bet: Inter to qualify @ [2.14]

AC Milan v Lazio, Thursday 19:45 BST, ESPN, Match odds: AC Milan [1.87], Lazio [5.0], The Draw [3.6]

Lazio have, in this not quite impartial observer's view, been better this term than in narrowly missing out on a Champions League place in 2010-11. But Sunday's loss to Inter, the latest in a long list of big games in which they have played well and not won, will likely sink their top-three bid, increasing the importance of the cup.

The first example of that trend came on the opening day, when they led the champions 2-0 in Milan, Djibril Cisse grabbing his first and only goal in Italian football, yet were forced to settle for a point.

That was Lazio's fourth straight draw with the Rossoneri, three of those encounters taking place at San Siro. So though the hosts appear generously priced, the standout option is to back both teams to score, a feature of AC Milan's last four Coppa Italia ties, just one of which they've won in 90 minutes.

Best Bet: Both teams to score @ [1.88]

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Serie A Previews: Parma's strong home form set to continue

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 02 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

Parma’s attacking midfielder Sebastian Giovinco

"I fully expect Franco Colomba’s team (Parma) to turn four home wins from six into five from seven."

After a disappointing loss in the Coppa Italia last week, Parma need to get back to winning ways in Serie A as soon as possible, and Dave Farrar believes Sunday night is the perfect time to start.

Parma v Palermo, KO: Sunday 19:45, live on ESPN, Match Odds: Parma [2.18], Palermo [4.2], The Draw [3.2]

Given the strong side that they put out against Serie B Verona last week, Parma were clearly keen to have a go at winning this season's Coppa Italia. A shock defeat meant that the focus for the rest of the season at the Ennio Tardini will be on finishing as high in the league table as they can.

Parma are [2.18] to get back to winning ways on Sunday against Palermo, and I think that rates as a bit of value. Palermo are strong at the Renzo Barbera, but dreadful on the road. They're yet to score a goal away from home, and while Parma's oddly leaky defence will give Devis Mangia's team a chance of netting, the home side should be too strong.

Sebastian Giovinco is the key man for Parma: the OPTA statistics show that he has been involved in nine of the fifteen goals that his team have chalked up, scoring seven and providing two assists. With Palermo likely to set up defensively, he will have to find a way to get into space, but the former Juventus man is adept at doing that and I expect him to hurt Palermo. The Rosanero have, after all, conceded 31 goals in their last 16 away games. I fully expect Franco Colomba's team to turn four home wins from six into five from seven.

Recommendation: Back Parma to beat Palermo at [2.18]

Fiorentina v Roma, KO: Sunday 14:00, Match Odds: Fiorentina [2.44], Roma [3.4], The Draw [3.3]

Delio Rossi is still looking for his first win since he took over at Fiorentina, and as an ex Lazio man, I'm sure that he'd be delighted if it arrived against Roma. Rossi had a good record against the city rivals on the Lazio bench, winning three derbies, but he may struggle to inspire this average La Viola team to hit those sort of heights.

Discipline would appear to be a problem at Fiorentina, with Alessio Cerci and Andrea Lazzari fined for staying out too late after last week's Coppa Italia win, and with the former Roma player Cerci likely to be left out of the side against his old club, Fiorentina could be struggling for any kind of creativity. It's now three games in a row in which Fiorentina have failed to score, and it's shocking that a team with their tradition should be one of the least productive teams in Serie A. Only Lecce and Cesena have scored fewer goals.

Roma are no great shakes either - recent victories over some of the lower lights in the division have papered over the cracks, but the fact remains that this Roma team doesn't pass the ball at pace and lacks incision.

The draw at [3.4] looks tempting, but I'll go a little further than that and take the risk that Roma will fail to get on the scoresheet for just the third time in their last twenty one away games. The [9.2] which is available about the game finishing 0-0 looks too big, as does the [2.8] about the game being goalless at half time. We should take advantage of both prices.

Recommendation Back 0-0 Correct Score @ [9.2]
Back 0-0 Half Time Score @ [2.8]

Finally, a word on what looks like a tempting treble this weekend. Juventus are [1.29] to beat Cesena at home, Lazio are [1.4] to beat Novara, and Napoli [1.4] to prove too good for Lecce.

This might look like a steal (as a couple of people have already told me this week) but I'd be careful: Napoli have an awful record in their matches immediately before a Champions League game, Juventus looked out on their feet after that classic against Napoli, and a strong Lazio team couldn't win at Vaslui in the Europa League on Thursday night. I think that one of the legs of this "certainty" looks like it might fail, and I'll continue my policy of avoiding bets like this.

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Home And Away: Huddersfield run to continue at Charlton

Daily Tipping / Jonno Turner / 28 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Lee Clark will aim to cut into Charlton's lead at the top of League One

Jonno Turner is backing Huddersfield to extend the longest unbeaten streak in Football League history at The Valley, and fancies Malaga too...

We're off to La Liga this evening as Malaga welcome Villarreal to La Rosaleda aiming to extend their excellent recent home form.

Malaga are currently sixth in the league following an impressive run of seven wins in nine home games - the two they failed to win being against Barcelona and Real Madrid, which is very forgivable!

And Manuel Pellegrini has really got his side, who have won two of their last three, playing with confidence. Malaga invested heavily during the close season and have assembled an impressive squad featuring the likes of Joaquin, Santi Cazorla and Ruud van Nistelrooy - and contrary to some expectations, seem to have gelled pretty well thus far.

Villarreal head to southern Spain on a nightmare run which has seen them fail to win in 15 games on the road. You have to go all the way back to March to find the Yellows last La Liga success away from El Madrigal, and that barren run has contributed to their position of 12th in the league.

The home side smashed in three goals in their last game, and should have a few opportunities come their way against a Villarreal side which has conceded an average of two in their last four games away from home.

I'm sticking my money on the home win here, to lift Los Boquerones into fifth place in the league.

Bet 1: Malaga (HOME) to win @ [1.82]

It's the battle of the big two in League One tonight - as Huddersfield travel to Charlton in what promises to be a great game.

They appear to be two evenly matched sides so the form guide isn't much help here - both teams have been on excellent runs going into this one, and both have an abundance of talent at this level.

Charlton have won their last five in the league, however those games have been against some of the league's poorer sides - and haven't lost at The Valley since April. The team to beat them that day were Huddersfield.

And the Addicks are fallible, as shown by their loss to hard-working Stevenage last month. Chris Powell's side have conceded seven in their last seven outings in front of their own fans, which isn't a disaster, but against a side as solid as Huddersfield the odd goal could be the difference here.

Indeed, Lee Clark's side could make it 44 league games unbeaten this evening, which is an astonishing feat at any level. The Terriers boss has ingrained a never-say-die attitude into his charges and strengthened further on loan deadline day, snapping up Jon Parkin and six Duracell bunnies.

Jordan Rhodes has been in red hot form for the away side and goes into this game having smashed 21 goals, the same as Robin van Persie, in all competitions. And his side need to win here to keep themselves in the top two, following Sheffield Wednesday's win at the weekend.

There is no denying that this will be a tight game, however if anyone can stop Charlton, it's tonight's opponents, and at great value as well. Importantly, the Addicks are without their injured captain Johnnie Jackson, who has been instrumental in their success so far this campaign, and I think this could be a telling loss come 22:00 tonight.

Bet 2: Huddersfield (AWAY) to win @ [3.2]

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