Singapore Cup: Attack too strong at Kranji

Mull Of Killough fared best of the British raiders in fifth behind Military Attack, the ultra-impressive winner of the Singapore Airlines International Cup at Kranji...

Mull Of Killough fared best of the British raiders in fifth behind Military Attack, the ultra-impressive winner of the Singapore Airlines International Cup at Kranji...

Raced under the name of Rave for John Hills in Britain, Military Attack has developed a new lease of life as a five-year-old in Hong Kong and put this race to bed within a matter of strides.

Ed Dunlop's globetrotter Red Cadeaux was forced to concede plenty of ground by making his move wide down the back straight and he could never land a blow, while Godolphin's Hunter's Light looked to be travelling well but found little.

Mull Of Killough was always in a decent position under George Baker but was run out of the places close home.

Jockey Zac Purton was allowed the luxury of easing right down on the John Moore-trained winner, with Dan Exel, formerly Dunboyne Express during his racing days in Ireland, finishing second.

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League One Betting: Brentford strong enough to blunt Blades in Sky TV clash

Sheffield United have wobbled a few times at home this season, notably the amazing loss to basement club Hartlepool over Christmas, so I wouldn't be in a rush to snap up the 2.407/5 on offer.

The League One betting bonanza continues this Saturday, with the first of two live Sky TV games over the weekend. Alan Dudman thinks Brentford are the ones to side with in the early kick-off at Sheffield United, in a match where goals might be few and far between.

Sheffield United 2.407/5 v Brentford 3.4012/5, the draw 3.55n/a

Live on Sky Sports 2, Saturday 12:45

The Sky cameras have chosen the right game this Saturday, with Brentford chasing Doncaster for the position at the top of the table. Sheffield United are only two points behind with a game in hand, and a chance to bounce back from a surprising 4-0 defeat to Stevenage last weekend.

These two teams met earlier in the season in November, in which the Londoners prevailed 2-0. Brentford boss Uwe Rosler described the Blades as the best team in the league after that victory, but key to the performance was an early goal, which allowed Rosler's side to sit back and defend. Sheffield United couldn't break them down at all.

Match Odds:

Sheffield United have wobbled a few times at home this season, notably the amazing loss to basement club Hartlepool over Christmas, so I wouldn't be in a rush to snap up the 2.407/5 on offer. The Blades have been better on their travels too, collecting 10 wins compared to seven at Bramall Lane. Tactically games on the road suit them better, as they can soak up pressure and hit opponents on the counter attack, whereas home pressure and fans dictate a more attacking and commanding display - and that has not always happened.

Brentford appeal at the 3.309/4 odds, and have a fairly decent record away from Griffin Park this season. They have lost only five times, and have conceded only 19 goals on the road from 18 games. Their overall form is two defeats from their last six outings.

Regular readers of this column will know my previous with Rosler's side - in particular with late goals. This was advertised once again last weekend with their 1-0 win against Preston. The winner came in the 96th minute, the umpteenth time this seems to have happened. So remember, backing in-running, get the fingers hovering over the back or lay buttons to cash out.

Opta Stats:

Uwe Rosler's side have not netted in the first-half of any of their last five league games. Therefore I would be keen on using the half-time draw market to back at around 2.1411/10. This of course brings into play trading opportunities to get involved in the 0-0 correct scoreline, which if proved right to around 60 minutes - will start to tumble dramatically.

The three clashes between Brentford and Sheffield United since the start of last season, which are the only league clashes since the 1988/89 campaign, have all finished 2-0 (with two in favour of the Blades).

Unders and overs:

Brentford are usually a keen exponent of the passing game, and are very patient in their build-up play. They were slightly different tactically last weekend in beating Preston, as Rosler had them a bit more direct, playing the ball forward quicker than anticipated. Here I think they might sit deeper again, and revert to soaking up the expected home pressure.

The feature of Sheffield United's run of one win at Bramall Lane in 2013 has been their inability to break teams down. Which sets up a perfect bet at the braver under 1.5 goals @ 3.2011/5. United have also kept an astonishing six clean sheets in their last seven matches. I would normally recommend under 2.5 goals, but at 1.654/6 it's too short, and would only get involved in that bet if there was an early goal (to enable backing at a higher price in running).

Recommended Bets
Back under 1.5 goals @ 3.7011/4
Back HT draw @ 2.1011/10
Back Brentford to win @ 3.309/4
Back Brentford to win 0-1 @ 9.30n/a

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World Cup 2014 Betting: Strong and sluggish starters

"Despite a torrid qualifying campaign for Euro 2012 and starting so badly under new boss Sinisa Mihajlovic, Serbia have come up trumps in Group A."

With the first two European rounds of World Cup qualifying over, Christian Crowther separates the early bolters from the stutterers...

THE STRONG

Serbia
Despite a torrid qualifying campaign for Euro 2012 and starting so badly under new boss Sinisa Mihajlovic, Serbia have come up trumps in Group A. A hard earned draw against Scotland and an emphatic 6-1 home win against Wales have left them level on four points with perceived frontrunners Croatia and Belgium. They are now a tempting 4.84/1 to top the group.

Bosnia
Bosnia have racked up no fewer than 12 goals in their first two matches in Group G, winning both comfortably, and sit ahead of Greece as a result of their mammoth haul. Ok, eight of those goals came against Liechtenstein but Bosnia followed that result with a convincing 4-1 win at home to a Latvia side which had already troubled the Greeks. Edin Dzeko and co are still second favourites behind the Euro 2012 quarter-finalists at 2.245/4 to win the group.

Russia
Under new boss Fabio Capello, Russia started with a comfortable 2-0 home win over Northern Ireland and then followed it up with an emphatic 4-0 road victory over Israel. Away wins and a healthy goal difference are so important for any team harbouring group-topping desires and Russia could not have started better in those departments. Capello's charges are looking good at 2.265/4 to progress automatically from Group F.

THE SLUGGISH

Slovenia
Although not a recognised giant of European football, Slovenia will be desperately disappointed to have been the only team in Group E not to have picked up any points. It's a really open group though, with Switzerland the sole side to have taken maximum points as everyone else went on to record a win and a loss.

Scotland
If away wins are an important part of qualifying success then home wins generally fall under the essential category. Craig Levein's team have only gleaned two points from their opening two encounters after successive frustrating draws at Hampden Park. Scotland have it all to do to qualify and not surprisingly have slipped out to 20.019/1 to win the group.

Wales
Already suffering from a bruising start to the campaign, it will be hard for Wales to recover from such a humiliating defeat to Serbia. Losing to Belgium was probably acceptable given the sending off and the quality of opposition, though this latest result leaves Welsh hopes in tatters.

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GSOP Event #12: Pot Limit Not a Betfair Strong Point

Grand Series of Poker VIII / Matthew Pitt / 12 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Pot Limit Hold'em

Although I am not personally a fan of Pot Limit Hold'em I love the idea of one rebuy and one add-on formats so please Betfair Poker add some more of these to the regular schedules

It appears that in Team Betfair circles there is a big thumbs up for Pot Limit Omaha but a resounding chorus of boos and hisses for the same betting structure when applied to Texas Hold'em. Why? Divert your eyes downwards to find out.

Event #12: $100+$8 Pot Limit Hold'em 1r1a $50,000 Guaranteed

Although I am not personally a fan of Pot Limit Hold'em I love the idea of one rebuy and one add-on formats so please Betfair Poker add some more of these to the regular schedules. The reason I like them is the fact they help increase the prize pools and allow you to loosen up a tad without having to have a gigantic bankroll to rebuy a dozen times. Anyway, more on that later, let's get down to the action or should I saw lack of it.

I wish you guys could see my Holdem Manager database to see the cards I was being dealt early on, they were ridiculous to say the least. We started with Js5h, 7s5h, Qd7h, Qh5s, 3s3h, Ts6d, Jh5d, Jh4h, Tc8s, Qd2h, 8c3h, 7c2h, 6c6d, Kd2h and 6s2s! Amazing. I then picked up QdQc, raised and picked up the blinds to start the ball of crap cards rolling again.

I'd lost a coupled of 150-200 chip pots trying to get creative but it looked like another early bath was on the cards until I picked up KdKs during the 50/100 level. BobbyJ4 opened to 300 from under the gun, one player folded before tiltnogood8 three-bet to 699. Another player folded before I shoved for 1,935 in total. BobbyJ4 then re-shoved for 5,785 and when tiltnogood8 folded I found myself up against pocket queens. A ten-high board was enough to see me scoop the pot.

Although things weren't going my way I decided to add-on during the break which is why I was able to donate 8,143 chips to my opponent during the 300/600 level. The action folded to Sircall in the butoff and he made it 1,200 to play. I was on the button and three-bet to 3,480 then called off my 4,663 remaining chips when Sircall essentially shoved on me. My 8s8c were ever so slightly ahead of the Ah9h of villain but I don't win flips and didn't win this one either as the board ran out Jh-Jd-10d-Ad-Kh to bust me out in 160/297. Meh.

It appears that PLHE is not the forte of my fellow Betfair players either because only three of us made it into the money places. Toots2_x finished in 40th, Doobs faired a little better busting in 24th whilst Mulegrynet's tournament came to an abrupt end in 14th place. Still over $1,700 won so not all lost by any means. Well done everyone who cashed!

Event #12 in numbers

Total entrants: 297
Total prize pool: $72,100
Total Team Betfair entrants: 44
Total Team Betfair cashes: 3
Total Team Betfair prize money: $1,711.05

Mini-GSOP Event #12: $10+$1 Pot Limit Hold'em 1r1a $10,000 Guaranteed

This particular event was one of the worst I had played in, not because of the format or anything like that but the fact I lasted exactly 37 hands despite rebuying! Yes I suck.

I'd already won a couple of little pots (before I rebought) so was seated with 2,600 chips when I picked up jacks in middle position. The UTG+1 player min-raised and I opted to call. I should possible have raised but whatever, I called. Gairy87, on the cutoff, also called and it was three ways to the 7s-7d-2h flop. UTG+1 checked, I bet 145 into the 225 pot and Gairy87 raised to 345. Our friend folded and it was no heads-up to the 6d turn. I now checked, villain bet just 165 into 915 and I called bringing us to the Ks turn. I checked again and villain bet again, setting the price at 555. I remember saying to myself that he had to have typed that amount in deliberately but I couldn't fathom out what it meant. It wasn't a king that's for sure. I opted to call and wasn't shown a king instead I got to see 9h7h for trip sevens. Ah, that makes sense!

I topped up my stack with some more chips and got back trying to find a hand. The blinds were 50/100 when I next got involved, making it 245 to play with my Ah6h from middle position. Everyone folded to the delightfully named CalzonePizza in the small blind and he called. We shared a flop reading 3h-7h-Jd and when my doughy friend checked to me I continued with a 300 bet into 590 only to see him suddenly check-raise to 800. Now here I should probably call and re-evaluate on the turn but that isn't fun is it? No it isn't, so I put in a raise myself, this one to 2,990. Have that! CalzonePizza did not take after his namesake and fold instead he shoved for 3,242 in total with ace-jack and I obviously called and even more obviously missed my flush.

The Pizza then busted me three hands later when I got the rest of my chips in with sevens to his eights and I couldn't find a third seven on the five community cards. Another finish outside the money for me, 361/412. Time for bed for Pudding.

Like the bigger GSOP Event #12 only a select few managed to make it into the money, four in total. PapAmericano made it into the money places yet again finishing in 59th place and he was joined by robmug (51st), dukeboy10 (19th) and a big shout out to 586527 who reached the final table before being eliminated in fifth for $520.19.

Mini-GSOP Event #12 in numbers

Total entrants: 412
Total prize pool: $10,000
Total Team Betfair entrants: 52
Total Team Betfair cashes: 4
Total Team Betfair prize money: $675.23

So by the time the dust had settled on the 12th events the figures looked a little something like this. In the GSOP Betfair players have cashed a total of 307 times winning $415,046.38 in the process whilst the mini-GSOPers have cashed 338 times for combined winnings of $32,216.73.

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At this year's World Series of Poker Phil Hellmuth seemed to have a unique and rather unwanted ability to finish as runner-up in some big events. At this year's Grand Series of Poker (GSOP) a number of Team Betfair players...

From time to time poker players, for some unknown reason, love to start with shallow stacks and move all-in like crazy horses just for the laugh. Poker players especially like to do this when they can rebuy and try to...

One of my favourite poker tournament formats is one played to No Limit Hold'em rules with a deep stacked structure and has tons of money money in the prizepool so surely Event #9 of the Grand Series of Poker (GSOP)...

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Meydan Super Saturday: Godolphin hold strong hand

News / Timeform / 08 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Godolphin will be well represented at Meydan on Saturday.

"Four Godolphin contenders head for the second Group One, the Jebel Hatta over nine furlongs on turf..."

Godolphin has 22 declared runners, including one reserve, for Super Saturday at Meydan on March 10 - the most valuable raceday in the UAE outside of Dubai World Cup night...

This year's fixture includes a pair of Group One contests for the first time and Godolphin is well represented in both.

There are five or six horses going for Round Three of the Maktoum Challenge over 10 furlongs on Tapeta.

Saeed bin Suroor is represented by Prince Bishop (Frankie Dettori), Mendip (Kieren Fallon) and Spring Of Fame (Johnny Murtagh), with Mahmood Al Zarooni responsible for Monterosso (Mickael Barzalona) and Capponi (Ahmed Ajtebi) plus first reserve Biondetti.

Four Godolphin contenders head for the second Group One, the Jebel Hatta over nine furlongs on turf, with Rio De La Plata (Frankie Dettori), Pisco Sour (Silvestre de Sousa) and Secrecy (Kieren Fallon) from Saeed bin Suroor's Al Quoz Stables and Mahmood Al Zarooni being represented by City Style (Mickael Barzalona).

Both trainers are also interested in the Group Two Dubai City Of Gold, with Mahmood Al Zarooni intending to run Shimraan (Frankie Dettori), Dubai Prince (Ahmed Ajtebi) and Laajooj (Mickael Barzalona).

Songcraft (Silvestre de Sousa), Campanologist (Kieren Fallon), Once More Dubai (Ted Durcan) and Cavalryman (Olivier Peslier) are due to line up in the mile and a half contest on turf for Saeed bin Suroor.

Global City (Mickael Barzalona) is set for the Group Three Mahab Al Shimaal over six furlongs on Tapeta, and the sprinter's trainer Saeed bin Suroor is also responsible for Godolphin's two participants in the Group Three Burj Nahaar over a mile on Tapeta - African Story (Frankie Dettori) and Dysphonia (Silvestre de Sousa).

Mahmood Al Zarooni runs Kinglet (Mickael Barzalona) and Counterglow (Frankie Dettori) in the remaining thoroughbred race on the card, the Listed Al Bastakiya over an extended nine furlongs on Tapeta.

.............
Visit timeform.com to download a race card for Saturday's meeting at Meydan.

Camelot heads 143 colts remaining in the Investec Derby following the first forfeit stage for the premier Classic at Epsom on June 2....

Invictus has emerged as a doubtful runner in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham......

The world's best sprinter Black Caviar looks likely to spend a month in the headquarters of British racing, Newmarket, before her much-anticipated UK debut in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot......

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Cheltenham Festival 2012: Ellison crossing fingers for strong team

News / Timeform / 05 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Brian Ellison could have eight runners

"Ultimate is now among the figures principals for the Grand Annual Handicap Chase..."

Brian Ellison has his eyes on several handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival, but has his fingers crossed his intended runners make the cut.

The North Yorkshire trainer is particularly keen on the chance of Bocciani in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle, for all that the seven-year-old is fully 17 lb behind Saturday's Newbury winner Balgarry on Timeform's current weight-adjusted ratings.

"His form has been brilliant. He was second at Doncaster last time and the winner, Big Easy, has won again and the third horse Corkage won again at Doncaster on Saturday," he said.

Ultimate, however, is now among the figures principals for the Grand Annual Handicap Chase, the final race of the Festival, after winning at Doncaster on Saturday while Ellison is hoping the Timeform 128+-rated Stormy Weather will get in the County Handicap Hurdle.

"Stormy Weather has been put up 4 lb. He's now on 130 (BHA rating) so hopefully he might get in the County Hurdle," he went on.

Ellison is keeping his options open on other members of his provisional Festival team.

"I could have three in the Fred Winter (Juvenile Handicap Hurdle) - Royal Opera, Red Inca and Artisan - while Abergavenny and Marsh Warbler have a choice of races," he added.

"I'd like to think I'd have seven or eight runners at Cheltenham, if they get in."

...........
Timeform Horses to Follow 2012 is out now! Includes Fifty to follow on the Flat, top trainer interviews & much more! Click HERE for more information.

Australian Hall of Fame trainer David Hayes will rely on former Melbourne Cup winner Americain in Saturday's $1 million Australian Cup having having decided not confirm his three other horses at the latest entry stage......

Experienced amateur rider JT McNamara will partner Teaforthree in the Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival next Wednesday....

Timeform give an overview of the weekend's racing, featuring a number of horses with the upcoming Festivals on their agenda......

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Weekend Round-Up: Strong line-ups equal strong results

Premier League / Ralph Ellis / 20 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Squad rotation was unheard of during Liverpool's successful 1984 season

"Sunday was the first time Dalglish has been able to start Suarez, Andy Carroll and Steven Gerrard in the same side and that might just give some momentum to make [4.4] for a top four finish some real value."

Both Norwich and Tottenham made changes ahead of their FA Cup ties last weekend, and both failed to win, whilst Arsenal left out their first choice goalkeeper. Ralph Ellis discusses team selections.

George Orwell thought 1984 would be when Big Brother Is Watching You. In the event Big Brother was probably too busy watching Liverpool.

The Reds played 66 games that season as their team won a treble of the League, the European Cup and the League cup. When I say the team, that is the right word - definitely not the squad. They used only 15 players in that epic season - and one of them, David Hodgson, started only one of the 42 matches in the old First Division.

I suspect the memories of that campaign have helped form Kenny Dalglish's view that, by and large, he doesn't do rotation when it comes to picking teams for Cup matches. Goalkeeper Pepe Reina made his 34th appearance in Liverpool's 6-1 romp over Brighton yesterday out of 34 matches in the season so far, and it's a certainty he'll take that record to 35 in Sunday's Carling Cup final.

Incidentally there was probably one more memory of 1984 that informed Dalglish's selection for yesterday's game and that was the one black spot when they got knocked out of the FA Cup in the fourth round - by Brighton. It was one that, very rarely, he missed because of injury but enough to drive home the point that the threat of an upset is always there.

Liverpool's commitment to cup competitions has been clear since they began the Carling Cup campaign at Exeter back in August with Reina in goal and Luis Suarez in the starting line-up. It's why I think the Reds deserve to be [1.43] favourite for Sunday's meeting with Cardiff and ought to be clear favourite rather than second at [3.85] for the FA Cup.

Dalglish is still talking optimistically of a treble with a top four finish too. His side are only four points off the Champions League places at the moment. Significantly Sunday was the first time he's been able to start Suarez, Andy Carroll and Steven Gerrard in the same side and that might just give some momentum to make [4.4] for a top four finish some real value among the clubs chasing the Champions League.

I'm not saying Dalglish hasn't used the chance to give some squad players a game in the knockout matches. It's just you sense he always picks a team to win the game, rather than choose one which might win.

Norwich, for instance, have done great things in their first season back in the Premier League but boss Paul Lambert was clearly not too bothered about getting through Saturday's tie with Leicester. He gave England youth goalkeeper Jed Steer a game among four changes and duly got beaten 2-1.

And what was Arsene Wenger doing with Lukasz Fabianski in goal at Sunderland? Doesn't giving the second string goalkeeper a game send out the message that this match doesn't really matter quite as much?

But it should have mattered. A 2-0 defeat means it's now seven years without a trophy and the critics who have been picking at Wenger were out in force on Saturday night. Wenger has two years of his contract left and, quite rightly, has the support of the board if not a growing band of fans who want change. Arsenal are in the top four currently, but would you back them even at [2.76] to stay there?

Wenger's critics hate his insistence on signing kids for the future rather than established stars for the present. Ironically it was one of those prospects, Japanese teenager Ryo Miyaichi, who got one of the goals for Bolton that clinched a 2-0 win at Millwall. He was part of a strong side selected by Owen Coyle who must have fancied that a Cup quarter-final would boost confidence for the relegation fight. Bolton are currently [1.8] to go down.

Tony Pulis knows all about marathon seasons. Yesterday's 2-0 win at Crawley was Stoke's 41st game of the season and they have at least another 15 to go. He's also followed the principle of trying to win cup games rather than not caring - skipper Ryan Shawcross has missed only six of them while striker Jon Walters, who tucked away the first goal from the penalty spot, has played in 40.

I love Stoke's attitude and between [7.4] and [15.5] in the early market for them to turn round a 1-0 deficit and qualify over Valencia in the Europa League on Thursday has to be the best long odds punt of the week.

Tottenham are [3.75] favourites for the FA Cup despite still needing a replay over Stevenage to take their place in the quarter-finals. Harry Redknapp did make loads of changes for yesterday's tie and it showed. Surprising, really. He might not know too much about George Orwell's version of 1984, but I bet he could name every one of Liverpool's 15 players!

Lifelong Man City fan Lee Dixon believes most City players would be prepared to forgive Carlos Tevez if the Argentinian returned to the team in goalscoring form......

Arsenal have endured a miserable few days and, unless they buck their ideas up very quickly, they could be humiliated by their local rivals on Sunday, says Richard Aikman....

Norwich have been one of the surprise teams in the Premier League, thanks in no small part to John Ruddy, says Hannah Duncan. Next stop, England?...

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Liverpool v Man City: Strong defensive show to see Reds through

Carling Cup / Michael Lintorn / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Kenny Dalglish has twice beaten Man City twice since returning to Anfield

"Manchester City are without a victory in nine trips to Anfield and a 1-0 away first-leg lead has been converted on six of the seven occasions that it has been achieved at this stage in the competition."

Michael Lintorn expects Manchester City to exit their third competition in 50 days when fighting to overturn a 0-1 Carling Cup semi-final deficit at Anfield...

Liverpool v Man City, Wednesday 19:45 BST, Sky Sports 1, Match odds: Liverpool [2.7], Man City [2.82], The Draw [3.55]

This writer finds much to fault in terms of Kenny Dalglish's performance since returning to Liverpool, including his transfer dealings - for which Damien Comolli is also culpable - points dropped to lowly clubs, inconsistent criticism of officials and handling of the Luis Suarez affair.

One area in which he has consistently delivered in his second stint however is in getting the best out of his players in big-match environments, which is perhaps why he took the unusual step of publicly berating them after Saturday's 3-1 defeat away to Bolton.

Under Dalglish, the Reds have won two and drawn another of their four meetings with Manchester City, gone three for three against Chelsea and beaten both Manchester United and Arsenal.

And though their record at Anfield has been attacked because of the frequency with which they are held by less expensively assembled squads, they have only actually lost once in 24 games there, and require just a draw to vindicate odds of [1.41] on them qualifying.

The Opta stats give Liverpool fans plenty of reason to be optimistic, noting that Manchester City are without a victory in nine trips to Anfield and revealing that a 1-0 away first-leg lead has been converted on six of the seven occasions that it has been achieved at this stage in the competition.

Further cause for confidence is provided by the fact that, at the time of writing (ahead of the Cardiff v Crystal Palace decider), the last six semi-final second legs have all been won by the hosts.

Roberto Mancini's side - seen off by Manchester United at this point two years ago - have claimed only two wins in seven on their travels - both 1-0. And with Mario Balotelli expected to start a four-match ban for an alleged stamp on Scott Parker, [2.7] looks a hefty price on Liverpool enjoying a seventh successive cup triumph.

Over/under 2.5 goals

A Steven Gerrard penalty was all that separated the teams in the initial tie as the Premier League leaders struggled to create clear-cut chances and Liverpool defended strongly, bucking the recent tendency for this fixture to produce over 2.5 goals.

A clash between the two at Anfield is even less likely to be high scoring, with the Reds themselves managing to net more than once there just twice in nine games, and one of those against Oldham.

Seven of their last eight there facing top-flight opponents have featured two goals or fewer and with Dalglish no doubt prepared to again put plenty of bodies between Pepe Reina and Sergio Aguero and co, under 2.5 goals appeals at [1.83].

Liverpool clean sheet

Having fired in every domestic encounter prior to their Boxing Day draw at West Brom, Manchester City have been shut out in two of their last three on the road, striking once in their last 358 minutes (almost six hours) of away action. Liverpool are [2.9] to add to that frustration.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ [1.83]
Other Recommended Bet: Liverpool to keep a clean sheet @ [2.9]

Cardiff knocked out Crystal Palace on penalties but are far from being favourites on Betfair's Carling Cup winner market, despite being the only team guaranteed a place in the final....

A 1-0 defeat at Selhurst Park leaves Cardiff with it all to do in the second leg of their Carling Cup semi-final, but Michael Lintorn thinks they will deliver......

There are rumours that Liverpool are about to purchase one of the most hyped stars in the Football League, in the process weakening a side who they might face at Wembley......

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South Africa: Igugu heads strong Met field

News / Gary Crispe / 22 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Igugu is the star entry in the J&B Met.

"Igugu, the winner of nine of her 11 starts in South Africa including the Group 1 Durban July, has recovered from a slight setback and is a hot ante-post favourite..."

There were few surprises when the final field was announced for the R2.5-million J&B Met to be run over 2000m at Kenilworth on Saturday 28 January, with South Africa's reigning Horse of the Year Igugu heading a fantastic field of 16...

Australian-bred Igugu, the winner of nine of her 11 starts in South Africa including the Group 1 Durban July, has recovered from a slight setback and is a hot ante-post favourite for the finale to the Sizzling Summer Season in the Western Cape.

Bravura, Tales Of Bravery and talented three-year-old Gimmethegreenlight, winner of the recent Queen's Plate, are all in the line-up.

Absentees include Summer Cup winner Dancewiththedevil and Charity Mile winner Piere Jourdan as well as three-year-olds Variety Club and Jackson, who have accepted for the Cape Derby instead.

Igugu suffered a setback in training and had to miss the Paddock Stakes, her planned final preparatory run but the Mike de Kock stable says she has hardly missed a beat in getting back into full work.

She will be ridden by her regular jockey Anthony Delpech.

De Kock has also accepted with his Brazilian-bred gelding Ilsanpietro who won the Java Handicap and finished second in both the Victory Moon and the Summer Cup and will have Weichong Marwing in the irons.

The Joey Ramsden-trained Bravura , who won the Cape Derby two years ago but has only won two races since has been allocated top weight of 60kg and will meet Igugu on 0.5kg worse terms than in last year's Durban July when he finished seventh.

He ran in last year's Met and was expected to do much better than seventh behind Past Master but this term has won the Green Point Stakes and was fourth in the L'Ormarins Queen's Plate and looks to be back to his best.

He will have champion jockey Anton Marcus in the irons.

Smart chaser Blazing Tempo landed the most prestigious victory of her career over fences so far when taking the Grade 2 Normans Grove Chase at Fairyhouse on Sunday afternoon....

Somersby (BSP of [5.8]) finally gained the big victory his consistent efforts deserved when wearing down Finian's Rainbow in the 25th Anniversary of the VC Chase at Ascot......

Betting.Betfair columnist Donald McCain fired in a quartet of winners at Haydock on Saturday......

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Serie A Previews: Parma's strong home form set to continue

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 02 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

Parma’s attacking midfielder Sebastian Giovinco

"I fully expect Franco Colomba’s team (Parma) to turn four home wins from six into five from seven."

After a disappointing loss in the Coppa Italia last week, Parma need to get back to winning ways in Serie A as soon as possible, and Dave Farrar believes Sunday night is the perfect time to start.

Parma v Palermo, KO: Sunday 19:45, live on ESPN, Match Odds: Parma [2.18], Palermo [4.2], The Draw [3.2]

Given the strong side that they put out against Serie B Verona last week, Parma were clearly keen to have a go at winning this season's Coppa Italia. A shock defeat meant that the focus for the rest of the season at the Ennio Tardini will be on finishing as high in the league table as they can.

Parma are [2.18] to get back to winning ways on Sunday against Palermo, and I think that rates as a bit of value. Palermo are strong at the Renzo Barbera, but dreadful on the road. They're yet to score a goal away from home, and while Parma's oddly leaky defence will give Devis Mangia's team a chance of netting, the home side should be too strong.

Sebastian Giovinco is the key man for Parma: the OPTA statistics show that he has been involved in nine of the fifteen goals that his team have chalked up, scoring seven and providing two assists. With Palermo likely to set up defensively, he will have to find a way to get into space, but the former Juventus man is adept at doing that and I expect him to hurt Palermo. The Rosanero have, after all, conceded 31 goals in their last 16 away games. I fully expect Franco Colomba's team to turn four home wins from six into five from seven.

Recommendation: Back Parma to beat Palermo at [2.18]

Fiorentina v Roma, KO: Sunday 14:00, Match Odds: Fiorentina [2.44], Roma [3.4], The Draw [3.3]

Delio Rossi is still looking for his first win since he took over at Fiorentina, and as an ex Lazio man, I'm sure that he'd be delighted if it arrived against Roma. Rossi had a good record against the city rivals on the Lazio bench, winning three derbies, but he may struggle to inspire this average La Viola team to hit those sort of heights.

Discipline would appear to be a problem at Fiorentina, with Alessio Cerci and Andrea Lazzari fined for staying out too late after last week's Coppa Italia win, and with the former Roma player Cerci likely to be left out of the side against his old club, Fiorentina could be struggling for any kind of creativity. It's now three games in a row in which Fiorentina have failed to score, and it's shocking that a team with their tradition should be one of the least productive teams in Serie A. Only Lecce and Cesena have scored fewer goals.

Roma are no great shakes either - recent victories over some of the lower lights in the division have papered over the cracks, but the fact remains that this Roma team doesn't pass the ball at pace and lacks incision.

The draw at [3.4] looks tempting, but I'll go a little further than that and take the risk that Roma will fail to get on the scoresheet for just the third time in their last twenty one away games. The [9.2] which is available about the game finishing 0-0 looks too big, as does the [2.8] about the game being goalless at half time. We should take advantage of both prices.

Recommendation Back 0-0 Correct Score @ [9.2]
Back 0-0 Half Time Score @ [2.8]

Finally, a word on what looks like a tempting treble this weekend. Juventus are [1.29] to beat Cesena at home, Lazio are [1.4] to beat Novara, and Napoli [1.4] to prove too good for Lecce.

This might look like a steal (as a couple of people have already told me this week) but I'd be careful: Napoli have an awful record in their matches immediately before a Champions League game, Juventus looked out on their feet after that classic against Napoli, and a strong Lazio team couldn't win at Vaslui in the Europa League on Thursday night. I think that one of the legs of this "certainty" looks like it might fail, and I'll continue my policy of avoiding bets like this.

Despite their dismal recent domestic form, Michael Lintorn thinks that Napoli are a massive threat to Juventus' unbeaten run......

Even with Antonio Cassano likely to miss much of the remainder of the season, AC Milan should not be considering a move for Carlos Tevez, argues Michael Lintorn......

With Napoli set to face Manchester City in midweek in a huge Champions League fixture, Dave Farrar believes Lazio, and their excellent away form, can take full advantage....

Betfair website

Caulfield Cup Betting: Europe set to send strong raiding party

Timeform Features / Timeform / 31 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Last year's Melbourne Cup winner Americain has been handed top-weight for the Caulfield Cup

"Of the home contingent, last year's winner Descarado once again lines up and is allotted a weight of 8-12, 8 lb higher than his mark last year."

The Caulfield Cup is set to take place on October 15 and Europe are sending a very strong team this year to try and capture the $2,500,000 race...

Last year's Melbourne Cup winner Americain was allotted top-weight of 9-02 for the Caulfield Cup on Tuesday afternoon in a race that may serve as a prep-run for the Alain de Royre Dupre trained six-year-old before he looks to defend his Flemington crown on November 1.

Americain produced a career-best to land the 2010 running of the Melbourne Cup, catching So You Think with a hundred and fifty yards to go, before drawing clear to score by two and a quarter lengths, earning himself a Timeform rating of 126.

Although he has been below his very best this season, finishing down the field in both the Prix Kergorlay and the Prix de Bababeville, he Melbourne Cup has always been his seasonal objective, a race for which he is currently available at [22]. Americain is currently uncertain to line-up in the Caulfield Cup, with the Cox Plate also being touted by connections as a possible prep-race for the November showpiece.

The British challenge for the Caulfield Cup is headed by Brian Meehan's Breeders' Cup winner Dangerous Midge (Timeform rated 125), set to carry 9-01. He has not been seen since disappointing in the Dubai Sheema Classic, where he finished last of 14 behind Rewilding back in March, but he has proven in the past he can go well when fresh and connections could decide to send him straight to Caulfield.

Michael Bell's Tactician (115) is another British entrant and stands to race off a weight of 8-05. The four-year-old has shown a decent amount of progression in his relatively short career and was at his very best last time out, when he produced a bold front-running display to finish second in the Ebor at York, collared only late on by another who could join him in Australia, Brian Ellison's Moyenne Corniche who could go for the Melbourne Cup.

Group 3 Glorious Stakes winner Drunken Sailor (121) also holds an entry at this stage and is currently priced at [55.0] on Betfair. The Luca Cumani trained six-year-old missed the cut for the Melbourne Cup last year but has looked better this season, winning the listed Aston Park Stakes by seven lengths before his Goodwood success.

The strong pace that the Caulfield Cup is often run at will suit Drunken Sailor, who is seen at his very best when held-up given such circumstances and he is notably entered and available to back at [55.0] for the Melbourne Cup, too.

Of the home contingent, last year's winner Descarado once again lines up and is allotted a weight of 8-12, 8 lb higher than his mark last year. He is currently available to be backed at [50.0], and is bidding to become the first horse to win back-to-back Caulfield Cups since Rising Fast did so in 1955.

Amongst the market principals are Lights of Heaven and Scarlett Lady, who are priced [9.2] and [11.5] respectively and arrive at Caulfield with every chance, having won over £500,000 between them already this season.

James Fanshawe holds a strong hand in Saturday's Haydock Sprint Cup, with Deacon Blues the current favourite and Society Rock also towards the head of the betting, but Timeform reckon the prize could be going back to another Newmarket yard as the race to be crowned Europe's Champion sprinter draws closer to a conclusion......

The news that Andre Fabre's Derby winner Pour Moi has been forced into retirement through injury this week means the market for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp in October has been thrown wide open. Timeform look at the main contenders for Europe's premier middle-distance contest......

There was some outstanding racing in the US, despite the intervention of Hurricane Irene. Simon Rowlands reveals the ratings to come out of it as well as out of some of the Group races in Europe....

Betfair website

Follow The Money: Strong support for Holberg

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 26 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

FTM have an early evening wager at Sandown

"In Sandown's 19:05, Holberg has been strongly supported from [3.25] in to [2.7]."

Today's Follow The Money comes from Ayr, Brighton and Sandown.

We start at Ayr in the 15:20 where Dasho has been backed from [12.0] in to [8.0]. He had his first try over today's trip of 6f at Haydock last week and looked unsuited by the drop in distance when finishing fourth. However, he found some trouble in running that day and was doing his best work late on and with Luv U Too likely to go off in front, he could get a decent gallop and punters feel he is worth another chance at this trip.

Our next selection is in the 15:40 from Brighton where Bakoura has been drifting this morning from [2.32] out to [3.25]. The John Dunlop trained filly hasn't really progressed since showing a bit of promise as a juvenile and finished a one-paced third here last month over 6f. Today, she is stepping up to a mile for the first time and this could bring some improvement, but she is proving expensive to follow and looks one to take on at short prices today.

Our final selection comes from the evening card at Sandown and in the 19:05 Holberg has been strongly supported from [3.25] in to [2.7]. A winner over today's trip of 2m at Royal Ascot in 2009, he followed that up by winning two listed events at Goodwood and was last seen finishing 6th in the Melbourne cup. Making his seasonal reappearance today, he goes well fresh having won first time out in the last two years and on form Holberg looks like he will take a lot of beating.

Recommended Bets
Back Dasho @ [8.0] Ayr 15:20
Lay Bakoura @ [3.25] Brighton 15:40
Back Holberg @ [2.7] Sandown 19:05

Today's Follow The Money comes from the cards at Ayr and Sedgefield....

Today's Follow The Money comes from Chepstow and Lingfield....

All three of today's FTM selections come from the meeting at Carlisle....

Betfair website