League One Betting: Rosler's Brentford to get the job done

The Bees have the best home record in League One, and have lost just two games at Griffin Park all season, so they will be pleased to get back on familiar soil having faced five away trips already this month.

With the final round of League One matches this Saturday, Alan Dudman is banking on Bournemouth on securing the title (and his ante-post selection), and Brentford taking the points in the winner-takes-all clash at Griffin Park this weekend.

Brentford 2.021/1 v Doncaster Rovers 3.8514/5, the draw 3.8514/5

Saturday's shoot-out for Championship football is the stand-out game this weekend - with most things settled in the division bar the final automatic promotion place. With Bournemouth already up, the maths are simple - a Brentford win takes them to the second tier. Rovers need a point to secure second place, but can still gain the title if Bournemouth slip up at Tranmere.

The Bees have the best home record in League One, and have lost just two games at Griffin Park all season, so they will be pleased to get back on familiar soil having faced five away trips already this month.

Striker Clayton Donaldson returns for Brentford after a one match suspension, he is part of an attacking troika alongside Marcello Trotta and Bradley Wright-Phillips - all of whom have netted in their last four games. The Londoners have also scored in eight of their last nine matches and are the masters of the late goal too (as I know all too painfully).

Donny have the best away record having collected an astonishing 14 wins on the road, but overall have lost three of their last six games. Their mode is a high tempo early, relying on the long ball and to play in the opponents half. It might look a bit 'land of the giants' at Griffin Park with the visitors, but for me, Brentford are the better footballing team.

Considering the scoring run of the hosts, and their need to go for it in terms of automatic promotion, I am hoping they can deliver - I wouldn't even mind a late goal for once. Opta stats reveal that no side has picked up more points than Brentford (23) from losing positions this season - worth bearing in mind if you are brave enough to place a bigger price order in-running.

Recommended bets:
Back Brentford to win @ 2.021/1

Tranmere Rovers 4.607/2 v Bournemouth 1.865/6, the draw 3.7511/4

I am hoping for a Bournemouth victory this weekend for many reasons. 1) My outright bet for Saturday's game. 2) The Cherries were my ante-post title pick last August at 15.0014/1, and 3) My mate Neil (long time supporter and sufferer) will have no more misery.

It looks fairly simple on paper, Eddie Howe's side have rattled up a sequence of eight successive league wins (a club record). Striker Brett Pitman has found the net in all of his last eight outings, whilst the defence has been the bedrock of this superb run with just two goals conceded in seven games. The Cherries have also won their last four on the road - all with clean sheets.

Tranmere have lost the plot, and have lost their last five clashes 1-0 to make it 12 defeats from their last 16 games. Rovers were flying in the early part of the season, but they have just hit a brick wall and the players' body language recently against Preston was appalling. Opta stats reveal the horror story further, as no side have picked up fewer points than Tranmere (6) in their last 10 matches.

My one worry is that Bournemouth have already sealed promotion so in essence it's 'job done' (the most common used phrase for those who watch horse racing), but one last hurrah will be perfect.

Recommended bet:
Back Bournemouth to win @ 1.865/6
Back Bournemouth to win 0-1 @ 7.807/1

Notts County 2.3411/8 v Coventry City 3.2011/5, the draw 3.505/2

Everyone has a bogey team, Coventry are mine. When I fancy them they stink, when I lay them, they play like the Coventry side of the 90s. I am hoping they perform like the team from the 1890s - who then suffered a record loss to Berwick Rangers 11-2. More relevant historical trends from Opta stats reveal that no side in League One have lost more points from winning positions than Coventry this season (33).

County can still make a top ten finish and manager Chris Kiwomya fielded four youngsters during Saturday's 3-1 win over Colchester United. The Magpies boss faces a tough task in the summer with 15 players out of contract, but at least they have a bit of momentum.

Coventry can't score on their travels either, and have drawn a blank in their last three away games. And with just two scored from their last seven overall, they must be opposed again on Saturday.

Recommended bets:
Back Notts County to win @ 2.3411/8
Back Notts County to win 1-0 @ 8.07/1

Leyton Orient 1.9720/21 v Oldham Athletic 4.407/2, the draw 3.505/2

Orient narrowly failed to make the play-offs, but their manager Russell Slade should be fairly happy with their final league position, which certainly gives him something to build on for next term. At least Slade retained his award for best cap wearer in the division. Graham Westley won the award for v-neck sweater and blazer fashionista.

The Os are in a good run of form at Brisbane Road with five successive victories. Oldham recently secured their League One survival under Lee Johnson, and the rookie manager made eight changes on Tuesday for their midweek clash at Shrewsbury. They lost 1-0, and Johnson described some of the fringe players as 'not being good enough'.

It's a sense of 'job done' for the Latics, as three crucial wins against Bury, Crawley and Yeovil preserved their status in the division, so I am hoping the approach from the Londoners this weekend will be to sign off in front of their home fans in style.

Opta stats back up the chances of Orient, with Bournemouth (24) the only team that have picked up more points than the Os (20) in their last 10 games.

Recommended bet:
Back Orient to win @ 1.9720/21

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Big Saturday Multiple: Brentford eyeing automatic promotion

Jonno Turner picks three domestic selections to kick start the weekend in style, with sides battling it out for points at both ends of the table...

We're off to London for our first pick of this three team multiple - and a hugely important game at Griffin Park, as Brentford host Portsmouth.

Uwe Rosler's side currently sit third in the League One table, just two points behind second placed Bournemouth - but the Bees have a game in hand on their south coast rivals, and will be desperate to make the most of home advantage here.

The hosts have lost just one game since August 2012 on their own patch - an impressive run which consists a whopping 24 outings.

And four wins on the bounce in front of their own fans will have the West Londoners high in confidence ahead of this clash, as they look to maintain momentum ahead of a potential play-off campaign.

Four clean sheets from six at Griffin Park shows just how dominant Rosler's side have been of late, and I think that their guests will struggle to breach that backline.

Portsmouth travel to London occupying 22nd place in the table, and are two points inside the relegation zone with just three left the play.

The Fratton Park side have experienced a disastrous season on and off the pitch, and the writing seems to be on the wall for Guy Whittingham's charges, who have played more games than their rivals down the bottom.

Pompey have certainly shored up of late - but too often they have lacked the cutting edge to get maximum points on the board, as two wins from half a dozen games shows.

And just one win in 16 on the road since October points to a home win in this clash.

Bet 1: Brentford (HOME) @ 1.574/7

A relegation six pointer at the bottom of the Championship now, as Wolves welcome Huddersfield Town to Molineux.

Wanderers go into this one sitting 20th in the table - just two places outside of the drop zone - and they will know that this game is a must win if they are to move away from danger.

Two straight wins in front of their own fans will give the home side a boost ahead of this clash, and that makes three unbeaten on their own patch.

Dean Saunders' side will be keen to get a further three points on the board following a loss at Bolton Wanderers last week - especially as a defeat to Huddersfield would see their opponents leapfrog them.

The Terriers occupy 21st place in the division, one behind their hosts, and are just one point ahead of Blackburn - who sit in the final drop zone place, but have played a game less.

That makes every remaining opportunity to secure points massive for Mark Robins' side, and he will be desperate for them to avoid defeat here.

But the West Yorkshire side are inconsistent on the road, and have won just two of their last 12 away from thr Galpharm Stadium, which suggests that they could struggle here.

Bet 2: Wolverhampton Wanderers (HOME) @ 2.05n/a

Focusing on action in South Yorkshire now, and Rotherham United line up against Fleetwood Town, desperate to cement their place in the top six.

The Millers have been inconsistent this campaign, and that has probably been key as to why they don't sit higher up the table - but their form at the New York Stadium of late has been impressive, and they will be hoping that they can maintain that against the Cod Army.

Just one loss from half a dozen in front of their own fans, along with four wins and a draw, will be the type of run which Steve Evans wants to see from his side, and a 4-1 thrashing of fellow play-off hopefuls Exeter on Tuesday will give the home side a big boost.

Fleetwood travel to this game all but out of the promotion picture, sitting in 10th place in the table - and boss Gary Alexander will know that it will take a miracle for the Highbury Stadium side to get anything from this season now.

A 3-0 thrashing from Rochdale suggests that the seaside club have practically given up themselves, and anything other than a win at the New York Stadium will see their season come to an end.

But just one win in six suggests that an away win is an unlikely outcome, and the visitors have not kept a clean sheet on their travels since early March, which shows just how leaky they have been of late.

Bet 3: Rotherham United(HOME) @ 1.834/5

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League One Betting: Brentford strong enough to blunt Blades in Sky TV clash

Sheffield United have wobbled a few times at home this season, notably the amazing loss to basement club Hartlepool over Christmas, so I wouldn't be in a rush to snap up the 2.407/5 on offer.

The League One betting bonanza continues this Saturday, with the first of two live Sky TV games over the weekend. Alan Dudman thinks Brentford are the ones to side with in the early kick-off at Sheffield United, in a match where goals might be few and far between.

Sheffield United 2.407/5 v Brentford 3.4012/5, the draw 3.55n/a

Live on Sky Sports 2, Saturday 12:45

The Sky cameras have chosen the right game this Saturday, with Brentford chasing Doncaster for the position at the top of the table. Sheffield United are only two points behind with a game in hand, and a chance to bounce back from a surprising 4-0 defeat to Stevenage last weekend.

These two teams met earlier in the season in November, in which the Londoners prevailed 2-0. Brentford boss Uwe Rosler described the Blades as the best team in the league after that victory, but key to the performance was an early goal, which allowed Rosler's side to sit back and defend. Sheffield United couldn't break them down at all.

Match Odds:

Sheffield United have wobbled a few times at home this season, notably the amazing loss to basement club Hartlepool over Christmas, so I wouldn't be in a rush to snap up the 2.407/5 on offer. The Blades have been better on their travels too, collecting 10 wins compared to seven at Bramall Lane. Tactically games on the road suit them better, as they can soak up pressure and hit opponents on the counter attack, whereas home pressure and fans dictate a more attacking and commanding display - and that has not always happened.

Brentford appeal at the 3.309/4 odds, and have a fairly decent record away from Griffin Park this season. They have lost only five times, and have conceded only 19 goals on the road from 18 games. Their overall form is two defeats from their last six outings.

Regular readers of this column will know my previous with Rosler's side - in particular with late goals. This was advertised once again last weekend with their 1-0 win against Preston. The winner came in the 96th minute, the umpteenth time this seems to have happened. So remember, backing in-running, get the fingers hovering over the back or lay buttons to cash out.

Opta Stats:

Uwe Rosler's side have not netted in the first-half of any of their last five league games. Therefore I would be keen on using the half-time draw market to back at around 2.1411/10. This of course brings into play trading opportunities to get involved in the 0-0 correct scoreline, which if proved right to around 60 minutes - will start to tumble dramatically.

The three clashes between Brentford and Sheffield United since the start of last season, which are the only league clashes since the 1988/89 campaign, have all finished 2-0 (with two in favour of the Blades).

Unders and overs:

Brentford are usually a keen exponent of the passing game, and are very patient in their build-up play. They were slightly different tactically last weekend in beating Preston, as Rosler had them a bit more direct, playing the ball forward quicker than anticipated. Here I think they might sit deeper again, and revert to soaking up the expected home pressure.

The feature of Sheffield United's run of one win at Bramall Lane in 2013 has been their inability to break teams down. Which sets up a perfect bet at the braver under 1.5 goals @ 3.2011/5. United have also kept an astonishing six clean sheets in their last seven matches. I would normally recommend under 2.5 goals, but at 1.654/6 it's too short, and would only get involved in that bet if there was an early goal (to enable backing at a higher price in running).

Recommended Bets
Back under 1.5 goals @ 3.7011/4
Back HT draw @ 2.1011/10
Back Brentford to win @ 3.309/4
Back Brentford to win 0-1 @ 9.30n/a

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