Champions League Betting: Should Wembley already be preparing for a German party?

Following a sensational week of Champions League football, Callum Davis looks at the fallout from the first legs of the semi-inals and casts an eye over the odds for the eventual winner of the tournament.

In a Champions League week which few football fans would have foreseen, Real Madrid and Barcelona find themselves facing the exit door after two resounding defeats to German opponents. The combined score from the two ties stands at 8-1 to Germany on aggregate, and the prospect of an all-German final looks the most likely outcome. Surely there's no way back for either of the Spanish sides?

Barcelona look to be all but out of the running for the final, and although they have a team of world beaters with the potential to perform miracles, the task looks too difficult given the lacklustre form of Lionel Messi and the quality of their opponents.

Bayern have been described as the most in-form side in Europe this season and Barca's inability to create any meaningful chances in the Allianz Arena will not have done anything to persuade punters that they should be backing them to qualify at the price of 2322/1.

In contrast, Real Madrid's away goal gives them the faintest of hopes of being able to overturn their 3 goal deficit and progress through to the final. Madrid are 1.594/7 to win on the night but it will take more than mere victory to ensure that the reigning Spanish champions progress to Wembley, and they are priced out at 12.5n/a to go on and win the final.

With Madrid's firepower up front, featuring the tournament's top goalscorer, Cristiano Ronaldo, the issue will not be whether they are able to score the goals required, but more whether they will be able to stop Dortmund, and Lewandowski in particular, from adding to the aggregate score and putting the tie to bed. You can back Madrid to qualify for the final at odds of 5.85/1.

An all-German final is now priced at 1.241/4 after both sides registered such resounding victories with the superior performances to boot. Bayern are currently favourites to win Europe's biggest prize at 1.715/7 while Dortmund are currently trading at 3.1511/5. Despite the fact that Bayern have run away with the Bundesliga this season, I'd expect an all-German final to be much more closely contested than the current odds suggest. 

Bayern have the edge on Dortmund in their head-to-head record this season with two wins and one draw in league and cup competitions. Saying that, all three of the previous match ups took place in the Allianz Arena so a prospective clash at Wembley may not necessarily adhere to the form guide. 

Dortmund's dominant display against Madrid was arguably more impressive than Bayern's the previous evening, with Graeme Souness lauding the game as the greatest single Champions League showing he has ever witnessed. The Dortmund team have a youthful energy and abundance of pace which the older legs of Bayern will surely be wary of. If any team will be able to match Bayern Munich's work ethic and tenacity it will be Jurgen Klopp's Dortmund side and I will be having a punt on them to win the Champions League at 3.1511/5.

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Europa League Betting: Sporting Lisbon gunning to upset Spanish party

It’s a tall order, no doubt, but Sporting have defied poor league form to upset the odds before.

Sporting Lisbon are the Europa League's outsiders in every sense of the word but can the unfancied Portuguese side prevent an all-Spanish final?

It might have been another disappointing domestic campaign for Sporting but all will be forgiven if they somehow end up in a major European final. To do so, they will have to see off Manchester United's conquerors Athletic Bilbao, the 2.92/1 favourites to win the competition.

It's a tall order, no doubt, but Sporting have defied poor league form to upset the odds before. Ricardo Sa Pinto's men have already seen off Manchester City in this year's competition and if their performance at Eastlands is anything to go by, they aren't likely to be intimidated this time either.

After finishing a dispiriting 36 points behind champions Porto last season, Sporting had hoped for a new dawn with the appointment of Domingos Paciencia - who led Braga to last year's Europa League final.

But there was to be no dramatic turnaround. Paciencia was eventually dismissed after a run of just two wins in ten in all competitions proved too much to stomach. Following a revival, of sorts, Sporting are now fourth in Portugal's top flight, 13 points off the pace at the top.

They are by no means the first to find themselves gate crashing another country's party in the last four of Europe, though it hasn't always gone the way of the outsider. In last year's Europa League, Villarreal found themselves short of friends, with Braga, Porto and Benfica making up the final four. And on that occasion the Portuguese procession continued, with the Spaniards making way for a Braga v Porto final.

But there is precedent to inspire Sa Pinto's men. In 2008/09, Barcelona had three English clubs for company in the semi-finals of the Champions League. It didn't bother them one jot as they promptly beat Chelsea before seeing off Manchester United in the final. And just two years earlier AC Milan managed a similar feat, toppling Man United in the last four, prior to outgunning Liverpool in the final.

Sporting Lisbon are 7.87/1 to win the competition outright and perhaps a slightly more probable 2.82/1 to triumph in the first leg of their semi-final.

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Caulfield Cup Betting: Europe set to send strong raiding party

Timeform Features / Timeform / 31 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Last year's Melbourne Cup winner Americain has been handed top-weight for the Caulfield Cup

"Of the home contingent, last year's winner Descarado once again lines up and is allotted a weight of 8-12, 8 lb higher than his mark last year."

The Caulfield Cup is set to take place on October 15 and Europe are sending a very strong team this year to try and capture the $2,500,000 race...

Last year's Melbourne Cup winner Americain was allotted top-weight of 9-02 for the Caulfield Cup on Tuesday afternoon in a race that may serve as a prep-run for the Alain de Royre Dupre trained six-year-old before he looks to defend his Flemington crown on November 1.

Americain produced a career-best to land the 2010 running of the Melbourne Cup, catching So You Think with a hundred and fifty yards to go, before drawing clear to score by two and a quarter lengths, earning himself a Timeform rating of 126.

Although he has been below his very best this season, finishing down the field in both the Prix Kergorlay and the Prix de Bababeville, he Melbourne Cup has always been his seasonal objective, a race for which he is currently available at [22]. Americain is currently uncertain to line-up in the Caulfield Cup, with the Cox Plate also being touted by connections as a possible prep-race for the November showpiece.

The British challenge for the Caulfield Cup is headed by Brian Meehan's Breeders' Cup winner Dangerous Midge (Timeform rated 125), set to carry 9-01. He has not been seen since disappointing in the Dubai Sheema Classic, where he finished last of 14 behind Rewilding back in March, but he has proven in the past he can go well when fresh and connections could decide to send him straight to Caulfield.

Michael Bell's Tactician (115) is another British entrant and stands to race off a weight of 8-05. The four-year-old has shown a decent amount of progression in his relatively short career and was at his very best last time out, when he produced a bold front-running display to finish second in the Ebor at York, collared only late on by another who could join him in Australia, Brian Ellison's Moyenne Corniche who could go for the Melbourne Cup.

Group 3 Glorious Stakes winner Drunken Sailor (121) also holds an entry at this stage and is currently priced at [55.0] on Betfair. The Luca Cumani trained six-year-old missed the cut for the Melbourne Cup last year but has looked better this season, winning the listed Aston Park Stakes by seven lengths before his Goodwood success.

The strong pace that the Caulfield Cup is often run at will suit Drunken Sailor, who is seen at his very best when held-up given such circumstances and he is notably entered and available to back at [55.0] for the Melbourne Cup, too.

Of the home contingent, last year's winner Descarado once again lines up and is allotted a weight of 8-12, 8 lb higher than his mark last year. He is currently available to be backed at [50.0], and is bidding to become the first horse to win back-to-back Caulfield Cups since Rising Fast did so in 1955.

Amongst the market principals are Lights of Heaven and Scarlett Lady, who are priced [9.2] and [11.5] respectively and arrive at Caulfield with every chance, having won over £500,000 between them already this season.

James Fanshawe holds a strong hand in Saturday's Haydock Sprint Cup, with Deacon Blues the current favourite and Society Rock also towards the head of the betting, but Timeform reckon the prize could be going back to another Newmarket yard as the race to be crowned Europe's Champion sprinter draws closer to a conclusion......

The news that Andre Fabre's Derby winner Pour Moi has been forced into retirement through injury this week means the market for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp in October has been thrown wide open. Timeform look at the main contenders for Europe's premier middle-distance contest......

There was some outstanding racing in the US, despite the intervention of Hurricane Irene. Simon Rowlands reveals the ratings to come out of it as well as out of some of the Group races in Europe....

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Vlad Spoils Belgian's Party

Poker News / Matthew Pitt / 28 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Geshkenbein captures the EPT Snowfest title

At the start of the fifth and final day of play (six if you include the two Day 1s) all the talk surrounding the European Poker Tour Snowfest final table was the fact there were three Belgian nationals out of the eight players, all with a great chance of becoming the very first Belgian EPT Champion.

By the time play had some to an end, some ten hours after it had begun, the Belgian's were forgotten and it was Russian Vladimir Geshkenbein who was being held aloft by his army of fans in scenes that would not look out of place at a football match back in his homeland of Russian (though he was raised in Switzerland and now resides in Malta.)

Geshkenbein, known as "Beyne" when he is plying his trade online, managed to turn his 30,000 starting stack into a field leading 235,000 during Day 1b and manage to keep this massive stack all the way to the final table, where he started fourth out of eight, with a stack of 1,678,000. Whilst the majority of the final table were content with drinking water, fruit juices and energy drinks, Geshkenbein sat down with a vodka and lemon with a small stuffed monkey and donning a snakeskin cowboy hat and he continued to drink throughout the day and night of the final table!

The Russian, famed for his extremely loose-aggressive style, saw his stack fluctuate wildly but once he had all but eliminated Cristian Dragomir when five handed he never looked back. In that particular hand the flop read Jd-2d-6h and Geshkenbein check-raised Dragomir's 255,000 bet all in. After almost five minutes Dragomir called and turned over 8s8d and was up against the KhTh of Geshkenbein. The eights stayed in front as the 4s fell on the turn but the 9h was one of Geshkenbein's outs and it left his Romanian opponent, who was once berated by Phil Hellmuth at the WSOP, with less than two big blind.

That hand gave Geshkenbein over 5,000,000 chips and the ammunition to make life very difficult for his opponents, who were having a hard time putting him on a hand at any point of the tournament. He got extremely lucky in a hand with fourth place finisher Giacomo Maisto when he found himself calling an all in bet with Qd4d on a 9s-8c-Qc flop to find himself up against QsTc. The 2s on the turn kept him behind but the 4h on the river was the three outer he was looking for.

Half hour later and he called a 20 big blind shove from Koen De Visscher, one of the two Belgian's in the top three, with JsJc, which held against Ac7c to set up a heads up encounter with Kevin Vandersmissen, a very takented player who was superb from start to finish in this tournament. Heads-up only last a few hands, much to the disappointment of the rail who were expecting an epic encounter. In the final hand Geshkenbein raised, Vandermissen three-bet then called when the Russian moved all-in. Geshkenbein held a less than stellar Ah9d but it was still ahead of the KdTs of his Belgian opponent. The flop came down As-9h-8d, almost locking the hand up for Geshkenbein but even he looked worried when the turn brought the Ks into play. However, any thoughts of a major suckout were soon dismissed as the river came down 5s to deny Belgium their first-ever EPT Champion, though Vandersmissen did pick up €260,000 for his efforts over the week.

The €390,000 Geshkenbein picked up represents the largest cash of his career, his previous best being his first live cash when he won the 2009 APPT Macau High Roller event for $266,705 after beating Johnny Chan heads up. He may not be a household name just yet but his skills and personality in this particular event would make me think that there is much more to come from this young man in the future. Mark my words!

Final table payouts

1st place: Vladimir Geshkenbein - €390,000
2nd place: Kevin Vandersmissen - €260,000
3rd place: Koen De Visscher - €147,000
4th place: Giacomo Maisto - €100,000
5th place: Cristian Dragomir - €81,000
6th place: Philip Meulyzer - €65,000
7th place: Denis Murphy - €49,000
8th place: Morten Mortensen - €35,000

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