Champions League Betting: Should Wembley already be preparing for a German party?

Following a sensational week of Champions League football, Callum Davis looks at the fallout from the first legs of the semi-inals and casts an eye over the odds for the eventual winner of the tournament.

In a Champions League week which few football fans would have foreseen, Real Madrid and Barcelona find themselves facing the exit door after two resounding defeats to German opponents. The combined score from the two ties stands at 8-1 to Germany on aggregate, and the prospect of an all-German final looks the most likely outcome. Surely there's no way back for either of the Spanish sides?

Barcelona look to be all but out of the running for the final, and although they have a team of world beaters with the potential to perform miracles, the task looks too difficult given the lacklustre form of Lionel Messi and the quality of their opponents.

Bayern have been described as the most in-form side in Europe this season and Barca's inability to create any meaningful chances in the Allianz Arena will not have done anything to persuade punters that they should be backing them to qualify at the price of 2322/1.

In contrast, Real Madrid's away goal gives them the faintest of hopes of being able to overturn their 3 goal deficit and progress through to the final. Madrid are 1.594/7 to win on the night but it will take more than mere victory to ensure that the reigning Spanish champions progress to Wembley, and they are priced out at 12.5n/a to go on and win the final.

With Madrid's firepower up front, featuring the tournament's top goalscorer, Cristiano Ronaldo, the issue will not be whether they are able to score the goals required, but more whether they will be able to stop Dortmund, and Lewandowski in particular, from adding to the aggregate score and putting the tie to bed. You can back Madrid to qualify for the final at odds of 5.85/1.

An all-German final is now priced at 1.241/4 after both sides registered such resounding victories with the superior performances to boot. Bayern are currently favourites to win Europe's biggest prize at 1.715/7 while Dortmund are currently trading at 3.1511/5. Despite the fact that Bayern have run away with the Bundesliga this season, I'd expect an all-German final to be much more closely contested than the current odds suggest. 

Bayern have the edge on Dortmund in their head-to-head record this season with two wins and one draw in league and cup competitions. Saying that, all three of the previous match ups took place in the Allianz Arena so a prospective clash at Wembley may not necessarily adhere to the form guide. 

Dortmund's dominant display against Madrid was arguably more impressive than Bayern's the previous evening, with Graeme Souness lauding the game as the greatest single Champions League showing he has ever witnessed. The Dortmund team have a youthful energy and abundance of pace which the older legs of Bayern will surely be wary of. If any team will be able to match Bayern Munich's work ethic and tenacity it will be Jurgen Klopp's Dortmund side and I will be having a punt on them to win the Champions League at 3.1511/5.

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Preparing for the Betfair Live! Tournament

Poker News / Editor / 08 February 2011 / Leave a comment

I quickly learned everything I needed to know. If I should get poisoned at the tournament I need only eat a lot of salt, then head straight for the gadget kit in my spy car.

When they asked me to enter and write about a poker tournament I said "Maybe." Three seconds later, after quickly realising that this probably wasn't the best time to be playing it cool, I said "Yes." When I found out there'd be free massages I ran all the way home and started baking a basket of my best "Please Let Me Do This" muffins. The muffins were a disaster. They failed to become anything more than a muffin soup (patent pending), but it didn't matter, because everyone else was either too busy or in Argentina.

I had just one question:"What is poker?" But before they could give me an answer I had an even better question: "Just how free are these free massages?" The answer was "Very." Safe in the knowledge that I might soon be free of the crippling pain which has haunted my neck for the past three months, I found myself trapped in a Rocky style training montage, but instead of running up and down steps and punching dead cattle, I was reading the Wikipedia page for Texas Hold'em and watching Casino Royale. I quickly learned everything I needed to know. If I should get poisoned at the tournament I need only eat a lot of salt, then head straight for the gadget kit in my spy car.

I began to plot my strategies for the tournament. From what I could tell, based on all the films I watched, the winner usually showed their hand last and did so in a dramatic fashion.
I just need to make sure that it's always my turn to show my cards last. This can easily be achieved by initiating a game of musical chairs.

My only real concern is which persona and costume I'm going use. I assume most people will go for the obvious James Bond/Tuxedo combo or the Loud Mouthed Texan/Cowboy hat. I'll probably go for the Brothel Madame who doesn't take crap from anyone/wedding dress setup, just because I found the dress in a skip the other day and I can't imagine when else I'll ever get to use it.

According to the leaflet they gave me there's £37,000 of prize money and 170 players each paying £250 to enter. If nobody seems to be having fun I'm sure we can all agree to just cut our losses, call it a draw, take £217.65 each and go see a show together. Les Miserables is on around the corner.

So I'll see you at the Fox Poker Club on February 12th and 13th for Betfair Live! (I don't know if it's live like "You're live on TV, please don't swear" or live like "You've got to stop living your life like this. What would your father say if he could see you now?)

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