Spanish Football: Mourinho wreaks Real Madrid havoc

Jose Mourinho: "It's very easy to analyse the thing with Pepe. His problem has a name, and that name is Raphael Varane. It isn't easy for a man aged 31 with a lot of experience behind him to be blown out of the water by a kid of 19."

With Barcelona's title coronation imminent, Real Madrid's outspoken manager couldn't resist a few scathing digs at those around him...

At Chelsea and subsequently Inter, Jose Mourinho was famed for his father-like love for his players and fierce loyalty to those in the dressing room. However, a tempestuous three-year tenure at Real Madrid now looks set to end in bitter acrimony.

Mourinho, overwhelming favourite for the Chelsea job at around 1.330/100 and second favourite to arrive at Old Trafford after Sir Alex Ferguson's retirement announcement, poured further petrol on the fire he began in the wake of Madrid's Champions League exit to Borussia Dortmund last week.

The Portuguese boss followed up his candid post-match press conference comments, in which he all but pledged his immediate future to managing back in England, by launching scathing attacks on a few of his Madrid players and the club's former managers.

Firstly, he defended his achievements of reaching three Champions League semi-finals at the Bernabeu by reeling off the names of 18 previous managers who hadn't brought home the trophy either.

"Eighteen coaches in 21 years, five semi-finals. Meanwhile, that rubbish Mourinho got to three in three years. Three in three after five in 21 years? That shows that it is not easy. I repeat: I don't want to 'nearly' get there, nearly is nothing to me. But that league record is mine."

But his most stinging comments were reserved for dropped goalkeeper Iker Casillas, by directly suggesting that he should have brought in his replacement at the end of his first season instead of his second.

Mourinho then topped that this week with an even more blatant rant about Pepe, who he has dropped in favour of teenage centre-back Raphael Varane, after the Portuguese defender stuck up for Casillas, saying:

"It's very easy to analyse the thing with Pepe. His problem has a name, and that name is Raphael Varane. It isn't easy for a man aged 31 with a lot of experience behind him to be blown out of the water by a kid of 19."

Anything less than a win for Real over sixth-placed Malaga on Wednesday night, where with Los Blancos rated at 1.292/7, will see Barca lift the title with four games to spare.

Of course, Mourinho still has one more chance of securing another trophy before parting company at the Bernabeu when his side take on Atletico Madrid in the Copa del Rey 
final next Friday priced at 1.282/7 for glory.

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Davis Cup Semi-Finals: Much-changed Spanish side worth opposing

"The key to this tie is Almagro. If he can be beaten by either Isner or Querrey then the upset could be on. The tactic here looks to be a cheap lay of Spain at 1.152/13 and trade from there."

Fresh from his daily US Open tipping exploits Sean Calvert is back to preview the weekend's Davis Cup semi-finals, and our man fancies the USA to put up a good fight against Spain...

The ATP Tour takes a break this week following the US Open, but it's still a big week for tennis as attention switches to the Davis Cup.

It's the World Group semi finals and the World Group play offs this weekend and the big matches are Spain vs USA and Argentina vs Czech Republic in a familiar-looking semi final line-up.

Argentina and Spain were last year's finalists, while the USA have won the Davis Cup on 32 occasions and the Czech Republic have been regulars in the latter stages in recent years.

The Spain vs USA tie is a fascinating one, with the Spanish hosts an obvious pick on the clay of Parque Hermanos Castro in Gijon, but they are without the injured Rafa Nadal and soon to be retired Juan Carlos Ferrero, plus there's no Fernando Verdasco or Feli Lopez.

So they go with David Ferrer and Nico Almagro in the singles and Marcel Granollers and Marc Lopez in the doubles, which is still a strong-looking side, but far from unbeatable.

The USA team has problems of its own without the retired Andy Roddick and Mardy Fish, who has health issues, so they rely on John Isner and Sam Querrey in singles and the world number one doubles team the Bryan brothers.

Isner has an excellent record in Davis Cup, winning his last four ties in a row all on clay against the likes of Roger Federer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Gilles Simon, plus he took Novak Djokovic to five sets on clay as well.

Every Davis Cup match that Isner and Querrey have played so far has been on clay, so they know their way around the red dirt courts and won't be phased by facing a potentially jaded Ferrer and an Almagro that still has it all to prove in really big matches.

The Bryan brothers have only ever lost two Davis Cup doubles matches and the last one was back in 2008, so the USA side will surely take at least one point into Sunday.

The key to this tie is Almagro. If he can be beaten by either Isner or Querrey then the upset could be on. The tactic here looks to be a cheap lay of Spain at 1.152/13 and trade from there.

The Argentina vs Czech Republic tie hinges largely on the fitness of Juan Martin Del Potro, who has been advised by doctors to rest his injured wrist for two weeks, but who is desperate to play and has said that he will.

The hosts have Leonardo Mayer standing by, but if Delpo is either below par or unable to play both singles rubbers the hosts could be vulnerable to their first ever defeat at the Parque Roca.

David Nalbandian, who usually forms a crack doubles team with Eduardo Schwank in Davis Cup is also out injured and so Carlos Berlocq comes in for his debut in this competition.

The Czechs, as ever, will rely on Tomas Berdych and Radek Stepanek, presumably in doubles as well as singles, as they have Lukas Rosol and Ivo Minar as their other two nominations and they have never played a Davis Cup doubles tie.

Berdych and Stepanek have a fine Davis Cup doubles record as a partnership and they should be too good for the rookie Argentine pair and Berdych has a 6-0 record over Juan Monaco, so this will probably come down to the Berydch v Delpo clash.

And let's not overlook Stepanek, who has a 3-1 career head-to-head record over Del Potro and 4-2 over Monaco, who he also beat in Cincy recently.

Monaco did take care of Steps easily on clay though in Rome this year and you would expect him to do so again, but the value for me lies with the Czechs.

This should be another very close match and the back to lay value is with the Czech Republic at around 2.89/5.

Recommended Bets

Lay Spain at 1.152/13 with a view to trading
Back to lay Czech Republic at 2.89/5

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Spanish Football: Llorente departure would be a huge blow for Bilbao

"Even if Llorente stays this month, you can imagine Barcelona and Real Madrid fighting for him in January."

Ben Lyttleton discusses what losing Fernando Llorente could mean to last season's entertainers Athletic Bilbao...

How important can one player be to a club and what is the impact of keeping him for the final year of his contract if he doesn't want to stay there? That was the dilemma that Arsenal coach Arsene Wenger had to wrestle with last week, eventually deciding that selling captain, top scorer and talisman Robin van Persie for the healthy sum of £24m was the answer.

And now the bosses at Athletic Bilbao have the same problem after Fernando Llorente announced last week that he would not be extending his contract which runs out in 12 months.

That, and the ongoing transfer saga of his team-mate Javi Martinez to Bayern Munich, which is expected to be tied up this week, overshadowed Athletic's start to their new season, a campaign which began with inspirational coach Marcelo Bielsa almost losing his job after coming to blows with the site manager of Athletic's Lezama training-ground, when he discovered work scheduled to be done over the summer was not completed.

Last season Athletic reached the Europa League and Copa del Rey finals, winning admirers from all over the world for their high-intensity style of play and generation of Basque-only young players.

I fear that last season was their one and only chance of success: not because the talent is not there ­ behind the jewels of Martinez and Llorente are the likes of Ander Herrera, Iker Munian, Oscar de Marcos, Andoni Iraola and Markel Susaeta ­and nor because this team has not won a trophy since 1984 (the League and Cup double followed by the SuperCup). Bielsa, meanwhile, last won a club trophy in 1998.

No, I feel that part of the genius of Bielsa's methodology, which is said to be obsessive, intense, and pressurised, is that the novelty factor naturally wears off in year two of the project. Perhaps it is no coincidence that his last 10 years in employment were as a national coach, where his work was in short, sharp bursts.

If anything, Athletic's opening match of the season against Real Betis on Sunday night was a microcosm of last season: the players, without Martinez and Llorente (who was the subject of hateful banners unfurled by the Athletic support) struggled early on and seemed lost without their two key players. At half-time they were 3-0 down. Then they rallied brilliantly and brought it back to 3-3 but were so shattered by the effort that Betis ran out 5-3 winners.

As always, there was enough quality to take some positives from the performance, but with fourth place in La Liga up for grabs, even that looks like a stretch for this Athletic team, especially if Llorente does leave this month. Aritz Aduriz, while a decent player, simply isn't in Llorente's class and Bielsa's impact last year might not carry with it the same sprinkle of magic-dust.

Even if Llorente stays this month, you can imagine Barcelona and Real Madrid fighting for him in January.

A decent outside bet for fourth place would be Sevilla, who have already come in to 3.613/5 in the Top 4 Finish market after an opening-day win over Getafe. The club has gone for stability this summer: keeping Michel as coach, and key players Ivan Rakitic (outstanding on Saturday), Jesus Navas and Alvaro Negredo, who scored the winner.

At the top, Barcelona are already clear of Real Madrid, after beating Real Sociedad 5-1 with the champions drew 1-1 with Valencia. After just one game, Barcelona have come from 2.26/5 to 1.768/11 favourites, with Madrid drifting to 2.3411/8.

There are bound to be plenty more twists and turns before this season ends; the first clash between the two sides is on Wednesday in the Super Cup first leg, with home side Barcelona 1.845/6 to win and Madrid, who won at Camp Nou last season, 4.3100/30.

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Europa League Betting: Sporting Lisbon gunning to upset Spanish party

It’s a tall order, no doubt, but Sporting have defied poor league form to upset the odds before.

Sporting Lisbon are the Europa League's outsiders in every sense of the word but can the unfancied Portuguese side prevent an all-Spanish final?

It might have been another disappointing domestic campaign for Sporting but all will be forgiven if they somehow end up in a major European final. To do so, they will have to see off Manchester United's conquerors Athletic Bilbao, the 2.92/1 favourites to win the competition.

It's a tall order, no doubt, but Sporting have defied poor league form to upset the odds before. Ricardo Sa Pinto's men have already seen off Manchester City in this year's competition and if their performance at Eastlands is anything to go by, they aren't likely to be intimidated this time either.

After finishing a dispiriting 36 points behind champions Porto last season, Sporting had hoped for a new dawn with the appointment of Domingos Paciencia - who led Braga to last year's Europa League final.

But there was to be no dramatic turnaround. Paciencia was eventually dismissed after a run of just two wins in ten in all competitions proved too much to stomach. Following a revival, of sorts, Sporting are now fourth in Portugal's top flight, 13 points off the pace at the top.

They are by no means the first to find themselves gate crashing another country's party in the last four of Europe, though it hasn't always gone the way of the outsider. In last year's Europa League, Villarreal found themselves short of friends, with Braga, Porto and Benfica making up the final four. And on that occasion the Portuguese procession continued, with the Spaniards making way for a Braga v Porto final.

But there is precedent to inspire Sa Pinto's men. In 2008/09, Barcelona had three English clubs for company in the semi-finals of the Champions League. It didn't bother them one jot as they promptly beat Chelsea before seeing off Manchester United in the final. And just two years earlier AC Milan managed a similar feat, toppling Man United in the last four, prior to outgunning Liverpool in the final.

Sporting Lisbon are 7.87/1 to win the competition outright and perhaps a slightly more probable 2.82/1 to triumph in the first leg of their semi-final.

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Gea whizz! United sign Spanish goalkeeper

Premier League / Maxliu / 25 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Woo-hoo, I'm moving to the north of England

"An all-time goalkeeping nadir for United? The loan signing of Andy Goram would take some beating."

Sir Alex Ferguson moves speedily to snap up replacement for Edwin van der Sar. But will the young Spaniard fill the Dutchman's gloves?

Manchester United have smashed the British transfer fee for a goalkeeper by agreeing to sign David de Gea from Atletico Madrid for around £17 million.

Sir Alex Ferguson has been tracking the 20-year-old stopper, who is uncapped for Spain, as Edwin van der Sar prepares to hang up his gloves after this Saturday's Champions League Final. United are a cracking price at [4.1] to win the match with opponents Barcelona [2.06].

The United boss believes he has the right man and has signalled his confidence in de Gea by moving quickly. Following the retirement of Peter Schmeichel in 1999, United struggled to find a replacement until van der Sar arrived at Old Trafford in 2005.

During those six years, Mark Bosnich, Raymond van der Gouw, Massimo Taibi and Roy Carroll all had spells in the first team. Ferguson thought he'd found his man in 2000 with the signing of World Cup winner Fabien Barthez. However, after increasingly erratic and eccentric displays, on and off the pitch, the Frenchman was dropped and shipped out in 2004. An all-time goalkeeping nadir for United? The loan signing of Andy Goram in 2001 would take some beating.

Van der Sar's arrival provided stability, the kind of automatic first name on the teamsheet managers long for. It's hard to think of a mistake he made - before his blunder against West Brom earlier this season scuppered United's 100 percent Premier League home record - so de Gea is certainly stepping into a massive pair of gloves.

At 20, we might have expected him to serve an apprenticeship on the sidelines before stepping up in a season or two. However, that approach didn't work for Ben Foster and the size of the transfer fee leaves us in no doubt: Ferguson will throw his new goalkeeper in at the deep end from the start of next season.

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Spanish Grand Prix Betting: Can Webber go all the way from pole?

Formula One / James Frankland / 21 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Mark Webber starts in pole but can he hold of his team-mate?

"At one of his favourite tracks, Webber is set fair for his first win of the season."

Qualifying at Catalunya is over and there's a surprise at the front of the grid. James Frankland explains what this means for the Betfair markets and selects his best Spanish GP bets.

Mark Webber turned the tables on Sebastian Vettel by beating the World Champion to taken pole position for tomorrow's Spanish Grand Prix in Barcelona. The Australian driver has been comfortable at the circuit throughout free practice and maintained his advantage during qualifying, pipping Vettel by two tenths of a second.

The nearest non-Red Bull car, Lewis Hamilton's McLaren-Mercedes, was nearly a full second slower than Webber and with the Barcelona circuit akin to a playground for Adrian Newey's aerodynamically-superior RB7s, it's hard to see any other result than the fourth win out of five for the Milton Keynes-based squad.

Webber came into this race knowing that he had to strike back at Vettel to keep himself in contention for the title. He faced the same situation last year, then 32 points behind, this year 38, and at one of his favourite tracks is set fair for his first win of the season. Vettel qualified second without the use of his KERS system and it remains to be seen if he will be able to use it in the race. If not, he'll lose one of the main tools with which to overhaul Webber.

The rest of the field would seem to be contesting third place, the battle to be 'best of the rest'. Hamilton currently occupies that position although his old rival Fernando Alonso was just three thousandths of a second behind and lines up fourth. The battle between them will be fascinating and with the Red Bulls likely to walk off into the distance, the market for a podium finish with Alonso is worth a look at [2.14]. He's racing in front of his home crowd, so don't expect him to settle for fourth place come race day.

You may also want to look at the Total Classified Drivers market for some value. Recently we've seen a high number of cars finishing races - 23 of 24 in China and 22 last time out in Turkey - so the reliability is clearly there at present. The current market for more than 19.5 cars finishing is at [2.14] at a track where the teams test extensively.

Williams' performance took a big step forward in Barcelona in the hands of rookie driver Pastor Maldonado. The Venezuelan qualified ninth, a marked improvement on recent races. The team have yet to score any points this season but their talented youngster could be about to end the drought. He's available at [2.00] for a points finish.

Also worth considering in this market is Nick Heidfeld in the Renault. A spectacular fire in Saturday's practice session caused him to miss qualifying and forcing him to start 24th and last. However, in the last two races we've seen drivers charge through from the back, Webber finishing third from 18th in China, and Kamui Kobayashi taking tenth having started 23rd last time out in Turkey. Heidfeld's car can be quick, so perhaps mark him down for some points also.

Recommended Bets
Mark Webber to win @ [2.32]
Pastor Maldonado to score points @ [2.00]
Over 19.5 cars to be classified @ [2.16]

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Trophee Hassan II Betting: Spanish trio the ones to follow

Golf Bets / Mike Norman / 29 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Alvaro Velasco is back on the main tour after topping last season’s Challenge Tour money list

"Incredibly, Carlos Del Moral was six over par after just 11 holes on Thursday, but he then played the next 61 holes in exactly the same number as eventual winner Paul Lawrie."

It's another low key affair on the European Tour this week so Mike Norman is pinning his hopes on a trio of Spanish players, two of which have been very consistent in 2011.

Throughout this season Mike will give one selection in each of the Winner, Top Five Finish and Top Ten Finish markets every week a European Tour event is being played.

The Gulf Swing apart, it's been pretty dire stuff on the European Tour so far this year, and with the US Masters just around the corner I'm afraid we've got another low-quality field at this week's Trophee Hassan II.

Welshman Rhys Davies was a bit of a 'find' in 2010 and he's back in Morocco to defend this week, albeit at a completely different venue to where he secured his maiden Tour victory. His form tailed-off somewhat once he was being touted as a candidate for Colin Montgomerie's Ryder Cup team but a reproduction of anything he showed last spring will see him go well at odds of [55.0].

Davies was of course plying his trade on the Challenge Tour the season before last, and it's another Challenge Tour graduate - and two of his Spanish compatriots - that make up my trio of selections this week.

Winner

Rafael Cabrera-Bello continued him impressive run of figures at last week's Open de Andalucia; his 11th place finish was his sixth consecutive top-30 finish on the European Tour. I confess to knowing very little about how the Golf du Palais Royal (it's been 12 years since the Moroccan Open was played here) and Golf de L'Ocean courses will play during the next four days, but the indications are that with wide fairways on both courses, and therefore many greens to be hit in regulation, then someone who can putt well will stand a great chance of winning. Cabrera-Bello ranks fifth in Putts per GIR on the Tour this season which is highly encouraging.

From the footage that I saw of this emerging Spaniard last week he was regularly leaving his approach shots just marginally outside decent birdie range, so it was testament to his ability and consistency that he climbed the leaderboard as the week progressed. If he can dial in his approach shots just a few feet closer this week then the [24.0] currently available in the Winner market could look very big come Sunday afternoon.

Top Five Finish

One player who may well break through on the European Tour this season is that Challenge Tour graduate I referred too earlier - Alvaro Velasco. True, Velasco has played on the main Tour previously - mainly in 2008 and 2009 where he recorded just six top-10 finishes in 55 events - but the relegation to golf's second tier did him no harm at all last season. The 29-year-old recorded six top-10 finishes from just 16 events; his two victories and one second place finish enabling him to finish top of the Challenge Tour money list.

Velasco has finished in the money in seven of the eight events he has played this season, with his best result coming at the prestigious Dubai Desert Classic where he finished in a highly-credible tie for fourth place. A reproduction of that form will give us a great run for our money at odds of [15.0] in this market.

Top Ten Finish

We won't get rich backing Carlos Del Moral at [6.0] but he represents an extremely solid selection. Like Cabrera-Bello he has been very consistent this season, making the cut in all six events he's played and recording four top-25 finishes (including a fifth place finish when he was a selection two weeks ago). And his tie for 36th place last week was far better than it suggests. Incredibly, Del Moral was six over par after just 11 holes on Thursday, but he then played the next 61 holes in exactly the same number as eventual winner Paul Lawrie. He also made a staggering 19 birdies in those 61 holes, more than any other player in the whole field.

Recommended Bets

Back Rafael Cabrera-Bello at [24.0] in Winner market
Back Alvaro Velasco at [15.0] in Top Five Finish market
Back Carlos Del Moral at [6.0] in Top Ten Finish market

Total pts bet this season (one pt bet per selection): 27
Total pts returned: 10.75
2011 European Tour season Profit/Loss: -16.25

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