"Even if Llorente stays this month, you can imagine Barcelona and Real Madrid fighting for him in January."
Ben Lyttleton discusses what losing Fernando Llorente could mean to last season's entertainers Athletic Bilbao...
How important can one player be to a club and what is the impact of keeping him for the final year of his contract if he doesn't want to stay there? That was the dilemma that Arsenal coach Arsene Wenger had to wrestle with last week, eventually deciding that selling captain, top scorer and talisman Robin van Persie for the healthy sum of £24m was the answer.
And now the bosses at Athletic Bilbao have the same problem after Fernando Llorente announced last week that he would not be extending his contract which runs out in 12 months.
That, and the ongoing transfer saga of his team-mate Javi Martinez to Bayern Munich, which is expected to be tied up this week, overshadowed Athletic's start to their new season, a campaign which began with inspirational coach Marcelo Bielsa almost losing his job after coming to blows with the site manager of Athletic's Lezama training-ground, when he discovered work scheduled to be done over the summer was not completed.
Last season Athletic reached the Europa League and Copa del Rey finals, winning admirers from all over the world for their high-intensity style of play and generation of Basque-only young players.
I fear that last season was their one and only chance of success: not because the talent is not there behind the jewels of Martinez and Llorente are the likes of Ander Herrera, Iker Munian, Oscar de Marcos, Andoni Iraola and Markel Susaeta and nor because this team has not won a trophy since 1984 (the League and Cup double followed by the SuperCup). Bielsa, meanwhile, last won a club trophy in 1998.
No, I feel that part of the genius of Bielsa's methodology, which is said to be obsessive, intense, and pressurised, is that the novelty factor naturally wears off in year two of the project. Perhaps it is no coincidence that his last 10 years in employment were as a national coach, where his work was in short, sharp bursts.
If anything, Athletic's opening match of the season against Real Betis on Sunday night was a microcosm of last season: the players, without Martinez and Llorente (who was the subject of hateful banners unfurled by the Athletic support) struggled early on and seemed lost without their two key players. At half-time they were 3-0 down. Then they rallied brilliantly and brought it back to 3-3 but were so shattered by the effort that Betis ran out 5-3 winners.
As always, there was enough quality to take some positives from the performance, but with fourth place in La Liga up for grabs, even that looks like a stretch for this Athletic team, especially if Llorente does leave this month. Aritz Aduriz, while a decent player, simply isn't in Llorente's class and Bielsa's impact last year might not carry with it the same sprinkle of magic-dust.
Even if Llorente stays this month, you can imagine Barcelona and Real Madrid fighting for him in January.
A decent outside bet for fourth place would be Sevilla, who have already come in to 3.613/5 in the Top 4 Finish market after an opening-day win over Getafe. The club has gone for stability this summer: keeping Michel as coach, and key players Ivan Rakitic (outstanding on Saturday), Jesus Navas and Alvaro Negredo, who scored the winner.
At the top, Barcelona are already clear of Real Madrid, after beating Real Sociedad 5-1 with the champions drew 1-1 with Valencia. After just one game, Barcelona have come from 2.26/5 to 1.768/11 favourites, with Madrid drifting to 2.3411/8.
There are bound to be plenty more twists and turns before this season ends; the first clash between the two sides is on Wednesday in the Super Cup first leg, with home side Barcelona 1.845/6 to win and Madrid, who won at Camp Nou last season, 4.3100/30.
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