Golf Bets 
/ Mike Norman / 29 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Alvaro Velasco is back on the main tour after topping last season’s Challenge Tour money list
"Incredibly, Carlos Del Moral was six over par after just 11 holes on Thursday, but he then played the next 61 holes in exactly the same number as eventual winner Paul Lawrie."
It's another low key affair on the European Tour this week so Mike Norman is pinning his hopes on a trio of Spanish players, two of which have been very consistent in 2011.
Throughout this season Mike will give one selection in each of the Winner, Top Five Finish and Top Ten Finish markets every week a European Tour event is being played.
The Gulf Swing apart, it's been pretty dire stuff on the European Tour so far this year, and with the US Masters just around the corner I'm afraid we've got another low-quality field at this week's Trophee Hassan II.
Welshman Rhys Davies was a bit of a 'find' in 2010 and he's back in Morocco to defend this week, albeit at a completely different venue to where he secured his maiden Tour victory. His form tailed-off somewhat once he was being touted as a candidate for Colin Montgomerie's Ryder Cup team but a reproduction of anything he showed last spring will see him go well at odds of [55.0].
Davies was of course plying his trade on the Challenge Tour the season before last, and it's another Challenge Tour graduate - and two of his Spanish compatriots - that make up my trio of selections this week.
Winner
Rafael Cabrera-Bello continued him impressive run of figures at last week's Open de Andalucia; his 11th place finish was his sixth consecutive top-30 finish on the European Tour. I confess to knowing very little about how the Golf du Palais Royal (it's been 12 years since the Moroccan Open was played here) and Golf de L'Ocean courses will play during the next four days, but the indications are that with wide fairways on both courses, and therefore many greens to be hit in regulation, then someone who can putt well will stand a great chance of winning. Cabrera-Bello ranks fifth in Putts per GIR on the Tour this season which is highly encouraging.
From the footage that I saw of this emerging Spaniard last week he was regularly leaving his approach shots just marginally outside decent birdie range, so it was testament to his ability and consistency that he climbed the leaderboard as the week progressed. If he can dial in his approach shots just a few feet closer this week then the [24.0] currently available in the Winner market could look very big come Sunday afternoon.
Top Five Finish
One player who may well break through on the European Tour this season is that Challenge Tour graduate I referred too earlier - Alvaro Velasco. True, Velasco has played on the main Tour previously - mainly in 2008 and 2009 where he recorded just six top-10 finishes in 55 events - but the relegation to golf's second tier did him no harm at all last season. The 29-year-old recorded six top-10 finishes from just 16 events; his two victories and one second place finish enabling him to finish top of the Challenge Tour money list.
Velasco has finished in the money in seven of the eight events he has played this season, with his best result coming at the prestigious Dubai Desert Classic where he finished in a highly-credible tie for fourth place. A reproduction of that form will give us a great run for our money at odds of [15.0] in this market.
Top Ten Finish
We won't get rich backing Carlos Del Moral at [6.0] but he represents an extremely solid selection. Like Cabrera-Bello he has been very consistent this season, making the cut in all six events he's played and recording four top-25 finishes (including a fifth place finish when he was a selection two weeks ago). And his tie for 36th place last week was far better than it suggests. Incredibly, Del Moral was six over par after just 11 holes on Thursday, but he then played the next 61 holes in exactly the same number as eventual winner Paul Lawrie. He also made a staggering 19 birdies in those 61 holes, more than any other player in the whole field.
Recommended Bets
Back Rafael Cabrera-Bello at [24.0] in Winner market
Back Alvaro Velasco at [15.0] in Top Five Finish market
Back Carlos Del Moral at [6.0] in Top Ten Finish market
Total pts bet this season (one pt bet per selection): 27
Total pts returned: 10.75
2011 European Tour season Profit/Loss: -16.25
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