Showing posts with label Previews. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Previews. Show all posts
October 5, 2013
April 12, 2012
League One Previews: Iron to show their metal against Dons
English Football League 
/ Alan Dudman / 12 April 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Scunthorpe boss Alan Knill
"Yes Scunthorpe lack a cutting edge up front but they look really solid defensively at the moment, and they are 10 without defeat and haven't lost a game since February."
Enjoying a 10-game unbeaten run, Scunthorpe have enough about them to frustrate MK Dons on Saturday says Alan Dudman, whilst Sheff Wed should win at Colchester.
Colchester v Sheffield Wednesday, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Colchester [4.4], Sheff Wed [2.02], The Draw [3.5]
Like so many teams over the Easter period, coping with two games in three days is both mentally and physically draining. But Sheffield Wednesday survived their double scraps to come away with a healthy six points over the holiday weekend, with victories against Oldham and Huddersfield.
Easter Monday's TV involved an episode of Last Of The Summer Wine, so it was an easy choice to switch over to the live encounter involving the Owls, and I wasn't disappointed. A clinical 3-0 win over Oldham showed their tremendous pace in the side with the flying machine Michail Antonio. I was also impressed with their front two of Niall Ranger and Gary Madine, with the latter bagging his 18th goal of the season.
Wednesday are eight points off the leaders Charlton, and it seems the second automatic place is a straight shoot-out with neighbours Sheffield United. Manager Dave Jones has used a 4-4-2, but they look best when stretching the play out wide. Saturday's 2-0 win over rivals Huddersfield highlighted their movement and class, and they were all over their Yorkshire opponents.
Colchester's season is kaput following a lethargic display against Bury on Monday. They were thumped 4-1and it was a reminder of the sort of poor performance they were always capable of during various points of this campaign. They were weak in defence against the Shakers and chased the game at 2-0 to become too open. Us boss John Ward has once again overlooked a season which has fizzled out.
Wednesday are a side that keep going (much like those repeats of Last Of The Summer Wine), and haven't conceded a goal in their last four matches.
Back Sheff Wed @ [2.02]
Back 0-1 @ [8.0] and 0-2 @ [11.0] Correct Scores
Preston v Huddersfield, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Preston [3.6], Huddersfield [2.24], The Draw [3.4]
Huddersfield's two games over the weekend were nothing short of disastrous. With 2-0 defeats against Bournemouth and Sheffield Wednesday, the Terriers are wobbling at the wrong time. Admittedly four matches in 10 days is a cruel schedule, but the performance on Monday against the Cherries was woeful.
I watched Town when they visited London last week and defeated Orient 3-1. However, I was quite disappointed by their lack of football. They are big and strong, direct and physical, with manager Simon Grayson using three strikers shaped into an ill-fitting 4-5-1 whenever they had to defend. Multi-goal striker Jordan Rhodes scored twice that night but looked isolated for long periods - which has been the case over the two recent games.
Preston are still trying to find the 'Westley Way' - whatever that is. Graham Westley was happy with their performance against Stevenage on Monday, suggesting it was their best yet and GW spoke of energy levels and front foot areas - which is pretty typical of him.
The hosts however are tight at the back, but equally thin on goal returns - scoring just three goals in their last five home games. They were not exactly ambitious going forward in the match on Saturday against the MK Dons and I have a feeling both might just cancel each other out here, as the two managers are fearful of a loss for different reasons.
Huddersfield look an awful price for a team that have performed poorly recently.
Lay Huddersfield @ [2.3]
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [1.94]
Back 0-0 @ [12.0] & 1-1 @ [7.4] Correct Scores
Scunthorpe v MK Dons, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Scunthorpe [3.0], MK Dons [2.5], The Draw [3.4]
Some of my favourite Alans in history have been Devonshire, Igglesden and Wells, but the Scunthorpe contender of Knill will be high on the list of the Lincolnshire faithful. Iron boss Alan Knill (to give him his full name), has turned around his side's fortunes to such an extent that relegation talk looks rather misplaced now. They have 50 points.
Remember this was a side struggling at Christmas, but Scunthorpe have found some togetherness with a strong unit at the back. Yes they lack a cutting edge up front but they look really solid defensively at the moment. They are 10 without defeat, and haven't lost a game since February. For correct score traders and backers, they have kept four clean sheets in their last five games.
The MK Dons should be an automatic promotion team in my opinion, with a side that can always play some high quality football. Monday's 3-0 win over Tranmere saw the club break the 100 goals in a season mark - a record for Dons. However the Saturday 1-1 against Preston explained why they are not in the top two, with a good display that lacked the ruthless skills of a higher team.
I have always liked them as a team and in particular their manager Karl Robinson, but this will be a tough match and the Dons might find themselves frustrated.
Back The Draw @ [3.4]
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [1.98]
Back 0-0 @ [12.0] & 1-1 Correct Scores @ [7.4]
Ian Lamont knows Rotherham's chances of beating Shrewsbury are reflected in the price but it's a gamble worth taking. So Rotherham it is, plus the remainder of the weekends' best bets....
Roberto Martinez's Wigan and Brian Horton's Macclesfield are both strong odds-on for the drop but they're two sides who promise to carry on fighting till the bitter end under good managers. One or both can beat the drop, says Gary...
Ian Lamont gets stuck in to the Good Friday League Two programme with intriguing bets on some of the most enticing fixtures......
April 5, 2012
Championship Previews: Back Reading to cement promotion push
Championship / Andrew French / 05 April 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Reading players celebrate following their crucial win over West Ham last weekend
"Reading have won 11 of their last 13 games including last week's 4-2 success at promotion rivals West Ham."
It's all about momentum at this stage of the season, and Reading have it says Andrew French as the Royals look to cement their promotion push by beating inconsistent Leeds.
Reading v Leeds, KO: Good Friday 14:00, live on Sky Sports 1, Match Odds: Reading [1.62], Leeds [6.4], The Draw [4.2]
Unless they suddenly hit a streak of good form, Leeds look destined for another season of Championship football: and a trip to Reading is the last thing you'd want when trying to kick-start a run to carry you into the play-offs. Neil Warnock has said himself he'd be surprised if his side go up this year, and given they have won only two of their last eight, you can see why.
Reading, meanwhile, have been imperious since the turn of the year. They have won 11 of their last 13 games including last week's 4-2 success at promotion rivals West Ham. The Royals have won their last six at home, and have generally taken control of recent games at the Madejski early on: in each of their last five home games they have been in front at the break and gone on to win. Against a side with such fragile confidence as Leeds, they can do the same again here.
Back Reading HT/Reading FT @ [2.6]
Nottingham Forest v Bristol City, KO: Saturday 17:20, live on Sky Sports 2, Match Odds: Nottm Forest [1.83], Bristol City [5.0], The Draw [3.8]
It's probably taken longer than he would have liked, but Steve Cotterill appears to have guided Nottingham Forest to safety. They were next to bottom as recently as mid-February but a run of only two defeats in 10 has lifted them up to 19th and six points clear of the drop zone.
Bristol City are heading in the opposite direction amid a sequence of just one win in 13 games - they were 19th at the end of January, and now they are 22nd. They have gone seven without an away win, during which time they have scored just one goal. A win here would just about end Forest's lingering concerns, and with the current gulf in form, home advantage should be telling.
Watford v Blackpool, KO: Good Friday 15:00, Match Odds: Watford [2.66], Blackpool [2.84], The Draw [3.5]
Being a Watford fan, I have to confess I expected to be sweating about relegation around now. So, the achievements of Sean Dyche and his squad have been a hugely pleasant surprise: I certainly could never have foreseen them having a chance of reaching the play-offs. Yet the Hornets are the in-form side at the moment, unbeaten in seven and with three successive wins to their credit.
On-loan Manchester United keeper Tomasz Kuszczak has clearly made a difference with three clean sheets in his last four outings: Watford had only managed seven shut-outs in 33 games before he arrived.
I can see the Hornets improving their recent run of four wins in six at home against a Blackpool side that has been inconsistent despite their high current placing in the league table. Ian Holloway's side claimed a fine win over leaders Southampton last weekend, but it was only their second success in seven attempts. They have lost their last three away games and conceded eight goals in the process.
West Ham will have to arrest a run of five successive home draws if they are to climb above Reading into the automatic promotion places......
There's a huge game at the top of the table when West Ham host Reading, but Andrew French also previews Coventry and Portsmouth's games as they attempt to avoid relegation....
After five home draws in a row and seven draws from their last 10 games it's been a frustrating time for West Ham, but Andrew French believes they are an excellent price to beat out-of-form Peterborough in midweek....
March 31, 2012
Premier League Previews: Villa and Chelsea to share the spoils
Premier League / Feizal Rahman / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Aston Villa boss Alex McLeish
"Chelsea have played eight games in all competitions throughout March compared to Villa’s three and such exertion from the West Londoners may well be about to catch up with them, despite some squad rotation."
Chelsea have played almost three times as many games as Aston Villa in the month of March and that could be a factor in deciding the outcome this weekend says Feizal Rahman, with the draw his recommended bet.
Aston Villa v Chelsea, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Aston Villa [4.9], Chelsea [1.88], The Draw [3.7]
Villa continue to show the sort of regressive form that has left them three places above the drop zone. Alex McLeish's side have managed just two victories in 2012, with four draws and four losses. The Claret and Blue have six defeats in their last ten at Villa Park, with just one win in eight.
Under the lead of Roberto Di Matteo, Chelsea have progressed in the FA Cup and Champions League. However, in the league, Opta state that they have only two wins from nine and, on the road, they have lost their last three and picked up maximum points just once since the turn of the year.
Chelsea have played eight games in all competitions throughout March compared to Villa's three and such exertion from the West Londoners may well be about to catch up with them, despite some squad rotation. The Blues will also not be encouraged by a poor record against Villa recently.
Opta note that Chelsea have won just once in their last 12 visits to Villa Park, otherwise losing four and drawing seven. Consequently, Chelsea look a lay at [1.88] in the Match Odds market with more appeal about the [3.7] on offer for the Draw.
Villa have struck just five times in their last eight at home, however, Chelsea have found the net only twice in their last five away games. Under 2.5 Goals should attract at [1.85] with a 0-0 and 1-1 Correct Score available at [12.0] and [8.0] respectively.
Everton v West Bromwich Albion, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Everton [1.9], West Brom [4.7], The Draw [3.7]
Everton have finally kicked into gear after their traditional slow start to the season and the Blue half of Merseyside are now just two points off neighbours, Liverpool - who they will go on to play in the FA Cup semi-final at Wembley next month.
Back-to-back away wins in the league and cup will boost the confidence of David Moyes' men who have suffered just two league defeats in their last 10. A loss to Arsenal ended a run of three straight victories at Goodison Park, each over sides in the top five.
Having previously won three on the spin themselves, West Brom have picked up just a point from their most recent three in the league. However, Opta state that Roy Hodgson's side have suffered only two losses in the last nine away trips. Yet, Everton have won three of the five Premier League meetings between the two at Goodison with West Brom's sole victory coming in November 2010.
The Baggies have failed to score in just four of their 15 away games so far this season. However, the Toffeemen remain stingy at home and - as Opta reveal - they have conceded only once in their last four, with 10 of the last 12 fixtures at Goodison producing two goals or fewer.
Everton should get back to winning ways and are [1.9] for the victory. Under 2.5 Goals looks reasonably priced at [1.94] but Under 1.5 Goals could appeal more at [3.7] , with a 1-0 Correct Score on offer at [8.6].
Fulham v Norwich City, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Fulham [1.75], Norwich [5.4], The Draw [4.0]
Fulham have lost their last three games, failing to score in each, as Opta inform us. Yet, the solid home record of Martin Jol's men has kept them out of trouble and ahead of a 3-0 defeat to Swansea last time out, they had six wins from eight at Craven Cottage, with a whopping 18 goals scored.
Inconsistency has been Norwich's problem all season, only able to put together a short run of point-winning form before a string of defeats. Away from home, the Canaries have three losses from their last four though were undefeated in their four prior to that.
According to Opta, Norwich's record against Fulham will offer them scant hope with not a single win in nine meetings since 1986. Three of the last four trips to Craven Cottage have resulted in defeat, the most recent a 6-0 hiding seven years ago.
Fulham should be good for the win at [1.75], while Over 2.5 Goals looks a safe bet at [1.8] with just one of the last seven at Craven Cottage failing to deliver at least three goals. Yet, the West Londoners have led at the break just four times all season so it may pay to back the Half Time Draw at [2.4].
Meanwhile, Clint Dempsey has nine goals on home turf this term while on-loan Pavel Pogrebnyak - who has indicated a desire to stay on at Fulham - has four strikes from three starts at the Cottage. The duo are [2.7] and [2.5] to score respectively.
Recommended Bets:
Aston Villa v Chelsea - Back The Draw @ [3.7]
Everton v West Brom - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [1.94]
Fulham v Norwich - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.8]
Will the two Wanderers return goals in the crunch bottom-of-the-table clash on Saturday at Molineux? Gareth Purnell thinks there may be value in betting that they will.......
Manchester City and Arsenal are amongst the clubs playing on Saturday afternoon, but it's the price of Bolton to beat out-of-form Wolves that has got Mike Norman really excited....
Newcastle are closing in on a top-six finish and if they harbour ambitions of building on their success, they're in for an eventful summer......
Serie A Previews: Parma and Lazio to end all square
Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment Edy Reja deserves more recognition for his achievements as Lazio boss
"Lazio haven’t drawn a game since the 21st December, but this even match could produce just that outcome."
Dave Farrar previews this weekend's Serie A action and believes Parma and Lazio will share the spoils, whilst there'll be plenty of goals in Siena to make the 'Overs' bet a decent-price winner.
When these two teams met here on Valentine's Day 2010, Edy Reja was starting his Lazio managerial career after the sacking of the maverick Davide Ballardini. For all of his occasionally difficult relationship with the board at the Olimpico, Reja has done a pretty remarkable job, and his efforts in steering Lazio to third place in the league aren't attracting the credit that they deserve.
Francesco Guidolin will win many awards, but maybe it's Reja who deserves them. Reja's big problem this time at the Tardini is the absence of Miroslav Klose. It's not just the German's 12 goals that have made him key to the team, but the impact that he has on Lazio's all round play. He holds the ball up for energetic runners, and his five match injury absence really couldn't have come at a worse time.
It seems that the line will be led by the veteran Tommaso Rocchi and the low impact new signing Emiliano Alfaro, and even though Parma have been leaky at the back this season, they'll feel that they can keep out a team that needed a late winner to beat Cagliari last week and failed to score against Catania the week before.
Recent history is against Parma, who haven't beaten Lazio here since 2004, but they're priced at [2.68] to get the win here, with Lazio at [3.1] . That seems short enough, as I'm unconvinced by Roberto Donadoni and Parma's struggles in front of goal mean that they're by no means certain to find a way through what might look like a defensive Lazio.
Reja knows that, with games against Napoli and Juventus to come, they could do with three points here to give their end of season push some momentum, but I think that he and Donadoni are likely to be disappointed. Lazio haven't drawn a game since the 21st December, but this even match could produce just that outcome.
Recommendation: Back Draw in Parma v Lazio @ [3.2]
This is one of those odd Serie A fixtures. There's no overwhelming reason why games between Siena and Udinese should produce goals, but since Udinese won 2-0 at the Friuli in 2007 there have been 18 goals in the six matches involving these teams.
If you believe in the theory of reversion to the mean, then you'll be keen to take a look at Under 2.5 Goals which is available at [1.66]. 'Overs' are [2.34], and that seems a little big given the likely nature of the game that we'll see.
Udinese were awful in Palermo last week, but they did well to salvage a point late on, and I think that we'll see the approach that led to that equaliser from the start in Tuscany. Francesco Guidolin's team will play at a high tempo, and Antonio Di Natale will enjoy the space that Siena are likely to give him. He has scored six career goals against them, and could add to that here.
Sice the league resumed in January, five of Udinese's eight away games have featured at least three goals, while four of Siena's seven have done likewise. That makes [2.34] a price that I'm happy to take, and I certainly wouldn't put you off the [2.88] that's available for an Udinese win. They are too good a side, and Guidolin too astute a coach, to simply let their season fizzle out. Over 2.5 Goals though, is the bet.
Recommendation: Back Over 2.5 goals in Siena v Udinese @ [2.34]
Elsewhere this weekend, it will be interesting to see how the top two cope with awkward looking fixtures.
Milan are [1.39] to win the title with Juventus [3.55], and one thing I expect to continue developing is the dominance that both of these teams are showing over the rest of the division.
Juve are at home to Napoli, and I expect them to take advantage of their recent resurgence and put the southerners away at [1.88] while Milan go to Catania, who are performing so well for Vincenzo Montella. Milan are [2.18] to win, and I think that they're a little overpriced.
Too much is being made of Catania's good recent run: they're good, but not in the same league as Milan. Juve and Milan will be worth supporting over coming weeks, but I still feel that the Rossoneri will do just enough to hang onto the title.
Will the promotion of youth-team coach Andrea Stramaccioni prompt a change of outlook at Inter, or will he too be swiftly discarded at the first signs of trouble? Michael Lintorn considers......
Given Inter's struggles this season, the Derby D'Italia may be less competitive than usual. In fact, Juventus may well trample all over their old rivals. Particularly if the enigmatic Mirko Vucinic 'shows up', says Dave Farrar....
Napoli entertain Siena this evening in the semi-finals of the Coppa Italia, hoping to overturn a 2-1 deficit from the first leg......
February 16, 2012
League Two Previews: Highflying Gulls and Robins to win again
English Football League / Ian Lamont / 16 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Torquay boss Martin Ling
"The fact Torquay are spreading the goals around the team can be considered a reason for their success – as is a resolute defence."
You'll be hard pushed to find a more in-form side than Torquay and Swindon in English football at present, and Ian Lamont believes both will continue their good form on Saturday afternoon.
Torquay v Bradford, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Torquay [1.82], Bradford [4.7], The Draw [3.7]
I am sure Torquay's seven straight wins must be some sort of record (they jointly hold a record for consecutive draws in English football, with eight). Martin Ling claims they are the best in England on current form, with a remarkable 41 points from a possible 48.
There is certainly little reason, on form, to believe that Bradford will defeat them. Not at Plainmoor, anyway, where Gillingham were the last team to win - 5-2, back in October. Only Oxford have left the West Country with anything since. The Gulls stormed to the top early last season but couldn't keep it going, before rallying and reaching the play-off finals.
Their current run is phenomenal, yet nobody has scored in double figures (Lee Mansell tops the list with eight). The fact they are spreading the goals around the team can be considered a reason for their success - as is a resolute defence. The last four games have been won 1-0, as have seven of their last 11 results.
Phil Parkinson's visitors, precariously poised in the bottom five, are still seeking their first win of 2012. They have to be watched late in games, because Andrew Davies equalised on 90 minutes at home to Port Vale on Tuesday - the third time the Bantams have scored in the last three minutes in five outings. One was in the FA Cup, but the other, from Marcel Seip, also snatched a point - at home to Morecambe.
Back Torquay to beat Bradford @ [1.82]
Hereford v Swindon, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Hereford [5.2] Swindon [1.75], The Draw [3.9]
The Bulls have picked up some valuable points against promotion-chasing teams, drawing at home to Hereford and at Oxford in recent weeks. Wins at Dagenham and Burton have given them the tiniest of cushions above the trapdoor. Their resolve will be severally tested against a side whose manager Paolo Di Canio tinkers with each week. It keeps the players on their toes and shows tactical nous to deal with the specifics of opponents. Paul Bodin, back from loan at Torquay, has begun scoring for the Robins, as have new faces Luke Rooney and Paul Benson. They have the guile to get round the hosts' wall. Like Torquay, they have seven straight league wins.
Back Swindon to beat Hereford @ [1.75]
Accrington v Plymouth, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Accrington [1.82], Plymouth [4.7], The Draw [3.7]
It is always hard to justify backing Accrington at odds-on, I find. They are the perennial over-achievers in League Two. John Coleman, in his 13 years before quitting for Rochdale, turned them from a Northern League side into one that had serious play-off credentials in this division. But they are so often priced as underdogs that when they are not you start looking for reasons to oppose them.
Plymouth, simply, must improve their away form to stay up. There is a chance they can do it if Nick Chadwick and Burnley loanee Alex MacDonald can link up to create chances or score. A hard-earned point at home to Barnet is one thing, notching more points on the road, to add to the three at Bristol and ones at Aldershot and Bradford in December, is another challenge. Stanley offer them a chink of light, with five home defeats. This might be a chance for the Pilgrims to add to Accrington's solitary home draw. Laying the hosts covers that possibility.
Lay Accrington to beat Plymouth @ [1.84]
Burton v Rotherham, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Burton [2.88], Rotherham [2.6], The Draw [3.4]
Tipping a draw is always a bit of a long shot, but an initial look at the prices on this game seemed to accurately reflect the chances of a draw. Rotherham appear to be out of their recent bad run of three defeats, although they have only won once in four away trips. That was at Southend, who were not in great form themselves at that point. Burton lost again on Tuesday, to Crewe, meaning only two points from seven games now. That, combined with Shaun Harrad and Alex Revell being in scoring mood for the Millers, swings the result in favour of the visitors as they bid to hang on to play-off hopes.
Back Rotherham to beat Burton @ [2.66]
Michael Lintorn looks at four of big midweek matches in Leagues One and Two, predicting victories for Charlton and Swindon over promotion rivals......
Sheffield United have been excellent at Bramall Lane this season and Alan Dudman expects that to continue when the blades host Wycombe on Saturday; weather permitting of course....
After their Johnstone's Paint Trophy exit on Tuesday night Barnet will be desperate to exact revenge over their conquerors Swindon, and they are huge value to do so says Ian Lamont....
Championship Previews: Likely Forest win to glean some hope
Championship / Andrew French / 16 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Steve Cotterill shouts instructions to his misfiring Nottm Forest side
"Nottingham Forest are right in the mire and simply have to beat Coventry – if they do, they will move above them and could be as close as three points to safety."
It's been a dreadful season so far for Nottingham Forest, but they simply must beat Coventry this weekend if they are to keep their survival chances alive says Andrew French.
Peterborough v Bristol City, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Peterborough [2.32], Bristol City [3.2], The Draw [3.5]
Is it too early to start throwing in the phrase 'six pointer'? Probably not. Especially when you consider that there is only a third of the season to go and both these sides are lingering uncomfortably close to the drop zone.
Bristol City were bottom, rose to 19th, but a run of one win in six has put the skids under them again. They have failed to keep a clean in any of those six, and that will surely be a worry visiting London Road, where goals fly in at an alarming rate. Posh average two a game at home - a rate only bettered by four teams in the division - yet they let them in nearly as fast and have the worst home defensive record in the Championship.
You could look at this fixture and say 'cagey', but I don't think Peterborough know how to do 'cagey'. Ten of their home games have delivered 2.5 goals or more, while nine of City's away games have done the same. Bearing in mind City are struggling to keep the ball out of the net, and both sides badly need something from this game, I think the Over 2.5 Goals price looks generous.
Barnsley v Portsmouth, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Barnsley [2.46], Portsmouth [3.2], The Draw [3.4]
In the list of people who are not too to sad to see Scottish giants Rangers going into administration, Portsmouth fans are probably second only to Celtic fans. It's not that Pompey have any malice towards the Ibrox club - but it must be nice not to be the main story when it comes to parlous club finances. The south coast club are once again at death's door, and though they showed plenty of spirit in drawing at Blackpool last week, the midweek home defeat to Ipswich suggested their resolve is now fully stretched. As it is, they are bad enough on the road: just two wins in 16 outings.
Barnsley have lost their last two but they were both away from home: they beat Leicester in their last game at Oakwell. The Tykes have only failed to score once at home this term (against Southampton) and if they can maintain that sequence it will probably be good enough to take the points.
Nottingham Forest v Coventry, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Nottm Forest [1.92], Coventry [4.2], The Draw [3.8]
If Forest don't win this one, it'll simply not be justified to cite 'they are too big to go down' as a defence against the possibility of the former European Champions dropping into the third tier of English football. With just one win - but 10 defeats - in their last 13 league games, Forest are serious relegation contenders. Their problems in scoring goals are well documented - but there have been some glimmers of hope lately. They finally found the net at home last weekend and missed a string of chances to win in the 1-1 draw with Watford, before giving 10-man Middlesbrough a scare in midweek. However, they are right in the mire and simply have to beat Coventry - if they do, they will move above them and could be as close as three points to safety.
The Sky Blues' away results must offer the hosts plenty of hope: they have lost their last eight on the trot on their travels, and overall have drawn just three and lost the other 12. Significantly they have not managed a clean sheet in any away game, and even a team that has struggled to find the net like Forest must do so in this one. Given that Coventry have failed to score in more than half their away games, one goal might be enough.
A full midweek programme of Championship action has had Andrew French scouring for the best bets of the night, and he believes Brighton to beat Millwall is exactly that....
Home games at Barnsley and Ipswich have produced plenty of goals in recent months, and Andrew French believes that trend will continue when Birmingham and Middlesbrough visit this weekend....
Birmingham have won six consecutive games in all competitions says Andrew French and he believes they have an excellent chance of beating promotion-chasing Southampton....
February 14, 2012
Championship Previews: Excellent odds for Brighton victory
Championship / Andrew French / 14 February 2012 / 1 Comments 
Brighton boss Gus Poyet
"Birmingham have been particularly mean at home this season; 15 teams have visited St Andrews in the league, and nine of them have left without a goal."
A full midweek programme of Championship action has had Andrew French scouring for the best bets of the night, and he believes Brighton to beat Millwall is exactly that.
Brighton v Millwall, KO: Tuesday 19:45, Match Odds: Brighton [2.1], Millwall [4.2], The Draw [3.5]
Crazy price alert! Brighton are unbeaten in nine in all competitions, and have won five of their last six at home. They are hosting a Millwall side that has lost five of its last seven. The Seagulls should surely be a shade of odds on - shouldn't they? They are now available to back at [2.1] having been available at [2.22] on Monday.
Gus Poyet's side made a superb start having come out of League One and were top of the table in early September. Perhaps understandably they couldn't sustain that and had slid down to 16th by the end of 2011. However, Poyet brought in three loan players from the Premier League (Sam Vokes, Gonzalo Jara and Joe Mattock) and 16 points from the last 18 has lifted them back to 8th.They refused to settle for a draw at Leeds on Saturday, and have won their last three at the Falmer Stadium without conceding a goal.
Millwall have failed to score in eight of their last 11 league games and are in the thick of the relegation scrap in 20th. Brighton have played all four sides beneath the Lions in the table at home - and won the lot.
Middlesbrough v Nottm Forest, KO: Tuesday 19:45, Match Odds: Middlesbrough [2.02], Nottm Forest [4.4], The Draw [3.5]
It seems that the fears among some Middlesbrough fans that their promotion push may falter due to a lack of squad depth are coming true. Boro have gone six games without a win since Boxing Day - and travelling all the way down to Ipswich for a farcical abandonment on Saturday won't have helped. Goals have not been in plentiful supply at either end of the field at the Riverside this season: just 27 in 15 league games. All of Middlesbrough's last six home games have produced less than 2.5 goals: in fact 80% of Boro's home fixtures this season have gone the same way.
And here they are hosting a team that scored its first goal at home since November 19 on Saturday. Forest may have broken their scoring duck hosting Watford but their finishing was still profligate. No surprise they have the worst scoring record in the division then (0.79 goals per game) - and they're up against a defence that lets in less than a goal a game at home.
Birmingham v Hull, KO: Tuesday 19:45, Match Odds: Birmingham [1.93], Hull [4.7], The Draw [3.6]
When you've got a defence that gives little or nothing away, it makes it a good bit easier to win games. Birmingham have been particularly mean at home this season; 15 teams have visited St Andrews in the league, and nine of them have left without a goal. That 60% clean sheet rate at home is the best in the division: indeed, no visiting Championship team has managed more than one goal at Birmingham this term. Chris Hughton's side are unbeaten in nine, and have managed five shut-outs in that sequence.
Hull are unbeaten in four but they have not been frequent scorers - they have one of the worst scoring record in the division, surprising for a team that is sixth. They average only 0.86 goals per game away from home and have drawn a blank in four of their last seven league outings.
Back Birmingham Clean Sheet @ [2.34]
Home games at Barnsley and Ipswich have produced plenty of goals in recent months, and Andrew French believes that trend will continue when Birmingham and Middlesbrough visit this weekend....
Birmingham have won six consecutive games in all competitions says Andrew French and he believes they have an excellent chance of beating promotion-chasing Southampton....
There's a full programme of Championship action in midweek and Andrew French has picked out his best bets including Nottingham Forest's dreadful home form set to continue....
February 10, 2012
League One Previews: Blades to cut down Wycombe
English Football League / Alan Dudman / 09 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
New Sheffield United signing James Beattie
"Sheffield United's home form is ultra strong, with 32 points gained at Bramall Lane this season, with the healthiest goals-to-games ratio in the division."
Sheffield United have been excellent at Bramall Lane this season and Alan Dudman expects that to continue when the blades host Wycombe on Saturday; weather permitting of course.
Sheffield United v Wycombe, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Sheff Utd [1.43], Wycombe [8.4], The Draw [5.1]
Like many teams last week, Sheffield United were frozen off at Colchester. This weekend looks fairly straightforward for the hosts however, and the Blades enter a critical phase with huge games to tackle later this month against Huddersfield and city rivals Wednesday. A lucrative points return in February could cause a shift in their current title odds of [9.6].
United boss Danny Wilson has brought in some excellent players in the transfer window, including Will Hoskins and James Beattie, adding to an already strong looking squad. In short, the home side look to have so much more quality as an attacking threat than Wycombe. Sheffield United dominated the game against Charlton recently and lost 1-0, and prior played equally well to tear apart Bury. Their home form is ultra strong, with 32 points gained at Bramall Lane this season, with the healthiest goals-to-games ratio in the division.
Wycombe climbed out of the relegation zone last weekend with a gutsy 2-1 win over Tranmere. They had to defend for long periods and were a shade fortunate to win. The three points were inspired by captain Gareth Ainsworth - who at 38 years of age shows no signs of letting up.
I worry about Wanderers and their defence here, as this season they have conceded six against Huddersfield, five against Brentford and four against the MK Dons. The fact that six of Sheffield United's last eight games have been over 2.5 goals leads me to several other markets if the price on the home team is too short for you.
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.74]
Back Over 3.5 Goals @ [2.8]
Back Sheff Utd 2-0 @ [7.6] & 3-0 @ [11.0] Correct Scores
Yeovil v Scunthorpe, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Yeovil [2.5] Scunthorpe [3.1], The Draw [3.5]
Yeovil are one of those teams I never seem to get right, I hope to change that this weekend. The Glovers have hauled themselves out of the drop zone to 18th position and have a genuine chance of survival. They fought hard last Saturday only to lose 2-1 at Sheffield Wednesday, conceding a late screamer in a really stubborn display.
Manager Gary Johnson recently took over from Terry Skiverton and collected a reasonably healthy seven points in January. Yeovil line up 4-4-2 but will be missing captain Paul Huntington through suspension. Seven of their last eight games have been over 2.5 goals but they have lost eight times at Huish Park this season.
Scunthorpe are the draw specialists in League One, with a staggering 13 collected this term. Manager Alan Knill compromised their attacking style a while ago for a more pragmatic approach, and they've drawn four of their last eight games. Knill could welcome back striker Jordan Robertson and midfielder Michael O'Connor, and his lengthy injury list is now showing signs of easing.
The Iron don't score too many away from home, but have only conceded 17 goals in 13 games. Stocky loan signing Jon Parkin could add a bit of fire up front, but a draw looks the best option.
Back The Draw @ [3.5]
Back 0-0 @ [13.0] & 1-1 @ [7.4] Correct Scores
MK Dons v Bury, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: MK Dons [1.65] Bury [6.4], The Draw [4.0]
The MK Dons haven't won since January 2nd, a surprise considering their squad strength. Manager Karl Robinson has a growing reputation as an accomplished coach, which has obviously helped in recently signing Newcastle star Alan Smith and lightning-quick Celtic midfielder Paul Slane.
Robinson recently spoke of the need to add to his attacking options, and a newspaper story linked Tottenham midfielder David Bentley with a loan move to Buckinghamshire, which signifies their intent if true. On the pitch the Dons are drawing too many games, and bar the 4-2 defeat to Stevenage, have been held 1-1 or 0-0 in five of their last six matches.
Bury are hugely inconsistent, having defended brilliantly against Charlton in the 1-1 draw, they lost 3-0 at Rochdale in a match they were described as dire. The Shakers were quite negative in their set-up at Charlton, but it worked in stifling the attacking options of the Addicks. The game might be a bit tighter than the market predicts, which gives In-Play options to either wait for a bigger price on the hosts, or back-to-lay the draw later in the game. Ultimately the MK Dons ought to win, but a narrow verdict seems likely.
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [2.12]
Back MK Dons 1-0 Correct Score @ [8.0]
After their Johnstone's Paint Trophy exit on Tuesday night Barnet will be desperate to exact revenge over their conquerors Swindon, and they are huge value to do so says Ian Lamont....
Which League Two promotion hopefuls will steam on and are there immediate candidates for faltering? Ian Lamont investigates the evidence....
There's a huge game at the bottom of League One this weekend and Alan Dudman believes Scunthorpe and Walsall will share the spoils and remain in big trouble....
December 3, 2011
Serie A Previews: Parma's strong home form set to continue
Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 02 December 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Parma’s attacking midfielder Sebastian Giovinco
"I fully expect Franco Colomba’s team (Parma) to turn four home wins from six into five from seven."
After a disappointing loss in the Coppa Italia last week, Parma need to get back to winning ways in Serie A as soon as possible, and Dave Farrar believes Sunday night is the perfect time to start.
Parma v Palermo, KO: Sunday 19:45, live on ESPN, Match Odds: Parma [2.18], Palermo [4.2], The Draw [3.2]
Given the strong side that they put out against Serie B Verona last week, Parma were clearly keen to have a go at winning this season's Coppa Italia. A shock defeat meant that the focus for the rest of the season at the Ennio Tardini will be on finishing as high in the league table as they can.
Parma are [2.18] to get back to winning ways on Sunday against Palermo, and I think that rates as a bit of value. Palermo are strong at the Renzo Barbera, but dreadful on the road. They're yet to score a goal away from home, and while Parma's oddly leaky defence will give Devis Mangia's team a chance of netting, the home side should be too strong.
Sebastian Giovinco is the key man for Parma: the OPTA statistics show that he has been involved in nine of the fifteen goals that his team have chalked up, scoring seven and providing two assists. With Palermo likely to set up defensively, he will have to find a way to get into space, but the former Juventus man is adept at doing that and I expect him to hurt Palermo. The Rosanero have, after all, conceded 31 goals in their last 16 away games. I fully expect Franco Colomba's team to turn four home wins from six into five from seven.
Recommendation: Back Parma to beat Palermo at [2.18]
Fiorentina v Roma, KO: Sunday 14:00, Match Odds: Fiorentina [2.44], Roma [3.4], The Draw [3.3]
Delio Rossi is still looking for his first win since he took over at Fiorentina, and as an ex Lazio man, I'm sure that he'd be delighted if it arrived against Roma. Rossi had a good record against the city rivals on the Lazio bench, winning three derbies, but he may struggle to inspire this average La Viola team to hit those sort of heights.
Discipline would appear to be a problem at Fiorentina, with Alessio Cerci and Andrea Lazzari fined for staying out too late after last week's Coppa Italia win, and with the former Roma player Cerci likely to be left out of the side against his old club, Fiorentina could be struggling for any kind of creativity. It's now three games in a row in which Fiorentina have failed to score, and it's shocking that a team with their tradition should be one of the least productive teams in Serie A. Only Lecce and Cesena have scored fewer goals.
Roma are no great shakes either - recent victories over some of the lower lights in the division have papered over the cracks, but the fact remains that this Roma team doesn't pass the ball at pace and lacks incision.
The draw at [3.4] looks tempting, but I'll go a little further than that and take the risk that Roma will fail to get on the scoresheet for just the third time in their last twenty one away games. The [9.2] which is available about the game finishing 0-0 looks too big, as does the [2.8] about the game being goalless at half time. We should take advantage of both prices.
Recommendation Back 0-0 Correct Score @ [9.2]
Back 0-0 Half Time Score @ [2.8]
Finally, a word on what looks like a tempting treble this weekend. Juventus are [1.29] to beat Cesena at home, Lazio are [1.4] to beat Novara, and Napoli [1.4] to prove too good for Lecce.
This might look like a steal (as a couple of people have already told me this week) but I'd be careful: Napoli have an awful record in their matches immediately before a Champions League game, Juventus looked out on their feet after that classic against Napoli, and a strong Lazio team couldn't win at Vaslui in the Europa League on Thursday night. I think that one of the legs of this "certainty" looks like it might fail, and I'll continue my policy of avoiding bets like this.
Despite their dismal recent domestic form, Michael Lintorn thinks that Napoli are a massive threat to Juventus' unbeaten run......
Even with Antonio Cassano likely to miss much of the remainder of the season, AC Milan should not be considering a move for Carlos Tevez, argues Michael Lintorn......
With Napoli set to face Manchester City in midweek in a huge Champions League fixture, Dave Farrar believes Lazio, and their excellent away form, can take full advantage....
Premier League Previews: Goals expected at the Etihad Stadium
Premier League / Feizal Rahman / 02 December 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Man City players celebrate scoring yet another goal
"With such richness of attacking resources available to manager Roberto Mancini, it is no surprise to learn that his side has averaged three goals per game in their last 10 at home."
Feizal Rahman previews three of Saturday's Premier League fixtures using the Opta stats, and believes goals will be the order of the day as Manchester City look to extend their lead at the top of the table.
Blackburn Rovers v Swansea City, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Blackburn [2.24], Swansea [3.8], The Draw [3.5]
Firmly rooted to the bottom of the Premier League table, Blackburn have now gone eight games without a win, suffering five defeats since victory at home to Arsenal. That was Rovers' only maximum this term, and Opta inform us that they have lost every other game at Ewood Park.
Nine of Blackburn's league fixtures this season have seen in excess of two goals, seven of these producing four or more. Steve Kean's team have also conceded at least three goals in seven league games so far though have failed to score themselves on just three occasions.
Swansea have picked up six points from their last six in the league, suffering two defeats. However, having lost their first four away games of the season, Opta state that the Swans have drawn their last two away trips. Yet, Brendan Rodgers side have had to visit four of the current top seven teams which may account for why they have scored just four times, conceded 14, with all but two away games seeing three goals or more. Over 2.5 Goals trades at [2.02], with Over 3.5 Goals on offer at [3.6].
At home this campaign, Blackburn have been behind at the break just once and have otherwise been level after 45 minutes five times. The Half Time Draw is [2.4] with a 0-0 and 1-1 Half Time Score available at [3.2] and [8.4] respectively and the Draw/Draw HT/FT result around [5.7].
Manchester City v Norwich City, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Man City [1.2], Norwich [19.0], The Draw [8.4]
Manchester City sit five points clear at the top of the Premier League table and will view this as another opportunity to assert their top flight dominance. According to Opta, City have won their last 11 home league games and have not experienced defeat since last December.
With such richness of attacking resources available to manager Roberto Mancini, it is no surprise to learn that his side has averaged three goals per game in their last 10 at home, conceding just four. Half of these 10 have seen at least four goals scored so Over 3.5 Goals may appeal at [2.1].
Norwich have picked up two wins in their last six in the league, both at home. Yet, on their travels, they have managed just one win from six and been beaten three times. The Canaries have failed to keep a single clean sheet all season, conceding two goals on average in their last five trips.
Opta reveal that the two sides last met in league competition back in February 2005 and in Manchester, the Canaries have won just once in 22 league visits - losing four of the last six. The home side are [2.3] to beat a -2.5 Goal Asian handicap.
Half of Manchester City's home games this term have been goalless at half-time, with the Citizens performing far better in the second half. The Half Time Draw is [3.4] with a 0-0 Half Time Score at [5.2] and the Draw/Man City HT/FT result around [5.4].
Queens Park Rangers v West Bromwich Albion, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: QPR [2.3], West Brom [3.5], The Draw [3.5]
After an impressive start to the campaign, QPR have faltered slightly over the autumn months with three defeats in their last four, though they have maintained a mid-table position. At home, the Hoops have only one win to their name, otherwise drawing three and losing twice.
Neil Warnock's men have managed just five goals scored in six home games whilst conceding a total of nine. There have been four red cards shown at Loftus Road this term and a Sending Off can be backed at [5.0].
A home defeat to Tottenham last Saturday was West Brom's third loss in four games and a disappointing November has undone all the team's encouraging work throughout October. On the road, Roy Hodgson's side have two wins and three losses from their six trips so far.
Opta note that QPR have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last eight league contests whilst The Baggies have managed to shut out the opposition just once in their last 25 away fixtures. Both Teams To Score could reward at [1.8], with Over 2.5 Goals likely to be popular at [2.06].
West Brom's Chris Brunt is highlighted by Opta as having scored in his last three games against QPR at Loftus Road and the attacking midfielder is [6.0] To Score. Meanwhile, Heidar Helguson has three goals in three starts at home for QPR this term and is [3.0] to similarly find the net at any time.
Recommended Bets
Blackburn v Swansea - Back Half Time Draw @ [2.2]
Man City v Norwich - Back Over 3.5 Goals @ [2.1]
QPR v West Brom - Back Both Teams To Score @ [1.8]
Forget the hype, reputation and star names in Chelsea's line-up. It is Newcastle who are at home, look the more organised side and are carrying the greater momentum, says Lee Dixon....
After a tricky week with indifferent results in three different competitions, Manchester United should return to winning ways when they travel to Villa Park, a venue that has proved to be a happy hunting ground in recent years......
Gareth Purnell can't make any case for Aston Villa beating Manchester United on Saturday and believes a lay on the home side is a banker selection....
November 5, 2011
Premier League Previews: Goals at Ewood Park
Premier League / Feizal Rahman / 04 November 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Five in six. Nicolas Anelka has a fine scoring record against Blackburn.
"Opta highlight that Chelsea have now gone nine league games without a clean sheet and they were defensively inept against Arsenal last weekend."
Chelsea's trip to Blackburn should see plenty of net-bulging. Armed with betting expertise, Opta stats and sound insight, Feizal Rahman talks us through the pick of the wagers in two more of Saturday's non-televised matches.
Arsenal v West Bromwich Albion, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Arsenal [1.44], West Brom [9.0], The Draw [4.9]
On the back of five wins from seven in the league, Arsenal have gone from crisis to (Champions League places at least) contenders after their harrowing start to the campaign. At the Emirates, the Gunners have won seven games on the spin in all competitions, though only five of their last 10 in the league.
Having begun the season in dreadful fashion with four defeats from their first five, West Brom went on to steady the ship with just one loss in their next five. Surprisingly, Roy Hodgson's men have had a better record on the road this term with seven away points gained compared to only four at home.
Prior to a shock 3-2 win at the Emirates last season, West Brom could manage only a solitary point from four Premier League visits to Arsenal, conceding a total of 10 goals. However, Opta point out that the Baggies have failed to score themselves just once in this time.
Seven of the last 10 encounters between the sides, home or away, have resulted in at least three goals being scored - the last three fixtures producing a minimum of four. Opta also tell us there have been four goals scored in the opening 10 minutes of the last four league meetings.
Given Arsenal's continuing defensive frailties - just three clean sheets this season - Both Teams To Score looks a sound bet at [1.82], as is Over 3.5 Goals at around [2.7]. Backing the First Goal to be scored between 0-10 Minutes may also have some appeal at [3.8].
Aston Villa v Norwich City, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Aston Villa [1.91], Norwich [4.8], The Draw [3.7]
Despite only two league wins to their name this season, five draws from 10 games have allowed Aston Villa to remain in the top half of the table. At home, the trend continues with the Villans winning a total of six from 14 in 2011, drawing five and losing three.
Visitors Norwich currently sit a place and a point ahead of their hosts in the standings, belying their newly promoted status. Away from Carrow Road, Paul Lambert's squad have put in a handful of plucky performances and have averaged a point per game on their travels.
Opta reveal that at Villa Park, the two sides have one Premier League victory each with two draws - Villa winning the last encounter 3-0 back in 2005. Yet, this was the only the third time in the last eight meetings that the sides produced in excess of two goals.
While Villa have failed to find the net in just two of their previous 13 home league games, Norwich have also scored in all but two fixtures this term. Yet, with only two of the last 10 league games at Villa Park seeing in three strikes or greater, Under 2.5 Goals seems generous at [2.0].
As Opta inform us that Aston Villa have lost more points from winning positions than any other team in the Premier League this season, Aston Villa/Draw in the HT/FT market could pay dividends at [17.5], with a 1-1 Correct Score on offer at [7.6].
Blackburn Rovers v Chelsea, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Blackburn [7.6], Chelsea [1.52], The Draw [4.6]
With only two points from their last five league games, Blackburn continue to languish in the relegation zone. A 4-3 win at home to Arsenal remains Rovers' solitary victory this season, otherwise crashing to four defeats at Ewood Park, with nine conceded and just two in response.
Chelsea, meanwhile, are suffering a mini-slump of their own with two straight league defeats and just two wins from five on the road this term. Captain John Terry is under heavy scrutiny both on and off the pitch and the experience of manager Andre Villas Boas has also been called into question.
Blackburn have picked up a meagre two points in their last ten meetings with Chelsea, home or away, failing to score in eight of those contests. At Ewood Park, Blackburn have lost eight of the last eleven contests and have been unable to find the net on five occasions.
Yet, Opta highlight that Chelsea have now gone nine league games without a clean sheet and they were defensively inept against Arsenal last weekend. Back a 1-2 and 1-3 Correct Score at [9.0] and [13.5] respectively, while Both Teams to Score trades at [1.73]. Over 3.5 Goals at [2.58] may tempt.
Opta note that Nicolas Anelka - [8.0] to be First Goalscorer - has hit five past Blackburn in six appearances for Chelsea. Branislav Ivanovic, meanwhile, scored in both meetings between the two sides last season and the Serbian should be around [9.0] To Score at any time.
Recommended Bets:
Arsenal v West Brom - Both Teams To Score @ [1.82]
Aston Villa v Norwich - Under 2.5 Goals @ [2.0]
Blackburn v Chelsea - Over 3.5 Goals @ [2.58]
It's almost impossible to second-guess Roberto Mancini's team selections but regardless of who starts upfront, Lee Dixon is backing City's roll to keep going, and he's hoping a certain E.Dzeko makes the team-sheet......
When Sir Alex Ferguson arrived, Manchester United hadn't won the title for nearly 20 years. In the 25 he's been in charge, they've won 12. Max Liu pays tribute to the greatest manager of the greatest team....
Newcastle sit third in the table before this weekend's action but the next four games offer an exacting test and it all begins with Everton's visit on Saturday lunchtime. Lee Dixon thinks it'll be mighty close...
October 22, 2011
Premier League Previews: Reebok Stadium to serve up goal-fest
Premier League / Mike Norman / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Expect goals when Bolton host Sunderland this weekend
"Don’t look for any other bets in the Bolton v Sunderland fixture, the stats suggest that Over 2.5 Goals should be available to back at around [1.6], so the fact that we can lump on at [2.0] is a gift from football heaven."
There's one outstanding bet this weekend as far as Mike Norman is concerned, and it comes in the Bolton v Sunderland game where goals should be the order of the day.
Aston Villa v West Brom, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Aston Villa [2.1], West Brom [4.2], The Draw [3.4]
On the plus side new Aston Villa boss Alex McLeish has overseen just one defeat in the league this season, on the negative side Villa have won just 25% of their league games under their controversially-appointed new boss. Put simply, a lot of Villa fans are still angered that ex-Birmingham manager McLeish has been put in charge and only a Midlands derby victory over West Brom will temporarily appease their disappointment.
The Baggies have also won just a quarter of their league games this term and Roy Hodgson's men face a difficult task in trying to improve that ratio in this encounter. As the Opta stats show, Albion have won just one of their 12 Midlands derbies away from home whilst Villa have lost just one of their 15 home derbies.
In addition, you have to go back nearly 30 years to find the last time West Brom won at Villa Park. A home win has to be the selection then, especially as the team news suggests they'll be at full strength, but perhaps the Goals markets offer the best opportunity to profit from this game.
Opta show that eight of the last nine meetings between these two have resulted in both teams getting on the score sheet, whilst six of those encounters finished with at least three goals being scored. Both teams to Score is available to back at [1.82], whilst the Over 2.5 Goals option looks generously priced at [2.1].
Bolton v Sunderland, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Bolton [2.26], Sunderland [3.7], The Draw [3.4]
Bolton ended a miserable run of form (six league defeats in a row) when they beat Wigan at the DW Stadium last week and now their task is to halt a horrible home run which has seen them lose six consecutive home games stretching back to last season. Alarmingly, despite some top clubs visiting the Reebok, the Trotters have conceded a staggering 15 goals in their four home defeats this term.
So perhaps the last thing Owen Coyle needs right now is a home tie against a side - Sunderland - that they have lost to on the last four occasions. The Black Cats don't have the best away record in the division, but they did beat Bolton at the Reebok at the end of last season and they will be confident of doing the same again.
Entertainment is usually guaranteed when Bolton take to the field, as Opta point out, the Trotters have the fourth best scoring record in the division as well as the worst defensive record. In fact, a total of 36 goals have been scored in the eight league games involving Bolton this season, and every one of those eight games has produced Over 2.5 Goals. Incredibly then, Over 2.5 Goals is available to back at [2.0] here. Am I missing something? Seemingly not as Opta also point out that Sunderland's last five Premier League games have also resulted in at least three goals being scored.
Don't look for any other bets in this fixture, the stats suggest Over 2.5 Goals should be available to back at around [1.6], so the fact that we can lump on at [2.0] is a gift from football heaven.
Newcastle v Wigan, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Newcastle [1.6], Wigan [7.2], The Draw [4.1]
Odds of just [1.6] for a Newcastle victory, fans talking about an excellent team spirit, Mike Ashley not receiving criticism. Is this the same Newcastle that we all know and love? If the Magpies carry on the way they are going Ashley will be granted freedom of the city; they're a fickle bunch up there I can tell you.
On a serious note it's enjoyable to see Newcastle doing so well for a club that has had so much upheaval in recent years, and more importantly, hasn't spent much money this season. Contrast that to neighbours Sunderland who have spent twice as much this term and are languishing at the wrong end of the table. Early days and all that I know.
As far as this game goes I'm not prepared to back Newcastle to win at [1.6]; they may well do so, and I hope they do, but I don't believe Wigan are as bad as their league position suggests and this could be a tight game. Opta point out that Alan Pardew's men have the joint best defensive record in the division this term, and the fact that the Latics have scored just three goals in their last six league away games suggests to me that a Newcastle Clean Sheet is worth a punt at [2.3].
Opta stats also show that since 2005, six of the 11 meetings between Newcastle and Wigan have resulted in a scoreline of just 1-0. This persuade me to have a wager on the Under 1.5 Goals option at a generous looking [4.2].
Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals at [2.0] in Bolton v Sunderland
Back Over 2.5 Goals at [2.1] in Aston Villa v West Brom
Back Both teams to Score @ [1.82] in Aston Villa v West Brom
Back Yes to Newcastle Clean Sheet @ [2.3] v Wigan
Back Under 1.5 Goals @ [4.2] in Newcastle v Wigan
Wolves are mired in a five-game losing streak but Saturday's early Premier League kick-off gives them the best opportunity yet to break that horrible run, says Lee Dixon...
There's no Champions League football at White Hart Lane this year and as a result slightly less media attention. Away from the spotlight, Harry Redknapp's Spurs keep on improving in the league....
Ahead of the Manchester derby on Sunday, City and United fans are being encouraged to vent their frustrations and trash their Carlos Tevez shirts in exchange for brand new ones....
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