League Two Previews: Highflying Gulls and Robins to win again

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 16 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Torquay boss Martin Ling

"The fact Torquay are spreading the goals around the team can be considered a reason for their success – as is a resolute defence."

You'll be hard pushed to find a more in-form side than Torquay and Swindon in English football at present, and Ian Lamont believes both will continue their good form on Saturday afternoon.

Torquay v Bradford, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Torquay [1.82], Bradford [4.7], The Draw [3.7]

I am sure Torquay's seven straight wins must be some sort of record (they jointly hold a record for consecutive draws in English football, with eight). Martin Ling claims they are the best in England on current form, with a remarkable 41 points from a possible 48.

There is certainly little reason, on form, to believe that Bradford will defeat them. Not at Plainmoor, anyway, where Gillingham were the last team to win - 5-2, back in October. Only Oxford have left the West Country with anything since. The Gulls stormed to the top early last season but couldn't keep it going, before rallying and reaching the play-off finals.

Their current run is phenomenal, yet nobody has scored in double figures (Lee Mansell tops the list with eight). The fact they are spreading the goals around the team can be considered a reason for their success - as is a resolute defence. The last four games have been won 1-0, as have seven of their last 11 results.

Phil Parkinson's visitors, precariously poised in the bottom five, are still seeking their first win of 2012. They have to be watched late in games, because Andrew Davies equalised on 90 minutes at home to Port Vale on Tuesday - the third time the Bantams have scored in the last three minutes in five outings. One was in the FA Cup, but the other, from Marcel Seip, also snatched a point - at home to Morecambe.

Back Torquay to beat Bradford @ [1.82]

Hereford v Swindon, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Hereford [5.2] Swindon [1.75], The Draw [3.9]

The Bulls have picked up some valuable points against promotion-chasing teams, drawing at home to Hereford and at Oxford in recent weeks. Wins at Dagenham and Burton have given them the tiniest of cushions above the trapdoor. Their resolve will be severally tested against a side whose manager Paolo Di Canio tinkers with each week. It keeps the players on their toes and shows tactical nous to deal with the specifics of opponents. Paul Bodin, back from loan at Torquay, has begun scoring for the Robins, as have new faces Luke Rooney and Paul Benson. They have the guile to get round the hosts' wall. Like Torquay, they have seven straight league wins.

Back Swindon to beat Hereford @ [1.75]

Accrington v Plymouth, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Accrington [1.82], Plymouth [4.7], The Draw [3.7]

It is always hard to justify backing Accrington at odds-on, I find. They are the perennial over-achievers in League Two. John Coleman, in his 13 years before quitting for Rochdale, turned them from a Northern League side into one that had serious play-off credentials in this division. But they are so often priced as underdogs that when they are not you start looking for reasons to oppose them.

Plymouth, simply, must improve their away form to stay up. There is a chance they can do it if Nick Chadwick and Burnley loanee Alex MacDonald can link up to create chances or score. A hard-earned point at home to Barnet is one thing, notching more points on the road, to add to the three at Bristol and ones at Aldershot and Bradford in December, is another challenge. Stanley offer them a chink of light, with five home defeats. This might be a chance for the Pilgrims to add to Accrington's solitary home draw. Laying the hosts covers that possibility.

Lay Accrington to beat Plymouth @ [1.84]

Burton v Rotherham, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Burton [2.88], Rotherham [2.6], The Draw [3.4]

Tipping a draw is always a bit of a long shot, but an initial look at the prices on this game seemed to accurately reflect the chances of a draw. Rotherham appear to be out of their recent bad run of three defeats, although they have only won once in four away trips. That was at Southend, who were not in great form themselves at that point. Burton lost again on Tuesday, to Crewe, meaning only two points from seven games now. That, combined with Shaun Harrad and Alex Revell being in scoring mood for the Millers, swings the result in favour of the visitors as they bid to hang on to play-off hopes.

Back Rotherham to beat Burton @ [2.66]

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The Championship Betting: Foxes can see of The Robins in no time

Championship / Andrew French / 17 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Leicester City are on a terrific run of form under new boss Sven-Goran Eriksson

"In each of Leicester's four successive wins they have been ahead after 45 minutes – and they have not taken the lead in any of that quartet later than the 28th minute, which suggests boss Sven-Goran Eriksson has them ready from the off."

Just like our Championship expert Andrew French, Leicester City are in fantastic form at the moment, and Andrew can see the Foxes winning again this weekend as well as a win for Millwall and goals at the Liberty Stadium.

Leicester v Bristol City

There's so much to like about Leicester at the moment, and plenty of reasons to suggest Bristol City will not offer much resistance as the Foxes march towards a fifth successive victory. So, it's no surprise to see the home side as short as [1.44] for the win - and while I am pretty confident they will take three points, that's too skinny to interest me. Therefore, I was pleased to see that Leicester/Leicester in the Hal Time/Full Time market was a far more agreeable [2.12] - especially as recent trends suggest the Foxes will be in control of this one by the break. In each of their four successive wins they have been ahead after 45 minutes - and they have not taken the lead in any of that quartet later than the 28th minute, which suggests boss Sven-Goran Eriksson has them ready from the off. Bristol City have lost four of their last six: and in three of those defeats, they have been trailing at the interval. Leicester also show no mercy to struggling opponents - they have won five of seven against bottom-half sides (drawing the other two).

Back Leicester HT/Leicester FT [2.12]

Millwall v Middlesbrough

I am surprised to see Millwall trading at odds against. The Lions have been just about unplayable at home recently, with six consecutive wins during which time they have conceded only one goal. In fact, they have been in good form generally with only two defeats in 14 outings and both of those were away to teams with promotion aspirations (Norwich and Leicester). Boro had been on a decent run under Tony Mowbray, but back-to-back defeats have brought that to an end - and the way they threw a 3-1 lead away to lose 4-3 at home to Swansea on Saturday suggests they are still vulnerable at the back. Middlesbrough have not won away from home against a top-half side this season - while Millwall have won seven out of nine at The Den against teams below halfway.

Back Millwall at [2.16]

Swansea v Doncaster

For a top-six side that has won nine home games, Swansea's goalscoring record at the Liberty Stadium is particularly low: just 19 in 15 games. However, 14 of their 19 have come in games against bottom-half teams, giving them an average of much nearer two a game when entertaining struggling opponents. They cracked in four at Middlesbrough last weekend and they have got goals in them: they brushed aside lowly Crystal Palace 3-0 at home just over a month ago. What makes me think this game will have goals is the fact that Doncaster are the visitors. Never mind the fact they shipped six at home to Ipswich in midweek - Rovers have real defensive problems away from home. The 31 they have conceded on the road is the second worst in the division, and it gets even more pronounced when you consider they have let in 20 during seven trips to top-half sides: that is almost three a game. Donny away games produce an average of 3.64 goals a game - the highest in the division - and 10 of their 14 away trips (including three of the last four) would have paid out to Over 2.5 Goals backers.

Back Over 2.5 Goals at [1.96]

Since his winter break Andrew has had 15 winning bets from just 21 selections, resulting in a profit of £102.97 (£10 stake/liability on each selection)

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