Sunderland v Man Utd: Van Gaal can have faith in Reds' attack

"United had nine out of 13 over 2.5 goals away to teams below them last season and no opponent in that category managed to shut them out."

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9620/21

Andrew Atherley finds strong form lines in United's favour but believes over 2.5 goals is the better bet...

Sunderland v Manchester United
Sunday August 24, 16:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

Sunderland

It is difficult to know which Sunderland will turn up - the team that struggled for so long last season or the escapologists that conjured four straight wins (including at United and Chelsea) at the end of last season after all had seemed lost.

There were elements of both in the opening-day 2-2 draw at West Brom - a good start, followed by a loss of direction, but with the spirit to come back and earn a point.

Mostly the Black Cats have headed in the right direction under Gus Poyet, who took over directly after United's 2-1 win at the Stadium of Light early last October had made it four defeats out of four at home.

There was some recovery in their home form after that but, until the final flourish, Sunderland produced their best performances last season in the cup competitions - including a 2-1 home win over United in the Capital One Cup semi-final. 

While doubts remain over their consistency in the bread and butter of league football, and their overall quality, perhaps Poyet's men can summon that spirit again in front of a big crowd for their first home match of the season.

Manchester United

United had most problems last season in two key areas: matches against the top teams and in general at home to any side with pace and finishing ability.

The latter weakness resurfaced on the opening day with a 2-1 defeat by Swansea at Old Trafford but neither of those conditions applies here and it is notable that, even during last season's troubles, United had an excellent record in this type of away fixture.

Under David Moyes, United won 10 out of 12 on the road against teams that finished below them - making them the best team in the Premier League in that respect.

The key was their scoring power, which remains far superior to the attacking ability of most teams. Wayne Rooney played nine of those games and United's record was W7 D1 L1, while Robin Van Persie played six, with United winning five and losing one.

Both of them playing together was a rarity last season - one of the big problems faced by Moyes - and when they did United's record away to teams below them was W4 D0 L1.

Overall, with Rooney and Van Persie in harness, United's away record against all teams outside the big six is W9 D2 L1 since the Dutchman's arrival at the club, which points to a strong win chance at 1.824/5 if Van Persie returns to the starting line-up at the Stadium of Light. Even if he doesn't, Rooney and co have enough quality to damage the hosts.

Match Odds

Poyet's home record in the Premier League is W5 D3 L7 but, like much else about Sunderland's form, it is black and white - having beaten Newcastle and Manchester City in their first two home league games under Poyet, two of their three subsequent victories came against bottom-four finishers.

Even though the form lines point to a United win, the big issue is whether Louis Van Gaal's imposition of a new system will affect their balance. The players did not appear comfortable with 3-5-2 against Swansea last weekend and it will be interesting to see if Van Gaal switches to 4-3-3 - for so long his preferred system.

That might make the best use of United's attacking talents but could leave them more open too, which raises enough doubt to swerve them at odds-on.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The best bet might be Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9620/21 - better odds than are available for a United win but just as well signposted by the stats.

United had nine out of 13 over 2.5 goals away to teams below them last season and no opponent in that category managed to shut them out. In fact, you have to go back to Norwich in November 2012 to find a team from outside the top seven (the big six plus Everton) that has stopped them scoring on the road.

That is a run of 22 games in that category and United have scored at least twice in 16 of them, which puts over 2.5 goals well within reach.

Sunderland are capable of adding to the total, too, as one of their standout stats under Poyet is the fact that they scored in 14 of their 16 league games against last season's top-half teams.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9620/21 (1pt)

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Australia v England First ODI Betting : Hosts could hammer naive bowling attack

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Singapore Cup: Attack too strong at Kranji

Mull Of Killough fared best of the British raiders in fifth behind Military Attack, the ultra-impressive winner of the Singapore Airlines International Cup at Kranji...

Mull Of Killough fared best of the British raiders in fifth behind Military Attack, the ultra-impressive winner of the Singapore Airlines International Cup at Kranji...

Raced under the name of Rave for John Hills in Britain, Military Attack has developed a new lease of life as a five-year-old in Hong Kong and put this race to bed within a matter of strides.

Ed Dunlop's globetrotter Red Cadeaux was forced to concede plenty of ground by making his move wide down the back straight and he could never land a blow, while Godolphin's Hunter's Light looked to be travelling well but found little.

Mull Of Killough was always in a decent position under George Baker but was run out of the places close home.

Jockey Zac Purton was allowed the luxury of easing right down on the John Moore-trained winner, with Dan Exel, formerly Dunboyne Express during his racing days in Ireland, finishing second.

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Six Nations Stat Attack: France v Ireland

Match Previews / Geoffrey Riddle / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Vincent Clerc has a superb record against Ireland

"France should win this match, and win it well and they look an excellent investment at [1.4]... "

Geoffrey Riddle shares Will Greenwood's view that France should win and win well against Ireland in Paris on Sunday. Our man is also backing a certain French winger to terrorise the visitors...

Stat attack

• Since the IRB world rankings were launched in 2003, France have never enjoyed a greater margin of superiority in the rankings when hosting Ireland in Paris.

• Ireland have won just once in Paris since 1972 and of those 21 matches in the French capital Ireland would have been losers with a seven-point start 15 times. A Brian O'Driscoll hat-trick set up a famous Irish victory in 2000 but the centre is out injured.

• France have led at half-time in seven of their last eight matches in all competitions in Paris against Ireland. You have to go back to 2009 when New Zealand played in Paris in the autumn for the last time Les Bleus trailed at half-time at home.

• France have scored the first try of the match in the last seven matches against Ireland.

• France have won nine consecutive games at the Stade de France, a run of wins stretching back to their 24-13 defeat at the hands of England in 2008

• Ireland have been losers in the main match handicap in five of their last six road matches in the Six Nations.

• Vincent Clerc represents France's most potent attacking threat against Ireland, having scored five times in his six Championship appearances against them.

• France coach Philippe Saint-André has made two changes to the side that defeated Scotland 17-23 at Murrayfield. Clement Poitrenaud makes a timely return to the full back spot after injury ruled Maxime Medard out of this weekend's clash. Meanwhile Clermont Auvergne flanker Julien Bonnaire is named at blindside wing-forward, with Imanol Harinordoquyswitching to No.8. He replaces Toulouse No.8 Louis Picamoles, who drops to the bench.

• Declan Kidney has adopted to keep the same starting line-up who beat Italy 42-10 at the Aviva Stadium, and the same XV that was originally picked to face France for the postponed game three weeks ago.

Preview

France were considered favourites over Ireland by nine to ten points before the farcical situation which saw the match called off at the 11th hour three weeks ago. Now, after Ireland's thumping win over Italy and France's victory in Edinburgh, the layers have shaved a point or two off the match handicap with France enjoying just a seven-point deficit with some layers in the betting village.

Form is obviously subjective, but according to the IRB rankings system, Ireland have not been this poor since Declan Kidney picked up the pieces from Eddie O'Sullivan before moulding the squad into a Grand Slam winning side in the 2008-09 season.

France enjoy one of their biggest advantages since the Six Nations was formed in 2000 with regards to the IRB rankings and in my database I have found 70 matches of a similar nature which have taken place in that time frame.

There are 46 home teams that won by more than seven points in that sample, with the average points differential standing at 14 in the 70 matches overall. France should win this match, and win it well and they look an excellent investment at [1.4] on Betfair, which filters down to the subsidiary markets.

France have an exceptional record against Ireland at home, scoring the opening try in the last seven encounters and although Kidney's side are one of the better teams in the tournament away from home, France look too strong and should be in front at half-time and full-time.

Ireland continue to operate without the ageing magic of Brian O'Driscoll, but France's most potent attacking weapon still takes the field.

The trend in this year's tournament is that backs are scoring all the tries - Tom Court, Rory Best and Sergio Parisse are the only forwards to have scored so far - and Wesley Forfana, the France centre, has confidently taken the step up from Heineken Cup rugby to international level. His tries and all-round game have helped France immeasurably and he can take some of the attention off team-mate Vincent Clerc, who has a sublime scoring record against the Irish over the years, scoring over half of his tries in the tournament against Ireland.

Recommended Bet
3pt Back France @ [1.4]
2pts Back France to win half-time/full-time @ [1.89]
1pt Back Vincent Clerc to score a try @ [2.46]

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Six Nations Stat Attack: England v Wales

Match Previews / Geoffrey Riddle / 24 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

England look laboured under Lancaster but they are winning

"England have rewarded handicap backers on the main line in four of the last five occasions they have been considered outsiders at home."

Geoffrey Riddle assesses the stats to see if England can upset the odds against a rampant Wales ...

• England's starting XV is their most inexperienced line-up in the Championship since the 1989 match against Ireland - seven of the starting XV boast three caps or fewer.

• England may have dominated possession and territory against Italy a fortnight ago, but they only made one line break.

• Wales' last win at Twickenham was a 26-19 victory in 2008. Their last victory at Twickenham before that day was an 11-3 win in 1988.

• Wales were the last team to score a try against England in the second half of a match. They scored one in Cardiff in mid-August following two at Twickenham in their 23-19 defeat a week previously.

• As an illustration of the perceived fortunes of both sides since that summer double header, when Wales played England in London, Martin Johnson's side were considered 13-point favourites.

• The last eight times Wales have been favourites away from home, and not on neutral turf at the World Cup, they have rewarded handicap backers on the main line only two times - against Scotland in 2009 when winning 26-13 and against USA when winning 48-15 in the same year.

• England have been winners on the main handicap line against Wales in four of the last five encounters. England have also rewarded handicap backers on the main line in four of the last five occasions they have been considered outsiders at home.

• England coach Stuart Lancaster has gambled by bringing in Manu Tuilagi at outside centre, with Owen Farrell starting at fly-half in place of Charlie Hodgson, who is injured. Toby Flood is on the bench while Lee Dickson and Ben Morgan start at scrum half and No.8 in place respectively of Ben Youngs and Phil Dowson.

• Wales have made three changes to the side that defeated Scotland 27-13 a fortnight ago. Sam Warburton replaces Aaron Shingler at open side flanker. Ken Owens comes in at hooker in place of the injured Huw Bennett while Alun Wyn Jones makes his first start in the Championship since losing to France last year which means Ryan Jones drops to the bench.

• England lost two scrums and three lineouts against Italy. Wales's primary attacking platform during the World Cup was off the lineout, which highlights the significance of the return of Alun Wyn Jones.

• Of the 94 matches in the Six Nations where teams ranked higher by the IRB have hosted lower-rated opposition, the away side has won just 15.

Preview

Wales may appear to have a decent chance improving their poor record at Twickenham in the Six Nations against England on Saturday, but they look a skinny price to win only their third match in London in 24 years.

Warren Gatland's side are gunning for a quick-fire Triple Crown with victories over Ireland and Scotland in the bag and are priced at just [1.7] on Betfair to record their 20th such trophy.
Wales have not been good value on the main handicap line away from Cardiff in recent seasons, and despite England's performances both under Stuart Lancaster and Martin Johnson looking laborious, the fact remains that they are still winning matches - 12 of their last 15.

The perception of England does not match their effectiveness and considering England are still rated higher in the world rankings than Wales at present that always presents value opportunities.

Admittedly, without the charge-down capabilities of Charlie Hodgson, it is difficult to see how England, judge on this seasons' efforts, are going to cross the tryline but, with Manu Tuilagi in the mix and Owen Farrell given the chance to run the show at fly-half, things should be different.

Wales and England have a similar approach in that they wear teams down and strike in the second half counting on superior fitness levels. I have mentioned in the past two rounds both team's excellent scoring records after the break as well as their sharp defensive abilities - these two sides could tackle each other to a standstill for the entire 80 minutes.

As such the total points market looks pitched too high and it is easy to see why in the early liquidity the 'unders' are priced at 1.7. New Zealand and South Africa are the only visiting teams to have scored more than 20 points at Twickenham since 2009 and with England looking unlikely to reach that level either, your investment should be fairly safe.

Recommended Bet (1-5pt staking plan)

2pts under 41.5 total points
1pt lay Wales @ [1.7]

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Six Nations Stat Attack: Italy v England

Match Previews / Geoffrey Riddle / 09 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Geoffrey believes England's back can outclass Italy's

"Italy’s famed scrum was beaten up by France last week and, although England’s tight-five is no match for Les Bleus, they can at least gain parity up front."

Geoffrey Riddle believes that England can record a second successive victory when they travel to Rome on Saturday...

Stat attack

• Italy made more offloads in the tackle than France last week - 12, which is equal to Ireland, Wales and England put together.

• Italy continue to be one of the cleanest sides in the tournament, conceding only six penalties to France last week - England will have to score tries.

• Under Nick Mallett, Italy played ten matches at home in the Six Nations and were winners on the main handicap line eight times.

• Italy scored 13 tries at RWC 2011, six of which were scored by forwards.

• Italy will field a total of 698 caps when they take the field against England, with another 116 caps on the bench. England have just 248 in their starting XV.

• England's last two visits to Rome have resulted in two narrow victories, but four and five points.

• At the Rugby World Cup, England scored 20 tries, 19 of which were scored by the backs.

• England scored almost twice as many tries in the second half compared to the first at the World Cup and did not concede a single touchdown after the break in New Zealand - the only team in the tournament to do so.

• Italy have never won a Test at the 82,000-capacity Stadio Olimpico.

Preview

England have never been handed a single-figure match handicap against Italy in the Six Nations, but after their laboured victory over Scotland last week Betfair have chalked up a 7.5-point differential between the two sides.

The last two times Italy have hosted England in Rome they have been tight affairs, with Martin Johnson's side edging clear by four and five points in 2008 and 2010 respectively.

Johnson never presided over a win in Edinburgh and although Stuart Lancaster's side were fortunate to succeed thanks to Charlie Hodgson's charge down, momentum is everything in the Six Nations.

Italy's famed scrum was beaten up by France last week and, although England's tight-five is no match for Les Bleus, they can at least gain parity up front.

England's backs are far superior to Italy's and during the World Cup England relied heavily on their backline to score tries. England's forwards scored only one try in New Zealand and if Chris Robshaw's pack front up then England should win this.

Recomended Bet (1-5pt staking plan):
2pts Back England to win by under 12.5 points

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Australian Open Stat Attack: Makarova can cause a Shockarova over Sharapova

Australian Open Betting / Ben Caudell / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Hair today, out of the Australian Open by tomorrow.

"As always, Sharapova has a pretty high rate of double faults so far at this event (16) and is stark contrast, Makarova has won far more second serve points than her opponent and moreover, holds superior stats on her second serve return winning (79)."

Two huge upsets could be on the cards according to the stats, says Ben Caudell. Novak Djokovic and Maria Sharapova backers beware...

Five Reasons to Back Ferrer +7.5 Games @ [2.24] and @ 8.80 to win match against Novak Djokovic (Small Bet)

David Ferrer is no mug, and the [8.80] inflated odds on the Spaniard pre-match looks to represent great value for the purpose of trading out at a shorter price. Even though Djokovic is close to near perfection as a tennis player, he is human after all, and therefore, as he did against Lleyton Hewitt, the Serbian can at times have the odd lapse in concentration. Not to mention a little nervous tension that can often go against him. Ferrer on other hand remains the same throughout; he is a dogged performer who grinds out result after result, a true gritty player and someone who will never give up. Therefore he is always worth backing irrespective of who he is playing and whenever he is priced as a massive underdog.

•Excluding any exhibition event, Ferrer has a decent record against Djokovic, having defeated the world number one on five occasions. Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 6-5; however Ferrer was triumphant in their most recent competitive match - 6-3 6-2 - at the World Tour Finals in London, November 2011.

•Ferrer, who is now an established top ten ranked player at number five in the world, already has a tournament title to his name in 2012, the Auckland Open hard-court event. With his confidence at an all-time high, having also compiled wins over four top ten ranked players within the last three months - Rafael Nadal, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray - David Ferrer will come into this match-up with real optimism and self belief knowing that this could be his best ever Grand Slam result.

•The Spanish number two has a great record at the Australian Open; He reached the semi-final stage in 2011 and has won 90% of his last ten matches, and 72% since January 2000. Ferrer also comes into this match-up having won eight matches in a row, four in a row in Australia, eight in a row on hard-courts, and six in a row in five set matches.

•Although Djokovic has lost only seven matches from his last fifty, it is important to note that six of these have come in the last five months with the majority during November and December 2011. During these months Djokovic has lost to Andy Murray, Juan Martin Del Potro, Kei Nishikori, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Janko Tipsarevic and David Ferrer.

•Interestingly, today's quarter-final match with Djokovic will be only the second time Ferrer has been priced at +6.0 and above in a Grand Slam event. The Spanish grinder's SP when he defeated fellow countryman Rafael Nadal at the quarter final stage 6-4 6-2 6-3 of the 2011 Australian Open was [7.50]. His opening odds against Robin Soderling at Wimbledon 2010 was 6.52. However, even though Ferrer managed to lose in an epic five set battle, his price would have dropped from that starting price quite considerably.

Four Reasons to Back Ekaterina Makarova @ [4.30] to defeat Maria Sharapova

•Fellow Russians Makarova and Sharapova face each other for the third time in their contrasting careers with Maria leading the head-to-head series 2-0; Makarova did however manage to take a set off Sharapova in May of last year on the clay courts of Madrid and will be buoyed by her sensational form at this year's Australian Open.

•Who'd have thought Ekaterina Makarova would be facing Maria Sharapova for a place in the semi-finals when the draw for the 2012 Aus Open was made over a week ago? Having dropped just the one set to Tamarine Tanasugarn in the first round, the 23 year-old has gone on to defeat three seeded players in a row and all three in straight sets......She dispatched of one of the pre-tournament favourites, Kaia Kanepi 6-2 7-5, seventh seed Vera Zvonareva 7-6 6-1, and the biggest upset of her career, Serena Williams 6-2 6-3. These four wins has meant that Makarova's earnings ROI (return on investment) is at an incredible 180% from her last ten matches. In total disparity, Sharapova has a ROI of -16.3% from her last ten.

•As always, Sharapova has a pretty high rate of double faults so far at this event (16) and is stark contrast, Makarova has won far more second serve points than her opponent and moreover, holds superior stats on her second serve return winning (79). Only Kim Clijsters and Victoria Azarenka are ahead in the leaders' table for this stat. If the weather forecasts wind, make sure you double your stake on Makarova because Sharapova struggles with her high ball toss and massive back swing on her ground strokes. She hates blustery weather..

•Make sure you back Makarova pre-match as a good start may see her price drop heavily, especially if conditions are tough.

If you haven't bet on the Open - or any event in Australia and New Zealand - before, there are a few things you need to know. For example, you have to move funds into your 'Australian Wallet' before placing a bet. We've put together a handy guide to how it all works, including short video clips.

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Australian Open Stat Attack: Ivanovic can test Kvitova

Australian Open Betting / Ben Caudell / 22 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Aan Ivanovic looks a far better player after enduring a punishing fitness regime

"Although Kvitova has won twenty one of her last twenty two matches, she is prone to the occasional lapse in concentration and has conceded sets in seven of her last fourteen matches."

Petra Kvitova, a pretender to the number one ranking, is up aginst a former world number one in Ana Ivanovic. The beautiful Serb may not be able to knock out the Wimbledon champ but she should be able to take a set, say the stats of Ben Caudell.

4 Reasons to Lay Petra Kvitova 2-0 @ [1.81] against Ana Ivanovic

•Former world number one Ana Ivanovic has undertaken a strict fitness regime in recent months that has seen her rise in the world rankings. It has improved her serve and consistency from the back of the court and that may in part be due to her new coach and fitness coach. This new found confidence has been in abundance this past week in Melbourne as the tennis pin-up is yet to drop a set in her opening three matches.

• Ana, the 2008 French Open Champion has won 80% of her last ten matches at Grand Slam leve,l compiles credible stats against left-handers recording 71% of wins from her last fifty. The Serbian has also won four of her last six when opponent is a big server.

•Although Kvitova was ranked outside of the top 30 in 2008 and 2009, the years in which Ivanovic defeated the Belarusian, a 3-0 head-to-head series lead still provides a massive psychological advantage coming into today's match in favour of Ivanovic. With all three wins being played on hard (Brisbane 2009 - 6-4 6-2, Zurich 2008 - 6-1 6-4, Montreal 6-3 4-6 6-3) there is definitely value in laying Kvitova 2-0 @ [1.81] in the set betting market.

•Although Kvitova has won twenty one of her last twenty two matches, she is prone to the occasional lapse in concentration and has conceded sets in seven of her last fourteen matches. This includes a three set second round win at this year's Australian Open against Carla Suarez Navarro.

4 Reasons to back Kei Nishikori to defeat Jo Wilfried Tsonga @ [5.0] (Small Bet)

Kei Nishikori is one of my favourite players at the moment so my heart may be slightly ruling my head over today's match-up. But there are a few sound reasons why the Japanese superstar could upset all the odds to make it through to the quarter finals of a Grand Slam event for the first time in his fledging career.

•Firstly, the 22 year-old has defeated the Frenchman twice in the last three months and therefore leads the head-to-head series 2-0. Although their most recent match-up in the Kooyong exhibition event can possibly be discounted due to Tsonga suffering from jetlag and fatigue (which Kei won 1-6 6-4 6-1), the Japanese did triumph over a fully fit Tsonga in Shanghai in October of last year - 6-7 6-4 6-4.

•Nishikori seems to hold no fear when competing against the top players, having also defeated Novak Djokovic in Basel, Dolgopolov and Tsonga in Shanghai, and Nicolas Almagro in Kuala Lumpar. He holds a 50% match win record against top ten players since January 2011.

•Ranked 26 in the world and on the rise, Nishikori comes into this match having won five in a row in five set matches, five in a row on hard-courts and in Australia. Moreover, he has a great record against big servers, winning ten of his last eleven.

•With superior tournament stats on 1st serve %, 2nd serve points won, and total break points won, I'll be hoping that with the millions of Japanese fans tuning into watch their sporting hero, Kei puts in an a dogged performance and doesn't collapse under the weight of expectation.

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Opta Stats: Liverpool to keep Fulham's misfiring attack quiet

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 02 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

Liverpool head to Craven Cottage unbeaten in 11 in all competitions

"Fulham have failed to score in six of their last eight Premier League games against Liverpool."

Michael Lintorn has completed his weekly forage through Opta's magnificent stats, using them to pick out some bets for this weekend's Premier League games...

Wigan v Arsenal (Saturday, 15:00)
In the last four meetings between the Latics and the Gunners where both sides have scored, the team that netted the opening goal has won none (D1 L3)
This is one of several Opta nuggets indicating that this could be an occasion to take advantage on the always enormous odds offered on Betfair on a half-time/full-time turnaround. Also worth taking into account is the fact that Arsenal have dropped five points from winning positions late on in their last two visits to Wigan, yet have recovered seven from behind in their last four Premier League fixtures.
More stats

Everton v Stoke (Sunday, 15:00)
Everton have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six matches at Goodison Park
A dark financial cloud still lurks above Goodison Park but on the pitch things look far brighter, successive victories pushing them into the top half, when they are usually marginally clear of the drop zone at this stage. As the above stat hints, there is room for improvement defensively though, and Stoke will be confident of scoring past them having netted in nine of their last ten games.
More stats

Wolves v Sunderland (Sunday, 16:00, Sky Sports 1)
Neither side has kept a clean sheet in the last 10 meetings between Wolves and Sunderland
This match appears even more likely to be loaded with goals than the Everton one, as Wolves' last six encounters have featured a whopping 25 goals. As the above Opta trend reveals, this is a tie that tends to inspire both teams' forwards to hit top form and the defences to go AWOL, being breached on 19 separate occasions over the course of their four previous Premier League collisions.
More stats

Fulham v Liverpool (Monday, 20:00, Sky Sports 1)
Fulham have failed to score in six of their last eight Premier League games against Liverpool
Having been shut out on Thursday by Twente, Fulham's only goal in their last three outings was a Thomas Vermaelen own goal. That's not the kind of record that you want to take into a clash with a club who you traditionally struggle against, especially when they are in sensational form. Liverpool have conceded just twice in five games, and those blemishes were inflicted by Chelsea and Manchester City.
More stats

Recommended Bets:
Wigan to lead at half-time/Arsenal to lead at full-time @ [26.0]
Arsenal to lead at half-time/Wigan to lead at full-time @ [60.0]
Both teams to score in Everton v Stoke @ [1.96]
Both teams to score in Wolves v Sunderland @ [1.8]
Liverpool to keep a clean sheet at Fulham @ [2.84]

Click here to access dozens more priceless Opta statistics

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US Open Stat Attack: Boy from Brazil can upset home fans

US Open Betting / Ben Caudell / 31 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will the sun set on Ginepri's challenge?

"Souza is ranked at an all-time high of 90 in the world, 253 places higher than his opponent."

Ben Caudell explains why he expects an in-form Brazilian to upset an ailing American at Flushing Meadow today. Meanwhile, there's a lay of the day in the women's draw...

Five Reasons to Back

Joao Souza (BRA) to defeat Robby Ginepri (USA) @ [2.68]

• The 23-year-old Brazilian has hit a purple patch of form, winning nine of his last 11 matches, including making it through three rounds of qualifying to leap into the US Open first round proper for the first time in his fledging career.

• Souza is ranked at an all-time high of 90 in the world, 253 places higher than his opponent. Almost a year ago, Ginepri underwent left arm surgery after a biking accident. The American has been back in action since June and his results have been mixed; however, he has been unable to defeat a player ranked in the top 100.

• The hard courts at Flushing Meadows are reasonably slow and this can only favour the Brazilian who will be fitter and more accustomed to playing best of five sets. Ginepri is unlikely to be in peak physical condition and I believe he'll struggle to win three sets, especially as he has been away for so long. His last Grand Slam win came back in May 2009 at the French Open.

• Souza has a superior surface rating and match statistics, winning 63% within the last 12 months compared with 46% for Ginepri.

• Souza reached the semi-final of Kitzbuhel at the end of July, eventually losing to Robin Haase in three sets, after going on a six match winning streak. Ginepri has lost to players such as James Ward, ranked 174, and Ryyne Williams ranked 608.

2-0 lay of the day - lay Shuai Peng 2-0 v Tsvetana Pironkova @ [1.81]

• Peng leads the head-to-head 1-0 but Pironkova took the first set in Hobart 2011
• Pironkova has a good record at Grand Slams (7-3), reaching the 2011 Wimbledon quarter-final before losing to the eventual champion Petra Kvitova in three sets
• Peng has withdrawn from her last two hard-court tournaments, Cincinnati and Toronto, due to an unknown injury.

Sean Calvert tells us why Sabine Lisicki should be far too strong for her multiple Grand Slam winner opponent tonight and what other good bets lie in wait for us on day three of the US Open....

"And I'm on Kavcic tonight, you know my stats don't lie and I'm starting to feel it's right...to oppose Ivan Ljubicic", Ben Caudell chants from underneath his pile of stats books. Here are today's two bets....

Sean's buzzing after a successful start to a fortnight at Flushing Meadows. Can he land another pair of value bets on day two?...

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