Sunderland v Man Utd: Van Gaal can have faith in Reds' attack

"United had nine out of 13 over 2.5 goals away to teams below them last season and no opponent in that category managed to shut them out."

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Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9620/21

Andrew Atherley finds strong form lines in United's favour but believes over 2.5 goals is the better bet...

Sunderland v Manchester United
Sunday August 24, 16:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

Sunderland

It is difficult to know which Sunderland will turn up - the team that struggled for so long last season or the escapologists that conjured four straight wins (including at United and Chelsea) at the end of last season after all had seemed lost.

There were elements of both in the opening-day 2-2 draw at West Brom - a good start, followed by a loss of direction, but with the spirit to come back and earn a point.

Mostly the Black Cats have headed in the right direction under Gus Poyet, who took over directly after United's 2-1 win at the Stadium of Light early last October had made it four defeats out of four at home.

There was some recovery in their home form after that but, until the final flourish, Sunderland produced their best performances last season in the cup competitions - including a 2-1 home win over United in the Capital One Cup semi-final. 

While doubts remain over their consistency in the bread and butter of league football, and their overall quality, perhaps Poyet's men can summon that spirit again in front of a big crowd for their first home match of the season.

Manchester United

United had most problems last season in two key areas: matches against the top teams and in general at home to any side with pace and finishing ability.

The latter weakness resurfaced on the opening day with a 2-1 defeat by Swansea at Old Trafford but neither of those conditions applies here and it is notable that, even during last season's troubles, United had an excellent record in this type of away fixture.

Under David Moyes, United won 10 out of 12 on the road against teams that finished below them - making them the best team in the Premier League in that respect.

The key was their scoring power, which remains far superior to the attacking ability of most teams. Wayne Rooney played nine of those games and United's record was W7 D1 L1, while Robin Van Persie played six, with United winning five and losing one.

Both of them playing together was a rarity last season - one of the big problems faced by Moyes - and when they did United's record away to teams below them was W4 D0 L1.

Overall, with Rooney and Van Persie in harness, United's away record against all teams outside the big six is W9 D2 L1 since the Dutchman's arrival at the club, which points to a strong win chance at 1.824/5 if Van Persie returns to the starting line-up at the Stadium of Light. Even if he doesn't, Rooney and co have enough quality to damage the hosts.

Match Odds

Poyet's home record in the Premier League is W5 D3 L7 but, like much else about Sunderland's form, it is black and white - having beaten Newcastle and Manchester City in their first two home league games under Poyet, two of their three subsequent victories came against bottom-four finishers.

Even though the form lines point to a United win, the big issue is whether Louis Van Gaal's imposition of a new system will affect their balance. The players did not appear comfortable with 3-5-2 against Swansea last weekend and it will be interesting to see if Van Gaal switches to 4-3-3 - for so long his preferred system.

That might make the best use of United's attacking talents but could leave them more open too, which raises enough doubt to swerve them at odds-on.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The best bet might be Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9620/21 - better odds than are available for a United win but just as well signposted by the stats.

United had nine out of 13 over 2.5 goals away to teams below them last season and no opponent in that category managed to shut them out. In fact, you have to go back to Norwich in November 2012 to find a team from outside the top seven (the big six plus Everton) that has stopped them scoring on the road.

That is a run of 22 games in that category and United have scored at least twice in 16 of them, which puts over 2.5 goals well within reach.

Sunderland are capable of adding to the total, too, as one of their standout stats under Poyet is the fact that they scored in 14 of their 16 league games against last season's top-half teams.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9620/21 (1pt)

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Weekend Racing News: Bastiman keeps faith in Borderlescott

News / Timeform / 25 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Borderlescott may run at Musselburgh.

"It might come a bit soon, but there is a conditions race at Musselburgh in a fortnight's time..."

Robin Bastiman is keen to get Borderlescott back on turf over a straight five furlongs after he was well beaten on his seasonal return at Lingfield...

The dual Nunthorpe winner faded to finish eighth of nine runners in the Hever Sprint Stakes on Saturday.

Bastiman is now keen to give the 10-year-old another run, possibly at Musselburgh in two weeks' time, when conditions are more in his favour.

"I don't want to make excuses for him, but I don't think the pace was fast enough for him and I don't think the track really suited him," said the Wetherby handler.

"He's got that run under his belt now, so we'll get him back on the grass and back on a straight track and see how he gets on then before we make any decisions.

"People are saying he's not as good as he was, but if that's the case we can always lower his sights a bit and drop him in class.

"He's not the sort of horse you can just say we'll retire him now, because he still enjoys it and still has that enthusiasm.

"It might come a bit soon, but there is a conditions race at Musselburgh in a fortnight's time.

"He'd have no penalties there, so we'll try and go that way and we'll learn more then.

"We'll retire him if he doesn't look like he wants to do it, but, at the moment, he's enjoying himself."

Trainer Tom Taaffe has secured the services of Andrew Lynch for the ride on Treacle in the Grand National at Aintree on April 14......

Saturday's Group 1 Coolmore Classic over 1500m at Rosehill saw former champion rider, now trainer Ron Quinton, achieve a unique a milestone when Ofcourseican rallied late to claim the major end of the prize writes Timeform Australia's Gary Crispe......

Premio Loco landed the Group 3 Winter Derby at Lingfield on Saturday under an excellent ride from George Baker......

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Keep faith with Val Mondo

Timeform Radio Tip / Dan Barber / 23 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Dan is backing two at Lingfield this afternoon

"Even better value than Val Mondo could come in the shape of Mr Hooper in the extended 19f novice hurdle at 14:20."

Timeform's Jumps Editor Dan Barber sticks to what he knows best - whilst also strongly recommending everyone pays close attention to Dubai expert Stephen Molyneux's Smartplays for bets on today's Meydan card - on a busy Thursday afternoon.

A few years back, the horse in question was called Maria Antonia and, until yesterday, Faasel was another prime example; my horse; the one that can't run without you backing it; the so-called path to the poorhouse.

I'm worried that Val Mondo (16:20) could be the latest 'one', as he provided a race-reader's dream when shaping so well at Lingfield only to bump into a suddenly much-improved sort (Magic Prospect) on his subsequent handicap debut. That could be the cue for a string of frustrating near misses at the hands of other surprise packages, but Val Mondo still has to be kept on side from a mark only 5lb higher. Not only is that latest Taunton form really strong, but Val Mondo also has Flat form that implies he'll prove a lot better still; how many of his ten rivals today could, for instance, have won a German St Leger?

Even better value than Val Mondo could come in the shape of Mr Hooper in the extended 19f novice hurdle earlier on the card (14:20). His absence since last March is something of a worry, but his impressive defeat of the likes of Gospel Preacher, Mike Towey and Black Thunder in a Chepstow bumper on that sole previous racecourse appearance marks him down as the best horse in this race, while the fact he receives 7lb from the relatively ordinary pair of previous hurdles winners is another boon. His lack of experience is very much factored into his price.

The final race which interests me most today is Huntingdon's opener at 14:00. Admittedly, Dreambrook Lady is a fast-improving mare who would have taken her handicap record to 2-2 at Chepstow last time had she not falled at the last, but that was a decidedly weak affair whichever way it's sliced. A better play is to split stakes on handicap newcomers Zennor (classy Flat performer who shaped well amongst good horses in jumpers' bumper at Kempton latest) and Spoil Me, the latter a classic Jonjo O'Neill-trained sort who very much caught the eye at Huntingdon last time.

Recommended Bets
Back Val Mondo @ [3.35] in the 16:20 @ Lingfield
Back Mr Hooper @ [3.95] in the 14:20 @ Lingfield
Back Zennor @ [7.6] and Spoil Me @ [9.2] in the 14:00 @ Huntingdon

David Cleary makes the case for a pair of promising runners on Wednesday afternoon......

Will Hayler likes the look of two runners on the Monday afternoon card......

Andrew Sheret selects two bets from Sunday afternoon's cards......

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Timeform Irish SmartPlays: Place your faith in Balmont Mast

Ireland / Patrick Jupp / 05 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

The action at Navan is due to get under way at 14:35 today.

"The opening maiden over five furlongs looks to contain plenty of dead wood and a safe play could be Balmont Mast for a place only."

Another day where big fields predominate in Ireland as our attention turns to a seven-race card at Navan...

The opening maiden over five furlongs (14:35) looks to contain plenty of dead wood and a safe play could be Balmont Mast for a place only. Balmont Mast is clearly temperamental, which makes an additional win bet a risky proposition, but he also has some of the best form on offer and does tend to travel well into his races before hanging fire so his temperament isn't such a concern for this type of play (already placed three times in career), while a good seasonal reappearance allays worries about a five-month absence.

The apprentice handicap over the same course and distance half an hour later looks a relatively weak affair despite the field size, with in-form horses thin on the ground, let alone well-treated ones. With that in mind it could be worth chancing Wellmarked. Admittedly the races in which he's been shaping well of late have come over a mile, but he did race freely and travel strongly for a long way before fading last time and hasn't been long with the yard of Peter Fahey, while his mark on turf looks very attractive.

There is an element of risk attached to backing Pineau de Re in the two-mile handicap at 15:35, as this is almost certainly being used to get him spot on for another campaign over jumps. However, similar comments apply to the likely favourite Hidden Universe and there isn't much between them judged on hurdles form, Pineau de Re managing a second in a Grade 1 and a Grade 2 in his novice campaign. Other than Hidden Universe this doesn't look a strong race, so a win and place bet of Philip Fenton's charge makes plenty of appeal.

Timeform SmartPlays

Back Balmont Mast for a place in the 14:35
Back Wellmarked in the 15:05
Back Pineau de Re win and place in the 15:35

Big fields are the order of the day over the jumps at Tipperary but there are still some good bets to be had.......

Some quality jumps action at Tipperary this Sunday, as well as some competitive races on the Flat, and Timeform have three selections for you....

Gowran has passed an inspection and provides the only Irish action today.......

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