"United had nine out of 13 over 2.5 goals away to teams below them last season and no opponent in that category managed to shut them out."
Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9620/21
Andrew Atherley finds strong form lines in United's favour but believes over 2.5 goals is the better bet...
Sunderland v Manchester United
Sunday August 24, 16:00
Live on Sky Sports 1
Sunderland
It is difficult to know which Sunderland will turn up - the team that struggled for so long last season or the escapologists that conjured four straight wins (including at United and Chelsea) at the end of last season after all had seemed lost.
There were elements of both in the opening-day 2-2 draw at West Brom - a good start, followed by a loss of direction, but with the spirit to come back and earn a point.
Mostly the Black Cats have headed in the right direction under Gus Poyet, who took over directly after United's 2-1 win at the Stadium of Light early last October had made it four defeats out of four at home.
There was some recovery in their home form after that but, until the final flourish, Sunderland produced their best performances last season in the cup competitions - including a 2-1 home win over United in the Capital One Cup semi-final.
While doubts remain over their consistency in the bread and butter of league football, and their overall quality, perhaps Poyet's men can summon that spirit again in front of a big crowd for their first home match of the season.
Manchester United
United had most problems last season in two key areas: matches against the top teams and in general at home to any side with pace and finishing ability.
The latter weakness resurfaced on the opening day with a 2-1 defeat by Swansea at Old Trafford but neither of those conditions applies here and it is notable that, even during last season's troubles, United had an excellent record in this type of away fixture.
Under David Moyes, United won 10 out of 12 on the road against teams that finished below them - making them the best team in the Premier League in that respect.
The key was their scoring power, which remains far superior to the attacking ability of most teams. Wayne Rooney played nine of those games and United's record was W7 D1 L1, while Robin Van Persie played six, with United winning five and losing one.
Both of them playing together was a rarity last season - one of the big problems faced by Moyes - and when they did United's record away to teams below them was W4 D0 L1.
Overall, with Rooney and Van Persie in harness, United's away record against all teams outside the big six is W9 D2 L1 since the Dutchman's arrival at the club, which points to a strong win chance at 1.824/5 if Van Persie returns to the starting line-up at the Stadium of Light. Even if he doesn't, Rooney and co have enough quality to damage the hosts.
Match Odds
Poyet's home record in the Premier League is W5 D3 L7 but, like much else about Sunderland's form, it is black and white - having beaten Newcastle and Manchester City in their first two home league games under Poyet, two of their three subsequent victories came against bottom-four finishers.
Even though the form lines point to a United win, the big issue is whether Louis Van Gaal's imposition of a new system will affect their balance. The players did not appear comfortable with 3-5-2 against Swansea last weekend and it will be interesting to see if Van Gaal switches to 4-3-3 - for so long his preferred system.
That might make the best use of United's attacking talents but could leave them more open too, which raises enough doubt to swerve them at odds-on.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The best bet might be Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9620/21 - better odds than are available for a United win but just as well signposted by the stats.
United had nine out of 13 over 2.5 goals away to teams below them last season and no opponent in that category managed to shut them out. In fact, you have to go back to Norwich in November 2012 to find a team from outside the top seven (the big six plus Everton) that has stopped them scoring on the road.
That is a run of 22 games in that category and United have scored at least twice in 16 of them, which puts over 2.5 goals well within reach.
Sunderland are capable of adding to the total, too, as one of their standout stats under Poyet is the fact that they scored in 14 of their 16 league games against last season's top-half teams.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9620/21 (1pt)
No comments:
Post a Comment