Match Previews 
/ Geoffrey Riddle / 24 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
England look laboured under Lancaster but they are winning
"England have rewarded handicap backers on the main line in four of the last five occasions they have been considered outsiders at home."
Geoffrey Riddle assesses the stats to see if England can upset the odds against a rampant Wales ...
• England's starting XV is their most inexperienced line-up in the Championship since the 1989 match against Ireland - seven of the starting XV boast three caps or fewer.
• England may have dominated possession and territory against Italy a fortnight ago, but they only made one line break.
• Wales' last win at Twickenham was a 26-19 victory in 2008. Their last victory at Twickenham before that day was an 11-3 win in 1988.
• Wales were the last team to score a try against England in the second half of a match. They scored one in Cardiff in mid-August following two at Twickenham in their 23-19 defeat a week previously.
• As an illustration of the perceived fortunes of both sides since that summer double header, when Wales played England in London, Martin Johnson's side were considered 13-point favourites.
• The last eight times Wales have been favourites away from home, and not on neutral turf at the World Cup, they have rewarded handicap backers on the main line only two times - against Scotland in 2009 when winning 26-13 and against USA when winning 48-15 in the same year.
• England have been winners on the main handicap line against Wales in four of the last five encounters. England have also rewarded handicap backers on the main line in four of the last five occasions they have been considered outsiders at home.
• England coach Stuart Lancaster has gambled by bringing in Manu Tuilagi at outside centre, with Owen Farrell starting at fly-half in place of Charlie Hodgson, who is injured. Toby Flood is on the bench while Lee Dickson and Ben Morgan start at scrum half and No.8 in place respectively of Ben Youngs and Phil Dowson.
• Wales have made three changes to the side that defeated Scotland 27-13 a fortnight ago. Sam Warburton replaces Aaron Shingler at open side flanker. Ken Owens comes in at hooker in place of the injured Huw Bennett while Alun Wyn Jones makes his first start in the Championship since losing to France last year which means Ryan Jones drops to the bench.
• England lost two scrums and three lineouts against Italy. Wales's primary attacking platform during the World Cup was off the lineout, which highlights the significance of the return of Alun Wyn Jones.
• Of the 94 matches in the Six Nations where teams ranked higher by the IRB have hosted lower-rated opposition, the away side has won just 15.
Preview
Wales may appear to have a decent chance improving their poor record at Twickenham in the Six Nations against England on Saturday, but they look a skinny price to win only their third match in London in 24 years.
Warren Gatland's side are gunning for a quick-fire Triple Crown with victories over Ireland and Scotland in the bag and are priced at just [1.7] on Betfair to record their 20th such trophy.
Wales have not been good value on the main handicap line away from Cardiff in recent seasons, and despite England's performances both under Stuart Lancaster and Martin Johnson looking laborious, the fact remains that they are still winning matches - 12 of their last 15.
The perception of England does not match their effectiveness and considering England are still rated higher in the world rankings than Wales at present that always presents value opportunities.
Admittedly, without the charge-down capabilities of Charlie Hodgson, it is difficult to see how England, judge on this seasons' efforts, are going to cross the tryline but, with Manu Tuilagi in the mix and Owen Farrell given the chance to run the show at fly-half, things should be different.
Wales and England have a similar approach in that they wear teams down and strike in the second half counting on superior fitness levels. I have mentioned in the past two rounds both team's excellent scoring records after the break as well as their sharp defensive abilities - these two sides could tackle each other to a standstill for the entire 80 minutes.
As such the total points market looks pitched too high and it is easy to see why in the early liquidity the 'unders' are priced at 1.7. New Zealand and South Africa are the only visiting teams to have scored more than 20 points at Twickenham since 2009 and with England looking unlikely to reach that level either, your investment should be fairly safe.
Recommended Bet (1-5pt staking plan)
2pts under 41.5 total points
1pt lay Wales @ [1.7]
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