BNP Paribas Masters 2014 Betting: Raonic's superb tie break form to continue against Berdych

"Each of their last two meetings featured a set one tie break and unless one succumbs to scoreboard pressure or has a poor service game it seems likely again today."

Back Raonic to win set one 7-6 at 6.5n/a

It's semi final Saturday at the BNP Paribas Masters and after landing a big-priced winner yesterday, Sean Calvert is back with his selections for today...

It was a profitable day of tennis betting on Friday at the BNP Paribas Masters nice and early when Kevin Anderson won the opener of his match against Tomas Berdych.

My 3.7511/4 chance landed when Anderson won set one on the tie break and that proved to be the right wager to side with the South African in, as he rather predictably went on to lose from a break up in the decider.

That meant that Berdych qualified for the World Tour Finals and also qualified on the day were Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic, who surprisingly defeated Roger Federer in straight sets.

We start at 1.30pm UK time on Saturday, with an intriguing fourth career meeting between Berdych and Raonic.

This pair met here last year in the third round, when Berdych was a 7-6, 6-4 winner, but Raonic was a winner in the two before that and is a 1.845/6 favourite today.

Both players should be a fair bit more relaxed today having qualified for the O2 and as the odds suggest it's a tight one to call, with the winner likely to be the one who serves the better.

Raonic was very good yesterday against Federer in arguably the performance of his career, hitting 21 aces and winning 65 percent of points on his second serve - stats that will surely see him win today if he manages to repeat them.

Berdych has been scratchy all week, doing just enough each round to get through and not impressing in any of them, so I'm leaning towards the Canadian in this one.

The Czech may well show better form with the pressure of O2 qualification behind him though and it could pay to go with a tie break opening set here at a bigger price.

Raonic is much more likely to win it if it does reach a breaker, with Berdych weighing in with a really poor 9-16 (36%) win mark in tie breaks this year and he's lost the two he's played in Bercy this week.

Milos has been very good in breakers this week, winning all three and holding a 39-12 (76%) win mark in them in 2014.

Each of their last two meetings featured a set one tie break and unless one succumbs to scoreboard pressure or has a poor service game it seems likely again today.

The 6.5n/a that's available about a 7-6 set one win for Raonic looks the one here, or the 1.845/6 about the Canadian winning for more circumspect punters is the other option.

Recommended Bet
Back Raonic to win set one 7-6 at 6.5n/a

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BNP Paribas Open Men's Betting: Out of form Querrey worth taking on in Indian Wells

"Big Sam's results and the manner of his performances have been very poor lately and his often brittle confidence must be at a low ebb after losses to the likes of James Ward, Alex Bogomolov and Albert Ramos lately."

Back Kuznetsov +3.5 games to beat Querrey at 1.84/5

The tennis action in the Californian desert begins in earnest on Thursday, with the start of the men's first round at the BNP Paribas Open and Sean Calvert selects the best bets...

There are 16 first round matches scheduled for today at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden, with play beginning at 7pm UK time.

Conditions here always play on the slow side for a hard court due to the gritty, Plexipave surface that fluffs up the balls and leads to the kind of high bounce that Rafa Nadal loves to encounter.

There's no Rafa today, but there are several opportunities for punters on Thursday, starting with a chance to take on the out of form Sam Querrey.

Big Sam's results and the manner of his performances have been very poor lately and his often brittle confidence must be at a low ebb after losses to the likes of James Ward, Alex Bogomolov and Albert Ramos lately.

He also dropped a set to world number 647 Tigre Hank in Acapulco in his only win since Melbourne and he faces Alex Kuznetsov at around 5am UK time tomorrow, who defeated Querrey in their most recent meeting on a hard court in Dallas a couple of years ago.

Kuznetsov is coming off the back of a good run in Memphis on indoor hard where he beat David Goffin and Mikhail Kukushkin and the +3.5 games on the handicap or lay of Querrey 2-0 look the options here.

At the more palatable time of around 9pm in the UK there's another clash of two American's between Michael Russell and Donald Young and I like the idea of backing the veteran vest-wearer in this one.

Russell has a pretty good record of 7-4 here at Indian Wells and the lack of pace in the courts should suit the more consistent player and Young's flashy style may not the best in these conditions.

The older American has won four of the last five and seven of their 11 match-ups and after a good run in Memphis, where he beat Lleyton Hewitt, Russell has endured tough three set losses to Radek Stepanek and John Isner and this looks a good opportunity to get back to winning ways.

Finally I like the idea of taking a chance on Dusan Lajovic at a tempting 2.56/4 against the often wildly errant Lukas Rosol when they meet for the first time at around 10.30pm UK time tonight.

The 23-year-old Serbian has broken into the top-100 recently and is on the upgrade, which he proved again in qualifying here with two wins achieved without dropping serve once and Rosol may also find it tough to break him.

Rosol is currently 68th on the list of return games won in 2014 - one ahead of John Isner - so he's unlikely to break often against a man in a good serving groove so the +2.5 games on Lajovic at 1.8 appeals here, as does the outright on the Serb.

As far as shorter-priced favourites are concerned today I like Santiago Giraldo and Lleyton Hewitt as the most reliable-looking two on Thursday.

Recommended Bets
Back Kuznetsov +3.5 games to beat Querrey at 1.84/5
Back Russell to beat Young at 1.9520/21
Back Lajovic +2.5 games to beat Rosol at 1.8

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WTA BNP Paribas Open Betting: Red hot Barthel to slam Sam

"Runner-up in Hobart this year, and victorious at the Paris Masters a few weeks ago, Mona Barthel could well be the most in-form player on the tour right now. She's already beaten three of the world's top ten this year and could make it four tonight by defeating Sam Stosur."

It's the last 16 for the Women in Indian Wells with all eight games being played tonight. While Victoria Azarenka is still undefeated in 2013, she showed us last night that even the most consistent of players can have their off nights by dropping the first set before rallying to win in three. That minor blip will be no great cause for concern and she remains the stand out tournament favourite at evens.

The top eight seeds all survived last night and joining the elite are some relative newcomers to the scene; Muguruza-Blanco, Arruabarrena-Vecino, Barthel, and Urszula Radwanska, who is fast stepping out of the shadow of big sister Agnieszka. Urszula upset American Jamie Hampton last night, she's in good form and will relish the challenge of turning over the world number two, more so considering she was beaten by Azarenka at this very tournament in their only previous meeting two years ago. 

Lara Arruaberrena-Vecino will have her work cut out against Maria Sharapova. While I am a fan of LAV and feel that she can go far, it's hard to look past the Russian tonight. This is the biggest match of Arruaberra's career, the first time she has made it to the last 16 of a Masters event, and only the third time that she has faced a top ten player (she lost convincingly on both other occasions). It will be interesting to see how the young Spaniard fairs against one of the most ruthless players on the tour, probably just one for the notebook.

Sara Errani became the first player yesterday to reach twenty wins on the WTA tour this year. Her stellar performances of 2012 have been well documented but many predicted she would not be able to back it up this year. Yet as a finalist of Dubai on hard court and of Paris indoors already this campaign she has cemented her place in the world's top ten and proven she is much more than just a clay-court specialist. For this matchup she opened up at 1.645/8 and the early money has pushed her price down but I will be opposing this.

Her opponent tonight, Marion Bartoli, attracts frequent criticism for her unorthodox playing style and furthermore her unhealthy appearance but since she broke into the top twenty six years ago she has been one of the most consistent players on the tour and her record at Indian Wells is extremely impressive. Errani in contrast has never gone past the third round.

Bartoli now has new coach Jana Novotna behind her and 2013 could be a good year for the Frenchwoman. I like Bartoli in this match up and will be backing her to win at 2.588/5.

At twenty two years old and at a peak ranking of 27 Mona Barthel is proving to be every bit the player she promised to be when she won her maiden WTA title in Hobart last year. Runner-up in Hobart this year, and victorious at the Paris Masters a few weeks ago, Mona Barthel could well be the most in-form player on the tour right now. She's already beaten three of the world's top ten this year and could make it four tonight by defeating Sam Stosur.

German tennis is enjoying a purple patch, Angelique Kerber rocketed up the rankings last year and blazed a trail for fellow Germans Goerges, Lisicki, Beck (current junior French Open champion), and Barthel. Should she defeat Stosur tonight, Barthel sets up a potential quarter-final clash with good friend, compatriot, and current world number six Kerber and this is just the motivation she needs.

First time opponents of Barthel (like Stosur tonight) are always caught off-guard at how good she really is, and at how little time she gives them to react to her vicious ground-strokes. Most of the time all they can do is stand and watch her hit winner after winner, which is exactly what happened to Ivanovic last night. Barthel is the real deal, she will be in the top ten within a year, it should be closure for Stosur tonight.

Recommended Bets
Marion Bartoli to beat Sara Errani @ 2.588/5
Mona Barthel to beat Sam Stosur @ 1.68/13

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