French Football 
/ James Eastham / 09 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Nene (centre) has been Ligue 1's outstanding player this season
"Rennes’ home record is a disappointing W4-D5-L1 and Sochaux’s away record is W1-D5-L5. The fact Rennes have won fewer than half their home games and Sochaux have avoided defeat in more than half their away games indicates the hosts’ price should be nearer to evens."
After three successful bets last weekend James Eastham picks out the smartest selections from France's matchday 23.
Nice v PSG (18th v 1st) Sunday, 16:00 GMT
Nice are Ligue 1's poorest attacking side right now. They could have played for hours without scoring against Montpellier (0-1) a fortnight ago, and it was a similar story when they went out of the French Cup on penalties after two goalless hours against Rennes (21 Jan). Last weekend they grabbed a late equaliser at Ajaccio (1-1) but that goal was the result of the sort of defensive error they won't be handed every week.
PSG are so talented they can score freely without even playing well. That's what happened against Evian last weekend (3-1 win) and has occurred many times this season. The individual brilliance of their multi-faceted squad, and in particular Nene, Ligue 1's player of the season so far, is driving the club towards their first title since 1994.
Nice have a solid home record (W4-D4-L3) but the gulf in class between these sides is so great I expected to find PSG (6/10 away wins) odds-on. Take the evens about an away win.
Valenciennes v Nancy (12th v 14th) Saturday, 14:00 GMT
These two sides are among 10 (Ajaccio, Evian, Brest, Caen, Sochaux, Auxerre, Nice and Dijon being the others) facing a relegation dogfight but are two of the best-equipped to stay out of the bottom three. Valenciennes are becoming more clinical in the penalty area, while Nancy's new signings Sebastien Puygrenier (out this weekend) and Yohan Mollo have added vital quality at either end of the pitch. Nancy players have said training has improved in recent weeks, younger team members are making progress and coach Jean Fernandez is one of the wiliest in the business.
Goals are the order of the day. Nancy will be vulnerable without Puygrenier, while Nancy scored three times at Auxerre (3-1) in their last away game and have three outstanding counter-attacking footballers in Mollo, Daniel Niculae and Lossemy Karaboue.
Back Both Teams to Score at [2.06] or Over 2.5 Goals at [2.36].
Rennes v Sochaux (6th v 20th) Saturday, 20:00 GMT
Looking at the league table, you might wonder why bottom-club Sochaux are worth an investment this weekend. But a closer look at the facts reveals Rennes are much too short to win at [1.50].
Rennes' home record is a disappointing W4-D5-L1 and Sochaux's away record is W1-D5-L5. The fact Rennes have won fewer than half their home games and Sochaux have avoided defeat in more than half their away games indicate the hosts' price should be nearer to evens than it is.
Rennes struggle because of their counter-attacking style: against sides that are well-organised and defend in great numbers the Bretons are often frustrated. And Sochaux's recent away performances suggest they are well-equipped to upset the home side: on January 14 they defended excellently before succumbing to a late set-piece at St Etienne (0-1) before gaining a well-deserved point at Lorient (1-1) a fortnight ago.
Consider backing the draw at [4.2], although I prefer the safety net of Sochaux +1.0 on the Asian handicap. This way, you will win if Sochaux win or the game ends in a draw, get your money back if Sochaux lose by a single goal and lose only if Sochaux lose by two goals or more.
Best Bet: PSG to win at Nice @ [2.00].
Other Recommended Bets: Sochaux +1.0 Asian handicap at Rennes @ [2.05]; Valenciennes v Nancy Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.36].
James Eastham has made 43.93pts profit from 302pts staked on Ligue 1 since 2008 (14.5% ROI).
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